Brian Kelly is Building a Notre Dame Football Monster with 2020-21 Recruiting Classes

[Catholicfan95]

https://www.uhnd.com/recruiting/201...e-football-monster-202021-recruiting-classes/

Really solid morning read giving some more in depth takes on the next two recruiting classes for us. Gives a lot of promise for where this program is finally going. I was actually thinking about this over the weekend. We are finally where we want to be as a program and it has taken 10 years for BK. 10 years to undo all the garbage from Boob Davie to CW, and let me tell ya folks our program was undone. It took less than 10 years to destroy this program and now it has finally been rebuilt to where it needs to be. Brian Kelly is to thank for that, he has stuck it out for 10 years and continues to prove the doubters wrong. There is no other coach in the country who could have done what BK has and it is not over yet! From renovations of the stadium, practice field and indoor facilities to keeping the nations highest graduation rating while still finishing top 5 in players drafted to the NFL Kelly has done a spectacular job.

See what happens when a program stays patient and sticks with a coach? I am grateful for what BK has brought to this program and do not take it for granted. We are lucky to have such a solid coach who understands this University, not everyone can do it! Hope this gets you as excited as I am!

Go Irish!

 

[mirer03]

https://www.uhnd.com/recruiting/201...e-football-monster-202021-recruiting-classes/

Really solid morning read giving some more in depth takes on the next two recruiting classes for us. Gives a lot of promise for where this program is finally going. I was actually thinking about this over the weekend. We are finally where we want to be as a program and it has taken 10 years for BK. 10 years to undo all the garbage from Boob Davie to CW, and let me tell ya folks our program was undone. It took less than 10 years to destroy this program and now it has finally been rebuilt to where it needs to be. Brian Kelly is to thank for that, he has stuck it out for 10 years and continues to prove the doubters wrong. There is no other coach in the country who could have done what BK has and it is not over yet! From renovations of the stadium, practice field and indoor facilities to keeping the nations highest graduation rating while still finishing top 5 in players drafted to the NFL Kelly has done a spectacular job.

See what happens when a program stays patient and sticks with a coach? I am grateful for what BK has brought to this program and do not take it for granted. We are lucky to have such a solid coach who understands this University, not everyone can do it! Hope this gets you as excited as I am!

Go Irish!

Well said

 

[nemeth#5]

Well said.... while the big wins have often avoided him, and we have no NC.... he has done a great job not only rebuilding the program, but bringing it to the present day.

I want a NC as bad as anyone, but I cannot stand people who fail to realize what BK has done here in the last decade..... it is if people forgot just how bad we were before he was here.

 

[NewMember21]

Well said.... while the big wins have often avoided him, and we have no NC.... he has done a great job not only rebuilding the program, but bringing it to the present day.

I want a NC as bad as anyone, but I cannot stand people who fail to realize what BK has done here in the last decade..... it is if people forgot just how bad we were before he was here.

The thing those people don't realize is that, barring a generational dual-threat QB, an NC is not a 1-year journey anymore.

I would say that most teams need 5-10 years to build the credibility, roster depth and coaching that's needed to truly win an NC.

Even then, breaking through and seizing the NC requires catching lightening in a bottle, in terms of the right roster with the right QB and right coaching staff.

Just look at Clemson & Deshaun Watson
Or Florida State & Jameis Winston
Or Ohio State and the lightening Urban Meyer caught (after Tressell)
etc.

If you want an NC, then we need 5+ more years of what Kelly is doing, right now.

 

[nemeth#5]

The thing those people don't realize is that, barring a generational dual-threat QB, an NC is not a 1-year journey anymore.

I would say that most teams need 5-10 years to build the credibility, roster depth and coaching that's needed to truly win an NC.

Even then, breaking through and seizing the NC requires catching lightening in a bottle, in terms of the right roster with the right QB and right coaching staff.

Just look at Clemson & Deshaun Watson
Or Florida State & Jameis Winston
Or Ohio State and the lightening Urban Meyer caught (after Tressell)
etc.

If you want an NC, then we need 5+ more years of what Kelly is doing, right now.

I agree 100%..... which is why I cant help but think negatively of anyone who thinks it is time to look for a new HC.... especially anyone who is unproven and would be a backward hire. It just blows my mind to see anyone talking negatively about BK lol.....

 

[chaseball]

This time of year there's always high-fives going around in regards to NDs recruiting classes. ND secures most of their talent prior to the season starting and then slide as most of the top 100 or so prospects (that they aren't in play for) start to make their commitments as we approach national signing day.

ND isn't really in play with any big time prospects right now and will probably finish the 2020 class somewhere in the #11-#13 range by NSD. They missed on too many big prospects earlier in the cycle that could have been needle moving this class.

ND signed the #16 class last year, and even if they hold on to a #10 class in 2020 (best case scenario) their 2 year average will be #13. Which is right smack dab in the middle of BKs recruiting average over his tenure. In other words: there's no needle being moved on the talent level.

