I'm pretty sure Michigan will have improved over 2017 but nobody is sure that their offense especially will have caught up in only the 2nd week. However it would very TYPICAL for Kelly's squad to come out flat get in a punting contest for 3 qtrs.
NOTRE DAME--MICHIGAN, Labor Day Vegas Odds
- Thread starter Duo
- Start date
Actually I have used facts. Or I should more accurately state I have attempted to state my case with statistics. The difference between me and FriedmanIP is I have said I am hoping that Patterson is a decent QB. Not great, not a superstar. I just want Brian Griese numbers from 1997. I'll take 18-30 210 yards one INT, one TD. I think we would both agree that Patterson's numbers against Alabama, Auburn, and LSU, the three premier teams in the SEC west were bad. However, almost all QB's had bad numbers against those defenses. My take is any different QB has a better opportunity to do better. Patterson was the highest rated QB in his class. Does not mean anything until he competes. One thing I do know is he is better than O'Korn. Harbaugh's specialty is QB. He has taken struggling QB's at the college and pro level and figured out how to scheme to their strengths. So I am hopefully.
I absolutely agree with you on your analysis of Wimbush. The eyeball test backs what I see with the stats. Last year he missed throws regardless of situation. Any maybe that is the hope that he figures out what he is doing wrong throwing the ball.
I think I have thrown out plenty of stats on why I think the UM defense could be very good. I depend heavily on football outsiders as for unpaid content. I think they do a very good job accounting for difficulty. Winning 70-0 against a MAC doormat should just be thrown out or at least most of it.
In terms of line play you should read the article on mgoblog labeled "Borges disease". The author Brian Cook does a really good job elaborating on what I have been trying to tell FriedmanIP. I as a fan am a fault too because I thought having Frey on the staff was a great move. The problem was UM had no identity. They recruited power and asked them to zone. The body type and skill set are different. How good could UM have been if they had run power from the beginning? They certainly had enough to take to OSU.
You are correct UM was about last in sacks, hurries, hits, and general destruction. But as someone who watched these games much was not individuals being defeated. It was inexplicable failures to get the proper out. I would be more concerned if linemen were failing on technique. And that could still happen at the tackle positions. But the other guys when engaged seemed to do just fine. Cook's theory is that there were too many cooks in the pot pardon the pun on Cook. If not you may be right UM is in a world of hurt and Harbaugh is on the hot seat. Which is why this game is compelling. I think he has to win or else. And that makes for the most intriguing and best football.
I prefer scout.com because they do not require players to come to their camp. The position grades for UM' receiver class were 1, 15, 23, and 29 with DPJ leading the way at .9925. DPJ could be a bust as you still have to do it on the field before you get accolades. Which is why I never talked him up. There is a reason he is labeled the best football player out of the state of Michigan since Charles Rogers. And you should know what Rogers did. I did take a 2nd look at Mack and did not realize that he had been hurt half the season. So 3 catches a game by a TE is pretty good. Pro rating that out to an entire season that is 40-45 catches. Nothing to sneeze at. Pretty much what Black would have done if he had not injured himself.
Time of possession is a misleading stat. Who had the ball more? A team that gets off 3 straight out completions in 40 seconds or a single FB plunge so that the clock keeps running. Total plays is what matters. What time of possession an reflect is a team that has a dominant run game that can take the air out of the game. On average a football team will have 12 meaningful possessions. One of the reasons why a TO is so deadly. A TO not only gives the other team a great scoring opportunity, you have just wasted 8% of your chances.
The significance of the nine possessions is that is in my opinion how far a first team can take a team. It is expected especially with 75 man rosters in the NFL that programs including ND usually expect the two deep. If UM really had a Bill Parcells style possession offense then this might have worked by shortening the game, except UM could not shorten the game. Did not help turning the ball over 5 times. Even in the NFL where games are shorter a down linemen who plays 90% of the snaps is extraordinary. Only the true ironmen can play an entire game.
