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Why We Will Never Be Good

That is a new one. The sky has already caved in. Is that is so, ND cannot be saved. Why then do you care?

By sarcastically stating "the sky is falling!" (a common idiom indicating a hysterical or mistaken belief that disaster is imminent) every time someone has a legitimate gripe with the way the program is being ran...you are essentially telling the poster that they are being irrational/illogical/wrong, and you've been doing it for at least the 10 years I've been posting.

I guess my point is; how many more national championship-less decades/failed notre dame seasons before you stop using this one?
 
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ND, despite being 4-8 last year, still had a positive point differential (e.g. they outscored the entirety of their schedule +37 in points). I wrote an entire post about this here: https://notredame.forums.rivals.com/threads/notre-dame-point-differential-kelly-vs-weis-vs-willingham.99559

In their 8 defeats, only 1 game was decided by more than 1 possession.

Because of these two factors, despite their 4-8 record, ND still finished as the 29th ranked team in college football using the combined S&P+ & FEI ratings ranking system used at FootballOutsiders.com: http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/fplus

The rating/formula is explained below:
Beginning with Football Outsiders Almanac 2009, Brian Fremeau and Bill Connelly, originators of Football Outsiders' two statistical approaches -- FEI and S&P+, respectively -- began to create a combined ranking that would serve as Football Outsiders' 'official' college football rankings.

The Fremeau Efficiency Index (FEI) considers each of the nearly 20,000 possessions every season in major college football. All drives are filtered to eliminate first-half clock-kills and end-of-game garbage drives and scores. A scoring rate analysis of the remaining possessions then determines the baseline possession efficiency expectations against which each team is measured. A team is rewarded for playing well against good teams, win or lose, and is punished more severely for playing poorly against bad teams than it is rewarded for playing well against bad teams.

The S&P+ Ratings are a college football ratings system derived from both play-by-play and drive data from all 800+ of a season's FBS college football games (and 140,000+ plays).

The components for S&P+ reflect the components of four of what Bill Connelly has deemed the Five Factors of college football: efficiency, explosiveness, field position, and finishing drives. (A fifth factor, turnovers, is informed marginally by sack rates, the only quality-based statistic that has a consistent relationship with turnover margins.)
None of these stats or formulas change Notre Dame's 4 and 8 record from last year or the fact that ND is an 8 to 9 win program over the last 20 years. Also doesn't change the fact that several teams have beaten ND with far less talent. Most programs in the country do not have equal talent of Saban coached Alabama(a program stuck in the mud for years after Stallings retired with terrible hires until they hired Saban), Meyer coached teams, or consistent top 5 programs but that is no excuse for not having a respectable program or for losing lesser talented teams.
 
None of these stats or formulas change Notre Dame's 4 and 8 record from last year or the fact that ND is an 8 to 9 win program over the last 20 years. Also doesn't change the fact that several teams have beaten ND with far less talent. Most programs in the country do not have equal talent of Saban coached Alabama(a program stuck in the mud for years after Stallings retired with terrible hires until they hired Saban), Meyer coached teams, or consistent top 5 programs but that is no excuse for not having a respectable program or for losing lesser talented teams.

My point is that when you look at NDs 2016 season with more granularity -- ND played much closer to their level of talent than their 4-8 record suggests that they did.
 
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By sarcastically stating "the sky is falling!" (a common idiom indicating a hysterical or mistaken belief that disaster is imminent) every time someone has a legitimate gripe with the way the program is being ran...you are essentially telling the poster that they are being irrational/illogical/wrong, and you've been doing it for at least the 10 years I've been posting.

I guess my point is; how many more national championship-less decades/failed notre dame seasons before you stop using this one?

They are being irrational. You are almost always irrational. Time after time after time, you complain about the recruiting. Yet, we still manage to lose again and again to teams with lesser talent than we do.
 
ND, despite being 4-8 last year, still had a positive point differential (e.g. they outscored the entirety of their schedule +37 in points). I wrote an entire post about this here: https://notredame.forums.rivals.com/threads/notre-dame-point-differential-kelly-vs-weis-vs-willingham.99559

In their 8 defeats, only 1 game was decided by more than 1 possession.

Because of these two factors, despite their 4-8 record, ND still finished as the 29th ranked team in college football using the combined S&P+ & FEI ratings ranking system used at FootballOutsiders.com: http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/fplus

The rating/formula is explained below:
Beginning with Football Outsiders Almanac 2009, Brian Fremeau and Bill Connelly, originators of Football Outsiders' two statistical approaches -- FEI and S&P+, respectively -- began to create a combined ranking that would serve as Football Outsiders' 'official' college football rankings.

