NOTRE DAME--MICHIGAN, Labor Day Vegas Odds

[FriedmanIP]

I will try one more time. Team one is a hurry up spread team with air raid principles. Play one they throw an incomplete pass clock stops. Play two they throw a complete pass that goes out of bounds. Play three they complete a pass for a 1st down. Clock stops while the offense runs up to keep the defense off balanced. Three plays may have been run yet the 4th play could be being snapped before 35 total seconds have gone off the clock.

Team two is Wisc style power. First run is up the middle. 4 yards gained. After 35 seconds Wisc runs more power up the middle. Another 35 seconds between plays. Wisc runs yes another run and picks up a 1st down and the clock stops while the chains are moved. Yet offense waits until play clock down to 5.

In the second case the exact number of possessions have been run yet the 2nd team has used up over two and a half minutes verses 35 seconds for the 1st. Possession is as useful as using batting average instead of on base percentage or slugging. It will tell you that team is more likely to run and that is about it. Oregon never won the possession numbers. They wore opposing teams out by constant pressure and not letting the defense set. By the 3rd quarter Oregon would be having 3 play 80 yard TD drives because the opposition was completely gassed. Yet on paper the other team should have won.

Now if you look at all of the games UM played the possession numbers are real low. Mainly because UM was trying to take the air out of the ball game. Football is a game of power and explosion, especially for a defensive linemen to be successful. I used to weight train by completing a set of 4-6 reps, wait an interval and do it again. There is a point where I can't do it anymore. If I wait several minutes I may be able to knock out 5 one more time, but if I go back under after 90 seconds I certainly will not get 5 reps. I would have to wait another 15 minutes.

Football is the same thing. Does not matter if the offense had 90 plays and the defense 60. A body has a limit that may be nursed to longer if the intervals are large enough, but eventually you hit it. When I played basketball hard even with rest there is a limit where even with proper hydration I am going to cramp and throw up.

Those dozen guys in the NFL that play 90% of the games are the best of the best. They are worth their money not just because they are good, but they are worth a 2nd player. I showed you the stats on outsiders. Even most of the best of the best generally get a rest. Look at the snap count percentages of the Eagles, the SB winners. They won as much not because they had great line play from their starters, but because they could keep their line fresh. Brandon Graham had enough in the tank to make an explosion move that prevented Tom Brady from doing yet another 2 minute SB victory drive. Why because the Eagles felt confident they could play their backups a third of the total plays. Contrast to Atlanta that was dead meat in overtime.

So let's get this straight......Michigan had the ball for 5 MORE MINUTES than South Carolina ...... but South Carolina just wore out that overplayed, overworked Michigan defense.

Depsite the fact that the Michigan defense was on the field LESS than South Carolina??

And Wisconsin....you're example of a "Power Team".... had almost exactly the same ToP as Michigan as well. And yet that vaunted Michigan defense got steam-rolled in that game as well.

But let me guess.....that doesn't really count either??




You're the biggest and most illogical homer I've seen in a LONG time

 

[hfhmilkman]

So if I’m trolling, you can point to something I said that’s wrong...right?

Or are you so delusional that you hunk reality is trolling now??

I'm guessing but the last time UM won a game against a top10 opponent was 2006 in South Bend. There was a lot of smack talked back then also.

 

[hfhmilkman]

What the hell are you talking about???

These were Michigan's Rush stats against Ohio St:
36 Carries
100 Yards
2.78 Yards/Carry

That's not "Good", it's not even "Okay....that's downright pathetic

Michigan GAVE UP ~5 YPC to Ohio State.....so they had a "Very Good" rushing day against the "elite defense" at Michigan

Is there anything you don't makeup or get wrong??




Seriously....can you even give 1 game, just 1 game, where Michigan's rushing attack didn't SUCK against a quality opponent??

I'm still waiting...

You did not read my post. College counts sack yards as rushing yards unlike the NFL. If this were an NFL game it would be 28 carries at 4.82 ypa. You asked for a game where the UM running attack was able to run against a top10 defense and they did against OSU. Unfortunately they could not pass or pass protect.

You also ignored by break down of OSU, Wisc, and SC games. I think I showed that there was a well known pattern in each game where UM played exceptional defensive football. This is reflected by UM having top 5 numbers for 2nd level metrics at "football outsiders" I will reiterate in that of first 27 drives those teams ran they went 3 and out 66% of the time. Those 27 drives were 105 plays and netted only 24 points, with only OSU having any real success.

