Why We Will Never Be Good

[NotreDame du Lac]

It's pretty simple and obvious to many posters who have stated the same. Recruiting. Recruiting. Recruiting. Those with expectations of seasons greater than 9 wins are kidding themselves. ND might make the playoffs once every 5-10 years. They will sell a lot of tickets and merchandise and then get embarrassed by a more well recruited team with tons of depth on both sides of the ball like Ohio State, Clemson, or Alabama. Our kids try hard, but they are simply outmatched. We always have very talented individuals, but this is a team sport and every position counts. We simply cannot line up against the more elite players in every position.

Ohio State has 11 top 150 players committed to ND's 2. 7 of those top 150 are defensive commits as compared to ND's 1. Ohio State is in the mix for another 5 or more and may end up with around 15 top 150 players. ND will get 2 if one doesn't decommit. When this happens year after year, it creates large margins between the two teams.

Take good coaching into account and consistent recruiting from Ohio State year after year and there is no chance for ND to compete. Brian Kelly should never be expected to exceed Urban Meyer on the field. If he did, it would be by some act of God that that could get inferior kids to beat kids that work just as hard, but have way more talent. That's a pretty tough uphill battle against the nations most elite teams. Bama is doing the same as OSU in out recruiting ND to massive levels year after year. Clemson does it. Michigan is starting to do it. FSU does it. ND just doesn't do it. Even at our best (2012) and with elite talent all over the field, we were at the mercy of Bama's elite recruits at every position. ND had a few holes and it showed on the score board.

I just think too many fans think that a coach like Brian Kelly can pull magic tricks and beat top level coaches that recruit players that are way more elite than us. It is what it is and it's not negative thought. I do see the anger towards Kelly in losing to teams like Duke and NC State. That is unacceptable. However, to expect any coach to come to ND and beat OSU or Bama is silly and irrational. Sorry folks. Nick Saban himself could not beat Bama if he coached at ND. Neither could Dabo, Meyer, Harbaugh, or Petersen. Petersen might be the nations best coach, but he's never going to beat Bama. NEVER.

 

[NDSMC78]

The sky is falling! The sky is falling! The sky is falling!

 

[NotreDame du Lac]

The sky is falling! The sky is falling! The sky is falling!

It's not about the sky falling. I'm content with 9 win seasons. You go ahead and root for national titles and live in fantasy land. I'll take an Orange Bowl win here or there versus a beatable oponent. I think our ceiling is a 2016 FSU sort of year. I will still have fun watching ND be pretty respectable every few years. Just tone down the expectations irrational fans.

 

[perseverare]

Talent is the reason.

Even the best coach needs Talent.

ND currently has an abysmal head coach and 2nd tier overall talent.

Occam's razor

 

[Telx1]

Common sense tells us Ohio Stet al has a much higher probability of success and a much better shot at the NC than ND given the disparity in elite players coming out of high school. That doesn't mean ND and other similarly situated programs don't have a shot at the NC, but it does mean it's a long shot! Personally, I will be satisfied if we are a perennial ten plus win team during the regular season, and an above .500 team in major bowls, and a playoff team every four years or so, with hopes for an improbable NC once a decade. Whether you like Kelly or not, I believe he has significantly upgraded our recruiting with these recent staff changes, and I believe he has significantly upgraded our coaching and player development capabilities. Not sure we have enough improvement to perform as the level suggested above, but anxious to see the results of these changes.

 

[Irishjohn68]

I think this is thinking we all heard in the early 1980's. Guess what happen in 1988.

And I'm sure it is the same think ND fans heard in 1963..

The sky is falling, the sky is falling.

 

[Howard Hall 74]

I think this is thinking we all heard in the early 1980's. Guess what happen in 1988.

And I'm sure it is the same think ND fans heard in 1963..

The sky is falling, the sky is falling.

That's right, it changed when ND fired someone who was in way over their head and hired a real HC. Winning won't happen until that same event occurs. You will not get great talent here unless they come to play for a HC, not to come here because of the school. ND's drawing power for 5* talent is non-existent. Not because of the school, but because of Kelly and the program he has developed. Drain the swamp.

 

[NIN Irish]

So which teams had more talent than Notre Dame last year of the eight losses?

 

[NDSMC78]

I think this is thinking we all heard in the early 1980's. Guess what happen in 1988.

And I'm sure it is the same think ND fans heard in 1963..

