The Brian Kelly era (This data says it all)

[chaseball]

F/P+ ranking is Football Outsider's ranking system of all 130+ FBS teams. In college football, even an entire 12 game season is considered a very small sample size (e.g. not enough game's being played to really distinguish who the best teams are). As a result, looking at a team's won loss record isn't the best indicator of how well that team stacks up. This F/P+ ranking system sets out to solve that issue by evaluating a team's performance at the play by play level. The system also factors in opponent quality and omits performance during garbage time.

I've already written a lot on the topic of F/P+ but if you want more detail on how the ranking system works, please view their site here: https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/fplus

The two metrics in the image below are the most holistic/simple way of evaluating a head coach at a football program. It's his recruiting class ranking (which indicates future success) and his F/P+ ranking which evaluates his team's performance during that particular season. Both numbers represent how a team ranks relative to all 130+ teams in the FBS.

Brian Kelly's career results:

• In his 9 year career at Notre Dame, Brian Kelly's final F/P+ ranking averages out to 16th in the country. His Average recruiting class ranking as per 24/7 composite is 12th.
• In his last 5 years: his average final F/P+ ranking is 17th, and his average composite recruiting class ranking is 13th.
• In his last 3 years: average final F/P+ ranking is 15th, and average composite recruiting class is 12th.

This is why the ND football program is so damn stale. No matter how you break this data down, there's really no upward trend. Despite the ND narrative that BK/ND reinvented itself after their poor 2016 season, that narrative doesn't really bear-out in the actual data.

And despite the exciting 12-1 record in 2018, when you look at the more granular data and look at Brian Kelly over any chunk of time, the results are *extremely* clear. You are going to get a 15th ranked football program, and a recruiting class that finishes around the same.

Given NDs fan support, wealth, brand power, etc. there has to be more ambition on part of ND leadership than this. Where is the motivation on their part to match their fan's endless loyalty and support? Do they not even realize that this data exists?

Total = average per year
L5 = average last 5 years
L3 = average last 3 years
REC = 247 final composite class ranking
F/P+ = final team performance ranking

 

[echowaker]

BLAH,BLAH,BLAH,BLAH,BLAH..............

 

[echowaker]

F/P+ ranking is Football Outsider's ranking system of all 130+ FBS teams. In college football, even an entire 12 game season is considered a very small sample size (e.g. not enough game's being played to really distinguish who the best teams are). As a result, looking at a team's won loss record isn't the best indicator of how well that team stacks up. This F/P+ ranking system sets out to solve that issue by evaluating a team's performance at the play by play level. The system also factors in opponent quality and omits performance during garbage time.

I've already written a lot on the topic of F/P+ but if you want more detail on how the ranking system works, please view their site here: https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/fplus

The two metrics in the image below are the most holistic/simple way of evaluating a head coach at a football program. It's his recruiting class ranking (which indicates future success) and his F/P+ ranking which evaluates his team's performance during that particular season. Both numbers representing how a team ranks relative to all 130+ teams in the FBS.

Brian Kelly's career results:

• In his 9 year career at Notre Dame, Brian Kelly's final F/P+ ranking averages out to 16th in the country. His Average recruiting class ranking as per 24/7 composite is 12th.
• In his last 5 years: his average final F/P+ ranking is 17th, and his average composite recruiting class ranking is 13th.
• In his last 3 years: average final F/P+ ranking is 15th, and average composite recruiting class is 12th.

This is why the ND football program is so damn stale. No matter how you break this data down, there's really no upward trend. There's no massive post 2017 differences in the data. It's all the same monotony year in and year out of a Brian Kelly lead Notre Dame football team.

And despite the exciting 12-1 record in 2018, when you look at the more granular data and look at Brian Kelly over any significant chunk of time, the data is *extremely* clear. You are going to get a 15th ranked football program, and a recruiting class that finishes around 12th.

My questions to the fan base:

• Would any other blue blood/super wealthy program in Notre Dame's tier support this endless mediocrity ? And if not,
• why does ND continue to ?
• Who is making decisions that is keeping this head coach indefinitely extended/employed at Notre Dame ?
• Is Notre Dame football just resigned to the fact that this is the best they can amount to?

Total = average per year
L5 = average last 5 years
L3 = average last 3 years
REC = 247 final composite class ranking

the powers that be at ND appear to be perfectly content with the performance of the head football coach given the administrative policies in place. if you're not i suggest ( and beg quite frankly ) that you move your allegiance to a team and its fan base that just might enjoy your continued dead horse beatings.

