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2018 Has a Chance to be Special

TeddyOH

ND Expert
Feb 3, 2004
1,270
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Ohio
I totally recognize that it's spring ball, but I cannot recall a more optimistic picture of ND football in the spring since 2006 going into Weis' 2nd season.

Last year was a very good year. 10 wins including a New Years Day bowl victory over an SEC opponent is great. Our late season stumbles are tough to entirely explain, but most would agree that regression by Wimbush was a big factor.

Looking ahead to 2018 after the bowl victory, I had 4 major concerns. Many of these have been debated in this forum. I no particular order: development of a starting QB, filling gaps at LB, emergence of a go to receiver, restocking an all-time O-line. Along the way, some coaching changes certainly added some angst. Now, we are seeing very positive steps in all of these.

1) QB (+)
The worst thing you can say going into the fall is that we have 2 starting quality QBs. Clearly Wimbush has the talent to be very good, and it sounds like he has made noticeable progress. Book can step in and may win the job outright. I don't see any way QB is worse than 2017. Either Wimbush works out his issues and takes the next step or Book takes over and provides the leadership we need.

2) LB (-)
I still have the most concerns about this unit. I think Tranquil will be an excellent Will if he stays healthy. Coney needs to make progress at Mike. Rover is now a bit of a question mark. Basically, old faces in new places.

3) WR (+)
We may not have an EQ anymore, but it sounds like these guys are all stepping up, and they have length! Sounds like Boykin may be turning into that go to guy, but I think WR is deep and talented. Any one of about 5 guys could potentially step up. This is an upgrade.

4) OL (-)
I'm not sure you could ever get a + in this group. If they can just be close to last year, we're alright. The most recent practice report from telx was very encouraging. It sounds like they are circling in on an optimum use of talent across the line. The emergence of Eichenberg is VERY encouraging, as it allows for others to slot into more natural positions.

As for the other position groups, it's pretty clear that D-line will be improved and the secondary has a chance to be shut down. TE can't get any worse, and all reports are very encouraging there. RB was never a huge concern of mine. Unless you have transcendent talent (nobody on our roster), they'll find very good RBs to pick up yards. Think of some of the plug ins at RB for us in the past who turned out great.

So really, right now my biggest concerns come down to coaching and the schedule. Not a Kelly basher here, but he has evolved into a program manager. I'm good with Long calling the offense. Lea calling D for his first time is a concern. Will we ever decide to coach special teams?

The schedule will be tough. Not 2017 tough though. Opening with Michigan is the biggie. If we can get through that, we are primed for a run. Home against FSU is nice. USC on the road will be scary after the beatdown last year.

This could be the year. Again, it's been a long time since I had that feeling in the spring.
 
I totally recognize that it's spring ball, but I cannot recall a more optimistic picture of ND football in the spring since 2006 going into Weis' 2nd season.

Last year was a very good year. 10 wins including a New Years Day bowl victory over an SEC opponent is great. Our late season stumbles are tough to entirely explain, but most would agree that regression by Wimbush was a big factor.

Looking ahead to 2018 after the bowl victory, I had 4 major concerns. Many of these have been debated in this forum. I no particular order: development of a starting QB, filling gaps at LB, emergence of a go to receiver, restocking an all-time O-line. Along the way, some coaching changes certainly added some angst. Now, we are seeing very positive steps in all of these.

1) QB (+)
The worst thing you can say going into the fall is that we have 2 starting quality QBs. Clearly Wimbush has the talent to be very good, and it sounds like he has made noticeable progress. Book can step in and may win the job outright. I don't see any way QB is worse than 2017. Either Wimbush works out his issues and takes the next step or Book takes over and provides the leadership we need.

2) LB (-)
I still have the most concerns about this unit. I think Tranquil will be an excellent Will if he stays healthy. Coney needs to make progress at Mike. Rover is now a bit of a question mark. Basically, old faces in new places.

3) WR (+)
We may not have an EQ anymore, but it sounds like these guys are all stepping up, and they have length! Sounds like Boykin may be turning into that go to guy, but I think WR is deep and talented. Any one of about 5 guys could potentially step up. This is an upgrade.

4) OL (-)
I'm not sure you could ever get a + in this group. If they can just be close to last year, we're alright. The most recent practice report from telx was very encouraging. It sounds like they are circling in on an optimum use of talent across the line. The emergence of Eichenberg is VERY encouraging, as it allows for others to slot into more natural positions.

As for the other position groups, it's pretty clear that D-line will be improved and the secondary has a chance to be shut down. TE can't get any worse, and all reports are very encouraging there. RB was never a huge concern of mine. Unless you have transcendent talent (nobody on our roster), they'll find very good RBs to pick up yards. Think of some of the plug ins at RB for us in the past who turned out great.

So really, right now my biggest concerns come down to coaching and the schedule. Not a Kelly basher here, but he has evolved into a program manager. I'm good with Long calling the offense. Lea calling D for his first time is a concern. Will we ever decide to coach special teams?

The schedule will be tough. Not 2017 tough though. Opening with Michigan is the biggie. If we can get through that, we are primed for a run. Home against FSU is nice. USC on the road will be scary after the beatdown last year.

This could be the year. Again, it's been a long time since I had that feeling in the spring.
Disagree about WR. Think it is a big question mark. I think it is Boykin and not much change else. I think the coaches are really looking forward to the frosh joining that squad. Claypool is coming off a shoulder so he has probably been held back by that.
 