The sky is falling, the sky is falling.

Exactly.

 

[SALittleGiant513]

This is a good thread

 

[NDSMC78]

That's right, it changed when ND fired someone who was in way over their head and hired a real HC. Winning won't happen until that same event occurs. You will not get great talent here unless they come to play for a HC, not to come here because of the school. ND's drawing power for 5* talent is non-existent. Not because of the school, but because of Kelly and the program he has developed. Drain the swamp.

More of the typical chicken little response we have come to expect from this poster.

 

[rgc7]

Will ND ever be " Good " again ? Depends on ones definition of Good?
Despite last season, I think ND will win at least 8 games next season. Is that Good ? Some of our fans will say yes !
Will ND ever be a consistently top 10 team again ? I don't think so, unless ND brings in a different coach
or Kelly brings in great assistants and let them do the coaching, while Kelly becomes more of a manager than a coach ?
Next season will be pivotal !

 

[AdvanSix]

this is not new news. Using Ohio State as a benchmark is a fool's errand. Not only has Notre Dame never defeated OSU in the modern era but the games (all 4 of 'em) haven't even been competitive.

 

[ndhell]

ND is a BASKETBALL School NOW. Who cares about football? It's dead.

 

[chaseball]

It's pretty simple and obvious to many posters who have stated the same. Recruiting. Recruiting. Recruiting. Those with expectations of seasons greater than 9 wins are kidding themselves. ND might make the playoffs once every 5-10 years. They will sell a lot of tickets and merchandise and then get embarrassed by a more well recruited team with tons of depth on both sides of the ball like Ohio State, Clemson, or Alabama. Our kids try hard, but they are simply outmatched. We always have very talented individuals, but this is a team sport and every position counts. We simply cannot line up against the more elite players in every position.

Ohio State has 11 top 150 players committed to ND's 2. 7 of those top 150 are defensive commits as compared to ND's 1. Ohio State is in the mix for another 5 or more and may end up with around 15 top 150 players. ND will get 2 if one doesn't decommit. When this happens year after year, it creates large margins between the two teams.

Take good coaching into account and consistent recruiting from Ohio State year after year and there is no chance for ND to compete. Brian Kelly should never be expected to exceed Urban Meyer on the field. If he did, it would be by some act of God that that could get inferior kids to beat kids that work just as hard, but have way more talent. That's a pretty tough uphill battle against the nations most elite teams. Bama is doing the same as OSU in out recruiting ND to massive levels year after year. Clemson does it. Michigan is starting to do it. FSU does it. ND just doesn't do it. Even at our best (2012) and with elite talent all over the field, we were at the mercy of Bama's elite recruits at every position. ND had a few holes and it showed on the score board.

I just think too many fans think that a coach like Brian Kelly can pull magic tricks and beat top level coaches that recruit players that are way more elite than us. It is what it is and it's not negative thought. I do see the anger towards Kelly in losing to teams like Duke and NC State. That is unacceptable. However, to expect any coach to come to ND and beat OSU or Bama is silly and irrational. Sorry folks. Nick Saban himself could not beat Bama if he coached at ND. Neither could Dabo, Meyer, Harbaugh, or Petersen. Petersen might be the nations best coach, but he's never going to beat Bama. NEVER.

This is all common sense/very intuitively obvious stuff. However, ND has a ton of control over their media-partners, and the message that gets out about the program. ND/NBC/etc. do not want fans to understand how big this gaping hole/recruiting advantage is that other programs have over ND (fans won't come out, merchandise won't be purchased, etc.)

There's a massive financial motive to perpetuate this notion that the "talent is fine". It's a much easier theoretical fix to think the program is only a "correct head coaching hire away" from being a perennial power again ... than it is to figure out why top tier athletes aren't as attracted to the brand anymore and to correct whatever the issues are from the very top on down.

 

[tkirish]

You need talent to win. We all agree with that. Does ND have enough talent to compete with the " elites" ? Well , if you look at games they lost such as FSU, Clemson, Stanford to name a few, I think the answer is that they can compete. I don't think talent is the issue. Coaching and the style they play is the issue in my opinion. I'm not going into a long rant. To me it's simple. Get the right coach who understands what Notre Dame truly embodies, and can bring a no nonsense approach then the wins will follow in abundance.

 

[irishalice]

this is not new news. Using Ohio State as a benchmark is a fool's errand. Not only has Notre Dame never defeated OSU in the modern era but the games (all 4 of 'em) haven't even been competitive.

