ND Schedule updated

[melstew]

Congrove is used to select FCS playoff teams and brings in a little more credibility and less "predictive" bias than "some" sites. We are #9, up one from last week. Anyway, here are our opponents ranks:
Texas AM 14 please please beat ole purple face in two weeks
Northern Ill 51 higher than I would have thought
Purdue 120 ugh
Miami oh 80
Louisville 25 nice!
Stanford 102
Gtech 39 be careful
Navy 27 nicer
FSU 86 what a difference a year makes
Virginia 61 seem to be improving
Army 22 nicest
USC 34 will likely move up
This is ranked as #22 toughest schedule in large part due the oft derided service academies. Of top 10 teams only ga. and Bama have tougher schedules. Of course that also means the academies and Ga. Tech will present challenges. Will be interesting to see this develop.

 

[savvyandsassier]

We obviously do not have a tougher schedule than SEC teams do, so there's something wrong with that formula. But, if that's what the committee is going to use, then more power to us.

 

[burmafrd1943]

We obviously do not have a tougher schedule than SEC teams do, so there's something wrong with that formula. But, if that's what the committee is going to use, then more power to us.

really? Look how beatable Alabama and Georgia are. The SEC is not what it was. Now it still is the strongest overall conference but not by the margin it was.

 

[NDinNJ]

Congrove is used to select FBS playoff teams and brings in a little more credibility and less "predictive" bias than "some" sites. We are #9, up one from last week. Anyway, here are our opponents ranks:
Texas AM 14 please please beat ole purple face in two weeks
Northern Ill 51 higher than I would have thought
Purdue 120 ugh
Miami oh 80
Louisville 25 nice!
Stanford 102
Gtech 39 be careful
Navy 27 nicer
FSU 86 what a difference a year makes
Virginia 61 seem to be improving
Army 22 nicest
USC 34 will likely move up
This is ranked as #22 toughest schedule in large part due the oft derided service academies. Of top 10 teams only ga. and Bama have tougher schedules. Of course that also means the academies and Ga. Tech will present challenges. Will be interesting to see this develop.

This poll has ZERO to do with who makes the playoffs, and is as meaningless as Chase's F+

The playoff committee selects the top 12 teams for the playoffs, 4 of which are the P4 champions, and the highest ranking G5 team. The remaining 7 slots are at-large. I suggest you read how the CFP actually works.
"Unlike other polls, the College Football Playoff rankings come out only until well into the season. And unlike other polls, it's the only one that really matters, as it's for the 12-team playoff."

College football rankings: Every poll explained and how they work

Here's how the AP Poll, Coaches Poll, College Football Playoff rankings, FCS poll and DII football polls work.

www.ncaa.com

 

[melstew]

This poll has ZERO to do with who makes the playoffs, and is as meaningless as Chase's F+

The playoff committee selects the top 12 teams for the playoffs, 4 of which are the P4 champions, and the highest ranking G5 team. The remaining 7 slots are at-large. I suggest you read how the CFP actually works.
"Unlike other polls, the College Football Playoff rankings come out only until well into the season. And unlike other polls, it's the only one that really matters, as it's for the 12-team playoff."

College football rankings: Every poll explained and how they work

Here's how the AP Poll, Coaches Poll, College Football Playoff rankings, FCS poll and DII football polls work.

www.ncaa.com

Agree it's just a computer model that gives some context as to the kind of years our opponents are having as we await the Nov. 5th reveal. But yes I meant to say it has some credibility since they use the basic formula for FCS. I will correct.

 

[sjb75]

really? Look how beatable Alabama and Georgia are. The SEC is not what it was. Now it still is the strongest overall conference but not by the margin it was.

Alabama and Georgia look beatable against SEC teams. Georgia kicked the crap out of Clemson, Alabama kicked the crap out of Wisconsin.

 

[Golson5]

Alabama and Georgia look beatable against SEC teams. Georgia kicked the crap out of Clemson, Alabama kicked the crap out of Wisconsin.

Yeah those world beaters like Vanderbilt, Kentucky South Carolina and Miss state

Vandy lost to Georgia State
Kentucky lost to Vandy and South Carolina
Miss state lost to Toledo and arizona state

 

[FightingIrish44]

Army and Navy both ranked for the first time since 1960.

 

[NDinNJ]

Agree it's just a computer model that gives some context as to the kind of years our opponents are having as we await the Nov. 5th reveal. But yes I meant to say it has some credibility since they use the basic formula for FCS. I will correct.

