Playoffs??? I Just Don’t See It

[TeddyOH]

GREAT victory last night!

But why do most articles talk about ND as a playoff contender? ESPN even went so far as to say ND is a lock for the playoffs at 11-1. Sorry, but I just don't see it. I'm going to bite on this and take a deep look at our playoff chances - KNOWING 100% THAT WE MUST WIN OUT TO EVEN BE IN THE CONVERSATION. So yeah, 1 game at a time, but this is what being a fan is all about!

In an effort to clarify the playoffs, I like to look at each Power 5 conference and see how ND stacks up. Rankings are great and all, but there is a committee, and I think this is the way they look at it. You have to start with the conference champ of each. They are certainly weighted highest with that marquee championship game victory. So for ND to get in, WE HAVE TO BE MARKEDLY BETTER THAN AT LEAST 2 POWER 5 CONFERENCE CHAMPS. As you will see, there is a complicating factor this year in Georgia. Let's take a look...

ACC
We play 5 ACC teams, and this year that includes NC State and Miami, who currently lead their respective divisions. If we beat both of them, that looks pretty good. Clemson is a wildcard here. They could win it all, and as the defending champ, I think they get the edge at 12-1 over ND at 11-1. So we need to root for Clemson to lose 1 more. At NC State is probably the only shot before the championship game, where we root like hell for Miami!

Big 12
Really wide open. TCU if undefeated will beat us out. Oklahoma and OSU each have 1 loss. I think a Big 12 champ with 1 loss also beats us out, since we have no common opponents. So we need TCU to lose a couple, and the OK schools to beat each other up. With a championship game the odds improve, but we need some things to happen.

Big 10
Also wide open. Any undefeated or 1 loss conference champ will edge us out, except MSU. So we need to root for Sparty HARD! PSU and Wisky have to lose 2. OSU needs to lose 1. I just don't see us edging out a Big 10 champ. Way too much has to happen.

Pac 12
Throw out the South. We beat out any champ from there. In the North, we would hold the edge on Stanford, but need either of the Washingtons to lose 1 more. Highly probable.

SEC
No way they are ever excluded. Right now, this is a 2 team conference. Alabama and Georgia. Everyone else is mediocre to bad. Not bad enough that they couldn't trip up one of the big boys. A Bama-Bulldog championship matchup is very likely. And where does that leave us? If Georgia wins, I actually think we have the edge over Bama. Yeah, I said it. If Bama wins, a 1 loss Georgia gets in as a 2nd SEC team. In that scenario, I think we are out. I can't see us beating out 3 other Power 5 champs.

So looking at it logically, I think it's pretty obvious that anyone saying an 11-1 ND is a LOCK for the playoffs is just stupid.

I think we would almost certainly be ahead of the Pac 12 champ. I think there is a decent shot at beating out the ACC champ. Probably a toss up on the Big 12. No way for the Big 10 and SEC. Throw Georgia into the mix as a 1 loss runner up, and we really need the cards to fall.

Of course the response to this if confronted will be, "There's still a lot of football to be played!" Yeah, a lot can happen. But it isn't just up to ND winning. We have to watch the scoreboards from here on out!

 

[NDIRISH53]

I see it if we go undefeated.
1 Bama
2 PSU
3 UGA
4 ND

Penn state beats Ohio state next week. Bye bye OSU

I do worry about the big 12 power struggle of okie, okie state and tcu. They will probably all ruin each other's chances.

If okie comes out on top. Our best win is better than their best win seeing as Ohio state will have at least 2 losses and Miami should win the ACC

 

[Pennick44]

GREAT victory last night!

But why do most articles talk about ND as a playoff contender? ESPN even went so far as to say ND is a lock for the playoffs at 11-1. Sorry, but I just don't see it. I'm going to bite on this and take a deep look at our playoff chances - KNOWING 100% THAT WE MUST WIN OUT TO EVEN BE IN THE CONVERSATION. So yeah, 1 game at a time, but this is what being a fan is all about!

In an effort to clarify the playoffs, I like to look at each Power 5 conference and see how ND stacks up. Rankings are great and all, but there is a committee, and I think this is the way they look at it. You have to start with the conference champ of each. They are certainly weighted highest with that marquee championship game victory. So for ND to get in, WE HAVE TO BE MARKEDLY BETTER THAN AT LEAST 2 POWER 5 CONFERENCE CHAMPS. As you will see, there is a complicating factor this year in Georgia. Let's take a look...

