Thoughts On The Offense in The USC Game After a Second Watch

[francade]

“ and a quarterback who is averaging somewhere between 10-20% completion percentage on Go Route / Fade Routes.”

Where did you get that stat? I rewatched the game too and marked all the throws that can be viewed as *go route/fades.

1st drive) *perfect throw to Mack on the fade and he had it in his hands but the dB rips it out. On 3rd down, he’s flushed out of the pocket to the right w/ immediate pressure & and is forced to try to hit Mack in the short middle.

2nd drive) two runs on 1st & 2nd downs, on 3rd down, #1 for usc is in so fast, there was nothing he could do.

3rd drive) 1st down flushed w/ quick pressure
2nd down screen to Williams. 2nd down *slightly overthrown fade to Boykin. Quick out to finke, swing to Williams and then another *overthrown ball to Boykin on a fade. Then a screen to finke and then the pass broken up on the button hook to finke

After the first three drives he is 1 for 3 in go route/fades in terms of accuracy.

4th drive) Williams run on 1st & 2nd, 3rd down conversion on 10 td out to finke. Another *fade to Boykin that hits his outstretched hand but is slightly overthrown (book may have anticipated an outside move by Boykin to get past Marshall but he beats him inside instead. No excuses, just an observation. That’s still on book. Then there’s a jones run and a the 11yd run by book for the first. Then a Rollout to chase and a Williams run. Then an out to finke and a jones run. Then *the perfect strike to finke on the td.

So far he’s 2-5 on the routes we’re discussing.

5th drive) sack on 1st, Jones run for first on 2nd down (definitely should’ve called a timeout w/ 26 seconds left. We would’ve had 10 more seconds to work w/). Perfect throw on the Deep out to Boykin and then a laser to chase on a deeper out to setup the Hail Mary.

So 2-5 in the first half in throws we’re discussing. (I’m not gonna count the Hail Mary)

6th drive) no *throws were made on our 6th & 7th drives.

8th drive)
1stdown screen to dexter and then a perfect *throw to Boykin on fade. After Dexter run, he rips a skinny post to chase. Then a throw away, incomplete slant and then immediate pressure forcing a low throw to finke on curl route.

9th drive)
1st down perfect *throw to Boykin resulting in PI (questionable call but prefect throw)

So far he’s 4-7 on the throws we’re discussing.

Here is the really bad one. Misses *wide open finke where he could’ve punted it to him if he wanted to. He obviously would’ve liked to have that one back and put some air on it. *4-8 so far.

After a short cross to chase and a good read of blitz swing to dexter we try the trick play. Then a dexter run. Skinny post to finke was off (looked like finke got dinged on the trick play and came up a little gimpy on that play)

10th drive)
Dexter run, screen to dexter, dexter run, dexter run, short cross to chase, read option and then possibly his biggest mental mistake w/ the roll left *throw to Mack that was picked in the end zone. The ball was thrown accurately but the safety was pulled over w/ the other wr. Bad decision

4-9 although the pick was accurate just thrown into coverage.

11th drive)
Dexter run and then a well thrown *fade to Boykin that was covered (looked like PI). 3rd and 12 great run by book for a 16 td gain & 1st down. Two read options and then the swing to jones on the blitz for the long td.

So he was 5-10 in terms of accuracy in the throws we’re taking about. The 10% to 20% accuracy on those throws is a bunch of made up bullshit. And that game was probably the worst accuracy he’s had in those throws. And taking into account that Boykin doesn’t have top end speed makes those throws harder because they have to be more precise. Boykin makes up for it w/ his positioning & hands and that’s why we’ve been very successful w/ those throws. Certainly not 10-20%, not even close.

He’s not perfect and he needs to work on some things but every qb in the country can be nitpicked. This is a total over analysis, imo.

 

[HDK]

very nice write up and agree with most of your points. i was wondering on how 0-line would perform this year after Mike and Q moved on. the last couple years our line was truly dominant particularly on the ground. haven't seen that consistent dominance this year. lets be honest SC has athletes but they lack depth and experience on d-line and our line really struggled with them at times. with the big boys my fear is we struggle more

I think the offensive line will be the key, or really the Achilles heel, in the playoffs. Even last year, with two All-Americans, we struggled to run the ball at times -- especially against teams that sold out against the run like Miami. I just think we are a step too slow. I also think we really need a fast WR who can give us a reliable downfield threat and a QB who can deliver the ball to him. I agree with those who say our offense doesn't have a lot of game breakers other than Dexter, so I worry about that too.