So the 105 plays that I charted occurred over 27 drives out of 39. The total amount of the game as measured by opposing drives is 69%. The total number of plays run by those 3 teams was 180 plays. The last 12 drives generated 75 plays and 50 points.
If you just want to troll the heck out of me fine. I have made my case using the data available. I did not say that the other 30-50% of the game did not count. That is why they lost. You ask for me to use numbers to make a case and then claim I did not.
I made a statement that I thought the UM defense was good last year but got put on an island because the offense did not do their job to sustain drives or score points. If they had a 2 deep like 2016 they could have sustained. But they had a single good line.
First 27 drives 105 plays 368 yards and 24 points scored. Next 12 drives 75 plays 50 points. 66% of the points were scored in the 30% of the game if measured by possessions.
To me that is a team hitting the wall because of depth. I would agree with you that in 2017 that is what they are and their record reflected it. That is why I am hopeful that the development of meaningful two deep players will cover this vulnerability. If this is not the case, the defense will have the same metrics as 2017. Start strong, and give up a couple late scores in the 4th quarter.
I will not deny the PSU game. They looked really bad and PSU had a great game plan and made all of their plays. As I said before football outsiders measures on a curve. You get less credit for beating inferior teams. I graded out the last three teams that you mentioned. And as you stated, UM was the only team to lose their bowl game. So the Big10 might have been a little bit tougher then people gave credit to.
The Oline had problems. Less so as the season went on. They certainly were not very good. At the end of the year they were exactly what the stats showed. They were okay at running, not very good at pass protection, had shoddy QB play that magnified everything, and inexperienced receivers.
What I expect for next year is if they stick to power, have decent QB play, and have experienced receivers the offense will do okay. I would take 1997.
Here is what I really do not understand. Regardless of our disagreements on UM Oline play I do not understand why you equate Patterson with Speight, Peters, and O'Korn. I think Peters has a shot. It was only his 2nd year. He clearly did not have everything down. All things being equal Patterson just from a random statistical perspective has to be better. If Patterson equals O'Korn then yes I agree with you UM will lose next year to every good team.
Wow. You can't make this BS up.
So your defense was on the field too long to be good....even though they were on the field for the same or less time than your opponents?
But you're not a homer......lol
Michigan's 2017 defense wasn't good against quality opponents....simply because it wasn't that good
You don't get worn down when you dominant the ToP by over 5 minutes, as Michigan did against South Carolina
Pathetic attempt
So a summary of a tale of two cities or in this case two fantasies. In FriedmanIP's world, Paterson equals O'Korn. UM has not fixed their Oline issues and struggles to sustain drives. The line is a sieve, cannot pass protect and Paterson cannot make a read to save his life. The UM defense keeps UM in the game. But the defense flags midway through the 2nd half and Notre Dame scores 17 unanswered points to win 31 to 10 with Alize Mack catching the go ahead TD.
In hfhmilkman's fantasy world the line is serviceable. James Hudson is the surprise starter at RT beating out the more seasoned but less dynamic incumbents. Patterson buoyed by four now sophomore receivers and a billion TE's does not have to be superstar and gets his 18-30 and 210 yards. Wimbush is befuddled by a Don Brown special that has been in the works al summer. Brian Kelly has one shot to win the RPS wars but Wimbush overthrows a wide open Mack. UM's 2 deep keeps the 1st team fresh and UM comes out with a hard earned 20 to 10 victory.
Only in our dreams I suppose and I will have to wait until Sept to find out. Someone asked why bother talking about it months ahead. Personally I love debate and I hope FriedmanIP has enjoyed this correspondence as much as I have.