 

[chaseball]

the powers that be at ND appear to be perfectly content with the performance of the head football coach given the administrative policies in place. if you're not i suggest ( and beg quite frankly ) that you move your allegiance to a team and its fan base that just might enjoy your continued dead horse beating.

I just want ND to win a national title again. And there are some crystal clear indicators that they aren't any closer with Brian Kelly at head coach but yet they don't make any changes. The "ND administrative policies" is a lame excuse. Do you think if Saban, Kirby Smart, Dabo Swinney, Urban Meyer or Jimbo Fisher were to take over at ND tomorrow they would not be topping the class ranking leaderboards here as well?

 

[napy2121]

This is literally the least stale, most successful point in time of his tenure. Fact.

 

[echowaker]

I just want ND to win a national title again. And there are some crystal clear indicators that they aren't any closer with Brian Kelly at head coach but yet they don't make any changes. The "ND administrative policies" is a lame excuse. Do you think if Saban, Kirby Smart, Dabo Swinney, Urban Meyer or Jimbo Fisher were to take over at ND tomorrow they would not be topping the class ranking leaderboards here as well?

no. you don't seem to understand that those guys don't want to work at a place with those parameters in place. it's why Urban Meyer didn't come to ND. The vast majority of elite level players are looking to the NFL in the shortest time frame possible with the path of least resistance. ND is not that. Thats the reality like it or not. You're not being realistic about the situation at all. there are a lot of quality players that ND doesn't even bother to recruit because they have no chance getting in with the policies in place.

 

[twalsh]

F/P+ ranking is Football Outsider's ranking system of all 130+ FBS teams. In college football, even an entire 12 game season is considered a very small sample size (e.g. not enough game's being played to really distinguish who the best teams are). As a result, looking at a team's won loss record isn't the best indicator of how well that team stacks up. This F/P+ ranking system sets out to solve that issue by evaluating a team's performance at the play by play level. The system also factors in opponent quality and omits performance during garbage time.

I've already written a lot on the topic of F/P+ but if you want more detail on how the ranking system works, please view their site here: https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/fplus

The two metrics in the image below are the most holistic/simple way of evaluating a head coach at a football program. It's his recruiting class ranking (which indicates future success) and his F/P+ ranking which evaluates his team's performance during that particular season. Both numbers represent how a team ranks relative to all 130+ teams in the FBS.

Brian Kelly's career results:

• In his 9 year career at Notre Dame, Brian Kelly's final F/P+ ranking averages out to 16th in the country. His Average recruiting class ranking as per 24/7 composite is 12th.
• In his last 5 years: his average final F/P+ ranking is 17th, and his average composite recruiting class ranking is 13th.
• In his last 3 years: average final F/P+ ranking is 15th, and average composite recruiting class is 12th.

This is why the ND football program is so damn stale. No matter how you break this data down, there's really no upward trend. Despite the ND narrative that BK/ND reinvented itself after their poor 2012 season it doesn't really bear-out in the data.

And despite the exciting 12-1 record in 2018, when you look at the more granular data and look at Brian Kelly over any chunk of time, the results are *extremely* clear. You are going to get a 15th ranked football program, and a recruiting class that finishes around 12th.

I'm not the smartest guy in the world, but given NDs fan support, wealth, brand power, etc. there has to be more ambition on part of the ND leadership than this. Where is the motivation on their part to match their fan's endless loyalty and support?

Total = average per year
L5 = average last 5 years
L3 = average last 3 years
REC = 247 final composite class ranking

Don’t even you get tired writing of this stuff? I can assure you that the overwhelming majority of readers are tired of reading it.

 

[echowaker]

I just want ND to win a national title again. And there are some crystal clear indicators that they aren't any closer with Brian Kelly at head coach but yet they don't make any changes. The "ND administrative policies" is a lame excuse. Do you think if Saban, Kirby Smart, Dabo Swinney, Urban Meyer or Jimbo Fisher were to take over at ND tomorrow they would not be topping the class ranking leaderboards here as well?

it doesn't matter what you or i or any other fan wants. the decision makers appear quite content. thats where your complaints should be directed, not more cheap shots at a head coach who is performing his job to his bosses satisfaction.

 

[chaseball]

This is literally the least stale, most successful point in time of his tenure. Fact.

I posted his average numbers over his last 9 years, and over his last 3 years. The results are virtually identical.

 

[napy2121]

I posted his average numbers over his last 9 years, and over his last 3 years. The results are virtually identical.

