4-4-3

[banmate6]

Golson is right and you are wrong. You are doing a uni variable analysis assuming past experience as a predictor for success. It’s incorrect. The fact is most coaches are unsuccessful and only a few are, and there are several factors that go into that. The other fact is that if you have past experience and you ascend to a better job it’s BECAUSE you have had success so you are already dealing with a limited and biased sample size. None of that matters to you because you have a narrative and you are backing into the analysis.

I am actually now inputting a spreadsheet which I will input into a database and run a few prediction algorithms. I'll start with simple enough regressions...dependent variable = winning %, independent variables = total years coaching, years head coaching experience, wins, losses, ties, age, start year, end year.

I will add classification as well. Maybe there is a correlation based on era, age, even education if that is added, within some groups...successful coaches clustering based on some factors? We can even throw in some factor analysis, eliminating factors that could be added to a model.

I'll do it for all ND coaches all time. If somebody wants to give data, we can add more. It will be a fun exercise. I do this kind of work anyways, maybe I can demo it for my customer? I'll do this in python using the usual freely available functions. I can post it here if anybody wants a crack.



Let's see what we can cook up. Again, statistics are statistics...let's see.

 

[Get Nasty]

No, not a new defensive alignment we should run - looking for that nuanced board-poster of ours. You've been rather boisterous in your disagreement with the MF hire. I'm curious, does last night's showing change your opinion at all regarding MF and his future with ND? Also, where would you rank MF's win over Clemson with Kelly's big wins at ND?

Kelly certainly showed yesterday if given the opportunity to hit the portal like he wants he can make really good things happen.

I'm not who you are referencing but I have been very critical of MF and Rees. With that said, I did state over and over that I thought MF had a chance to be a much better HC than DC because I think he's a great leader and people are pulled to him. I don't think he's great X's and O's wise.

Big wins Freeman vs Kelly I'd put Clemson 2020, Michigan 2018, oklahoma 2012 ahead of Saturdays win. But to dominate both lines vs a top 5 team is very very impressive. I just think all 3 of those teams were better than this years clemson team. But we dominated this years clemson team.

The key now is to dominate to bad teams in Navy and Boston College. Don't play down.

Also, we must get better QB play. I can't even review WRs with how bad Pyne is playing, other than styles drops.

 

[NDDadx3]

I am actually now inputting a spreadsheet which I will input into a database and run a few prediction algorithms. I'll start with simple enough regressions...dependent variable = winning %, independent variables = total years coaching, years head coaching experience, wins, losses, ties, age, start year, end year.

I will add classification as well. Maybe there is a correlation based on era, age, even education if that is added, within some groups...successful coaches clustering based on some factors? We can even throw in some factor analysis, eliminating factors that could be added to a model.

I'll do it for all ND coaches all time. If somebody wants to give data, we can add more. It will be a fun exercise. I do this kind of work anyways, maybe I can demo it for my customer? I'll do this in python using the usual freely available functions. I can post it here if anybody wants a crack.



Let's see what we can cook up. Again, statistics are statistics...let's see.

Analyze more, post less … great idea!

and remember if the map and the ground don’t agree then the map is wrong.

You sound qualified to be our board statistician.

Back at ya

 

[banmate6]

Analyze more, post less … great idea!

and remember if the map and the ground don’t agree then the map is wrong.

You sound qualified to be our board statistician.

Back at ya

I'm curious, that's all.

Believe me, I do this for a living and am the 1st to say statistics have their limits.

Whatever is predicted...and I'll let unsupervised machine learning do the prediction...what will it really tell us.

I agree with Golson and Dadx that a coach can coach...but stats can illuminate who will succeed and when...not perfectly, maybe not at all.

Again, let's see.

 

[tkirish]

I can understand the skepticism. Kelly was a really good coach for ND. Did not have a lot of success against top competition. Why ? Well simply put, the top teams, we all know who they are, simply had better overall talent and depth. That is not to say ND players weren't talented, they were. Those teams like Clemson. OSU and Bama were three deep at most every position with top end talent. If you follow recruiting, you would see ND offered many of the elite players those other schools had. He and his staff were unable to close on many of those top players. If MF and his staff can bring in those élite players, that's half the battle. the other half is coaching. The jury is still out on both.

So to suggest or project ND cannot have success and be a dominant force I think is not intellectually accurate. It is one thing not being able to get elite prospects due to restrictions. It is another issue when you offer an elite prospect and not be able to get him to sign. Again, time will tell if Freeman and his staff can upgrade the talent over the next three years. If they do, and are able to coach them up, then I believe you will see a very different team than we've seen for many many years. We have to wait and see how things play out.

 

[savvyandsassier]

I'm curious, that's all.