It's as meaningless as any other rating system out there. as for FCS, The congrove rating system is not used to select the playoff teams. Again read up on the playoff formats.

FCS Championship: Everything you need to know

Here is everything you need to know about the FCS championship: the tournament to decide the national champion in the Football Championship Subdivision of NCAA Division I football:

www.ncaa.com

 

[Patrirish]

Army and Navy both ranked for the first time since 1960.

That’s great, after Notre Dame we should all root for the service teams

 

[burmafrd1943]

Alabama and Georgia look beatable against SEC teams. Georgia kicked the crap out of Clemson, Alabama kicked the crap out of Wisconsin.

so?

 

[melstew]

Are so you saying consideration of strength of schedule is meaningless until November 7th? Or are you saying this model offers no value whatsoever on strength of schedule? Because there is a difference between something not being dispositive or relied upon by the committee, and something not being meaningful. Statistically speaking, a model is definitionally meaningful if its result, and whatever models the Committee will rely upon, are likely to have some correlation stronger than a random correlation. Are you really saying that this model, that the NCAA looks to for the FCS, will have no correlation at all with whatever the FBS folks look at and we could just pull random SOS numbers out of a hat and that would have the same value as this model? You are not saying that because that would be stupid right? To the contrary, while these numbers are not controlling, there are interesting because the committee will but looking at something like this (although not exactly like it) and it gives us something beyond the eye test to think and talk about.

 

[NDinNJ]

Are so you saying consideration of strength of schedule is meaningless until November 7th? Or are you saying this model offers no value whatsoever on strength of schedule? Because there is a difference between something not being dispositive or relied upon by the committee, and something not being meaningful. Statistically speaking, a model is definitionally meaningful if its result, and whatever models the Committee will rely upon, are likely to have some correlation stronger than a random correlation. Are you really saying that this model, that the NCAA looks to for the FCS, will have no correlation at all with whatever the FBS folks look at and we could just pull random SOS numbers out of a hat and that would have the same value as this model? You are not saying that because that would be stupid right? To the contrary, while these numbers are not controlling, there are interesting because the committee will but looking at something like this (although not exactly like it) and it gives us something beyond the eye test to think and talk about.

They look at SoS, but they aren't using the Congrove model for it. You tried to misrepresent what the Congrove rating is not once but twice. First claiming it as an NCAA sanctioned FBS computer model used to select playoff teams. After pointing out your mistake, you then tried to pass it off as the FCS rating system used to select FCS playoff teams, also incorrect. I still great you read how the FCS selects their playoff teams in the link I provided above.
Now you are trying to move the goal post a third time to fit your narrative. Stop because Im making you look like a fool.

 

[NDinNJ]

Are so you saying consideration of strength of schedule is meaningless until November 7th? Or are you saying this model offers no value whatsoever on strength of schedule? Because there is a difference between something not being dispositive or relied upon by the committee, and something not being meaningful. Statistically speaking, a model is definitionally meaningful if its result, and whatever models the Committee will rely upon, are likely to have some correlation stronger than a random correlation. Are you really saying that this model, that the NCAA looks to for the FCS, will have no correlation at all with whatever the FBS folks look at and we could just pull random SOS numbers out of a hat and that would have the same value as this model? You are not saying that because that would be stupid right? To the contrary, while these numbers are not controlling, there are interesting because the committee will but looking at something like this (although not exactly like it) and it gives us something beyond the eye test to think and talk about.

"How do teams get into the FCS playoffs?

The field of 24 is split into two different qualifiers: 10 automatic and 14 at-large.

The automatic qualifiers are the teams that win one of the 10 conferences that receive automatic bids. The at-large qualifiers are selected by the FCS Playoff Selection Committee.

What does the Selection Committee look at in its process?

For information on selecting, seeding, and bracketing teams, the committee may consider comparative data of individual teams, including but not limited to:

Overall record
Record against Division I opponents (an institution with fewer than six Division I wins may place that team in jeopardy of not being selected)
Record against opponents from other AQ conferences
Record against Football Bowl Subdivision (FBS) opponents
Head-to-head record
Record against common opponents
NCAA Simple Rating System (NCAA SRS) Data
FCS Coaches Poll
Input from regional advisory committees
How does seeding for the FCS playoff work?