Arbitrary cutoff but to extend your point let’s say.... we make it last 2 years. I think you get my point.

 

[echowaker]

I posted his average numbers over his last 9 years, and over his last 3 years. The results are virtually identical.

and the powers that be are quite content with the results.

 

[chaseball]

Arbitrary cutoff but to extend your point let’s say.... we make it last 2 years. I think you get my point.

I used 3 and 5 year chunks because the sample size is larger. But in his last 2 years the final F/P ranking is 8 and the final class ranking is 12.5. That's still pretty much in line with his career, there's really no massive upward trend there.

I'd even argue that Brian Kelly's first three seasons, back when he was still working with Charlie Weis' recruits was his best stretch of performance at Notre Dame. He averaged a #10 F/P+ during those first three years and a #10 recruiting class during that time.

 

[napy2121]

I used 3 and 5 year chunks because the sample size is larger. But in his last 2 years the final F/P ranking is 8 and the final class ranking is 12.5.
Eight is much better than 16th but it's still a long way from top 4 and the class ranking is virtually the same.
I'd even argue that Brian Kelly's first three seasons, back when he was still working with Charlie Weis' recruits was his best stretch of performance at Notre Dame.

I assure everyone on this board that the chosen 3 year cut off has nothing to do with sample size (insignificant and small difference vs 2 year) and everything to do with making his faulty point because it includes BKs worst year in the sample.

In terms of staleness, that season seems like it was 100 years ago as far is I’m concerned. It is the only outlier of his tenure as well. Take it out of the sample entirely if you want to have a real discussion.

The fact remains, this is the least stale, most successful point in time in BKs tenure.

 

[Pennick4]

Football outsiders.... Lol.
ND is working on an extension and raise for BK.

 

[chaseball]

I assure everyone on this board that the chosen 3 year cut off has nothing to do with sample size (insignificant and small difference vs 2 year) and everything to do with making his faulty point because it includes BKs worst year in the sample.

In terms of staleness, that season seems like it was 100 years ago as far is I’m concerned. It is the only outlier of his tenure as well. Take it out of the sample entirely if you want to have a real discussion.

The fact remains, this is the least stale, most successful point in time in BKs tenure.

I'd take brian Kelly's #10 recruiting class and #10 f/p+ three year stretch from 2010-2012 over his last two seasons but it's close. I guess that's my point. Despite the narrative that ND/Brian Kelly has turned a new leaf and everything is going in the right direction now, when you break down the numbers, there really is nothing different going on. His last two years are better than the two years prior but they are not much better than his first three years. It's all kind of just the same. Which is why i used the word 'stale'.

 

[echowaker]

I'd take brian Kelly's #10 recruiting class and #10 f/p+ three year stretch from 2010-2012 over his last two seasons but it's close. I guess that's my point. Despite the narrative that ND/Brian Kelly has turned a new leaf and everything is going in the right direction now, when you break down the numbers, there really is nothing different going on. His last two years are better than the two years prior but they are not much better than his first three years. It's all kind of just the same. Which is why i used the word 'stale'.

the powers that be are quite happy.

 

[napy2121]

I'd take brian Kelly's #10 recruiting class and #10 f/p+ three year stretch from 2010-2012 over his last two seasons but it's close. I guess that's my point. Despite the narrative that ND/Brian Kelly has turned a new leaf and everything is going in the right direction now, when you break down the numbers, there really is nothing different going on. His last two years are better than the two years prior but they are not much better than his first three years. It's all kind of just the same. Which is why i used the word 'stale'.

How about this, let’s be reasonable and wait one year. Compare first three/last three, and revisit?

I’d argue that the new staff (OC/DC) is part of the “turned a new leaf” theory as much as the results on the field.

 

[chaseball]

How about this, let’s be reasonable and wait one year. Compare first three/last three, and revisit?

I’d argue that the new staff (OC/DC) is part of the “turned a new leaf” theory as much as the results on the field.

We already have three separate three year stretches to look at though. His 2013-2015 performance is near virtually identical to his 2016-2018 performance. His 2010-2012 performance is the best three year chunk of data on record at the moment. How many more three year chunks of ho-hum performance do we need ? No matter how you slice up the data there's nothing that indicates some major breakthrough is imminent.

 

[napy2121]

And if I’m being honest, I measure bottom line success by only wins and losses. Yea I want to better understand how we can win better and strength of oponnent and the things f/p+ tells one, but I reject as the final determinant that would allow anyone to rate year 1-3 better than his last two.