It is waay too early to be speculating on the 2021 class but around this time of year, ND usually is somewhere in the top 5.

Yes ND has addressed its need for higher upside skill players but now they are struggling to bring in the same level of defensive talent across the board that they did in 2016 & 2017.

Also, Brian Kelly is 10 years into his tenure. The idea that you need 5/10/15+ years in order to build a national title contender just doesn't hold up to history.

Saban won his NC within 1-3 years at Alabama, Carroll in three years at USC, same with Urban Meyer at his previous stops, and the same with Jimbo Fisher at FSU (it took him 4 years). Dabo Swinney is a major exception to the rule. It took him 9 years to win his first national title, but Clemson was a bottom feeding P5 school with nowhere near the resources, talent, etc. that ND had at the time Brian Kelly took over.

You guys have some major blue & gold colored glasses on clouding any ability to be objective about where ND stands in the current landscape of college football.

ND (under Brian Kelly) is a mid teens football program, that recruits mid teens talent, that produces mid teens results, that is benefiting from a really mediocre schedule in recent years, and a ton of really good injury luck in 2018.

 

[NewMember21]

This time of year there's always high-fives going around in regards to NDs recruiting classes. ND secures most of their talent prior to the season starting and then slide as most of the top 100 or so prospects (that they aren't in play for) start to make their commitments as we approach national signing day.

ND isn't really in play with any big time prospects right now and will probably finish the 2020 class somewhere in the #11-#13 range by NSD. They missed on too many big time prospects earlier in the cycle that could have been needle moving this class.

ND signed the #16 class last year, and even if they hold on to a #10 finish (best case scenario) in 2020 that 2 year average is 13. Which is right smack dab in the middle of BKs recruiting average over his tenure. In other words: there's no needle being moved on the talent level.

It is waay too early to be speculating on the 2021 class but around this time of year, ND usually is somewhere in the top 5.

Yes ND has addressed its need for higher upside skill players but now they are struggling to bring in the same level of defensive talent across the board that they did in 2016 & 2017.

Also, Brian Kelly is 10 years into his tenure. The idea that you need 5/10/15+ years in order to build a national title contender just doesn't hold up to history.

Saban won his NC within 1-3 years at Alabama, same with Urban Meyer at his previous stops, and the same with Jimbo Fisher at FSU (it took him 4 years). Dabo Swinney is a major exception to the rule. It took him 9 years to win his first national title, but Clemson was a bottom feeding P5 school with nowhere near the resources, talent, etc. that ND had at the time Brian Kelly took over.

You guys have some major blue & gold colored glasses on clouding any ability to be objective about where ND stands in the current landscape of college football.

ND (under Brian Kelly) is a mid teens football program, that recruits mid teens talent, that produces mid teens results, that is benefiting from a really mediocre schedule in recent years, and a ton of really good injury luck in 2018.

As always, you show your ignorance.

Many of ND's recent classes are ranked low due to small class size, not low quality. That is due to us retaining most of our players instead of them leaving in droves via "The Portal" or jumping to the NFL early.

That's a really, really good thing.

Furthermore, you're simply wrong about what it takes to build a program up from a total laughing stock (Willingham/Weis) to a legit NC contender.

10+ years is the reality there.

ND just needs Kelly to continue doing what he has been doing....winning tons of football games, recruiting really well, and retaining/developing that talent.

Best way for ND to win an NC in modern football is to stay on exactly the track that we're already on!

 

[IrishFforida]

This time of year there's always high-fives going around in regards to NDs recruiting classes. ND secures most of their talent prior to the season starting and then slide as most of the top 100 or so prospects (that they aren't in play for) start to make their commitments as we approach national signing day.

ND isn't really in play with any big time prospects right now and will probably finish the 2020 class somewhere in the #11-#13 range by NSD. They missed on too many big prospects earlier in the cycle that could have been needle moving this class.

ND signed the #16 class last year, and even if they hold on to a #10 class in 2020 (best case scenario) their 2 year average will be #13. Which is right smack dab in the middle of BKs recruiting average over his tenure. In other words: there's no needle being moved on the talent level.

It is waay too early to be speculating on the 2021 class but around this time of year, ND usually is somewhere in the top 5.

Yes ND has addressed its need for higher upside skill players but now they are struggling to bring in the same level of defensive talent across the board that they did in 2016 & 2017.

Also, Brian Kelly is 10 years into his tenure. The idea that you need 5/10/15+ years in order to build a national title contender just doesn't hold up to history.

Saban won his NC within 1-3 years at Alabama, Carroll in three years at USC, same with Urban Meyer at his previous stops, and the same with Jimbo Fisher at FSU (it took him 4 years). Dabo Swinney is a major exception to the rule. It took him 9 years to win his first national title, but Clemson was a bottom feeding P5 school with nowhere near the resources, talent, etc. that ND had at the time Brian Kelly took over.

You guys have some major blue & gold colored glasses on clouding any ability to be objective about where ND stands in the current landscape of college football.