 

[nemeth#5]

I thoroughly enjoyed this IIO. What was the deal with USC's final TD drive late. That made it an onside recovery away from making things worrisome. Am I over reacting I wonder?

That one hurt a lot of people in Vegas.... my friend included....

 

[K.C. Willis]

I think being at the game gives you less perspective. Too much happening. It's not until I get home and watch the game on DVR that I get the total picture. Too many distractions to see anything more than a generalized review.

Not when you are sitting in endzone seats. Much better in my opinion.

 

[IowaIrish1]

That one hurt a lot of people in Vegas.... my friend included....

I think Rece even said something during the game about the last TD and it's importance for other things.

 

[Toby Smart]

Not when you are sitting in endzone seats. Much better in my opinion.

That's where I sit at the ND games and at ground level, 50 yards or more behind the play, with all the stadium distractions, it's almost impossible to make anything other than a generalized analysis of the game. Especially when the action is in the other end.

 

[nemeth#5]

I think Rece even said something during the game about the last TD and it's importance for other things.

I was watching at a bar in Mexico with the Spanish broadcast.... but by the end of the game the entire bar knew what was at stake..... the overturned pic right before it was devastating.... we all knew what was about to come lol.

 

[TDIrish27]

Claypool is nowhere near an elite WR right now. If he were to declare for the nfl draft after this season, he’d be a late round guy (at best) and more likely just go undrafted.

Now, he has some elite tools, and if he developed those further he would have a shot at developing into an elite WR after another year.

The last 3-4 games are the first time in his career that he’s really shown improvement.

We’ll see what happens with Claypool.

I think he's a Rd 4 guy

He has size and upside and is an excellent ST player.

Type of guy Bill B takes for the Pats.

 

[IrishInOntario]

“ and a quarterback who is averaging somewhere between 10-20% completion percentage on Go Route / Fade Routes.”

Where did you get that stat? I rewatched the game too and marked all the throws that can be viewed as *go route/fades.

1st drive) *perfect throw to Mack on the fade and he had it in his hands but the dB rips it out. On 3rd down, he’s flushed out of the pocket to the right w/ immediate pressure & and is forced to try to hit Mack in the short middle.

2nd drive) two runs on 1st & 2nd downs, on 3rd down, #1 for usc is in so fast, there was nothing he could do.

3rd drive) 1st down flushed w/ quick pressure
2nd down screen to Williams. 2nd down *slightly overthrown fade to Boykin. Quick out to finke, swing to Williams and then another *overthrown ball to Boykin on a fade. Then a screen to finke and then the pass broken up on the button hook to finke

After the first three drives he is 1 for 3 in go route/fades in terms of accuracy.

4th drive) Williams run on 1st & 2nd, 3rd down conversion on 10 td out to finke. Another *fade to Boykin that hits his outstretched hand but is slightly overthrown (book may have anticipated an outside move by Boykin to get past Marshall but he beats him inside instead. No excuses, just an observation. That’s still on book. Then there’s a jones run and a the 11yd run by book for the first. Then a Rollout to chase and a Williams run. Then an out to finke and a jones run. Then *the perfect strike to finke on the td.

So far he’s 2-5 on the routes we’re discussing.

5th drive) sack on 1st, Jones run for first on 2nd down (definitely should’ve called a timeout w/ 26 seconds left. We would’ve had 10 more seconds to work w/). Perfect throw on the Deep out to Boykin and then a laser to chase on a deeper out to setup the Hail Mary.

So 2-5 in the first half in throws we’re discussing. (I’m not gonna count the Hail Mary)

6th drive) no *throws were made on our 6th & 7th drives.

8th drive)
1stdown screen to dexter and then a perfect *throw to Boykin on fade. After Dexter run, he rips a skinny post to chase. Then a throw away, incomplete slant and then immediate pressure forcing a low throw to finke on curl route.

9th drive)
1st down perfect *throw to Boykin resulting in PI (questionable call but prefect throw)

So far he’s 4-7 on the throws we’re discussing.