There is a reason why Phil Steele is giving UM a non trivial chance to win the NC. I would not go as far as him but he see's the same things I am seeing. You can troll me and call a homer. The Steele report uses the same 2nd level metrics that outsiders uses. If you want to bet against him go for it. He has been wrong. However his success rate has been pretty good.

 

[FriedmanIP]

You did not read my post. College counts sack yards as rushing yards unlike the NFL. If this were an NFL game it would be 28 carries at 4.82 ypa. You asked for a game where the UM running attack was able to run against a top10 defense and they did against OSU. Unfortunately they could not pass or pass protect.

You also ignored by break down of OSU, Wisc, and SC games. I think I showed that there was a well known pattern in each game where UM played exceptional defensive football. This is reflected by UM having top 5 numbers for 2nd level metrics at "football outsiders" I will reiterate in that of first 27 drives those teams ran they went 3 and out 66% of the time. Those 27 drives were 105 plays and netted only 24 points, with only OSU having any real success.

There is a reason why Phil Steele is giving UM a non trivial chance to win the NC. I would not go as far as him but he see's the same things I am seeing. You can troll me and call a homer. The Steele report uses the same 2nd level metrics that outsiders uses. If you want to bet against him go for it. He has been wrong. However his success rate has been pretty good.

So running the balll for less than 3 yards/carry is “good running” now? And protecting the backfield is no longer an aspect of running the ball?

And how exactly
Does Wisconsin fit into you “they all just ran so much hurry up against us...it wasn’t fair. We had the ball more, but our poor defense was just bullied by all that mean hurry up offense” theory. They literally define slow, power football.

You sure like to ignore game results, change numbers, and suddenly shift to random “advanced stats” when you’re challenged to actually point to on field success against quality opponents.

Michigan was rated as one of the top teams coming into 2018 by a TON of folks...especially Michigan fans. But anyone with a brain knew that a team that couldn’t completely against quality comp when it was stacked with seniors would just get bullied once it was all new players.

And what happened?
Michigan got bullied by every team with a pulse....because they lacked the talent, depth, leadership, and coaching needed.

But now they’re being led by Shea “FCS Killer” Patterson and the worlds worst OL...so I’m sure we’ll suddenly see this team start succeeding against quality competition.





So are you planning to pint to even 1 successful rushing performance against a quality opponent?

Are you planning to explain how Wisconsin’s offense ran too much hurry up for Michigan’s poor little defense??

 

[hfhmilkman]

So let's get this straight......Michigan had the ball for 5 MORE MINUTES than South Carolina ...... but South Carolina just wore out that overplayed, overworked Michigan defense.

Depsite the fact that the Michigan defense was on the field LESS than South Carolina??

And Wisconsin....you're example of a "Power Team".... had almost exactly the same ToP as Michigan as well. And yet that vaunted Michigan defense got steam-rolled in that game as well.

But let me guess.....that doesn't really count either??




You're the biggest and most illogical homer I've seen in a LONG time

You are still not listening. The reality of college football is teams including ND recruit and play 2 deep on their Dline. If you have a dominant offense you can get away with it by putting the game away before your defense wears out. It is not a matter of out possessing the other team. It is hitting that limit. UM had a flawed offense that required the defense to win the games. It worked against inferior teams but not the better teams. I am willing to make a prediction that I think this defense will go from 10th to one of the top 5 this year. I can't say 1st verses 3rd, verses 5th as it will depend on the metrics used. 3rd to 5th sounds about right.

And I will admit I am a homer. I am an optimist about all things except the Detroit Lions. But at least I am willing to make a prediction. This entire thread began when I asked you to make a prediction about Wimbush. My entire reasoning may be flawed and a whole bunch of homer hogwash. However, I took last years numbers and made my case. Your case is Michigan sucks, end of story. Which is fine. As you can tell from my gab I like to talk and write. Sports is rather straight forward as history is my true love. I can bore you to death on the silver standard wars of the 19th century

 

[FriedmanIP]

You are still not listening. The reality of college football is teams including ND recruit and play 2 deep on their Dline. If you have a dominant offense you can get away with it by putting the game away before your defense wears out. It is not a matter of out possessing the other team. It is hitting that limit. UM had a flawed offense that required the defense to win the games. It worked against inferior teams but not the better teams. I am willing to make a prediction that I think this defense will go from 10th to one of the top 5 this year. I can't say 1st verses 3rd, verses 5th as it will depend on the metrics used. 3rd to 5th sounds about right.