ND (under Brian Kelly) is a mid teens football program, that recruits mid teens talent, that produces mid teens results, that is benefiting from a really mediocre schedule in recent years, and a ton of really good injury luck in 2018.

***YAWN***

 

[Catholicfan95]

This time of year there's always high-fives going around in regards to NDs recruiting classes. ND secures most of their talent prior to the season starting and then slide as most of the top 100 or so prospects (that they aren't in play for) start to make their commitments as we approach national signing day.

ND isn't really in play with any big time prospects right now and will probably finish the 2020 class somewhere in the #11-#13 range by NSD. They missed on too many big time prospects earlier in the cycle that could have been needle moving this class.

ND signed the #16 class last year, and even if they hold on to a #10 finish (best case scenario) in 2020 that 2 year average is 13. Which is right smack dab in the middle of BKs recruiting average over his tenure. In other words: there's no needle being moved on the talent level.

It is waay too early to be speculating on the 2021 class but around this time of year, ND usually is somewhere in the top 5.

Yes ND has addressed its need for higher upside skill players but now they are struggling to bring in the same level of defensive talent across the board that they did in 2016 & 2017.

Also, Brian Kelly is 10 years into his tenure. The idea that you need 5/10/15+ years in order to build a national title contender just doesn't hold up to history.

Saban won his NC within 1-3 years at Alabama, same with Urban Meyer at his previous stops, and the same with Jimbo Fisher at FSU (it took him 4 years). Dabo Swinney is a major exception to the rule. It took him 9 years to win his first national title, but Clemson was a bottom feeding P5 school with nowhere near the resources, talent, etc. that ND had at the time Brian Kelly took over.

You guys have some major blue & gold colored glasses on clouding any ability to be objective about where ND stands in the current landscape of college football.

ND (under Brian Kelly) is a mid teens football program, that recruits mid teens talent, that produces mid teens results, that is benefiting from a really mediocre schedule in recent years, and a ton of really good injury luck in 2018.

Your broad strokes of criticism are once again some of the most underdeveloped I have seen on here. Can you answer this question, where does ND rank when it comes to putting guys into the NFL? Do you think that maybe that is a better way to gauge a programs talent vs when they come out of high school? I think so.

Your points of Saban and Myer are moot, neither of those coaches inherited a program like ND. Sometimes I wonder why I even waste my time pointing out things to you. You have zero football knowledge. You do not know what Notre Dame is as a University and you just do not see that it is not just about winning championship or games, it is about doing it a certain way and that takes time. No other program in the country could win with the standard we have at this school, and you know what my friend there are a lot of us that like it that way. It takes time to build a culture to pave the way and I am sorry that ND does not live up to your standards but we continue to show college football that we can win on the field and in the classroom.

Continuing to insinuate that people on here are blinded because they are fans is not true. Sure people can sometimes not see things for what they are, but I see people on here that have way more IQ about what is going on compared to what you bring to the table.

 

[chaseball]

As always, you show your ignorance.

Many of ND's recent classes are ranked low due to small class size, not low quality. That is due to us retaining most of our players instead of them leaving in droves via "The Portal" or jumping to the NFL early.

That's a really, really good thing.

Furthermore, you're simply wrong about what it takes to build a program up from a total laughing stock (Willingham/Weis) to a legit NC contender.

10+ years is the reality there.

ND just needs Kelly to continue doing what he has been doing....winning tons of football games, recruiting really well, and retaining/developing that talent.

Best way for ND to win an NC in modern football is to stay on exactly the track that we're already on!

Will you stop bombastically talking about things you have no clue about? It really takes away from the credibility of the other points that you try to make. 247 uses a class ranking formula that neutralizes for class-size.

247 Composite Formula Explanation

• In order to create the most comprehensive Team Recruiting Ranking without any notion of bias, 247Sports Team Recruiting Ranking is solely based on the 247Sports Composite Rating.
• Each recruit is weighted in the rankings according to a GAUSSIAN DISTRIBUTION FORMULA (a bell curve), where a team's best recruit is worth the most points. You can think of a team's point score as being the sum of ratings of all the team's commits where the best recruit is worth 100% of his rating value, the second best recruit is worth nearly 100% of his rating value, down to the last recruit who is worth a small fraction of his rating value. This formula ensures that all commits contribute at least some value to the team's score without heavily rewarding teams that have several more commitments than others.
• Readers familiar with the Gaussian distribution formula will note that we use a varying value for σ based on the standard deviation for the total number of commits between schools for the given sport. This STANDARD DEVIATION creates a bell curve with an inflection point near the average number of players recruited per team.
• Below is a graphical representation of how our formula works. You can see that the area under the curve gets smaller both as the rating for a commit decreases and as the number of total commits for a school increases. The y-axis in this graph represents the percentage weight of the score that gets applied to an overall team ranking.

You have to visit the site to see the bell curve, but I'd urge anybody curious to click over and check it out as it really helps to demonstrate the point.
https://247sports.com/Season/2020-Football/CompositeTeamRankings/ (click the blue "I" at top right of page)

 

[Catholicfan95]

Will you stop bombastically talking about things you have no clue about? It really takes away from the credibility of the other points that you try to make. 247 uses a class ranking formula that neutralizes for class-size.