In hfhmilkman's fantasy world the line is serviceable. James Hudson is the surprise starter at RT beating out the more seasoned but less dynamic incumbents. Patterson buoyed by four now sophomore receivers and a billion TE's does not have to be superstar and gets his 18-30 and 210 yards. Wimbush is befuddled by a Don Brown special that has been in the works al summer. Brian Kelly has one shot to win the RPS wars but Wimbush overthrows a wide open Mack. UM's 2 deep keeps the 1st team fresh and UM comes out with a hard earned 20 to 10 victory.
Only in our dreams I suppose and I will have to wait until Sept to find out. Someone asked why bother talking about it months ahead. Personally I love debate and I hope FriedmanIP has enjoyed this correspondence as much as I have.
Michigan's OL did NOT get better late in the season.
Michigan SUCKED running the ball against Ohio State and Wisconsin late in the season just as much as they did against Michigan State and Penn State earlier in the season
Michigan's OL just SUCKED BALLS against every opponent with a pulse......every single one
These excuses are getting worse and worse
Issues with your fantasy land
- Patterson had better WRs at Ole Miss...and still sucked balls every time he faced a real team
- Michigan's OL is horrible, and cannot run the ball against a single opponent with a pulse
- Michigan's "Don Brown Special" has been allowing ever single quality opponent to bend them over and cram the ball the down their......throat
- Michigan hasn't been able to beat a Top25 to on the road in OVER 10 YEARS!!!
Too bad you can't deal in actual facts!
Here is the CBS mock draft for next year. They do top 100, so basically first 3 rounds.
ND has three 1st Rounders on Defense in their mock draft.
#17 Te'Von Coney
#27 Julian Love
#29 Jerry Tillery
Michigan has one. (Gary at #3).
Overall each team has four in the top 100.
https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft...-a-super-early-look-at-the-top-100-prospects/
ND has three 1st Rounders on Defense in their mock draft.
#17 Te'Von Coney
#27 Julian Love
#29 Jerry Tillery
Michigan has one. (Gary at #3).
Overall each team has four in the top 100.
https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft...-a-super-early-look-at-the-top-100-prospects/
The following is a quote about Michigan’s Defense (and then offense) when asked to compare it to UGA last year:
“I think Michigan's defense is good, but not as good as people make it out to be. Their safety play is average and their overall team speed on defense isn't top-notch. They played some bad offenses last year. They'll be a tough matchup, but they don't have the size or speed of the Georgia defense.
But let's be honest about something else, Notre Dame's offense missed A LOT of chances last year against Georgia. A LOT.
The other thing that everyone leaves out when talking about Michigan is their offense is hot garbage and their OL is a work in progress. Their OL has a tougher matchup going against the ND front seven than the ND OL has going against the Michigan front seven.
Everyone also loves talking about Shea Patterson, but so far in his career he has been a turnover machine and his team's weren't any good at Ole Miss. He had better athletes around him at Ole Miss than he will at Michigan, although the young Michigan WR's are talented.”
“I think Michigan's defense is good, but not as good as people make it out to be. Their safety play is average and their overall team speed on defense isn't top-notch. They played some bad offenses last year. They'll be a tough matchup, but they don't have the size or speed of the Georgia defense.
But let's be honest about something else, Notre Dame's offense missed A LOT of chances last year against Georgia. A LOT.
The other thing that everyone leaves out when talking about Michigan is their offense is hot garbage and their OL is a work in progress. Their OL has a tougher matchup going against the ND front seven than the ND OL has going against the Michigan front seven.
Everyone also loves talking about Shea Patterson, but so far in his career he has been a turnover machine and his team's weren't any good at Ole Miss. He had better athletes around him at Ole Miss than he will at Michigan, although the young Michigan WR's are talented.”
On the flip side is the “opening game” scenario in which I think Michigan has advantages in.
1) Having the entire off-season to plan for one game: I’ve seen this scenario so many times. Michigan’s offense was bad, but they will spend months preparing it for ND. The OL will be scripted & overally prepared for ND’s defense. The rest of the year who knows, but having months to prepare for one game helps the UM OL a lot.