And I will admit I am a homer. I am an optimist about all things except the Detroit Lions. But at least I am willing to make a prediction. This entire thread began when I asked you to make a prediction about Wimbush. My entire reasoning may be flawed and a whole bunch of homer hogwash. However, I took last years numbers and made my case. Your case is Michigan sucks, end of story. Which is fine. As you can tell from my gab I like to talk and write. Sports is rather straight forward as history is my true love. I can bore you to death on the silver standard wars of the 19th century

Now that you've admitted "Michigan's Defense was weak against quality opponents" ... it's time to justify how a defense that was so bad against every quality opponent was a "Top10 Defense"

Shouldn't a defense have to have success against quality opponents to be a Top10 Defense?

More than 10 other defenses had MUCH MUCH better success than Michigan did



The reality, which you need to admit, was that Michigan's defense was simply "Good, but nothing special" in 2017....and that's the jumping off point that is returning in 2018. That's the type of player Michigan brings back

 

[FriedmanIP]

You are still not listening. The reality of college football is teams including ND recruit and play 2 deep on their Dline. If you have a dominant offense you can get away with it by putting the game away before your defense wears out. It is not a matter of out possessing the other team. It is hitting that limit. UM had a flawed offense that required the defense to win the games. It worked against inferior teams but not the better teams. I am willing to make a prediction that I think this defense will go from 10th to one of the top 5 this year. I can't say 1st verses 3rd, verses 5th as it will depend on the metrics used. 3rd to 5th sounds about right.

And I will admit I am a homer. I am an optimist about all things except the Detroit Lions. But at least I am willing to make a prediction. This entire thread began when I asked you to make a prediction about Wimbush. My entire reasoning may be flawed and a whole bunch of homer hogwash. However, I took last years numbers and made my case. Your case is Michigan sucks, end of story. Which is fine. As you can tell from my gab I like to talk and write. Sports is rather straight forward as history is my true love. I can bore you to death on the silver standard wars of the 19th century

As for an example of spread QB who made a significant jump in completion % , one example would be Northwestern's Clayton Thorson.

In 2015, as a 1st year starter Thorson passed for 51% while rushing for 400 yards.

In 2016, as a 2nd year, Thorson passed for 59% while reducing his rushing.

And Thorson's 1st Year only had a FRACTION of Wimbush's Yards/Attempt, TDs, and rushing production...while putting up just as many INTs


So there is are definitely precendents for improvement from a QB like Wimbush, who has already shown a lot of positives... but obviously has a lot that needs improvement as well

 

[hfhmilkman]

What the hell are you talking about???

These were Michigan's Rush stats against Ohio St:
36 Carries
100 Yards
2.78 Yards/Carry

That's not "Good", it's not even "Okay....that's downright pathetic

Michigan GAVE UP ~5 YPC to Ohio State.....so they had a "Very Good" rushing day against the "elite defense" at Michigan

Is there anything you don't makeup or get wrong??




Seriously....can you even give 1 game, just 1 game, where Michigan's rushing attack didn't SUCK against a quality opponent??

I'm still waiting...

College statistics puts sacks yardage under rushing unlike the NFL. I was looking at the running backs not the sacks that O'Korn took. O'Korn was extremely suspectable to sacks because if he got pressured, his first instinct is to turn his back on the play. A bad thing to do when Joey Bosa is breathing down your throat. Works great for Madden football. Not so good in real life. If you take out the sack yards UM RB's averaged 4.82 ypc which is pretty good against a top ten rushing defense.

 

[FriedmanIP]

College statistics puts sacks yardage under rushing unlike the NFL. I was looking at the running backs not the sacks that O'Korn took. O'Korn was extremely suspectable to sacks because if he got pressured, his first instinct is to turn his back on the play. A bad thing to do when Joey Bosa is breathing down your throat. Works great for Madden football. Not so good in real life. If you take out the sack yards UM RB's averaged 4.82 ypc which is pretty good against a top ten rushing defense.

