NOTRE DAME--MICHIGAN, Labor Day Vegas Odds

[FriedmanIP]

To Friedman. Enjoy the correspondence but gotta get some work done. Tonight I will break Wimbush's stats out. I will track what he did in the following cases. Passes on running downs. 1st and 10, 2nd and 5 or less, 3rd and 2 and less. 2 minutes or less in a half and I will call it passing down regardless. Then lets see where the numbers lie.

You can spend your time however you want...however, what you've suggested is virtually meaningless.

If you want to break something down, go ahead and break-down the following:

• Wimbush's performance (both running and passing) against Top25 opponents
• Patterson's performance (both running and passing) against Top25 opponents
• Michigan's OL and run game against Top25 opponents
  • Ignore Mason Cole
• Notre Dame's OL and run game against Top25 opponents
  • Only grade the 4 returning starters we have (Mustipher, Bars, Kraemer, Hainsey)

Let me guess...we won't be seeing any of these actually meaningful breakdowns from you

lolololol

 

[FriedmanIP]

Let's go ahead and rate Michigan and ND at each positional unit, for Week 1 2018

Scale of 1-10
(10 being "Best in CFB" and 1 being "Not Div I level")

Looking at both "Current Grade" and "Upside Grade"
(what is really there right now, and what could be there if things go "reasonably well" for the unit)

Notre Dame

• QB - Overall: 6 (Current: 4 / Upside: 8)
  • Wimbush has proven he can be "Up and Down", both against lower level and top level teams. High ceiling, seems to be improving, but is still a ?
• RB - Overall: 5 (Current: 3 / Upside: 6)
  • Jones is a solid all-around prospect, but ultimately he's "just a guy" nationally and has yet to really prove himself. Williams has fantastic upside, but isn't a complete back, yet
• WR - Overall: 6 (Current: 4 / Upside: 8)
  • Claypool has ELITE tools, but hasn't quite put it all together yet. Players like Boykin, Young, and McKinley are nice but don't have truly elite and still unproven
• TE - Overall: 7 (Current: 4 / Upside: 9)
  • Mack may be the most talented in the country, but his production hasn't lived up yet. Kmet and Wright also have great, maybe elite tools, as younger players
• OT - Overall: 7 (Current: 4 / Upside: 9)
  • Hainsey is fairly proven already, and 2-3 other players have shown they're competent OTs, so Eichenberg beating them out is a good sign. His upside is truly 1st Round elite.
• OG/C - Overall: 8 (Current: 7 / Upside: 10)
  • Bars and Mustipher are both proven "All-Conference Level" players, and both have All-American potential. Kreamer has high potential and is somewhat proven already as well.
• DT - Overall: 7 (Current: 6 / Upside: 8)
  • Tillery and Bonner are both proven already, with Tillery being a potential 1st Round talent. Depth is somewhat proven as well. However, Bonner's ceiling is "just a guy"
• DE - Overall: 6 (Current: 5 / Upside: 9)
  • Hayes, Kareem, and Okwara all have strong tools, Hayes may have elite tools. They're all somewhat proven, but not fully. Other talent exists, but is unproven
• LB - Overall: 7 (Current: 6 / Upside: 8)
  • Coney and Tranquil are both "All-Conference Level" players already, with really good tools for CFB (size may limit them in NFL). Bilal, Owusu-Kamorah, and others have really good talent, but are unproven.
• CB - Overall: 8 (Current: 7 / Upside: 9)
  • Love was named a 2nd Team All-American. Pride has elite tools, plus proven and talented depth exists in Crawford and Vaughn
• S - Overall: 4 (Current: 3 / Upside: 8)
  • Experience and talent exists with 3-4 former starters returning, plus adding Gilman as a transfer/starter. Upside is high, but needs to be proven on the field

Michigan

• QB - Overall: 6 (Current: 4 / Upside: 8)
  • Patterson has shown he can dominate bad teams, but has yet to succeed against good teams. Seems talented with a high ceiling, but still a ?
• RB - Overall: 5 (Current: 4 / Upside: 5)
  • Higdon is a solid player, but is "just a guy" nationally. Evans is a nice compliment back, but is nothing special
• WR - Overall: 5 (Current: 3 / Upside: 8)
  • The only player close to proven is a former walk-on. Peoples-Jones has good, maybe elite, tools but is totaly unproven. Black has good tools but is unproven and coming off an injury. High potential, but no real proof
• TE - Overall: 7 (Current: 6 / Upside: 8)
  • Gentry and McKeon have good tools and have proven themselves somewhat already, plus there is good balance with Wheatly.
• OT - Overall: 2 (Current: 2 / Upside: 4)
  • Bushell-Beaetty is not a Div 1 OT in a offense that requires pass-blocking, and no OT on the roster has shown they belong on a D1 field not that they have great potential either
• OG/C - Overall: 5 (Current: 4 / Upside: 6)
  • Effective against lower competition already, but completely dominated by good competition. There are some nice tools here, but no one who has really flashed elite tools.
• DT - Overall: 7 (Current: 6 / Upside: 8)
  • Gary has elite tools and is fairly proven as a part-time DT. Mone may once have had tools, but now looks like "just a guy". Soloman seems promsing with strong tools. Other unproven depth exists.
• DE - Overall: 8 (Current: 7 / Upside: 9)
  • Gary has elite tools as part-time DE and Winovich his highly productive. While there is other talent on the roster, it's not yet proven.
• LB - Overall: 7 (Current: 6 / Upside: 9)
  • Bush is an All-Conference level player already, with really good CFB tools (though size may hurt his NFL tools). Hudson is a proven hyrbid with strong upside. Lots of unproven, but talented options exists for the #3 spot and depth
• CB - Overall: 8 (Current: 7 / Upside: 9)
  • Both Long and Hill have good tools, though lack elite size. Both are proven cover CBs already. Some depth also exists.
• S - Overall: 4 (Current: 3 / Upside: 7)
  • Experience and talent exists, though perhaps not in the same players. Utah transfer may move to this position.

 

[nemeth#5]

ya'll are putting a lot of time into proving something that will be decided on the field in a couple months..... just make a wager and be done with it lol.

 

[FriedmanIP]

The if you want to actually compare the total, relative talent on the rosters, you can take those rankings and run them through this chart for the "Relative Value" of each position:

• QB x 2
• RB - x 0.5
• WR - x 0.5
  
• TE - x 0.5
• OT x 1
• OG/C x 1
• DT x 1
• DE x 1
• LB - x 1
• CB - x 0.75
• S - x 0.75

Roster Quality Score, out of max 100 points:
Michigan: 58.5
Notre Dame: 65

So overall, I'd give Notre Dame a somewhat-small, but notable, talent advantage over Michigan

 

[hfhmilkman]

To IPFriedman. I do not have acces to Roster Quality Score. If you insist that Ole Miss had superior players around Patterson, what was Ole Miss's score? Football is ultimately a team game. In my opinion Ole Miss was a demoralized overmatched team that knew the program was ending. Against the best of the SEC they got crushed. But first lets get some stuff out. You give UM QB's a 6 out of 8 yet you say Patterson is trash the exact same number as what is given the ND QB position? What gives. Is Patterson the next coming of John O'Korn or is he a decent QB?