Here is the really bad one. Misses *wide open finke where he could’ve punted it to him if he wanted to. He obviously would’ve liked to have that one back and put some air on it. *4-8 so far.

After a short cross to chase and a good read of blitz swing to dexter we try the trick play. Then a dexter run. Skinny post to finke was off (looked like finke got dinged on the trick play and came up a little gimpy on that play)

10th drive)
Dexter run, screen to dexter, dexter run, dexter run, short cross to chase, read option and then possibly his biggest mental mistake w/ the roll left *throw to Mack that was picked in the end zone. The ball was thrown accurately but the safety was pulled over w/ the other wr. Bad decision

4-9 although the pick was accurate just thrown into coverage.

11th drive)
Dexter run and then a well thrown *fade to Boykin that was covered (looked like PI). 3rd and 12 great run by book for a 16 td gain & 1st down. Two read options and then the swing to jones on the blitz for the long td.

So he was 5-10 in terms of accuracy in the throws we’re taking about. The 10% to 20% accuracy on those throws is a bunch of made up bullshit. And that game was probably the worst accuracy he’s had in those throws. And taking into account that Boykin doesn’t have top end speed makes those throws harder because they have to be more precise. Boykin makes up for it w/ his positioning & hands and that’s why we’ve been very successful w/ those throws. Certainly not 10-20%, not even close.

He’s not perfect and he needs to work on some things but every qb in the country can be nitpicked. This is a total over analysis, imo.

This is incorrect.

Book was 3-10 on the game on downfield passes, including the hail marry to Boykin and the corner route to Finke.

He was 1-8 (with one PI drawn) on Go routes and Fade routes, with the lone completion being to Boykin down the sideline in the 2nd half. The interception in the endzone was a Go Route to Mack in the end zone that was underthrown hoping Mack could come back and out jump the USC defenders.

He completed a couple intermediate balls, such as the delayed slant to Claypool in the 2nd half, a deep out route to Claypool and a 15'ish yard route that Boykin broke off because of the coverage, on the last drive of the first half. None of those were downfield throws, nor were the screens passes and routes out of the backfield that were the product of most of his yards on the day.

Ian was 12.5% on the game on Fade Routes and Go Routes, exactly in line with the 10%-20% I suggested he was. Boykin was interfered with on one occasion, so if I remove that, 15%... You don't get to credit him for balls that weren't completed, or routes that were not downfield.

 

[francade]

I was referring to the accuracy of the those balls thrown, not actual completions. He didn’t throw 7 out of 10 inaccurate fades. Inaccuracy on these types of throws is what some of you are harping about. Do you scrutinize other qb’s deep balls w/ the same due diligence? If so, you’re probably gonna see similar results. I saw tua miss a wide open wr Saturday that you called “inexcusable” for book. Same exact thing, wr wide open and he overthrew him. Don’t know how many times he’s missed on deep balls this year but I’ll bet it’s not as high a clip as he is on short routes. Remember, I’m talking about accuracy, not actual completions so it’s virtually impossible to really dissect unless you watch every deep ball thrown by every qb. Now I’m a bit of a sicko so I can do that for an ND game, but that’s about the extent of it.

 

[SIhoosier26]

This is incorrect.

Book was 3-10 on the game on downfield passes, including the hail marry to Boykin and the corner route to Finke.

He was 1-8 (with one PI drawn) on Go routes and Fade routes, with the lone completion being to Boykin down the sideline in the 2nd half. The interception in the endzone was a Go Route to Mack in the end zone that was underthrown hoping Mack could come back and out jump the USC defenders.

He completed a couple intermediate balls, such as the delayed slant to Claypool in the 2nd half, a deep out route to Claypool and a 15'ish yard route that Boykin broke off because of the coverage, on the last drive of the first half. None of those were downfield throws, nor were the screens passes and routes out of the backfield that were the product of most of his yards on the day.

Ian was 12.5% on the game on Fade Routes and Go Routes, exactly in line with the 10%-20% I suggested he was. Boykin was interfered with on one occasion, so if I remove that, 15%... You don't get to credit him for balls that weren't completed, or routes that were not downfield.

IIO I really respect your opinion, can you take a look at my post. (post 11) and answer some of my questions?

