It's Amazing what some really easy games on the schedule can do for the perception of the program

[chaseball]

ND is still ranked 12th in F&P+ latest update (10-7-2019) with a 44.5% F&P+

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/fplus/2019

This isn't good enough for ND to compete with playoff quality teams or be a regular playoff contender (top 5 or so).

ND has settled in nicely to a 10-15th program under Brian Kelly and there's no evidence anywhere that ND has anymore upside than this. NDs lack of quality recruiting is seriously capping the upside of the football program.

Congrats ND fans you have one of the worst blue blood programs in the FBS in modern college football (ranked somewhere really close to nebraska at the bottom) and if you take the best 2-3 programs from each power 5 conference, ND comes in somewhere towards the bottom percentile in 2019 somewhere inbetween Baylor Oregon Auburn and Central Florida.

Celebration time! Jubilation! Brian Kelly !!! woo hoo !! ND is BACK!!

 

[nemeth#5]

ND is still ranked 12th in F&P+ latest update (10-7-2019) with a 44.5% F&P+

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/fplus/2019

This isn't good enough for ND to compete with playoff quality teams or be a regular playoff contender (top 5 or so).

ND has settled in nicely to a 10-15th program under Brian Kelly and there's no evidence anywhere that ND has anymore upside than this. NDs lack of quality recruiting is seriously capping the upside of the football program.

Congrats ND fans you have one of the worst blue blood programs in the FBS in modern college football (ranked somewhere really close to nebraska at the bottom) and if you take the best 2-3 programs from each power 5 conference, ND comes in somewhere towards the bottom percentile in 2019.

Celebration time! Jubilation! Brian Kelly !!! woo hoo !! ND is BACK!!

Ok so to summarize we should focus only on this algorithm called F&P+? I imagine once we did move up to a top tier level in your nerdy formula there would be another formula you would cling to to push your agenda..... give me a break Chase.

The only thing that matters is wins and losses. And yes, we are due to win some bigger games but we are on the cusp and we are winning a lot.

Just stop with your FP+ bullsh*t dude..... its a song you keep playing that no one asked for or is listening to because it is worthless.

 

[NDlb46]

ND is still ranked 12th in F&P+ latest update (10-7-2019) with a 44.5% F&P+

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/fplus/2019

This isn't good enough for ND to compete with playoff quality teams or be a regular playoff contender (top 5 or so).

ND has settled in nicely to a 10-15th program under Brian Kelly and there's no evidence anywhere that ND has anymore upside than this. NDs lack of quality recruiting is seriously capping the upside of the football program.

Congrats ND fans you have one of the worst blue blood programs in the FBS in modern college football (ranked somewhere really close to nebraska at the bottom) and if you take the best 2-3 programs from each power 5 conference, ND comes in somewhere towards the bottom percentile in 2019.

Celebration time! Jubilation! Brian Kelly !!! woo hoo !! ND is BACK!!

Somebody put sandpaper on your toilet paper roll this morning? Sheesh. Lighten up Francis.

 

[chaseball]

I've been reading a ton of press and commentary lately about how good everything is in ND land, and i can't stand to see this narrative when nothing has really changed in the last 2/4/6/8 years.

A lot of celebration, satisfaction, and cheering for mediocre results.

The only thing that has changed is that ND has played 3 teams ranked between 70-130. Cupcake teams the majority of the P5 would embarrass. And Georgia kept its starters in for 4 quarters. Baby steps!

 

[NDSMC78]

ND is still ranked 12th in F&P+ latest update (10-7-2019) with a 44.5% F&P+

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/fplus/2019

This isn't good enough for ND to compete with playoff quality teams or be a regular playoff contender (top 5 or so).

ND has settled in nicely to a 10-15th program under Brian Kelly and there's no evidence anywhere that ND has anymore upside than this. NDs lack of quality recruiting is seriously capping the upside of the football program.