2) The opposite as number 1 for ND. I think ND’s OL is going to be great. But the first game they will have guys playing new positions. As they gel they will be a top 5 OL in the country. But opening game you give the advantage to the DL until the OL gels.
3) Normally home field is an advantage on opening day & against a hated rival. But ND’s former advantage has all but vanished. The atmosphere is no longer intimidating at all. Away teams frequently talk about how nice ND is, how historic the field is, how much fun it was to play there. That’s not what you want to hear from visiting teams. You want them to pray the clock runs out fast so they can get the hell out of there.
1) Having the entire off-season to plan for one game: I’ve seen this scenario so many times. Michigan’s offense was bad, but they will spend months preparing it for ND. The OL will be scripted & overally prepared for ND’s defense. The rest of the year who knows, but having months to prepare for one game helps the UM OL a lot.
2) The opposite as number 1 for ND. I think ND’s OL is going to be great. But the first game they will have guys playing new positions. As they gel they will be a top 5 OL in the country. But opening game you give the advantage to the DL until the OL gels.
3) Normally home field is an advantage on opening day & against a hated rival. But ND’s former advantage has all but vanished. The atmosphere is no longer intimidating at all. Away teams frequently talk about how nice ND is, how historic the field is, how much fun it was to play there. That’s not what you want to hear from visiting teams. You want them to pray the clock runs out fast so they can get the hell out of there.
Yeah. There is nothing wrong with a good, healthy discussion among opposing fans.
Even if I don’t agree, I can always talk to people who are in touch with reality.
Under this scenario, Notre Dame would have to survive the early emotion and prep of michigan
It is the nature of college football. You have to have a two deep to beat good teams if you have a shakey offense. That is why teams if they have the personal play their 2nd best linemen 30-40% of the snaps. Its not whether you had more or less snaps then the other team, it is the length of your endurance. I'm not a football player but a basketball player. No matter how much rest I had and how much I properly hydrated, there was a upper limit where my performance would degrade significantly. I have also weight trained for three decades. I can take 5 minute breaks between reps and it will not matter. Football is the same thing. A Dlineman has only so many explosions in him before he is gone. Don't you think it is strange you have never seen an offensive lineman cramp up?
I do not know SC or WISC well. I do know that OSU has a valid two deep. Since you have Wisc friends ask who is in their two deep rotation. If I recall WISC runs a base 3-4. I know they have a good group of linebackers. So they could probably take their best rush linebackers and put at end in passing situations.
So yeah I think a typical lineman has about 40-50 snaps in him in which he can play at 100% effectiveness. Teams like Alabama that are completely loaded are great because there is almost no drop off when they play their 2nd team. Maurice Hurst, UM's best Dlineman participated in 643 snaps, which insane.
I suggest look at football outsiders and look at snap counts. Remember pro teams have a 48 man roster unlike college where teams generally have 80-85 man rosters with preferred walkons. The pro game is also shorter because the clock keep running if a runner goes out of bounds. Yet only a handful of these best of the best can play the entire game.
UM did everything they could to shorten games and shorten the number of possessions. But it was not enough.
You asked me to find a game where UM ran the ball well. I gave you OSU. UM running backs ran the ball 28 times for 135 yards. That is 4.8 ypa which is not suck. Considering that OSU had a very good run defense and knew UM had passing issues, that is pretty good. Sometimes I get the feeling you are Devin Nunes'ing me when you demand information from me. Not reading it.
Trivia question for you. When was the last time UM did beat a Top25 team on the road. I will give you a hint. A whole bunch of trollers from South Bend talked up that game also. I will be looking forward to September.
