4-4-3
- Thread starter mrwigglesby21
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Fair point, but I’m not sure it’s applicable as an equivalent success measure.
In the NFL, more losses come with the territory, and, theoretically, teams that make the playoffs with 10-6 records can WIN THE SUPER BOWL. In fact, it’s happened twice – i.e., two teams winning all of the marbles with 62.5% winning percentages.
In college, that kind of record is INSTANTLY DISQUALIFYING from championship consideration regardless of how college football SUPREMACY is being – or has in the past been – calculated.
In other words, to be successful in college, you have to win at the very least on a consistent basis about 75% of your games. And to win championships, you can’t have – if memory serves – BUT ONE LOSS. I mean, has any college team ever won the NC since 1936 with two losses? I can’t think of one.
In comparison, Noll’s winning percentage was 57% while Cowher and Tomlin logged in at 62%. Impressive by NFL and other professional sports standards, but at ND, those numbers will get you FIRED as Terry Brennan sadly found out after winning 64% of his games from 54 through 58.
Again, the success standard in CFB is MUCH HIGHER as there’s far LESS MARGIN FOR ERROR. You don’t get the chance to GET HOT in the playoffs. You have to be hot ALL YEAR.
“My God, the guy coverted to CATHOLICISM!”
Oh, the horror.^^^
And describing Devine as competent is another example of someone not really knowing the whole story, even though they cite old past ND history as if they’re an expert. If you ask his former players, “competent” wouldn’t jump to mind. He was a goof, (& there are numerous stories & locker room talks proving that) but at least he won a title, something this poster’s love interest down in Baton Rouge couldn’t do in 12 yrs.
Oh, the horror.^^^
And describing Devine as competent is another example of someone not really knowing the whole story, even though they cite old past ND history as if they’re an expert. If you ask his former players, “competent” wouldn’t jump to mind. He was a goof, (& there are numerous stories & locker room talks proving that) but at least he won a title, something this poster’s love interest down in Baton Rouge couldn’t do in 12 yrs.
There is a kernel of truth to some of that, but it is really misleading to try and compare won/loss records and winning percentages between CFB and the NFL. The NFL is set up for parity; CFB is not. You win the Super Bowl, you get the toughest schedule in the league the next season, plus the lowest draft pick. Truly on any given Sunday, anyone can win in the NFL. That is demonstrated time and again in the NFL. While Appalachian State vs. UM (or Marshall vs. ND) games happen on occasion in CFB, you get many more beatdowns in CFB. In college football, teams can (and frequently do) load up their schedule with cupcakes. Teams cannot do that in the NFL, because the League, not individual teams, set the schedule. The NFL draft is set up to be fair; in CFB, on the other hand, the really good teams are able to stockpile the best talent, leading to more disparity. Give the Kansas City Chiefs 5 or 6 first round draft picks every year (the equivalent of what Bama has been able to do the last decade or so), and you will probably see a dynasty.
So the measure of success for a head coach in the NFL is divisional titles won, playoff appearances and games won, and Super Bowl appearances and championships won. While CFB now has a playoff system, there is simply no comparison between the college football playoff system and the NFL playoffs.
So I would counter that winning percentages are simply not a valid comparison between NFL and CFB head coaches.
The point here is that the Pittsburgh Steelers have gambled in 3 straight hires with a young (mid-30's) head coach with only a year or two as a defensive coordinator, and no previous head coaching experience. Sound familiar? By anyone's measure, those 3 hires have worked out quite well for the Steelers. While the ability to recruit is one stark difference between the NFL and CFB, I think most people will agree that recruiting is one of Marcus Freeman's strong suits. Will MF work out for ND as Chuck Noll, Bill Cowher, and Mike Tomlin have for the Pittsburgh Steelers? I don't know, but when you find a guy who you think is the real deal, you take a shot with him, even if the traditional metrics say you are taking a risk. I think that is what Swarbrick did with MF.
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So you're a convert now, huh? And you weren't always like that, right? Somewhere along the line I guess you figured you had to get on the BK-bashing train. It was just the prudent thing to do. Did you have to convince yourself, and go through some sort of process? Or did you just wake up one day and you realized just how much you really resent BK.....
You were better before, if I'm recalling correct, when you weren't bashing BK. But I think you're too late to the party. And with every game LSU keeps winning it's going to get less and less satisfying, and your BK-bashing brethren are going to be less and less enthusiastic about it. Except for the real bitter lifers. And you don't want to become one of those. And I truly mean that, from one ND fan to another.....
Help me get more numbers.
Like I said, statistics can help illuminate and round things out.
For all you wrote about the Steelers, you didn't assess enough of the data. Never mind running some basic analysis. I get your implied point about an eye test, but numbers matter too.
The book Outliers explained how playing in an age group certain impacted your chances of making it pro. Hockey players born earlier in the year tended to play with younger players. Funny, as I see this driving USA youth soccer, where they weed out players in age competitions.
