I don’t know. I’m sure Martha Stewart asks herself that question all the time
OT Stock Market
- Thread starter deadirishpoet
- Start date
God bless your success. That is EXTRAORDINARY return in 3 months. But keep in mind...the average of the S&P500 normalizes to 9% annually in due time.
You are in the market, which is what counts.
no society can put increasing percentages of its people into poorer situations and not have sooner or later a revolution; or societal collapse due to strife between haves and have nots. THAT is the real threat
Will the fed cut rates 2/3 times? Anyone think the housing market is haywire? I look @ home prices in depressed areas of nyc & can’t understand, why it’s so expensive
This seemed too easy with CPS paid off after the auto strike as Charles Payne predicted
CRWD was the cheap PANW and climbed fast
Then I road half of the magnificent 7 to the end of the year then sold half of everything
Now using that formula(due to limited skills)
I looked for the cheaper NDVA I bought a bunch of AMD cheap from the pull back and going to wait to see which direction the markets going.
I understand my short comings so I I've been reading up on how to distinguish patterns in the stock graphs such as
The "head and shoulders pattern" to get a handle on the trends
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I know this is primarily a sports board, but what you brought up is maybe the most important national issue we have. It is exactly what I fear: a deeply polarized USA of stratified haves and have nots.
Interestingly I don't think collapse will happen, although strife will. College football is packed. There are enough haves who are more sophisticated than ever in maintaining such an order. I say the top 3 tiles will lord it over the bottom 2, who sadly will again disproportionately be POC. We're that mean as a society, gripped by extreme partisan and identity politics. Heck, do you ever read College Football Soundoff and its insane vitriol here?
For me, the only hope is a reconciliation between Democrats and GOP for a true education and jobs program. Enough with high loans for silly degrees of no ROI. Channel folks into dirty jobs and emerging hi-tech. Bring back a good degree of low end manufacturing for folks who don't have the ability to do better, as there will always be such folks.
We must teach interest, amortization, cash flow, balance sheets, income, and ROI. Simulating marriage, sickness, disability, market crashes, unemployment, divorce, marriage, and kids. So many who even earn cannot manage finances. We need to instill that AI and automation means owning more assets for guaranteed income.
I for one don't want such a divided society. I want to see all my friends be able to come to sports games with me. Never mind feeding and clothing their families with dignity. We're playing with fire here...fully agree with you on that.
So you are doing technical trading. At best, I used it to optimize entry points for long term holds. I don't do it with high frequency, although some do. You now of course know I'm more a buy and hold value investor.
I use 5% of my money for riskier technicals based momentum trading. It's mixed. Sometimes I win big, but sometimes lose. At least for me, I don't find it worth the time and effort.
95% of my money stays with the 12%-16% annual average CAGR I get from value investing. Smooth and steady, with a high confidence factor of success due to diversification in about 25 - 33 stocks. Of course, I also have funds.
BTW: many economists and even the Fed have hinted at a softer landing and avoiding a recession. I am not sure. But I am sure markets remain overvalued and the Fed does not have much wiggle room to lower rates...as we need to pare down debt, fight inflation, and get back to 4% - 6% rates average, as well as a historical S&P500 PE average of 15. This is the macroeconomic picture in which I am operating...and if I am wrong, I still invest some of my money dollar cost averaging into S&P500 funds.
Bluntly speaking those that can afford to go to college football are not the ones to worry about.I know this is primarily a sports board, but what you brought up is maybe the most important national issue we have. It is exactly what I fear: a deeply polarized USA of stratified haves and have nots.
Interestingly I don't think collapse will happen, although strife will. College football is packed. There are enough haves who are more sophisticated than ever in maintaining such an order. I say the top 3 tiles will lord it over the bottom 2, who sadly will again disproportionately be POC. We're that mean as a society, gripped by extreme partisan and identity politics. Heck, do you ever read College Football Soundoff and its insane vitriol here?
For me, the only hope is a reconciliation between Democrats and GOP for a true education and jobs program. Enough with high loans for silly degrees of no ROI. Channel folks into dirty jobs and emerging hi-tech. Bring back a good degree of low end manufacturing for folks who don't have the ability to do better, as there will always be such folks.
We must teach interest, amortization, cash flow, balance sheets, income, and ROI. Simulating marriage, sickness, disability, market crashes, unemployment, divorce, marriage, and kids. So many who even earn cannot manage finances. We need to instill that AI and automation means owning more assets for guaranteed income.
I for one don't want such a divided society. I want to see all my friends be able to come to sports games with me. Never mind feeding and clothing their families with dignity. We're playing with fire here...fully agree with you on that.