I'm not willing to pay for the content sites. I can't really comment on where each player might be projected to go since its all an eyeball test, especially the national news sites. Don't get me wrong. I am sure all of those individuals are pretty good. That is why I always rely on statistics. Be it teams or individuals. You noticed I have not talked up any individuals on defense because the only statistic I have are the team stats. Though I do agree with you the eyeball test for Gary is he could be a dominant player. I will be interested to see what he can do not that is a strong side end for an entire season. But some of these pundits are guessing. I have seen pundits that have neither Hill or Love in their top ten and this guy has them 2nd or 3rd. I'm also not sure if Winovich's game will translate to the NFL. He would have to be in the right system as when you are that small you have to be an insane pass rusher.
So I did a little bit more research this evening. I encourage folks to do their own. Since Wimbush is the key to the ND offense I asked the question have their been spread QB's who made a big jump in accuracy. I do not have access to massive databases. So I just walked spread teams. For example take a look at QB's at Oregon and ND. So far I cannot find an individual who made a big percentage jump. The basketball analogy would be predict Xavier Simpson's 3pt percentage for the 2018-2019. I feel pretty confident that since he can't hit more than 60% of his FT's, he will never approach 30% and will be mired in the mid 20ties. I had to go all the way back to Clauson's freshman year to find a Notre Dame QB with an inferior rating. So a few numbers.
Wilton Speight 2017 121.9
Brandon Peters 2017 113.6
John O'Korn 2017 102.1
Clauson 2007 103.9
Wimbush 2017 121.4
We can say Wimbush won games that those individuals could not. But that crummy number came from somewhere. It came from missing wide open receivers. Who on this list thinks Xavier Simpson is going to hit 80% of his FT's next year? Not me. See I'm not a homer
Wimbush was an effective college QB in 2017 because he could run the ball. If he has to pass he generated numbers equal to Wilton Speight. Maybe he pulls off a Dixon(Oregon 2007). But every one of the spread QB's I have found had good accuracy as 1st year starters. They cleaned up mistakes and INT's. But the accuracy was always there. Even a shaky guy like Tommy Rees had a career completion percentage approaching 60%.
So I will come out and say if Wimbush approaches 60% completion I see no reason why ND could not make a case for a BCS run. That would put Wimbush in the 135 range. But with the top receivers gone I see too many unknowns. If there was a Braylon Edwards type senior ready to go, I would say maybe. But right now I see too many birds in the bush.
Wilton Speight 2017 121.9
Brandon Peters 2017 113.6
John O'Korn 2017 102.1
Clauson 2007 103.9
Wimbush 2017 121.4
We can say Wimbush won games that those individuals could not. But that crummy number came from somewhere. It came from missing wide open receivers. Who on this list thinks Xavier Simpson is going to hit 80% of his FT's next year? Not me. See I'm not a homer
Wimbush was an effective college QB in 2017 because he could run the ball. If he has to pass he generated numbers equal to Wilton Speight. Maybe he pulls off a Dixon(Oregon 2007). But every one of the spread QB's I have found had good accuracy as 1st year starters. They cleaned up mistakes and INT's. But the accuracy was always there. Even a shaky guy like Tommy Rees had a career completion percentage approaching 60%.
So I will come out and say if Wimbush approaches 60% completion I see no reason why ND could not make a case for a BCS run. That would put Wimbush in the 135 range. But with the top receivers gone I see too many unknowns. If there was a Braylon Edwards type senior ready to go, I would say maybe. But right now I see too many birds in the bush.