. Michigan hasn't been very successful in beating OSU since 2004 only once in 2011 under Brady Hoke.
....but you know this.

Fool's errand = your post

 

[NIN Irish]

So which teams had more talent than Notre Dame last year of the eight losses?

Crickets. Thought so. Coaching matters.

 

[NDSMC78]

This is all common sense/very intuitively obvious stuff. However, ND has a ton of control over their media-partners, and the message that gets out about the program. ND/NBC/etc. do not want fans to understand how big this gaping hole/recruiting advantage is that other programs have over ND (fans won't come out, merchandise won't be purchased, etc.)

There's a massive financial motive to perpetuate this notion that the "talent is fine". It's a much easier theoretical fix to think the program is only a "correct head coaching hire away" from being a perennial power again ... than it is to figure out why top tier athletes aren't as attracted to the brand anymore and to correct whatever the issues are from the very top on down.

Yeah, the press is concealing reality here. The fans can't figure out for themselves that 4-8 is not a good record.

 

[chaseball]

Yeah, the press is concealing reality here. The fans can't figure out for themselves that 4-8 is not a good record.

There's massive financial motive for ND and all of their partners to keep their fans' head in the sand regarding the talent disparity. Which is why NDs local group of writers that rely on access to ND, and rely on massive fan support WANT TO perpetuate the idea that the program is fine/healthy - and only a coaching change away from perennial contention again. THEY NEVER DISCUSS just how badly other programs are out recruiting ND right now and have been for much of the 21st century.

ND is a 2nd/3rd tier program in college football right now because they can only attract 2nd & 3rd tier athletes. This is a fact. You are not going to compete with the perennial powers in college football when they have 5 first round draft picks to your 1 every year.

 

[twalsh]

this is not new news. Using Ohio State as a benchmark is a fool's errand. Not only has Notre Dame never defeated OSU in the modern era but the games (all 4 of 'em) haven't even been competitive.

We were actually comfortably in the lead and getting the ball back in the second half in the game in Columbus before Emmitt Mosely fumbled that punt and the whole game changed. That game was more than competitive. It's also hard to say the Weis-era Fiesta Bowl wasn't competitive when we were within 7 and had them third and long in the final minutes.

 

[twalsh]

This is all common sense/very intuitively obvious stuff. However, ND has a ton of control over their media-partners, and the message that gets out about the program. ND/NBC/etc. do not want fans to understand how big this gaping hole/recruiting advantage is that other programs have over ND (fans won't come out, merchandise won't be purchased, etc.)

There's a massive financial motive to perpetuate this notion that the "talent is fine". It's a much easier theoretical fix to think the program is only a "correct head coaching hire away" from being a perennial power again ... than it is to figure out why top tier athletes aren't as attracted to the brand anymore and to correct whatever the issues are from the very top on down.

In 2017? Seriously? That's hilarious.

 

[NDSMC78]

There's massive financial motive for ND and all of their partners to keep their fans' head in the sand regarding the talent disparity. Which is why NDs local group of writers that rely on access to ND, and rely on massive fan support WANT TO perpetuate the idea that the program is fine/healthy - and only a coaching change away from perennial contention again. THEY NEVER DISCUSS just how badly other programs are out recruiting ND right now -- and have been through much of the Brian Kelly era.

ND lost to Duke, Navy, Michigan St., Virginia Tech, and NCSU last year. Are you really trying to tell me that those schools have out-recruited ND?

 

[chaseball]

ND lost to Duke, Navy, Michigan St., Virginia Tech, and NCSU last year. Are you really trying to tell me that those schools have out-recruited ND?

This is a SAMPLE SIZE issue. Since we can't look at NDs record vs Duke over the last 5 years (they've only played against each other once) we need to look at how the programs did relative to one another over that same time frame.

e.g. what is Duke's record the last 5 years, and where did their recruiting class fall in each of those 5 years compared to that of Notre Dame's?

There you will see that YES even though Duke pulled out a lucky win vs Notre Dame last year -- ND has CLEARLY been the more accomplished program with a much higher winning percentage and played in much more prestigious games. What's the difference between Duke and Notre Dame? TALENT.

 

[NotreDame du Lac]

ND lost to Duke, Navy, Michigan St., Virginia Tech, and NCSU last year. Are you really trying to tell me that those schools have out-recruited ND?