Believe me, I do this for a living and am the 1st to say statistics have their limits.

Whatever is predicted...and I'll let unsupervised machine learning do the prediction...what will it really tell us.

I agree with Golson and Dadx that a coach can coach...but stats can illuminate who will succeed and when...not perfectly, maybe not at all.

Again, let's see.

I don't know, would this be any worse than the 'stars matter' pseudo debate? You mean when you have better, higher-class athletes and players on your team, across the board by position, year after year, you tend to win more often than the teams that don't? Who would have thunk it??? I mean I never would have believed it, but the stats just don't lie....

Sounds like it's similar. Money talks and bullshit walks at the end of the day, and I suppose it doesn't really matter too much what the statistics would appear to predict on this subject. As in you don't really need much in the way of state of the art metrics or analytics for something like this. You're either going to take a chance on a high flyer like MF or not, with a pretty full breadth of awareness, I suppose, that he might totally fail, presumably on account of being so inexperienced, and you know that much going in. The farthest I'd go is to say, were I a professional administrator with no real hi-tech number crunching experience, is that maybe I'd be surprised to learn, after thorough analysis, that young, rookie coaches with a profile about like MF's end up doing better than you might have thought. And it probably wouldn't affect my decision too much. As I'm already aware of the essential risk, and it just comes down to how much I believe in MF. And the stats don't somehow imbue him with more key experience than he actually has.

Isn't that what you guys are talking about, what the numbers really tell us about coaches like MF, and their true chances for success, when you really delve deep? I guess if MF doesn't end up being successful, you can always cover you ass, and say hey, I was just trusting the stats....

 

[NDDadx3]

I don't know, would this be any worse than the 'stars matter' pseudo debate? You mean when you have better, higher-class athletes and players on your team, across the board by position, year after year, you tend to win more often than the teams that don't? Who would have thunk it??? I mean I never would have believed it, but the stats just don't lie....

Sounds like it's similar. Money talks and bullshit walks at the end of the day, and I suppose it doesn't really matter too much what the statistics would appear to predict on this subject. As in you don't really need much in the way of state of the art metrics or analytics for something like this. You're either going to take a chance on a high flyer like MF or not, with a pretty full breadth of awareness, I suppose, that he might totally fail, presumably on account of being so inexperienced, and you know that much going in. The farthest I'd go is to say, were I a professional administrator with no real hi-tech number crunching experience, is that maybe I'd be surprised to learn, after thorough analysis, that young, rookie coaches with a profile about like MF's end up doing better than you might have thought. And it probably wouldn't affect my decision too much. As I'm already aware of the essential risk, and it just comes down to how much I believe in MF. And the stats don't somehow imbue him with more key experience than he actually has.

Isn't that what you guys are talking about, what the numbers really tell us about coaches like MF, and their true chances for success, when you really delve deep? I guess if MF doesn't end up being successful, you can always cover you ass, and say hey, I was just trusting the stats....

This is the moneyball debate … there are statistical predictors of success and there are heuristics and people will argue about which one is “better” … simple eye test and subscribing to widely held beliefs creates a self fulfilling project or confirmation bias. If you want to see a really educational and entertaining movie about this watch Alpha Go … it’s amazing where computers can out think humans and where they cannot. I hope you see this for the actual serious response it’s meant to be.

 

[savvyandsassier]

This is the moneyball debate … there are statistical predictors of success and there are heuristics and people will argue about which one is “better” … simple eye test and subscribing to widely held beliefs creates a self fulfilling project or confirmation bias. If you want to see a really educational and entertaining movie about this watch Alpha Go … it’s amazing where computers can out think humans and where they cannot. I hope you see this for the actual serious response it’s meant to be.

I've seen that movie about AlphaGo, and computers don't outthink humans, computers don't think at all. I know it seems like they do, because they were designed, however ingeniously, to do something that resembles thinking, or at least what we like to think thinking is, even though human/animal intelligence and consciousness is totally not at all understood.

I figure it will be one day, but it certainly isn't so far. And I feel entirely confident in declaring that much as a matter of fact even though I have no special computer science knowledge. In any case, I'm just waiting for when play-calling is all done by algorithm. Seems like the sort of task that would be perfect for these intelligence simulators.

 

[NDDadx3]

I've seen that movie about AlphaGo, and computers don't outthink humans, computers don't think at all. I know it seems like they do, because they were designed, however ingeniously, to do something that resembles thinking, or at least what we like to think thinking is, even though human/animal intelligence and consciousness is totally not at all understood.

I figure it will be one day, but it certainly isn't so far. And I feel entirely confident in declaring that much as a matter of fact even though I have no special computer science knowledge. In any case, I'm just waiting for when play-calling is all done by algorithm. Seems like the sort of task that would be perfect for these intelligence simulators.