You also have ND corners rated identical to UM corners. UM pass defense was 4th in ypa at 5.95 and 1st overall. ND pass defense was 51st total and in the 30ties at 6.27. UM rush offense last year was 18th despite being in a run heavy conference. ND was 51st and .5ypa worse. Yet this only translates into a difference of 2. UM only lost 2 individuals on their entire two deep. Clearly Hurst was a big loss. You keep using this stat weapon but pick & choose how to use it.

I will leave it on this. Ole Miss minus Patterson was far inferior team to ND minus Wimbush. Patterson had to play a murders row of Alabama, Auburn, and LSU. We know how Wimbush performed against LSU. He did not finish. I will go out on a limb and state that if Wimbush had started against Auburn and Alabama, he would performed as badly as Patterson despite having a better team. Wimbush starting and finishing those games are the same 0-3. That is my stats.

 

[FriedmanIP]

To IPFriedman. I do not have acces to Roster Quality Score. If you insist that Ole Miss had superior players around Patterson, what was Ole Miss's score? Football is ultimately a team game. In my opinion Ole Miss was a demoralized overmatched team that knew the program was ending. Against the best of the SEC they got crushed. But first lets get some stuff out. You give UM QB's a 6 out of 8 yet you say Patterson is trash the exact same number as what is given the ND QB position? What gives. Is Patterson the next coming of John O'Korn or is he a decent QB?

You also have ND corners rated identical to UM corners. UM pass defense was 4th in ypa at 5.95 and 1st overall. ND pass defense was 51st total and in the 30ties at 6.27. UM rush offense last year was 18th despite being in a run heavy conference. ND was 51st and .5ypa worse. Yet this only translates into a difference of 2. UM only lost 2 individuals on their entire two deep. Clearly Hurst was a big loss. You keep using this stat weapon but pick & choose how to use it.

I will leave it on this. Ole Miss minus Patterson was far inferior team to ND minus Wimbush. Patterson had to play a murders row of Alabama, Auburn, and LSU. We know how Wimbush performed against LSU. He did not finish. I will go out on a limb and state that if Wimbush had started against Auburn and Alabama, he would performed as badly as Patterson despite having a better team. Wimbush starting and finishing those games are the same 0-3. That is my stats.

So....more made up BS from you. Thanks!

First of all, Roster Quality Score is my own evaluation...so you're welcome to dispute wherever you want, if you can actually backup those disputes.

Moving on:

• Ole Miss actuall BEAT a Top25 team once Patterson was no longer the QB (Miss State). In short, Ole Miss actually got BETTER after Patterson went down.
• Yes, Patterson has been trash against quality competition. But he's been good against cupcakes. Wimbush has been "Up and Down" against both quality competition and cupcakes. Both have elite tools....so I tried not to be a HOMER (like you are) and view that as a draw, for now
• Michigan was able to defend the pass well against teams that can't pass the ball, which is most of the Big10. But when faced with quality opponents, Michigan again folded...which hurt the score of their CB's. You disagree??
• Michigan's Run Defense and Run Offense we both good against cupcakes...but SUCKED against quality opponents in 2017. That affected both scores, though the upside grade a was still very generous. You disagree??
• Wimbush actually SUCCEEDED against teams like USC, Michigan State, and NC State. Which Patterson opponent would you put on that level, where he had success???

You love avoiding the facts, and running from context like scared little girl.

Try answering the above, point by point.
(I could use the lulz.......lol)

 

[hfhmilkman]

So really interesting numbers for Wimbush as he surprised me. First things I appreciate the aggressiveness of the Brian Kelly offense. Wimbush threw the ball 98 times in rushing situations. The ratio of passing in what I call RS verses PS is 1:2. That is very aggressive. RS equals running situation and PS equals passing situation with RS as the set of 1st and 10, 2nd and 5 or less, 3rd and 2 or less. PS is when that value is higher or if in the last 2 minutes of a half, or when down a lot and having to pass on practically every down.

What is interesting is Wimbush's RS was 49% at 6.85 ypa and his PS was 48% at 6.29 ypa. My expectation was that Wimbush would be killing it on RS passes because teams have to sell out. Yet I also expected him to much worse in pure passing situations. I did not expect these numbers to be this close.

This is my theory Wimbush has 35 pass chunk plays which is pretty good. I define a chunk play as any pass play of 20 yards or more. I was not tabulating running statistics but I'm guessing Wimbush generated at least 15 running chunk plays. So as combo runner passer this is why he has such a good QFR. But some of these very good runners in the mold of a Barrett or Denard Robinson or any QB in the Rich Rodriquez programs have a cap. This is for the same reason Kelly ditched Malik Zaire. Some of these QB's despite having very strong arms are capped by accuracy. There is no reason why Wimbush should have not had at least a 60% completion on RS passes. ND had a top ten offense. I would have expected teams maybe minus Georgia and LSU were forced to play 8 men in the box and linebackers selling out. To FriedmanIP. Does that not bother you?

If you can say with a straight face that ND Oline will only be marginally inferior to the 2017 version, you have nothing to worry about. We will see what happens in Sept

 

[hfhmilkman]

Just one more thing. You list Mack at a 7 despite doing absolutely nothing except get in trouble. Yet DPJ's was rated as the number one receiver prospect in the country gets a 5. Each had the same number of receptions. As I stated before, most true freshman have to figure out route running unless they have academy backgrounds. I would argue that DPJ as a 2nd year player would at least have as much potential as Mack. I would also think that Tarik Black who had 11 receptions in 5 halfs of action despite being a true freshman would at least rate a 7. Why does Mack get a 7? I would argue that DPJ as a number one rated receiver as a 2nd year players and someone not in trouble should be at least equal to Mack.

This is the problem with adjectives. I never talked up the UM receivers because for better or worse they are birds in the bush. Yet you make Mack who has done nothing equal to the 4 TE's that UM has on their roster. I will talk up the UM defense because they have done something.

 

[FriedmanIP]

So really interesting numbers for Wimbush as he surprised me. First things I appreciate the aggressiveness of the Brian Kelly offense. Wimbush threw the ball 98 times in rushing situations. The ratio of passing in what I call RS verses PS is 1:2. That is very aggressive. RS equals running situation and PS equals passing situation with RS as the set of 1st and 10, 2nd and 5 or less, 3rd and 2 or less. PS is when that value is higher or if in the last 2 minutes of a half, or when down a lot and having to pass on practically every down.

What is interesting is Wimbush's RS was 49% at 6.85 ypa and his PS was 48% at 6.29 ypa. My expectation was that Wimbush would be killing it on RS passes because teams have to sell out. Yet I also expected him to much worse in pure passing situations. I did not expect these numbers to be this close.

This is my theory Wimbush has 35 pass chunk plays which is pretty good. I define a chunk play as any pass play of 20 yards or more. I was not tabulating running statistics but I'm guessing Wimbush generated at least 15 running chunk plays. So as combo runner passer this is why he has such a good QFR. But some of these very good runners in the mold of a Barrett or Denard Robinson or any QB in the Rich Rodriquez programs have a cap. This is for the same reason Kelly ditched Malik Zaire. Some of these QB's despite having very strong arms are capped by accuracy. There is no reason why Wimbush should have not had at least a 60% completion on RS passes. ND had a top ten offense. I would have expected teams maybe minus Georgia and LSU were forced to play 8 men in the box and linebackers selling out. To FriedmanIP. Does that not bother you?