ACC
We play 5 ACC teams, and this year that includes NC State and Miami, who currently lead their respective divisions. If we beat both of them, that looks pretty good. Clemson is a wildcard here. They could win it all, and as the defending champ, I think they get the edge at 12-1 over ND at 11-1. So we need to root for Clemson to lose 1 more. At NC State is probably the only shot before the championship game, where we root like hell for Miami!

Big 12
Really wide open. TCU if undefeated will beat us out. Oklahoma and OSU each have 1 loss. I think a Big 12 champ with 1 loss also beats us out, since we have no common opponents. So we need TCU to lose a couple, and the OK schools to beat each other up. With a championship game the odds improve, but we need some things to happen.

Big 10
Also wide open. Any undefeated or 1 loss conference champ will edge us out, except MSU. So we need to root for Sparty HARD! PSU and Wisky have to lose 2. OSU needs to lose 1. I just don't see us edging out a Big 10 champ. Way too much has to happen.

Pac 12
Throw out the South. We beat out any champ from there. In the North, we would hold the edge on Stanford, but need either of the Washingtons to lose 1 more. Highly probable.

SEC
No way they are ever excluded. Right now, this is a 2 team conference. Alabama and Georgia. Everyone else is mediocre to bad. Not bad enough that they couldn't trip up one of the big boys. A Bama-Bulldog championship matchup is very likely. And where does that leave us? If Georgia wins, I actually think we have the edge over Bama. Yeah, I said it. If Bama wins, a 1 loss Georgia gets in as a 2nd SEC team. In that scenario, I think we are out. I can't see us beating out 3 other Power 5 champs.

So looking at it logically, I think it's pretty obvious that anyone saying an 11-1 ND is a LOCK for the playoffs is just stupid.

I think we would almost certainly be ahead of the Pac 12 champ. I think there is a decent shot at beating out the ACC champ. Probably a toss up on the Big 12. No way for the Big 10 and SEC. Throw Georgia into the mix as a 1 loss runner up, and we really need the cards to fall.

Of course the response to this if confronted will be, "There's still a lot of football to be played!" Yeah, a lot can happen. But it isn't just up to ND winning. We have to watch the scoreboards from here on out!

ND's strength of schedule will get them in if they win out!

 

[faviles15]

Well you pretty much typed everything I was thinking about last night after the win. I don't think an 11-1 Irish team is a lock so I agree we need help along with some more impressive wins like last night.

 

[deadirishpoet]

GREAT victory last night!

But why do most articles talk about ND as a playoff contender? ESPN even went so far as to say ND is a lock for the playoffs at 11-1. Sorry, but I just don't see it. I'm going to bite on this and take a deep look at our playoff chances - KNOWING 100% THAT WE MUST WIN OUT TO EVEN BE IN THE CONVERSATION. So yeah, 1 game at a time, but this is what being a fan is all about!

In an effort to clarify the playoffs, I like to look at each Power 5 conference and see how ND stacks up. Rankings are great and all, but there is a committee, and I think this is the way they look at it. You have to start with the conference champ of each. They are certainly weighted highest with that marquee championship game victory. So for ND to get in, WE HAVE TO BE MARKEDLY BETTER THAN AT LEAST 2 POWER 5 CONFERENCE CHAMPS. As you will see, there is a complicating factor this year in Georgia. Let's take a look...

ACC
We play 5 ACC teams, and this year that includes NC State and Miami, who currently lead their respective divisions. If we beat both of them, that looks pretty good. Clemson is a wildcard here. They could win it all, and as the defending champ, I think they get the edge at 12-1 over ND at 11-1. So we need to root for Clemson to lose 1 more. At NC State is probably the only shot before the championship game, where we root like hell for Miami!

Big 12
Really wide open. TCU if undefeated will beat us out. Oklahoma and OSU each have 1 loss. I think a Big 12 champ with 1 loss also beats us out, since we have no common opponents. So we need TCU to lose a couple, and the OK schools to beat each other up. With a championship game the odds improve, but we need some things to happen.

