The harsh reality

[Patrirish]

is that only .0008 high school football players will be drafted by the NFL.

Out of those approximately 259 who are drafted how many will make an NFL roster ?

30 ? 11.6 %
80 ? 30.9 %

Now the above calculation doesn’t consider the odds for high school players deemed:
1 star
2 star
3 star
4 star
5 star

And the calculation doesn’t factor in injuries, in college or in NFL camps.

But the numbers should send a clear message to every high school football player and their parents !

Namely:

Make sure that you get a good to great college education !

The problem is that today’s money at the top of the scale has blinded parents and talented athletes to the degree that getting a good to great education has been relegated to low man on the totem pole.

Ergo, there’s an inherent conflict when it comes to attracting talented athletes who produce National Championships.

There’s a reason why Princeton, Harvard, Yale, Rice, Stanford, Duke and Notre Dame don’t seem to attract 5 star football players.

That’s my story and I’m sticking to it !

 

[notredamerises23]

Yes, but you can also argue this logic about why kids will be so eager to take NIL money because even if you are a top recruit the chances of being drafted highly aren’t that high unless everything goes perfectly. This pretty much applies to everybody except for maybe a tiny, tiny elite bunch, so if offered $1,000,000–$2,000,000…

Also, the tiny, tiny percentage you mention goes way up if you are a five star recruit. Someone like Bowen or Keely have much better odds to be drafted somewhere than the .0008 you mention.

 

[sjb75]

is that only .0008 high school football players will be drafted by the NFL.

Out of those approximately 259 who are drafted how many will make an NFL roster ?

30 ? 11.6 %
80 ? 30.9 %

Now the above calculation doesn’t consider the odds for high school players deemed:
1 star
2 star
3 star
4 star
5 star

And the calculation doesn’t factor in injuries, in college or in NFL camps.

But the numbers should send a clear message to every high school football player and their parents !

Namely:

Make sure that you get a good to great college education !

The problem is that today’s money at the top of the scale has blinded parents and talented athletes to the degree that getting a good to great education has been relegated to low man on the totem pole.

Ergo, there’s an inherent conflict when it comes to attracting talented athletes who produce National Championships.

There’s a reason why Princeton, Harvard, Yale, Rice, Stanford, Duke and Notre Dame don’t seem to attract 5 star football players.

That’s my story and I’m sticking to it !

Thanks Dad.

 

[NCDomer1]

You got to know that Uncle Sam gets 35 to 45 percent of the NIl money in taxes depending on the dispersement

 

[echowaker]

is that only .0008 high school football players will be drafted by the NFL.

Out of those approximately 259 who are drafted how many will make an NFL roster ?

30 ? 11.6 %
80 ? 30.9 %

Now the above calculation doesn’t consider the odds for high school players deemed:
1 star
2 star
3 star
4 star
5 star

And the calculation doesn’t factor in injuries, in college or in NFL camps.

But the numbers should send a clear message to every high school football player and their parents !

Namely:

Make sure that you get a good to great college education !

The problem is that today’s money at the top of the scale has blinded parents and talented athletes to the degree that getting a good to great education has been relegated to low man on the totem pole.

Ergo, there’s an inherent conflict when it comes to attracting talented athletes who produce National Championships.

There’s a reason why Princeton, Harvard, Yale, Rice, Stanford, Duke and Notre Dame don’t seem to attract 5 star football players.

That’s my story and I’m sticking to it !

You just make stuff up don't you ? Without doing the actual number crunching I'd be willing to bet that nearly every player drafted in 2022 is either on an active NFL roster or on a practice squad. Now I understand the point you are trying to make but at least make a minimal attempt to have some level of credibility in your opinions.

 

[NyyorkerND]

is that only .0008 high school football players will be drafted by the NFL.

Out of those approximately 259 who are drafted how many will make an NFL roster ?

30 ? 11.6 %
80 ? 30.9 %

Now the above calculation doesn’t consider the odds for high school players deemed:
1 star
2 star
3 star
4 star
5 star

And the calculation doesn’t factor in injuries, in college or in NFL camps.

But the numbers should send a clear message to every high school football player and their parents !

Namely:

Make sure that you get a good to great college education !

