Notre Dame 'point differential' (Kelly vs Weis vs Willingham)

[chaseball]

Point differential is a better indicator of a team's performance than their actual win-loss record. It takes into account all points scored by Notre Dame minus the amount of points they gave up vs every opponent on their schedule ... thus expanding the sample size of the team's performance and giving us a better idea of just how well they performed holistically.

This idea really touches on the point that Kelly made in a recent press conference. Paraphrasing: "In my 25+ years of coaching I've never had this many 1 possession games that I ended up on the losing side of". And based on the overall point differential of the 2016 team up to this point, he makes a valid observation. His 2016 team, despite their 4-7 record, have a point differential that is on par with his 2014 & 2013 squads that went 8-5 & 9-4 respectively.

Looked at in this way, a team's point differential can show how much 'luck' played a factor into their overall record. Sometimes it's extremely good luck (like Willingham's 2002 season ... or really bad luck like Kelly's 2011 season or to a lesser extent this 2016 season). Had ND had a few more high leverage/clutch situations go there way in 2016 .. they very likely would have at least 2 more wins right now.

Here is NDs point differential over the last 15 seasons ... these seasons correspond with the Willingham/Weis/Brian Kelly eras at Notre Dame:

Year: Point Differential (Actual Record)
2016: +55 (4-7) - represents 11 games ... there's still a game left vs USC as a 17+ point underdog that can have a sizable impact on NDs final point differential.
2015: +132 (10-3)
2014: +48 (8-5)
2013: +63 (9-4)
2012: +169 (12-1)
2011: +111 (8-5)
2010: +98 (8-5)
(The Brian Kelly Era)

This confirms what I thought regarding those first two seasons under Brian Kelly. Especially that 2011 team. Remember all of those backbreaking red zone turnovers despite the team marching up and down the field? That was a really good football team despite their 8-5 record.

Those first 3 seasons under Brian Kelly were by far the best Notre Dame football we've seen in the last 15 years.

Another item worth pointing out is that after 3 of NDs best seasons in the last 15 years or so (2010, 2011, 2012) the program has been consistently merely 'above average' with 3 of BKs worst seasons coming in the last 4 years. I think this has a lot to do with recruiting ... as those 2010, 2011, 2012 seasons came off the back of Charlie Weis' exceptional trio of recruiting classes in 2006/2007/2008 -- a level of consistent elite recruiting Brian Kelly has never been able to match.

Year: Point Differential (Actual Record)
2009: +50 (6-6)
2008: +33 (7-6)
2007: -148 (3-9)
2006: +93 (10-3)
2005: +149 (9-3)
(The Charlie Weis Era)

It's interesting that in 4 of Kelly's 7 years at Notre Dame, his team's have had a higher point differential than Weis' 2006 BCS campaign. In my opinion, there's no larger indicator as to the difference of quality between these two coaches. Kelly is on another level.

Year: Point Differential (Actual Record)
2004: 0 (6-5)
2003: -72 (5-7)
2002: +73 (10-3)
(The Ty Willingham Era)

Dumpster fire. ND should never have a point differential below zero .. in 2 of 3 Willingham seasons there were nearly 2 instances of them. Also, his 2002 season was extremely lucky.

The full picture:

Year: Point Differential (Actual Record)
2016: +55 (4-7)
2015: +132 (10-3)
2014: +48 (8-5)
2013: +63 (9-4)
2012: +169 (12-1)
2011: +111 (8-5)
2010: +98 (8-5)
----
2009: +50 (6-6)
2008: +33 (7-6)
2007: -148 (3-9)
2006: +93 (10-3)
2005: +149 (9-3)
----
2004: 0 (6-6)
2003: -72 (5-7)
2002: +73 (10-3)

 

[DieHard_Irish]

Point differential can be a better indicator of a team's performance than their actual win-loss record. It takes into account all points scored and given up thus expanding the sample size of the team's performance and giving us a better idea of it.

This idea really touches on the point that Kelly made in a recent press conference. Paraphrasing: "In my 25+ years of coaching I've never had this many 1 possession games that I ended up on the losing side of"

And based on the overall point differential of the 2016 team up to this point, he makes a valid observation. His 2016 team, despite their 4-7 record, have a point differential that is on par with his 2014 & 2013 squads that went 8-5 & 9-4 respectively. Looked at in this way, a team's point differential can show how much 'luck' played a factor into their overall record. Sometimes it's good luck (like Weis' 2006 season or Willingham's 2002 season ... or really bad luck like Kelly's 2011 & 2016 seasons).

Had ND had a few more high leverage/clutch situations go there way in 2016 .. they very likely would have at least 2 more wins right now.

