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NOTRE DAME--MICHIGAN, Labor Day Vegas Odds

Duo

ND Expert
Jul 23, 2006
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According to 5Dimes Notre Dame is a 2 point favorite.

HFA is usually a 3 point advantage. Not sure how they arrived at ND-2? Anyway, that pretty much sounds like a push.

What are your thoughts on the game? Advantages/disadvantages, special points, thoughts and ideas?

And a score prediction for those who care to venture a best guess.
 
Beats Michigan or beats USC?
I'd probably rather see ND beat USC because hopefully it will have meaning and Kelly needs to win the regular season finale. Hasn't in 5 years. Well obviously hopefully they win both haha.
 
According to 5Dimes Notre Dame is a 2 point favorite.

HFA is usually a 3 point advantage. Not sure how they arrived at ND-2? Anyway, that pretty much sounds like a push.

What are your thoughts on the game? Advantages/disadvantages, special points, thoughts and ideas?

And a score prediction for those who care to venture a best guess.

The odds of -2 were released in January (see below).
Nothing new here at all. They will change multiple times before the season.
You are about 3 months late on this current line.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.la...all-odds-week-1-lines-michigan-notre-dame/amp
 
According to 5Dimes Notre Dame is a 2 point favorite.

HFA is usually a 3 point advantage. Not sure how they arrived at ND-2? Anyway, that pretty much sounds like a push.

What are your thoughts on the game? Advantages/disadvantages, special points, thoughts and ideas?

And a score prediction for those who care to venture a best guess.

The odds of -2 were released in January (see below).
Nothing new here at all. They will change multiple times before the season.
You are about 3 months late on this current line.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.la...all-odds-week-1-lines-michigan-notre-dame/amp
Lol @ ND a 2 pt favorite. Michigan probably has the best defense in college football. Combine that with the best dual at wide receiver and Shea Patterson coming in. My bookie made Michigan a seven point favorite
 
Lol @ ND a 2 pt favorite. Michigan probably has the best defense in college football. Combine that with the best dual at wide receiver and Shea Patterson coming in. My bookie made Michigan a seven point favorite


take the 7
 
Lol @ ND a 2 pt favorite. Michigan probably has the best defense in college football. Combine that with the best dual at wide receiver and Shea Patterson coming in. My bookie made Michigan a seven point favorite

1) Michigan doesn’t have the best defense. Not even top 5. They have a HUGE weakness at Safety.

2) Shea Patterson was a mediocre QB at Ole Miss.

3) ND sees a better crop at WR every year when they play USC (with better QB too).

4) You & your bookie know more than Vegas...

How did you bet on the MSU & OSU games?
 
Lol @ ND a 2 pt favorite. Michigan probably has the best defense in college football. Combine that with the best dual at wide receiver and Shea Patterson coming in. My bookie made Michigan a seven point favorite

Sounds like you should put $25K down on the ND - 2 line in Vegas then, and then come here to post the ticket........so that we all believe you, for the first time ever!
 
Lol @ ND a 2 pt favorite. Michigan probably has the best defense in college football. Combine that with the best dual at wide receiver and Shea Patterson coming in. My bookie made Michigan a seven point favorite
1) Michigan doesn’t have the best defense. Not even top 5. They have a HUGE weakness at Safety.

2) Shea Patterson was a mediocre QB at Ole Miss.

3) ND sees a better crop at WR every year when they play USC (with better QB too).

4) You & your bookie know more than Vegas...

How did you bet on the MSU & OSU games?

Let's be fair

Michigan probably has a Top10 Defense....in the Big10 (clearly behind Ohio State, Michigan State, Wisconsin, and probably Penn State as well)

Shea Patterson was a GREAT QB....against South Alabama. He just sucked against every opponent with a pulse!

And don't make fun of those "receivers", they almost COMBINED to match the stats that Chase Claypool put up....that's a major achievement for UMjr!!

We can all look forward to @BubbaJ75 posting his $25K ticket
 
Lol @ ND a 2 pt favorite. Michigan probably has the best defense in college football. Combine that with the best dual at wide receiver and Shea Patterson coming in. My bookie made Michigan a seven point favorite

"My bookie made Michigan a seven point favorite"

Does your momma run a bookie joint from the basement?
 
Lol @ ND a 2 pt favorite. Michigan probably has the best defense in college football. Combine that with the best dual at wide receiver and Shea Patterson coming in. My bookie made Michigan a seven point favorite
there is a michigan site you should go to because you sound like a little kid, i live in michigan and watch the people wear their mich gear up until the first loss then watch mich state fans mock you lololol
 
According to 5Dimes Notre Dame is a 2 point favorite.

HFA is usually a 3 point advantage. Not sure how they arrived at ND-2? Anyway, that pretty much sounds like a push.

What are your thoughts on the game? Advantages/disadvantages, special points, thoughts and ideas?

And a score prediction for those who care to venture a best guess.
Two point spread means Michigan would be a 1 point favorite on a neutral field. ND gets three for being at home, therefore ND favored by two.

......and that's not enough.

ND 27
UM 17
 
Hi I am a UM homer. So will get that out. So take my opinions with a grain of salt. And apologies for long winded spam as just looking for good discussion. Regardless of spread, home night games are a big deal and add a lot of variance. This game is a big deal as even if statistically possible the loser can achieve their goals it is proof that they cannot. UM has a ridiculous schedule. If they can't beat a good team away, how can they achieve to hope to win any other tough away game? Likewise if ND cannot defend their home turf when they have everything in their favor, how can they consider themselves BCS players? So the pressure is on. So will it be on both coaches as I view this game as you lose, it is proof you are out. It should be a great game because of what is at stake. Happy to see the rivalry back. So I looked at all of the units as it is reasonably easy to compare.

Both defenses have almost everyone coming back including everyone in the secondary. ND's defense was ranked in the low 30ties and UM was in the 5th-10th range. You get a different number depending on what the agency rates as more important. UM did this as the younger defense. Many of the players who made this defense dynamic were 2nd year players, first year starters. My personal opinion is the biggest jump in improvement in a player is from his 2nd to 3rd year and/or 1st year starting to the 2nd. I can't comment on ND specifics but my observations on UM is as good as the starters were, there was little dependable depth on the front 7. Every time they attempted to spell their starters, it was disaster. The talk in camp is that there is a dependable two deep not just for the Dline but the linebackers. Football is about the weakest link. Opposing offenses used two exploits to great effect. The first was the wheel against a slower LB like Mike McCray. The 2nd was the slot fade against a safety. Don Brown has a year to figure this out. The solution to the 1st problem is a more space aware LB'er that gets fixed by depth. One of the topics on the second item is why not run out 3 corners and one FS. The consensus of the agencies is UM's two CB's were graded top ten in coverage. No comment if they really are top ten in coverage. Just that however these agencies rank players that is how they graded out. 2016 UM loved to put Jordan Lewis, the best corner on the slot for that reason. So maybe UM may feel they can do it again. For me, Don Brown knows ND and his specialty is thwarting the run spread. He had success when at Boston College having success against ND, FSU, and Clemson. This is his 3rd year and all of those 1st year starters from last year are his players.