In this day and age when so much is exaggerated and lied about by both the media and social media, what you could have is strife causing riots that spread until there is a nationwide conflagration that tears the system apart. What I am worried about is a French Revolution 1789 only 100 times worse.
You talk about sophisticated people; they frankly are blind deaf and dumb to all that does not directly concern them. They frankly are feeding the fires on both sides more than trying to put them out. Unless there is FUNDAMENTAL change this is something that will happen, Not might or maybe BUT WILL.
The ones attending games are still the majority. With the best jobs, careers, assets, influence, and power. This differs from classic revolutions where the have nots where the vast majority in extreme conditions...making it easy and natural to storm the gates and win.
In fact, it is the extremism that makes the majority haves meaner. They're constantly derided as privileged, oppressive, fragile, and un-meritorious, through a prism of identity politics. They of course dig in against entitlement and ill advised wealth confiscation and redistribution.
This is a mistake. We can't say let the lowest 1-2 tiles eat cake. Those tiles may storm, but they won't win, but languish. It's not good. Even if some dug themselves into a hole, we can meet halfway...as given our 20% of global GDP and 9% CAGR of the S&P500, it's a matter of political and cultural will.
What i wouldn't give to be 30 yrs younger and been more serious instead of just keeping most things in bonds....but that's what I was told at the time to do.
There's so much great opportunity to build your owe wealth for everyone
One-day I'll figure the patterns out.
Let the young ones in your life know about it. They reap what we sow.
What I think will happen is the have nots begin to rise up and those you describe that so many in the establishment claim are the REAL PROBLEM join them and there it is.
Rome was a republic once
“The American Republic will endure until the day Congress discovers that it can bribe the public with the public's money.”
― Alexis de Tocqueville
Just because we have a republic does not mean we will be able to keep it
All this i agree with, but the geographic are different, the states are far different than conquered peoples in the time Rome ruled , and then there's the Ceaser issue who was never voted for.
The good thing about the market is even if you are not elite you can still create your owe wealth.
The problem is most people are unaware of how to get involved
the PROBLEM is the INCREASING NUMBER of people who cannot get involved because THEY HAVE NO MONEY TO SPARE from LITTLE THINGS like RENT, FOOD, etc.
The people who feel they are on a treadmill with no hope of advancing.
THEY will be the ones that do to the US what the poor in France did in 1789
I took Latin in HS and had to translate Caesar's Gallic Wars: Commentarii de Bello Gallico. I've long studied and revisit Roman history, especially to assess why it ultimately failed. It's a deep topic, but I've distilled it to a main theme.
Rome fell because it failed to uphold a legitimate social contract for the best and brightest through merit. More people came onto the dole. Corruption passed a threshold where legitimate work could provide a living. Coincidentally, gold and silver were increasingly replaced by mass production of coins in tin and wood...resulting in high inflation, confounding the Romans when they kept printing more.
Rome increased its reliance on non-Romans and slaves. Services and contracts deteriorated. Supply chains became increasingly tenuous. Eventually it all withered, losing power, influence, unity, and commitment.
The USA has parallels but important differences. Economics is much more advanced. No hyper inflation. We're smart enough to have enough of a social contract for a critical mass...meaning the majority of tiles do okay. I say 3 of 5 in a quintile will be fine, acting against the agitation of the bottom 2.
It's convenient to blame the 1%. The oppressor. The privileged. So many labels pushing victimization narratives.
Again, I go back to 20% GDP and an @&P500 producing 9% CAGR. We have the wealth, productivity, and means to better distribute income and wealth. Not least through meritoriously getting good paying jobs, which we have plenty of. The majority engage this social contract...and will defend it against agitators who push an unjust storming of gates.
That's my perspective. I think I am right. I conclude this through personal and academic experience. If for nothing else...this subject on this ND chat board offers a blueprint on how to build wealth in our capital markets. All my life the opportunity has been there for the VAST majority of Americans.
As I said earlier, I won't say let them eat cake. I want to help challenged Americans. But let's meet halfway...with folks doing some soul searching on why they are in a socioeconomic predicament.
No I hope we are talking about Americans, and not this insane influx of the world's uneducated baby making machine, who probably don't even like this country, because that's a different problem who need to be removed asap, and not be allowed to compete against Americans (and for those who say the farmers needed them that's complete BS. I live in a AG state and its become automated, and there's something know as a work visa)
I lived off a military income for 25yrs. I worked part time when I could.
Budgeting is extremely important, and stick to it. Most places start out higher than minimum wage, and if two jobs are needed till you work your way into a position that makes you a living than that's what needs to be done. There are jobCores, ect.
Americans have done this for over a century.
Its hard sure, but evetyone can achieve it.