247 Composite Formula Explanation

• In order to create the most comprehensive Team Recruiting Ranking without any notion of bias, 247Sports Team Recruiting Ranking is solely based on the 247Sports Composite Rating.
• Each recruit is weighted in the rankings according to a GAUSSIAN DISTRIBUTION FORMULA (a bell curve), where a team's best recruit is worth the most points. You can think of a team's point score as being the sum of ratings of all the team's commits where the best recruit is worth 100% of his rating value, the second best recruit is worth nearly 100% of his rating value, down to the last recruit who is worth a small fraction of his rating value. This formula ensures that all commits contribute at least some value to the team's score without heavily rewarding teams that have several more commitments than others.
• Readers familiar with the Gaussian distribution formula will note that we use a varying value for σ based on the standard deviation for the total number of commits between schools for the given sport. This STANDARD DEVIATION creates a bell curve with an inflection point near the average number of players recruited per team.
• Below is a graphical representation of how our formula works. You can see that the area under the curve gets smaller both as the rating for a commit decreases and as the number of total commits for a school increases. The y-axis in this graph represents the percentage weight of the score that gets applied to an overall team ranking.

You have to visit the site to see the bell curve, but I'd urge anybody curious to click over and check it out as it really helps to demonstrate the point.
https://247sports.com/Season/2020-Football/CompositeTeamRankings/ (click the blue "I" at top right of page)

Why does this at all matter? This does nothing for me or your argument. I am aware of how recruiting works. Was there something in the last post to suggest I dont know how this works? I just do not see how this plays in to the point you are trying to make.

Ok, ND is ranked outside of the top 15 or whatever during the BK era, but you know what kinda crushes that stat, the amount of talent that he has put into the NFL.

 

[NewMember21]

Will you stop bombastically talking about things you have no clue about? It really takes away from the credibility of the other points that you try to make. 247 uses a class ranking formula that neutralizes for class-size.

247 Composite Formula Explanation

• In order to create the most comprehensive Team Recruiting Ranking without any notion of bias, 247Sports Team Recruiting Ranking is solely based on the 247Sports Composite Rating.
• Each recruit is weighted in the rankings according to a GAUSSIAN DISTRIBUTION FORMULA (a bell curve), where a team's best recruit is worth the most points. You can think of a team's point score as being the sum of ratings of all the team's commits where the best recruit is worth 100% of his rating value, the second best recruit is worth nearly 100% of his rating value, down to the last recruit who is worth a small fraction of his rating value. This formula ensures that all commits contribute at least some value to the team's score without heavily rewarding teams that have several more commitments than others.
• Readers familiar with the Gaussian distribution formula will note that we use a varying value for σ based on the standard deviation for the total number of commits between schools for the given sport. This STANDARD DEVIATION creates a bell curve with an inflection point near the average number of players recruited per team.
• Below is a graphical representation of how our formula works. You can see that the area under the curve gets smaller both as the rating for a commit decreases and as the number of total commits for a school increases. The y-axis in this graph represents the percentage weight of the score that gets applied to an overall team ranking.

You have to visit the site to see the bell curve, but I'd urge anybody curious to click over and check it out as it really helps to demonstrate the point.
https://247sports.com/Season/2020-Football/CompositeTeamRankings/ (click the blue "I" at top right of page)

First time ever reading about math?

That description quite literally says that the bigger the class, the higher the ranking....as literally all recruits are assigned a point value.

You would have been better off trying to argue for Rivals "class size neutralizer"....though you obviously would have been wrong there too.

Is there anything about recruiting that your not wrong about?
Anything at all??

 

[NewMember21]

Why does this at all matter? This does nothing for me or your argument. I am aware of how recruiting works. Was there something in the last post to suggest I dont know how this works? I just do not see how this plays in to the point you are trying to make.

Ok, ND is ranked outside of the top 15 or whatever during the BK era, but you know what kinda crushes that stat, the amount of talent that he has put into the NFL.

It doesn't make any sense at all.

@chaseball is trying to claim that wrighting the highest rated recruits more heavily that the lower rated ones completely removes the "ranking bias" towards larger classes.

But it does not.
It helps address it somewhat, the mathematical bias towards larger classes still exists even using that method, obviously.

Apparently @chaseball know nothing about math/statistics....in addition to knowing nothing about recruiting.

 

[chaseball]

It doesn't make any sense at all.

@chaseball is trying to claim that wrighting the highest rated recruits more heavily that the lower rated ones completely removes the "ranking bias" towards larger classes.

But it does not.
It helps address it somewhat, the mathematical bias towards larger classes still exists even using that method, obviously.

Apparently @chaseball know nothing about math/statistics....in addition to knowing nothing about recruiting.

After about the 15th ranked commit the weight the remaining commits have on the class ranking is so small that it's negligible. Did you even look at the graph that I linked?