Big 10
Also wide open. Any undefeated or 1 loss conference champ will edge us out, except MSU. So we need to root for Sparty HARD! PSU and Wisky have to lose 2. OSU needs to lose 1. I just don't see us edging out a Big 10 champ. Way too much has to happen.

Pac 12
Throw out the South. We beat out any champ from there. In the North, we would hold the edge on Stanford, but need either of the Washingtons to lose 1 more. Highly probable.

SEC
No way they are ever excluded. Right now, this is a 2 team conference. Alabama and Georgia. Everyone else is mediocre to bad. Not bad enough that they couldn't trip up one of the big boys. A Bama-Bulldog championship matchup is very likely. And where does that leave us? If Georgia wins, I actually think we have the edge over Bama. Yeah, I said it. If Bama wins, a 1 loss Georgia gets in as a 2nd SEC team. In that scenario, I think we are out. I can't see us beating out 3 other Power 5 champs.

So looking at it logically, I think it's pretty obvious that anyone saying an 11-1 ND is a LOCK for the playoffs is just stupid.

I think we would almost certainly be ahead of the Pac 12 champ. I think there is a decent shot at beating out the ACC champ. Probably a toss up on the Big 12. No way for the Big 10 and SEC. Throw Georgia into the mix as a 1 loss runner up, and we really need the cards to fall.

Of course the response to this if confronted will be, "There's still a lot of football to be played!" Yeah, a lot can happen. But it isn't just up to ND winning. We have to watch the scoreboards from here on out!

Fighting the conference ties will be tough

 

[ndfi65]

Its a no brainer, if the Irish go 11-1 they are in. That's a guarantee

 

[stu4don]

We are finally in the conversation. ESPN had us on the top eight board last night in predicting the final four. One step at a time. Next week is a big one. They are all big.

 

[TOMMY_23]

It's pretty easy to see it, if ND goes 11-1. Get some glasses.

Bama
TCU
ND
Ohio State

 

[TOMMY_23]

Well you pretty much typed everything I was thinking about last night after the win. I don't think an 11-1 Irish team is a lock so I agree we need help along with some more impressive wins like last night.

Are you kidding? ND's SOS will be better than any other team in the top-10. The third and fourth teams in will all have one loss. SOS matters to the committee. Wisconsin's pathetic schedule is going to kill them.

 

[faviles15]

Are you kidding? ND's SOS will be better than any other team in the top-10. The third and fourth teams in will all have one loss. SOS matters to the committee. Wisconsin's pathetic schedule is going to kill them.

If Wisky goes into the B10 championship game undefeated and beats PSU or OSU, they definitely get the nod ahead of us. With 1 loss I think we would have the better argument.

 

[zuskie]

Lot of games left to play. Teams always lose to shake up the playoff predictions. So if ND wins out...I think they're likely in.

 

[88ND]

ND's strength of schedule will get them in if they win out!

Guess what...strength of schedule today means nothing come Thanksgiving weekend.

You do realize this changes weekly, right? It can be drastically different come turkey day, turkey.

 

[88ND]

Are you kidding? ND's SOS will be better than any other team in the top-10. The third and fourth teams in will all have one loss. SOS matters to the committee. Wisconsin's pathetic schedule is going to kill them.

I'm not worried about the Wisconsin thing. I believe the big ten winner gets in but they only send one team.
The scenario that worries me is
Sec winner
TCU undefeated is the only way Big 12 sends a team.
Big 10 winner
Which leads to the problem area.
If Clemson wins the ACC I worry a human committee will put them in because they're the returning champ.

They can preach the selection is not on reputation but that's BS.

A one loss Clemson team will be tough to keep out.

All bets are off if Notre Dame beats the remaining teams by thirty five on average.

Then Notre Dame could make a legit case to be #1 seed if they're just dominating everyone here on out.

 

[Pennick44]

Guess what...strength of schedule today means nothing come Thanksgiving weekend.

You do realize this changes weekly, right? It can be drastically different come turkey day, turkey.

Get Book ready to start next weekend!
Dummy!

 

[NDAFArly]

There are ratings out there that predict the playoff just like the guy on bracketology does for basketball.
They look at how the committee members vote & handle resumes, etc...
Even before the USC game they had ND in top 10. Predicted that if ND wins vs NC State we will be in the top 6 in the initial CFP rankings.