If you can say with a straight face that ND Oline will only be marginally inferior to the 2017 version, you have nothing to worry about. We will see what happens in Sept

If you watched Wimbush in 2017, you didn't need this breakdown...but it's still interesting.

Wimbush didn't do better in 2017 on the throws that should be easier as opposed to the throws that should be harder. In some ways, that's a good thing. He wasn't some QB that his 100 check-downs and screens and 1 forward pass.

If you really watched Wimbush, you'd see a QB who just wasn't ready mechanically or mentally to be a full-time starter. Right or wrong, that was reality.
Kizer should have returned to ND anyways and Wimbush should have spent 2017 as a backup.

All that being said, if you look at Wimbush at his best and what he showed this Spring.....there is real hope that he'll show the same development that former ND QB's such as Jimmy Clausen and Brady Quinn showed from Year 1 to Year 2

 

[FriedmanIP]

[QUOTE="hfhmilkman, post: 2344466, member: 63700"
If you can say with a straight face that ND Oline will only be marginally inferior to the 2017 version, you have nothing to worry about. We will see what happens in Sept[/QUOTE]

As for the ND OL ... I expect the step-backwards to be mild

ND is returning 4 experienced starters, the same as it did in going into 2017. And while it may not have a Nelson/McGlinchey combo, it has probably 7+ probable NFL OL's looking to start or rotate in

I'd expect this OL to be the best OL that Michigan faces in 2018, despite facing Ohio St, Mich St, Penn St, and even better than Wisconsin
(though the Wisky comparison is a closer one)

 

[FriedmanIP]

Just one more thing. You list Mack at a 7 despite doing absolutely nothing except get in trouble. Yet DPJ's was rated as the number one receiver prospect in the country gets a 5. Each had the same number of receptions. As I stated before, most true freshman have to figure out route running unless they have academy backgrounds. I would argue that DPJ as a 2nd year player would at least have as much potential as Mack. I would also think that Tarik Black who had 11 receptions in 5 halfs of action despite being a true freshman would at least rate a 7. Why does Mack get a 7? I would argue that DPJ as a number one rated receiver as a 2nd year players and someone not in trouble should be at least equal to Mack.

This is the problem with adjectives. I never talked up the UM receivers because for better or worse they are birds in the bush. Yet you make Mack who has done nothing equal to the 4 TE's that UM has on their roster. I will talk up the UM defense because they have done something.

You just compared WR's who weigh less than 215lbs to a TE who weighs 260lbs...and argued that they should be the same, entirely based on their recieving yards

You claim of "Mack has done Nothing" ... and yet he his receiving numbers AS A TE are about as good as any Michigan WR who's tall enough to ride a roller-coster

You're bias shows when you assume that player like Black and Peoples-Jones will suddenly stop sucking against teams with a pulse....but Mack is locked into the player that previous seasons show him to be.

Hell, based on history, Black may not even make it to the ND game before his vagina gives out again

 

[hfhmilkman]

So....more made up BS from you. Thanks!

First of all, Roster Quality Score is my own evaluation...so you're welcome to dispute wherever you want, if you can actually backup those disputes.

Moving on:

• Ole Miss actuall BEAT a Top25 team once Patterson was no longer the QB (Miss State). In short, Ole Miss actually got BETTER after Patterson went down.
• Yes, Patterson has been trash against quality competition. But he's been good against cupcakes. Wimbush has been "Up and Down" against both quality competition and cupcakes. Both have elite tools....so I tried not to be a HOMER (like you are) and view that as a draw, for now
• Michigan was able to defend the pass well against teams that can't pass the ball, which is most of the Big10. But when faced with quality opponents, Michigan again folded...which hurt the score of their CB's. You disagree??
• Michigan's Run Defense and Run Offense we both good against cupcakes...but SUCKED against quality opponents in 2017. That affected both scores, though the upside grade a was still very generous. You disagree??
• Wimbush actually SUCCEEDED against teams like USC, Michigan State, and NC State. Which Patterson opponent would you put on that level, where he had success???

You love avoiding the facts, and running from context like scared little girl.

Try answering the above, point by point.
(I could use the lulz.......lol)

This not being tennis and a team game you have to remove the individual from the team. I took a lot of flak because I would not drink the John Navarre koolaid. John Navarre on paper is ten times the passer that Wimbush is. Of course Navarre was an awful QB because he panicked at the slightest bit of pressure. He cleaned up when Michigan had the offensive advantage. If he had 4 seconds he could make every throw including Lloyd Carr's beloved deep out. Notre Dame beat all of those teams because they could not stop ND from running. In none of those games did Wimbush have to pass more then 20 times. Especially the USC game ND just ran it down their throat. Even John O'Korn would have won that game. You have to separate the individual from the team and the situation.

The Big10 was a challenging conference. This was not the 70ties Big8. You do not generate top ten defensive statics in a couple non conference games. You can make a case that they did better against weaker teams. But you cannot generate top10 and top5 statistics if you sucked against every other good team.

I suggest take a look at football outsiders. They have great content that is unbiased and attempts to separate for strength of schedule. That is what I use.

If a team generates a useful metric than there is a reason for it. For example take a look at the line metrics. As bad a tire fire as the offense line was it was 20th in Adj Line rate and 7th in power. That is why I have a sliver of hope. Despite all of their pass woes and the existence of just pedestrian RB's they were able to always pick up the yard and run well. Adj Line rate is adjusted for strength of team and situation. So that number was not built on the strength of cupcakes. Does that mean the UM Oline is great. No I agree with you that there is a cap because none of the tackles at this time appear dynamic. All I can hope on is decent.

Now I will disagree with you on the defense numbers. The Michigan corners graded out #1 and #10. This is again adjusted to opponent strength. Covering a MAC receiver is like a quadrant four KENPOM win. It means nothing. It was not them covering bad receivers and getting beat by good receivers. If they got tire fired by every good receiver the grade would go way down.

Similar to the rest of the defense. They did get dinged to 18th on total yard run defense. If you look at the 1st/2nd half splits they are huge. As I stated before the UM defense had a great 1 one deep. They were vulnerable to wearing out. This was especially apparent against Wisc, OSU, and SC. PSU was the only team that really had their way. They had a great game plan and made every play. Look at the yardage Wisc, OSU, and SC put up in the 4th quarter compared to the first three. Too many 3 and outs just killed that defense and they were gassed.

You keep implying that I am some kind of homer when the first words out of my mouth is I don't need Patterson to be good. If you had said that you rated Patterson a 6 on your scale and said nothing else I would have nothing more to say. I will gladly take a 6. Give me your rating for UM QB's last year? Dare I say a 1? They were 110th in passing. If Patterson can get UM's passing metrics to 50 I will be doing cartwheels. 6 implies a little above average which would put UM passing in the 40-50 range. Now teams can't go 8 in the box. Is Patterson at risk of MDK when Joey Bosa lines up? Likely. But against everyone else a run offense play action passing game might be good enough if you can keep the defense fresh. That is what I am seeing.

 

[hfhmilkman]

If you watched Wimbush in 2017, you didn't need this breakdown...but it's still interesting.

