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Underwood to Michigan

That comparison is, well, something alright.

I’m not sure political reasons are the only reason here. I think paying high school kids millions of dollars is a great risk. Go through the rivals top 10 QBs over the last 10 years and tell me how many you believe were worth “Top 10 Money.” I bet it will be lower than you think.

Is Underwood worth $12M? Time will tell. The only thing I know is Michigan fans could care less if he is because a billionaire wrote the check, they’re just happy he’s on their team.

As for whether or not Bryce Underwood is worth it I think any business investment comes with a certain degree of risk. So Even though Underwood may not specifically return 10 million it might still be a really good business practice to risk 10 million at the chance that a prospect of his caliber fully reaches his potential and the organization strikes gold
 
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As for whether or not Bryce Underwood is worth it I think any business investment comes with a certain degree of risk. So Even though he may not be worth 10 million specifically it might still be a really good business practice to risk 10 million at the chance that a prospect of his caliber fully reaches his potential and the organization strikes gold
So many variables in today’s college football.

Dante Moore was “Underwood” 2 years ago. I wonder if UCLA is enjoying their investment? Or if Ohio State enjoyed their Quinn Ewers investment?

I’ll say this, it’s really easy to risk money that isn’t yours.

Below I’ve left a link for you to ND’s NIL collective. You can donate/send a message as to how the NIL should be run at ND, probably more productive than posting on this board.

https://www.fundfoundation.org/
 
So many variables in today’s college football.

Dante Moore was “Underwood” 2 years ago. I wonder if UCLA is enjoying their investment? Or if Ohio State enjoyed their Quinn Ewers investment?

I’ll say this, it’s really easy to risk money that isn’t yours.

Below I’ve left a link for you to ND’s NIL collective. You can donate/send a message as to how the NIL should be run at ND, probably more productive than posting on this board.

https://www.fundfoundation.org/
I've made some heavy edits to pretty much every post in this thread as a result of poor grammer due to voice transcription. So I would go back and reread my posts where I tried to clarify my point and delete some of the distracting parallels I was drawing

Anyway every business wants a 100% guarantee return on their investment but that's just not how the business world works.

I think what economist do is try to figure out what the fair market value is for a prospect with the built in risk of the investment being considered in that cost.

So like I said will Bryce Underwood specifically return the 10 million on Michigan's investment ? Who knows ...

But is it worth it to invest 10 million into a prospect of his caliber who may fully reach his potential? Yes very much so is my opinion
 
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I've made some heavy edits to pretty much every post in this thread as a result of poor grammer due to voice transcription. So I would go back and reread my posts where I tried to clarify my point and delete some of the distracting parallels I was drawing to Major League baseball.

Anyway every business wants a 100% guarantee return on their investment but that's just not how the business world works.

I think what economist do is try to figure out what the fair market value is for a prospect with the built in risk of the investment being considered in that cost.

So like I said will Bryce Underwood specifically return the 10 million on Michigan's investment ? Who knows ...

But is it worth it to invest 10 million into a prospect of his caliber who may fully reach his potential? Yes very much so is my opinion
Well currently you and Michigan’s NIL collective are the only ones that believe he’s worth that massive investment. Time will tell who is correct.
 
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Well currently you and Michigan’s NIL collective are the only ones that believe he’s worth that massive investment. Time will tell who is correct.
I think you are still overlooking the point I'm trying to make. Let's summarize:

$10 million relative to the revenues for a blue blood like Michigan is chump change.

More schools would be bidding beyond $10 million for number one consensus prospects if they weren't in an economic /political power struggle with the labor that's producing their wealth

Opportunistic football operations offices are looking ahead and seeing the inefficiency in the market for the cost of talent (Of course Notre Dame is not one of those colleges)

You can pay $10 million dollars to a prospect understanding that there's a good chance that prospect doesn't realize his potential (because most prospects don't realize their potential) and that you may not get $10 million back on that isolated/specific investment but still understand that the process of paying $10 million dollars for a prospect of Bryce Underwood's caliber is worth it

There are ways to quantify all of this and get a good understanding of what the fair market value is for a prospect of Bryce Underwood's caliber with the baked in risk involved in the cost. This is what economists and data analysts do for a living for businesses all across the country
 
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I applaud your confidence in your posts, truly. There’s no need to go into what economists and data analysts do on the board, no patronizing necessary.