Once the full field of 24 teams is completed, the committee seeds the top eight teams. This begins with committee members recommending teams for the top-eight seed pool. A team must receive at least 30 percent of the votes to be included in the seed pool. Once this is done, each committee member ranks the teams in the seed pool via poll vote. The committee reviews and discusses this preliminary ranking before voting again. This final vote produces the eight seeded teams, in order."

 

[NDinNJ]

Are so you saying consideration of strength of schedule is meaningless until November 7th? Or are you saying this model offers no value whatsoever on strength of schedule? Because there is a difference between something not being dispositive or relied upon by the committee, and something not being meaningful. Statistically speaking, a model is definitionally meaningful if its result, and whatever models the Committee will rely upon, are likely to have some correlation stronger than a random correlation. Are you really saying that this model, that the NCAA looks to for the FCS, will have no correlation at all with whatever the FBS folks look at and we could just pull random SOS numbers out of a hat and that would have the same value as this model? You are not saying that because that would be stupid right? To the contrary, while these numbers are not controlling, there are interesting because the committee will but looking at something like this (although not exactly like it) and it gives us something beyond the eye test to think and talk about.

For FBS:
The College Football Playoff (CFP) selection criteria for the 2024-25 season include:

Conference champions
The five highest-ranked conference champions receive automatic bids. A conference must have at least eight members for its champion to be eligible for a guaranteed bid.

At-large bids
The remaining seven highest-ranked teams receive at-large bids.

Seeding
The top four conference champions are seeded 1–4 and receive a first-round bye. The remaining teams are seeded 5–12 and play each other in the first round on the home field of the higher-ranked team.

Selection committee
The CFP Selection Committee ranks the top 25 teams at the end of the season. The committee uses a subjective analysis of many statistics, including:

Offense, defense, and special teams ranks

Efficiencies

Situational record, such as 3-1 against the current CFP Top 25 teams

Voting
The committee votes electronically by secret ballot in seven rounds. Committee members start with a small pool of teams, rank them, and place the top-ranked teams in groups of three or four. They repeat this process until 25 teams have been ranked.

Reading is important instead of pulling bs out of your a$$.

 

[savvyandsassier]

This is LSU's schedule for the final six weeks. In case ND fans would like to switch places.

Arky
A&M
Bama
Florida
Vandy
OU

 

[chaseball]

Congrove is used to select FCS playoff teams and brings in a little more credibility and less "predictive" bias than "some" sites. We are #9, up one from last week. Anyway, here are our opponents ranks:
Texas AM 14 please please beat ole purple face in two weeks
Northern Ill 51 higher than I would have thought
Purdue 120 ugh
Miami oh 80
Louisville 25 nice!
Stanford 102
Gtech 39 be careful
Navy 27 nicer
FSU 86 what a difference a year makes
Virginia 61 seem to be improving
Army 22 nicest
USC 34 will likely move up
This is ranked as #22 toughest schedule in large part due the oft derided service academies. Of top 10 teams only ga. and Bama have tougher schedules. Of course that also means the academies and Ga. Tech will present challenges. Will be interesting to see this develop.

These results seem suspect because they're different than the systems I use but it's good to see other posters bringing other ways of looking at the game to the table

Do you have any links to the methodology behind this ranking system?

 

[mbd11]

This is LSU's schedule for the final six weeks. In case ND fans would like to switch places.

Arky
A&M
Bama
Florida
Vandy
OU

I'd rank @A&M as their toughest game remaining. They get Bama at home.

 

[chaseball]

I'd rank @A&M as their toughest game remaining. They get Bama at home.

A lot of times people will only judge a schedule based on the best teams on it but a schedule needs to be evaluated from one through 12 holistically.

A lot of SEC conference schedules have a lot of teams at the very top of the rankings but then their worst teams are still really competitive they don't have any cupcakes ranked down in the hundreds like the other conferences do.

I think Vanderbilt was the worst ranked team in F+ in the SEC at like number 65 or something which for being the worst team in the conference is actually really good All the other teams in the SEC are ranked anywhere from #1 to #50 or so which is also really impressive

I'm using voice transcription and don't have access to the precise numbers at the moment so please forgive the lack of specificity and grammar in my post

edit/update: it turns out that vanderbilt is ranked #68 in F+ and Mississippi St. is ranked #79 (before this weekends games). The point im making still stands but wanted to provide the correct numbers for accuracy/integrity purposes.

 

[savvyandsassier]

I'd rank @A&M as their toughest game remaining. They get Bama at home.