The problem is that today’s money at the top of the scale has blinded parents and talented athletes to the degree that getting a good to great education has been relegated to low man on the totem pole.

Ergo, there’s an inherent conflict when it comes to attracting talented athletes who produce National Championships.

There’s a reason why Princeton, Harvard, Yale, Rice, Stanford, Duke and Notre Dame don’t seem to attract 5 star football players.

That’s my story and I’m sticking to it !

While there is some validity to what you are trying to summarize, you are still off base. A kid doesn't have to go to ND, Harvard, Stanford, etc. If they are serious about school. Hence in point Myron Rolle, in the mid 2000s I remember this board in meltdown bc he choose to go to FSU over ND. He had a pro career albeit 3 years if I'm not mistaken but that guy in now a neurosurgeon.

Now to your point the vast majority of these kids will never see the pros or big money so if they choose NIL good for them. If they are serious about education they will be fine, but they may never see that NIL money again.

 

[tbonesays]

You got to know that Uncle Sam gets 35 to 45 percent of the NIl money in taxes depending on the dispersement

That's why it will be banned/curtailed. We can't have the youngins learning what the government does at that age. They might start to ask about how it gets spent.

 

[Patrirish]

You just make stuff up don't you ? Without doing the actual number crunching I'd be willing to bet that nearly every player drafted in 2022 is either on an active NFL roster or on a practice squad. Now I understand the point you are trying to make but at least make a minimal attempt to have some level of credibility in your opinions.

What are you willing to bet ?

I did the number crunching and my numbers are accurate.

As to my credibility, the genesis for this thread was a 3 hour discussion at dinner with the President of an NFL team on Tuesday night.

How’s that for credibility ?
Or, as usual, do you profess to know so much more than everybody else, including the President of an NFL team ?

I’m beyond stunned that you claim to understand my point !

 

[sjb75]

You got to know that Uncle Sam gets 35 to 45 percent of the NIl money in taxes depending on the dispersement

Cash in McDonalds bags is not taxed. And if you are good enough and you privately request cash, you will get cash.

 

[Patrirish]

While there is some validity to what you are trying to summarize, you are still off base. A kid doesn't have to go to ND, Harvard, Stanford, etc. If they are serious about school. Hence in point Myron Rolle, in the mid 2000s I remember this board in meltdown bc he choose to go to FSU over ND. He had a pro career albeit 3 years if I'm not mistaken but that guy in now a neurosurgeon.

Now to your point the vast majority of these kids will never see the pros or big money so if they choose NIL good for them. If they are serious about education they will be fine, but they may never see that NIL money again.

No, I think that you’re off base.
You can always point out the exception to the rule, the outlier, but the fact is that so many college football players will leave college without a legitimate education, and thus be totally unprepared for a very long life after college.

I have dinner every week with a fellow who was an outstanding running back in high school, an All-State selection.. He was offered a full scholarship to a decent football school. His father, who never went to college, made him turn down the full ride. He made him go to Georgetown instead. He went on to be a prominent Cardiologist. He often says that had he taken the scholarship that he doubts that he would have achieved the professional success he now enjoys.

it’s akin to all the kids who play golf who want to make it on the PGA Tour.
Very, very few attain those heights.
Their lives would probably have been enhanced had they hit the books instead of hitting too many golf balls.

But there’s an aura of glamor that has been promoted by the visual media that makes these kids think that they too can achieve those rarified heights, even when they’re still in high school.

Knowledge is power !

 

[Patrirish]

Cash in McDonalds bags is not taxed. And if you are good enough and you privately request cash, you will get cash.

What percentage fail to get that cash ?

 

[Patrirish]

Thanks Dad.

You’re welcome, I’m happy that I was able to educate you …… again.

You have so much to learn and I can only devote a limited amount of time to bring you up to the minimum level required to remain on this site.

 

[chaseball]

You can get a really good education at a lot of FBS schools. The education part of that is in a lot of cases up to the tenacity of the student.

You can't earn millions based on your prospect profile out of HS and you can't be coached up for more future millions by the likes of the best football coaches in the country ever again. That is a once in a lifetime deal.