This idea that “more schools would bid beyond 10M if it weren’t for the economic power struggle” is just a statement that you claim, with no actual data or source. It reminds me of the person who starts a claim off with “statistics say….” and never actually claim their source. I’m well aware of revenue sharing ideas and university’s reluctancy to share with the players.

That really doesn’t have much to do with paying a high school kid $10M. You see, recruiting in college is far more unpredictable than the NFL draft. So many more players, all different levels of competition, and the most difficult aspect of recruiting as a whole: will this player continue to improve and progress? Or, are they at their peak athletically. Thats a very difficult prediction for a 17/18 year old.

For instance the class of 2020 pro style QB’s on Rivals. #1 QB was DJ Uiagalelei, only other 5 star was QB #2 Harrison Bailey, no idea who he is today. 4 star CJ Stroud after them. So only 1 of these 3 is probably worth big money right? What are the odds someone realizes it’s neither 5 star at the time? After going over the top 20 QBs from that class, maybe 2 were even decent?

This idea teams pay all this money up front before athletes prove they can even play at this competition seems misguided, and somewhat foolish.

And maybe you’ll prove me wrong and there will be a line of teams waiting to spend $10M on a recruit. I would imagine if they do it’s from the pocket of the wealthiest of donors who aren’t looking for a good business decision.
 
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I applaud your confidence in your posts, truly. There’s no need to go into what economists and data analysts do on the board, no patronizing necessary.

This idea that “more schools would bid beyond 10M if it weren’t for the economic power struggle” is just a statement that you claim, with no actual data or source. It reminds me of the person who starts a claim off with “statistics say….” and never actually claim their source. I’m well aware of revenue sharing ideas and university’s reluctancy to share with the players.

That really doesn’t have much to do with paying a high school kid $10M. You see, recruiting in college is far more unpredictable than the NFL draft. So many more players, all different levels of competition, and the most difficult aspect of recruiting as a whole: will this player continue to improve and progress? Or, are they at their peak athletically. Thats a very difficult prediction for a 17/18 year old.

For instance the class of 2020 pro style QB’s on Rivals. #1 QB was DJ Uiagalelei, only other 5 star was QB #2 Harrison Bailey, no idea who he is today. 4 star CJ Stroud after them. So only 1 of these 3 is probably worth big money right? What are the odds someone realizes it’s neither 5 star at the time? After going over the top 20 QBs from that class, maybe 2 were even decent?

This idea teams pay all this money up front before athletes prove they can even play at this competition seems misguided, and somewhat foolish.

And maybe you’ll prove me wrong and there will be a line of teams waiting to spend $10M on a recruit. I would imagine if they do it’s from the pocket of the wealthiest of donors who aren’t looking for a good business decision.
I'm not trying to patronize you but you may be sensing a little bit of frustration in my tone because I feel like I'm repeating myself over and over and the point I'm trying to convey is not landing and it might not even be anybody's fault but my own. I apologize if that's the case. I also appreciate the discussion.

In soccer and baseball and many other sports that make the kinds of money that college football in America makes high school talent of the highest caliber is being guaranteed 7 and 8 digits

This is straight out of high school without ever taking a professional at bat without ever riding a factory bike without ever hitting a jump shot with a NBA caliber player in their face etc etc

So there is precedent for investing multi-millions in very green/raw prospective talent. The fact that most of these prospects don't fully reach their potential or ever return a single dollar on their investment doesn't change the fact that their fair market value is still worth millions of dollars as a top prospect.

It's up to the institutions to figure out what the fair market value is for prospective talent based on the revenues and profits in the sport and to invest accordingly. The risk that the prospect completely flames out is built into their cost

Unfortunately I don't even think any of this is on Notre Dame's radar. the operation feels like it's being ran out of a neighborhood high school back in the 1960s sometimes and the results on the field over the last 30 years is a testament to that
 
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Is that why he got into coaching or was it to win a NC and be considered one of the great coaches in CFB?? If he got into it for 💰 only then it fits his loser mentality perfectly! He was a prick in 83' when he started at Assumption and has only gotten worse over the last 40 years.
That's too bad...he speaks so highly of you.
 