By the ultimate measure, the fact remains we are currently in the most successful point in time of BKs tenure.

 

[napy2121]

We already have three separate three year stretches to look at though. His 2013-2015 performance is near virtually identical to his 2016-2018 performance. His 2010-2012 performance is the best three year chunk of data on record at the moment. How many more three year chunks of ho-hum performance do we need ? No matter how you slice up the data there's nothing that indicates some major breakthrough is imminent.

Read my most prevoius point on ultimate measure of success, but regardless we should wait until next year and remove the outlier from the sample.

 

[d1042]

BLAH,BLAH,BLAH,BLAH,BLAH..............

Yes, we all already knew this. For some, it is fine. For others, it is not good enough.

So? where do we go from here?

 

[chaseball]

Yes, we all already knew this. For some, it is fine. For others, it is not good enough.

So? where do we go from here?

We need change. From ND administrative staff to a new coach to a new athletic culture altogether. It's the only way. Until then, ND football remains the biggest has been in sports.

 

[napy2121]

We need change. From ND administrative staff to a new coach. It's the only way. Until then, ND remains the biggest has been in sports.

An ND message board is the only place an otherwise reasonable minded person would call for change after going 12-1. No AD in the world, I can confidently say, would fire a coach after going 10-3 then 12-1. But muh f/p+ y’all. I tried to argue in good faith but now I can see you won’t.

 

[NDSMC78]

We need change. From ND administrative staff to a new coach to a new athletic culture altogether. It's the only way. Until then, ND football remains the biggest has been in sports.

Change to a "new athletic culture altogether"? What do you mean by this? And how do you propose to accomplish it?

 

[echowaker]

We need change. From ND administrative staff to a new coach to a new athletic culture altogether. It's the only way. Until then, ND football remains the biggest has been in sports.

start the movement. refuse to post on message boards until real changes are made.

 

[chaseball]

start the movement. refuse to post on message boards until real changes are made.

 

[chaseball]

Change to a "new athletic culture altogether"? What do you mean by this? And how do you propose to accomplish it?

ND is a revenue leader in a multi billion dollar industry. They need to start acting like it.

• Hold poor coaches accountable for poor recruiting classes.
• INVEST in the best talent in the country.
• Have the best facilities in the country. Have the best coaching staff in the country. Go balls-out for the best athletes in the country.
• Accept nothing less.
• A player isn't pulling his weight on the field, revoke his scholarship.
• Be shrewd and forward thinking. Take chances even with no assurance there's an ROI. TIRED OF THIS PROGRAM PLAYING *EVERYTHING* SAFE. This program is ran like a 70 yr old yelling at kids to get off the lawn while talking about the good old days all the time.
• Hire the best coaches and give them the liberty to recruit the best athletes.
• Hire away the best talent on other programs. Fire them immediately if they don't hold their weight
• Spoil the hell out of the best talent in the country, treat them like the talented world class money making athletic-gods that they are.
• Give them endless clubhouse luxuries, make ND athletes the envy of college football among their peers.
• Give scholarships to hot cheerleaders.
• Spice shit up. Make headlines on ESPN. Do a gimmick like the turnoverchain. Do something remarkable in college football. Garner headlines. Differentiate. SOMETHING. ANYTHING but another garden variety brian kelly season. ANYTHING AT ALL. FOR THE LOVE OF GOD. DO SOMETHING!

 

[d1042]

Let’s not eat Liver, until Chase’s changes are made!

 

[NDSMC78]

I have to say that, in all my years of watching Notre Dame football, this is the first time I have ever seen anybody suggest that the football program could be improved by giving scholarships to hot cheerleaders.

You do realize that we are talking about Notre Dame, right?

Most of your proposals are generalities. How could ND, or any school, evaluate when "a coach doesn't live up to excellence?" What is excellence? 12-0? If so, we already have a coach "living up to excellence."

 

[twalsh]

ND is a revenue leader in a multi billion dollar industry. They need to start acting like it.

