I Hope I’m Wrong … But

[BGI User 756]

maybe



Did you see the other snow bowl? Raiders @ Pats 2001. Belichek figured out that passing, not running was needed to move the ball in the second half. It was very hard to change direction on the field but not hard for Brady to throw in a straight line.

That 16-13 thriller? I remember all those 5 yard passes to the TE and Patten.

We can do that!

 

[BGI User 756]

Stats also show that running game stats improve only slightly in snow and rain....and this is attributed to reduced passing attempts. I tend to think that how individual players handle the weather matters. Rourke won't be bothered by the snow...he as demonstrated that. How Notre Dame covers his receivers matters a great deal. Can the D pressure Rourke in these conditions? He isn't particularly mobile....so does the D front gain a step or lose a step with this weather to disrupt him?

Absolutely

 

[Shakin' Down the Thunder]

The argument that the weather favors the offense is that the quarterback and receivers know their routes...and the defense has a harder time reacting in slippery conditions...giving the passing game the edge. Now, if you look at how IU operated in snow against Purdue...there is some validity to that. The difference is, this is Notre Dame's defense...so how much gap is erased? The same is true with ND's offense....they know where they are going to. So weather conditions can favor the offenses.

IU being able to move the ball against Purdue doesn't impress me. Purdue had a high school defense.

The offense has the advantage regardless of weather. Offense is just as susceptible to slipping as the defense is. If it was truly advantageous to pass then why as BGI posted, do we see worse pass production in bad weather?

 

[Shakin' Down the Thunder]

Notre Dame lost to NIU because they didn't show up.

That just proves my point. The game is unpredictable regardless of weather.

 

[Telx1]

I’m getting a bad feeling about this game, especially with the weather.

Especially since the initial spread was about 8.5 and it’s now about 7.5-7.0

Indiana has tremendous motivation on their side.

Time will tell

Pat,
I thought the initial line was crazy. Our strengths against their strengths, our record and ranking against theirs, elimination of cold weather advantage, and a David vs Goliath storyline has always felt like a close matchup to me. If we still had Botelho and Traore healthy and playing, I would feel more confident. Their qb reminds a lot of the Louisville qb, exceptional when given enough time; and average when under pressure. We need cross and miles to get great penetration up the middle, and Golden needs to come up with blitzing schemes that get to the qb before he unloads. Would love to see Young have a breakout games from SDE to get edge pressure.
Running against their defense will be a challenge as they play to stop the run, and will expose their pass defense even more against us. Evans has finally arrived, and he should be a primary target to force their linebackers off the line. But we need other receivers to step up, and Leonard to deliver. We might see a lot of freshman rb Young in the two set backfield if the OL needs help protecting Leonard. I expect Leonard to break off some good runs against their defense.
Every game I want to see more misdirection, and we’ve seen some uptick in this, but I want to see more against a swarming defense that can over commit.
Turnovers as in most games can decide the game. It’s going to be cold and somewhat windy with the windchill factor in the teens in the second half. We absolutely cannot lose the turnover battle.
So, tons of variables with this game and matchup. High anxiety and pins and needles for me, until we win the damn game. If close, our FG kicker issues might be a difference maker that costs us this game. I feel like breaking out my Irish whiskey to calm my nerves. What a GREAT day for Indiana sports. Go Irish ☘️

 

[Patrish]

maybe



Did you see the other snow bowl? Raiders @ Pats 2001. Belichek figured out that passing, not running was needed to move the ball in the second half. It was very hard to change direction on the field but not hard for Brady to throw in a straight line.

But doesn’t favor the QB, or completion percentage. The receivers can’t throw it to themselves

It does favor the QB because his receivers get better separation

 

[Patrish]

ND not motivated ? First home playoff game ever ? Comparing it to NIU is laughable. ND was coming off a huge road win against a team they should have beaten rather handily. The weather looks fine. Not supposed to snow after early afternoon. I hope it is windy though as that will effect the Indiana passing attack way more than temperatures in the 20s. I haven't felt this good about a big game since FSU in 93.

Where did I say that Notre Dame wasn’t motivated?

Cite that for me !