What a surprise.

And I suppose, it should be said, the first half of their schedule was also demonstrably tougher than ours. And mind you, I'm not saying LSU is better than ND. Maybe ND is the best team in the country for all I know. It's irrelevant to me, I don't give a shit about polls. Only that SEC schedules are harder than ND schedules. And incredibly enough, Army and Navy are going to end up two of our toughest opponents, at least on paper. And I presume we'll beat them both.

 

[Juniper_Run]

This is LSU's schedule for the final six weeks. In case ND fans would like to switch places.

Arky
A&M
Bama
Florida
Vandy
OU

The idea that LSU's remaining schedule is a grind is a great example of how previous years distort our view of the current year. Let's look at it team by team:

Arkansas: lost to its only OOC opponent with a pulse, OK State. The Cowboys have since gone 0-3 in the Big 12.

A&M: lost to its only OOC opponent with a pulse, Notre Dame. They've sure looked impressive inside their SEC games though!

Bama: Genuinely impressive OOC win @ Wisconsin plus blowout victories against cupcake OOC opponents. No argument that this is a top level game for LSU.

Fla: Got thrashed by Miami (who struggled mightily to get past Va Tech & Cal) but has a decent OOC win vs Central Florida.

Vandy: No question Clark Lea has them playing like a real team rather than an SEC doormat after victories over Bama & Kentucky. But how do you explain a loss to Georgia State, who is currently 0-2 vs the Sun Belt?

Oklahoma: Got outplayed by (currently 2-4) Houston on the stat sheet. Had a respectable win over Tulane.

If you don't start with the assumption that the SEC must be superior to other conferences this year, it's pretty clear that you can't justify the conclusion that the SEC is superior to other conferences this year.

 

[chaseball]

The idea that LSU's remaining schedule is a grind is a great example of how previous years distort our view of the current year. Let's look at it team by team:

Arkansas: lost to its only OOC opponent with a pulse, OK State. The Cowboys have since gone 0-3 in the Big 12.

A&M: lost to its only OOC opponent with a pulse, Notre Dame. They've sure looked impressive inside their SEC games though!

Bama: Genuinely impressive OOC win @ Wisconsin plus blowout victories against cupcake OOC opponents. No argument that this is a top level game for LSU.

Fla: Got thrashed by Miami (who struggled mightily to get past Va Tech & Cal) but has a decent OOC win vs Central Florida.

Vandy: No question Clark Lea has them playing like a real team rather than an SEC doormat after victories over Bama & Kentucky. But how do you explain a loss to Georgia State, who is currently 0-2 vs the Sun Belt?

Oklahoma: Got outplayed by (currently 2-4) Houston on the stat sheet. Had a respectable win over Tulane.

If you don't start with the assumption that the SEC must be superior to other conferences this year, it's pretty clear that you can't justify the conclusion that the SEC is superior to other conferences this year.

The exercise you are doing here of who beat who and by how much is exactly what a system like F+ is doing but far more comprehensively with far more predictive data at their disposal and years of refinement

The systems like SP+ (which is 1/2 of the F plus system) also does a preseason projection. You need some initial data point with which to say in week one "these are how the teams 1-133 stack up"

In order to come up with that initial one through 133 you need to rank them. And in order to rank them accurately you need to rank them based on data that is most exacting/correlating to winning.

So what are the components of a football program that are most exacting to winning in college football before a single snap of football has been played in the upcoming season?

1. The production of your football team over the last several years with recent years weighted the heaviest
2. The production of players returning to the roster this year that were on the roster last year. Including transfer portal players
3. Your last several recruiting classes with recent ones weighted the heaviest (or some other form of 85 man roster talent rank).

This is what most ranking systems are initially using to determine opponent quality before a single snap of football has even been played in the upcoming season. And the reason the SEC is at the top of these ranking systems is because they are dominating in those top three components above. It's not a myth that the SECs teams are better, it's a fact based on the data in those 1-3 components above

The Big ten is the next closest and then the other two power 4 conferences are way behind the SEC

 

[chaseball]

I don't mean to hijack this topic but I just want to add that ND should be in the Big10 right now getting a blue blood deal from the conference and helping to balance the power between Big10 and SEC in order for Notre Dame to maintain a dominant position in the big picture of major d1 football going forward

The problem with that is Notre Dame is contractually obligated to the ACC until 2037 which is looking more and more like a massive program handicapping deal given the timing. Can't blame Swarbrick too much though nobody expected the sport to be changing this much over the next 10 years when he signed that ACC deal.