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Regarding Wimbush: We do not know if he has turned the corner. All we know is that he appears to be better than last year based on spring training results. If this is the Truth and baring injury we will be on the path to a BCS run. If not we will have a good season but not what we hoped for. What some Michigan fans seem to be doing is wishful thinking. We have Shea Patterson now and he is the greatest since sliced bread with coach H the greatest in the world since Bo we surely will beat Notre Dame and OSU. First all we do not know how good Shea is going to be and if its based on history and if like Wimbush's history they will have a good season not great. Personally, if Shea progresses than it could be a very close game if not UM is in for 8-5 9-4 season. Even if Shea is all what wishful wolverines think he is I believe UM is a 10-3 team
I was thinking about this last night. I would be interested to know who made the quote. I think the speed issue is a little bit misleading because of some depth issues. One of the issues was that UM had to play McCray and Furbush a lot. Both are really good thumpers. Furbush was used as sort of a down lineman at LB'er, acting as a defensive fullback so that Bush could clean up. But there is a reason why you want your space clearers on the line. I had mentioned in other threads the infamous wheel route that teams would use on McCray. Bush at MLB and Hudson at Viper are really fast. Last year UM had a bunch of freshman linebackers who just were not ready to start every down. There are like 5 guys competing for 1.5 spots. I use the half because there may be a 3-4 and a 4-3 look. They may all as FriedmanIP using his favorite word suck. We will see come September. They will be more "Bushlike" in that they will have exceptional speed. Speed does not always equate to effectiveness as what makes Bush good is his mental speed as much as his physical speed. But they are guys Don Brown wanted and got. In terms of speed on the Dline that is Winovich's game. I don't have to say anything about Gary as that guy is monster. He played a lot of 3-4 END and 3 technique tackle last year. I'm really excited on what he can do as a 290 pound end with that kind of speed. As I mentioned before the UM corners graded really well at coverage.
All I have to say is UM had 42 sacks last year and the top team had 45. Yes, a blitz happy Dcoordinator helps. But you do not get that many sacks if you have a bunch of plodders. The only way to do that is get at the QB. Now one of those guys in Hurst is gone. Without the heart condition he is probably a 1st or 2nd day draft pick. So that is a huge loss. There are other people ready to go. But it sort of like those two ND lineman taken in the top ten. They could be really good but are not going to be as good as Hurst last year.
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You may not have read all of my threads, but I'm not asking for Patterson to be a superstar. I'm just looking for decent. FriedmanIP made a good point that Patterson never had a great game against great completion. My retort is none of the last years QB's could have even a decent game against bad competition. Regardless of what Patterson did he still is a 3rd year QB who was rated the best HS pocket passer prospect. He completed 62% of his passes against someone.
In terms of spring talk, be careful. Every program is excited. Some of the ND beat writers are really good and have a more modest expectation. They are looking at a completion percentage of 52-53 with a small reduction in yards per completion. I could not stand John Navarre because he missed throws also. I think Wimbush's progression is going to be similar. He may be able to improve 2-3 points as a senior and if he starts next year maybe another 2 points. My guess is Wimbush will not be starting as everyone is really excited about Jurkovec.
I think Paterson does have potential no doubt about, and so does Wimbush, I read somewhere in high school he completed pretty near 70% passes. Potential is there and reality in another thing.
A Rivals analyst (former player & coach) who is breaking down Michigan film for the ND season opener.
You have to eventually ask yourself the question; if Michigan’s D is so good why did they get torched by every good team they played?
According to analysts, it’s because they aren’t as good as they think they are. They are a top 20 defense, but not an elite top 3 or 5 defense like they think they are. Watching film & looking at results analyst saw a lot a flaws against good offenses last year. They can believe they are elite, but the film & results show otherwise.
For example, since Michigan’s DE Gary keeps being brought up. In HS Gary’s team had easily the best Defense in the country. They had multiple 5 Star recruits & like 7 D1 players on the defense. Wimbush’s offense had him. Wimbush beat Gary’s team to win the state title & Wimbush dominated in the game. Does that mean anything now? Nope. Now we are in college & what Wimbush & Patterson did in HS doesn’t compare to what they do in college. And so far Wimbush has actually done a lot more.
Well, I do not think UM was top 3-5 either for the reasons I described. They were not complete. They did not have a suitable backups on the Dline and backups at LB'er were specialists only. I think 10 is about right. If everything goes right I think they could take that next step. But with 2 slower LB'ers not a top 5.
If I remember correctly, didn’t Michigan lose both their top DT & LB? So they lost their two best players up the middle?