The "think about the education" sales pitch fails miserably in comparison to someone just writing you a 7 figure check that will set you up for the rest of your life. This should just be intuitively obvious though.

 

[Patrirish]

Yes, but you can also argue this logic about why kids will be so eager to take NIL money because even if you are a top recruit the chances of being drafted highly aren’t that high unless everything goes perfectly. This pretty much applies to everybody except for maybe a tiny, tiny elite bunch, so if offered $1,000,000–$2,000,000…

Also, the tiny, tiny percentage you mention goes way up if you are a five star recruit. Someone like Bowen or Keely have much better odds to be drafted somewhere than the .0008 you mention.

I clearly indicated that my calculation didn’t drill down to the five star levels. While the percentage will go up for five stars, the odds are still unfavorable. Just ask Tim Tebow !

 

[Golson5]

I clearly indicated that my calculation didn’t drill down to the five star levels. While the percentage will go up for five stars, the odds are still unfavorable. Just ask Tim Tebow !

He was drafted in the first round and played like 5 years so....

 

[Patrirish]

You can get a really good education at a lot of FBS schools. The education part of that is in a lot of cases up to the tenacity of the student.

You can't earn millions based on your prospect profile out of HS and you can't be coached up for more future millions by the likes of the best football coaches in the country ever again. That is a once in a lifetime deal.

The "think about the education" sales pitch fails miserably in comparison to someone just writing you a 7 figure check that will set you up for the rest of your life. This should just be intuitively obvious though.

Could you identify, with detailed specificity, those players getting 7 figure NIL checks out of High School and College.

Thanks

 

[Golson5]

I clearly indicated that my calculation didn’t drill down to the five star levels. While the percentage will go up for five stars, the odds are still unfavorable. Just ask Tim Tebow !

Then your calculation is silly. Who cares about the number of high school kids. Calculate the number of 4 and 5 stars

 

[IrishMike409]

You can get a really good education at a lot of FBS schools. The education part of that is in a lot of cases up to the tenacity of the student.

You can't earn millions based on your prospect profile out of HS and you can't be coached up for more future millions by the likes of the best football coaches in the country ever again. That is a once in a lifetime deal.

The "think about the education" sales pitch fails miserably in comparison to someone just writing you a 7 figure check that will set you up for the rest of your life. This should just be intuitively obvious though.

You can get a really good education pretty much anywhere. The kids who want to go and have great experiences, scholastically, can seek that out and find it. HS or College.

IMO, the systems are set up to largely give kids great access to all they need to have a good experience that prepares them for “whats next” in their lives.

 

[Patrirish]

He was drafted in the first round and played like 5 years so....

He was not a regular starter and played sporadically despite being the Heisman Trophy winner.

i‘m a Tebow fan but he was regarded as an NFL flop.

 

[NyyorkerND]

No, I think that you’re off base.
You can always point out the exception to the rule, the outlier, but the fact is that so many college football players will leave college without a legitimate education, and thus be totally unprepared for a very long life after college.

I have dinner every week with a fellow who was an outstanding running back in high school, an All-State selection.. He was offered a full scholarship to a decent football school. His father, who never went to college, made him turn down the full ride. He made him go to Georgetown instead. He went on to be a prominent Cardiologist. He often says that had he taken the scholarship that he doubts that he would have achieved the professional success he now enjoys.

it’s akin to all the kids who play golf who want to make it on the PGA Tour.
Very, very few attain those heights.
Their lives would probably have been enhanced had they hit the books instead of hitting too many golf balls.

But there’s an aura of glamor that has been promoted by the visual media that makes these kids think that they too can achieve those rarified heights, even when they’re still in high school.

Knowledge is power !

Dude you missed the point. So I'll repeat it, if a kid is serious about his education it doesn't matter where you go to school. An to your point about your friend, if you're smart you can go anywhere and become a doctor. I'm pretty sure your friend was serious about his studies. One major difference is you may get taught by better teachers but think about does calculus change based on the school you go to no it doesn't.

The media is a different story it's happened with all these websites clamoring to report on thousands of kids that you'll never hear of again once they get into their perspective colleges why bc it makes them money and there's a market for it. People like us follow it by varying degrees. I agree with you that it's a bit over the top but this is the era we are in.

