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Ole Miss & Georgia

tbonesays
banmate6 said:
I don't know the specific statistical models, but I do know ELO type models, like the ones used in chess or even ranking soccer nations.

Wins against higher ranked teams are weighted more heavily.

So if SEC teams start off higher ranked, sure, the winners tend to stay higher ranked.

Again, I'm just roughly considering how ELO models might bias the SEC in early rankings.
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Some models are biased early on because there is not enough data but drop it once the web of team games connects everybody.
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Football Place Your Bets voting: Notre Dame vs. Army

N
Tyler James said:
It's time for Game 11 of Place Your Bets for the 2024 season. We're making prop bets for CFP No. 6 Notre Dame's Shamrock Series game against Army.

ICYMI: Subscribers can compete individually in Place Your Bets for a chance to win free subscription months to Inside ND Sports. The top subscriber will get a year's subscription for free. The second-place subscriber will get six free months.

Instructions are included in the thread linked here and in the Google Form linked below.

@Eric Hansen and I share our weekly picks the Friday before every game this season. I will share the results next week in this thread and we’ll have an updated standings thread throughout the season.

Here are the Game 11 prop bets for Notre Dame-Army. Voting is open now and closes at kickoff on Saturday (7 p.m. EST on NBC).

• Over/Under 1.5 touchdowns for ND RB Jeremiyah Love
• Over/Under 3.5 catches for ND TE Mitchell Evans
• Will Notre Dame make a field goal?
• Over/Under 94.5 rushing yards for Army QB Bryson Daily
• Over/Under 4.5 completions for Army

This is premium content. Please subscribe to view.
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Why does it seem like "hosting a playoff game" is the ultimate goal at ND these days?

chaseball
Golson5 said:
No. There is absolutely not a clear top 5.

It also doesn't line up because we are ahead of Ole miss in team talent rankings. So incorrect
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Yes there's a clear top 5 in F+ rating (5 teams way out infront of the rest of the pack, with OSU WAAY out in front in a tier of their own)

These tier 1 teams (including Georgia who is at #6) also are way out in front in team talent composite as per 247. These are the teams that have 15, 20, 25+ more 5 star players and top 100 players on their 85 man roster than ND does (in another talent tier entirely). Ole Miss being the only exception--but Lane Kiffin is one of those coaches who has proven that he's able to produce elite F+ seasons with subpar talent (these coaches are far and few between). His roster is also loaded with TONS of transfers that are not comprehensively reflected in the 247 talent rankings.

Basically if ND faces any of these top 5 or 6 teams they'll be a major underdog and probably get ran over yet again. Even if they don't get ran over, the chances that they'll actually win these games is far too low for a team of NDs resources. And its embarrassing that year after year ND essentially heads into the regular season with the same program handicap unable to compete with the top teams in college football (but its disguised by their shit-tier schedule vs the ACC & G5) only to be exposed when they actually play a legit contender with a pulse.

Moreover, NDs 2025 recruiting class is down to #14 in the country with only like 1 or 2 players in the composite top 100 (and its yet another recruiting class without a single 5-star commit). The problems are GLARING AND OBVIOUS and apparently im the only one that gives a shit about it.

I've been making one variation of this post or another for nearly 1.5 decades now and even with the benefit of hindsight over that time, i'm still viewed by a segment of this board as a troll who is spouting nonsense to rile up the board. That's why I ask, how many more decades of hindsight do we need, with my take being proven correct over and over again, before I earn some semblance of the benefit of the doubt with these people?
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Football Place Your Bets voting: Notre Dame vs. Army

2581
Tyler James said:
It's time for Game 11 of Place Your Bets for the 2024 season. We're making prop bets for CFP No. 6 Notre Dame's Shamrock Series game against Army.

ICYMI: Subscribers can compete individually in Place Your Bets for a chance to win free subscription months to Inside ND Sports. The top subscriber will get a year's subscription for free. The second-place subscriber will get six free months.

Instructions are included in the thread linked here and in the Google Form linked below.

@Eric Hansen and I share our weekly picks the Friday before every game this season. I will share the results next week in this thread and we’ll have an updated standings thread throughout the season.

Here are the Game 11 prop bets for Notre Dame-Army. Voting is open now and closes at kickoff on Saturday (7 p.m. EST on NBC).