Congrats ND fans you have one of the worst blue blood programs in the FBS in modern college football (ranked somewhere really close to nebraska at the bottom) and if you take the best 2-3 programs from each power 5 conference, ND comes in somewhere towards the bottom percentile in 2019 somewhere inbetween Baylor Oregon Auburn and Central Florida.

Celebration time! Jubilation! Brian Kelly !!! woo hoo !! ND is BACK!!

No kidding. I could have sworn that we played UGA down to the last minute a mere month ago.

 

[88ND]

Somebody put sandpaper on your toilet paper roll this morning? Sheesh. Lighten up Francis.

He'll kill ya

 

[raulduke_007]

NCAA football is a trash product. The Super Conferences has reduced it to a bunch of regional sections playing one another week in & week out year after year.
Think about it were almost halfway through the season and there have been less than 10 games that you would call marquee match-ups. The only thing keeping CFB afloat is gambling.
The major sport talk shows are devouting less than 30 minutes a week to even talk about the sport. The only thing that will save CFB in the long run is a 32 team top tier league with relegation & promotion.

 

[napy2121]

I appreciate OPs dedication to trying to understand what he’s seeing more analytically. Though I will caution him and others not to over analyze or misinterpret the results. Particularly the latter, as somebody who builds models for a living, it is entirely frustrating to see someone misinterpret the results.

Anywho, I find it strange that Mizz jumped up a bunch of spots on the strength of a nice win over.... a very mediocre non P5 Troy. Now I’m not trying to undermine this model in particular, I do find that strange.

Also, blue bloods behind us: Texas, Michigan, and usc.

 

[raulduke_007]

ND's schedule in a 32 team would look something like this

OSU
Michigan
MSU
Bama
Auburn
LSU
Tenn
USC
Stan
Oregon
Ucla
Okla
Clemson

 

[88ND]

I've been reading a ton of press and commentary lately about how good everything is in ND land, and i can't stand to see this narrative when nothing has really changed in the last 2/4/6/8 years.

A lot of celebration, satisfaction, and cheering for mediocre results.

The only thing that has changed is that ND has played 3 teams ranked between 70-130. Cupcake teams the majority of the P5 would embarrass. And Georgia kept its starters in for 4 quarters. Baby steps!

Here's the difference between you and I...

You use some asinine magic potion formula riding around in a magic bus.

I just use the eye test.


This is where I see ND football in 2019

An elite defense that can play with anyone. The numbers are irrelevant. They create havoc, hit hard, swarm the football.

Offensively...

Still timid and robotic.
It's getting a bit better just by throwing crossing routes now and Kmet is a problem match-up for anyone.

We have no explosive players or explosive players being utilized enough.

We are at our best when we go super fast tempo which isn't used enough.

It's all about the difference makers.

We have a defense littered with difference makers all over the field (minus corner backs)

Offensively not enough. We have 1 difference maker. Kmet.

QB? No
RB? No
WR? No

I don't need some goofy computer formula to tell me some weird ranking.

I say goofy computer formula because even after Clemson beat Bama in the NC that weird ass computer program still had Bama ranked higher than Clemson.


All credibility obliterated right there!

 

[napy2121]

Let me also add, it’s not clear to me why any poster would take the position or feel it is their responsibility to counter balance what may be an otherwise happy fan base? I guess one may feel intellectually superior to point these things out I just find that approach sort of off putting. Whatever floats your boat I guess. The results on the field the last 2 plus years have been pretty doggone positive. I want a championship too, don’t get me wrong. But this is just beating a dead horse at this point. We get it you like to use someone else’s model and tamper what you perceive as out of control ND fans. We get it.

 

[nemeth#5]

I've been reading a ton of press and commentary lately about how good everything is in ND land, and i can't stand to see this narrative when nothing has really changed in the last 2/4/6/8 years.

A lot of celebration, satisfaction, and cheering for mediocre results.

The only thing that has changed is that ND has played 3 teams ranked between 70-130. Cupcake teams the majority of the P5 would embarrass. And Georgia kept its starters in for 4 quarters. Baby steps!