The Fremeau Efficiency Index (FEI) considers each of the nearly 20,000 possessions every season in major college football. All drives are filtered to eliminate first-half clock-kills and end-of-game garbage drives and scores. A scoring rate analysis of the remaining possessions then determines the baseline possession efficiency expectations against which each team is measured. A team is rewarded for playing well against good teams, win or lose, and is punished more severely for playing poorly against bad teams than it is rewarded for playing well against bad teams.

The S&P+ Ratings are a college football ratings system derived from both play-by-play and drive data from all 800+ of a season's FBS college football games (and 140,000+ plays).

The components for S&P+ reflect the components of four of what Bill Connelly has deemed the Five Factors of college football: efficiency, explosiveness, field position, and finishing drives. (A fifth factor, turnovers, is informed marginally by sack rates, the only quality-based statistic that has a consistent relationship with turnover margins.)

So what ND was ranked 29th by some formula. This shows more about the coaching. Wins and losses matter.
 
ND has way more talent than Duke collectively over the last 5 years ... and has a way better resume during that same time period as well.

Point being: YES a lesser talented team can beat a more talented team in a single game -- this happens every saturday in college football (small sample size)... but when you expand the sample size to several seasons (e.g. much more games, much larger sample size) the correlation between a program's recruiting success and winning percentage are much stronger.


But, that is exactly it; ND is not recruiting in a different aisle in '17 and defensively the difference for the past 3 sessions is not that great. The talent grab for ND is just not once it once was.

And, did you realisticalky look over the defensive roster available in '17?
What defensive position group do you consider strongest? on a scale 1-10 what is the experience level of that group?
Is your group opinion off actual performance or 'projection'?
 
Making the playoffs is fine if that's what being "good" is. Winning a national championship is an extreme long shot without much improved recruiting. I agree with IIO that player development is epically pathetic at ND. There is no physical domination like you see at other schools. I see very little signs of football obsession like was seen in the Holtz days. There is clear signs of terrible S&C (which is the most underrated of all coaching positions by far). My point remains the same. ND needs to recruit at the level of Clemson, OSU, FSU, and Alabama to win a championship. If making the playoffs is "good" then I think we can do that once a decade and have a Washington like showing.
 
So for those who are interested in the real dynamics of winning in football, here are the real reasons why ND is where they are, compared to teams that they out recruited.

1. Coaching. You need top flight coaching in all 3 elements, at that the same time. When ND played elite defense under Diaco, the offense was mediocre under the offensive staff. Even still they played for a title. As their offense improved under a better offensive staff, their defense and special teams regressed under BVG and Booker.

2. Strength and conditioning. In a sport where 1 or 2 players can be the difference in recruiting between you and the class ranked under you or ahead of you, the difference is going to be how many players you develop from each class, and how many players whose potential is maximized over their 3 to 5 years to build good teams. ND has been behind in strength, conditioning and nutrition for years. It has to be taken deadly seriously to compete among the elite. Top recruits become average recruits among their peers over time if they don't improve each year. Stars go out the window as soon as you step onto campus.

3. Roster retention. Flat out, ND failed to retain far too many DL and DB's it recruited, therefore, development could not occur. You cannot lose all your WDE to transfer (for example) and have your DB's transferring and getting kicked out, or recruiting doesn't matter. You can bring in the best players in the country, but if the they aren't on the field, it doesn't matter. When you lose all these games by a TD or less and you are without expected starters or key reserve seniors, Steve Elmer, Corey Robinson, Max Redfield, Devin Butler, Torii Hunter (soft) etc, etc for non-injury related reasons, it makes a damn difference. More on that in a minute.

4. Position specific recruiting. ND has had solid classes, but they've had holes where they whiff at particular positions. The difference between ND and some of the classes ranked behind them that have had more success is that those teams filled their roster spots and needs and developed the hell out of lesser players, to create strong, overall units. Who do you want? A 4th or 5th year senior DE with 4-5 years in a proper strength program and defensive system, or a 4 star sophomore with potential, but only 1 winter in the strength program, and 1 full year in the system? If you can't land Alabama type DL every year, you better land some quality 3 and low 4 star guys and develop to hell out of them, retain them, and have a plan for them... See Clemson who just won a Natty with eight, 3 stars starting, many of whom were on defense.