 

[chaseball]

Why does this at all matter? This does nothing for me or your argument. I am aware of how recruiting works. Was there something in the last post to suggest I dont know how this works? I just do not see how this plays in to the point you are trying to make.

Ok, ND is ranked outside of the top 15 or whatever during the BK era, but you know what kinda crushes that stat, the amount of talent that he has put into the NFL.

Did you not see who I quoted? I was responding to a point another poster was making.

 

[NewMember21]

Did you not see who I quoted? I was responding to a point another poster was making.

This is literally a LIE....either that, or you're just a moron.

Do you know nothing about math, at all?

For example, in Ohio State's current class the recruits "beyond 15th" that you just called negligible are about equal in value (total) as Latham Ransom....the borderline 5* Safety that ND coveted.

And they're not even done adding more "negligble value" recruits yet!!

Are you now claiming that borderline 5*'s have negligible value??

 

[NewMember21]

Did you not see who I quoted? I was responding to a point another poster was making.

To further illustrate, if you added the "negligible value" that Ohio State is getting for it's larger class to ND's class......

We'd move ahead of Georgia in the class rankings, and would be nipping at the #5 Overall Class.

Man, you really do suck at math.........

 

[NewMember21]

After about the 15th ranked commit the weight the remaining commits have on the class ranking is so small that it's negligible. Did you even look at the graph that I linked?

 

[mirer03]

This time of year there's always high-fives going around in regards to NDs recruiting classes. ND secures most of their talent prior to the season starting and then slide as most of the top 100 or so prospects (that they aren't in play for) start to make their commitments as we approach national signing day.

ND isn't really in play with any big time prospects right now and will probably finish the 2020 class somewhere in the #11-#13 range by NSD. They missed on too many big prospects earlier in the cycle that could have been needle moving this class.

ND signed the #16 class last year, and even if they hold on to a #10 class in 2020 (best case scenario) their 2 year average will be #13. Which is right smack dab in the middle of BKs recruiting average over his tenure. In other words: there's no needle being moved on the talent level.

It is waay too early to be speculating on the 2021 class but around this time of year, ND usually is somewhere in the top 5.

Yes ND has addressed its need for higher upside skill players but now they are struggling to bring in the same level of defensive talent across the board that they did in 2016 & 2017.

Also, Brian Kelly is 10 years into his tenure. The idea that you need 5/10/15+ years in order to build a national title contender just doesn't hold up to history.

Saban won his NC within 1-3 years at Alabama, Carroll in three years at USC, same with Urban Meyer at his previous stops, and the same with Jimbo Fisher at FSU (it took him 4 years). Dabo Swinney is a major exception to the rule. It took him 9 years to win his first national title, but Clemson was a bottom feeding P5 school with nowhere near the resources, talent, etc. that ND had at the time Brian Kelly took over.

You guys have some major blue & gold colored glasses on clouding any ability to be objective about where ND stands in the current landscape of college football.

ND (under Brian Kelly) is a mid teens football program, that recruits mid teens talent, that produces mid teens results, that is benefiting from a really mediocre schedule in recent years, and a ton of really good injury luck in 2018.

And you keep spouting stats no one cares about...

 

[chaseball]

This is literally a LIE....either that, or you're just a moron.

Do you know nothing about math, at all?

For example, in Ohio State's current class the recruits "beyond 15th" that you just called negligible are about equal in value (total) as Latham Ransom....the borderline 5* Safety that ND coveted.

And they're not even done adding more "negligble value" recruits yet!!

Are you now claiming that borderline 5*'s have negligible value??

OSU is an extreme case, with 7 more commits than ND right now, which won't be true come national signing day. And OSUs average recruit rating is so high that even the bottom third of their class (recruits ranked from 16-24) can still make a dent in their overall class ranking.

In nearly every other case the very large majority of a class ranking comes from the top ~15 or so commits in a class. And by the time national signing day comes around, there won't be as wide a gap between how many commits are signed between different programs.

Also, ND is currently ranked 15th in 247s composite team talent ranking which ranks every 85 man roster in college football. So even if I give you the argument that NDs smaller classes are bringing down their annual recruiting ranking (which there's no evidence of) ... they are still ranked 15th in overall talent.

 

[NewMember21]

OSU is an extreme case, with 9 more commits than ND right now, which won't be true come national signing day. And OSUs average recruit rating is so high that even the bottom third of their class (recruits ranked from 16-24) can still make a dent in their overall class ranking.

In nearly every other case the very large majority of a class ranking comes from the top ~15 or so commits in a class. And by the time national signing day comes around, there won't be as wide a gap between how many commits are signed between different programs.

Also, ND is currently ranked 15th in 247s composite team talent ranking which ranks every 85 man roster in college football. So even if NDs smaller classes are bringing down their annual recruiting ranking, when the overall 85 man roster is benchmarked vs other teams in the country, they are still coming in at 15th.

Wow.....you really really do SUCK at math.

Let's take this point by point.