 

[Patrirish]

You can get a really good education pretty much anywhere. The kids who want to go and have great experiences, scholastically, can seek that out and find it. HS or College.

IMO, the systems are set up to largely give kids great access to all they need to have a good experience that prepares them for “whats next” in their lives.

That doesn’t happen.

Just look at the graduation rates over the last 20 years.
They were horrendous, especially for many prominent football powers.

 

[Patrirish]

Dude you missed the point. So I'll repeat it, if a kid is serious about his education it doesn't matter where you go to school. An to your point about your friend, if you're smart you can go anywhere and become a doctor. I'm pretty sure your friend was serious about his studies. One major difference is you may get taught by better teachers but think about does calculus change based on the school you go to no it doesn't.

The media is a different story it's happened with all these websites clamoring to report on thousands of kids that you'll never hear of again once they get into their perspective colleges why bc it makes them money and there's a market for it. People like us follow it by varying degrees. I agree with you that it's a bit over the top but this is the era we are in.

If what you state were true the graduation rates for the last 20 years would have approached 100 %, but they didn’t !

Systemically, they were atrocious.

You’re taking the exception and trying to make it the rule, but that ain’t reality ….. dude !

 

[IrishMike409]

That doesn’t happen.

Just look at the graduation rates over the last 20 years.
They were horrendous, especially for many prominent football powers.

I think you missed my point.

The theme of my post was: if kids/student athletes seek out a great scholastic experience, they can easily find it. Regardless of what school they’re at, or what level (d1-d3….).

Not all kids want it, some just don’t care.

 

[chaseball]

If what you state were true the graduation rates for the last 20 years would have approached 100 %, but they didn’t !

Systemically, they were atrocious.

You’re taking the exception and trying to make it the rule, but that ain’t reality ….. dude !

There are 7 figure NIL deals enticing the best prospects based on the chatter out there. There's no official place that keeps track. These are personal deals between players and schools/companies/donors.

How does that change anything about the point that I was making? Money talks, bull#*(&# walks.

 

[Patrirish]

I think you missed my point.

The theme of my post was: if kids/student athletes seek out a great scholastic experience, they can easily find it. Regardless of what school they’re at, or what level (d1-d3….).

Not all kids want it, some just don’t care.

My point is that those kids are in the minority.

Those that fit your description tend to go to Ivy League schools or Duke, Stanford, Rice, Notre Dame, etc., etc.

NCAA graduation rates over the last 20 years tell the real story.

 

[Patrirish]

There are 7 figure NIL deals enticing the best prospects based on the chatter out there. There's no official place that keeps track. These are personal deals between players and schools/companies/donors.

How does that change anything about the point that I was making? Money talks, bull#*(&# walks.

It changes it because your claim is based upon speculation and hearsay and not concrete evidence.

 

[chaseball]

It changes it because your claim is based upon speculation and hearsay and not concrete evidence.

What does that have to do with the discussion? You are strawmanning my argument.

Take out the 7 figure deals then (since we can't speculate on what is obviously happening)

The vast majority of players are going to choose life-changing sums of money over an education. One is vastly more valuable/scarce than the other at 18 years old right out of HS.

You can always go back to school and hit the books. Only in very rare circumstances can you go back to being a star prospect/potential NFL football player.

 

[IrishMike409]

My point is that those kids are in the minority.

Those that fit your description tend to go to Ivy League schools or Duke, Stanford, Rice, Notre Dame, etc., etc.

NCAA graduation rates over the last 20 years tell the real story.

Pat, I respectfully disagree. The kids that get into Duke, ND, Stanford, etc are destined to be high achieving in the academic arena.

My point is: you can have a great college experience almost anywhere- ND, Northen Illinois, Augustana College, Central Iowa, DePaul, Northwestern, UW Osh-Kosh, etc.

All of those schools can give kids access to: passionate faculty, internship opportunities, an alumni network, job placements, etc. Those things are largely available to all kids, they just gotta seek them out.

The difference is, an ND grad likely graduates and immediately is slotted into a $200K job. A grad from Northern Illinois has to find the $55k entry level job.