As we all know football is a team game. It is also he reason why ND won more games last year. If UM and ND had met last year, especially later in the year they most certainly would have won. This may seem tedious but all roads to lead to Wimbush. Makes sense as the QB is the most important position. I personally do not think Notre Dame will have a top 10 running offense next year. Kudo's to Brian Kelly's akum if Notre Dame does not miss a beat despite losing not the #1 but the #2 best linemen in all of college football. Its like expecting Kelly Bryant to approach what Deshaun Watson did the year previous. 138 is nothing to sneeze at. Completing 67% of his passes implies Bryant has good accuracy. And that is with an extra 100 passing attempts.
So for me I keep going back to that 49% accuracy number. Wimbush won games against tough opponents. But I would argue that he had to do it as a runner first. Certainly two of the three losses were because of his failures. And also left unsaid he was benched in the bowl game.
I think the UM<>ND game is going to be a real fun game. I think both coaches will be motivated far more than they would even for a game of this import because of what is stake. This is what college football is about. We have all of these questions that depending how they get answered will determine what the fate of who wins. And then again some other crazy thing may happen that we have not even talked about.
One of the things the mgoblog guys do really well is if they want to project a player they look at like players to see what they have done. What would be real cool for a some to look for spread & shred QB's that had completion rates around 50% or ratings of 120-125 at about the same point in their career. If you can't find anyone who improved to the level that you expect from Wimbush, perhaps we do not say it can't happen but it would be unprecedented. Hard for me to comment because I don't know what ND faithful want to see from Wimbush in 2018.
For me I could live with a rating of 135-140 from Patterson. I think that is enough for UM to go 10-2. He would have to do better for UM to do better. I would like to see a repeat of Wilton Speights 2016 stats with better consistency. If Speight could generate a 140 rating as a 3 star picked by Borges in a Harbaugh offense, I think so can Patterson. Its not like the 2016 offense had dominating skill players or a great Oline. FriedmanIP can say what he wants about Ole Miss skill players. Yet I would think that DPJ and Black have a lot more upside then Hoke picks Darboh and Chesson. Butt was a great TE. In 2018, there are now 4 pretty good TE's.
I still would like to see a ND fan take a shot at what they want to see from Wimbush stat wise?
They lost a great DT to graduation. Hurst is a 1st or 2nd day pick if he does not have a heart condition. He generated some pressure numbers from the DT position that were unheard of. Who ever replaces him could be very good and it would still be a downgrade. I don't think Winovich will improve much more. My take is Gary takes another giant leap and becomes unstoppable at SDE. My guess is that Solomon and Dwumfour will be the starters. I heard raves about Dwumfour but its spring camp so I will see when I believe it. Solomon was starting last year when UM went away from the 3-4. The wildcard is Mone. He looked like the next superstar as a freshman. But injuries seem to have sapped his speed. This is his last chance to ever reach his potential.
As mentioned before what UM might lose in Hurst, they will gain in depth. They will have a real 2 deep this year. I don't expect the 2nd unit to be superstars. But I think they will be able to spell the first unit and we can have a 65/35 distribution that I think would be ideal.
McCray and Furbush were the weak links in the defense. Though both solid run stoppers, both also have problems in space. Just as Bush made the big jump from frosh to sophomore, there are a bunch of linebackers ready to start in 2018. My rumor is Devin Gil is the leader. But that means nothing in April. Whoever gets the starting job at SAM will certainly be much faster than McCray.
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Wait....you think rushing for barely 100 yards at 4 yards/carry, in a loss....is good?
That’s one of the 5 examples of Michigan putting up a pathetic rushing attack against a good opponent.
150+ is the minimum for decent rushing game, and nothing below 200 can be termed “good”
This is the point, Michigan’s OL SUCKED against every single quality opponent it gave...both early in the season and late in the season.
Your claims of improvement are total BS
Lol....no
Let’s try this very basic concept again.
Michigan DOMINATED the Time of Possession against South Carolina. Dominated. Over 35 minutes.