Special Teams concern. Last year was dismal in SP offense and SP defense. Actually worse than the year before. Polian says he is looking for his core SP contributors. Says when practice moves outside it will be a "gong show" to find the right SP players (whatever that means). Looks like Finke is a lock for PR. While the focus is on Returners, the SP KO/Punt defense were ranked in the 80s and 90s last season.Slightly better from 2016. Then, to top it off, Eric Hansen said that Tyler Newsome has been working out as the holder. Shouldn't someone who is used to handling the ball and can make plays if necessary out of the hold be used? Coach Polian, let me introduce you to Avery Davis. Avery, this is SP coach Brian Polian. Am I overly concerned about this state of affairs?
 
I can't tell. We have a lot of returning talent. We have 7 AC's with 2 or less years on the job including an OC and DC. If those two guys are the real thing, they have a lot of talent to run their schemes.

It revolves around QB play first and foremost for me. We lost a 150 yard a game rushing guy. We have to get up to around 60% passing so that we can use the entire playbook. I am in the Book for QB camp. Brandon is more talented but I think Book will pass better and allow us to use the whole playbook.
 
If you just compare the talent, experience, and depth on the roster to what we had (or thought we had) at the same point prior to the 2017 season, I think you'd see that this team SHOULD be better...though who knows if they will:
  • QB: Improved
    • Return whole depth chart, add a whole year of exp. and dev., starter and depth should both be improved. Unit may not have been as good as expected, but the 2018 spring depth chart is better still than the 2017 version
  • RB: Declined
    • Jones and Williams are fine, but Adams was more proven and the best combination of talent and development. Plus the loss of CJ Holmes really hurts depth/development potential
  • WR: Declined
    • St. Brown and Stepherson ended up disappointing in 2017, so this could eventually prove to be an "Improved", but the spring depth chart looked more talented and experienced than it does now
  • TE: Improved
    • Smythe may prove to be better than we thought, but the depth chart of Mack/Kmet/Wright is stronger than Mack/Smythe, especially from a talent/potential standpoint
  • OT: Even
    • McGlinchey was more proven than anyone on the current OT roster, but in 2017 RT was a complete unknown. Now we have 2 "knowns" available at OT (Hainsey/Kreamer) plus a new guy who is the highest upside (Eichenberg). The upside is similar, and the overall experience is similar, just spread out between 2-3 players instead of concentrated in 1.
  • OG: Declined
    • The 2018 group is actually really, really talented and proven...but it just lacks the elite impact player ala Nelson. However, depending on how much Mustipher/Bars improve and how good Kreamer ends up being, it may end up being an "even". It's not as strong on paper right now though.
  • DE: Improved
    • Basically the entire depth chart returns, and there should be significant development with most of them...as most were 1st year players at their respective DE positions in 2017. This group could potentially take a major jump.
  • DT: Improved
    • Again, the entire depth chart returns. And again, most/all could make major jumps as they were either 1st year players at their positions and/or freshman. Huge potential here.
  • LB: Even
    • Morgan was the only proven player at his position entering 2017. There was high upside but little proof with players like Tranquil and Coney. Coney is now as proven (or better) than Morgan was then, and Tranquil is more talented/proven than Martini. Plus the upside with Bilal and Owusu-Kamara may be even better than it was with Tranquil.
  • CB: Improved
    • Virtually the whole depth chart returns, again with more experience and development. Players like Love, Pride, and Crawford have a totally different image than they did entering 2017...plus we still ave really solid players like Watkins.
  • S: Improved
    • Not only does the whole depth chart return, but it gets MAJOR additions with players like Alohi Gilman (transfer), Houston Griffith (frosh), and Derrick Allen (frosh). Plus, Elliott was basically a first year DB...we could see a major jump from him.
If you total those changes up you get:
- Improved --> 6
- Even --> 2
- Declined --> 3

Plus entering Year 2 of these schemes on offense and defense AND Year 2 of the new (and obviously improved) S&C program....that could really help too

It appears to me that the 2018 version should be better than the 2017 version, based on where we are and what we know right now
 
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My current understanding/opinion on how the depth chart is shaking out:

QB - Wimbush , Book , Davis
RB - Jones OR Williams , Smith OR Armstrong
WRw - Boykin , Jones OR Austin
WRx - Young OR McKinley , Canteen OR Lenzy
WRz - Claypool , Finke , Keys
TEy - Mack , Kmet , Weishar
TEh - Kmet OR Wright
LT - Eichenberg , Banks
LG - Kraemer , Banks
C - Mustipher , Ruhland
RG - Bars , Lugg
RT - Hainsey , Lugg

SDE - J. Hayes OR Kareem , Ogundeji
NT - Bonner , Hinish OR MTA , Ewell
DT - Tillery , MTA OR Hinish , Dew-Treadway
WDE - D. Hayes , Okwara , Jamir Jones
MLB - Coney , Jonathan Jones , White
BUCK - Tranquil , Jonathan Jones , Bauer OR Adams
ROVER - Bilal OR Owusu-Koramoah OR Robertson
FCB - Pride OR Crawford , Vaughn
BCB - Love OR Watkins , Vaughn
NB - Crawford OR Coleman
FS - Elliott , Studstill OR Griffith
SS - Gilman , Studstill OR Genmark-Heath , Allen

Tons of experience here, especially along the DL and in the secondary. Solid experience along the OL and at QB as well.

Those are good places to be deep, talented, and experienced!
 
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