 

[tbonesays]

This poll has ZERO to do with who makes the playoffs, and is as meaningless as Chase's F+

The playoff committee selects the top 12 teams for the playoffs, 4 of which are the P4 champions, and the highest ranking G5 team. The remaining 7 slots are at-large. I suggest you read how the CFP actually works.
"Unlike other polls, the College Football Playoff rankings come out only until well into the season. And unlike other polls, it's the only one that really matters, as it's for the 12-team playoff."

College football rankings: Every poll explained and how they work

Here's how the AP Poll, Coaches Poll, College Football Playoff rankings, FCS poll and DII football polls work.

www.ncaa.com

Agree it's just a computer model that gives some context as to the kind of years our opponents are having as we await the Nov. 5th reveal. But yes I meant to say it has some credibility since they use the basic eformula for FCS. I will correct.

The PC has never diverged from the computer rankings, at least not by very much. Even in 2014 when everyone was upset, anOSU was above TCU in the rnakings.

Yeah those world beaters like Vanderbilt, Kentucky South Carolina and Miss state

Vandy lost to Georgia State
Kentucky lost to Vandy and South Carolina
Miss state lost to Toledo and arizona state

Losing in the SEC is like winning against anyone else.

 

[melstew]

For FBS:
The College Football Playoff (CFP) selection criteria for the 2024-25 season include:

Conference champions
The five highest-ranked conference champions receive automatic bids. A conference must have at least eight members for its champion to be eligible for a guaranteed bid.

At-large bids
The remaining seven highest-ranked teams receive at-large bids.

Seeding
The top four conference champions are seeded 1–4 and receive a first-round bye. The remaining teams are seeded 5–12 and play each other in the first round on the home field of the higher-ranked team.

Selection committee
The CFP Selection Committee ranks the top 25 teams at the end of the season. The committee uses a subjective analysis of many statistics, including:

Offense, defense, and special teams ranks

Efficiencies

Situational record, such as 3-1 against the current CFP Top 25 teams

Voting
The committee votes electronically by secret ballot in seven rounds. Committee members start with a small pool of teams, rank them, and place the top-ranked teams in groups of three or four. They repeat this process until 25 teams have been ranked.

Reading is important instead of pulling bs out of your a$$.

Not sure what the BS is. That the committee will consider strength of schedule? They will, right? Yes they will. That the models do give us a general idea as to what strength of schedule looks like? Right? Yes of course they do. Both seem pretty non-controversial. You posting the selection criteria that has been discussed ad naseam is nice but doesn't make either of those realties BS.

 

[savvyandsassier]

The idea that LSU's remaining schedule is a grind is a great example of how previous years distort our view of the current year. Let's look at it team by team:

Arkansas: lost to its only OOC opponent with a pulse, OK State. The Cowboys have since gone 0-3 in the Big 12.

A&M: lost to its only OOC opponent with a pulse, Notre Dame. They've sure looked impressive inside their SEC games though!

Bama: Genuinely impressive OOC win @ Wisconsin plus blowout victories against cupcake OOC opponents. No argument that this is a top level game for LSU.

Fla: Got thrashed by Miami (who struggled mightily to get past Va Tech & Cal) but has a decent OOC win vs Central Florida.

Vandy: No question Clark Lea has them playing like a real team rather than an SEC doormat after victories over Bama & Kentucky. But how do you explain a loss to Georgia State, who is currently 0-2 vs the Sun Belt?

Oklahoma: Got outplayed by (currently 2-4) Houston on the stat sheet. Had a respectable win over Tulane.

If you don't start with the assumption that the SEC must be superior to other conferences this year, it's pretty clear that you can't justify the conclusion that the SEC is superior to other conferences this year.

So you want to switch places, then? We'll make a few calls? That's the only thing that matters. All the rest of this bulllshit. And pretty much irrelevant. The notorious transitive principle on steroids. No offense. As I definitely do start with assumption that the SEC is better. I would have no reason not to. And the beauty of this is ND will never have to find out. We'll just play our obviously easier schedule. And then resort to sophistry to steal the credit away from the SEC anyway. That's all these interminable exercises are. Myself I'm happy to have such a weak schedule, I just want to make the playoff. But I'm not going to sit there and declare it was actually a harder road to hoe the whole time.