You have to look at the way the committee sees it, not polls. ND’s resume is one of the best in the country & will get stronger.
At 11-1 ND is getting in.

 

[88ND]

Get Book ready to start next weekend!
Dummy!

Why? BW get hurt or something?

Yet again your baseball playing days with no batting helmet shines through.

Up to the week where Book had to start you might have been the only person in the world to have thought BW was an accurate passer. Matter of fact you probably still think he's incredibly accurate...which was the ONLY thing I was concerned with and you should have been too.

Last night BW showed confidence. Not in throwing but running. He was decisive and just took off like a tailback with no hesitation.

As far as throwing he was effective last night. That's all he has to be which he did greatly.

Last night was a different BW so far on the year.

Brand new challenge next week. Start getting ready now.

 

[Zorich 88]

No B12 team will go ahead of ND.

No ACC team including Clemson who will lose again.

No Pac 10 team

PSU
Georgia
ND
Bama

 

[gautrp]

They already know who the four teams will be.

 

[NDSMC78]

They already know who the four teams will be.

What does this person continue to post this nonsense?

 

[Okie70]

Good thread. First an undefeated TCU team will get in ahead of ND. Or any other one loss team. But comment about OU not winning head to head with NDame since a Miami win better and OU's over tOSU interesting. But Big 12 has a championship game this year. If OU beats a top 10 TCU team twice and is at 12-1 no way Irish get ahead. Unlikely, I admit.

 

[zonairish]

Well you pretty much typed everything I was thinking about last night after the win. I don't think an 11-1 Irish team is a lock so I agree we need help along with some more impressive wins like last night.

too many variables right now but it could happen

 

[chaseball]

It's hard to control your destiny with 1 loss and no conference championship game ... but NDs strength of schedule is no joke (top 25 according to sagarin -- and that ranking is only going to get higher over the next 5 weeks) ... and ND isn't just beating teams, they are demolishing them (close to +200 point differential).

If ND wins out, and Georgia continues to dominate as well, it's going to be very hard to put any other 1 loss team over Notre Dame. Even an undefeated P5 conference champion could have a weaker resume than an 11-1 ND by nature of strength of schedule.

I know it's hard to comprehend since ND has been down so long but this is a really good football team. Despite what the polls/records say .. outside of OSU, Alabama, and Georgia I don't think there's a better team in college football, and that's what's most important come playoff committee voting time.

 

[gautrp]

Good thread. First an undefeated TCU team will get in ahead of ND. Or any other one loss team. But comment about OU not winning head to head with NDame since a Miami win better and OU's over tOSU interesting. But Big 12 has a championship game this year. If OU beats a top 10 TCU team twice and is at 12-1 no way Irish get ahead. Unlikely, I admit.

TCU will not be in the playoffs

 

[gautrp]

What does this person continue to post this nonsense?

It's "Why" not "What."

 

[NDAFArly]

Good thread. First an undefeated TCU team will get in ahead of ND. Or any other one loss team. But comment about OU not winning head to head with NDame since a Miami win better and OU's over tOSU interesting. But Big 12 has a championship game this year. If OU beats a top 10 TCU team twice and is at 12-1 no way Irish get ahead. Unlikely, I admit.

If TCU loses twice they won’t be a top 10 team with their schedule.
Oklahoma’s SOS is falling apart, & if OSU doesnt win the Big10 then they have nothing.
Not to mention they have looked bad in 3 games already this year. (ISU, Baylor, KSU).
And the committee remembers their last two efforts in the CFP.
And as noted by the CFP representative at ESPN, ND will have the strongest SOS of any contender. That carries the most weight with the committee. Basically the PAC12 is done, & only an undefeated TCU has a strong case in the Big12.
Conferences are praying ND loses because if they run the table & go 11-1 with the strongest SOS they are in, according to people who follow the committee.

 

[irishstuey81]

There is a scenario that would leave a one loss Irish out, but odds are everything will look different come late November (including a possible loss or two for the Irish.)

 

[Telx1]

Let’s simplify this since it’s all pure conjecture at this point. We win out and either Miami or NCST wins the ACC and either USC or Stanford wins the PAC.