Here is NDs point differential over the last ~ 15 years: These numbers include bowl games. This 2016 season represents 11 games ... (still have a game vs USC as a 17 point underdog and a possible bowl game)

Year: Point Differential (Actual Record)
2016: +55 (4-7)
2015: +132 (10-3)
2014: +48 (8-5)
2013: +63 (9-4)
2012: +169 (12-1)
2011: +111 (8-5)
2010: +98 (8-5)
(The Brian Kelly Era)

This confirms what I thought regarding those first two seasons under Brian Kelly. Especially that 2011 team. Remember all of those backbreaking red zone turnovers despite the team marching up and down the field? Those first 3 seasons under Brian Kelly were by far the best Notre Dame football we've seen in the last 15 years.

Another observation is that after 3 of NDs best seasons in the last 15 years or so (2010, 2011, 2012) the program has been consistently merely 'above average' with 3 of BKs worst seasons coming in the last 4 years. I think this has a lot to do with recruiting ... as those 2010, 2011, 2012 seasons came off the back of Charlie Weis exceptional recruiting classes in 2006/2007/2008 -- a level of recruiting Brian Kelly has never been able to match.

Year: Point Differential (Actual Record)
2009: +50 (6-6)
2008: +33 (7-6)
2007: -148 (3-9)
2006: +93 (10-3)
2005: +149 (9-3)
(The Charlie Weis Era)

It's interesting that in 4 of Kelly's 7 years at Notre Dame, his team's have had a higher point differential than Weis' 2006 BCS campaign. In my opinion, there's no larger indicator as to the difference of quality between these two coaches. Kelly is on another level.

Year: Point Differential (Actual Record)
2004: 0 (6-5)
2003: -72 (5-7)
2002: +73 (10-3)
(The Ty Willingham Era)

Dumpster fire. ND should never have a point differential below zero .. in 2 of 3 Willingham seasons there were nearly 2 instances of them. Also, his 2002 season was extremely lucky.

The full picture:

Year: Point Differential (Actual Record)
2016: +55 (4-7)
2015: +132 (10-3)
2014: +48 (8-5)
2013: +63 (9-4)
2012: +169 (12-1)
2011: +111 (8-5)
2010: +98 (8-5)
2009: +50 (6-6)
2008: +33 (7-6)
2007: -148 (3-9)
2006: +93 (10-3)
2005: +149 (9-3)
2004: 0 (6-6)
2003: -72 (5-7)
2002: +73 (10-3)

Point differential means absolutely nothing. Opponent strengthen of schedule is never the same, and this years schedule is a really a joke, and we still stink

 

[chaseball]

Point differential means absolutely nothing. Opponent strengthen of schedule is never the same, and this years schedule is a really a joke, and we still stink

Point differential is a more granular look of a team's performance than their simple won-loss record. So point differential would have to be AT LEAST as meaningful/substantive as looking at the team's won loss record.

I'm not defending Brian Kelly in this post ... even though the data/observations that I make may seem like that is the intent. I think Brian Kelly needs to go, and have been one of the biggest proponents of that idea for the last several years ... (mostly because he is unable to attract the level of talent necessary to get to and win play off games). Otherwise, I think his coaching/player development/leadership are good enough to get ND there... we just don't have the horses and he's unable to attract them.

 

[sshulk]

Kelly better than Weis is like saying a broken arm hurts less than a broken leg

 

[perseverare]

who was funnier? Mo, Larry or Curley?

 

[chaseball]

Had ND had a normal amount of fortune (instead of a ton of bad fortune) they would be right on par with a typical ~7 win Brian Kelly season, with the potential for an 8th win during a bowl game.

I guess the broader point I'm trying to make is that this team's 2016 performance really isn't as terrible as it looks. We can come to that conclusion even without Strength of Schedule -- as so much of the perception of the performance of the team comes down to what their win loss record is. And as poor as this schedule has been in 2016 ... if the team had a typical 7 or 8 win season there would be a less degree of frustration from the fan base and probably less people calling for the coaches head after every game.

Another caveat to consider is how inexperienced this 2016 team is -- and that's a fact. It's easy to conclude that the team will perform even better next season from a point differential standpoint as these freshmen mature .. how that shakes out in terms of wins/losses is anybody's guess .. as so much of football can come down to luck/how the ball bounces any given play. Unless of course you are one of the modern powers in college football with as much as 2 to 3 times more talent than the team lining up against them any given Saturday.

This doesn't mean Kelly should be retained, as 7 or 8 wins at a program with NDs money, prestige, etc. is a joke, and he hasn't really done anything to demonstrate he's capable of taking the program to the next level consistently.