Wimbush didn't do better in 2017 on the throws that should be easier as opposed to the throws that should be harder. In some ways, that's a good thing. He wasn't some QB that his 100 check-downs and screens and 1 forward pass.

If you really watched Wimbush, you'd see a QB who just wasn't ready mechanically or mentally to be a full-time starter. Right or wrong, that was reality.
Kizer should have returned to ND anyways and Wimbush should have spent 2017 as a backup.

All that being said, if you look at Wimbush at his best and what he showed this Spring.....there is real hope that he'll show the same development that former ND QB's such as Jimmy Clausen and Brady Quinn showed from Year 1 to Year 2

You have hope because you have your own scouting report being your eyeballs. I could say the same thing about Patterson presuming I saw games. For example as a UM homer I know that UM changed their line scheme from zone blocking to power mid way. It made a huge difference in the run game. If Ole Miss made a similar adjustment all of the credit goes to the QB helming the game when the win occurs. We are both hoping for improved QB play. This is the first time that there has been a concession from you that Wimbush at least from a passer was not stellar last year.

As a total package I'm not going to bomb the guy because I love college spread & shred. One of the narratives I want to see is Don Brown figuring out how he wants to attack the spread & shred. College defenses have been on their heals because spread & shred has been able to dictate tempo and initiative against the defense. Don Brown has some interesting run blitz concepts that attempts to take that initiative away. Most of these guys on UM's defense are now in their 3rd year. Most of them are Jim Harbaugh's and Don Brown's guys. Last year most of these players were 1st year starters. In fact 10 of the 11 were first year starters. Having that kind of turnover and generating several metrics that were top 10 despite constant pressure to be on the field was really impressive. My guess is Brown will have a 3 man front look and a 4 man front look. Last year the players were still learning their positions and there was not enough depth. Now they can do some crazy things like 3 down lineman, 4 LB'ers, 3 corners and one safety. Now the slot fade is being defended by a corner and the wheel by a faster linebacker. But you gotta be careful running the wheel because you don't know where the blitz is coming from.

 

[hfhmilkman]

You just compared WR's who weigh less than 215lbs to a TE who weighs 260lbs...and argued that they should be the same, entirely based on their recieving yards

You claim of "Mack has done Nothing" ... and yet he his receiving numbers AS A TE are about as good as any Michigan WR who's tall enough to ride a roller-coster

You're bias shows when you assume that player like Black and Peoples-Jones will suddenly stop sucking against teams with a pulse....but Mack is locked into the player that previous seasons show him to be.

Hell, based on history, Black may not even make it to the ND game before his vagina gives out again

My point is you had Mack as a 4th year player rated higher than a second year player who was rated higher by the recruiting agencies. I'm fine with you labeling DPJ a 5. You were the one who rated a guy who is a marginal player in the offense a 7. And again that is pretty brutal to question Black's manhood. That was an awful injury. Football is a physical sport and his ankle got caught in the turf. It was a catastrophic injury because he really had route running down. He had 11 catches through 2.5 games. Lets say his production drops by a third because he hits a wall or teams make a commitment to stop him. He still would have had 45 catches for a true freshman. He is a bird in the bush. But I think the odds of Black having a breakthrough season are just as high a Mack. I'm not a homer. I'm just saying if Mack is 7 in your ratings system so should DPJ+Black. If you called Mack a 5 and DPJ+Black I would not have had a problem with that. Potential is nothing until you show something.

I'm not a homer. If 5 is average on your scale and you rate Patterson a 5 I will take that to the bank. Making the assumption that 5 means average power conference QB.

 

[FriedmanIP]

My point is you had Mack as a 4th year player rated higher than a second year player who was rated higher by the recruiting agencies. I'm fine with you labeling DPJ a 5. You were the one who rated a guy who is a marginal player in the offense a 7. And again that is pretty brutal to question Black's manhood. That was an awful injury. Football is a physical sport and his ankle got caught in the turf. It was a catastrophic injury because he really had route running down. He had 11 catches through 2.5 games. Lets say his production drops by a third because he hits a wall or teams make a commitment to stop him. He still would have had 45 catches for a true freshman. He is a bird in the bush. But I think the odds of Black having a breakthrough season are just as high a Mack. I'm not a homer. I'm just saying if Mack is 7 in your ratings system so should DPJ+Black. If you called Mack a 5 and DPJ+Black I would not have had a problem with that. Potential is nothing until you show something.

I'm not a homer. If 5 is average on your scale and you rate Patterson a 5 I will take that to the bank. Making the assumption that 5 means average power conference QB.

I'm not a homer...but a guy who's never done anything against a team with a pule almost certainly would have had 50+ catches last year.
But I'm not a homer.

Dude, you're a moron.

Michigan's WR's, the ones with real talent, have literally never done anything. Not just "Not done enough yet", but they've never done anything at all. And that group has to fill 2-3 starting position.

On the other hand, Mack has done more than any Michigan WR with talent .... and that's just based on receiving numbers. In reality, his best work in 2017 was actually block, which he did REALLY well.

You've also stupidly narrowed this discussion to 1 player (Mack / DJP). The reality is that Notre Dame has 3 elite talents for 1 spot at TE, while Michigan has 1-2 elite talents for 2-3 spots at WR.

Notre Dame is better at TE than Michigan is at WR

Deal with it

 

[FriedmanIP]

You have hope because you have your own scouting report being your eyeballs. I could say the same thing about Patterson presuming I saw games. For example as a UM homer I know that UM changed their line scheme from zone blocking to power mid way. It made a huge difference in the run game. If Ole Miss made a similar adjustment all of the credit goes to the QB helming the game when the win occurs. We are both hoping for improved QB play. This is the first time that there has been a concession from you that Wimbush at least from a passer was not stellar last year.

As a total package I'm not going to bomb the guy because I love college spread & shred. One of the narratives I want to see is Don Brown figuring out how he wants to attack the spread & shred. College defenses have been on their heals because spread & shred has been able to dictate tempo and initiative against the defense. Don Brown has some interesting run blitz concepts that attempts to take that initiative away. Most of these guys on UM's defense are now in their 3rd year. Most of them are Jim Harbaugh's and Don Brown's guys. Last year most of these players were 1st year starters. In fact 10 of the 11 were first year starters. Having that kind of turnover and generating several metrics that were top 10 despite constant pressure to be on the field was really impressive. My guess is Brown will have a 3 man front look and a 4 man front look. Last year the players were still learning their positions and there was not enough depth. Now they can do some crazy things like 3 down lineman, 4 LB'ers, 3 corners and one safety. Now the slot fade is being defended by a corner and the wheel by a faster linebacker. But you gotta be careful running the wheel because you don't know where the blitz is coming from.

Holy sh*t

You OL did NOT get better late in the year....you still sucked BALLS when trying to run against teams with a pulse at the end of the season (Wisco, Ohio St, etc)

No one, absolutely no one, in that rushing attack has shown they can do anything against a team with a pulse.




The same is true of every QB on Michigan's roster. None have shown they can do anything but SUCK when they face quality opponents. Not "Up and Down", not "Just Okay".....they've all SUCKED every time they face a quality opponent.

You criticize Wimbush a lot....but he's actually succeeded against quality opponents, repeatedly. And not just by running the ball, but through the air as well.