 

[TeddyOH]

I sense a common theme from many posters that playoff slots are awarded on merit.

Sorry to be the bearer of bad news but they are not. College football is a cabal run by the Power 5 conferences. These conferences are so much more powerful than ND, and they will stick together to scratch each other’s back.

When the playoffs were announced, I was almost certain the only way we’d ever get in is undefeated. I also feared several very sad selection days. Nothing I have seen has changed that.

At 1 loss, we will need to be clearly a better team than any conference champ. One easy way is record. We’d be ahead of anyone with 2 losses. Another is head to head. That’s it. SOS is just window dressing for us. It matters comparing 2 conference champs, but we are always a tier below a champ.

There is no way in this world we beat out ANY 1 loss conference champ unless we’ve beaten them. Just accept it and pray for chaos.

 

[twalsh]

GREAT victory last night!

But why do most articles talk about ND as a playoff contender? ESPN even went so far as to say ND is a lock for the playoffs at 11-1. Sorry, but I just don't see it. I'm going to bite on this and take a deep look at our playoff chances - KNOWING 100% THAT WE MUST WIN OUT TO EVEN BE IN THE CONVERSATION. So yeah, 1 game at a time, but this is what being a fan is all about!

In an effort to clarify the playoffs, I like to look at each Power 5 conference and see how ND stacks up. Rankings are great and all, but there is a committee, and I think this is the way they look at it. You have to start with the conference champ of each. They are certainly weighted highest with that marquee championship game victory. So for ND to get in, WE HAVE TO BE MARKEDLY BETTER THAN AT LEAST 2 POWER 5 CONFERENCE CHAMPS. As you will see, there is a complicating factor this year in Georgia. Let's take a look...

ACC
We play 5 ACC teams, and this year that includes NC State and Miami, who currently lead their respective divisions. If we beat both of them, that looks pretty good. Clemson is a wildcard here. They could win it all, and as the defending champ, I think they get the edge at 12-1 over ND at 11-1. So we need to root for Clemson to lose 1 more. At NC State is probably the only shot before the championship game, where we root like hell for Miami!

Big 12
Really wide open. TCU if undefeated will beat us out. Oklahoma and OSU each have 1 loss. I think a Big 12 champ with 1 loss also beats us out, since we have no common opponents. So we need TCU to lose a couple, and the OK schools to beat each other up. With a championship game the odds improve, but we need some things to happen.

Big 10
Also wide open. Any undefeated or 1 loss conference champ will edge us out, except MSU. So we need to root for Sparty HARD! PSU and Wisky have to lose 2. OSU needs to lose 1. I just don't see us edging out a Big 10 champ. Way too much has to happen.

Pac 12
Throw out the South. We beat out any champ from there. In the North, we would hold the edge on Stanford, but need either of the Washingtons to lose 1 more. Highly probable.

SEC
No way they are ever excluded. Right now, this is a 2 team conference. Alabama and Georgia. Everyone else is mediocre to bad. Not bad enough that they couldn't trip up one of the big boys. A Bama-Bulldog championship matchup is very likely. And where does that leave us? If Georgia wins, I actually think we have the edge over Bama. Yeah, I said it. If Bama wins, a 1 loss Georgia gets in as a 2nd SEC team. In that scenario, I think we are out. I can't see us beating out 3 other Power 5 champs.

So looking at it logically, I think it's pretty obvious that anyone saying an 11-1 ND is a LOCK for the playoffs is just stupid.

I think we would almost certainly be ahead of the Pac 12 champ. I think there is a decent shot at beating out the ACC champ. Probably a toss up on the Big 12. No way for the Big 10 and SEC. Throw Georgia into the mix as a 1 loss runner up, and we really need the cards to fall.

Of course the response to this if confronted will be, "There's still a lot of football to be played!" Yeah, a lot can happen. But it isn't just up to ND winning. We have to watch the scoreboards from here on out!

One of UW or Wazzu has to lose when they play each other, and they have both played very weak non-con schedules. We beat out either one of them if we go 11-1.

 

[Pennick44]

I sense a common theme from many posters that playoff slots are awarded on merit.

Sorry to be the bearer of bad news but they are not. College football is a cabal run by the Power 5 conferences. These conferences are so much more powerful than ND, and they will stick together to scratch each other’s back.