But you claim that Michigan didn’t have the ball enough, and that’s why the defense fell apart and lost the game??
But you’re not a homer...????
You have got to be joking!
Michigan lost the game on defense because Michigan LACKED THE TALENT to stop even a fringe Top25 team for 60 minutes.
It’s that simple!
Say it now:
Michigan lacked the talent to stop a fringe Top25 team.
My archive doesn’t show Michigan ever beating a Top25 team on the road....and it goes back over 10 years.
So tell me, when was Michigan last able to luck into a victory? 1936??
So if I’m trolling, you can point to something I said that’s wrong...right?
Or are you so delusional that you hunk reality is trolling now??
You asked for a game. I gave it to you. 5 yards a crack against OSU's defense is pretty good. Was UM good enough to ram the ball down top defenses throat? Absolutely not. They were only decent when not tipping their hand. You asked for one example and I gave you one. If you think 5 ypc carry sucks than we will have to agree to disagree.
I will try one more time. Team one is a hurry up spread team with air raid principles. Play one they throw an incomplete pass clock stops. Play two they throw a complete pass that goes out of bounds. Play three they complete a pass for a 1st down. Clock stops while the offense runs up to keep the defense off balanced. Three plays may have been run yet the 4th play could be being snapped before 35 total seconds have gone off the clock.
Team two is Wisc style power. First run is up the middle. 4 yards gained. After 35 seconds Wisc runs more power up the middle. Another 35 seconds between plays. Wisc runs yes another run and picks up a 1st down and the clock stops while the chains are moved. Yet offense waits until play clock down to 5.
In the second case the exact number of possessions have been run yet the 2nd team has used up over two and a half minutes verses 35 seconds for the 1st. Possession is as useful as using batting average instead of on base percentage or slugging. It will tell you that team is more likely to run and that is about it. Oregon never won the possession numbers. They wore opposing teams out by constant pressure and not letting the defense set. By the 3rd quarter Oregon would be having 3 play 80 yard TD drives because the opposition was completely gassed. Yet on paper the other team should have won.
Now if you look at all of the games UM played the possession numbers are real low. Mainly because UM was trying to take the air out of the ball game. Football is a game of power and explosion, especially for a defensive linemen to be successful. I used to weight train by completing a set of 4-6 reps, wait an interval and do it again. There is a point where I can't do it anymore. If I wait several minutes I may be able to knock out 5 one more time, but if I go back under after 90 seconds I certainly will not get 5 reps. I would have to wait another 15 minutes.
Football is the same thing. Does not matter if the offense had 90 plays and the defense 60. A body has a limit that may be nursed to longer if the intervals are large enough, but eventually you hit it. When I played basketball hard even with rest there is a limit where even with proper hydration I am going to cramp and throw up.
Those dozen guys in the NFL that play 90% of the games are the best of the best. They are worth their money not just because they are good, but they are worth a 2nd player. I showed you the stats on outsiders. Even most of the best of the best generally get a rest. Look at the snap count percentages of the Eagles, the SB winners. They won as much not because they had great line play from their starters, but because they could keep their line fresh. Brandon Graham had enough in the tank to make an explosion move that prevented Tom Brady from doing yet another 2 minute SB victory drive. Why because the Eagles felt confident they could play their backups a third of the total plays. Contrast to Atlanta that was dead meat in overtime.
What the hell are you talking about???
These were Michigan's Rush stats against Ohio St:
36 Carries
100 Yards
2.78 Yards/Carry
That's not "Good", it's not even "Okay....that's downright pathetic
Michigan GAVE UP ~5 YPC to Ohio State.....so they had a "Very Good" rushing day against the "elite defense" at Michigan
Is there anything you don't makeup or get wrong??
Seriously....can you even give 1 game, just 1 game, where Michigan's rushing attack didn't SUCK against a quality opponent??
I'm still waiting...