 

[Patrish]

Pat,
I thought the initial line was crazy. Our strengths against their strengths, our record and ranking against theirs, elimination of cold weather advantage, and a David vs Goliath storyline has always felt like a close matchup to me. If we still had Botelho and Traore healthy and playing, I would feel more confident. Their qb reminds a lot of the Louisville qb, exceptional when given enough time; and average when under pressure. We need cross and miles to get great penetration up the middle, and Golden needs to come up with blitzing schemes that get to the qb before he unloads. Would love to see Young have a breakout games from SDE to get edge pressure.
Running against their defense will be a challenge as they play to stop the run, and will expose their pass defense even more against us. Evans has finally arrived, and he should be a primary target to force their linebackers off the line. But we need other receivers to step up, and Leonard to deliver. We might see a lot of freshman rb Young in the two set backfield if the OL needs help protecting Leonard. I expect Leonard to break off some good runs against their defense.
Every game I want to see more misdirection, and we’ve seen some uptick in this, but I want to see more against a swarming defense that can over commit.
Turnovers as in most games can decide the game. It’s going to be cold and somewhat windy with the windchill factor in the teens in the second half. We absolutely cannot lose the turnover battle.
So, tons of variables with this game and matchup. High anxiety and pins and needles for me, until we win the damn game. If close, our FG kicker issues might be a difference maker that costs us this game. I feel like breaking out my Irish whiskey to calm my nerves. What a GREAT day for Indiana sports. Go Irish ☘️

👍

 

[Patrish]

Wow, some information that has absolutely nothing to do with the game, thanks.

You think our current players who have never played for a title are less motivated because previous players have? What a bunch of BS Haha.

I didn’t say that ND was less motivated, I said that Indiana has more motivation for a variety of reasons

 

[Patrish]

maybe



Did you see the other snow bowl? Raiders @ Pats 2001. Belichek figured out that passing, not running was needed to move the ball in the second half. It was very hard to change direction on the field but not hard for Brady to throw in a straight line.

Even if that's true, that doesn't mean it's favorable to pass. You ignored my comments about the QB having a harder time passing, as setting his feet is difficult and the ball is wet, so it's harder to get a grip. WRs have a harder time catching the ball, as the ball is wet. The timing between QB and WRs are off. WRs are just as susceptible to slipping on the wet grass as any other player. So who is the person that "know a lot about football" that says passing is an advantage to running the ball in bad weather? Never mind the stats that BGI just posted about passing production decreasing. That can't possibly be true.

You’re talking about rain, I’m talking about field conditions
Have someone explain the difference to you?
Since the QB isn’t running at full speed when he sets up in the pocket, footing for him isn’t that much of a problem

No, wide receivers are not as susceptible to slipping because they know where they’re going, whereas the DB’s have to react to the WR’s, making them more prone to slipping

 

[Holycrossover3]

I didn’t say that ND was less motivated, I said that Indiana has more motivation for a variety of reasons

Lol. Uhhhh if someone has “more” motivation it implies someone else has “less.” Maybe you meant to say they have more reasons to be motivated?

Knowing the amount of motivation each team has is completely made up in your head at this point.

I mean maybe ND was “more motivated” than Bama in the 2012 Natty. Maybe motivation only gets you so far.

 

[Patrish]

Lol. Uhhhh if someone has “more” motivation it implies someone else has “less.” Maybe you meant to say they have more reasons to be motivated?

Knowing the amount of motivation each team has is completely made up in your head at this point.

I mean maybe ND was “more motivated” than Bama in the 2012 Natty. Maybe motivation only gets you so far.

No it doesn’t.
Doesn’t the cumulative effect of having more reasons to be motivated result in you being more motivated

For starters, Indiana has been a Notre Dame’s shadow for decades, ergo that’s additional motivation for Indiana to beat ND.

Being an underdog, inherently creates more motivation

While I would love to see a blowout, I’m concerned about this game

 

[Irishjohn68]

I’m getting a bad feeling about this game, especially with the weather.

Especially since the initial spread was about 8.5 and it’s now about 7.5-7.0

Indiana has tremendous motivation on their side.

Time will tell

I wish you would shut the hell up.