This discussion really can't go forward until you accept this reality:
There is not 1 single player on Michigan's offense, not even 1, that has shown that they can succeed when playing a quality opponent.

Either accept, or start pointing to actual CFB games that refute it.

 

[hfhmilkman]

I'm not a homer...but a guy who's never done anything against a team with a pule almost certainly would have had 50+ catches last year.
But I'm not a homer.

Dude, you're a moron.

Michigan's WR's, the ones with real talent, have literally never done anything. Not just "Not done enough yet", but they've never done anything at all. And that group has to fill 2-3 starting position.

On the other hand, Mack has done more than any Michigan WR with talent .... and that's just based on receiving numbers. In reality, his best work in 2017 was actually block, which he did REALLY well.

You've also stupidly narrowed this discussion to 1 player (Mack / DJP). The reality is that Notre Dame has 3 elite talents for 1 spot at TE, while Michigan has 1-2 elite talents for 2-3 spots at WR.

Notre Dame is better at TE than Michigan is at WR

Deal with it

That is a pretty strong statement. DPJ is only the best receiver to come out of the state of Michigan since Charles Rogers. I did not say that. That is what the ratings agencies said. Including the ND coaching staff. Take their word not mine. DPJ had an excuse in that he came from Cass Tech and never ran a route. I have no problems not giving potential a rating. You are the one using facts as a weapon. If you want to say Mack better than Michigan receivers than its an opinion. All I see less than 2 catches a game from a guy who should know how to run a route. I can't comment on his blocking because individual blocking grades is usually paid content.

I think both Black and Jones will have 40-50 catches each. With each having 4-6 TD's. What are you predicting from Mack? You know the history of ND TE's. If he is good why is he not putting up numbers when Brian Kelly loves to pass to TE's? Last year should have been breakout. Nothing better for a 1st year QB than a big TE.

 

[NDAFArly]

This debate/discussion is pretty detailed & in-depth.

I will chime in with a few comments, maybe to break it up a bit.

1) To hfhmilkman: the problem with your side of the argument is not presenting actual facts to back it up. Players at Michigan that you are hyping up have played actual college football. So we are forced to look at their actual production, not hype. You are using recruit rankings & hypothetical future progressions to make your argument. But we have actual game footage that shows the opposite?
It’s like me saying Wimbush is an elite passer because he was in HS. But now we have 12 games that day he currently is not.

2) To me it comes down to two things:
Michigan was arguably the worst pass blocking OL in the Big Ten last year (based on sacks, knockdowns & hurries) & they lost their best OL in Mason Cole. So can Michigan run the ball against ND? ND returns everybody except Morgan, so should be a top 20 Defense. If Michigan can’t run the ball I don’t care how good Patterson is, if ND knows they are throwing he will be in trouble.
Second thing is Wimbush’s ability to complete easy passes. He can run for 100 yards easily if he wants, but if he can’t hit the wide open receivers it won’t matter. Last year he missed so many easy long balls & just as many easy 5-7 yard passes it was embarrassing. He competes over 60%, including the easy throws ND will be okay. Michigan has a top 20 Defense that will force Wimbush to throw.
Those two factors will decide the game.

 

[FriedmanIP]

That is a pretty strong statement. DPJ is only the best receiver to come out of the state of Michigan since Charles Rogers. I did not say that. That is what the ratings agencies said. Including the ND coaching staff. Take their word not mine. DPJ had an excuse in that he came from Cass Tech and never ran a route. I have no problems not giving potential a rating. You are the one using facts as a weapon. If you want to say Mack better than Michigan receivers than its an opinion. All I see less than 2 catches a game from a guy who should know how to run a route. I can't comment on his blocking because individual blocking grades is usually paid content.

I think both Black and Jones will have 40-50 catches each. With each having 4-6 TD's. What are you predicting from Mack? You know the history of ND TE's. If he is good why is he not putting up numbers when Brian Kelly loves to pass to TE's? Last year should have been breakout. Nothing better for a 1st year QB than a big TE.

"It's okay that the Michigan WRs didn't produce at all, they get.....but the Notre Dame TE, who actually have about a much receiving production as any talent Michigan WR (despite being a TE), his lack of production is a major concern"
But you're not a homer....lol

Again, ND has 3 elite talents to fill 1-2 spots at TE (Mack, Kmet, Wright) while Michigan has 1-2 elite talented to fill 2-3 spots at WR

And furthermore, the ND TE's are actually more proven than the Michigan WRs...even though the ND TEs are more about potential than anything else (as are the Michigan WRs)

ND's TE depth chart is better than Michigan's WR depth chart

Deal with it

 

[NDAFArly]

"It's okay that the Michigan WRs didn't produce at all, they get.....but the Notre Dame TE, who actually have about a much receiving production as any talent Michigan WR (despite being a TE), his lack of production is a major concern"
But you're not a homer....lol

Again, ND has 3 elite talents to fill 1-2 spots at TE (Mack, Kmet, Wright) while Michigan has 1-2 elite talented to fill 2-3 spots at WR

And furthermore, the ND TE's are actually more proven than the Michigan WRs...even though the ND TEs are more about potential than anything else (as are the Michigan WRs)

ND's TE depth chart is better than Michigan's WR depth chart

Deal with it

If we are talking “talent” then ND’s TE’s win that discussion hands down.

Mack - #1 Ranked TE
Wright - #2 Ranked TE
Kmet - #3 Ranked TE

If we are talking actual on-field production then ND’s TE’s have also done more.

So I’m not sure what the debate is here?

 

[FriedmanIP]

Michigan has a top 20 Defense that will force Wimbush to throw.

I agree that Michigan is a Top25 type of defense, based on what they've shown so far, not an elite defense that's one of the best in the nation. Not on the level of Alabama, Georgia, Ohio State, etc.

However, I'll be interested to see if Michigan is actually able to "make Wimbush throw"

In 2017, Michigan only faced 3 offenses that ranked in the Top25 in Scoring Offense and/or Total Offense
Penn St - 35 Carries / 224 Yards / 6.4 YPC / 5 TD
Ohio St - 48 Carries / 226 Yards / 4.6 YPC / 3 TD
Wisconsin - 40 Carries / 182 Yards / 4.55 YPC / 1 TD

Basically, every quality offense Michigan faced in 2017 ran the ball all over them.

Teams change year to year, so who knows for 2018

But getting dominated that consistently is a concerning sign for a team that plans to rely so heavily on its defense

 

[hfhmilkman]

Holy sh*t

You OL did NOT get better late in the year....you still sucked BALLS when trying to run against teams with a pulse at the end of the season (Wisco, Ohio St, etc)

No one, absolutely no one, in that rushing attack has shown they can do anything against a team with a pulse.




The same is true of every QB on Michigan's roster. None have shown they can do anything but SUCK when they face quality opponents. Not "Up and Down", not "Just Okay".....they've all SUCKED every time they face a quality opponent.

You criticize Wimbush a lot....but he's actually succeeded against quality opponents, repeatedly. And not just by running the ball, but through the air as well.



This discussion really can't go forward until you accept this reality:
There is not 1 single player on Michigan's offense, not even 1, that has shown that they can succeed when playing a quality opponent.

Either accept, or start pointing to actual CFB games that refute it.