What is interesting is the Offense lines up very similar. Last year ND was a top ten rushing offense that obliterated teams because of the two lineman that were drafted in the top 10 of the 1st round. Despite that, the ND passing game struggled. You would have thought with the ability to PA at will Wimbush would have put up huge stats. But it did not happen. Last year UM rush game became decent when they went to power. Yet the same failures occurred just at a whole level of magnitude worse. The UM QB's made Wimbush look like Tom Brady. Magnifying the problem was the dependence on true freshman receivers and a Oline that was having difficult getting the right pass defense line call pre snap. The inconsistent passing game meant the defense with little depth was on the field too much and it became a vicious feedback. Wisc, OSU, and SC were all carbon copies of the same game. The icing was a beautiful play call with 2 minutes left in the OSU game. John O'Korn had a chance at redemption. A 2 man route found the primary receiver open for a 30 yard gain in FG range and the secondary read, the TE breaking open for an easy walk in TD. O'Korn misread the play and threw to the FS. GACK!!!!

What does this have to do with the UM<>ND game? The expected starter Shea does not have to be a star. If he is just an average Big10 QB, this is orders of magnitude of improvement over last year. This is his 3rd year in college football. I expect him to improve over his decent numbers last year. He did something running for his life that Wimbush could not do with the arguably the best Oline in college football which is make 8 ypa. I see UM's Oline being just okay. I think they will be very good at run blocking and iffy at the tackles. There will be some sacks. With a new center and a new line coach I am hoping the missed calls go away. I think it is reasonable to assume that ND will produce more 1st round linemen. They could be playing in this game. But they will not be as good as what just graduated. Not even close. Wimbush is what he is as much as Barrett for OSU. He is going to be really effective running the spread & shred and suck in the passing game. Book is not going to get the start. Great story, great pass. Enjoy it along with the backup Eagle QB. I will do the close to mathematics as I can. Who thinks Wimbush as a senior will improve more than the Oline will go down? Oline could be very good and there still may be a huge gap between stellar and very good.

To me this is where the game boils down. Both teams are going to face 3rd and 8 and/or 2nd in short and a play action opportunity. Would you rather have Wimbush or Shea? I just gave it as a given that both teams will have good skill players. UM's freshman are now 2nd year players and in theory they know how to run routes. ND should have adequate replacements for those who left for the NFL or transferred. I will give Wimbush props in that he does have an opportunity for improvement because he has only started one year. On paper UM is going to look a lot like LSU's defense. If you account for the fact the highest two rated Olinemen in college football are no longer on the team it is going to seem that way. UM showed last year that if the defense was fresh the opposition could not run. They have a great opportunity to improve over last year. Do Notre Dame fans feel they have a guy who can put enough throws together to keep drives going? Conversely Shea does not have to go up against a dominant defense. I think ND defense will be good. However, I see a cap because it does not have a great pass rush. As a UM fan I feel that Shea has a better opportunity making some plays against a very good defense verse Wimbush having to make plays against what is on paper another top ten defense.
 
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Hi I am a UM homer. So will get that out. So take my opinions with a grain of salt. And apologies for long winded spam as just looking for good discussion. Regardless of spread, home night games are a big deal and add a lot of variance. This game is a big deal as even if statistically possible the loser can achieve their goals it is proof that they cannot. UM has a ridiculous schedule. If they can't beat a good team away, how can they achieve to hope to win any other tough away game? Likewise if ND cannot defend their home turf when they have everything in their favor, how can they consider themselves BCS players? So the pressure is on. So will it be on both coaches as I view this game as you lose, it is proof you are out. It should be a great game because of what is at stake. Happy to see the rivalry back. So I looked at all of the units as it is reasonably easy to compare.

Both defenses have almost everyone coming back including everyone in the secondary. ND's defense was ranked in the low 30ties and UM was in the 5th-10th range. You get a different number depending on what the agency rates as more important. UM did this as the younger defense. Many of the players who made this defense dynamic were 2nd year players, first year starters. My personal opinion is the biggest jump in improvement in a player is from his 2nd to 3rd year and/or 1st year starting to the 2nd. I can't comment on ND specifics but my observations on UM is as good as the starters were, there was little dependable depth on the front 7. Every time they attempted to spell their starters, it was disaster. The talk in camp is that there is a dependable two deep not just for the Dline but the linebackers. Football is about the weakest link. Opposing offenses used two exploits to great effect. The first was the wheel against a slower LB like Mike McCray. The 2nd was the slot fade against a safety. Don Brown has a year to figure this out. The solution to the 1st problem is a more space aware LB'er that gets fixed by depth. One of the topics on the second item is why not run out 3 corners and one FS. The consensus of the agencies is UM's two CB's were graded top ten in coverage. No comment if they really are top ten in coverage. Just that however these agencies rank players that is how they graded out. 2016 UM loved to put Jordan Lewis, the best corner on the slot for that reason. So maybe UM may feel they can do it again. For me, Don Brown knows ND and his specialty is thwarting the run spread. He had success when at Boston College having success against ND, FSU, and Clemson. This is his 3rd year and all of those 1st year starters from last year are his players.

What is interesting is the Offense lines up very similar. Last year ND was a top ten rushing offense that obliterated teams because of the two lineman that were drafted in the top 10 of the 1st round. Despite that, the ND passing game struggled. You would have thought with the ability to PA at will Wimbush would have put up huge stats. But it did not happen. Last year UM rush game became decent when they went to power. Yet the same failures occurred just at a whole level of magnitude worse. The UM QB's made Wimbush look like Tom Brady. Magnifying the problem was the dependence on true freshman receivers and a Oline that was having difficult getting the right pass defense line call pre snap. The inconsistent passing game meant the defense with little depth was on the field too much and it became a vicious feedback. Wisc, OSU, and SC were all carbon copies of the same game. The icing was a beautiful play call with 2 minutes left in the OSU game. John O'Korn had a chance at redemption. A 2 man route found the primary receiver open for a 30 yard gain in FG range and the secondary read, the TE breaking open for an easy walk in TD. O'Korn misread the play and threw to the FS. GACK!!!!

What does this have to do with the UM<>ND game? The expected starter Shea does not have to be a star. If he is just an average Big10 QB, this is orders of magnitude of improvement over last year. This is his 3rd year in college football. I expect him to improve over his decent numbers last year. He did something running for his life that Wimbush could not do with the arguably the best Oline in college football which is make 8 ypa. I see UM's Oline being just okay. I think they will be very good at run blocking and iffy at the tackles. There will be some sacks. With a new center and a new line coach I am hoping the missed calls go away. I think it is reasonable to assume that ND will produce more 1st round linemen. They could be playing in this game. But they will not be as good as what just graduated. Not even close. Wimbush is what he is as much as Barrett for OSU. He is going to be really effective running the spread & shred and suck in the passing game. Book is not going to get the start. Great story, great pass. Enjoy it along with the backup Eagle QB. I will do the close to mathematics as I can. Who thinks Wimbush as a senior will improve more than the Oline will go down? Oline could be very good and there still may be a huge gap between stellar and very good.