It's really not though....because you'd then have to do the exact same thing with every other team in CFB and in every other game.

Failing to protect the backfield is a principle failing of the OL, in both the run game and the pass game. You keep trying to blame the QB and pretend it will magically be different with Patterson....but that's just not the case. Those Sacks and TFL are primarily on the OL, not on the QB.

So that 2.78 YPC and 100 Yard performance was pretty PATHETIC by the OL, because they just got abused, play after play.

Is there a performance you can point to where the OL actually performed well against a quality opponent, instead of getting abused?

 

[hfhmilkman]

Now that you've admitted "Michigan's Defense was weak against quality opponents" ... it's time to justify how a defense that was so bad against every quality opponent was a "Top10 Defense"

Shouldn't a defense have to have success against quality opponents to be a Top10 Defense?

More than 10 other defenses had MUCH MUCH better success than Michigan did



The reality, which you need to admit, was that Michigan's defense was simply "Good, but nothing special" in 2017....and that's the jumping off point that is returning in 2018. That's the type of player Michigan brings back

I never said Michigan's defense was special last year. I said very early on about 10th was about what they were. What I did is look at last years statistics to make a prediction for this year. Based on what I saw last year I think UM can be a top 5 defense especially if they get average production from the QB. The 2016 recipe was combine a dominant defense with solid ball control and just not give an opponent any series. This was done with pretty pedestrian skill players and Oline.

Your problem is you depend to much on adjectives. While you are using the adjective of suck and thinking I am saying great or dominant. I said 10th.

While you say Patterson will suck I say I'm looking for a QB rating of 135-140 which Speight was able to do in 2016. I don't know this English language thing. Any old Bubba can be a homer and say their team is going is going to rock. I'm making my case with the numbers. My favorite topic in Physics was Statistical Mechanics. Football is not as sure a thing as predicting the odds of all the air leaving your room or in this case not, but come Sept based on my homework I think UM has a pretty good chance to do some surprising. There are a lot of similarities to 1985, 1997, and 2006.

 

[hfhmilkman]

It's really not though....because you'd then have to do the exact same thing with every other team in CFB and in every other game.

Failing to protect the backfield is a principle failing of the OL, in both the run game and the pass game. You keep trying to blame the QB and pretend it will magically be different with Patterson....but that's just not the case. Those Sacks and TFL are primarily on the OL, not on the QB.

So that 2.78 YPC and 100 Yard performance was pretty PATHETIC by the OL, because they just got abused, play after play.

Is there a performance you can point to where the OL actually performed well against a quality opponent, instead of getting abused?

Watch the game. No one will dispute that UM Oline was shakey in pass protection. However, O'Korn was vulnerable to the sack because his first instinct is to turn his back to the play Madden football style. So he gave up a bunch of sacks and not only just sacks but sacks for big losses.

You asked for a game where UM ran the ball successfully against a highly rated defense and I showed you. Sacks occur during the passing game which is why the NFL does not count it. It generates false narratives which people like you and Bubba like to seize upon.

If you really want to know how good a Oline and a running back is you need to go to a site that grades each player. Individual grades account for things like situation.

Example in an alternate universe John O'Korn was the starting QB for ND and FriedmanIP is a ND hater. Opposing teams would have stacked the box and dared O'Korn to throw which would generate epic results. FriedmanIP would troll the ND board about how crummy ND's offensive line was because the yardage numbers would not look good, plus O'Korn gives up tons of bad sack yardage. Yet the NFL scouts would have still taken Nelson and McGlinchey where they did. The reason is they were measured on their individual grades, not the team success. Now did UM have an exceptional line? Absolutely not. But they much better in 2016 despite on paper not having a line much better than the 2017 line.

I personally think UM made a mistake. They were able to get by with Bredeson at RT in 2016 after the gruesome Newsome injury. Now he is a natural guard and that is where he played in 2017. But I have to wonder if we would have been better on day one living with him and just throwing Ruiz out on day one.

 

[hfhmilkman]

As for an example of spread QB who made a significant jump in completion % , one example would be Northwestern's Clayton Thorson.

In 2015, as a 1st year starter Thorson passed for 51% while rushing for 400 yards.