 

[WhySeperateKnob]

What are you willing to bet ?

I did the number crunching and my numbers are accurate.

As to my credibility, the genesis for this thread was a 3 hour discussion at dinner with the President of an NFL team on Tuesday night.

How’s that for credibility ?
Or, as usual, do you profess to know so much more than everybody else, including the President of an NFL team ?

I’m beyond stunned that you claim to understand my point !

......Was your NFL cheerleader girlfriend with you at this dinner?.....

 

[Golson5]

He was not a regular starter and played sporadically despite being the Heisman Trophy winner.

i‘m a Tebow fan but he was regarded as an NFL flop.

But he didn't fit your narrative. He played in the nfl and made millions. Who cares if he you think he was a flop

 

[NyyorkerND]

If what you state were true the graduation rates for the last 20 years would have approached 100 %, but they didn’t !

Systemically, they were atrocious.

You’re taking the exception and trying to make it the rule, but that ain’t reality ….. dude !

Patrirish you're changing the discussion, but to that point we both support a school where you must be a student athlete while you attend. Now in the last 10 to 20 years ND has been in the high 80s to low 90s in terms of grad percentage for players on average. When it comes to other schools yes you are right but I'm not sure if your referencing ND being poor or other schools. To that point though let's not act like they are graduating 0 percent. If I had to guess it's probably in the high 50s to mid 60s for most other schools on average.

 

[notredamerises23]

Pat, I respectfully disagree. The kids that get into Duke, ND, Stanford, etc are destined to be high achieving in the academic arena.

My point is: you can have a great college experience almost anywhere- ND, Northen Illinois, Augustana College, Central Iowa, DePaul, Northwestern, UW Osh-Kosh, etc.

All of those schools can give kids access to: passionate faculty, internship opportunities, an alumni network, job placements, etc. Those things are largely available to all kids, they just gotta seek them out.

The difference is, an ND grad likely graduates and immediately is slotted into a $200K job. A grad from Northern Illinois has to find the $55k entry level job.

As an ND grad, the bolded isn’t true (wish it were lol) though could be today for those going into soffware development (i.e., overall compensation — base, bonus, stock). I will say that ND grads who then go on to business school and get MBAs do very, very well for themselves and can get close to this $200 K.

One thing about being a grad from one of these schools is that you get a wide variety of options regardless of what you major in. Someone who majors in software or petroleum engineering is going to do well regardless of where graduates from as long as he shows competence and makes it through the multi-part interviews. But I know people from my class who did not major in industry specific majors but had multiple doors open to them because they graduated from Notre Dame. This was true overseas, too.

 

[notredamerises23]

I clearly indicated that my calculation didn’t drill down to the five star levels. While the percentage will go up for five stars, the odds are still unfavorable. Just ask Tim Tebow !

The % is much, much higher than the .0008 you cited for five stars.

For a quick example, take a look at the class of 2018 as most of them have finished heir college careers. Rivals top 250 class of 2018

Of the 33 five-star players, 16 by my count have already been drafted, almost 50%. Of these 7 were drafted in the first two rounds. Additionally, looking at the classes of 2017 and 2016, if you are a five star offensive lineman or defensive lineman your chances of being drafted in the NFL are better than 50%.

Out of the other 16 out of these 33 five-stars, a few still have eligibilty with 2 or 3 being possible draft picks, a few are playing in the NFL as UDFAs (one of them being Justyn Ross who likely would have been a first round pick of not for the spine injuries he suffered), and one was a likely 1st/2nd round pick before being accused of rape (i.e., Adam Anderson of Georgia).

To be honest, if you are a consensus five star player, there’s a pretty good chance you are going to go play in the NFL as long as you avoid injury. On top of that, now you have people offering you a couple million dollars on top of the possible money you might make in the NFL.

 

[echowaker]

What are you willing to bet ?

I did the number crunching and my numbers are accurate.

As to my credibility, the genesis for this thread was a 3 hour discussion at dinner with the President of an NFL team on Tuesday night.

How’s that for credibility ?
Or, as usual, do you profess to know so much more than everybody else, including the President of an NFL team ?

I’m beyond stunned that you claim to understand my point !