Not in Croatia for soccer. They eye test but, because of statistics, actually give between 18-24 years for a full assessment. Mind you, a player gets cut if he is really inferior...but a small 5'7' frail Luka Modric, one the best midfielders ever, did not get cut because he was given a chance to develop, supported throughout.
Again, all because of statistics. Croatia assessed, for whatever reason, Croatian players develop later physically. Just saying. Maybe some basic analysis with me running modern classification and prediction algorithms says something about coaching success?
Probably the obvious. Let's see.
The difference is that a committee decides who can win the NC whereas in the NFL it‘s the play on the field that wins the SB.
Part of the reason is that in the NFL more than 4 teams qualify for the playoffs based upon their records and not what an unqualified committee thinks
All well and good.
But why would anyone think that Freeman was the REAL DEAL from a coaching standpoint? ON WHAT BASIS? And who is doing the THINKING? ND's admin? Vs. some NFL team's braintrust?
It's one thing when a professional organization that has a strong committed ownership family is doing the ASSESSING. And as an org, the Steelers as you point out, DO HAVE A STRONG TRACK RECORD picking coaches.
But it's another thing if it's ND, the org that hired Brennan, Faust, Davie and Weis with ZERO college head coaching experience. Do you think the people and the THOUGHT PROCESSES involved in THOSE DECISIONS bear any material resemblance to those which guided the STEELERS? Because I DON'T.
Part of Freeman's appeal to ND -- and Swarbrick has indicated as much -- is the OVERALL IMAGE he projects.
But what about his CHOPS?
Are you happy with the SCHIZOPHRENIC PERFORMANCE today against Navy?
Did you see the EYE OF THE TIGER in Freeman's expression at ANY POINT during that game? I've NEVER seen it.
I see the man as an ASPIRATIONAL SYMBOL.
AN ND CONCEPT.
He has enough talent to win the majority of his games, but I don't see a 75% to 85% career-numbers winning coach in Marcus Freeman. And THAT's what matters in CFB. There are no SUPER BOWLS or other meaningful outcomes for 6-LOSS teams.
Just two losses and you're NOWHERE NEAR THE PRIZE.
True enough.
But my point is that no one gets ANYWHERE NEAR a championship in college football with more than ONE LOSS. Which means that you have to coach to a much higher standard week to week as there's virtually NO MARGIN FOR ERROR.
So, in a sense, CFB championships are also DECIDED ON THE FIELD as the playoff structure encompasses, IN EFFECT, the ENTIRE SEASON.
And my sense of MF based on two disastrous losses and now two failures for the team to SHOW UP IN THE SECOND HALF -- and for whatever reason -- is that he's not someone we can simply ASSUME will win ONE GAME OR LESS A SEASON on ANYTHING APPROACHING a regular basis.
You sir should be nominated as the 2nd dumbest poster on this forum behind SouthFloridaIrish.
If what you say is truth then that means ND should have fired Kelly in Year 5, 6, or 7. He was no where near 1-loss in any of those years with 100% players he recruited.
I don't know what Swarbrick's thought selection process was when he hired MF. None of us do. Swarbrick has acknowledged working closely with Fr. Jenkins on the hire, but I am not sure he has ever stated who else was closely involved. Maybe it was just JS and Fr. Jenkins. And while Brennan, Faust, Davie, and Weis all ultimately failed as head coaches, those picks didn't occur on Swarbrick's watch. Swarbrick was responsible for bringing Brian Kelly on board, and I think even you would acknowledge that BK was a good hire.
I like the hire. You don't, and that's fine. You have explained your reasons, and I respect that. But at least give it a chance to play out before throwing Freeman under the train.
And no, I didn't enjoy today's schizophrenic performance vs. Navy. Great first half, God awful second half. I thought there might be a little bit of a letdown after last week's beatdown of Clemson, but what happened today was disappointing. I expect it won't be the last hiccup we get from a Freeman coached team, but I am hopeful he will get things sorted out.
You’re dead wrong
How do you explain 33 rushes for 38 Yards.
The OLine couldn’t protect Pyne
The OLine failed today, not Pyne
today Pyne was 17 of 21 for 269 yards, a CP of 81 %, a YPA of 12.8 and 4 TD’s, a great passing performance.
Good points
What time frame would you assign to that “chance”
That’s all we can do, is hope.
But I don’t like hope as a strategy !
ND is 7-3, if they win out and win the bowl game they finish 10-3. Not much of a drop off from 2021 as 1st year coach with a backup QB and a highly suspect OC.
No I’m not wrong. Pyne is 3rd string at best. Greatest passing performance against a 3-6 Navy team ? Lol. This was not a good Navy team. Navy came at him all second half and he couldn’t do anything. He is very limited in his ability. To be fair, Rees play calling in the second half was atrocious. But I will stick with my premis. If ND had a good QB they’d be 9-1 right now.
