ND is still ranked 12th in F&P+ latest update (10-7-2019) with a 44.5% F&P+
https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/fplus/2019
This isn't good enough for ND to compete with playoff quality teams or be a regular playoff contender (top 5 or so).
ND has settled in nicely to a 10-15th program under Brian Kelly and there's no evidence anywhere that ND has anymore upside than this. NDs lack of quality recruiting is seriously capping the upside of the football program.
Congrats ND fans you have one of the worst blue blood programs in the FBS in modern college football (ranked somewhere really close to nebraska at the bottom) and if you take the best 2-3 programs from each power 5 conference, ND comes in somewhere towards the bottom percentile in 2019 somewhere inbetween Baylor Oregon Auburn and Central Florida.
Celebration time! Jubilation! Brian Kelly !!! woo hoo !! ND is BACK!!
The hunger for a coronation at ND is almost as intense as that of Sunni extremists for a rebirth of the old Caliphate. And it’s just as belief-driven. But anyone looking at ND objectively – and you have to be either non-partisan or post-partisan to do that – knows that the odds are still long.
Ergo, there’s a reason ND is ranked 10th. Most analytics and power rankings put them there. And it’s because all of the teams ahead of them are powerful enough to beat them. Whereas it would most likely take a flawless game and a lot of luck for ND to beat, say, Ohio State or Alabama.
I would argue that ND would also have extreme difficulty with Oklahoma, Wisconsin, Penn State and LSU. Surely, after watching any of those teams play, who could say that such an outcome wouldn’t be plausible? They’re potent and feature great play makers.
ND is one loss away from playoff consideration. And that’s in an absolute sense. Depending on how the season plays out, though, it may have already disqualified itself in Athens, allowing as it did double penetration into its backfield on the last play of the game, resulting in a schoolyard Hail Mary.
Should ND lose a second game – and analytics suggest that Michigan, Navy and Duke are all capable of mounting a fight – similar to Pitt and Northwestern last year – the rosy recent press coverage would be GONE. Lose the bowl game and those who've argued that
10-3 is ND’s ceiling, not its floor have won this year’s argument.
Plus, the press coverage would not only not be rosy, it’d be disdainful. So, be careful it’s all not a setup, with reversal of fortune the climax. If ND falters, those ESPN guys – now, so flirtatious – will POUNCE.
By the way USC, today, and Stanford at Palo Alto could also play spoilers as they have at least the athletes if not in USC’s case, the coach or experience; or in Stanford’s, the usual firepower.
As for schedule strength, ND’s is currently 55th, a reflection of Bowling Green and New Mexico. It will wind up stronger, but it’s by no means anything like what, to date, OSU or Auburn have had to deal with.
The reason ND has improved, while failing to become elite, is simple:
recruiting. It doesn’t have the play makers and when it does, seldom in sufficient numbers. Look at how Bama neutralized Manti Te’o. Look what Clemson did to ND’s O-line and, by extension, Book. And look at what Georgia twice did to ND’s run game.
And then look at what all three teams’ skill players did to ND.
The difference – and ALWAYS when it’s counted – has been clear.