What Chase said is spot on. Now, can we have a freak year like 2012 and beat every team on the schedule? Probably once a decade when we have talent like Manti, Tuitt, Eifert, Nix, Riddick, Martin, Jones, and a plethora of other NFL talent. It helped that USC was down and we were able to squeak out a few wins versus Stanford and Pitt. Oklahoma was overrated that year and winning that game made ups look good. We were lucky not to face any of the SEC teams that year. Half of the SEC was better than ND in 2012. We lost to Bama badly because we weren't as strong as them across the board in talent or rotation talent.

The fact that we lost to Duke, NC State, and MSU is not an argument for why we can't beat OSU and Bama. Losing those games is a great reason to fire a head coach who clearly lacked any interest in winning this year. It's different at the top of the food chain.

There is no way if Urban Meyer was ND's coach ND would beat an Urban Meyer coached OSU. Why does Urban want nothing to do with an ND coaching job? Why is BK putting feelers out at USC? Sorry. Recruiting matters. The best teams have the best coaching, the best recruiting, and the best player development. Even if ND had the best coach they would lack recruiting to get to OSU level when they faced an equally competent coach. That's why 2012 was miraculous, but fell far short of championship caliber. It will be a long time before ND has 2012 talent. Even when they do, they will fall far behind the top team in the country just like they did in 2012. There was far more NFL talent on the Bama squad despite the fact that 2012 was one of our most talent rich teams in recent times.

With all of the above said, I still would not break on principle. ND has academic standards, as does Stanford. They both have had very solid programs the last several years. ND had a bad year, but I'd say these two schools should be proud of resurrecting their programs without sacrificing academics. ND is first and foremost a top tier academic institution. Football is fun, but it matters to the academic prowess of the school outside of monetary gain. As long as they pull off 8 wins every once in a while, they can fall back on the lore and history of national titles and heisman winners. Regardless of the direction of college football, ND weathers the storm and stays true to what matters most. Some people disagree and would like to see relaxed admissions, but few of those people have ever attended the university or care about Notre Dame outside of football. The point of this thread is to bring up the obvious, which many fans seem not to comprehend. ND has an uphill battle and is very unlikely to ever win a national title in this modern era.

 

[IrishInOntario]

Warning, this is going to be long

What a ridiculously misleading thread title...

There is a HUGE gap between being a really good, top 10 program, and beating Alabama for the National Title. Will we ever be Alabama again in this age of football recruiting? Likely not. But this continually asinine, overplayed, mythical, flat out inaccurate stance that Notre Dame cannot and has not recruited at a level to compete for the playoffs is purely ridiculous.

Yes, Ohio State has an awesome 2017 class in fold. That is a fact. But how does that in any way stop ND from being in the hunt for the playoffs? It doesn't.

Lets deal in facts for a minute. I've asked about 90000000000000 times for people who are of the opinion that ND won't ever be good again to explain how the hell the following teams made the playoffs, if you must recruit like Alabama or Ohio State to get there.

2015 Playoffs
Alabama
Ohio State
Florida State
Oregon

2016 Playoffs
Alabama
Clemson
Michigan State
Oklahoma

2017 Playoffs
Alabama
Clemson
Washington
Ohio State

There have been 12 teams that have played in the college football playoffs in its 3 year existence. Alabama and Ohio State, who are recruiting on another level than not only Notre Dame, but 125+ other programs as well, make up 5/12 teams, which means 7 other teams also made the playoffs (the goal for every program, because it gives you a fighting chance to compete for a title)...

Lets take a look at the composite ranking of the recruiting classes for each of the other schools not named Alabama and Ohio State. We'll go back 5 years as a point of reference.

Composite includes the final rankings from Rivals, 247, Scout and ESPN, combined and averaged out.

Florida State
2012: #4
2013: #11
2014: #4
2015: #3
2016: #2

Clemson
2012: #15
2013: #15
2014: #17
2015: #9
2016: #11

Michigan State
2012: #34
2013: #35
2014: #25
2015: #22
2016: #17

Oklahoma
2012: #12
2013: #16
2014: #14
2015: #14
2016: #19

Washington
2012: #23
2013: #18
2014: #37
2015: #27
2016: #29

Oregon
2012: #13
2013: #19
2014: #21
2015: #16
2016: #27

Notre Dame
2012: #18
2013: #5
2014: #11
2015: #13
2016: #15

Florida State (AVG 2012-2016): 4.8 overall
Notre Dame (AVG 2012-2016): 12.4 overall
Clemson (AVG 2012-2016): 13.4 overall
Oklahoma (AVG 2012-2016): 15 overall
Oregon (AVG 2012-2016): 19.2 overall
Michigan State (AVG 2012-2016): 26.6 overall
Washington (AVG 2012-2016): 26.8 overall

OUTSIDE OF ALABAMA AND OHIO STATE, ONLY FLORIDA STATE HAS RECRUITED HIGHER RATED CLASSES THAN ND, OF THE TEAMS THAT HAVE MADE THE PLAYOFFS.