 

[Golson5]

I don't mean to hijack this topic but I just want to add that ND should be in the Big10 right now getting a blue blood deal from the conference and helping to balance the power between Big10 and SEC in order for Notre Dame to maintain a dominant position in the big picture of major d1 football going forward

The problem with that is Notre Dame is contractually obligated to the ACC until 2037 which is looking more and more like a massive program handicapping deal given the timing. Can't blame Swarbrick too much though nobody expected the sport to be changing this much over the next 10 years when he signed that ACC deal.

ND should never join the Big and has zero plans to. Don't need to. Don't want to

 

[mbd11]

A lot of times people will only judge a schedule based on the best teams on it but a schedule needs to be evaluated from one through 12 holistically.

A lot of SEC conference schedules have a lot of teams at the very top of the rankings but then their worst teams are still really competitive they don't have any cupcakes ranked down in the hundreds like the other conferences do.

I think Vanderbilt was the worst ranked team in F+ in the SEC at like number 65 or something which for being the worst team in the conference is actually really good All the other teams in the SEC are ranked anywhere from #1 to #50 or so which is also really impressive

I'm using voice transcription and don't have access to the precise numbers at the moment so please forgive the lack of specificity and grammar in my post

edit/update: it turns out that vanderbilt is ranked #68 in F+ and Mississippi St. is ranked #79 (before this weekends games). The point im making still stands but wanted to provide the correct numbers for accuracy/integrity purposes.

Yeah, I know they have a tough overall schedule. But I was just commenting that I think their game at A&M is their toughest game remaining.

 

[mbd11]

Here's another schedule note: After beating Bowling Green Saturday 17-7 (and holding them to 205 yds of offense), Northern Illinois now has the #5 defense in the country, in total yards allowed.

So while we still shouldn't have lost that game, that was a pretty good MAC defense we were facing that week.

 

[BGI User 756]

Alabama and Georgia look beatable against SEC teams. Georgia kicked the crap out of Clemson, Alabama kicked the crap out of Wisconsin.

Keep on digging

Are we allowed to say that since MF lost to NIU?

 

[savvyandsassier]

Here's another schedule note: After beating Bowling Green Saturday 17-7 (and holding them to 205 yds of offense), Northern Illinois now has the #5 defense in the country, in total yards allowed.

So while we still shouldn't have lost that game, that was a pretty good MAC defense we were facing that week.

Alright, I guess that's true. Good for NIU, and good for us by extension. It doesn't change anything in the slightest. It doesn't make our schedule harder than LSU's. Or whatever, the typical SEC schedule. So this is definitely one of those 'it is what it is' situations. And that is definitely what it is.

That's why I'd be hard pressed to think of any sport or sports league on earth that uses judgement calls in any way to determine champions and winners and whatnot if they can avoid it. And victory on the battlefield as it were is the only factor. The NCAA does not do this, and they include at-large bids into national tournaments in various sports it would appear. At least in basketball and football they do. I don't know if soccer or volleyball or water polo has at large bids, where a teams's fate is decided arbitrarily by an appointed authority figure. Rather than a system of purely automatic bids. I guess it's because of commercialism. That's why they expanded the men's BB tourney, to make more money and make it a bigger spectacle, and so of course they want the top brands to get in. Football was always like that with the bowls and polls. But then it was just sportswriters, largely relying on the cult of the undefeated season to do their job for them. Maybe because they didn't want that kind of pressure. And now we finally have a real playoff, but with lots of at-large bids.

Bottom line, the tradition of arguing your team to a championship is deep seated for CFB fans. And for ND fans who make it a point of supreme pride to never even contemplate joining a conference that they could win and get an automatic bid by virtue of, that goes double or even triple.

 

[BGI User 756]

The idea that LSU's remaining schedule is a grind is a great example of how previous years distort our view of the current year. Let's look at it team by team:

Arkansas: lost to its only OOC opponent with a pulse, OK State. The Cowboys have since gone 0-3 in the Big 12.

A&M: lost to its only OOC opponent with a pulse, Notre Dame. They've sure looked impressive inside their SEC games though!

Bama: Genuinely impressive OOC win @ Wisconsin plus blowout victories against cupcake OOC opponents. No argument that this is a top level game for LSU.

Fla: Got thrashed by Miami (who struggled mightily to get past Va Tech & Cal) but has a decent OOC win vs Central Florida.