5. ND is ****ing soft and some of its key players over the past few years don't live and breathe football like their opponents do. Not going to sugar coat it. You want a prime example of that? Find me the players at the other schools who made the the playoffs were a would be senior OL and captain candidate quit football before his senior year for a non football related job opportunity. ****that. Steve Elmer is getting called out. ND's weakest OL spot last year was RG, the spot he vacated and was groomed to play for several years. You want to win football games, don't recruit kids like Steve Elmer, who holds football as a secondary interest or hobby. While you're at it, tell Corey Robinson to kick rocks as well. Yes I'm highly impressed with the kid as a person, but he's a millionaire already. Football isn't that important to him. That's why he can quit early because of concussions. So instead of having a senior Captain (and ND's top returning pass catcher), wide receiver playing against USC, you have a career backup Corey Holmes out there dropping passes, before transferring out a couple months later. While they are at it, you can take Torii Hunter Jr with you. Another soft, millionaire, who cares more about baseball. Team Captain my ass. Wouldn't play through a hamstring that he was worried would carry onto baseball season. This was ND's leader at WR, the same kid who passed on his 5th year, an opportunity to be a repeat captain (an honor at ND) and a chance to play to be drafted in the NFL, for a longshot career in baseball. Why? Because he never has to work in his entire life if he doesn't want to, because his old man was a gold glover and a fine ball player... Some people are going to give me the "that's what makes ND different" BS, but **** that. That's what gets you 4-8. With key players, at key positions, who are seniors, leaders and captains, quiting on their team, because they don't love football. You have to love it man. You have to love each other and you have to go on that 4 year journey focused and single-minded. When it's done you move on with life and broaden your interests, but you have to live and breathe it.

Holtz didn't have kids like Corey Robinson, who were off to Oxford and President of the student body. No, he had kids like Tim Brown, a well spoken gentlemen, a fine student athlete, and a football obsessed college and NFL hall of famer, a Heisman Trophy and Biletnikoff winner and the he embodiment of a Notre Dame man. A ruthless competitor on the field and ND man you would be happy to call your son-in-law off the field. He had guys like Todd Lyght, an impressive man, who is extreme gentleman, but an alpha male in every way. Holtz recruited football obsessed winners, who were passionate and well rounded and wanted to be good at everything they do. They would run through a brick wall for him and their teammates, not quit on them the second a better opportunity came up.

That's what's missing for ND to be in annual playoff conversation. Not starpower.... We have to wake the hell up. When you are backed into a corner in which your only chance is to succeed, or to fail, human instinct drives you towards success. ND needs kids who put their whole future on football and use that awesome degree as as backup option, not the other way around.

Great post. The Irish need players who treat football like a religion. Corey Robinson brought the Admiral for everyone to gawk at but after two years of hard work he gave the middle finger to football to become a politician (Like we need more of that). There is one billionaire son I like though. Nicco Fertita. Fertita likes to hit people ! We need more of that !!!!!
 
You've been using this same line ironically since 2007 (when i started posting here)

The sky isn't falling, it already fell a long time ago.

Well, if you believe the sky has already fallen, I guess there's really no point in you following ND and posting here any longer.
 
Chase,

I accounted for the defections you speak of when I talked about retention. I have absolutely no doubt that ND's horrible season last year was a byproduct of not only poor coaching, but terrible retention and development. It has been a major failure during the Kelly era. There wasn't a competitive team in the nation last year that was routinely starting or giving key minutes to 7 true freshman and 11 first time players on defense. Just ludicrous for a program like ND to be doing that. Had Notre Dame functioned as other programs do from a retention perspective, the starting roster (injuries aside) would look liked this in 2016.

QB: DeShone Kizer (JR)
RB: Tarean Folston (SR)
W: Corey Robinson (SR)- gave up football.
X: EQ St. Brown (SOPH)
Z: Torii Hunter Jr (SR)- softest captain I've seen.
TE: Aliz'e Jones (SOPH)- Academics. Not an issue elsewhere.
LT: Mike McGlinchey (SR)
LT: Quenton Nelson (JR)
C: Sam Mustipher (JR)
RG: Steve Elmer (SR)- Quit football.
RT: Alex Bars (JR)

WDE: Romeo Okwara (SR)- Should have been playing for draft status.
NG: Jarron Jones (5th)
DT: Eddie Vanderdoes (SR)- Screwed off post signing day.
SDE: Isaac Rochell (SR)
WILL: Te'von Coney (SOPH)
MIKE: Nyles Morgan (JR)
SAM: James Onwualu (SR)
CB: Cole Luke (SR)
FS: Max Redfield (SR)- Kicked out after fall camp.
SS: Prentice Mckinney (SOPH)- Bailed at the 11 hour 39 minute mark.
CB: Devin Butler (SR): Arrested and kicked out.