LSU fans are losing their minds over the flip. The 60 mil owed to Kelly is getting smaller by the day. TAMU owed Jimbo 77 mil and was glad to pay it. Kelly will have to gut his coaching staff after this season.....and that means starting over. I don't think LSU has the appetite for a do over after year 3. I think he's gone after this season.
 
This isn’t Barstool money. Michigan released a statement and the first names that were mentioned were Larry Ellison & his wife. Billionaire money is a different level. Michigan appears to be competing with the likes of Oregon on NIL spend.

https://www.championscircleuofm.com/thosewhostayhome
Right, that's the new word. Larry Ellison. Well, lucky for Michigan. They have their sugar daddy, who could easily manage an NFL payroll annually with no problem. And BU is the first big splash. That little geek was just the frontman.

But barstool probably wanted to get their beak wet as it were. With a nominal contribution, so they can bask in it. In any case, revenue sharing is basically here, so it's going to totally blow up everything. At least that's my very slight understanding. And NIL's reign of bidding war terror will have been short-lived. Whether or not Ellison is going to spend heavily on the program overall, I guess we'll find out.
 
LSU fans are losing their minds over the flip. The 60 mil owed to Kelly is getting smaller by the day. TAMU owed Jimbo 77 mil and was glad to pay it. Kelly will have to gut his coaching staff after this season.....and that means starting over. I don't think LSU has the appetite for a do over after year 3. I think he's gone after this season.
Here you go again. You're drooling again! I honestly think someone like you would creep LSU fans out. Even the LSU fans that ND fans like you inspired in the first place. The average cranky, meathead BK-hating LSU fan is common to every team, to every fanbase. But you're next level, the very palpable, personal desire, and lust on your part to watch BK suffer and be degraded almost like a sadist would trigger an instinctive revulsion. He's still their coach. Plus they don't like to see other men drool.
 
I'm not trying to patronize you but you may be sensing a little bit of frustration in my tone because I feel like I'm repeating myself over and over and the point I'm trying to convey is not landing and it might not even be anybody's fault but my own. I apologize if that's the case. I also appreciate the discussion.

In soccer and baseball and many other sports that make the kinds of money that college football in America makes high school talent of the highest caliber is being guaranteed 7 and 8 digits

This is straight out of high school without ever taking a professional at bat without ever riding a factory bike without ever hitting a jump shot with a NBA caliber player in their face etc etc

So there is precedent for investing multi-millions in very green/raw prospective talent. The fact that most of these prospects don't fully reach their potential or ever return a single dollar on their investment doesn't change the fact that their fair market value is still worth millions of dollars as a top prospect.

It's up to the institutions to figure out what the fair market value is for prospective talent based on the revenues and profits in the sport and to invest accordingly. The risk that the prospect completely flames out is built into their cost

Unfortunately I don't even think any of this is on Notre Dame's radar. the operation feels like it's being ran out of a neighborhood high school back in the 1960s sometimes and the results on the field over the last 30 years is a testament to that
The frustration is mutual. I do understand your viewpoint. That players have value at all different levels, and there are players which values that far exceed a $12M cap. True.

Where we differ is college football is very different than any other sport. It is a 3-4 year max contract, different than any sport you’ve mentioned. Also, my hesitation on paying someone like underwood now, is not that players aren’t worth the money, it’s if these players can necessarily be identified as early as Underwood was. Possibly the most valuable college player in the last 10-12 years was Johnny Manziel, he’s someone who would never have been valued high until after recruiting.

To your last point, when someone like Ellison comes in, true market value no longer matters. They can just overspend with no issue. $10M to someone with $230B is not the same as $10M to any institution.

I don’t think we need to keep arguing our points, simply two different views on when players values are known.
 
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Right, that's the new word. Larry Ellison. Well, lucky for Michigan. They have their sugar daddy, who could easily manage an NFL payroll annually with no problem. And BU is the first big splash. That little geek was just the frontman.

But barstool probably wanted to get their beak wet as it were. With a nominal contribution, so they can bask in it. In any case, revenue sharing is basically here, so it's going to totally blow up everything. At least that's my very slight understanding. And NIL's reign of bidding war terror will have been short-lived. Whether or not Ellison is going to spend heavily on the program overall, I guess we'll find out.
Agreed with everything you put here, and we don’t agree terribly often so this is a nice change of pace!
 