To me this is where the game boils down. Both teams are going to face 3rd and 8 and/or 2nd in short and a play action opportunity. Would you rather have Wimbush or Shea? I just gave it as a given that both teams will have good skill players. UM's freshman are now 2nd year players and in theory they know how to run routes. ND should have adequate replacements for those who left for the NFL or transferred. I will give Wimbush props in that he does have an opportunity for improvement because he has only started one year. On paper UM is going to look a lot like LSU's defense. If you account for the fact the highest two rated Olinemen in college football are no longer on the team it is going to seem that way. UM showed last year that if the defense was fresh the opposition could not run. They have a great opportunity to improve over last year. Do Notre Dame fans feel they have a guy who can put enough throws together to keep drives going? Conversely Shea does not have to go up against a dominant defense. I think ND defense will be good. However, I see a cap because it does not have a great pass rush. As a UM fan I feel that Shea has a better opportunity making some plays against a very good defense verse Wimbush having to make plays against what is on paper another top ten defense.

Let me summarize this post for everyone:
  • "I assume all that all the Michigan players are really good...despite the fact that literally ALL OF THEM on BOTH SIDES OF THE BALL sucked against every decent team they've faced"
  • "I further assume significant improvement for ALL Michigan players...because Michigan!!"
  • "Finally, I assume that all ND players are exactly what I saw from 2-3 ND losses...and will have marginal improvement, if any at all"
  • So....I like Michigan's chances


Unfortunately for you, here is some reality:
  • Shea Patterson has SUCKED against every quality opponent he's every faced. And that was when he was playing in a FAR better offensive system with MORE offensive talent around him than what he'll have at Michigan
  • Michigan's rushing attack SUCKED against every quality opponent it faced...and not just the OTs, but the entire OL and the RB's as well. Michigan could only run the ball against NON-BOWL ELIGIBLE OPPONENTS like Rutgers, Minnesota, and Indiana
  • Michigan's Rush defense was WEAK against every quality opponent it faced. This defense gets a lot of hype, but like Michigan's HC...it's unearned. It simply couldn't stop a good rushing attack.
So Michigan doesn't have a QB, Rushing Attack, or Rushing Defense that has ever shown it can do anything against a quality opponent.



Once we get to reality on the Michigan facts, we can turn our attention towards your delusions regarding Notre Dame
 
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Lol @ ND a 2 pt favorite. Michigan probably has the best defense in college football. Combine that with the best dual at wide receiver and Shea Patterson coming in. My bookie made Michigan a seven point favorite
Still giving 200 to 1 on your grand on meatchicken to win the nattie.
 
I will go back to the original question. Would you rather you have Wimbush or Patterson as your QB when it is 3rd and 8. You have to be careful picking and choosing games. All individuals will have bad examples including Wimbush.
 
I will go back to the original question. Would you rather you have Wimbush or Patterson as your QB when it is 3rd and 8. You have to be careful picking and choosing games. All individuals will have bad examples including Wimbush.

That would be fair if we were "Picking and Choosing"

When Patterson has had literally 0 good games against quality opponents...that says something

It would be different if Patterson had been "Up and Down" against quality opponents, as Wimbush has been.

I'm not sure I'd want Patterson, or Michigan's offense as a whole, on 3rd-and-1 against a Top25 opponent....let alone 3rd-and-8

Which CFB game are you pointing towards for your belief that Patterson can suddenly play well against Top25 level opponents?
 
“For all the hype about Shea Patterson, the dude threw 9 picks and put the ball on the ground 5 times in 7 games. Ole Miss was 3-4 when he went down, with wins over South Alabama, Tennessee-Martin and Vanderbilt. He went 10-23 against LSU, 14-29 against Alabama and had 5 INT's in those two games while tossing zero TD's.”

- Rivals Analyst on Shea Patterson
 
“For all the hype about Shea Patterson, the dude threw 9 picks and put the ball on the ground 5 times in 7 games. Ole Miss was 3-4 when he went down, with wins over South Alabama, Tennessee-Martin and Vanderbilt. He went 10-23 against LSU, 14-29 against Alabama and had 5 INT's in those two games while tossing zero TD's.”

- Rivals Analyst on Shea Patterson

In fact, the QB that replaced Patterson was clearly more successful than him....both statistically and on the scoreboard, Leading Ole Miss to their only win over a Top25 team in rival Mississippi State.

Patterson has shown he's All-World when facing teams that won't make a bowl game...but he's not even all county when facing competition with a pulse.

Thoughts @hfhmilkman ?
 
If you read my full post my ask is I am not asking Patterson to be a great or even very good QB. To be honest until he develops I will not know. I have never seen any tape on him. This is what I do know. The biggest negative impact on the Michigan offense last year was the play of the QB. Even when Speight was the starter he was making significant mistakes the worse example being the UF game. It was even worse after his injury and teams stopped respecting the pass and stacked the box. So just having an average Div I QB in my opinions will do wonders. You want to declare someone who was considered the best pocket prospect in his class as completely broken after two years of college football, fine. I will take my chances that he was young and up against the best power teams of the SEC West. Ole Miss did not stack up talent wise. Jim Harbaugh is a very savvy play designer. He will put his QB's in a position to succeed just like he did for O'Korn against OSU. How do you pull the following off? OSU knows there is a bomb at QB and Harbaugh's staff pulls a rabbit that could have won the game if O'Korn makes a simple Div I read.

The Michigan offense failed last year because the run game was just decent and not good enough to overcome a black hole at QB. Contrast to ND. ND had a dominant running game. Yet when Wimbush was asked to pass the ball he struggled even against doormats. I will give him props that he seems to make good decisions unlike Ian Book. He might miss the throw. But it is at least not to the other team.

Here is the crux of my argument. As great a spread and shredder as Wimbush is, he has the same failures of the UM QB's. Its just that they were masked by the best Oline in college football. Just as UM's QB play can go nowhere but up, ND line play can go nowhere but down. It is statistically possible that ND will generate two top ten linemen and Shea Patterson could be as bad as John O'Korn. What I do know is Wimbush as a 3rd year player could not complete 50% of his passes with pretty good skill players around him and of course a top ten running attack.

I'm a math guy. Classic MIN/MAX from calculus. Do you think Wimbush will improve more than the Oline will go down in performance? Jim Harbaugh has a history of getting something out of a QB if he is decent. He figured out how to use Alex Smith, played to Kapernicks strengths, got something out of Jake Ruddock, and turned Wilton Speight into a 1st, the 1st QB recruited by Al Borges to start a Div I game as a QB.

So no I am not too concerned that Patterson did not have good games against the superior SEC teams. If Shea Patterson is 2016 Wilton Speight I will take that. This is theoretical best case as a UM fan. The 1996 UM was in a similar situation in that bad QB play and pedestrian line play led to a disappointing year. The dominant defense was completely masked. 1997 was turned around because Brian Griese managed the team. He was not great. But he had a pulse. As a fan that is what I am looking and hoping for out of Patterson. You have a sustaining offense that just eats some clock and the defense can go the rest of the way. Look at the half splits and the narrative was the same. The defense wore out as UM had difficulty sustaining drives even against bad teams. You give that defense a blow plus having some depth they could carry the team. Then you are not giving up long drives to Wisc and OSU because you have gassed your defense.