I don't see this country to where the masses are the underprivileged
That is alot better than picking up arms against the majority......it won't turn out well for them.
If you someone in that condition I can give you a name of a company that's nationwide, and is always looking for good workers who are looking for a career
Ok this is where I fall short
To avoid the lose from pullbacks the first of the year which took me 4 days to regain I seen there were more sale offs today so I sold not to take another big hit and, tried not to lose the gains, but to see the sale off wasn't as drastic as the beginning of the year.
Though I was looking at the patterns and thought I seen the trajectory and I guessed wrong......"GUESSING IS NOT A WINNING STRATEGY" and not having any margins doesn't help
Now its time for me to find an online courses to help me with this.
The good news i saves all my gains, bad news I misses out on more earnings....ugh
To avoid the lose from pullbacks the first of the year which took me 4 days to regain I seen there were more sale offs today so I sold not to take another big hit and, tried not to lose the gains, but to see the sale off wasn't as drastic as the beginning of the year.
Though I was looking at the patterns and thought I seen the trajectory and I guessed wrong......"GUESSING IS NOT A WINNING STRATEGY" and not having any margins doesn't help
Now its time for me to find an online courses to help me with this.
The good news i saves all my gains, bad news I misses out on more earnings....ugh
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Personally, I try to find a few companies that will lead 5-10 years from now, then buy and hold. I've been lucky and had some great gains. My full portfolio was up +140% last year. You're not going to get them all, but you don't need to.
"Let your winners ride."
This is the most efficient strategy in terms of time and returns. You don't have to kill yourself making short term moves. You're in the market...and may well beat it if you buy great companies when they're irrationally underpriced.
One thing I would add, these companies tend to be highly volatile, both up and down. So, if you are confident in the story, instead of hoping to sell before a drop, try to focus on buying the dips. Keeping in mind that you are in it for the long term. It's important to be confident in their story or it becomes more difficult to buy when the market is pushing them down.
Have fun.
Yep
Me and another poster with talking about what great tricks it would to be able to know where the bottom of the dip would be, and he responded it would be a nice trick to known the top of the gains.
I was recommended the better way to gage this is with the graphs and to get a custom to the patterns......definitely note as easy at all as it sounds. There is where those like you will aways be better at this, and good for you. I will keep grinding out and maybe one day it will all come together.
I have stocks that I am sitting on longterm, but due to family issue I need to step away from work.
I cashed out a large chunk of apple stock my brother in-law invested for me with my re-enlistment bonus in the 80's. With this time away I'm just trying to see what I can do short term with 36k to make up, and thanks to the tech run its been good, but I have limited knowledge and I hear small caps are going to be profitable in 2024...
Stay away from the Bitcion short scam.
Listen to the Schawb network this morning a guest came on an said since the bitcoin ETF has gained momentum there will be investment firms driving the price up just to short it.
I don't understand how that works, but I thought I would mention it just incase someone is interested in those ventures
Listen to the Schawb network this morning a guest came on an said since the bitcoin ETF has gained momentum there will be investment firms driving the price up just to short it.
I don't understand how that works, but I thought I would mention it just incase someone is interested in those ventures
From the end of November to today every business channel was saying the money will be in small caps, but I can't find anything in small caps that will be a market mover
Technology,, some Healthcare, and Financial institutions are the staples at this point
Technology,, some Healthcare, and Financial institutions are the staples at this point
I ignore those guys. Business fake news is the same phony bull as the political fake news outlets. See Cramer>Bear Stearns (among others). I have a few folks I follow on twitter/x and find them far more accurate.
JMHO
Should add that the good ones show up on the fake news at times. Tom Lee, Dan Ives, Danielle DiMartino Booth, and Maria Bartiromo are super.
As for small caps, the bigs were up for the last few months big time, so it makes sense they would slow and the smalls would move. But I think the whole market has been slow these first 2 weeks. You could have poured all your money into Spirit Air or iRobot, both smalls, and you'd be crying today. Find your winner, let it ride.
And Spirit continues to drop this morning
Maria Bartiromo is the only person who never talked up Small caps.
She'll bring guests on, but here herself doesn't talk them up
DIP: Gold, Silver, precious metals. But the only secure forward thinking investment is to invest your life in Jesus.
I am fully vested in Jesus Christ
It's said that as January goes so does the market.....for traders that's a bit ominous I think.
I got involved when all you needed to do was throw a dart and the stock was making money
I fear I'm going to be over my head in 2024, but I will do my diligence which is why I've been off the board the past 2 weeks.
No one thought rates were going to cut yesterday yet the pullbacks were abundant, shorting everything I was holding.
They will come back, but as an individual trader I'm on the sideline for now