LSU fans are losing their minds over the flip. The 60 mil owed to Kelly is getting smaller by the day. TAMU owed Jimbo 77 mil and was glad to pay it. Kelly will have to gut his coaching staff after this season.....and that means starting over. I don't think LSU has the appetite for a do over after year 3. I think he's gone after this season.
“LSU Fans are losing their minds…”

So were Notre Dame fans in 2016 who wanted Brian Kelly fired after a 4-8 season.

And that went nowhere.
 
The frustration is mutual. I do understand your viewpoint. That players have value at all different levels, and there are players which values that far exceed a $12M cap. True.

Where we differ is college football is very different than any other sport. It is a 3-4 year max contract, different than any sport you’ve mentioned. Also, my hesitation on paying someone like underwood now, is not that players aren’t worth the money, it’s if these players can necessarily be identified as early as Underwood was. Possibly the most valuable college player in the last 10-12 years was Johnny Manziel, he’s someone who would never have been valued high until after recruiting.

To your last point, when someone like Ellison comes in, true market value no longer matters. They can just overspend with no issue. $10M to someone with $230B is not the same as $10M to any institution.

I don’t think we need to keep arguing our points, simply two different views on when players values are known.
Wealthy alums have been supporting their favorite school's endeavors going back to the start of time. Isn't this essentially what endowments are? Some wealthy donor wants to see his school do well so is willing to burn millions of dollars of his own money so that the school prospers? I don't see the problem. It sounds like a win win to me. I don't understand why once the players start getting a well deserved piece of the pie, everybody wants to start clutching their pearls.

Also, a lot of prospects flameout (don't ever produce for the schools they join) but a lot of them do produce as well.

Is football talent less predictable than baseball talent that has to graduate like 4 levels of pro baseball before ever taking a major league at bat? I doubt it. The best HS baseball talent in the june draft get paid 7-8 figures and most of those guys don't ever make it to the major leagues. The average major league baseball team isn't making much more money than a college football blue blood in 2024.

Coaching staffs are being paid $20M at major P4 schools .. and now those same schools have added another $20-$30M in NIL to retain the players on their roster as well. This is the cost of doing business.

Football is dangerous. CTE is a real thing. Players are risking long term injury to make schools extremely wealthy at a chance to earn millions of dollars in the NFL someday with a very small window to earn. Its good that they are starting to get paid for the value that they produce (even if that value is purely potential value) much sooner.
 
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Wealthy alums have been supporting their favorite school's endeavors going back to the start of time. Isn't this essentially what endowments are? Some wealthy donor wants to see his school do well so is willing to burn millions of dollars of his own money so that the school prospers? I don't see the problem. It sounds like a win win to me. I don't understand why once the players start getting a well deserved piece of the pie, everybody wants to start clutching their pearls.

Also, a lot of prospects flameout (don't ever produce for the schools they join) but a lot of them do produce as well.

Is football talent less predictable than baseball talent that has to graduate like 4 levels of pro baseball before ever taking a major league at bat? I doubt it. The best HS baseball talent in the june draft get paid 7-8 figures and most of those guys don't ever make it to the major leagues. The average major league baseball team isn't making much more money than a college football blue blood in 2024.

Coaching staffs are being paid $20M at major P4 schools .. and now those same schools have added another $20-$30M in NIL to retain the players on their roster as well. This is the cost of doing business.

Football is dangerous. CTE is a real thing. Players are risking long term injury to make schools extremely wealthy at a chance to earn millions of dollars in the NFL someday with a very small window to earn. Its good that they are starting to get paid for the value that they produce (even if that value is purely potential value) much sooner.
I don’t disagree with anything you said here. ND players are paid well in NIL. The difference currently is paying the recruit before they produce on the field. If ND wants to join that game, im all for it, I mean, it’s not my money. All I was saying is that game is a bit easier when billionaire donors like Ellison & Knight exist for certain teams, because if their players don’t produce, it’s pennies on the dollar compared to regular millionaire donors.