So in summary I see the equation is the odds are that a 3rd year Patterson will be a significant improvement over 2017 QB play. I'm making the assumption that the UM line play is only margionally better and the only improvement is picking up stunts which was a pre snap problem. I think that the improvement there will be greater than what can come out of a 4th year Wimbush minus a Oline that must come down. It may be that Patterson only made plays against bad teams. But Wimbush could not even do that even when in a perfect situation. He had multiple sub 50% completion games against doormats. Of course ND cleaned up because they ran for 3 billion yards.

So yes if Shea Patterson as the number one QB recruit can't do in his 3rd year what Wilton Speight did I will shake my fists at the recruiting agencies and take up curling. I will take my chances with the unknown. I feel that I have a good read on Wimbush. As bad as QB play was for UM in their bowl game, Wimbush technically did worse in that he was pulled. The strength of UM's defense last year was the secondary. And one of those corners on the number one pass defense is being pushed by another young player, thus me surmising if a 3 corner one safety look would be an interesting scheme. Regardless of how well ND runs, that is what I am looking at what Wimbush will have to succeed against.

Regardless I applaud these two teams are playing each other as I would rather see Michigan lose to a good team like ND in an entertaining game then steam roll a cupcake.
 
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If you read my full post my ask is I am not asking Patterson to be a great or even very good QB. To be honest until he develops I will not know. I have never seen any tape on him. This is what I do know. The biggest negative impact on the Michigan offense last year was the play of the QB. Even when Speight was the starter he was making significant mistakes the worse example being the UF game. It was even worse after his injury and teams stopped respecting the pass and stacked the box. So just having an average Div I QB in my opinions will do wonders. You want to declare someone who was considered the best pocket prospect in his class as completely broken after two years of college football, fine. I will take my chances that he was young and up against the best power teams of the SEC West. Ole Miss did not stack up talent wise. Jim Harbaugh is a very savvy play designer. He will put his QB's in a position to succeed just like he did for O'Korn against OSU. How do you pull the following off? OSU knows there is a bomb at QB and Harbaugh's staff pulls a rabbit that could have won the game if O'Korn makes a simple Div I read.

The Michigan offense failed last year because the run game was just decent and not good enough to overcome a black hole at QB. Contrast to ND. ND had a dominant running game. Yet when Wimbush was asked to pass the ball he struggled even against doormats. I will give him props that he seems to make good decisions unlike Ian Book. He might miss the throw. But it is at least not to the other team.

Here is the crux of my argument. As great a spread and shredder as Wimbush is, he has the same failures of the UM QB's. Its just that they were masked by the best Oline in college football. Just as UM's QB play can go nowhere but up, ND line play can go nowhere but down. It is statistically possible that ND will generate two top ten linemen and Shea Patterson could be as bad as John O'Korn. What I do know is Wimbush as a 3rd year player could not complete 50% of his passes with pretty good skill players around him and of course a top ten running attack.

I'm a math guy. Classic MIN/MAX from calculus. Do you think Wimbush will improve more than the Oline will go down in performance? Jim Harbaugh has a history of getting something out of a QB if he is decent. He figured out how to use Alex Smith, played to Kapernicks strengths, got something out of Jake Ruddock, and turned Wilton Speight into a 1st, the 1st QB recruited by Al Borges to start a Div I game as a QB.

So no I am not too concerned that Patterson did not have good games against the superior SEC teams. If Shea Patterson is 2016 Wilton Speight I will take that. This is theoretical best case as a UM fan. The 1996 UM was in a similar situation in that bad QB play and pedestrian line play led to a disappointing year. The dominant defense was completely masked. 1997 was turned around because Brian Griese managed the team. He was not great. But he had a pulse. As a fan that is what I am looking and hoping for out of Patterson. You have a sustaining offense that just eats some clock and the defense can go the rest of the way. Look at the half splits and the narrative was the same. The defense wore out as UM had difficulty sustaining drives even against bad teams. You give that defense a blow plus having some depth they could carry the team. Then you are not giving up long drives to Wisc and OSU because you have gassed your defense.

So in summary I see the equation is the odds are that a 3rd year Patterson will be a significant improvement over 2017 QB play. I'm making the assumption that the UM line play is only margionally better and the only improvement is picking up stunts which was a pre snap problem. I think that the improvement there will be greater than what can come out of a 4th year Wimbush minus a Oline that must come down. It may be that Patterson only made plays against bad teams. But Wimbush could not even do that even when in a perfect situation. He had multiple sub 50% completion games against doormats. Of course ND cleaned up because they ran for 3 billion yards.

So yes if Shea Patterson as the number one QB recruit can't do in his 3rd year what Wilton Speight did I will shake my fists at the recruiting agencies and take up curling. I will take my chances with the unknown. I feel that I have a good read on Wimbush. As bad as QB play was for UM in their bowl game, Wimbush technically did worse in that he was pulled. The strength of UM's defense last year was the secondary. And one of those corners on the number one pass defense is being pushed by another young player, thus me surmising if a 3 corner one safety look would be an interesting scheme. Regardless of how well ND runs, that is what I am looking at what Wimbush will have to succeed against.

Regardless I applaud these two teams are playing each other as I would rather see Michigan lose to a bad team in an entertaining game then steam roll a cupcake.

Wow. You sure type a lot for someone who has no idea what he's talking about.

Let's get started:

(1) Shea Patterson was not "Up and Down" against quality competition.....he flat-out sucked, every time. He wasn't decent or "young but talented", he SUCKED against quality competition. And that wasn't just elite SEC competition, it was also against Cal from the No-Defense Pac12 and against Teams like Texas A&M, who barely even field a defense. Seriously, please point to even 1 good game he had against a quality CFB oponent...JUST 1. I'll wait.

(2) Wimbush ABSOLUTELY made plays in 2017. Not only that, he made plays against quality competition (something Shea has never done).
- Against USC (Pac12 Champ), he made plays
- Against Mich St (better than Mich), made plays
- Against NC St (Top25 opponent), made plays
You apparently don't have any read on Wimbush at all. Not to mention the fact that you're likely to face a MUCH improved Wimbush in 2018, as he makes the typical "2nd Year Jump"

(3) Michigan's OL is going to be hot garbage, especially at OT. That's just reality. Patterson is at his worst when he's pressured....which Michigan's OL will ensure happens every snap.

(4) Counting on major regression from ND's OL is unwise. We actually return 4 players who started multiple games along the OL in 2017 in Bars (LG), Mustipher (C), Kraemer (RG), and Hainsey (RT). Additionally, out "least experienced player" will also be our most talented, Liam Eichenberg (LT). He's a 3rd Year player who the coaches have said was the 2nd Most talented OL on the team in 2017, behind Nelson, but didn't start because he wasn't consistent enough yet. That means his own coaches said Eichenberg was MORE TALENTED than a Top10 Overall Pick at OT,Mike McGlinchey...while McGlinchey was still on the team and starting at LT!! Brian Kelly has had a Future 1st Round Pick start at LT for every single season he's been at ND (Zach Martin, Ronnie Stanley, Mike McGlinchey), and I'd expect that streak to continue with Liam Eichenberg there.

Overall, the ND OL may take a small step back despite all the talent and experience it returns, just because of how good Quenton Nelson was ... But the Michigan OL will likely regress MORE than the ND OL will, due to the fact that Michigan lost its only player capable of actually playing OT at a Div I level
(don't even get me started on "players" like Bushell-Beaetty, Runyan, or James "Defensive Tackle" Hudson)




Do you actually live in a world of facts, or do you just makeup whatever BS helps you get out of bed each day?
 