Vandy: No question Clark Lea has them playing like a real team rather than an SEC doormat after victories over Bama & Kentucky. But how do you explain a loss to Georgia State, who is currently 0-2 vs the Sun Belt?

Oklahoma: Got outplayed by (currently 2-4) Houston on the stat sheet. Had a respectable win over Tulane.

If you don't start with the assumption that the SEC must be superior to other conferences this year, it's pretty clear that you can't justify the conclusion that the SEC is superior to other conferences this year.

Yes

 

[FightingIrish44]

Here's another schedule note: After beating Bowling Green Saturday 17-7 (and holding them to 205 yds of offense), Northern Illinois now has the #5 defense in the country, in total yards allowed.

So while we still shouldn't have lost that game, that was a pretty good MAC defense we were facing that week.

NIU seems to be a good team. It’s still a bad loss, but it’s not like they lost to Akron. There’s a difference.

 

[Juniper_Run]

So you want to switch places, then? We'll make a few calls? That's the only thing that matters. All the rest of this bulllshit. And pretty much irrelevant. The notorious transitive principle on steroids. No offense. As I definitely do start with assumption that the SEC is better. I would have no reason not to. And the beauty of this is ND will never have to find out. We'll just play our obviously easier schedule. And then resort to sophistry to steal the credit away from the SEC anyway. That's all these interminable exercises are. Myself I'm happy to have such a weak schedule, I just want to make the playoff. But I'm not going to sit there and declare it was actually a harder road to hoe the whole time.

To answer your question directly: yes, I would happily trade our remaining schedule for LSU's. I agree that it's harder than ours, but we would get far more credit for those wins and easily make the playoffs going 5-1 the rest of the way. We will need to win out against our schedule to get in, and we will hear plenty of talk about playing those "weak" service academies.

 

[savvyandsassier]

To answer your question directly: yes, I would happily trade our remaining schedule for LSU's. I agree that it's harder than ours, but we would get far more credit for those wins and easily make the playoffs going 5-1 the rest of the way. We will need to win out against our schedule to get in, and we will hear plenty of talk about playing those "weak" service academies.

Well that's sporting of you. Indeed 10-2 in the SEC would presumably be enough.

Whether we would actually go 5-1 against that very challenging stretch of games is an open question, and thankfully for ND and its fans, one we won't have to have an answer for. And maybe 10-2 will be good enough with our schedule, if the SEC big dogs keep knocking each other off, on account what of a deep, powerhouse conference it is.

 

[melstew]

These results seem suspect because they're different than the systems I use but it's good to see other posters bringing other ways of looking at the game to the table

Do you have any links to the methodology behind this ranking system?

Hahahaha no I am not diving further into the bona fides of this model I don't care that much about . But appreciate your kind words and regret the gratuitous swipe at F+. Take care.

 

[NDinNJ]

Here's another schedule note: After beating Bowling Green Saturday 17-7 (and holding them to 205 yds of offense), Northern Illinois now has the #5 defense in the country, in total yards allowed.

So while we still shouldn't have lost that game, that was a pretty good MAC defense we were facing that week.

You guys are elevating MAC teams. lol 😂 The same individuals downgrading Alabama for their loss to a P4 Vanderbilt are making excuses for ND's loss to a G5 program or trying to lessen the severity of that loss. Try harder.

 

[mbd11]

You guys are elevating MAC teams. lol 😂 The same individuals downgrading Alabama for their loss to a P4 Vanderbilt are making excuses for ND's loss to a G5 program or trying to lessen the severity of that loss. Try harder.

It's not an excuse. We still shouldn't have lost. But their defense is actually pretty good. Penn State allowed 375 yds to Bowling Green. NIU allowed 205.

 

[NDinNJ]

It's not an excuse. We still shouldn't have lost. But their defense is actually pretty good. Penn State allowed 375 yds to Bowling Green. NIU allowed 205.

And Buffalo beat NIU, so does that mean Buffalo would beat ND? No it does not. So comparing what Penn State did with a common opponent to NIU is irrelevant, It's meaningless.

 

[Quix0te]

This is LSU's schedule for the final six weeks. In case ND fans would like to switch places.

Arky
A&M
Bama
Florida
Vandy
OU

This is Purdue's schedule for the final six weeks. In case ND fans would like to switch places.

# 2 Oregon
Northwestern
# 4 Ohio State
# 3 Penn State
Michigan State
# 16 Indiana