• Hold poor coaches accountable for poor recruiting classes.
• INVEST in the best talent in the country.
• Have the best facilities in the country. Have the best coaching staff in the country. Go balls-out for the best athletes in the country.
• Accept nothing less.
• A player isn't pulling his weight on the field, revoke his scholarship.
• Be shrewd and forward thinking. Take chances even with no assurance there's an ROI. TIRED OF THIS PROGRAM PLAYING *EVERYTHING* SAFE. This program is ran like a 70 yr old yelling at kids to get off the lawn while talking about the good old days all the time.
• Hire the best coaches and give them the liberty to recruit the best athletes.
• Hire away the best talent on other programs. Fire them immediately if they don't hold their weight
• Spoil the hell out of the best talent in the country, treat them like the talented world class money making athletic-gods that they are.
• Give them endless clubhouse luxuries, make ND athletes the envy of college football among their peers.
• Give scholarships to hot cheerleaders.
• Spice shit up. Make headlines on ESPN. Do a gimmick like the turnoverchain. Do something remarkable in college football. Garner headlines. Differentiate. SOMETHING. ANYTHING but another garden variety brian kelly season. ANYTHING AT ALL. FOR THE LOVE OF GOD. DO SOMETHING!

So basically, chuck all the basic philosophies and traditions that actually make ND and ND football what it is, and what people respect about it? Because, whether you are willing to admit it, or not, that's exactly what you are saying.

 

[twalsh]

Let’s not eat Liver, until Chase’s changes are made!

I'll go for both liver and zucchini. They're dead to me.

 

[Pennick4]

Wow... You are losing your marbles. 12-1!
Great season.

 

[Scots-Irishballa]

Lol

“Let’s blind people with data and draw conclusions from it that don’t make any sense.”

 

[SIhoosier26]

I have to say that, in all my years of watching Notre Dame football, this is the first time I have ever seen anybody suggest that the football program could be improved by giving scholarships to hot cheerleaders.

You do realize that we are talking about Notre Dame, right?

Most of your proposals are generalities. How could ND, or any school, evaluate when "a coach doesn't live up to excellence?" What is excellence? 12-0? If so, we already have a coach "living up to excellence."

While I know Brian Kelly isn't getting fired,(Nobody fires a coach coming off a 12-1 season).

Are you not a little concerned that in almost a decade at Notre Dame Brian Kelly still hasn't even won a major bowl game? National titles used to be expected at Notre Dame and now nobody even seems to care if we are even competing for major bowls. It's sad how low the expectations have gone and that some of you aren't even a little disappointed by these horrific performances. I mean even mediocre football programs win major bowls now, this is Notre freaking Dame people!

 

[d1042]

Lol

“Let’s blind people with data and draw conclusions from it that don’t make any sense.”

that made no sense! we’re almost there!

 

[thehellyousay]

I'd take brian Kelly's #10 recruiting class and #10 f/p+ three year stretch from 2010-2012 over his last two seasons but it's close. I guess that's my point. Despite the narrative that ND/Brian Kelly has turned a new leaf and everything is going in the right direction now, when you break down the numbers, there really is nothing different going on. His last two years are better than the two years prior but they are not much better than his first three years. It's all kind of just the same. Which is why i used the word 'stale'.

how about back-to-back 10 win seasons (hasn't happened at ND since 92-93)? CFB palkyoff appearance? undefeated season? how is that not an upward trend? a win over LSU on NYD?

they'll start next year in the top 10 (#5 in ESPN way-too-early poll right now)...

 

[Scots-Irishballa]

While I know Brian Kelly isn't getting fired,(Nobody fires a coach coming off a 12-1 season).

Are you not a little concerned that in almost a decade at Notre Dame Brian Kelly still hasn't even won a major bowl game? National titles used to be expected at Notre Dame and now nobody even seems to care if we are even competing for major bowls. It's sad how low the expectations have gone and that some of you aren't even a little disappointed by these horrific performances. I mean even mediocre football programs win major bowls now, this is Notre freaking Dame people!

No I’m more concerned that we’re not going to pay Clark Lea, Chip Long the money we need to, to have some long term continuity in the program....

 

[Scots-Irishballa]

Everyone at ND wants to win, no one wants to pay the assistants like the ones who win pay the assistants....

In the end Notre Dames biggest hurdle is the fact we expect to win a thoroughbred race with a pinto.

 

[twalsh]

No I’m more concerned that we’re not going to pay Clark Lea, Chip Long the money we need to, to have some long term continuity in the program....

We can, and will, match what anyone else offers, within reason. Clark Lea has ONE year as a DC. If someone offers him $2 million, we're probably not doing that. If someone offers him $1 million, we probably do that. It has to make sense.

 

[SIhoosier26]

No I’m more concerned that we’re not going to pay Clark Lea, Chip Long the money we need to, to have some long term continuity in the program....

Clark Lea I agree he did great, Chip Long can go kick sand after that performance in the playoff. He was absolutely awful for a lot of the season.

You don't get a raise when you score 3 points in a playoff game, he should've been fired at halftime.