The Data and the Lines

[Chitownrealist]

So the line has moved to ND +3 and I’m trying to figure out what I’m missing. It seems like both teams’ strengths should be their defenses. When one compares the defenses from 2023 here’s what the numbers show:

Total Defense
ND - # 5
AM - #19

Passing Defense
ND - #3
AM - #37

Passing TDs Allowed
ND - #1
AM - #37

Rushing Defense
ND - #26
AM - #13

Rushing TD Allowed
ND - #30
AM - #9

Scoring Defense
ND - #7
AM - #35

Our defense should be as strong as last year if not better. Theirs - I do not see that it is better.

Just looking at total offense ranks for a little more perspective:

Total Offense
ND - #29
AM - #48

Scoring Offense
ND - #7
AM - #24

With ND getting 3 and the over at 46.5, this does not seem like the lines are based on the data. I would say it is more a case of SEC and Texas gamblers versus ND gamblers.

I may have to get in on this one although I generally never bet the first game of the year. Last year I waited til NCSt to make a tidy sum. Go Irish

 

[FightingIrish44]

I’d agree with your conclusion about SEC/other bettors vs ND and the home field advantage thing.

I’m picking ND straight up (not betting) based on their defense and Leonard..of course I’m biased. A&M could still win by 14+ though as it’s football. Anything can happen.

Stats can be helpful but they’re also misleading. A&M has a lot of guys gone through the portal but also a lot of guys that came in. That makes it more difficult to predict.

 

[sjb75]

Turnover margin will be crucial as always.

 

[mrwigglesby21]

I can only assume the 'sharps' have been reading the message boards here, and over at On3, and came to the conclusion the heat will wilt the Irish.

I think Freeman and the boys are gonna go in there and knock some d*cks in the dirt and make a statement. 34-13 type game.

 

[sjb75]

I can only assume the 'sharps' have been reading the message boards here, and over at On3, and came to the conclusion the heat will wilt the Irish.

I think Freeman and the boys are gonna go in there and knock some d*cks in the dirt and make a statement. 34-13 type game.

I don’t feel that way at all:

The talent level on the two teams, IMO, does not point to that outcome.

 

[tkirish]

For me it’s a few things. A new a qb . A new offensive coordinator. Non proven wide receivers. Finally, an offensive line which is in transition. Add a night game on the road against a formidable opponent and you can see why the Irish are underdogs. The Irish can win but it won’t be easy. There are so many unknowns in a first game. That’s for both teams. But I do think in this situation being the underdog is a good thing. MF can use that to his advantage. Lou was a master at motivating his teams especially when they were underdogs

 

[Holycrossover3]

I truly feel as though Denbrock will be the key in this game. I know the odds makers take every variable into account but I don’t quite see +3 as an accurate line with such an upgrade at OC.

Anything can happen in college football. My prediction is 27-13 Irish. I believe he will script the offense well with an inexperienced O line. Run heavy with the backs, play action to the TE, a few big runs with Leonard on the edge to keep the D honest.

Defense stifles a newly coached A&M O. That’s the prediction from a guy on his couch, so you know how much weight that holds…

 

[HDK]

I truly feel as though Denbrock will be the key in this game. I know the odds makers take every variable into account but I don’t quite see +3 as an accurate line with such an upgrade at OC.

Anything can happen in college football. My prediction is 27-13 Irish. I believe he will script the offense well with an inexperienced O line. Run heavy with the backs, play action to the TE, a few big runs with Leonard on the edge to keep the D honest.

Defense stifles a newly coached A&M O. That’s the prediction from a guy on his couch, so you know how much weight that holds…

About as much weight as the couch, I guess.

 

[Holycrossover3]

About as much weight as the couch, I guess.

And the same amount as anyone else posting here.

 

[tbonesays]

And the same amount as anyone else posting here.

I can only assume the 'sharps' have been reading the message boards here, and over at On3, and came to the conclusion the heat will wilt the Irish.

I think Freeman and the boys are gonna go in there and knock some d*cks in the dirt and make a statement. 34-13 type game.

Well you have to start with the premise that bookmaking is a very technical process. The pros don't care about what fans talk about unless it is backup up by statistical evidence.

I haven't checked in ages but my understanding is that the most important datum is how many yards the qb averages. The next one down is how many starts a team has on the Oline.

 

[Chitownrealist]

I'll say it again as I do every year - the bookies don't always nail the early games in college football. The first three games are opportunities for people who are realists and follow a team closely. ND money line and the under were extremely good wagers tonight. Final final final was on me. Go Irish.

 

[Fightingirish595]

I'll say it again as I do every year - the bookies don't always nail the early games in college football. The first three games are opportunities for people who are realists and follow a team closely. ND money line and the under were extremely good wagers tonight. Final final final was on me. Go Irish.

It’s not the bookies. The professional sharp bettors correct the line that the sportsbooks put out. But yes early CFB is a somewhat inefficient market.

Personally don’t think last nights game means that was a bad line or anything. Game was tied late in the 4th.