What we don’t know is how locker rooms respond yet to a kid showing up day 1 with a 10M contract without earning his stripes. Do the other players care? Does it lead to envy and less team synergy? I’m honestly not sure but wouldn’t be surprised.
 
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And they'll end up 6-6 if they can get by Northwestern. (Still, I'd take that after a natty.) Not convinced about their coaching, post-Harbaugh. They've now put all of their egg$$$ in one basket. We'll see.
 
I think the best indicator of where a team stands in the hierarchy of college football is the F+ rankings. F+ sees Notre Dame as a back end top 10 team and considerably far away from the top five or so teams in the country which isn't too far away from how F+ has viewed Notre Dame going back to the inception of the F+ system.

What has Notre Dame won over the last 15 years being a back-end top 10 to top 15 team? They usually do well versus their ACC & G5 opponents and then get gobsmacked against anybody at the high end of college football (to the teams that are securing the type of prospects that Underwood represents)

Somehow I'm the only one able to make this connection in the entirety of the Notre Dame fan base

With that being said how do you think I think Notre Dame will do in the playoffs in terms of their upside/chances of winning national title?
You never answered my question. How far does this ND team go. Please take a stance.

I think this ND team can play with anyone in the country.

Depending on how the bracket shakes out, we can certainly get into Rd 2 or the Final 4. At that point, we gotta play well, and win the 60 minutes in front of us.

ND is big, physical, can run the ball, plays great D, and takes the ball away at a high clip......there is no team out there that I look at, and think "we can't beat them".
 
I think this ND team can play with anyone in the country.

Depending on how the bracket shakes out, we can certainly get into Rd 2 or the Final 4. At that point, we gotta play well, and win the 60 minutes in front of us.

ND is big, physical, can run the ball, plays great D, and takes the ball away at a high clip......there is no team out there that I look at, and think "we can't beat them".
I agree. Depending on how the bracket shakes out we might not see one of those top 5-6 teams until the last round or two. But what value is there in winning a couple of rounds of playoff games only to be a major underdog at some point and predictably get beat ?

I guess i'd rather watch ND win some playoff games than not, but at what point does ND do what it takes to bridge the gap so that they have more of a 50-50 chance instead of a 30-70 chance when they inevitably run into a higher tier team?

And for the record here is how i would 'tier' the playoff level teams through week 12 (using F+):

tier 1: OSU
tier 2: Oregon, Texas, Alabama, Ole Miss
tier 3: Georgia, PSU, Notre Dame
tier 4: Indiana, Miami, Tennessee, South Carolina, Texas A&M, Clemson

ND is a back end tier 3 team (and would be an underdog vs all the teams listed ahead of them to one degree or another).
 
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If we didn't have the injuries to key players and Leonard wasn't annointed the starting QB, we clearly had an A+ lineup that would have competed for the title. No doubt about it. If we get into the playoffs we have an outside shot at winning. How would more NIL money solve the injury bug and the choice of QB by the coaches?
I dont think ND lacks warm bodies even with the injuries. They are stacked with a ton of good players. What they lack are great players though. And the tier 1 and tier 2 teams are loaded with them.

More NIL budget would allow ND to replace some of these good players with elite difference makers at the high end.
 
To add to my last post.

If I was NDs version of Larry Ellison i would give them a cool $30M restricted donation for just the '25 class to be used only on 5-star and high 4-star WRs, QBs, and Edge rushers to add to what they are fielding now to get them into that tier 1 of teams where they could reasonably have a chance to win a national title
 
If we didn't have the injuries to key players and Leonard wasn't annointed the starting QB, we clearly had an A+ lineup that would have competed for the title. No doubt about it. If we get into the playoffs we have an outside shot at winning. How would more NIL money solve the injury bug and the choice of QB by the coaches?
Really? The offense is rolling. The QB choice was clearly the right one.
 
If we didn't have the injuries to key players and Leonard wasn't annointed the starting QB, we clearly had an A+ lineup that would have competed for the title. No doubt about it. If we get into the playoffs we have an outside shot at winning. How would more NIL money solve the injury bug and the choice of QB by the coaches?
The choice of QB was the only one to make. He's by far the best qb for this season and team. Not even a debate
 
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I dont think ND lacks warm bodies even with the injuries. They are stacked with a ton of good players. What they lack are great players though. And the tier 1 and tier 2 teams are loaded with them.