You are using adjectives again. You use the word suck a lot. Out of one side of your mouth you say Patterson sucks yet out of the side you rate him the same as Wimbush. I'm kind of confused.

When I make opinions I use the raw stats from ESPN and than the 2nd order stats from football outsiders. I will state one more time. Football outsiders grades are based on strength of opponent. You keep saying over and over that UM running failed against great teams or the defense could not stop the run against great teams and they just all suck. Football outsiders does not give any credit for beating up on a cupcake. It is like Kenpom for basketball. UM's defense and offensive ratings are not significantly impacted by beating up Rutgers.

The final adjusted rate for UM's defense came out to 10. Notre Dame came out at 27. Considering that UM returns 20 of 22 on the two deep, I'm really excited. I'm hoping the ND offense has the opinion of the Michigan defense as you do. UM run offense which is also adjusted did some nice things. I will hold as someone watching every game it was the return to power over zone. It might have been masked by the many fabulous run defenses in the big ten and eight man boxes, but the lineman generally did okay on making power blocks. Being number 7 in power tells me the RB can get to the line of scrimmage clean. I will agree with you tackle protection is going to be scary. But lets see what happens with a different QB. The RS plays were there to be made. The UM QB's last year did not do it. If UM QB's could not make plays against anyone, Patterson made plays against someone even if it was a cupcake. Its better than what we had last year.

I have seen this situation three times. 1984, 1996, and 2005. Each time UM was bagged because of fate, injuries, and failed opportunities. As an old timer I remember people talking about how Bo has to go. In all three of those situations practically the entire defense came back for 1985, 1997, and 2006. If you want to tell me that in your opinion a defense with 10 new starters year before and now returning 20 on the 2 deep that outsiders ranks 10th sucks? Well lets see what happens. I will gladly take my beat down if Notre Dame and Wimbush chew this defense up. If I am allowed to make posts I will start one called IPFriedman eat me alive and I will have to ack everything you want to say. If I forget my email is hfhmilkman on yahoo. If I am too cowardly to take my beat down spam me to death. Or just go on mgoblog and start a thread about how I did not take my beat down.

I have told you what I expect out of Patterson against ND. I still have not seen a prediction from you.

Me personally I think it will be a tough game for Wimbush. The spread & shred is a staple of the ACC and Don Brown has his players in place now, not Brady Hoke's. Look at what Boston College did when Brown was there. He could be a geezer and has lost it? Unlike last year there is enough depth so that there can be a 3 and 4 man front package. The Viper is there to defeat tempo. UM did very well against OSU, WISC, and SC when their defense was fresh. I think they have enough 2 deep depth so that spelling the Dline a few times will not be the disaster it was last year. I think first team to 15 points wins.

 

[FriedmanIP]

You are using adjectives again. You use the word suck a lot. Out of one side of your mouth you say Patterson sucks yet out of the side you rate him the same as Wimbush. I'm kind of confused.

Patterson has SUCKED against every quality opponent he's played, but he's dominated the cupcakes. He also has potential to improve.

His grade is the same as Wimbush's because of his quality performances against cupcakes and his potential to improve.

 

[hfhmilkman]

If we are talking “talent” then ND’s TE’s win that discussion hands down.

Mack - #1 Ranked TE
Wright - #2 Ranked TE
Kmet - #3 Ranked TE

If we are talking actual on-field production then ND’s TE’s have also done more.

So I’m not sure what the debate is here?

Are you saying those three players were the number one, two and three ranked players at their position? If so which ratings agency? Also, why are catching so few passes? Brian Kelly is not Saban who treats TE's as afterthoughts. ND receivers were good. But I have seen better. Either these guys are having problems or Kelly has made a strategic change on how he runs his offense.

 

[FriedmanIP]

When I make opinions I use the raw stats from ESPN and than the 2nd order stats from football outsiders. I will state one more time. Football outsiders grades are based on strength of opponent. You keep saying over and over that UM running failed against great teams or the defense could not stop the run against great teams and they just all suck. Football outsiders does not give any credit for beating up on a cupcake. It is like Kenpom for basketball. UM's defense and offensive ratings are not significantly impacted by beating up Rutgers.

Go ahead and post the game against quality opponent where Michigan actually ran the ball effectively then.
Post even 1 such game from 2017.

I'll wait.

But you won't....because there isn't one to post.

Michigan's rushing attack got SHUT DOWN by every quality opponent that Michigan faced. That's reality.

It occurred because Michigan has a TERRIBLE offensive line and an average RB

 

[FriedmanIP]

Are you saying those three players were the number one, two and three ranked players at their position? If so which ratings agency? Also, why are catching so few passes? Brian Kelly is not Saban who treats TE's as afterthoughts. ND receivers were good. But I have seen better. Either these guys are having problems or Kelly has made a strategic change on how he runs his offense.

These were their rankings, according to Rivals:
Wright - #1 TE (2017)
Mack - #2 TE (2015)
Kmet - #3 TE (2017)

The didn't catch the ball often in 2017, primarily due to Wimbush's struggles in the passing game. Specifically, Wimbush did a bad job in indentifying open receivers in the middle of the field, so the TEs so few passes even though they were open.

Kmet and Wright weren't on the team before that. Mack was suspended during the 2016 season, and actually caught quite a few passes in 2015...for a True Frosh TE who was playing behind an NFL Draft Pick

Again, ND has just as much talent/potential at TE as Michigan does at WR

But ND's TE's have actually produced/proven MORE than Michigan's talented WRs (though still quite limited production) and ND only has to fill 1-2 TE slots with that group while Michigan has to fill 2-3 WR slots.

Thus, ND's TE >>> Michigan's WR's

Deal with it

 

[hfhmilkman]

To FriedmanIP look at how outsiders does their ratings. On paper one might conclude ND defense was number 50 because of total defense numbers. But outsiders has them ranked 27. The reason is garbage stats after ND blew out a cupcake do not get counted. Racking up a bunch of yards after the game is over does not help. A ND hater might say well they don't have a good defense on first order stats. This is not far where I had ND which was about 30-35. If you want to pay for the content then you can have these arguments down to individuals. If you insist that Mack is great blocker, someone has graded all of his plays. Ditto for any of the UM lineman. It can't account for everything as it assumes the correct line call was made, else a lineman can look foolish if he picks up the wrong guy. The graders can only ask did the block succeed or was it defeated?

 

[NDAFArly]

Are you saying those three players were the number one, two and three ranked players at their position? If so which ratings agency? Also, why are catching so few passes? Brian Kelly is not Saban who treats TE's as afterthoughts. ND receivers were good. But I have seen better. Either these guys are having problems or Kelly has made a strategic change on how he runs his offense.

Yes.
That was the composite rankings. Some individual sites had Wright #1 also. But those are the composite rankings. See below:

https://247sports.com/player/alize-jones-30416

https://247sports.com/Player/Brock-Wright-71789

https://247sports.com/Player/Cole-Kmet-82570

As far as your second question.
Smythe was just drafted in the NFL & Weishet is coming back as a 5th year. So ND has had 4-5 high level TE’s slitting reps.

Mack (name used to be Jones) played as a true freshman on a 10 win 2015 team. Was ineligible in 2016 & ran around wide open in 2017, but was still effective.

Wright played last year as a freshman as a big time blocker & short yardage specialist.

Kmet has won the starting job this year.