You‘re another moron !
If Navy isn’t a good team how did they come close to beating the # 20 team in the country, a team that just beat the # 4 team in the country.
he went 17 of 21.
He couldn’t do anything because the OLine. couldnt protect him and the coaches didn’t call plays to neutralize the blitz.
The NY Giants proved that if you don’t give the GOAT time and you put him on his back, the greatest QB in all of football won’t be effective.
IF, IF, IF THAT’s all I hear from the whiners !
Last I looked, it’s a team game.
Tell me how the poor running game is PYNE’S fault
Ok. There is really no need to name call. Have I ever done that ? I haven’t. You don’t like my take. Fine. I don’t agree with you. But never ever once did I name call any poster in this board. Never ! You have your view and I have mine. We can just leave it at that.
OK, I agree, but you have to think of the word “moron” as a term of endearment !
We have contrary opinions.
But Pyne’s stats are the cold hard facts
There's a VERY TELLING Swarbrick interview on how and why Freeman was hired. If I can find it, I will post it. Among other things, Swarbrick -- AS I RECALL IT -- said that it was more important that Freeman was the right guy -- which Swarbrick felt he was -- than whether he went 12-0 or 8-4.
My TAKEAWAY from that was that Swarbrick was placing CHARACTER above WINNING PERCENTAGE -- at least in YEAR ONE. Maybe, he was just being a REALIST, but I'm not one who wishes to concede EVEN ONE SEASON in return for some HOPED FOR CHARACTEROLOGICAL GREATER GOOD. Just win, baby. And do it now.
Swarbrick also noted that Freeman was the PLAYERS' CHOICE, citing THAT as an additional reason THE MOVE MADE SENSE.
REALLY?
As for Brennan, Faust, Davie and Weis, my point there was that it was ND itself, in its PERIODIC QUESTIONABLE WISDOM RE FOOTBALL HIRES, that was the CULPRIT. How many times does this movie have to play before someone at least SENSES the STRONG POSSIBILITY that it may not end as happily as people would HOPE.
(I mean, where's ND's INSTITUTIONAL MEMORY?)
But then, isn't HOPE what the entire FREEMAN GAMBIT has been about? There's certainly no IRONCLAD CASE TO BE MADE for it or even anything approaching the MEDIUM-LEVEL CALCULATED RISKS that the Kelly and Holtz hires represented. Despite how things turned out, NEITHER of those was a sure thing EITHER.
All I'm saying is -- if you're going to hire a football coach at a HIGH-PROFILE PLACE, such as ND -- at least PLAY THE PERCENTAGES.
As for giving Freeman a chance, WHAT OTHER CHOICE DO I HAVE? I was merely responding to your post on how the Steelers have done well hiring first-time coaches, pointing out in response -- ONCE AGAIN -- the ND hasn't. And Freeman isn't with the Steelers. He's with ND.
And, as I see it, THAT'S NOT THE SAME THING.
No, I don't think it is fair at all to say that that the Freeman hire was based entirely upon hope. Rather, I think Swarbrick went with his intuition or gut instinct, whatever you want to call it, and there is a difference between that and hope. With hope, you are simply wishing for an outcome, With intuition or gut instinct, you make a choice based upon the cognitive or predictive data that your brain processes. As you suggest, there was more risk involved with the Freeman hire than there was with the Kelly and Holtz hires, but to characterize Swarbrick's selection process as being based merely upon hope is, I believe, a gross mischaracterization. Maybe, as you suggest, it might have been smarter for Swarbrick to play the percentages and hire a coach with previous head coaching experience, but for better or worse, something Swarbrick saw in Freeman caused him to make a play that ran counter to the percentages. Many posters here don't like Swarbrick--I have no idea if you are among them--and while he has his faults, being stupid isn't one of them.
And I was merely responding to your post (and that of other posters here) that picking a first-time head coach with no previous head coaching experience is a gambit doomed for failure. It has worked out pretty well for the Steelers. ND hasn't had the same success playing that card, but let's give Freeman a chance here.
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I feel no antipathy towards Swarbrick or, for the record, Freeman either. But I fear that Swarbrick may have fallen into THE SAME TRAP that a number of his predecessors did.
To me, picking untested coaches is like picking a claiming horse to run in the money in a STAKES RACE. Intuition is one thing, but where's the DATA? And if that isn't HOPE-HEAVY REASONING, I don't know WHAT IS.
Again, I have NO CHOICE but to give Freeman his chance, and if he MAKES IT, I will ACKNOWLEDGE IT. But in the meantime, I'll also continue to HIGHLIGHT and hence DRAW ATTENTION TO whatever ineptitude I perceive in how he performs, none of which will have ANY EFFECT on his HAVING THAT CHANCE.