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If you read my full post my ask is I am not asking Patterson to be a great or even very good QB. To be honest until he develops I will not know. I have never seen any tape on him. This is what I do know. The biggest negative impact on the Michigan offense last year was the play of the QB. Even when Speight was the starter he was making significant mistakes the worse example being the UF game. It was even worse after his injury and teams stopped respecting the pass and stacked the box. So just having an average Div I QB in my opinions will do wonders. You want to declare someone who was considered the best pocket prospect in his class as completely broken after two years of college football, fine. I will take my chances that he was young and up against the best power teams of the SEC West. Ole Miss did not stack up talent wise. Jim Harbaugh is a very savvy play designer. He will put his QB's in a position to succeed just like he did for O'Korn against OSU. How do you pull the following off? OSU knows there is a bomb at QB and Harbaugh's staff pulls a rabbit that could have won the game if O'Korn makes a simple Div I read.

The Michigan offense failed last year because the run game was just decent and not good enough to overcome a black hole at QB. Contrast to ND. ND had a dominant running game. Yet when Wimbush was asked to pass the ball he struggled even against doormats. I will give him props that he seems to make good decisions unlike Ian Book. He might miss the throw. But it is at least not to the other team.

Here is the crux of my argument. As great a spread and shredder as Wimbush is, he has the same failures of the UM QB's. Its just that they were masked by the best Oline in college football. Just as UM's QB play can go nowhere but up, ND line play can go nowhere but down. It is statistically possible that ND will generate two top ten linemen and Shea Patterson could be as bad as John O'Korn. What I do know is Wimbush as a 3rd year player could not complete 50% of his passes with pretty good skill players around him and of course a top ten running attack.

I'm a math guy. Classic MIN/MAX from calculus. Do you think Wimbush will improve more than the Oline will go down in performance? Jim Harbaugh has a history of getting something out of a QB if he is decent. He figured out how to use Alex Smith, played to Kapernicks strengths, got something out of Jake Ruddock, and turned Wilton Speight into a 1st, the 1st QB recruited by Al Borges to start a Div I game as a QB.

So no I am not too concerned that Patterson did not have good games against the superior SEC teams. If Shea Patterson is 2016 Wilton Speight I will take that. This is theoretical best case as a UM fan. The 1996 UM was in a similar situation in that bad QB play and pedestrian line play led to a disappointing year. The dominant defense was completely masked. 1997 was turned around because Brian Griese managed the team. He was not great. But he had a pulse. As a fan that is what I am looking and hoping for out of Patterson. You have a sustaining offense that just eats some clock and the defense can go the rest of the way. Look at the half splits and the narrative was the same. The defense wore out as UM had difficulty sustaining drives even against bad teams. You give that defense a blow plus having some depth they could carry the team. Then you are not giving up long drives to Wisc and OSU because you have gassed your defense.

So in summary I see the equation is the odds are that a 3rd year Patterson will be a significant improvement over 2017 QB play. I'm making the assumption that the UM line play is only margionally better and the only improvement is picking up stunts which was a pre snap problem. I think that the improvement there will be greater than what can come out of a 4th year Wimbush minus a Oline that must come down. It may be that Patterson only made plays against bad teams. But Wimbush could not even do that even when in a perfect situation. He had multiple sub 50% completion games against doormats. Of course ND cleaned up because they ran for 3 billion yards.

So yes if Shea Patterson as the number one QB recruit can't do in his 3rd year what Wilton Speight did I will shake my fists at the recruiting agencies and take up curling. I will take my chances with the unknown. I feel that I have a good read on Wimbush. As bad as QB play was for UM in their bowl game, Wimbush technically did worse in that he was pulled. The strength of UM's defense last year was the secondary. And one of those corners on the number one pass defense is being pushed by another young player, thus me surmising if a 3 corner one safety look would be an interesting scheme. Regardless of how well ND runs, that is what I am looking at what Wimbush will have to succeed against.

Regardless I applaud these two teams are playing each other as I would rather see Michigan lose to a good team like ND in an entertaining game then steam roll a cupcake.
Brevity is your friend.
 
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"Regardless I applaud these two teams are playing each other as I would rather see Michigan lose to a good team like ND in an entertaining game then steam roll a cupcake."

So you edited "bad team" to a "good team like ND?"

Freudian writing slip?
 
To Friedman enjoying the correspondence. As homers we play up our players when optimistic and down play the opposition. You accuse me of ignoring facts when I am depending on statistics and you depend on adjectives. The stats are Patterson was a 2nd year player who generated 8.2 ypa playing against generally superior opposition. Wimbush as a 3rd year player generated 6.8 ypa, completed less than 50% of his passes despite being in an ideal situation. Yet you take it as fact that ND line play will approach the same level of high quality despite losing the two best linemen in all of college football. You take it as fact that Wimbush as an older player who has not faced nearly as much adversity will improve more and that a younger more highly regarded player who also is terrible. I'm sure Patterson made a few quality throws against Alabama when he was not being destroyed. The raw stats are that Wimbush failed to complete 50% of his passes in an ideal situation.

I never said that ND Oline would not be good. I just stated that statically the odds are it will be not as good. That is the fact when you lose the 2 best linemen in all of college football. If ND has a 5 guys who are NFL players, perhaps. I will take your word on it. How did the other guys grade out?

I don't get it. How come Wimbush is going to make a 2nd year jump but Patterson is dead meat? When I see Wimbush I see Denard Robinson or CJ Barrett. Spread & Shred, rocket arm, no accuracy. He missed a lot more plays than he made. There was a reason why he was pulled from the bowl game. Last year Wimbush missed a lot of throws despite great situations. When you go up against a MAC team you should have a state line like 21 for 28.

You are correct we absolutely have to go on facts. ND could generate their typical 1st day linemen and still not be nearly as good. How do you beat the two best on one team? Patterson could be worse than any QB on UM. Yet he made plays against somebody when UM QB's could make plays against no one.

So Wimbush generated 6.8 ypa on 49% completion. What is your prediction? 55%, 62%? Can he get to 8.0 ypa? Or does it not matter because you think ND can still run for 200 yards every game?
 
Just for completeness if I can get 60% completion and a ypa north of 7 with no more than one TO from Patterson against good competition like Notre Dame, I will be satisfied. Of course I would want more. But that would be good enough for me to think UM could compete against a team like Notre Dame.

Stat line of 18-30 210 yards 1TD, one 1 INT or one lost fumble. If the run offense gets about 140 yards on 35 attempts including sack yardage I would take that against ND.
 
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To Friedman enjoying the correspondence. As homers we play up our players when optimistic and down play the opposition. You accuse me of ignoring facts when I am depending on statistics and you depend on adjectives. The stats are Patterson was a 2nd year player who generated 8.2 ypa playing against generally superior opposition. Wimbush as a 3rd year player generated 6.8 ypa, completed less than 50% of his passes despite being in an ideal situation. Yet you take it as fact that ND line play will approach the same level of high quality despite losing the two best linemen in all of college football. You take it as fact that Wimbush as an older player who has not faced nearly as much adversity will improve more and that a younger more highly regarded player who also is terrible. I'm sure Patterson made a few quality throws against Alabama when he was not being destroyed. The raw stats are that Wimbush failed to complete 50% of his passes in an ideal situation.