I can't say that any friggen clearer. Recruiting an elite class every year is not that the only way to do, nor the reason why those other teams made it.

Continued....

 

[IrishInOntario]

So for those who are interested in the real dynamics of winning in football, here are the real reasons why ND is where they are, compared to teams that they out recruited.

1. Coaching. You need top flight coaching in all 3 elements, at that the same time. When ND played elite defense under Diaco, the offense was mediocre under the offensive staff. Even still they played for a title. As their offense improved under a better offensive staff, their defense and special teams regressed under BVG and Booker.

2. Strength and conditioning. In a sport where 1 or 2 players can be the difference in recruiting between you and the class ranked under you or ahead of you, the difference is going to be how many players you develop from each class, and how many players whose potential is maximized over their 3 to 5 years to build good teams. ND has been behind in strength, conditioning and nutrition for years. It has to be taken deadly seriously to compete among the elite. Top recruits become average recruits among their peers over time if they don't improve each year. Stars go out the window as soon as you step onto campus.

3. Roster retention. Flat out, ND failed to retain far too many DL and DB's it recruited, therefore, development could not occur. You cannot lose all your WDE to transfer (for example) and have your DB's transferring and getting kicked out, or recruiting doesn't matter. You can bring in the best players in the country, but if the they aren't on the field, it doesn't matter. When you lose all these games by a TD or less and you are without expected starters or key reserve seniors, Steve Elmer, Corey Robinson, Max Redfield, Devin Butler, Torii Hunter (soft) etc, etc for non-injury related reasons, it makes a damn difference. More on that in a minute.

4. Position specific recruiting. ND has had solid classes, but they've had holes where they whiff at particular positions. The difference between ND and some of the classes ranked behind them that have had more success is that those teams filled their roster spots and needs and developed the hell out of lesser players, to create strong, overall units. Who do you want? A 4th or 5th year senior DE with 4-5 years in a proper strength program and defensive system, or a 4 star sophomore with potential, but only 1 winter in the strength program, and 1 full year in the system? If you can't land Alabama type DL every year, you better land some quality 3 and low 4 star guys and develop to hell out of them, retain them, and have a plan for them... See Clemson who just won a Natty with eight, 3 stars starting, many of whom were on defense.

5. ND is ****ing soft and some of its key players over the past few years don't live and breathe football like their opponents do. Not going to sugar coat it. You want a prime example of that? Find me the players at the other schools who made the the playoffs were a would be senior OL and captain candidate quit football before his senior year for a non football related job opportunity. ****that. Steve Elmer is getting called out. ND's weakest OL spot last year was RG, the spot he vacated and was groomed to play for several years. You want to win football games, don't recruit kids like Steve Elmer, who holds football as a secondary interest or hobby. While you're at it, tell Corey Robinson to kick rocks as well. Yes I'm highly impressed with the kid as a person, but he's a millionaire already. Football isn't that important to him. That's why he can quit early because of concussions. So instead of having a senior Captain (and ND's top returning pass catcher), wide receiver playing against USC, you have a career backup Corey Holmes out there dropping passes, before transferring out a couple months later. While they are at it, you can take Torii Hunter Jr with you. Another soft, millionaire, who cares more about baseball. Team Captain my ass. Wouldn't play through a hamstring that he was worried would carry onto baseball season. This was ND's leader at WR, the same kid who passed on his 5th year, an opportunity to be a repeat captain (an honor at ND) and a chance to play to be drafted in the NFL, for a longshot career in baseball. Why? Because he never has to work in his entire life if he doesn't want to, because his old man was a gold glover and a fine ball player... Some people are going to give me the "that's what makes ND different" BS, but **** that. That's what gets you 4-8. With key players, at key positions, who are seniors, leaders and captains, quiting on their team, because they don't love football. You have to love it man. You have to love each other and you have to go on that 4 year journey focused and single-minded. When it's done you move on with life and broaden your interests, but you have to live and breathe it.