What is thinking?

 

[banmate6]

I don't know, would this be any worse than the 'stars matter' pseudo debate? You mean when you have better, higher-class athletes and players on your team, across the board by position, year after year, you tend to win more often than the teams that don't? Who would have thunk it??? I mean I never would have believed it, but the stats just don't lie....

Sounds like it's similar. Money talks and bullshit walks at the end of the day, and I suppose it doesn't really matter too much what the statistics would appear to predict on this subject. As in you don't really need much in the way of state of the art metrics or analytics for something like this. You're either going to take a chance on a high flyer like MF or not, with a pretty full breadth of awareness, I suppose, that he might totally fail, presumably on account of being so inexperienced, and you know that much going in. The farthest I'd go is to say, were I a professional administrator with no real hi-tech number crunching experience, is that maybe I'd be surprised to learn, after thorough analysis, that young, rookie coaches with a profile about like MF's end up doing better than you might have thought. And it probably wouldn't affect my decision too much. As I'm already aware of the essential risk, and it just comes down to how much I believe in MF. And the stats don't somehow imbue him with more key experience than he actually has.

Isn't that what you guys are talking about, what the numbers really tell us about coaches like MF, and their true chances for success, when you really delve deep? I guess if MF doesn't end up being successful, you can always cover you ass, and say hey, I was just trusting the stats....

Let me crunch some numbers and see. Like I said, it will be fun and maybe offer something complementary to common sense, intuition, and causation?

Statistics ultimately are about correlations based on confidence factor. Not necessarily causation. In some cases, 100% predictive success might be causation.

Here’s my tentative prediction: there will be a strong correlation between prior successful head coaching experience and success at a big program. Less so for no head coaching experience at a big program.

I see this already in the example of Notre Dame starting with Faust. I’ll just make it more formal with more data. And yes…the conclusion might be anti-climatic. Yet it may offer more color actually in making a bet…as 30% odds of success for a coach with intangibles you sense might be worth it.

Once I get my model in order, I’ll share it.

 

[NDinNJ]

We got close to the mountain top w/ the restrictions that this poster goes on & on & on about, and if we had a coach that could get us as motivated as we looked this past Saturday night, instead of saying things like “we would love to be at the level of Alabama” right before we, being the #1 team in the country, played them in the ‘12 title game, maybe we wouldn’t have laid eggs the three times we were close. Imagine playing for that ‘12 team and have your coach say that he wished we were at the level of the team we were playing? Lol, what a confidence instiller. And another note, had we played this year’s Bama team instead of the ones we played, we’d probably have a title or two in that stretch too. That is if our coach believed we could win, which apparently he didn’t.

He was too busy interviewing for NFL HC jobs to be bothered with game planning to beat Alabama. The results speak for themselves.

 

[NDinNJ]

Thanks for taking the time to understand my POV. We all PROJECT, but what counts is ONE’S FACT BASE.

I objected to Freeman’s hire as much on the basis of HOW IT WAS DONE as I did to HIM BEING CHOSEN. To me, it was a FAITH-BASED GAMBIT meant to maintain a certain preferred COMMUNAL/INSTITUTIONAL VIBE as opposed to one based on solid FOOTBALL FUNDAMENTALS.

Narratives and visions don’t interest me. MISSIONS based on fundamentals DO.

Your doubt about Freeman being able to somehow CHARISMA ND to the next level is WELL-TAKEN. Unless ND intends to HELP HIM by PULLING STRINGS and BENDING RULES, I don’t see how anything – LONG-TERM – changes.

In other words, where is the MULTIFACETED, OPEN-THROTTLE STRATEGY by which ND football REGAINS CHAMPIONSHIP CALIBER STATUS?

When ND hired Marcus Freeman, what it said to me is -- THERE IS NO SUCH STRATEGY.

Not really.

Keep telling yourself this. Btw, keep these long post coming, such a great tranquilizer. Great bedtime material. You should publish your posts, best seller material for those with insomnia trying to get some sleep.

 

[john0gaunt]

Honestly, 443’s posts on Freeman match the opinion of every poster on this board once news broke of Kelly leaving. Every poster wanted an experienced coach to be hired to replace Kelly. ND hired Freeman and most of us got behind him, myself included. 443 didn’t smoke any of the hopium most of us did. While I hope he’s wrong, kudos to him for sticking to his, and most of our, original thesis..

 

[Golson5]

Honestly, 443’s posts on Freeman match the opinion of every poster on this board once news broke of Kelly leaving. Every poster wanted an experienced coach to be hired to replace Kelly. ND hired Freeman and most of us got behind him, myself included. 443 didn’t smoke any of the hopium most of us did. While I hope he’s wrong, kudos to him for sticking to his, and most of our, original thesis..