Not having those 9 players is easily the difference between winning and losing games by a touchdown. Factor in the injuries to guys like Crawford and Watkins in the secondary and the defection / forced retirement of basically every pass rusher ND recruited for 3 years and that's how you get 4-8 when paired with bad defensive coaching.

Every program has defections, but not like. Not to key starters and some of the most talented players on the roster. Other schools lose kids to transfer who aren't playing, ND loses way you too many players they have developed and invested time in, and others who bail at the last second, leaving them high and dry on signing day or shortly thereafter.

The roster I posted above is one that would have been a 9-11 win team. A far cry from 4-8.

ND and Brian Kelly have to do better. Yes recruiting could be a little bit better, but it isn't the primary issue. They'very recruited better than 4-8. Much friggen better. They need to develop guys and keep them around.
 
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Ohio Staye was an average team Igor 3 1/2 decades between NCs ... then they won twice in 15 years and suddenly they are this untouchable juggernaut? Same with USC and Alabama who had decades of mediocrity. Dame with Texas.
ND can and likely will rise again. A great QB is the first key.
 
It's not about the sky falling. I'm content with 9 win seasons. You go ahead and root for national titles and live in fantasy land. I'll take an Orange Bowl win here or there versus a beatable oponent. I think our ceiling is a 2016 FSU sort of year. I will still have fun watching ND be pretty respectable every few years. Just tone down the expectations irrational fans.
I'm nearly in line with you. I think given ND's self-imposed sanctions there is no way they are going to be among CFB elite. I think they should be able to win 10 games most year. That's 3 losses either in regular season or 2 in regular and one bowl. So I have lowered my expectations a lot but Kelly failed to even meet my lowered expectations.
 
My point is that when you look at NDs 2016 season with more granularity -- ND played much closer to their level of talent than their 4-8 record suggests that they did.

Link: https://notredame.forums.rivals.com/threads/why-we-will-never-be-good.103656/page-2#post-1910862
Completely disagree. They could not tackle at all. Turnover problems. Terrible RZ conversion. No running game at all. Dropped passes. Blown coverage and/or missed assignments nearly every play. Stupid coaching decisions every single game.

This team played exactly how a 4-8 team plays
 
Ohio Staye was an average team Igor 3 1/2 decades between NCs ... then they won twice in 15 years and suddenly they are this untouchable juggernaut? Same with USC and Alabama who had decades of mediocrity. Dame with Texas.
ND can and likely will rise again. A great QB is the first key.

Close, but not there. In each and every instance there was a coaching change and the coach that took over players wanted to come play for him. They wanted to be coached by him. They wanted to be lead by him. They did not come for the school, although in some instances it had an impact. They came to be lead by a real leader and coach. Kelly is a fraud. A D2 coach that has fooled his boss and has used gimmicks that worked at lower levels to propel himself to his current position. Until the culture of mediocrity is cleaned, both at the team level and more importantly at the administration and BOT level expect many more years of...meh.
 
recruiting is just :(

If Kelly doesn't return in 17 or 18, the next Head Coach is facing a mess similar to the one Charlie Strong walked into.
 
My previous post really wasn't directed at you personally. But I can understand why you'd self identify as if it was.

Ya knowI left out a word 'recruiting ignorance'; and this go around that is the only way not to feel disappointed the way things are transpiring. And with recruiting it is not like a bad play, a deficient class lasts 4 years.
 
I think this is thinking we all heard in the early 1980's. Guess what happen in 1988.

And I'm sure it is the same think ND fans heard in 1963..

The sky is falling, the sky is falling.

Faust had top ranked classes. I don't think ND can beat the top guys but plenty of schools we should be beating.
 
Ya knowI left out a word 'recruiting ignorance'; and this go around that is the only way not to feel disappointed the way things are transpiring. And with recruiting it is not like a bad play, a deficient class lasts 4 years.

So to clarify, you're saying I'm ignorant because I don't whine endlessly about recruiting?
 
We may recruit from a different aisle than the top 5 teams but we have been coaching from a different one too.
This!

That explains 4-8. Not sure why it's difficult for some posters to understand that poorly coached kids will lose to inferior opponents?!

Our losses to inferior talent doesn't even out the gap between ND and Clemson or Bama. This is not a one size fits all situation. Last I checked Bama and Clemson coaches were doing pretty ok.