Holtz didn't have kids like Corey Robinson, who were off to Oxford and President of the student body. No, he had kids like Tim Brown, a well spoken gentlemen, a fine student athlete, and a football obsessed college and NFL hall of famer, a Heisman Trophy and Biletnikoff winner and the he embodiment of a Notre Dame man. A ruthless competitor on the field and ND man you would be happy to call your son-in-law off the field. He had guys like Todd Lyght, an impressive man, who is extreme gentleman, but an alpha male in every way. Holtz recruited football obsessed winners, who were passionate and well rounded and wanted to be good at everything they do. They would run through a brick wall for him and their teammates, not quit on them the second a better opportunity came up.

That's what's missing for ND to be in annual playoff conversation. Not starpower.... We have to wake the hell up. When you are backed into a corner in which your only chance is to succeed, or to fail, human instinct drives you towards success. ND needs kids who put their whole future on football and use that awesome degree as as backup option, not the other way around.

 

[NDSMC78]

This is a SAMPLE SIZE issue. Since we can't look at NDs record vs Duke over the last 5 years (they've only played against each other once) we need to look at how the programs did relative to one another over that same time frame.

e.g. what is Duke's record the last 5 years, and where did their recruiting class fall in each of those 5 years compared to that of Notre Dame's?

There you will see that YES even though Duke pulled out a lucky win vs Notre Dame last year -- ND has CLEARLY been the more accomplished program with a much higher winning percentage and played in much more prestigious games. What's the difference between Duke and Notre Dame? TALENT.

It was not a sample size issue at all, unless you consider half a season to be a sample of that season. We played and lost to five teams with significantly less talent than we had last year (I would add that it is my opinion that we lost to a sixth team, Stanford, with less talent than we had, but not significantly so). I realize that this does not fit in with your time worn claim that ND never attracts any talent, but then, few buy what you are selling.

 

[perseverare]

This is a SAMPLE SIZE issue. Since we can't look at NDs record vs Duke over the last 5 years (they've only played against each other once) we need to look at how the programs did relative to one another over that same time frame.

e.g. what is Duke's record the last 5 years, and where did their recruiting class fall in each of those 5 years compared to that of Notre Dame's?

There you will see that YES even though Duke pulled out a lucky win vs Notre Dame last year -- ND has CLEARLY been the more accomplished program with a much higher winning percentage and played in much more prestigious games. What's the difference between Duke and Notre Dame? TALENT.

The premise you are using is based upon the past. ND's talent advantage on defense has declined.
Just go to the drop down tab above and objectively review the defensive roster. Then come back and tell us what you concluded. (you may need to adjust the overstated heights/weights).

 

[RowTheBoatND]

The sad thing is for the people like me that think and only root for 9/10 wins a year b/c of common sense, we can't even get that because the head coach is unable do the little things right once the game begins. See Tulsa, Michigan, Stanford, Clemson and Northwestern games.

I really don't care that much anymore. ND is a basketball school now. I wonder if $warbrick will ever allow Brey to recruit some big time talent now?

 

[chaseball]

IIO, nobody is making the argument that ND can't make the playoffs. Certainly they can. The point you are missing is that the expectation for ND should be much higher than lucking into the playoff once or twice a decade and then being clearly outmatched once they get there - like many of the non Bama, FSU, and OSU programs that you mentioned. In order to be perennial playoff contenders THEY NEED TO CLOSE THE TALENT GAP. And THEY HAVE THE RESOURCES to do it (fan support, brand power, national tv deal, blue-blood program, etc.). Until that happens, NDs upside as a football program is seriously capped.

Also, there's a lot wrong with using composite rankings ... for one, scout.com is a joke in terms of their budget relative to 247, Rivals, and ESPN - yet their ratings are given the same weight as the other big 3 recruiting sites in the composite rankings. Scout.com also notoriously overstates NDs recruits/rankings and always has.

Another key point is that when you look at NDs recruiting rankings, they don't take into account all of the defections/suspensions/transfers/injuries that happened AFTER the class rankings were locked in. Mostly to players in key positions that already lacked depth. These composite rankings also do not account for ND recruiting success being limited to one side of the ball (offense) while striking out on almost every one of their top defensive targets post Diaco era.