Nothing has changed in the last 2/4/6/8 years?! What? The last 3 years are going to be (from a win standpoint) one of the best 3 year stretches in decades! So you care more about a formula than wins is what you are saying? All credibility is gone.

 

[chaseball]

I'm not trying to be intellectually superior to anybody. ND is playing a much weaker schedule than normal right now and performing about where they have since 2017. These are 'good but not good enough' results. There's no way ND will win a national title in our lifetime if we maintain the status quo.

We need BETTER athletes. We need BETTER recruiting. We need a BETTER football team so that we can actually compete and win vs the teams at the top of the mountain.

WE ARE NOT CLOSE! THE GAP IS STILL WAY TOO BIG!

Stop praising mediocrity. DEMAND better!

 

[napy2121]

Fine. We’re not there yet. A point nobody would argue. Just how far off, I suppose is up for debate. Making the tourney last year is a data point to consider I guess, in just how close. We need to play better in those games. No doubt. The gap in just how wide is unclear, though we all see where you stand.

 

[chaseball]

Fine. We’re not there yet. A point nobody would argue. Just how far off, I suppose is up for debate. Making the tourney last year is a data point to consider I guess, in just how close. We need to play better in those games. No doubt. The gap is unclear, though we all see where you stand.

This is the whole point of F&P+ my friend.

It gives you that extra granularity to pinpoint how far off one team is from another.

Championship/elite caliber teams are in the 55% F&P+ range ...

ND has been in the mid 40% range since 2017. Their best season is still 2012 with Charlie Weis' upperclassmen from 2007-2008-2009 classes.

ND beats up on two FBS programs ranked in the 120s in 2019 (New Mexico and Bowling Green), along with a really bad Louisville team ranked in the 70s and suddenly I'm seeing nothing but puff pieces and praise about how good ND/Brian Kelly is and how everything is wonderful with the football program.

It just frustrates me when we have really good data points that are being virtually ignored that are showing that ND has made little to no progress over the last three years. But the narrative in the media and the fan base is saying the exact opposite.

Like composite class ranking (indicates the future) and composite talent ranking (indicates the present) and F&P+ (indicates in season performance) which just happen to be the best indicators in existence that are publicly available.

All of them point to the same thing: 10-15th program, little to no progress, a program that has capped its upside under this football coach, etc. etc. but nobody seems to care. The ND media and this fan base is still evaluating baseball pitchers by wins and losses.

There are way better measures available. Move the overton window to the point where I'm not the only damn one discussing them around here.

 

[napy2121]

This is the whole point of F&P+ my friend.

It gives you that extra granularity to pinpoint how far off one team is from another.

Championship/elite caliber teams are in the 55% F&P+ range ...

ND has been in the mid 40% range since 2017.

ND beats up on two FBS programs ranked in the 120s (New Mexico and Bowling Green), along with a really bad Louisville team ranked in the 70s and suddenly I'm seeing nothing but puff pieces and praise about how good ND/Brian Kelly is and how everything is wonderful with the football program.

It just frustrates me when we have really good data points that are still showing little to no progress that are being virtually ignored.

Like composite class ranking (the future) and composite talent ranking (the present) and F&P+ (in season performance) which just happen to be the best indicators in existence that are publicly available. All of them point to the same thing: 10-15th program, little to no progress, a program that has capped its upside under this football coach, etc. etc.

Ok, like I said we all see clearly where you stand and the info you’ve provided. I think it just shows fans place more value on wins than model results. That doesn’t mean that model isn't valuable or that fans don’t think it couldn’t be valuable. I’d like us to recruit better and to win a big game, I’m here with you. But I don’t think we’re as far off it as you. We don’t need to keep going around like this and posting this every week. Just saying.