(1) You just admitted that you're WRONG!! Great. The higher-ranked large classes are absolutely getting a huge bump when compared to ND's smaller classes, making your use of "recruiting rankings" even more useless than normal.

So we've already god you admitting you're whole diatribes are worthless!!

(2) ND is only taking 19-20 kids, so Ohio State 25+ man classes are going to remain much larger.

So you're wrong again!!

(3) The "composite team talent" index is YET ANOTHER MORONIC attempt by you, as it does nothing to account for the development of the player in the program.

This index treats a brand new Frosh 4* exactly the same as a fully developed Senior 4*.

This again GREATLY distorts the ranking towards teams that are constantly churning their rosters rather than developing their player.....and thus obviousl underrates teams like ND.

0-3 Chase..........math just your friend!!

 

[NewMember21]

OSU is an extreme case

I just want to highlight this......

"Sure, everything I've posted is mathematically WRONG...but let just doubledown on how math shouldn't really be used.....bc I don't understand it!"
- @chaseball

And this is the moron who keep trying to reference a stat/metric, with absolutely no context....in his contest attempts to argue that on-field results don't matter.

 

[lyonhawk]

OSU is an extreme case, with 7 more commits than ND right now, which won't be true come national signing day. And OSUs average recruit rating is so high that even the bottom third of their class (recruits ranked from 16-24) can still make a dent in their overall class ranking.

In nearly every other case the very large majority of a class ranking comes from the top ~15 or so commits in a class. And by the time national signing day comes around, there won't be as wide a gap between how many commits are signed between different programs.

Also, ND is currently ranked 15th in 247s composite team talent ranking which ranks every 85 man roster in college football. So even if I give you the argument that NDs smaller classes are bringing down their annual recruiting ranking (which there's no evidence of) ... they are still ranked 15th in overall talent.

That ranking is also based on where they were in high school.

Julian Okwara - 301
Khalid Kareem - 196
Alohi Gilman - unranked
Wu - 456
MTA - 472
Drew White - 977
Kurt Hinish - 519
Asmar Bilal - 194
Troy Pride - 249
Tariq Bracy - 434

According to the “experts” our D should be downright awful.

 

[chaseball]

I'm all for a constructive honest debate in good faith, but your use of hyperbole, looseness with facts, and just overall arrogance makes that impossible, and it also just rubs me the wrong way.

@NewMember21 welcome back to my ignore list.

 

[chaseball]

That ranking is also based on where they were in high school.

Julian Okwara - 301
Khalid Kareem - 196
Alohi Gilman - unranked
Wu - 456
MTA - 472
Drew White - 977
Kurt Hinish - 519
Asmar Bilal - 194
Troy Pride - 249
Tariq Bracy - 434

According to the “experts” our D should be downright awful.

You are pointing out about ~10 or so players that are exceptions to the rule. The other 80 or so percent of the roster falls much closer in line with their prospect profile.

Also, I don't believe NDs composite overall talent ranking tells the whole story because I think Brian Kelly is one of the best coaches in the country at developing and maximizing his talent. He just needs to find a way to recruit much better so that he's not starting so far back from the rest of the competition (the top 2-3 programs in each P5 conference).

 

[NewMember21]

I'm all for a constructive honest debate in good faith, but your use of hyperbole, looseness with facts, and just overall arrogance makes that impossible, and it also just rubs me the wrong way.

@NewMember21 welcome back to my ignore list.

Someone show literal math to @chaseball ...................... and @chaseball turns tail and runs.

Like the moronic coward that he obvious is.

 

[NewMember21]

You are pointing out about ~10 or so players that are exceptions to the rule. The other 80 or so percent of the roster falls much closer in line with their prospect profile.

Also, I don't believe NDs composite overall talent ranking tells the whole story because I think Brian Kelly is one of the best coaches in the country at developing and maximizing his talent. He just needs to find a way to recruit much better so that he's not starting so far back from the rest of the competition (the top 2-3 programs in each P5 conference).

That ranking is also based on where they were in high school.

Julian Okwara - 301
Khalid Kareem - 196
Alohi Gilman - unranked
Wu - 456
MTA - 472
Drew White - 977
Kurt Hinish - 519
Asmar Bilal - 194
Troy Pride - 249
Tariq Bracy - 434

According to the “experts” our D should be downright awful.

The reality that @chaseball is much to stupid to consider is........years of development matter.

A True Frosh version of Okwara =/= Senior version of Okwara.

A metric that does not even try to account for how long players have program, let alone how much they have played.........is worthless.

But @chaseball is obviously obcessed with recruiting rankings, and thus cannot admit that his endless diatribes on the subject have not only be WRONG....they've been completely moronic.

 

[lyonhawk]

You are pointing out about ~10 or so players that are exceptions to the rule. The other 80 or so percent of the roster falls much closer in line with their prospect profile.