• Over/Under 1.5 touchdowns for ND RB Jeremiyah Love
• Over/Under 3.5 catches for ND TE Mitchell Evans
• Will Notre Dame make a field goal?
• Over/Under 94.5 rushing yards for Army QB Bryson Daily
• Over/Under 4.5 completions for Army

This is premium content. Please subscribe to view.
Click to expand...
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Ole Miss & Georgia

B
tbonesays said:
the computers love the SEC and I don't think they are biased.
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I don't know the specific statistical models, but I do know ELO type models, like the ones used in chess or even ranking soccer nations.

Wins against higher ranked teams are weighted more heavily.

So if SEC teams start off higher ranked, sure, the winners tend to stay higher ranked.

Again, I'm just roughly considering how ELO models might bias the SEC in early rankings.
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Ranked when you played? Or seasons end?

P
sjb75 said:
This means Navy is a quality top 25 win.

Which I would disagree with. It wasn’t then. It isn’t now.
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So when an undefeated team ranked # 2 loses to Notre Dame in game three of the season and their spectacular QB has a season ending injury on the last play of the game and they lose three more games, and end up ranked in the 40s at the end of the season, you think that our SOS should be based on the end of season rankings
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David Pollack Names College Football Team Outside the Top Five That Can Win it All

88ND

I can't say Pollack is wrong.

If we are forced to pass and play in a scoring fest we're in trouble.

If we can just move the sticks and keep a lead we're a tough out.

If #2 gets some late season chemistry with RL we have a decent shot
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Ranked when you played? Or seasons end?

raulduke_007
sjb75 said:
Frankly I agree. I watch a lot of CFB, and 6 seems a tad generous to me as well. I would go 8-9. That said, they’ll certainly get their shot to go as far as they can.
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Of course you think ND at #6 (really #8 with the auto bids) is generous because you're a USC troll and all you do is sh!tpost about ND on this board. It's a quite sad hobby you have & disturbing that a middle aged man like yourself indulges in it as frequently as you do. Get a better life sport.
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Northern Illinois

savvyandsassier
FightingIrish44 said:
Notre Dame has been mentioned about 20 times the last three weeks in the NIU games.

@savvyandsassier I thought NIU played very well in that game. They were the better team. Like the 95 yard TD pass. That was a great job by the QB delivering a perfect pass with Mills barreling down on him. Got everybody blocked up in the run game. The QB made other good throws. High level football IMO. They played good defense too.
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I don't know, I"m sure they did play well, for them. I just mean they didn't seem that formidable. This isn't some badass team that's going to tear up the MAC, and challenge for the G5 playoff spot or anything like that. The whole game was slow and labored, and even though we have a great defense, they were unthreatening on offense, and just slow and plodding overall. And sure enough, they got their little FG at the end to pull ahead and get the win. Good for them.

Bottom line, I suppose it was a letdown after the offseason-long buildup to the big game at Kyle Field. And our offense was finding itself, so it was just one of those things. And NIU stepped up. But to our great credit, we totally bounced back, took away the right lesson, and now pretty much are steamrolling our way into the playoff, with two legit opponents remaining, but we should be alright, we'll handle them. And I think it's possible to think of it as at least both a blessing and a curse. Obviously you don't want to lose to MAC teams, but we got our act together, and if MF really has been invoking it, what better way to totally motivate you for the rest of the season. So at the end of the day I'll take it. This has been a very good season. The games aren't competitive, and we are fairly dominant. I honestly think we could be a dark horse in the playoff. Knock on wood.
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Army Prediction Thread

S
FightingIrish44 said:
Trying to get some more action on it. There’s like three people that predict. Plus I wanted to throw out some thoughts.

What would you predict?

I’m not betting but I’d feel pretty good giving the 14.
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Army has little real CFB talent. But if they don’t turn the football over like Navy did, I see something like 34-13 ND.
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Army Prediction Thread

P
FightingIrish44 said:
ND 42
Army 17

ND shouldn’t have any problem moving the ball. Passing or running. I vote for mostly running while going up tempo to start the game. Short passing underneath.

I just don’t know what to make of the defense this week. I could see the D shutting Army down completely or getting pretty thoroughly run on. I don’t envy preparing for this offense. There’s plenty to learn from the Navy game. Hopefully the coaches have some sort of backup plan in case their base defense isn’t working.
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ND is a 14 point favorite
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