 

[chaseball]

Ok, like I said we all see clearly where you stand and the info you’ve provided. I think it just shows fans place more value on wins than model results. That doesn’t mean that model isn't valuable or that fans don’t think it couldn’t be valuable. I’d like us to recruit better and to win a big game, I’m here with you. But I don’t think we’re as far off it as you. We don’t need to keep going around like this and posting this every week. Just saying.

So basically this is the matrix and you choose the blue pill and want to live blissfully ignorant?

 

[nemeth#5]

So basically this is the matrix and you choose the blue pill and want to live blissfully ignorant?

Do you really think Missouri and Baylor are better than ND because they have a higher rating? What happens if Missouri loses to Ole Miss tomorrow and their FP rating goes way down..... does that mean the FP was wrong? All it does is show the history and run it through a formula and spits outs a number.... it is not indicative of any future outcomes.... at all.

 

[88ND]

I'm not trying to be intellectually superior to anybody. ND is playing a much weaker schedule than normal right now and performing about where they have since 2017. These are 'good but not good enough' results. There's no way ND will win a national title in our lifetime if we maintain the status quo.

We need BETTER athletes. We need BETTER recruiting. We need a BETTER football team so that we can actually compete and win vs the teams at the top of the mountain.

WE ARE NOT CLOSE! THE GAP IS STILL WAY TOO BIG!

Stop praising mediocrity. DEMAND better!

Nobody is more critical of BK than I but this f+p-3+69+z+p ranking system is utterly ridiculous.

As I mentioned the sheer fact Bama was still ranked higher than Clemson after the loss is absurd.


Why is that?

Strebgth of schedules?


More absurdity.

The SEC has been the media darlings for the last 15 years. Bullshit and completely overrated.

They seldom play above the Mason Dixon line....play division 1AA teams...

They give too much credit to the SEC for playing a tough schedule that's false based only on trendy perception.

 

[napy2121]

So basically this is the matrix and you choose the blue pill and want to live blissfully ignorant?

We’re not even that far apart in our disagreement. But you’ve clearly stated your position and everyone has noted it, so thanks for that your opinion does matter. Not sure why you feel it’s your responsibility to tamper fan excitement it puts everyone in a weird position in this discussion. You don’t have to, you know? It’s this weird thing where you don’t seem capable of allowing fans to enjoy a win. Like hey, you can’t be happy! Don’t be that guy.

 

[chaseball]

Nobody is more critical of BK than I but this f+p-3+69+z+p ranking system is utterly ridiculous.

As I mentioned the sheer fact Bama was still ranked higher than Clemson after the loss is absurd.


Why is that?

Strebgth of schedules?


More absurdity.

The SEC has been the media darlings for the last 15 years. Bullshit and completely overrated.

They seldom play above the Mason Dixon line....play division 1AA teams...

They give too much credit to the SEC for playing a tough schedule that's false based only on trendy perception.

Almost every statement you make here runs contrary to reputable comprehensive analysis/studies/research on these topics. You are misinformed.

 

[chaseball]

Do you really think Missouri and Baylor are better than ND because they have a higher rating? What happens if Missouri loses to Ole Miss tomorrow and their FP rating goes way down..... does that mean the FP was wrong? All it does is show the history and run it through a formula and spits outs a number.... it is not indicative of any future outcomes.... at all.

It's indicative of future outcomes because past performance is the best predictor of future performance.

 

[SIhoosier26]

ND is still ranked 12th in F&P+ latest update (10-7-2019) with a 44.5% F&P+

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/fplus/2019

This isn't good enough for ND to compete with playoff quality teams or be a regular playoff contender (top 5 or so).

ND has settled in nicely to a 10-15th program under Brian Kelly and there's no evidence anywhere that ND has anymore upside than this. NDs lack of quality recruiting is seriously capping the upside of the football program.

Congrats ND fans you have one of the worst blue blood programs in the FBS in modern college football (ranked somewhere really close to nebraska at the bottom) and if you take the best 2-3 programs from each power 5 conference, ND comes in somewhere towards the bottom percentile in 2019 somewhere inbetween Baylor Oregon Auburn and Central Florida.