When the playoffs were announced, I was almost certain the only way we’d ever get in is undefeated. I also feared several very sad selection days. Nothing I have seen has changed that.

At 1 loss, we will need to be clearly a better team than any conference champ. One easy way is record. We’d be ahead of anyone with 2 losses. Another is head to head. That’s it. SOS is just window dressing for us. It matters comparing 2 conference champs, but we are always a tier below a champ.

There is no way in this world we beat out ANY 1 loss conference champ unless we’ve beaten them. Just accept it and pray for chaos.

Not true. It is about $ and there is no way they leave ND out of playoffs with their SOS.

 

[NDAFArly]

I sense a common theme from many posters that playoff slots are awarded on merit.

Sorry to be the bearer of bad news but they are not. College football is a cabal run by the Power 5 conferences. These conferences are so much more powerful than ND, and they will stick together to scratch each other’s back.

When the playoffs were announced, I was almost certain the only way we’d ever get in is undefeated. I also feared several very sad selection days. Nothing I have seen has changed that.

At 1 loss, we will need to be clearly a better team than any conference champ. One easy way is record. We’d be ahead of anyone with 2 losses. Another is head to head. That’s it. SOS is just window dressing for us. It matters comparing 2 conference champs, but we are always a tier below a champ.

There is no way in this world we beat out ANY 1 loss conference champ unless we’ve beaten them. Just accept it and pray for chaos.

You must not have been alive yet in 2015 when a 1 loss ND debuted in the sixth spot in the CFP rankings? If ND handled business they would have been in.

You act like you know how the committee thinks? You don’t. The people who do have already gone on the record saying SOS is the most important thing to them.

But if you just want to keep being a downer feel free. But you are just wasting your time.

 

[thehellyousay]

I sense a common theme from many posters that playoff slots are awarded on merit.

Sorry to be the bearer of bad news but they are not. College football is a cabal run by the Power 5 conferences. These conferences are so much more powerful than ND, and they will stick together to scratch each other’s back.

When the playoffs were announced, I was almost certain the only way we’d ever get in is undefeated. I also feared several very sad selection days. Nothing I have seen has changed that.

At 1 loss, we will need to be clearly a better team than any conference champ. One easy way is record. We’d be ahead of anyone with 2 losses. Another is head to head. That’s it. SOS is just window dressing for us. It matters comparing 2 conference champs, but we are always a tier below a champ.

There is no way in this world we beat out ANY 1 loss conference champ unless we’ve beaten them. Just accept it and pray for chaos.

Notre Dame was part of creating the playoff - and lest we forget, ND is also an ACC member..

I believe the committee wants the best 4 teams - I've seen nothing to suggest otherwise to this point in the selection process... I don't believe in any anti-ND conspiracy...

if ND wins out, and especially if they dominate, they are likely in - there are scenarios where they might not make it, I'll concede, but they have a case against most any p5 1 loss team...

PAC doesn't worry me - Wins over ranked Stanford and USC, Wazzou lost by 5 TDs to Cal, and UDub lost to unranked ASU (and got smoked in last year's playoff) - I think the PAC is done for the playoff

ACC - Clemson has a bad loss; if NC State beats Clemson and Miami beats VT, ND could have a win over both ACCCG participants - do you still pick the conference champ there?

SEC - No shot here, either Bama or GA

Big 12 - NO CCG, and they have a history of beating each other up

B1G - put this in the maybe column - depends on which 1 loss team wins

 

[hayaka]

Notre Dame was part of creating the playoff - and lest we forget, ND is also an ACC member..

ACC - Clemson has a bad loss; if NC State beats Clemson and Miami beats VT, ND could have a win over both ACCCG participants - do you still pick the conference champ there?

Big 12 - NO CCG, and they have a history of beating each other up

B1G - put this in the maybe column - depends on which 1 loss team wins

The Big 12 does have a CCG this year.

 

[thehellyousay]

The Big 12 does have a CCG this year.

I see that now... thought that started next year...

that could actually hurt them this year, because I don't see anyone coming out of that conference without at least 1 loss, and the chances of at least 1 CCG participant with 2 losses seems likely... OU, OSU and WVU all have to play each other, and they all have a conference loss already, and Iowa State still has WVU, TCU and OSU...

might just cause a CC with 2 losses...