 

[Shakin' Down the Thunder]

You’re talking about rain, I’m talking about field conditions
Have someone explain the difference to you?
Since the QB isn’t running at full speed when he sets up in the pocket, footing for him isn’t that much of a problem

No, wide receivers are not as susceptible to slipping because they know where they’re going, whereas the DB’s have to react to the WR’s, making them more prone to slipping

I never mentioned rain. And even if you want to use the argument of "field conditions" it still is not advantageous to pass as opposed to run. It's obvious you never played WR. I played WR in college. It's much harder to execute a passing attack in rain, snow, or lousy field conditions. I have yet to see data from anyone that suggest bad field conditions or bad weather make it more beneficial to pass, as opposed to good weather or good field conditions. And the argument of DBs having to react to WRs who know where they're going is a moot point. That happens regardless of weather. I never heard of any evidence from anyone that knowing where you're going makes you less susceptible to slipping. Ridiculous.

 

[Irishjohn68]

I know our QB struggles throwing the ball but as long it’s not windy should be ok.

 

[Patrish]

Be honest !

On whose program would a loss have a more catastrophic impact on ?

Notre Dame’s or Indiana’s

 

[Patrish]

I never mentioned rain. And even if you want to use the argument of "field conditions" it still is not advantageous to pass as opposed to run. It's obvious you never played WR. I played WR in college. It's much harder to execute a passing attack in rain, snow, or lousy field conditions. I have yet to see data from anyone that suggest bad field conditions or bad weather make it more beneficial to pass, as opposed to good weather or good field conditions. And the argument of DBs having to react to WRs who know where they're going is a moot point. That happens regardless of weather. I never heard of any evidence from anyone that knowing where you're going makes you less susceptible to slipping. Ridiculous.

I never said it was more advantageous to pass versus run, that’s your misguided narrative

 

[Patrish]

I wish you would shut the hell up.

WHY ? Am I using words that are too big for you to understand ?

 

[NDblitz]

I’m getting a bad feeling about this game, especially with the weather.

Especially since the initial spread was about 8.5 and it’s now about 7.5-7.0

Indiana has tremendous motivation on their side.

Time will tell

Compared to NDs lack of motivation?

 

[Irish_inPSU]

I think ND wins 31-13 simply by putting on their uniforms and showing up to kick off.

This is a pretty one sided matchup on paper.

Completely agree, but NIU still haunts the back of my mind. That was also very one sided on paper. Nothing taken for granted... they need to be all business, take of the ball and beat them into submission on the field.

 

[banmate6]

Today is the day. I am confident Notre Dame is the better team. If the Irish play their A game, they should win, outside really bad luck.

The most important person is Marcus Freeman. It's GENERALLY on him to ensure Notre Dame plays its best. It's a big game and big moment...when you find out who you truly are.

The key in terms of details is a combination of RL, the OL, and Denbrock making the right play calls. ND must be able to establish the run game. Keep them honest with some play action...and maybe, just maybe, some deep opportunity, where RL still remains unproven.

I am confident the D will do its usual job. Keeping the opponent to lower scores. Indiana is not USC offensively.

We will see. Can't wait.

 

[christophero]

This is definitely a big game for ND. Fair or not, there is a perception out there that we don't win big games the last 20 years or so. This is a great chance to advance in the playoff and I think we do.

 

[Shakin' Down the Thunder]

I never said it was more advantageous to pass versus run, that’s your misguided narrative

I asked if it's more advantageous to pass than run in bad weather. You said "Bad footing gives the receivers the edge.." what are we supposed to conclude from your comment???

 

[christophero]

Start a thread, argue with everyone who comments on the thread.

 

[burmafrd1943]

We should win this game by ten points.

IF we lose it, we deserve all the scorn we shall receive.

 

[Irish_inPSU]

We should win this game by ten points.

IF we lose it, we deserve all the scorn we shall receive.

You're not wrong...

On paper we win this game by at least 10. but as I said before on here, Indiana really is playing with house money and i believe less pressure is on them than it is on ND.

 

[burmafrd1943]

You're not wrong...

On paper we win this game by at least 10. but as I said before on here, Indiana really is playing with house money and i believe less pressure is on them than it is on ND.

This is where Freeman has to stand tall; get the team ready and do not make mistakes in the game

 

[Zorich 88]

I’m getting a bad feeling about this game, especially with the weather.