 

[IrishInOntario]

I was referring to the accuracy of the those balls thrown, not actual completions. He didn’t throw 7 out of 10 inaccurate fades. Inaccuracy on these types of throws is what some of you are harping about. Do you scrutinize other qb’s deep balls w/ the same due diligence? If so, you’re probably gonna see similar results. I saw tua miss a wide open wr Saturday that you called “inexcusable” for book. Same exact thing, wr wide open and he overthrew him. Don’t know how many times he’s missed on deep balls this year but I’ll bet it’s not as high a clip as he is on short routes. Remember, I’m talking about accuracy, not actual completions so it’s virtually impossible to really dissect unless you watch every deep ball thrown by every qb. Now I’m a bit of a sicko so I can do that for an ND game, but that’s about the extent of it.

Ok, let's talk those 10 deep balls...

1. 3 flat overthrows to Boykin on Fade routes down the sideline where Boykin, running at full speed, had the ball go significantly over his head (at 6'4, with long arms). One of which he jumped and deflected with his hand, but it was high and virtually uncatchable.

2. 1 jump ball on a back shoulder fade that resulted in a PI.

3. 1 go route down the seem to Finke that had a better chance of being picked off my the USC DB than caught by Finke

4. 2 Go routes to Aliz'e Mack, the first of which he put out right in front of Mack with Iman Marshall right there waiting so he could attack the ball. If he throws that back shoulder it's an easy completion because Marshall would have had to play through Mack's body onto the ball. The 2nd was the underthrown interception in the end zone that was really poorly advised.

5. 1 beautifully thrown corner route to Finke that he dropped in the bucket on a corner route for a touchdown.

6. 1 underthrown Hail Mary to Boykin at the end of the half. I don't blame Ian for not having the arm strength to make that throw, but had he been able to throw it 5 yards further (again, genetics fault, not his), Boykin might come down with that for a Touchdown.

7. 1 accurately thrown, back shoulder fade route that Boykin caught down the sideline.

8. 1 bad miss on the double move by Finke, for an obvious would be touchdown.

None of his 7 incompletions on downfield throws were anyone else's fault. Maybe you argue that Mack has to out wrestle Marshall for the first one down the side line, but he'd legitimately want that one back. It should have been placed on the back shoulder. If you don't believe me, reference someone else. Bryan Driskell said the exact same thing on the Podcast today so that's not just me trying to push a narrative. The kid legitimately struggles down field, particularly on routes that don't involve significant break angles.

 

[francade]

“The interception in the endzone was a Go Route to Mack in the end zone that was underthrown hoping Mack could come back and out jump the USC defenders.”

???????
There was no route on that play. He was flushed out of the pocket and was rolling to his left and if Boykin doesn’t break off his route (not his fault, that’s what you’re taught when a qb is on the run) to bring the corner and safety over there, it’s probably a mack TD.

 

[francade]

You’re calling a scramble when a qb is rolling out a “go” route? You and I have different definitions of routes. You are calling 7 out of his 10 deep balls inaccurate and you're wrong. I’m not gonna keep arguing w/ you when you keep throwing the subtle digs at the guy (like the “genetics” comment). You obviously have it out for him. Just curious, what were your pre-season thoughts on book? I truly don’t know. Were you one of the many that called people nuts for thinking he could be any good or that he could push wimbush? Serious question?

 

[IrishInOntario]

“The interception in the endzone was a Go Route to Mack in the end zone that was underthrown hoping Mack could come back and out jump the USC defenders.”

???????
There was no route on that play. He was flushed out of the pocket and was rolling to his left and if Boykin doesn’t break off his route (not his fault, that’s what you’re taught when a qb is on the run) to bring the corner and safety over there, it’s probably a mack TD.

Mack was absolutely running a route on that play. He starts in the H-back role to the right of the formation and runs an exchange with Boykin before running an out-and-up (a Go route setup by an out reoute). Book wanted to go to Mack, was flushed from the pocket, tries to make the throw anyways and throws it short and inside, rather than high, outside, towards the back of the endzone, away from the 3 USC defenders in the area.

The play is a at 1:48:35

 

[francade]

He throws it short because he’s not accounting for safety & db covering Boykin. It’s a td to Mack if they’re not brought over. There’s no route when the qb is flushed from the pocket. I don’t know what you’re taking about.