More NIL budget would allow ND to replace some of these good players with elite difference makers at the high end.
Texas in a tier above georgia

LOL
 
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I agree. Depending on how the bracket shakes out we might not see one of those top 5-6 teams until the last round or two. But what value is there in winning a couple of rounds of playoff games only to be a major underdog at some point and predictably get beat ?

I guess i'd rather watch ND win some playoff games than not, but at what point does ND do what it takes to bridge the gap so that they have more of a 50-50 chance instead of a 30-70 chance when they inevitably run into a higher tier team?

And for the record here is how i would 'tier' the playoff level teams through week 12 (using F+):

tier 1: OSU
tier 2: Oregon, Texas, Alabama, Ole Miss
tier 3: Georgia, PSU, Notre Dame
tier 4: Indiana, Miami, Tennessee, South Carolina, Texas A&M, Clemson

ND is a back end tier 3 team (and would be an underdog vs all the teams listed ahead of them to one degree or another).
Georgia pounded Texas in Austin.

Texas never was really in that game.
 
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It is all about throwing money around with chasingbrains. Money grows on trees. It is always the people with no money telling others how to spend.
Didn't work out so well for a certain group in early November. 😉
 
Whatever you say Sparky.
RL can't throw a 🏈 into the ocean and there isn't a logical football fan across this country that doesn't know it...all except a very tiny portion of ND homers but, even across ND boards 99% of fans can see the ****ing obvious! 3rd & 10 game on the line against any of the top 5 and the games over!! His feet won't help him either against better athletes in that kind of a game! He's good on his feet but, he ain't Vick, Jackson or Daniels on his feet!!! He's dead in the water when this scenario arises if even does and if he makes a game winning play & not against the likes of BYU, Boise etc... I will gladly leave this board!🍀
 
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RL can't throw a 🏈 into the ocean and there isn't a logical football fan across this country that doesn't know it...all except a very tiny portion of ND homers but, across even ND boards 99% of fans can see the ****ing obvious! 3rd & 10 game on the line against any of the top 5 and the games over!! His feet won't help him either against better athletes in that kind of a game! He's good on his feet but, he ain't Vick, Jackson or Daniels on his feet!!! He's dead in the water when this scenario arises if, we even get there. If we do and he makes a game winning play & not against the likes of BYU, Boise etc... I will gladly leave this board!🍀
He is by far the best option at QB for ND. He is a nightmare to defend against because of his running ability. His passing is erratic but has shown steady improvement.
This is a fun team to root for. If you aren't enjoying watching this team.. that's your problem.
 
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He is by far the best option at QB for ND. He is a nightmare to defend against because of his running ability. His passing is erratic but has shown steady improvement.
This is a fun team to root for. If you aren't enjoying watching this team.. that's your problem.
We haven't played 1 team that's close to what we will face to win a NC!!!!! IF & when that happens you, being part of the 1% that thinks we have a shot w/ him will have a very sad day! Again, if he makes that game winning play, I'm gladly gone!
Who said I don't enjoy it and don't tell me how to experience something I've been in love w/ for 54 years since I was 5!!!! Lastly you 1% homers it's ok to watch the game and want ND to win a 🏆 but, it's also possible to not be homer and admit what the rest of the fan base & country sees, fans like you are why people hate ND & their fans!
 
ND's D won that game and it's not even a debate! Well maybe throw in Wiegman as complete ass also but, RL did nothing in that game or the following game against WHO? A HS team🍀
He had 221 yards of offense in his first game on the road with a young OL and the game winning drive.

He and the offense has gotten much better since then. I think he'll be fine
 
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We haven't played 1 team that's close to what we will face to win a NC!!!!! IF & when that happens you, being part of the 1% that thinks we have a shot w/ him will have a very sad day! Again, if he makes that game winning play, I'm gladly gone!
Who said I don't enjoy it and don't tell me how to experience something I've been in love w/ for 54 years since I was 5!!!! Lastly you 1% homers it's ok to watch the game and want ND to win a 🏆 but, it's also possible to not be homer and admit what the rest of the fan base & country sees, fans like you are why people hate ND & their fans!
Yes we have, Texas Am
 
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