 

[NDAFArly]

These were their rankings, according to Rivals:
Wright - #1 TE (2017)
Mack - #2 TE (2015)
Kmet - #3 TE (2017)

The didn't catch the ball often in 2017, primarily due to Wimbush's struggles in the passing game. Specifically, Wimbush did a bad job in indentifying open receivers in the middle of the field, so the TEs so few passes even though they were open.

Kmet and Wright weren't on the team before that. Mack was suspended during the 2016 season, and actually caught quite a few passes in 2015...for a True Frosh TE who was playing behind an NFL Draft Pick

Again, ND has just as much talent/potential at TE as Michigan does at WR

But ND's TE's have actually produced/proven MORE than Michigan's talented WRs (though still quite limited production) and ND only has to fill 1-2 TE slots with that group while Michigan has to fill 2-3 WR slots.

Thus, ND's TE >>> Michigan's WR's

Deal with it

I used the composite rankings. So Mack & Wright would be flipped.

 

[FriedmanIP]

I have told you what I expect out of Patterson against ND. I still have not seen a prediction from you.

I already told, I'll be happy to give you my prediction once you actually respond to what I'm saying, instead of going off on your own tangents?

Which quality opponent did Michigan's supposedly decent OL run the ball well against in 2017? Just name 1??

How do you account for these stats in your "Patterson v. Wimbush" narrtive?

Here are some actual facts:
(Better # , Worse Number, Similar Number)

Wimbush against Top25 Competition:
Record: 4-3
Average Offensive Score: 28 Points
Average Total Yards: 210 Yards
Average Total TD: 2.0
Average INT: 0.5
Average Yards/Play: 5.7 Yards
Average Comp %: 51%

Patterson Against Top25 Competition:
Record: 0-3
Average Offensive Score: 17 Points
Average Total Yards: 130
Average Total TD: 0.5
Average INT: 2.0
Average Yards/Play: 3.5 Yards
Average Comp %: 53%

 

[NDAFArly]

I agree that Michigan is a Top25 type of defense, based on what they've shown so far, not an elite defense that's one of the best in the nation. Not on the level of Alabama, Georgia, Ohio State, etc.

However, I'll be interested to see if Michigan is actually able to "make Wimbush throw"

In 2017, Michigan only faced 3 offenses that ranked in the Top25 in Scoring Offense and/or Total Offense
Penn St - 35 Carries / 224 Yards / 6.4 YPC / 5 TD
Ohio St - 48 Carries / 226 Yards / 4.6 YPC / 3 TD
Wisconsin - 40 Carries / 182 Yards / 4.55 YPC / 1 TD

Basically, every quality offense Michigan faced in 2017 ran the ball all over them.

Teams change year to year, so who knows for 2018

But getting dominated that consistently is a concerning sign for a team that plans to rely so heavily on its defense

I agree good offenses had their way with Michigan’s defense. But they had QB’s who demonstrated the ability to complete easy passes, thus opening up the run game.
If Wimbush demonstrates he can throw, then ND will run. If not, Michigan will load the box & nobody can run against that.

 

[FriedmanIP]

To FriedmanIP look at how outsiders does their ratings. On paper one might conclude ND defense was number 50 because of total defense numbers. But outsiders has them ranked 27. The reason is garbage stats after ND blew out a cupcake do not get counted. Racking up a bunch of yards after the game is over does not help. A ND hater might say well they don't have a good defense on first order stats. This is not far where I had ND which was about 30-35. If you want to pay for the content then you can have these arguments down to individuals. If you insist that Mack is great blocker, someone has graded all of his plays. Ditto for any of the UM lineman. It can't account for everything as it assumes the correct line call was made, else a lineman can look foolish if he picks up the wrong guy. The graders can only ask did the block succeed or was it defeated?

Stats are helpful, if given context....but they cannout override actual game performances. And attempting to use them to do so means that you're not using stats properly.

So I ask again:
If Michigan's OL was really decent/okay, especially later in the year after making a scheme change....which game against a quality opponent did they actually produce a decent rushing attack in?

Name even 1 game, and it could give the stats you're trying to push legitimacy.

Problem is.....there isn't even 1 game
(because Michigan's OL is god awful)

 

[FriedmanIP]

I agree good offenses had their way with Michigan’s defense. But they had QB’s who demonstrated the ability to complete easy passes, thus opening up the run game.
If Wimbush demonstrates he can throw, then ND will run. If not, Michigan will load the box & nobody can run against that.

Agree completely.

Michigan was NOT an elite level defense in 2017, so good offenses took advantage of them.

If that's the case again in 2018, then the only question will be whether or not Wimbush improves enough to allow ND to take advantage...there will nothing on the Michigan side of the equation.

Now, perhaps Michigan improves dramatically on defense and actually becomes the type of defense that they were trying to claim they were in 2017.
Maybe, maybe not.

 

[hfhmilkman]

Go ahead and post the game against quality opponent where Michigan actually ran the ball effectively then.
Post even 1 such game from 2017.

I'll wait.

But you won't....because there isn't one to post.

Michigan's rushing attack got SHUT DOWN by every quality opponent that Michigan faced. That's reality.

It occurred because Michigan has a TERRIBLE offensive line and an average RB

I will give a case study. UM verse WISC. UM runs a play. Every linemen makes his block. WISC runs an eight man front and decides to run blitz the SS for nine. 1st level is defeated. But there are two extra defenders. RB gets 3 yards. Which means you are off schedule. On paper FriedmanIP is clucking at how terrible the Michigan run game is. But football is a team game and why coaches want a balanced offense. Wisc could play this defense because they were confident that whoever was the UM QB could not make a play. They were not good enough to do what ND could do and win anyway or at least make a PA throw half the time which Wimbush did. His stats were strange as it did not matter on the quality of opponent. His worse game was against a MAC team and his best game in my opinion was against Georgia. Go figure.

The goal of 2nd order stats is to decouple the team from the unit. UM offense was torn down by the bad QB play because no one respected the pass. I would say a classic case study is the UM<>MSU game. UM running backs could get 3-4 yards a crack. But MSU just put 8-9 men in the box and dared O'Korn to throw. The best game where power really worked was against OSU where the running backs ran for 135 yards on 28 carries. That is 4.82ypa against a very good run defense. Of course it is buried because NCAA tracks sack yardage as run yardage. WISC destroyed us. UM did something against SC for a little while and Peters had an awful.

I think the run offense has some up side. It was masked by 8 and 9 man fronts, especially against good teams. I think this run offense is good enough that if the pass has to respected, the numbers in 2018 will reflect it. Which is why I look at 2nd order metrics instead of just raw stats. How do you decouple teams playing a team to run only.

 

[FriedmanIP]

I will give a case study. UM verse WISC. UM runs a play. Every linemen makes his block. WISC runs an eight man front and decides to run blitz the SS for nine. 1st level is defeated. But there are two extra defenders. RB gets 3 yards. Which means you are off schedule. On paper FriedmanIP is clucking at how terrible the Michigan run game is. But football is a team game and why coaches want a balanced offense. Wisc could play this defense because they were confident that whoever was the UM QB could not make a play. They were not good enough to do what ND could do and win anyway or at least make a PA throw half the time which Wimbush did. His stats were strange as it did not matter on the quality of opponent. His worse game was against a MAC team and his best game in my opinion was against Georgia. Go figure.