Celebration time! Jubilation! Brian Kelly !!! woo hoo !! ND is BACK!!

Dude are you even a Notre Dame fan? Comparable to Nebraska? Have you even watched them for the last 20 years?

We'll find out how good we are this year in the next few weeks.

 

[echowaker]

ND is still ranked 12th in F&P+ latest update (10-7-2019) with a 44.5% F&P+

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/fplus/2019

This isn't good enough for ND to compete with playoff quality teams or be a regular playoff contender (top 5 or so).

ND has settled in nicely to a 10-15th program under Brian Kelly and there's no evidence anywhere that ND has anymore upside than this. NDs lack of quality recruiting is seriously capping the upside of the football program.

Congrats ND fans you have one of the worst blue blood programs in the FBS in modern college football (ranked somewhere really close to nebraska at the bottom) and if you take the best 2-3 programs from each power 5 conference, ND comes in somewhere towards the bottom percentile in 2019 somewhere inbetween Baylor Oregon Auburn and Central Florida.

Celebration time! Jubilation! Brian Kelly !!! woo hoo !! ND is BACK!!

Must never actually watch the games. Hilarious.

 

[chaseball]

I've already explained the "Alabama over Clemson" topic a million times, but I'll take another stab at it.

F&P+ uses every single non garbage time play in its formula to evaluate the performance of a football team from week 1 through the final week of the season.

Alabama destroyed almost everybody on their schedule last year, until they ran into a Clemson team that beat them badly.

Based on the entire record though Alabama did enough over the course of their season to come in *slightly* higher than Clemson, DESPITE losing to them in one game.

If this was Vegas, DESPITE Alabama losing to Clemson BIG, Vegas would have Alabama as a *very* *slight* favorite in a hypothetical rematch. This also really drives home the point that in the scheme of things 1 game is a very tiny sample size and doesn't carry that much weight statistically.

Also, the formula isn't weighted. So F&P+ doesn't make any special adjustment for the fact that the first several games on Clemson's record were without Trevor Lawrence.

 

[nemeth#5]

It's indicative of future outcomes because past performance is the best predictor of future performance.

So... if you really follow this formula you really think that right now Missouri is better than Notre Dame? And if they lose the next 5 games.... and their rating goes down.... everything that the formula stands for today (present) is complete garbage lol.

You got sold some snake oil by some nerd with a formula..... if these algorithms worked, handicapping would be so easy.... you should be a millionaire by now?

 

[napy2121]

I just looked at Missouri’s schedule out of curiosity. Missouri lost to Wyoming in week 1. They jumped 5 spots this week after beating Troy (2-3).

To put this bluntly, would you rather be Missouri right now having a loss to Wyoming, or would you rather be ND with a lone loss to uga. I’m not asking who is better, or who the model says is better- just as a fan would you feel better about losing to uga or Wyoming and winning your other 4 games (none of which are remarkable wins for either team)?

 

[chaseball]

So... if you really follow this formula you really think that right now Missouri is better than Notre Dame? And if they lose the next 5 games.... and their rating goes down.... everything that the formula stands for today (present) is complete garbage lol.

You got sold some snake oil by some nerd with a formula..... if these algorithms worked, handicapping would be so easy.... you should be a millionaire by now?

These formulas "work" if the benchmark for "working" is being a lot more accurate at evaluating the quality of a team than simply looking at a team's win-loss record.

And as for Missouri, I'm not sure I would have them favored vs Notre Dame because there's a major talent disparity. But I think based on Missouri's high placement they are a much better team in 2019 than what is currently being perceived of them.

 

[chaseball]

I just looked at Missouri’s schedule out of curiosity. Missouri lost to Wyoming in week 1. They jumped 5 spots this week after beating Troy (2-3).

The formula isn't using wins and losses or the scoreboard at all. The formula has many components but one of the major components is how it evaluates teams at the play-by-play level.