I never said that ND Oline would not be good. I just stated that statically the odds are it will be not as good. That is the fact when you lose the 2 best linemen in all of college football. If ND has a 5 guys who are NFL players, perhaps. I will take your word on it. How did the other guys grade out?

I don't get it. How come Wimbush is going to make a 2nd year jump but Patterson is dead meat? When I see Wimbush I see Denard Robinson or CJ Barrett. Spread & Shred, rocket arm, no accuracy. He missed a lot more plays than he made. There was a reason why he was pulled from the bowl game. Last year Wimbush missed a lot of throws despite great situations. When you go up against a MAC team you should have a state line like 21 for 28.

You are correct we absolutely have to go on facts. ND could generate their typical 1st day linemen and still not be nearly as good. How do you beat the two best on one team? Patterson could be worse than any QB on UM. Yet he made plays against somebody when UM QB's could make plays against no one.

So Wimbush generated 6.8 ypa on 49% completion. What is your prediction? 55%, 62%? Can he get to 8.0 ypa? Or does it not matter because you think ND can still run for 200 yards every game?

The only "fact" in your post is that you're a homer:

Here are some actual facts:
(Better # , Worse Number, Similar Number)

Wimbush against Top25 Competition:
Record: 4-3
Average Offensive Score: 28 Points
Average Total Yards: 210 Yards
Average Total TD: 2.0
Average INT: 0.5
Average Yards/Play: 5.7 Yards

Average Comp %: 51%


Patterson Against Top25 Competition:
Record: 0-3
Average Offensive Score: 17 Points
Average Total Yards: 130
Average Total TD: 0.5

Average INT: 2.0
Average Yards/Play: 3.5 Yards
Average Comp %: 53%

So against Top25 Competition, Wimbush was the better QB in virtually every meaningful category.

And that is despite the fact that Patterson was in his 2nd Year starting games (started 3 in 2016) while Wimbush was in his 1st Year starting games.

Who do you think typically makes a "bigger jump", the QB going from his 1st Year to his 2nd Year with the same team and the same offense.......or the Player going from his 2nd Year as a starter to his 3rd Year AND also switching teams/offenses???
 
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Just for completeness if I can get 60% completion and a ypa north of 7 with no more than one TO from Patterson against good competition like Notre Dame, I will be satisfied. Of course I would want more. But that would be good enough for me to think UM could compete against a team like Notre Dame.

Well Patterson's currently at 140 Yards, 53% Comp, 5.5 Yards/Play, 1 TD and 2 INTs against good competition

And that was in a offense with MORE TALENT than Michigan will have in 2018, at virtually every position (except TE)

So he needs a MASSIVE jump in every single faccet of his game to even meet your "minimum expectations" against good competition.
 
There is decent talent at UM. UM had at least from a ratings agency perspective recruited the best receiver group they have had since the 1998 group that included David Terrell. Freshman receivers rarely do well unless they come from an academy where they are learning to run routes. Tarik Black was the most polished being an academy guy. He was looking very good until he broke his foot. Donavon Peoples Jones is considered the best football prospect out of the state of Michigan since Charles Rogers. He is still a bird in the bush as I do not consider potential in the equation. He is just an unknown. You noticed I did not talk up any Michigan individuals. DPJ came from a school that did not pass other then jump balls. So he struggled like most frosh receivers to figure out route running. Then again you know Harbaugh loves TE's. He has three or four pretty good players plus a couple Hbacks. They range from pure split out receiving TE's in Gentry to a block 1st mauler in Wheatley. If the receivers are not ready, Harbaugh will happily go with 2 and 3 TE sets. Gentry is a Butt type player. The 3rd TE Eubanks might be the best as he can block like Wheatley and run like Gentry. He was still figuring out route running last year.

I think I can make a case that Patterson will have better skill players around him. And as tough as UM's schedule is it will not be Alabama, Auburn, and LSU in a murderers row. That is pretty brutal declaring a 2nd year kid dead meat because he could not perform against them. Those teams have chewed up far more experienced players.
 
There is decent talent at UM. UM had at least from a ratings agency perspective recruited the best receiver group they have had since the 1998 group that included David Terrell. Freshman receivers rarely do well unless they come from an academy where they are learning to run routes. Tarik Black was the most polished being an academy guy. He was looking very good until he broke his foot. Donavon Peoples Jones is considered the best football prospect out of the state of Michigan since Charles Rogers. He is still a bird in the bush as I do not consider potential in the equation. He is just an unknown. You noticed I did not talk up any Michigan individuals. DPJ came from a school that did not pass other then jump balls. So he struggled like most frosh receivers to figure out route running. Then again you know Harbaugh loves TE's. He has three or four pretty good players plus a couple Hbacks. They range from pure split out receiving TE's in Gentry to a block 1st mauler in Wheatley. If the receivers are not ready, Harbaugh will happily go with 2 and 3 TE sets. Gentry is a Butt type player. The 3rd TE Eubanks might be the best as he can block like Wheatley and run like Gentry. He was still figuring out route running last year.

I think I can make a case that Patterson will have better skill players around him. And as tough as UM's schedule is it will not be Alabama, Auburn, and LSU in a murderers row. That is pretty brutal declaring a 2nd year kid dead meat because he could not perform against them. Those teams have chewed up far more experienced players.

So you suddenly run from facts/stats like a scared little girl once some actual facts/stats are posted, especially with little context.

Are you going to tell us more about how you're sure Patterson has made some plays against quality competition, but Wimbush hasn't and is basically useless?

This is why its good to actually know what you're talking about, before running your mouth
 
"Regardless I applaud these two teams are playing each other as I would rather see Michigan lose to a good team like ND in an entertaining game then steam roll a cupcake."

So you edited "bad team" to a "good team like ND?"

Freudian writing slip?
LOL
 
There is decent talent at UM. UM had at least from a ratings agency perspective recruited the best receiver group they have had since the 1998 group that included David Terrell. Freshman receivers rarely do well unless they come from an academy where they are learning to run routes. Tarik Black was the most polished being an academy guy. He was looking very good until he broke his foot. Donavon Peoples Jones is considered the best football prospect out of the state of Michigan since Charles Rogers. He is still a bird in the bush as I do not consider potential in the equation. He is just an unknown. You noticed I did not talk up any Michigan individuals. DPJ came from a school that did not pass other then jump balls. So he struggled like most frosh receivers to figure out route running. Then again you know Harbaugh loves TE's. He has three or four pretty good players plus a couple Hbacks. They range from pure split out receiving TE's in Gentry to a block 1st mauler in Wheatley. If the receivers are not ready, Harbaugh will happily go with 2 and 3 TE sets. Gentry is a Butt type player. The 3rd TE Eubanks might be the best as he can block like Wheatley and run like Gentry. He was still figuring out route running last year.

I think I can make a case that Patterson will have better skill players around him. And as tough as UM's schedule is it will not be Alabama, Auburn, and LSU in a murderers row. That is pretty brutal declaring a 2nd year kid dead meat because he could not perform against them. Those teams have chewed up far more experienced players.