In 2016, as a 2nd year, Thorson passed for 59% while reducing his rushing.

And Thorson's 1st Year only had a FRACTION of Wimbush's Yards/Attempt, TDs, and rushing production...while putting up just as many INTs


So there is are definitely precendents for improvement from a QB like Wimbush, who has already shown a lot of positives... but obviously has a lot that needs improvement as well

You found a very good comparison. I had forgotten about Thorson. NW was a very extreme run heavy team just like ND. Justin Jackson was run into ground. The only comment I would make is Thorson was a 2nd year player as a first year starter verses a 3rd year player being a first year starter. The question is how much was that improvement going from being a young player to having a second year in the offense. I can't really say. I am hoping that by walking these spread QB's at various programs you see that once a player becomes what he is, improvement becomes usually becomes incremental. Thorson was probably a better QB in 2017 even if his stats were a little off as the nature of the team and schedule may have changed.

I personally think a 25-30 point ratings improvement would be a quite a stretch. And if so ND has an opportunity for a BCS run.

 

[FriedmanIP]

You found a very good comparison. I had forgotten about Thorson. NW was a very extreme run heavy team just like ND. Justin Jackson was run into ground. The only comment I would make is Thorson was a 2nd year player as a first year starter verses a 3rd year player being a first year starter. The question is how much was that improvement going from being a young player to having a second year in the offense. I can't really say. I am hoping that by walking these spread QB's at various programs you see that once a player becomes what he is, improvement becomes usually becomes incremental. Thorson was probably a better QB in 2017 even if his stats were a little off as the nature of the team and schedule may have changed.

I personally think a 25-30 point ratings improvement would be a quite a stretch. And if so ND has an opportunity for a BCS run.

Wimbush was a young QB, considering he had only 2 years with varsity, and 1 Eith the scout team.

QBs tends to make the major jump (not just incremental) between their 1st Year starting and their 2nd Year.

Patterson has already passed this mark...and he still SUCKS every time he faced an opponent with a pulse.

Wimbush is just now hitting this mark, and he’s already shown that he can rip apart a quality opponent when he plays to his potnential.

But Patterson > Wimbush ...lol
This is why your such a massive homer. You ignore facts and make up BS.

Tell me more about how Michigan’s poor defense was on the field too much...after WINNING the Time of Possession battle

 

[tbonesays]

Wimbush was a young QB, considering he had only 2 years with varsity, and 1 Eith the scout team.

QBs tends to make the major jump (not just incremental) between their 1st Year starting and their 2nd Year.

have any of Kelly's improved in the 2nd year? THe only possibility is maybe Tom Rees did, but then and now he is in over his head.

 

[FriedmanIP]

have any of Kelly's improved in the 2nd year? THe only possibility is maybe Tom Rees did, but then and now he is in over his head.

Which QB has he had that's started for 2 consecutive seasons?

Rees sort of did from 2010 into 2011....but not really. Crist began both of those seasons as the starter.

Kizer sort of did from 2015 to 2016....but not really. Zaire was the uncontested starter going into 2015 and there was no clear starter going into 2016.

We've had unreal instability at QB, between mediocre talents (Rees), suspension (Golson), unnecessarily long QB competitions (Zaire/Kizer, Crist/Rees), NFL early entrants (Kizer)

It will be interesting to see how much our QB play can improve when (if) we start having some stability, being with multiple consecutive years of Wimbush

 

[echowaker]

have any of Kelly's improved in the 2nd year? THe only possibility is maybe Tom Rees did, but then and now he is in over his head.

I don't see how rees is currently "in over his head " ? care to elaborate ?

 

[zonairish]

Which QB has he had that's started for 2 consecutive seasons?

Rees sort of did from 2010 into 2011....but not really. Crist began both of those seasons as the starter.

Kizer sort of did from 2015 to 2016....but not really. Zaire was the uncontested starter going into 2015 and there was no clear starter going into 2016.

We've had unreal instability at QB, between mediocre talents (Rees), suspension (Golson), unnecessarily long QB competitions (Zaire/Kizer, Crist/Rees), NFL early entrants (Kizer)

It will be interesting to see how much our QB play can improve when (if) we start having some stability, being with multiple consecutive years of Wimbush[/QUOTE

good answer

 

[tbonesays]

I don't see how rees is currently "in over his head " ? care to elaborate ?