There's a certain "average" expectation set based on the weekly performance of every team for every play. And depending on how well a team performs on a play against that average they either climb in points in the ranking system or lose points. Non-garbage-time stats are excluded entirely.

This is just one component of the formula among many others but hopefully it gives you some additional insight.

F&P+ is a combined comprehensive ranking system of two separate comprehensive ranking systems. It's combining "FEI" and "S&P+" to make F&P+.

 

[napy2121]

The formula isn't using wins and losses or the scoreboard at all. The formula has many components but one of the major components is how it evaluates teams at the play-by-play level.

There's a certain "average" expectation set based on the weekly performance of every team for every play. And depending on how well a team performs on a play against that average they either climb in points in the ranking system or lose points. Non-garbage-time stats are excluded entirely.

Don’t assume I don’t understand the model.

 

[nemeth#5]

These formulas "work" if the benchmark for "working" is being a lot more accurate at evaluating the quality of a team than simply looking at a team's win-loss record.

And as for Missouri, I'm not sure I would have them favored vs Notre Dame because there's a major talent disparity. But I think based on Missouri's high placement they are a much better team in 2019 than what is currently being perceived of them.

But they have a higher number than ND.... so according to your formula they are a better team right? Just like Alabama's is higher.

Yet you still think ND would be favored? Sounds like you dont completely buy it either.

 

[irishsportsfan]

@OP

Posts like these are why you aren’t taken seriously when I browse.

Get a grip.

 

[chaseball]

But they have a higher number than ND.... so according to your formula they are a better team right? Just like Alabama's is higher.

Yet you still think ND would be favored? Sounds like you dont completely buy it either.

We are only 5 or 6 games into the season. We are still early enough where there might be some teams placed in categories they don't belong due to high variance/small sample size. Any team that seems way out of place, this early in the season, I'd also use their "talent ranking" to see if they have staying power or if they might fall as the sample size grows. But after a certain point of results (as the sample size gets larger), I'd put way more weight on the results than a team talent ranking.

 

[nemeth#5]

We are only 5 or 6 games into the season. We are still early enough where there might be some teams placed in categories they don't belong due to high variance/small sample size. Any team that seems way out of place, this early in the season, I'd also use their "talent ranking" to see if they have staying power or if they might fall as the sample size grows. But after a certain point of results (as the sample size gets larger), I'd put way more weight on the results than a team talent ranking.

Ok so this only takes into account this season? So it really isnt solid until after the season is complete....... which makes it useless in my opinion..... anyone can look back after the fact and say here are the best/worst teams and here are some numbers to show why lol.

 

[88ND]

Almost every statement you make here runs contrary to reputable comprehensive analysis/studies/research on these topics. You are misinformed.

N
O....

If the perception is the SEC overall is just so heads and shoulders above the rest of the teams...

They get a huge ranking boost from a strength of schedule since they play each other.

I'm telling you that conference is good at the very top but the rest of the teams are highly overrated giving false SOS credit.


Just explain this...

Clemson goes undefeated...played a tough road game in college station... beat Bama solidly for the title....

Yet Bama finished ranked higher than Clemson.

Maybe the worst of the bunch...

Georgia who finished with 3 losses...

Gets absolutely man handled by Texas in the bowl.

Not even close. The score wasn't indicative of the actual game.

Texas finished with 10-4...
Georgia finished 11-3
Both their seasons ended head to head with a lopsided contest.

Yet they have Georgia ranked 31 spots ahead of Texas.

Thirty fukcing one spots.


Those two examples are all anyone needs to know to fully understand that S+p+-f... What the **** ever it's called is a total joke.

Total joke.

The AP poll is miles more accurate than that goofy thing...and that says a lot because the writers are seldom correct.

 

[napy2121]

We are only 5 or 6 games into the season. We are still early enough where there might be some teams placed in categories they don't belong due to high variance/small sample size. Any team that seems way out of place, this early in the season, I'd also use their "talent ranking" to see if they have staying power or if they might fall as the sample size grows. But after a certain point of results (as the sample size gets larger), I'd put way more weight on the results than a team talent ranking.