So if you did in fact " crunch the numbers " , what is the actual percentage of the number of 2022 draft picks currently on NFL rosters or practice squads ? I can absolutely assure you that your original numbers are way off.

 

[echowaker]

What are you willing to bet ?

I did the number crunching and my numbers are accurate.

As to my credibility, the genesis for this thread was a 3 hour discussion at dinner with the President of an NFL team on Tuesday night.

How’s that for credibility ?
Or, as usual, do you profess to know so much more than everybody else, including the President of an NFL team ?

I’m beyond stunned that you claim to understand my point !

I'll bet anything because you're clearly wrong. Is this going to be like the pylon thread ? I randomly selected one NFL team the Buffalo Bills. They currently have 11 rookies on their roster. There are 31 other NFL teams. Fair to assume they all have at a minimum 6 rookies on their roster given the number of draft picks and signing bonus money paid out. Care to do the math ? I'll wait. I highly doubt you were dining with an NFL team President. Now you may have served him dinner or washed his dirty dishes. Who knows ?

 

[echowaker]

is that only .0008 high school football players will be drafted by the NFL.

Out of those approximately 259 who are drafted how many will make an NFL roster ?

30 ? 11.6 %
80 ? 30.9 %

Now the above calculation doesn’t consider the odds for high school players deemed:
1 star
2 star
3 star
4 star
5 star

And the calculation doesn’t factor in injuries, in college or in NFL camps.

But the numbers should send a clear message to every high school football player and their parents !

Namely:

Make sure that you get a good to great college education !

The problem is that today’s money at the top of the scale has blinded parents and talented athletes to the degree that getting a good to great education has been relegated to low man on the totem pole.

Ergo, there’s an inherent conflict when it comes to attracting talented athletes who produce National Championships.

There’s a reason why Princeton, Harvard, Yale, Rice, Stanford, Duke and Notre Dame don’t seem to attract 5 star football players.

That’s my story and I’m sticking to it !

For the record the most up to date rosters show 237 first year players in the AFC alone. This includes practice squad players also. It would certainly be fair to say that after you " crunched the numbers " you were way off.

 

[burmafrd1943]

What does that have to do with the discussion? You are strawmanning my argument.

Take out the 7 figure deals then (since we can't speculate on what is obviously happening)

The vast majority of players are going to choose life-changing sums of money over an education. One is vastly more valuable/scarce than the other at 18 years old right out of HS.

You can always go back to school and hit the books. Only in very rare circumstances can you go back to being a star prospect/potential NFL football player.

love how you say that since there is no proof except rumor of your claims that it does not have anything to do with the discussion.

The fact that your claims are without proof; and the FACT that even if a handfull out of TENS OF THOUSANDS get money means something to you is pretty much once again the best definition of just how small and tiny a person you are in all ways.

Go root for alabama; they epitomize your mindset

 

[Patrirish]

For the record the most up to date rosters show 237 first year players in the AFC alone. This includes practice squad players also. It would certainly be fair to say that after you " crunched the numbers " you were way off.

For the record, that’s a cumulative total, not an annual total you moron !

Only 259 players are drafted each year and you would have us believe that out of the 259 drafted 237 made it to the AFC ?

Learn how to read you moron !

 

[echowaker]

For the record, that’s a cumulative total, not an annual total you moron !

Only 259 players are drafted each year and you would have us believe that out of the 259 drafted 237 made it to the AFC ?

Learn how to read you moron !

Again and I'll type slower so you'll understand. There are 237 first year players in the AFC on rosters. I never stated they were all drafted. Some were undrafted free agents. The point remains that your ridiculous petcentages from your " number crunching " is way off. The percentage of the 262 players drafted in 2022 that are currently on NFL rosters is likely at least 80%. Please explain how you arrived at your laughable assumptions ?

 

[echowaker]

For the record, that’s a cumulative total, not an annual total you moron !

Only 259 players are drafted each year and you would have us believe that out of the 259 drafted 237 made it to the AFC ?

Learn how to read you moron !

I can easily see this becoming another " pylon " thread. You're so woefully uninformed again about the subject matter in a thread you yourself started. The bottom line is that in any given NFL draft the vast majority of the players drafted make NFL rosters.