 

[DougsDad]

They already know who the four teams will be.

Is Comey on the selection committee?

 

[gautrp]

Notre Dame was part of creating the playoff - and lest we forget, ND is also an ACC member..

I believe the committee wants the best 4 teams - I've seen nothing to suggest otherwise to this point in the selection process... I don't believe in any anti-ND conspiracy...

if ND wins out, and especially if they dominate, they are likely in - there are scenarios where they might not make it, I'll concede, but they have a case against most any p5 1 loss team...

PAC doesn't worry me - Wins over ranked Stanford and USC, Wazzou lost by 5 TDs to Cal, and UDub lost to unranked ASU (and got smoked in last year's playoff) - I think the PAC is done for the playoff

ACC - Clemson has a bad loss; if NC State beats Clemson and Miami beats VT, ND could have a win over both ACCCG participants - do you still pick the conference champ there?

SEC - No shot here, either Bama or GA

Big 12 - NO CCG, and they have a history of beating each other up

B1G - put this in the maybe column - depends on which 1 loss team wins

Both Bama and Georgia. It's bound to happen that the sec gets two teams in the playoffs. They will be the only conference to do this as long as it's just a 4 team playoff.

 

[beachcardinal]

GREAT victory last night!

But why do most articles talk about ND as a playoff contender? ESPN even went so far as to say ND is a lock for the playoffs at 11-1. Sorry, but I just don't see it. I'm going to bite on this and take a deep look at our playoff chances - KNOWING 100% THAT WE MUST WIN OUT TO EVEN BE IN THE CONVERSATION. So yeah, 1 game at a time, but this is what being a fan is all about!

In an effort to clarify the playoffs, I like to look at each Power 5 conference and see how ND stacks up. Rankings are great and all, but there is a committee, and I think this is the way they look at it. You have to start with the conference champ of each. They are certainly weighted highest with that marquee championship game victory. So for ND to get in, WE HAVE TO BE MARKEDLY BETTER THAN AT LEAST 2 POWER 5 CONFERENCE CHAMPS. As you will see, there is a complicating factor this year in Georgia. Let's take a look...

ACC
We play 5 ACC teams, and this year that includes NC State and Miami, who currently lead their respective divisions. If we beat both of them, that looks pretty good. Clemson is a wildcard here. They could win it all, and as the defending champ, I think they get the edge at 12-1 over ND at 11-1. So we need to root for Clemson to lose 1 more. At NC State is probably the only shot before the championship game, where we root like hell for Miami!

Big 12
Really wide open. TCU if undefeated will beat us out. Oklahoma and OSU each have 1 loss. I think a Big 12 champ with 1 loss also beats us out, since we have no common opponents. So we need TCU to lose a couple, and the OK schools to beat each other up. With a championship game the odds improve, but we need some things to happen.

Big 10
Also wide open. Any undefeated or 1 loss conference champ will edge us out, except MSU. So we need to root for Sparty HARD! PSU and Wisky have to lose 2. OSU needs to lose 1. I just don't see us edging out a Big 10 champ. Way too much has to happen.

Pac 12
Throw out the South. We beat out any champ from there. In the North, we would hold the edge on Stanford, but need either of the Washingtons to lose 1 more. Highly probable.

SEC
No way they are ever excluded. Right now, this is a 2 team conference. Alabama and Georgia. Everyone else is mediocre to bad. Not bad enough that they couldn't trip up one of the big boys. A Bama-Bulldog championship matchup is very likely. And where does that leave us? If Georgia wins, I actually think we have the edge over Bama. Yeah, I said it. If Bama wins, a 1 loss Georgia gets in as a 2nd SEC team. In that scenario, I think we are out. I can't see us beating out 3 other Power 5 champs.

So looking at it logically, I think it's pretty obvious that anyone saying an 11-1 ND is a LOCK for the playoffs is just stupid.

I think we would almost certainly be ahead of the Pac 12 champ. I think there is a decent shot at beating out the ACC champ. Probably a toss up on the Big 12. No way for the Big 10 and SEC. Throw Georgia into the mix as a 1 loss runner up, and we really need the cards to fall.

