If you read my full post my ask is I am not asking Patterson to be a great or even very good QB. To be honest until he develops I will not know. I have never seen any tape on him. This is what I do know. The biggest negative impact on the Michigan offense last year was the play of the QB. Even when Speight was the starter he was making significant mistakes the worse example being the UF game. It was even worse after his injury and teams stopped respecting the pass and stacked the box. So just having an average Div I QB in my opinions will do wonders. You want to declare someone who was considered the best pocket prospect in his class as completely broken after two years of college football, fine. I will take my chances that he was young and up against the best power teams of the SEC West. Ole Miss did not stack up talent wise. Jim Harbaugh is a very savvy play designer. He will put his QB's in a position to succeed just like he did for O'Korn against OSU. How do you pull the following off? OSU knows there is a bomb at QB and Harbaugh's staff pulls a rabbit that could have won the game if O'Korn makes a simple Div I read.
The Michigan offense failed last year because the run game was just decent and not good enough to overcome a black hole at QB. Contrast to ND. ND had a dominant running game. Yet when Wimbush was asked to pass the ball he struggled even against doormats. I will give him props that he seems to make good decisions unlike Ian Book. He might miss the throw. But it is at least not to the other team.
Here is the crux of my argument. As great a spread and shredder as Wimbush is, he has the same failures of the UM QB's. Its just that they were masked by the best Oline in college football. Just as UM's QB play can go nowhere but up, ND line play can go nowhere but down. It is statistically possible that ND will generate two top ten linemen and Shea Patterson could be as bad as John O'Korn. What I do know is Wimbush as a 3rd year player could not complete 50% of his passes with pretty good skill players around him and of course a top ten running attack.
I'm a math guy. Classic MIN/MAX from calculus. Do you think Wimbush will improve more than the Oline will go down in performance? Jim Harbaugh has a history of getting something out of a QB if he is decent. He figured out how to use Alex Smith, played to Kapernicks strengths, got something out of Jake Ruddock, and turned Wilton Speight into a 1st, the 1st QB recruited by Al Borges to start a Div I game as a QB.
So no I am not too concerned that Patterson did not have good games against the superior SEC teams. If Shea Patterson is 2016 Wilton Speight I will take that. This is theoretical best case as a UM fan. The 1996 UM was in a similar situation in that bad QB play and pedestrian line play led to a disappointing year. The dominant defense was completely masked. 1997 was turned around because Brian Griese managed the team. He was not great. But he had a pulse. As a fan that is what I am looking and hoping for out of Patterson. You have a sustaining offense that just eats some clock and the defense can go the rest of the way. Look at the half splits and the narrative was the same. The defense wore out as UM had difficulty sustaining drives even against bad teams. You give that defense a blow plus having some depth they could carry the team. Then you are not giving up long drives to Wisc and OSU because you have gassed your defense.
So in summary I see the equation is the odds are that a 3rd year Patterson will be a significant improvement over 2017 QB play. I'm making the assumption that the UM line play is only margionally better and the only improvement is picking up stunts which was a pre snap problem. I think that the improvement there will be greater than what can come out of a 4th year Wimbush minus a Oline that must come down. It may be that Patterson only made plays against bad teams. But Wimbush could not even do that even when in a perfect situation. He had multiple sub 50% completion games against doormats. Of course ND cleaned up because they ran for 3 billion yards.
So yes if Shea Patterson as the number one QB recruit can't do in his 3rd year what Wilton Speight did I will shake my fists at the recruiting agencies and take up curling. I will take my chances with the unknown. I feel that I have a good read on Wimbush. As bad as QB play was for UM in their bowl game, Wimbush technically did worse in that he was pulled. The strength of UM's defense last year was the secondary. And one of those corners on the number one pass defense is being pushed by another young player, thus me surmising if a 3 corner one safety look would be an interesting scheme. Regardless of how well ND runs, that is what I am looking at what Wimbush will have to succeed against.
Regardless I applaud these two teams are playing each other as I would rather see Michigan lose to a bad team in an entertaining game then steam roll a cupcake.
Wow. You sure type a lot for someone who has no idea what he's talking about.
Let's get started:
(1) Shea Patterson was not "Up and Down" against quality competition.....he flat-out sucked, every time. He wasn't decent or "young but talented", he SUCKED against quality competition. And that wasn't just elite SEC competition, it was also against Cal from the No-Defense Pac12 and against Teams like Texas A&M, who barely even field a defense. Seriously, please point to even 1 good game he had against a quality CFB oponent...JUST 1. I'll wait.
(2) Wimbush ABSOLUTELY made plays in 2017. Not only that, he made plays against quality competition (something Shea has never done).
- Against USC (Pac12 Champ), he made plays
- Against Mich St (better than Mich), made plays
- Against NC St (Top25 opponent), made plays
You apparently don't have any read on Wimbush at all. Not to mention the fact that you're likely to face a MUCH improved Wimbush in 2018, as he makes the typical "2nd Year Jump"
(3) Michigan's OL is going to be hot garbage, especially at OT. That's just reality. Patterson is at his worst when he's pressured....which Michigan's OL will ensure happens every snap.
(4) Counting on major regression from ND's OL is unwise. We actually return 4 players who started multiple games along the OL in 2017 in Bars (LG), Mustipher (C), Kraemer (RG), and Hainsey (RT). Additionally, out "least experienced player" will also be our most talented, Liam Eichenberg (LT). He's a 3rd Year player who the coaches have said was the 2nd Most talented OL on the team in 2017, behind Nelson, but didn't start because he wasn't consistent enough yet. That means his own coaches said Eichenberg was MORE TALENTED than a Top10 Overall Pick at OT,Mike McGlinchey...while McGlinchey was still on the team and starting at LT!! Brian Kelly has had a Future 1st Round Pick start at LT for every single season he's been at ND (Zach Martin, Ronnie Stanley, Mike McGlinchey), and I'd expect that streak to continue with Liam Eichenberg there.
Overall, the ND OL may take a small step back despite all the talent and experience it returns, just because of how good Quenton Nelson was ... But the Michigan OL will likely regress MORE than the ND OL will, due to the fact that Michigan lost its only player capable of actually playing OT at a Div I level
(don't even get me started on "players" like Bushell-Beaetty, Runyan, or James "Defensive Tackle" Hudson)
Do you actually live in a world of facts, or do you just makeup whatever BS helps you get out of bed each day?