Playoffs: teams that might stumble and

[perseverare]

teams that might find opportunity.

On paper
Ala ( Or another SEC rep; LSU, AU, TAM, Tenn, UGA are candidates)
tOSU (schedule is a walkover for a very strong well coached and talented team)
FSU
USC
look to be the favorites.
Each has an abundance of talent returning.

FSU and USC look to be the most vulnerable:
FSU lost a superstar at QB and replacing a SS is never a quick fix. And FSU has had issues along the OL the past few seasons. Clemson and GT are their threats.
USC: looks great but their problems are more because they have a hellacious schedule

Teams that are primed to take advantage would include TCU or Baylor, ND, Clemson.
UCLA, Oregon, Stanford and USC could well eliminate each other - as 2 loss teams.
ND must sweep GT, USC, Stanford and Clemson for legitimate consideration. (esp if Clemson or GT beat FSU)
It is unlikely any 2 loss team outside the SEC would get a slot.

 

[twalsh]

teams that might find opportunity.

On paper
Ala ( Or another SEC rep; LSU, AU, TAM, Tenn, UGA are candidates)
tOSU (schedule is a walkover for a very strong well coached and talented team)
FSU
USC
look to be the favorites.
Each has an abundance of talent returning.

FSU and USC look to be the most vulnerable:
FSU lost a superstar at QB and replacing a SS is never a quick fix. And FSU has had issues along the OL the past few seasons. Clemson and GT are their threats.
USC: looks great but their problems are more because they have a hellacious schedule

Teams that are primed to take advantage would include TCU or Baylor, ND, Clemson.
UCLA, Oregon, Stanford and USC could well eliminate each other - as 2 loss teams.
ND must sweep GT, USC, Stanford and Clemson for legitimate consideration. (esp if Clemson or GT beat FSU)
It is unlikely any 2 loss team outside the SEC would get a slot.

ACC media chose Clemson & Georgia Tech as the division winners this week. FSU lost a lot from last year. Of course, so did Clemson.

 

[SALittleGiant513]

Aggies are not a Playoff candidate, they may finish in last place in the SEC west. Tennessee is not coming out of the East over UGA or Mizzou. Outside of that I think TCU or Baylor are strong candidates to make the playoff, at least the winner between the two is.

 

[perseverare]

well that is the problem for SEC and Pac teams, they will beat up on each other and it is possible that teams that are 3,4 best will not be playoff considered teams.
Tenn and TAM have upped their recruiting levels.

 

[SALittleGiant513]

Tenn and Tam may have upped their recruiting levels but they are both very young teams with coaches that may be better then average but are not in the top tier. The Aggies specifically (its easier to know about a team in state) have huge issues on Defense that I don't believe Chavis is going to rectify in year one as the DC. Also there is the issue of QB where you got a Sophomore who started around half the games last year and you have a true frosh competing for the job. Good players but not great and no way they are losing less then 3 games in SEC play.

Also looking at 2012-2015 composite rankings both of those teams are recruiting marginally better then ND, some may say pretty even with ND over the span. This is especially true if you give less weight to the 2015 class since they have stepped on campus yet.

 

[perseverare]

well, interesting comparison, since you stated neither were playoff contenders. I agree they still are 1 top 10 class away from possible contention.
The best of the ND classes, in that time frame, was 2013 and I am sure you saw the recent article regarding rerating that class.

But, yes, the thre year span is very similar.

 

[SALittleGiant513]

You don't actually think ND is a playoff contender so them being in a similar spot would exclude them to correct?

 

[perseverare]

If ND beats USC and is a 1 loss team - then it is possible that the top teams of the SEC and Pac conferences eliminate each other except for conference champs; I do not see a 2 loss team getting in ahead of a 1 loss ND team that has a W over USC.
If UCLA is a 1 loss team with a W over USC then they would bump ND on schedule considerations.
There is a bias about the indy status.
But for ND to have a serious shot FSU has to falter

 

[ForeverNole22]

teams that might find opportunity.

On paper
Ala ( Or another SEC rep; LSU, AU, TAM, Tenn, UGA are candidates)
tOSU (schedule is a walkover for a very strong well coached and talented team)
FSU
USC
look to be the favorites.
Each has an abundance of talent returning.

FSU and USC look to be the most vulnerable:
FSU lost a superstar at QB and replacing a SS is never a quick fix. And FSU has had issues along the OL the past few seasons. Clemson and GT are their threats.
USC: looks great but their problems are more because they have a hellacious schedule

Teams that are primed to take advantage would include TCU or Baylor, ND, Clemson.
UCLA, Oregon, Stanford and USC could well eliminate each other - as 2 loss teams.
ND must sweep GT, USC, Stanford and Clemson for legitimate consideration. (esp if Clemson or GT beat FSU)
It is unlikely any 2 loss team outside the SEC would get a slot.

I don't see us as a favorite this year. We lost too much last year (set a 3 year record for players drafted). We do have a lot of talent, but it is young and inexperienced. I think we are a year away from being a real contender. The only X factor there is EG, but he would have to have a Heisman winning type year to get us close.

 

[perseverare]

^ a lot of talent; and the schedule is favorable.

 

[IrishBlooded]

@perseverare

What do you actually see for the W/L loss record for ND this year? Just curious. Can't remember seeing anywhere where you made an estimate for ND.

 

[ForeverNole22]

the schedule is favorable.

No doubt our schedule is not strong. But our two toughest games are on the road and I don't expect us to win both and wouldn't be surprised at all if we lose both. Bottom line, with our schedule we must go undefeated to make the playoff and I just don't see that happening.

 

[Win5002]

There will be 2 loss teams making the playoffs in the future, matter of fact I would guess there will be more years with a 2 loss team than not.

 

[perseverare]

There will never a 2 loss independent team; I said if it happened it would be an SEC team and now with USC off sanctions the PAC is a possibility.

 

[twalsh]

There will never a 2 loss independent team; I said if it happened it would be an SEC team and now with USC off sanctions the PAC is a possibility.

You would need a really unusual season for that to happen, with multiple upsets in the CCGs.

 

[perseverare]

at this time the most talented teams are in 2 conferences; SEC & PAC
That means they will virtually beat each other out of possible playoff contention. That is probably why the committee places emphasis on the conferences and especially those with a championship game. A 2 loss team may well be one of the 4 best teams but have a vvvery slight chance to get in the playoffs.