Of course the response to this if confronted will be, "There's still a lot of football to be played!" Yeah, a lot can happen. But it isn't just up to ND winning. We have to watch the scoreboards from here on out!

If you win out and you are Miami only loss you are in. If Miami and Stanford lose to someone other than you then even if you beat them you are out.

 

[NDSMC78]

Both Bama and Georgia. It's bound to happen that the sec gets two teams in the playoffs. They will be the only conference to do this as long as it's just a 4 team playoff.

The black helicopters are coming for you.

 

[ODommer]

If you win out and you are Miami only loss you are in. If Miami and Stanford lose to someone other than you then even if you beat them you are out.

One thing that would help us the most, if we do win out, is for UGA to beat Bama by 7 to 10 points... That would really boost our SOS and might knock Bama out of the big 4, by exposing their weak SOS...

 

[Kelso86]

GREAT victory last night!

But why do most articles talk about ND as a playoff contender? ESPN even went so far as to say ND is a lock for the playoffs at 11-1. Sorry, but I just don't see it. I'm going to bite on this and take a deep look at our playoff chances - KNOWING 100% THAT WE MUST WIN OUT TO EVEN BE IN THE CONVERSATION. So yeah, 1 game at a time, but this is what being a fan is all about!

In an effort to clarify the playoffs, I like to look at each Power 5 conference and see how ND stacks up. Rankings are great and all, but there is a committee, and I think this is the way they look at it. You have to start with the conference champ of each. They are certainly weighted highest with that marquee championship game victory. So for ND to get in, WE HAVE TO BE MARKEDLY BETTER THAN AT LEAST 2 POWER 5 CONFERENCE CHAMPS. As you will see, there is a complicating factor this year in Georgia. Let's take a look...

ACC
We play 5 ACC teams, and this year that includes NC State and Miami, who currently lead their respective divisions. If we beat both of them, that looks pretty good. Clemson is a wildcard here. They could win it all, and as the defending champ, I think they get the edge at 12-1 over ND at 11-1. So we need to root for Clemson to lose 1 more. At NC State is probably the only shot before the championship game, where we root like hell for Miami!

Big 12
Really wide open. TCU if undefeated will beat us out. Oklahoma and OSU each have 1 loss. I think a Big 12 champ with 1 loss also beats us out, since we have no common opponents. So we need TCU to lose a couple, and the OK schools to beat each other up. With a championship game the odds improve, but we need some things to happen.

Big 10
Also wide open. Any undefeated or 1 loss conference champ will edge us out, except MSU. So we need to root for Sparty HARD! PSU and Wisky have to lose 2. OSU needs to lose 1. I just don't see us edging out a Big 10 champ. Way too much has to happen.

Pac 12
Throw out the South. We beat out any champ from there. In the North, we would hold the edge on Stanford, but need either of the Washingtons to lose 1 more. Highly probable.

SEC
No way they are ever excluded. Right now, this is a 2 team conference. Alabama and Georgia. Everyone else is mediocre to bad. Not bad enough that they couldn't trip up one of the big boys. A Bama-Bulldog championship matchup is very likely. And where does that leave us? If Georgia wins, I actually think we have the edge over Bama. Yeah, I said it. If Bama wins, a 1 loss Georgia gets in as a 2nd SEC team. In that scenario, I think we are out. I can't see us beating out 3 other Power 5 champs.

So looking at it logically, I think it's pretty obvious that anyone saying an 11-1 ND is a LOCK for the playoffs is just stupid.

I think we would almost certainly be ahead of the Pac 12 champ. I think there is a decent shot at beating out the ACC champ. Probably a toss up on the Big 12. No way for the Big 10 and SEC. Throw Georgia into the mix as a 1 loss runner up, and we really need the cards to fall.

Of course the response to this if confronted will be, "There's still a lot of football to be played!" Yeah, a lot can happen. But it isn't just up to ND winning. We have to watch the scoreboards from here on out!

"Of course the response to this if confronted will be, "There's still a lot of football to be played!" Yeah, a lot can happen. But it isn't just up to ND winning. We have to watch the scoreboards from here on out!"

So true! But -- I hope the message that Kelly is sending to staff and players is -- "We can only control the next 5 games. Let's take care of our own business and let the chips fall where they may!"