 

[francade]

No shit there was a route called. I’m saying once the qb starts scrambling, the route is scrapped. It’s ‘get open’ at that point.

 

[IrishInOntario]

You’re calling a scramble when a qb is rolling out a “go” route? You and I have different definitions of routes. You are calling 7 out of his 10 deep balls inaccurate and you're wrong. I’m not gonna keep arguing w/ you when you keep throwing the subtle digs at the guy (like the “genetics” comment). You obviously have it out for him. Just curious, what were your pre-season thoughts on book? I truly don’t know. Were you one of the many that called people nuts for thinking he could be any good or that he could push wimbush? Serious question?

You're being silly. What did I say in my post that isn't accurate?

Are genetics not the reason why Ian doesn't have a bigger arm? It's not like he can help it. I'm not being critical of him. I'm actually saying the opposite. Accuracy wasn't his problem there. Some guys can throw it that far, others can't. It's just an observation. You don't have to take it personally.

As for my pre season view of Book. I said something along the line of "You give Brandon the chance because he has more upside. If he can up his completion percentage 10+% he's going to be very hard to stop. I think Ian would be a really quality back up on an elite team".

I've conceded on numerous occasions that Ian has developed into a better player than I thought he would. I still maintain the latter part of my argument that if you look at the guys quarterbacking the elite teams, other than Notre Dame... Alabama, Clemson, Georgia, Ohio State and Oklahoma, Book with not start over Tagavailoa, Lawrence, Fromm, Haskins or Murray.

So yes, I underestimated Ian's development. No I don't think he'll be good enough to beat one of those guys head-to-head in a bowl game, particularly because I think those guys are better downfield passers, and against great teams you need to score via shot plays with some consistency, because outside of Oklahoma on that list (Ohio State's defense will be ready with a month to prepare if they make the playoffs), Notre Dame isn't going to be able to consistently, methodically nickel-and-dime those teams down field... My hypothesis is that the quarterbacks of other elite teams will connect on some downfield throws that ND's quarterback won't, and that very well could be the difference in the game.

Is that such an ridiculous statement on my behalf that I under valued Book as a long term starter, but that I still don't think he's shown the a particularly necessary skill (downfield accuracy) to beat a playoff team?

 

[IrishInOntario]

He throws it short because he’s not accounting for safety & db covering Boykin. It’s a td to Mack if they’re not brought over. There’s no route when the qb is flushed from the pocket. I don’t know what you’re taking about.

That's nonsense, Mack runs his route. He's 15 yards downfield on his route already before Ian leaves the pocket. He didn't teleport to the endzone. He ran his route. Book fired the ball short and inside hoping Mack (who had stopped in the end zone to work back to the ball) would make a play. The safety came over top with Boykin, but that's irrelavent because the ball should have been high and outside... Mack never broke off the Go route. He was simply forced to stop before running through the end zone, when the timing was disrupted when Book got flushed... It's still incompletion. Still an interception. Still an ill advised throw by Book, which is why Brian Kelly roasted him on the sideline afterwards.

The kid does lots of great things, particularly with the short an intermediate passing game. You don't need to defend him from every possible criticism. He struggles to throw the ball deep, on time, and with accuracy. It's not the end of the world, but it's a not a fabrication.

 

[francade]

You’re calling a play w/ a scramble a ”go” route and I’m being silly? The design of the play is scrapped when the qb leaves the pocket. He seemed to think he could have Mack outmuscle the smaller dB and didn’t account for the safety. It was a mistake, I cited it as such along w/ his other inaccurate throws so jam the “take it personally” BS. The only one taking things personally is you. You called him a backup and now that analysis looks, well, “silly”. So you’ll nitpick and try to validate it. Everything makes sense now. You called him a backup. You’re real easy to please though, all he has to do is beat the 4 or 5 best qbs in the country.

 

[francade]

“You don't need to defend him from every possible criticism. He struggles to throw the ball deep, on time, and with accuracy. It's not the end of the world, but it's a not a fabrication”

I don’t. I’ve cited his mistakes and misthrows. I’m simply saying he’s not as bad as you and some others are claiming he is in that area. Can he improve there? Of course, but saying he’s “playing like shit” when he misses a few deep balls is over the top.