Statistically, you're wrong. Ignoring the odds would be the stupid move, based on history. They're right FAR more often than they're wrong. You can rooted counter examples, but they're the exceptions that prove the rule, and the numbers bare that out.
Beyond that, yes we so know what Texas will be coming out with. We know their roster, we watched most of them last year, watched them in the spring game, and well get to watch them again this fall.
There are always unknowns and surprises, but so far in this thread, basically the only thing you've said that's true is that ND is better than Texas in virtually every phase of the game (on paper), is HEAVILY favored because of this, and should win this game