 

[chaseball]

The premise you are using is based upon the past. ND's talent advantage on defense has declined.
Just go to the drop down tab above and objectively review the defensive roster. Then come back and tell us what you concluded. (you may need to adjust the overstated heights/weights).

ND has way more talent than Duke collectively over the last 5 years ... and has a way better resume during that same time period as well.

Point being: YES a lesser talented team can beat a more talented team in a single game -- this happens every saturday in college football (small sample size)... but when you expand the sample size to several seasons (e.g. much more games, much larger sample size) the correlation between a program's recruiting success and winning percentage are much stronger.

 

[NDSMC78]

The sad thing is for the people like me that think and only root for 9/10 wins a year b/c of common sense, we can't even get that because the head coach is unable do the little things right once the game begins. See Tulsa, Michigan, Stanford, Clemson and Northwestern games.

I really don't care that much anymore. ND is a basketball school now. I wonder if $warbrick will ever allow Brey to recruit some big time talent now?

Yeah, we know. The sky is falling.

 

[impossibilityofreason1]

Ohio State with all that talent and great coaching got massacred 31 to 0. Notre Dame should never go 4 and 8 with it's current talent level or lose to teams like Duke or Tulsa or Northwestern or Navy. We may not have top 5 level talent year year out but Kelly has recruited above the 4 win level.

 

[chaseball]

Ohio State with all that talent and great coaching got massacred 31 to 0. Notre Dame should never go 4 and 8 with it's current talent level or lose to teams like Duke or Tulsa or Northwestern or Navy.

Small sample size, small sample size, small sample size.

 

[chaseball]

Yeah, we know. The sky is falling.

You've been using this same line ironically since 2007 (when i started posting here)

The sky isn't falling, it already fell a long time ago.

 

[impossibilityofreason1]

Perhaps but the game was not even as close as that score. It could have been 8 quarters and Ohio St. would not have scored. None of the Buckeye players belonged on the field that day. ND has no excuse or shouldn't have any excuse for losing to Tulsa, Northwestern, or Duke. ND has been consistently outmatched at the head coach position for 20 years which is why they are losing to teams with less talent. Only one coach since Holtz is even still a headcoach. The administration has made horrible hires.

 

[NIN Irish]

At least 5 of the 8 teams Notre Dame lost to last year had lesser talent. Is that sample size large enough to say coaching matters?

 

[NDSMC78]

You've been using this same line ironically since 2007 (when i started posting here)

The sky isn't falling, it already fell a long time ago.

That is a new one. The sky has already caved in. Is that is so, ND cannot be saved. Why then do you care?

 

[chaseball]

At least 5 of the 8 teams Notre Dame lost to last year had lesser talent. Is that sample size large enough to say coaching matters?

ND, despite being 4-8 last year, still had a positive point differential (e.g. they outscored the entirety of their schedule +37 in points). I wrote an entire post about this here: https://notredame.forums.rivals.com/threads/notre-dame-point-differential-kelly-vs-weis-vs-willingham.99559

In their 8 defeats, only 1 game was decided by more than 1 possession.

Because of these two factors, despite their 4-8 record, ND still finished as the 29th ranked team in college football using the combined S&P+ & FEI ratings ranking system used at FootballOutsiders.com: http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/fplus

The rating/formula is explained below:
Beginning with Football Outsiders Almanac 2009, Brian Fremeau and Bill Connelly, originators of Football Outsiders' two statistical approaches -- FEI and S&P+, respectively -- began to create a combined ranking that would serve as Football Outsiders' 'official' college football rankings.

The Fremeau Efficiency Index (FEI) considers each of the nearly 20,000 possessions every season in major college football. All drives are filtered to eliminate first-half clock-kills and end-of-game garbage drives and scores. A scoring rate analysis of the remaining possessions then determines the baseline possession efficiency expectations against which each team is measured. A team is rewarded for playing well against good teams, win or lose, and is punished more severely for playing poorly against bad teams than it is rewarded for playing well against bad teams.

The S&P+ Ratings are a college football ratings system derived from both play-by-play and drive data from all 800+ of a season's FBS college football games (and 140,000+ plays).

The components for S&P+ reflect the components of four of what Bill Connelly has deemed the Five Factors of college football: efficiency, explosiveness, field position, and finishing drives. (A fifth factor, turnovers, is informed marginally by sack rates, the only quality-based statistic that has a consistent relationship with turnover margins.)