Fair level response-kudos. Given the small sample and point of the season, may I suggest maybe not being so difinitive/black/white in drawing conclusions then? Is that too unreasonable? I mean you accused me of blue pilling because I said OTHER fans finds Ws more important than the model, even after I said I didn’t entirely disagree with you about not being there yet.

 

[Catholicfan95]

ND is still ranked 12th in F&P+ latest update (10-7-2019) with a 44.5% F&P+

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/fplus/2019

This isn't good enough for ND to compete with playoff quality teams or be a regular playoff contender (top 5 or so).

ND has settled in nicely to a 10-15th program under Brian Kelly and there's no evidence anywhere that ND has anymore upside than this. NDs lack of quality recruiting is seriously capping the upside of the football program.

Congrats ND fans you have one of the worst blue blood programs in the FBS in modern college football (ranked somewhere really close to nebraska at the bottom) and if you take the best 2-3 programs from each power 5 conference, ND comes in somewhere towards the bottom percentile in 2019 somewhere inbetween Baylor Oregon Auburn and Central Florida.

Celebration time! Jubilation! Brian Kelly !!! woo hoo !! ND is BACK!!

I think that you make some really good points here, some are a little over the top, I have read the whole thread so I am just responding to IP, but in college football now I do not see any Power 5 programs playing a packed schedule year in and year out, especially not the 2 that have run the CFP (clemson n Bama). The FPI is a good way to guage want is going on, but I certainly do not feel like, within the algorithm, that certain criteria are as important as others. For example are we really going to say that beating a piss poor team by 50 means more than losing to a top 5 school? To me i just think that is ridiculous to have that 50 W weigh more than that good loss. Granted, I am not here for "baby steps" as you said nor am i looking for almost, but we are talking specifically about this FPI and when it comes down to it, that W is more than the L and to me that is just not at all right. We looked great against UGA and we showed we can play with any team in the country, so how is that going to be factored into the FPI? It just simply isnt.

So here is the thing, plain and simple....No one on here can refute that teams ranked in the top 5 FPI since the CFP started have gone on to either win or be in the playoff, so with that it is a very credible source. However, the FPI simply does not matter when it comes to this point in the year it just does not, nor can it signify where teams will end up at the EOY. The FPI is not something that, at least what I believe, is anything that someone who knows football, not saying you do not know or understand football I have given you credit here, carries a whole lot of weight when it comes TO WHO IS THE BEST TEAM IN THE COUNTRY. The FPI is merely a computer algorithm that has derived a lot of its knowledge from the BCS structure, which we can all agree on was and is still flawed.

Also my friend, and I am with you I would love to see the schedule toughened up a bit and with more big name games sure, but why would ND do this and hold itself to that standard if no other program or conferences are doing the same? Teams play, typically one HUGE OCG a year and it seems that everyone thinks if you win just that one game you are in. Well here is the thing, its true and that is what we have seen with the CFP. The committee is not asking anyone to play more than one big OCG a year, so for teams like Clemson who has a terrible conference it really helps their chances. Granted Clemson is also very good, but they are not challenged on a week to week basis with competition comperable to SEC or BIG10. So really, how can you even gauge the worth. The FPI? I do not buy it. ND's schedule is strong enough to get to the CFP we saw that last year, and our schedule this year is better than last.

 

[chaseball]

Fair level response. Given the small sample and point of the season, may I suggest maybe not being so difinitive/black/white in drawing conclusions then? Is that too unreasonable? I mean you accused me of blue pilling because I said OTHER fans finds Ws more important than the model, even after I said I didn’t entirely disagree with you about not being there yet.

Notre Dame was ranked 15th in talent ranking coming into the season.
They were projected 12th in S&P+ preseason projections heading into the year.
Their F&P+ through 5 games is ranked 12th.

