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Underwood to Michigan

chaseball
hoopsstar12 said:
If we didn't have the injuries to key players and Leonard wasn't annointed the starting QB, we clearly had an A+ lineup that would have competed for the title. No doubt about it. If we get into the playoffs we have an outside shot at winning. How would more NIL money solve the injury bug and the choice of QB by the coaches?
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I dont think ND lacks warm bodies even with the injuries. They are stacked with a ton of good players. What they lack are great players though. And the tier 1 and tier 2 teams are loaded with them.

More NIL budget would allow ND to replace some of these good players with elite difference makers at the high end.
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Underwood to Michigan

chaseball
IrishMike409 said:
I think this ND team can play with anyone in the country.

Depending on how the bracket shakes out, we can certainly get into Rd 2 or the Final 4. At that point, we gotta play well, and win the 60 minutes in front of us.

ND is big, physical, can run the ball, plays great D, and takes the ball away at a high clip......there is no team out there that I look at, and think "we can't beat them".
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I agree. Depending on how the bracket shakes out we might not see one of those top 5-6 teams until the last round or two. But what value is there in winning a couple of rounds of playoff games only to be a major underdog at some point and predictably get beat ?

I guess i'd rather watch ND win some playoff games than not, but at what point does ND do what it takes to bridge the gap so that they have more of a 50-50 chance instead of a 30-70 chance when they inevitably run into a higher tier team?

And for the record here is how i would 'tier' the playoff level teams through week 12 (using F+):

tier 1: OSU
tier 2: Oregon, Texas, Alabama, Ole Miss
tier 3: Georgia, PSU, Notre Dame
tier 4: Indiana, Miami, Tennessee, South Carolina, Texas A&M, Clemson

ND is a back end tier 3 team (and would be an underdog vs all the teams listed ahead of them to one degree or another).
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Underwood to Michigan

hoopsstar12
If we didn't have the injuries to key players and Leonard wasn't annointed the starting QB, we clearly had an A+ lineup that would have competed for the title. No doubt about it. If we get into the playoffs we have an outside shot at winning. How would more NIL money solve the injury bug and the choice of QB by the coaches?
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Army - CFP

P
chaseball said:
To add...

its important to note that these advanced ranking systems are terrible at evaluating triple option teams that use ball control and use their offense to play keep away as a defense so Army could be much better or worse .. conservatively they probably fall somewhere in the middle of both of these systems.
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And what if those SEC teams had to go to class and perform the other duties that the army cadets have to perform.

Do you think they could possibly field a seven man football team?
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Underwood to Michigan

I
chaseball said:
I think the best indicator of where a team stands in the hierarchy of college football is the F+ rankings. F+ sees Notre Dame as a back end top 10 team and considerably far away from the top five or so teams in the country which isn't too far away from how F+ has viewed Notre Dame going back to the inception of the F+ system.

What has Notre Dame won over the last 15 years being a back-end top 10 to top 15 team? They usually do well versus their ACC & G5 opponents and then get gobsmacked against anybody at the high end of college football (to the teams that are securing the type of prospects that Underwood represents)

Somehow I'm the only one able to make this connection in the entirety of the Notre Dame fan base

With that being said how do you think I think Notre Dame will do in the playoffs in terms of their upside/chances of winning national title?
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You never answered my question. How far does this ND team go. Please take a stance.

I think this ND team can play with anyone in the country.

Depending on how the bracket shakes out, we can certainly get into Rd 2 or the Final 4. At that point, we gotta play well, and win the 60 minutes in front of us.

ND is big, physical, can run the ball, plays great D, and takes the ball away at a high clip......there is no team out there that I look at, and think "we can't beat them".
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Army - CFP

chaseball
chaseball said:
Its funny because stats like FPI and F+ are built to answer this question. How would teams stack up if they were all playing the same level of competition?

According to F+ Army is ranked #27 in the country and would be 9th out of 16 SEC teams.

If we use FPI, Army is ranked #47, and they would be more like 13th of 16 SEC teams.
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To add...

its important to note that these advanced ranking systems are terrible at evaluating triple option teams that use ball control and use their offense to play keep away as a defense so Army could be much better or worse .. conservatively they probably fall somewhere in the middle of both of these systems.
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Fighting Kelly’s of LSU

G
chaseball said:
LSU still has the #6 class in the country to NDs #12 class. LSU still has 2 other 5-star commits in '25 to NDs zero 5-star commits. LSU still has a 30+ year tenured head coach in Brian Kelly with a long track record of producing above the baseline that his talent suggests that he should.

If I had to make a best guess at what program has a brighter future at this point, my money is still on LSU/Brian Kelly. If we're going to evaluate these two programs into the future, its important that we use a metric that adjusts for opponent quality though (like F+) because the schedules are vastly different in terms of the level of competition.
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ND is still 9 and 1 while LSU is still 6 and 4

ND has Marcus Freeman as the head coach while LSU still has Brian Kelly

Advantage ND
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Army - CFP

chaseball
Its funny because stats like FPI and F+ are built to answer this question. How would teams stack up if they were all playing the same level of competition?

According to F+ Army is ranked #27 in the country and would be 9th out of 16 SEC teams.

If we use FPI, Army is ranked #47, and they would be more like 13th of 16 SEC teams.

and this is like the best Army team this century.
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Army - CFP

S
jerbach said:
All this back and forth about Army beating anyone in the SEC reminds me of a t-shirt that I bought a while ago. The top front read "An Irishman walked out of a bar." Below that it read "Really, it could happen". The fact that it took Navy 20 something years to finally beat Notre Dame again means that anything could happen.
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If Army played a typical SEC schedule, you tell me, what would their conference record be? 5-3? 4-4? 3-5? 2-6?
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Army - CFP

jerbach
All this back and forth about Army beating anyone in the SEC reminds me of a t-shirt that I bought a while ago. The top front read "An Irishman walked out of a bar." Below that it read "Really, it could happen". The fact that it took Navy 20 something years to finally beat Notre Dame again means that anything could happen.
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Fighting Kelly’s of LSU

chaseball
mrwigglesby21 said:
How we feeling about this today Chase - ND trajectory looking much brighter than LSU or neaux? Yes or no is acceptable no reason to bloviate on such a simple question.
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LSU still has the #6 class in the country to NDs #12 class. LSU still has 2 other 5-star commits in '25 to NDs zero 5-star commits. LSU still has a 30+ year tenured head coach in Brian Kelly with a long track record of producing above the baseline that his talent suggests that he should.

If I had to make a best guess at what program has a brighter future at this point, my money is still on LSU/Brian Kelly. If we're going to evaluate these two programs into the future, its important that we use a metric that adjusts for opponent quality though (like F+) because the schedules are vastly different in terms of the level of competition.
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Fighting Kelly’s of LSU

mrwigglesby21
mrwigglesby21 said:
It screams Freeman is over-achieving while Kelly is underachieving. Full-stop.

ND trajectory looks much brighter than that of LSU.
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chaseball said:
I disagree with this. The recruiting/incoming talent at LSU in 2025 is in another tier entirely and this has to be taken into consideration.

ND and LSU have had similar productivity when you adjust for opponent quality and luck (F+) over the last several years and LSU has a better incoming class in 2025 (as presently constructed).

I think LSU/BK has more upside going forward based on the better talent they have incoming and how well you attract talent is part of the HCs job.
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How we feeling about this today Chase - ND trajectory looking much brighter than LSU or neaux? Yes or no is acceptable no reason to bloviate on such a simple question.
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