Especially since the initial spread was about 8.5 and it’s now about 7.5-7.0

Indiana has tremendous motivation on their side.

Time will tell

Tremendous motivation on their side??? You can't get motivated for the first ever playoff game at Notre Dame stadium then you should not be playing in this game. Motivation or lack there of will not be an issue.

 

[THUNDERSTRUCK111]

I think the snow is done for today. So I think the field will be possibly wet but not going to be snowy conditions during the game. If any has seen the field yet I’m curious what it looks like is it being dryed out etc. ????

 

[Irish_inPSU]

All I can say is that if this stadium isn't rocking tonight, and if there is a lot of red in this crowd, i'm going to be pissed. I don't think the players will need any extra incentive to be fired up for this game, but historically, ND stadium and its crowds are nothing for an opponent to be worried about. Hope that changes tonight.

 

[tbonesays]

Notre Dame lost to NIU because they didn't show up.

Is that the extent of the analysis on that game? I never read a good explanation.

That 16-13 thriller? I remember all those 5 yard passes to the TE and Patten.

We can do that!

And the Pats caught so many deflected passes I thought they might have drawn it up in the play.

I never mentioned rain. And even if you want to use the argument of "field conditions" it still is not advantageous to pass as opposed to run. It's obvious you never played WR. I played WR in college. It's much harder to execute a passing attack in rain, snow, or lousy field conditions. I have yet to see data from anyone that suggest bad field conditions or bad weather make it more beneficial to pass, as opposed to good weather or good field conditions. And the argument of DBs having to react to WRs who know where they're going is a moot point. That happens regardless of weather. I never heard of any evidence from anyone that knowing where you're going makes you less susceptible to slipping. Ridiculous.

My understanding is that it is the wind that messes with the passing game. Regular precipitation does not. Am I wrong?

 

[burmafrd1943]

Is that the extent of the analysis on that game? I never read a good explanation.

And the Pats caught so many deflected passes I thought they might have drawn it up in the play.

My understanding is that it is the wind that messes with the passing game. Regular precipitation does not. Am I wrong?

how about a slick ball?
how about wet field or frozen field and slipping and sliding everywhere?

 

[Pennick4]

I didn’t say that ND was less motivated, I said that Indiana has more motivation for a variety of reasons

I would say the team with more motivation due to a chance for a National title is ND!

 

[mcdermottrules]

Yeah, what do those guys in Vegas know ?

You can’t honestly believe that Vegas always gets the spread right, let alone the outcome

 

[sjb75]

Yes, and especially with regard to turnovers

I was clear in stating that the receivers have an advantage when field conditions are compromised, that’s irrefutable

Bad weather usually causes turnovers, which are unpredictable, and turnovers influence outcomes

Not really
What happens to your percentage when the rain or snow stops, but the field is in bad condition

Then bet against Vegas and let us know how you do

Poor “Field conditions” favor the receivers, that’s indisputable !

Nice try at trying to change the narrative

I was specific in referring to field conditions

When field conditions are compromised, it favors the receivers significantly

The opening line was never nine points

I just see Indiana as an incredibly motivated team, kinda like NIU

That’s not a significant differential

The only relevant number is the final score

29-22,

But that was based upon the forecast when the o/u was established

Please post more often.

 

[Patrish]

You can’t honestly believe that Vegas always gets the spread right, let alone the outcome

Vegas only gets it right often enough to build Billion dollar Casino-Hotels and fly gamblers into town on jets and comp them with suites, limos and all the food and beverages they want.

So I guess Vegas doesn’t know what they’re doing

 

[Pennick4]

Vegas only gets it right often enough to build Billion dollar Casino-Hotels and fly gamblers into town on jets and comp them with suites, limos and all the food and beverages they want.

So I guess Vegas doesn’t know what they’re doing

Tonight would say maybe they don't!

 

[stu4don]

dude! could you have been MORE WRONG WE ARE ****ING GOOD. ENJOY IT

 

[Patrish]

Tonight would say maybe they don't!

Another 2020 hindsight genius

 

[Patrish]

dude! could you have been MORE WRONG WE ARE ****ING GOOD. ENJOY IT

Another 20-20 hindsight genius

I’ll bet you weren’t thinking that when it looked like Indiana was going to score early until there was an interception on the 2 yard line