As far as comparing the talent that Ole Miss had on offense in 2017 to the talent Michigan will have in 2018

RB - Advantage Ole Miss
Ole Miss's RB from 2017 was just drafted in the 5th Round after putting up 1000+ yards. Michigan's best RB is Higdon, who is "just a guy" and would have to over-achieve this year just to match what Patterson already had at Ole Miss.

WR - Advantage Ole Miss
While Michigan has "potential" based on recruiting rankings, Ole Miss had arguably the best WR Corp in the country in AJ Brown, Demarkus Lodge, DK Metcalf, and Van Jefferson. Michigan actually tried to recruit the players with Patterson, to start OVER their current roster (like Patterson)

TE - Advantage Michigan
Michigan has a talented and deep group of TE's, while Ole Miss barely uses the position at all.

OT - MAJOR Advantage Ole Miss
The hot garbage that is the Michigan depth-chart here would be enough to give this to Ole Miss. But Ole Miss also has Greg Little at LT, a former 5* and #1 OT recruit, who was also a Frosh All-American. Their RT is also a potential future NFL draft pick, and is thus better than anyone on Michigan's roster.

OG/C - Push
Michigan has potential on paper, but has sucked at these positions on the field. Michigan may improve some along the interior in 2018, but doesn't have a single proven difference-maker. Similar, Ole Miss struggled on the interior, but had some talent. Ole Miss had 1 OG drafted in 2018 (7th Round) and has "average level" players at both the other positions



So let's review:
  • Wimbush put up MUCH better numbers against quality competition that Patterson did in 2017
  • Wimbush is going from his 1st Year Starting to his 2nd Year (typically the largest jump) while Patterson is going from his 2nd Year to his 3rd Year
  • Wimbush will be in his 2nd Year of this offense and 2nd Year with these players....while Patterson will be brand new to both.
  • Both Wimbush and Patterson are likely getting a downgrade in the offensive talent around them from 2017 to 2018
So how's your "Patterson is SOOO much better than Wimbush" claim looking now....based on facts??

lol
 
So you suddenly run from facts/stats like a scared little girl once some actual facts/stats are posted, especially with little context.

Are you going to tell us more about how you're sure Patterson has made some plays against quality competition, but Wimbush hasn't and is basically useless?

This is why its good to actually know what you're talking about, before running your mouth
The stats are the stats. ND pass offense was 102nd in CF despite having the two best Olinemen in college football. We at UM thought we had a tire fire at 110th. The difference between UM and ND passing offense was .18 ypa plus a few more awful interceptions. Regardless of how you want to break down Patterson's splits his numbers were better than either the ND or UM QB''s by quite a bit. Patterson did something that neither Wimbush or any UM QB could do is make consistent passing plays against someone. Regardless of your opinion of Patterson I would rather take my chances with him then last years options. Even in Patterson's worse games he generated a better completion percentage than Wimbush did on average including cupcakes.

I know the Don Kelly offense. This is not a military academy outfit. ND averaged 27 attempts against teams that were selling out to stop the run. Yet the ypa is almost identical to what Michigan QB's produced in 2017.

You have stated three or four times in different ways that I am afraid of facts, wont use facts, etc etc. What is your response and why you believe that Wimbush in a great situation could not even complete half his passes and how this means he is going to make some kind of jump. I have stated what I expect Patterson to do. Give me your prediction. I'm not interested in TDs because those are opportunity stats. Safe to say no ints as he only threw 6.
I think that whatever incremental improvement will be counteracted in that ND's oline at least in September will only be good instead of off the charts.
 
The stats are the stats. ND pass offense was 102nd in CF despite having the two best Olinemen in college football. We at UM thought we had a tire fire at 110th. The difference between UM and ND passing offense was .18 ypa plus a few more awful interceptions. Regardless of how you want to break down Patterson's splits his numbers were better than either the ND or UM QB''s by quite a bit. Patterson did something that neither Wimbush or any UM QB could do is make consistent passing plays against someone. Regardless of your opinion of Patterson I would rather take my chances with him then last years options. Even in Patterson's worse games he generated a better completion percentage than Wimbush did on average including cupcakes.

I know the Don Kelly offense. This is not a military academy outfit. ND averaged 27 attempts against teams that were selling out to stop the run. Yet the ypa is almost identical to what Michigan QB's produced in 2017.

You have stated three or four times in different ways that I am afraid of facts, wont use facts, etc etc. What is your response and why you believe that Wimbush in a great situation could not even complete half his passes and how this means he is going to make some kind of jump. I have stated what I expect Patterson to do. Give me your prediction. I'm not interested in TDs because those are opportunity stats. Safe to say no ints as he only threw 6.
I think that whatever incremental improvement will be counteracted in that ND's oline at least in September will only be good instead of off the charts.

So more wrong “stats” from you. Got it.

You claim that Patterson had a better completion percentage against quality opponents then Winbush did on average, including cupcakes.

However, Pattersons completion percentage against both Alabama and LSU was worse than when Bush is average. So where are you using facts?

Hell, Patterson’s performance against Auburn on my looks somewhat OK on paper because he put up a ton of numbers during garbage time… After leading his team to a five touchdown deficit.

So what game against a quality opponent are you pointing to for your claim that Patterson can make plays against a quality opponent?

Seriously, which game?
 
The stats are the stats. ND pass offense was 102nd in CF despite having the two best Olinemen in college football. We at UM thought we had a tire fire at 110th. The difference between UM and ND passing offense was .18 ypa plus a few more awful interceptions. Regardless of how you want to break down Patterson's splits his numbers were better than either the ND or UM QB''s by quite a bit. Patterson did something that neither Wimbush or any UM QB could do is make consistent passing plays against someone. Regardless of your opinion of Patterson I would rather take my chances with him then last years options. Even in Patterson's worse games he generated a better completion percentage than Wimbush did on average including cupcakes.

I know the Don Kelly offense. This is not a military academy outfit. ND averaged 27 attempts against teams that were selling out to stop the run. Yet the ypa is almost identical to what Michigan QB's produced in 2017.

You have stated three or four times in different ways that I am afraid of facts, wont use facts, etc etc. What is your response and why you believe that Wimbush in a great situation could not even complete half his passes and how this means he is going to make some kind of jump. I have stated what I expect Patterson to do. Give me your prediction. I'm not interested in TDs because those are opportunity stats. Safe to say no ints as he only threw 6.
I think that whatever incremental improvement will be counteracted in that ND's oline at least in September will only be good instead of off the charts.

Are you were planning to respond to the actual status that I posted about how each QB performed against Top25 competition?

Are you really trying to claim that games against South Alabama and Vanderbilt are more important than games against USC, Michigan State, and other top 25 opponents?

I will be happy to give you my prediction for how each QB and each offense will fare in 2018, once you’ve responded meaningfully to the actual stats and facts that I’ve presented… Instead of running away like a scared little girl.
 
As far as comparing the talent that Ole Miss had on offense in 2017 to the talent Michigan will have in 2018

RB - Advantage Ole Miss
Ole Miss's RB from 2017 was just drafted in the 5th Round after putting up 1000+ yards. Michigan's best RB is Higdon, who is "just a guy" and would have to over-achieve this year just to match what Patterson already had at Ole Miss.