The goal of 2nd order stats is to decouple the team from the unit. UM offense was torn down by the bad QB play because no one respected the pass. I would say a classic case study is the UM<>MSU game. UM running backs could get 3-4 yards a crack. But MSU just put 8-9 men in the box and dared O'Korn to throw. The best game where power really worked was against OSU where the running backs ran for 135 yards on 28 carries. That is 4.82ypa against a very good run defense. Of course it is buried because NCAA tracks sack yardage as run yardage. WISC destroyed us. UM did something against SC for a little while and Peters had an awful.

I think the run offense has some up side. It was masked by 8 and 9 man fronts, especially against good teams. I think this run offense is good enough that if the pass has to respected, the numbers in 2018 will reflect it. Which is why I look at 2nd order metrics instead of just raw stats. How do you decouple teams playing a team to run only.

Here is a crazy concept on how you can figure out who is good on which team, even though some of their teammates are not good....you watch the games!!

As someone who was actually at the Wisconsin/Michigan game in Madison, and watched it again on TV with Badger buddies....it was obvious that Michigan's OL was NOT moving anyone on Wisconsin's defense with regularity, opening up holes, or really doing anything but getting bullied.

As for you "It's the QB's fault that the OL sucked" theory...lol

• Ohio State was VERY limited passing the ball, but still rushed for MORE THAN DOUBLE what Michigan did against Wisconsin
• Miami was VERY VERY limited at QB, but they still were much more effective running the ball against Wisconsin
• Maryland was a JOKE at QB, but they were still more effective than Michigan at running the ball against Wisconsin

Michigan's run game sucked against quality opponents because it was not a talented group

What Michigan has is a terrible, terrible OL that cannot move opponents or protect the backfield...and an average RB who can't overcome that.

That's reality

 

[hfhmilkman]

For FriedmanIP I did one more. When did Michigan defense stop a good team. I made the case study that the inferior offense gassed out the defense. I tabulated every 1st half play plus the first 3 drives of the 2nd half against Wisc, OSU, and SC, which were all 3 disappointing losses. This accounts for 27 drives. 18 were 3 and out or less. 24 points were scored and the opposing team generated 366 yards of offense on 105 plays. Take with a grain of salt there may be some penalty yards. I just called it even in both directions. In the last 20 minutes of those three games 40 points was scored by the opposing team. I am sure the ypa sky rocketed from 3.48.

I chose to stop at the 4th drive because it is pretty clear looking at the play by play UM defensive effectiveness goes off a cliff in all three of those games. UM was forced to play their 1st deep more than they would like. The offense gave them no breaks and everything fell apart. Despite that they were still an excellent defense because for 40 minutes they were unbelievable in all three of those games. Take with a grain of salt only OSU was a truly great offense.

 

[FriedmanIP]

For FriedmanIP I did one more. When did Michigan defense stop a good team. I made the case study that the inferior offense gassed out the defense. I tabulated every 1st half play plus the first 3 drives of the 2nd half against Wisc, OSU, and SC, which were all 3 disappointing losses. This accounts for 27 drives. 18 were 3 and out or less. 24 points were scored and the opposing team generated 366 yards of offense on 105 plays. Take with a grain of salt there may be some penalty yards. I just called it even in both directions. In the last 20 minutes of those three games 40 points was scored by the opposing team. I am sure the ypa sky rocketed from 3.48.

I chose to stop at the 4th drive because it is pretty clear looking at the play by play UM defensive effectiveness goes off a cliff in all three of those games. UM was forced to play their 1st deep more than they would like. The offense gave them no breaks and everything fell apart. Despite that they were still an excellent defense because for 40 minutes they were unbelievable in all three of those games. Take with a grain of salt only OSU was a truly great offense.

You can't be serious with this....can you?

30% to 50% of the game shouldn't really count??
Michigan's defense had to play SOOOO much more than anyone else, basically half of a game for Michigan was the equivalent of a full game for everyone else??




Michigan was 20th nationally in Time of Possession in 2017. That's right, 20th.

More specifically, in the games you cited....Michigan actually had a huge ToP ADVANTAGE against South Carolina (35min for Mich) and was never further than ~90 seconds from a 50/50 split

You're whole narrative about the defense being on the field too much is just a lie

 

[NDAFArly]

The problem with Michigan’s Defense was false expectations.

They were hyped as elite going into 2017.

Then they look good versus Florida & everyone loses their mind. But it turns out Florida’s offense was historically bad.

Then play a bad Cincy team.

Then they play Air Force (my team) & looks somewhat good against a bad offense.

Then Purdue...

Then play MSU at home. Give up a quick 14 points & the run comes so MSU shuts down their offense (and wins) but makes Michigan’s defense look like it was good.

Then play IU who has switched to a pure Defense team & bad offense.

So 6 games in they look great...

Also look good against Rutgers, Maryland & Minnesota. Bad offenses.

Then have to play the meat of their schedule versus PSU, OSU & Wisconsin & get abused.

Then are the only Big10 team to lose their bowl (against an average South Carolina).

It reminds me of ND in 2014 that beat Michigan 31-0 (really 37-0) & everyone thought their defense was incredible. Not so much...LOL

 

[FriedmanIP]

The problem with Michigan’s Defense was false expectations.

They were hyped as elite going into 2017.

Then they look good versus Florida & everyone loses their mind. But it turns out Florida’s offense was historically bad.

Then play a bad Cincy team.

Then they play Air Force (my team) & looks somewhat good against a bad offense.

Then Purdue...

Then play MSU at home. Give up a quick 14 points & the run comes so MSU shuts down their offense (and wins) but makes Michigan’s defense look like it was good.

Then play IU who has switched to a pure Defense team & bad offense.

So 6 games in they look great...

Also look good against Rutgers, Maryland & Minnesota. Bad offenses.

Then have to play the meat of their schedule versus PSU, OSU & Wisconsin & get abused.

Then are the only Big10 team to lose their bowl (against an average South Carolina).

It reminds me of ND in 2014 that beat Michigan 31-0 (really 37-0) & everyone thought their defense was incredible. Not so much...LOL

Correct.

It was an issue with overall talent, experience, scheme knowledge, and depth.....not a literally non-existent Time of Possession issue.

While Michigan's defense should improve in 2018 due to returning players, the jumping-off point for the 2018 group is a "Good but Not Special" defense that could not stop any of the better offenses it went up against.....especially not their rushing attacks

Getting a new QB will have 0 impact on the issues that plagued Michigan's defense against quality opponents in 2017.

 

[FriedmanIP]

So @hfhmilkman are you done making sh*t up now? Ready to accept the reality I’ve been telling to you?

Or are you going to tell us more about how it was the fact that Michigan’s “elite defense” was just in the field too much that caused them to fail against EVERY SINGLE quality opponent they faced.....despite winning or being equal in Time of Possession in those games as Top20 Overall in ToP??

Are you going to tell us more about how it was the QB who made Michigan’s “decent OL” suck against EVERY SINGLE quality opponent they faced....even though other “mediocre at best” teams with bad QB ran the ball against Wisconsin, etc. better ban Michigan?



You’re a Michigan homer who ignores facts to make excuses for Harbaugh’s failures...pure and simple.