He's not qualified to be a qb coach at a T1 program, at best he's learning it as an apprentice. Kinda like in 2011 when it was inconceivable that any top program would want him at starting qb.

And BK has had a minimum of 3 returning starters at qb now. Very few coaches get that many chances with an experienced qb.

 

[FriedmanIP]

He's not qualified to be a qb coach at a T1 program, at best he's learning it as an apprentice. Kinda like in 2011 when it was inconceivable that any top program would want him at starting qb.

And BK has had a minimum of 3 returning starters at qb now. Very few coaches get that many chances with an experienced qb.

Who were "returning starters" and in which year?

• Calling Rees a "returning starter", when he was literally never named as a starter during any off-season seems like a major stretch.
• Golson's only year as a "returning starter", he was "returning" from an entire year off the team and out of the school.
• Kizer was only name the starter 1x....and even that didn't happen until the 2nd game of the 2016 season

Kelly and Co. certainly don't get a total pass for what's been going at the QB position during his tenure, but it's unfair to pretend that there has been stability there with which he could develop players too

Pretty tough to say "no QB has developed as a 2nd year starter"...when we've never had the same QB actually start for 2 consecutive seasons

 

[NDAFArly]

He's not qualified to be a qb coach at a T1 program, at best he's learning it as an apprentice. Kinda like in 2011 when it was inconceivable that any top program would want him at starting qb.

And BK has had a minimum of 3 returning starters at qb now. Very few coaches get that many chances with an experienced qb.

Explain the qualifications for a QB coach at the D1 level to me? Because he has the exact qualifications as almost every single QB coach who started out in the country?

And he beat a lot of D1 schools as a starting QB.

He understands so much more football than any of us. And has been a great recruiter too.

 

[justified1]

Explain the qualifications for a QB coach at the D1 level to me? Because he has the exact qualifications as almost every single QB coach who started out in the country?

And he beat a lot of D1 schools as a starting QB.

He understands so much more football than any of us. And has been a great recruiter too.

Just how can you know that as a certainty? Just because ND hired him?

 

[NDAFArly]

Just how can you know that as a certainty? Just because ND hired him?

No, because go look at all the QB coaches across the country.
The majority of them are former QBs with the same or less experience as Rees.
That’s the point. Most QB coaches at the D1 level are former QBs, most of which didn’t play as mush as Rees or grow up in a football coaching family like Rees did.
Rees’ knowledge of the game was his best attribute & everyone knew he would be a former coach.

 

[echowaker]

He's not qualified to be a qb coach at a T1 program, at best he's learning it as an apprentice. Kinda like in 2011 when it was inconceivable that any top program would want him at starting qb.

And BK has had a minimum of 3 returning starters at qb now. Very few coaches get that many chances with an experienced qb.

Totally disagree.

 

[tbonesays]

Checked a few QB-centric schools, generally th QB coach is also the HC or OC. Auburn was interesting, they have an ex-qb in the coaching ranks and they sent him to coach high school first.

 

[hfhmilkman]

Wimbush was a young QB, considering he had only 2 years with varsity, and 1 Eith the scout team.

QBs tends to make the major jump (not just incremental) between their 1st Year starting and their 2nd Year.

Patterson has already passed this mark...and he still SUCKS every time he faced an opponent with a pulse.

Wimbush is just now hitting this mark, and he’s already shown that he can rip apart a quality opponent when he plays to his potnential.

But Patterson > Wimbush ...lol
This is why your such a massive homer. You ignore facts and make up BS.

Tell me more about how Michigan’s poor defense was on the field too much...after WINNING the Time of Possession battle

Well we are both homers than I suppose. You claim Wimbush is going to make a giant leap yet Patterson is incapable. I don't get where you say Patterson has passed the mark. He is going into his 3rd year. Patterson will have as many skill players as Speight did in 2016. You can't even give me a projected rating for Wimbush. It is all adjectives. I'm looking for a 135 rating and if so UM will be just fine.

 

[Duo]

Vegas odds 5-22-2018. Michigan -1

 

[FriedmanIP]

Vegas odds 5-22-2018. Michigan -1

Line has fluctuated a ton.

I’ve seen ND and Michigan both be favored by as much as 3 at times.

That’s going to continue until kickoff.