Also, I don't believe NDs composite overall talent ranking tells the whole story because I think Brian Kelly is one of the best coaches in the country at developing and maximizing his talent. He just needs to find a way to recruit much better so that he's not starting so far back from the rest of the competition (the top 2-3 programs in each P5 conference).

That handful of exceptions is our entire starting defense.

 

[lyonhawk]

That handful of exceptions is our entire starting defense.

Actually, I left out Jalen Elliott - 476.

 

[chaseball]

Actually, I left out Jalen Elliott - 476.

There's also probably ~10 high rated players on the roster that disappointed that never amounted to much to balance things out and then the large majority of players on the 85 man roster who simply performed to their prospect profile.

I don't know what point you are trying to make other than another variation of "recruiting ratings don't mean much" but that is a debate that has been long over now. Or that Brian Kelly is such a god at developing talent he can compete with players ranked in the ~500s on his two deep vs teams full of top ~100 players at the same positions (which just isn't realistic).

ND has done an excellent job finding some hidden gems on defense, but there's a reason the defense is currently ranked 21st in efficiency. If there were players with more upside on that side of the ball ND would be winning their games in more dominant fashion and be in much better position to compete for national titles than they currently are.

 

[NewMember21]

There's also probably ~10 high rated players on the roster that disappointed that never amounted to much to balance things out and then the large majority of players on the 85 man roster who simply performed to their prospect profile.

I don't know what point you are trying to make other than another variation of "recruiting ratings don't mean much" but that is a debate that has been long over now. Or that Brian Kelly is such a god at developing talent he can compete with players ranked in the ~500s on his two deep vs teams full of top ~100 players at the same positions (which just isn't realistic).

ND has done an excellent job finding some hidden gems on defense, but there's a reason the defense is currently ranked 21st in efficiency. If there were players with more upside on that side of the ball ND would be winning their games in more dominant fashion and be in much better position to compete for national titles than they currently are.

As always, you completely misunderstand recruiting basics.

Rankings are almost WORTHLESS in the micro (individual recruits). They're a terrible way to evaluate an individual, known player. There are tons and tons of examples of low-ranked recruits that people KNEW were going to be good:

• Zach Martin
• Nick Martin
• Mike McGlinchey
• Julian Love
• Julian Okwara
• Liam Eichenberg
• Josh Adams
• Troy Pride
• CJ Prosise
• Jarrett Patterson
• Myron Tagaviola-Amosa
• Jalen Elliott
• etc.

Recruiting rankings are ONLY useful for macro-level evaluation....where their mediocre correlation to play quality can be helpful to identify trends.

@chaseball simply does not understand how the statistical concept of "Correlation" actually works.

It's one of the many reasons that he just SUCKS at math.

 

[DublinND]

That ranking is also based on where they were in high school.

Julian Okwara - 301
Khalid Kareem - 196
Alohi Gilman - unranked
Wu - 456
MTA - 472
Drew White - 977
Kurt Hinish - 519
Asmar Bilal - 194
Troy Pride - 249
Tariq Bracy - 434

According to the “experts” our D should be downright awful.

2018 record 12-1 Final Ranking 5th [ CFB playoffs]
2019 current record 5-1 current ranking 8th
3 wins in a row vs USC
2021 currently ranked #1 on Rivals
They sure seem to be doing pretty well based on average talent and sub par recruiting results
So what's the problem ?

 

[lyonhawk]

2018 record 12-1 Final Ranking 5th [ CFB playoffs]
2019 current record 5-1 current ranking 8th
3 wins in a row vs USC
2021 currently ranked #1 on Rivals
They sure seem to be doing pretty well based on average talent and sub par recruiting results
So what's the problem ?

This was in response to the "talent level ranking" post above. Those are based on rankings coming out of high school, not a reranked class based on what actually happened. Then there's the "Tyler Eifert is an exception, Zack Martin is an exception, etc." so it looks like literally our entire starting defense is an exception. So maybe, we just got REALLY lucky, or maybe the coaching staff is better at talent evaluation than recruitniks.

 

[DublinND]

This was in response to the "talent level ranking" post above. Those are based on rankings coming out of high school, not a reranked class based on what actually happened. Then there's the "Tyler Eifert is an exception, Zack Martin is an exception, etc." so it looks like literally our entire starting defense is an exception. So maybe, we just got REALLY lucky, or maybe the coaching staff is better at talent evaluation than recruitniks.

Who cares about recruiting rankings when the games begin
Of course there is a correlation. See OSU Bama and Georgia et al.
But you can also look at Wisconsin which has become a consistent top 10 program.
Nowhere near ND in recruiting rankings.
Generally in the 30s.
Player development, under radar recruits , committment to a style of play. Dominate running game with very solid D.
Considering the challenges ND faces in recruiting imo ND has recruited pretty well and is trending up.
Admissions
Academic requirements. Must play school in addition to football
No cash .pay to play
Strict disciplinary code compared to other power programs
Cold weather in Northern Indiana
With all that ND is ranked 8th and finished last yr at #5.
A lot of traditional power programs would be happy to trade places with ND in a heartbeat.
To me there's way more right about the current state of the ND football program than wrong.
I think we should have a balanced perspective and as fans be enjoying the high level of football the program has delivered over the past several years. And not continually lament why cant ND recruit like Alabama Georgia Clemson and OSU. Bc ND is not like those schools in how it views its football program. And never will be. Simple

 

[Tru2Irish]

As always, you show your ignorance.