WR - Advantage Ole Miss
While Michigan has "potential" based on recruiting rankings, Ole Miss had arguably the best WR Corp in the country in AJ Brown, Demarkus Lodge, DK Metcalf, and Van Jefferson. Michigan actually tried to recruit the players with Patterson, to start OVER their current roster (like Patterson)

TE - Advantage Michigan
Michigan has a talented and deep group of TE's, while Ole Miss barely uses the position at all.

OT - MAJOR Advantage Ole Miss
The hot garbage that is the Michigan depth-chart here would be enough to give this to Ole Miss. But Ole Miss also has Greg Little at LT, a former 5* and #1 OT recruit, who was also a Frosh All-American. Their RT is also a potential future NFL draft pick, and is thus better than anyone on Michigan's roster.

OG/C - Push
Michigan has potential on paper, but has sucked at these positions on the field. Michigan may improve some along the interior in 2018, but doesn't have a single proven difference-maker. Similar, Ole Miss struggled on the interior, but had some talent. Ole Miss had 1 OG drafted in 2018 (7th Round) and has "average level" players at both the other positions



So let's review:
  • Wimbush put up MUCH better numbers against quality competition that Patterson did in 2017
  • Wimbush is going from his 1st Year Starting to his 2nd Year (typically the largest jump) while Patterson is going from his 2nd Year to his 3rd Year
  • Wimbush will be in his 2nd Year of this offense and 2nd Year with these players....while Patterson will be brand new to both.
  • Both Wimbush and Patterson are likely getting a downgrade in the offensive talent around them from 2017 to 2018
So how's your "Patterson is SOOO much better than Wimbush" claim looking now....based on facts??

lol
Fair enough. Ole Miss was 103rd in rushing. Pretty clear the reason why is they looked to pass the ball. UM averaged 4.37 ypa and Ole Miss 4.34. I do not see how you can say Ole Miss has a better running attack when they don't even try to.

I think you make a good case about the passing attack. However, the three toughest defenses on the schedule were Alabama, Auburn, and LSU. I think you can make the case that LSU receivers have done something that UM have not.

I can't really comment on Ole Miss line play as I depend on grades as I have not seen a single game. I know that UM linemen graded well run blocking, especially after that ditched the zone read. It just was not working. I absolutely agree with you that the biggest question mark even more so than QB is the tackle play. It was hard for me to figure out how bad it was because part of last years problem is appeared the line calls were wrong. I will absolutely agree with you that UM lives and dies on do they fix the pass protection.

There are two guys who I see as potential impact players. Cesar Ruiz was rated the best center prospect in his class and came from an academy where that is what he practiced. He ended up starting at guard as a true freshman. If he is the same blocker and just gets the calls right that goes a long way. The guy everyone is hoping wins at least the RT position is James Hudson. UM did everything last year to redshirt him. He came in as a DT. However, the thought is the staff thinks he could be great. If he does not start, proof that there could be problems as I agree with you none of the other tackles can be considered dynamic at this time.

But you keep going back to Wimbush put up better numbers. He did not. Notre Dame played no one that approached Alabama or Auburn. The one common opponent Wimbush got pulled. ND Oline >> way better than anything at Ole Miss. Your touting Greg Little and comparing to two linemen who just went 1st and 2nd in the NFL draft. Considering that Ole Miss can't run they are not that good. However you slice it Wimbush completed 50% or less of his passes in nine games last year including LSU. Though I play games as he did hit 50% three times. If it was not for Ian Book in garbage time, ND's passing stats for 2017 would have been inferior to UM for everything except TO's. And we all admit that UM with a tire fire at QB and pass protection was exactly that.
 
To Friedman. Enjoy the correspondence but gotta get some work done. Tonight I will break Wimbush's stats out. I will track what he did in the following cases. Passes on running downs. 1st and 10, 2nd and 5 or less, 3rd and 2 and less. 2 minutes or less in a half and I will call it passing down regardless. Then lets see where the numbers lie.
 
Fair enough. Ole Miss was 103rd in rushing. Pretty clear the reason why is they looked to pass the ball. UM averaged 4.37 ypa and Ole Miss 4.34. I do not see how you can say Ole Miss has a better running attack when they don't even try to.

I think you make a good case about the passing attack. However, the three toughest defenses on the schedule were Alabama, Auburn, and LSU. I think you can make the case that LSU receivers have done something that UM have not.

I can't really comment on Ole Miss line play as I depend on grades as I have not seen a single game. I know that UM linemen graded well run blocking, especially after that ditched the zone read. It just was not working. I absolutely agree with you that the biggest question mark even more so than QB is the tackle play. It was hard for me to figure out how bad it was because part of last years problem is appeared the line calls were wrong. I will absolutely agree with you that UM lives and dies on do they fix the pass protection.

There are two guys who I see as potential impact players. Cesar Ruiz was rated the best center prospect in his class and came from an academy where that is what he practiced. He ended up starting at guard as a true freshman. If he is the same blocker and just gets the calls right that goes a long way. The guy everyone is hoping wins at least the RT position is James Hudson. UM did everything last year to redshirt him. He came in as a DT. However, the thought is the staff thinks he could be great. If he does not start, proof that there could be problems as I agree with you none of the other tackles can be considered dynamic at this time.

But you keep going back to Wimbush put up better numbers. He did not. Notre Dame played no one that approached Alabama or Auburn. The one common opponent Wimbush got pulled. ND Oline >> way better than anything at Ole Miss. Your touting Greg Little and comparing to two linemen who just went 1st and 2nd in the NFL draft. Considering that Ole Miss can't run they are not that good. However you slice it Wimbush completed 50% or less of his passes in nine games last year including LSU. Though I play games as he did hit 50% three times. If it was not for Ian Book in garbage time, ND's passing stats for 2017 would have been inferior to UM for everything except TO's. And we all admit that UM with a tire fire at QB and pass protection was exactly that.

Wow. You love ignoring facts:

(1) Ole Miss's RB, OT, and OG/C were better in 2017 than Michigan's in 2018.....because they're better. It's just that simple.
Ole Miss had an NFL Draft RB, Michigan does not.
Ole Miss had a 5* and Future NFL OT....Michigan has pure trash at OT.

(2) You love to give Michigan credit for "Highly rated recruits" who haven't shown anything, or even worse they've already disappointed on the field (Peoples-Jones, Ruiz, Black, Bradeson, etc.)....but you don't want to give anyone else that same assumption, such Eichenberg, Kraemer, Hainsey, Claypool, Mack, etc. for ND.
You see who stupid that is, right?

(3) Wimbush DID succeed against the following Top25 teams:
- USC
- Michigan State
- North Carolina State
Which Top25 team did Patterson succeed against?
Please, name even 1....

(4) In what game against a quality opponent did Michigan run the ball well? Again, please name even 1??
Are you really claiming anyone should be impressed that Michigan's garbage OL and mediocre RB can run against Rutgers and Minnesota??



You seem to LOVE games against South Alabama and Rutgers, but you want to pretend that the games against Top25 teams didn't really happen.


Please, actually try to address this...instead of running
 
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