Missour's team talent composite ranking is 40th.
Their S&P+ preseason projection is 16th (they have a ton of good returning production from last year which is responsible for this aggressive ranking).
Their F&P+ through 5 games is ranked 9th.

I put a lot of weight on S&P+ preseason projections so Missouri's F&P+ ranking isn't really that big of an outlier but I think they'll probably finish a lot closer to ~20th than ~10th by the time the season is through.

 

[chaseball]

I think that you make some really good points here, some are a little over the top, I have read the whole thread so I am just responding to IP, but in college football now I do not see any Power 5 programs playing a packed schedule year in and year out, especially not the 2 that have run the CFP (clemson n Bama). The FPI is a good way to guage want is going on, but I certainly do not feel like, within the algorithm, that certain criteria are as important as others. For example are we really going to say that beating a piss poor team by 50 means more than losing to a top 5 school? To me i just think that is ridiculous to have that 50 W weigh more than that good loss. Granted, I am not here for "baby steps" as you said nor am i looking for almost, but we are talking specifically about this FPI and when it comes down to it, that W is more than the L and to me that is just not at all right. We looked great against UGA and we showed we can play with any team in the country, so how is that going to be factored into the FPI? It just simply isnt.

So here is the thing, plain and simple....No one on here can refute that teams ranked in the top 5 FPI since the CFP started have gone on to either win or be in the playoff, so with that it is a very credible source. However, the FPI simply does not matter when it comes to this point in the year it just does not, nor can it signify where teams will end up at the EOY. The FPI is not something that, at least what I believe, is anything that someone who knows football, not saying you do not know or understand football I have given you credit here, carries a whole lot of weight when it comes TO WHO IS THE BEST TEAM IN THE COUNTRY. The FPI is merely a computer algorithm that has derived a lot of its knowledge from the BCS structure, which we can all agree on was and is still flawed.

Also my friend, and I am with you I would love to see the schedule toughened up a bit and with more big name games sure, but why would ND do this and hold itself to that standard if no other program or conferences are doing the same? Teams play, typically one HUGE OCG a year and it seems that everyone thinks if you win just that one game you are in. Well here is the thing, its true and that is what we have seen with the CFP. The committee is not asking anyone to play more than one big OCG a year, so for teams like Clemson who has a terrible conference it really helps their chances. Granted Clemson is also very good, but they are not challenged on a week to week basis with competition comperable to SEC or BIG10. So really, how can you even gauge the worth. The FPI? I do not buy it. ND's schedule is strong enough to get to the CFP we saw that last year, and our schedule this year is better than last.

I appreciate the spirited response and there are certainly some relevant points that i'd like to respond to in a future post when I have some more time. But you said you read all of the posts and points made in this thread, but then cited FPI which is a completely *different* system than FEI, S&P+, and ultimately F&P+. FPI is a simulation model with much of the algorithm hidden. F&P+ is something entirely different.

 

[Catholicfan95]

I appreciate the spirited response and there are certainly some relevant points that i'd like to respond to in a future post when I have some more time. But FPI is a completely *different* system than FEI, S&P+, and ultimately F&P+. FPI is a simulation model with much of the algorithm hidden. F&P+ is something entirely different.

It is but think of it like this, I know its going to sound silly, but an apple farmer goes to an orchard and he plants 25 trees, he ranks those trees based on whatever his system is. Now the Orange farmer down the road talks to the apple farmer and says "I like the way you did that". So the orange farmer does the same thing based of the idea of the apple farmer did.

If you arent following the irony here its, do not compare apples to oranges. So yes i agree they are different entities, however a lot of what these algorithms (with any sport) do is take a base structure off of the one that came before it, so there is realistic always going to be some sort of flaw within that algorithm. With each year they will continue to find more data to use to be more accurate and will evolve, but we have not seen anything that is really a good representation, especially middle of the season, of where teams respectively rank . And that is my point more than anything here, it is solid but it is flawed. You are not as wrong as people are making you out to be and I see what you are trying to say so it is all good brother.