ND ceiling once every 25 years is the 2012 season. Period. I see no evidence to show otherwise. What is the last team with solid academics to win a national title? Notre Dame. It ain't the 80's no more. This modern era is different and it's too much for some to deal with.
 
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So to clarify, you're saying I'm ignorant because I don't whine endlessly about recruiting?


I am saying you are ignoring an interesting aspect related to your chosen football team. Recruiting is a game within a game. You choose to ignore it and others choose to take an interest. But you hurl insult at any discussion of something you seem ignorant of.
 
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I think this is thinking we all heard in the early 1980's. Guess what happen in 1988.

And I'm sure it is the same think ND fans heard in 1963..

The sky is falling, the sky is falling.
88 only happened because of coaching change...
 
I am saying you are ignoring an interesting adpect related to your chosen football team. Recruiting is a game within a game. You choose to ignore it and others choose to take an interest. But you hurl insult at any discussion of something you seem ignorant of.

Thanks for translating. I never would have gotten all that from "ignorance is bliss." I plead guilty to poking fun at those that endlessly revel in a state of despair or encourage Notre Dame fans to get used to mediocrity.
 
Thanks for translating. I never would have gotten all that from "ignorance is bliss." I plead guilty to poking fun at those that endlessly revel in a state of despair or encourage Notre Dame fans to get used to mediocrity.


when you want to analyse how the state ND football got where it is today then recruiting is at least 1/2 the answer; the other half is the Staff.
 
There's massive financial motive for ND and all of their partners to keep their fans' head in the sand regarding the talent disparity. Which is why NDs local group of writers that rely on access to ND, and rely on massive fan support WANT TO perpetuate the idea that the program is fine/healthy - and only a coaching change away from perennial contention again. THEY NEVER DISCUSS just how badly other programs are out recruiting ND right now and have been for much of the 21st century.

ND is a 2nd/3rd tier program in college football right now because they can only attract 2nd & 3rd tier athletes. This is a fact. You are not going to compete with the perennial powers in college football when they have 5 first round draft picks to your 1 every year.
Would have to agree. If we look at the lead stories about who is thrilled by ND offers on the front page for the past weeks, all of them are 3*. Fine young men I'm sure but 3* is not 5*.
 
when you want to analyse how the state ND football got where it is today then recruiting is at least 1/2 the answer; the other half is the Staff.

Recruiting success is heavily dependent on the Staff. Elite recruiting involves a lot of ego stroking for recruits and their parents, which it seems our last several head coaches and defensive coordinators were not particularly well equipped or inclined to do. We've had some position coaches with the required stroking skill set, but the head coach and his coordinators set the tone.

That said, I don't think there is anything inherently problematic with Notre Dame as an institution that prohibits better recruiting.

I do wonder about Notre Dame's ability to attract proven head coaching talent. With an eye toward the future, I would like to see Kelly bolt for an NFL (or any) job after next season and leave behind a program that a talented coach knows he can build on. The University has given Kelly plenty of support and a lot of things he's wanted (fake grass, moving study session to the Gug, an (arguably) more relaxed attitude from Res Life, improved pay for his assistant coaches) that should help improve the attractiveness of the position for future coaches. I think it would be good if Notre Dame can make a transition without it being the death knell for yet another head coach. That said, I think Swarbrick needs to be quietly, but relentlessly, searching for Kelly's replacement, and I hope he does so as soon as he finds an interested upgrade.
 
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Looking at where the elite talent has gone in'17 and then that even ND's plan B targets basically were polite but it was 'thanks, no thanks' and now even Plan 'C' targets are looking for any alternative than ND.
What in the world has happened? I just don't think this is just all the effects of 1 poor season.
Seems, Football has become a 'Major', and it is not offered at ND.
 
Looking at where the elite talent has gone in'17 and then that even ND's plan B targets basically were polite but it was 'thanks, no thanks' and now even Plan 'C' targets are looking for any alternative than ND.
What in the world has happened? I just don't think this is just all the effects of 1 poor season.
Seems, Football has become a 'Major', and it is not offered at ND.

Or is it that our "Dead man coaching" HC doesn't fool any recruit anymore. This is what a program in decay looks like. No one wants any part of it.
 
Or is it that our "Dead man coaching" HC doesn't fool any recruit anymore. This is what a program in decay looks like. No one wants any part of it.


Death spiral = decay? More of the usual "sky is falling" nonsense for which this poster is known.
 
Or is it that our "Dead man coaching" HC doesn't fool any recruit anymore. This is what a program in decay looks like. No one wants any part of it.

Then why do you keep following it, fraud? Nothing happening on the Indiana board today?
 
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