Many of ND's recent classes are ranked low due to small class size, not low quality. That is due to us retaining most of our players instead of them leaving in droves via "The Portal" or jumping to the NFL early.

That's a really, really good thing.

Furthermore, you're simply wrong about what it takes to build a program up from a total laughing stock (Willingham/Weis) to a legit NC contender.

10+ years is the reality there.

ND just needs Kelly to continue doing what he has been doing....winning tons of football games, recruiting really well, and retaining/developing that talent.

Best way for ND to win an NC in modern football is to stay on exactly the track that we're already on!

The one area of recruiting that ND is not achieving in is the CB area. ND has let too many great CB's slip through without sealing the deal. I don't know if Lyght is just that weak at recruiting or what. He seems to be the achilles heel at putting ND in top 5 area of recruiting. A change might be needed. Getting Lance made all the difference at RB. Just saying.

 

[Get Nasty]

Who cares about recruiting rankings when the games begin
Of course there is a correlation. See OSU Bama and Georgia et al.
But you can also look at Wisconsin which has become a consistent top 10 program.
Nowhere near ND in recruiting rankings.
Generally in the 30s.
Player development, under radar recruits , committment to a style of play. Dominate running game with very solid D.
Considering the challenges ND faces in recruiting imo ND has recruited pretty well and is trending up.
Admissions
Academic requirements. Must play school in addition to football
No cash .pay to play
Strict disciplinary code compared to other power programs
Cold weather in Northern Indiana
With all that ND is ranked 8th and finished last yr at #5.
A lot of traditional power programs would be happy to trade places with ND in a heartbeat.
To me there's way more right about the current state of the ND football program than wrong.
I think we should have a balanced perspective and as fans be enjoying the high level of football the program has delivered over the past several years. And not continually lament why cant ND recruit like Alabama Georgia Clemson and OSU. Bc ND is not like those schools in how it views its football program. And never will be. Simple

Wisconsin is not a good model if you want to win championships. It's a good model if you want to win games you should win.

 

[NewMember21]

The one area of recruiting that ND is not achieving in is the CB area. ND has let too many great CB's slip through without sealing the deal. I don't know if Lyght is just that weak at recruiting or what. He seems to be the achilles heel at putting ND in top 5 area of recruiting. A change might be needed. Getting Lance made all the difference at RB. Just saying.

ND needs to do a better job recruiting CB than they did in the 2020 class, no question. However, Bartleson is a kid that we wanted from the jump and was a priority recruit for us.

But you're off the mark about Lyght.
There are a lot of very public "rumors" that you should probably read up on, if you're going to comment about the DB coaching and recruiting situation.

Just saying.

 

[NewMember21]

2018 record 12-1 Final Ranking 5th [ CFB playoffs]
2019 current record 5-1 current ranking 8th
3 wins in a row vs USC
2021 currently ranked #1 on Rivals
They sure seem to be doing pretty well based on average talent and sub par recruiting results
So what's the problem ?

There isn't one.

@chaseball is just a moron who doesn't understand the first thing about recruiting, and gets his panties in a bunch whenever you expose his ignorance.

It's quite pathetic.

 

[DublinND]

Wisconsin is not a good model if you want to win championships. It's a good model if you want to win games you should win.

It is a good model . Unless being a top 10 program is bad. ND may never win another championship. Does that mean the Program stinks and the HC should be fired? Its a very uneven playing field. ND is trending towards being a legit playoff contender more yrs than not. And considering where the program has been over the past 20 years that's pretty darn good. Don't get the constant criticism. Glass is definitely half full

 

[jcswoopnh]

ND needs to do a better job recruiting CB than they did in the 2020 class, no question. However, Bartleson is a kid that we wanted from the jump and was a priority recruit for us.

But you're off the mark about Lyght.
There are a lot of very public "rumors" that you should probably read up on, if you're going to comment about the DB coaching and recruiting situation.

Just saying.

Am I correct in that Joseph is in charge of d-back recruiting and that he also got promoted over Lyght

ND needs to do a better job recruiting CB than they did in the 2020 class, no question. However, Bartleson is a kid that we wanted from the jump and was a priority recruit for us.

But you're off the mark about Lyght.
There are a lot of very public "rumors" that you should probably read up on, if you're going to comment about the DB coaching and recruiting situation.

Just saying.

Am I correct in stating that Joseph has been promoted over Lyght in game day decisions of D- backs as well as in recruiting? In recruiting strategy, Joseph prefers players who have certain measurables over players performances and Lyght prefers the opposite? I've been a Joseph fanboy but I'm not sure about his recruiting philosophy if I got it right. Wasn't that the issue with Coach D?