I wanted MF as coach after BK left

 

[irishwolfpack]

Biased to what? That makes no sense.

You are too, nitwit.

 

[Notre Dame du Lac]

You are too, nitwit.

You are what? You guys can’t even read. I know which side of the ballot you’ll be filling out today, if you even have a car to get you there.

 

[NDDadx3]

I wanted MF as coach after BK left

Many of us did … either you have it or you don’t … we will see if MF has it, but many of us were willing to find out.

 

[mrwigglesby21]

Keep telling yourself this. Btw, keep these long post coming, such a great tranquilizer. Great bedtime material. You should publish your posts, best seller material for those with insomnia trying to get some sleep.

What is the point of trashing a contributor to the board you frequent when said poster NEVER personally attacks anyone?

 

[banmate6]

What is the point of trashing a contributor to the board you frequent when said poster NEVER personally attacks anyone?

Tons of possible reasons. Part of it is fun, but part of it isn not warranted, especially insults...and part of it is motivated by 4-4-3 actually being thoughtful and well spoken.

It does point out that ND is popular and motivating. We all love the Irish and feel strongly about the team. And we all hope for the kind of success that made us Irish fans in the 1st place.

Success is good.

 

[irishwolfpack]

Honestly, 443’s posts on Freeman match the opinion of every poster on this board once news broke of Kelly leaving. Every poster wanted an experienced coach to be hired to replace Kelly. ND hired Freeman and most of us got behind him, myself included. 443 didn’t smoke any of the hopium most of us did. While I hope he’s wrong, kudos to him for sticking to his, and most of our, original thesis..

No.

 

[NDinNJ]

Honestly, 443’s posts on Freeman match the opinion of every poster on this board once news broke of Kelly leaving. Every poster wanted an experienced coach to be hired to replace Kelly. ND hired Freeman and most of us got behind him, myself included. 443 didn’t smoke any of the hopium most of us did. While I hope he’s wrong, kudos to him for sticking to his, and most of our, original thesis..

of course i did. Would have preferred they hired Fickell, but they hired Freeman. No point in lamenting about it because there is ZERO any of us can do about it.
Where I have issue with 4-4-3 is his comparisons of Freeman to Faust, Davie, and Weis. Freeman is none of those individuals, he's Marcus Freeman. Are the odds against him based on history, absolutely, but that doesn't mean he won't be successful.

In fact there is a solid chance ND ends up 9-3 on the season and with a bowl win gets to 10 wins. A slight drop off from a year ago, but that should have been expected with a new coaching staff, and the QB and WR rooms left a mess by the previous HC. I predicted anywhere between 8-4 and 10-2 this season.

He's in year 1, let's give him a few years to get HIS players on the field.

 

[Golson5]

of course i did. Would have preferred they hired Fickell, but they hired Freeman. No point in lamenting about it because there is ZERO any of us can do about it.
Where I have issue with 4-4-3 is his comparisons of Freeman to Faust, Davie, and Weis. Freeman is none of those individuals, he's Marcus Freeman. Are the odds against him based on history, absolutely, but that doesn't mean he won't be successful.

In fact there is a solid chance ND ends up 9-3 on the season and with a bowl win gets to 10 wins. A slight drop off from a year ago, but that should have been expected with a new coaching staff, and the QB and WR rooms left a mess by the previous HC. I predicted anywhere between 8-4 and 10-2 this season.

He's in year 1, let's give him a few years to get HIS players on the field.

I wanted Freeman over Fickell and I'm going to stand behind that

 

[john0gaunt]

of course i did. Would have preferred they hired Fickell, but they hired Freeman. No point in lamenting about it because there is ZERO any of us can do about it.
Where I have issue with 4-4-3 is his comparisons of Freeman to Faust, Davie, and Weis. Freeman is none of those individuals, he's Marcus Freeman. Are the odds against him based on history, absolutely, but that doesn't mean he won't be successful.

In fact there is a solid chance ND ends up 9-3 on the season and with a bowl win gets to 10 wins. A slight drop off from a year ago, but that should have been expected with a new coaching staff, and the QB and WR rooms left a mess by the previous HC. I predicted anywhere between 8-4 and 10-2 this season.

He's in year 1, let's give him a few years to get HIS players on the field.

Had there been a board when Davie was hired, all would have compared him to Faust, except Davie had DC experience. There was a board when Weis was hired, and all compared him to Davie and Faust, except Weis had SB rings. I agree with you Freeman is Freeman and may turn out to be a home run hire.

When this season started it appeared the OL, RB room and def backfield were also a mess. Freeman and his staff have improved on all those, so hats off to the guy.

But 443 has his opinion and he's entitled to it. Freeman has some big wins, but so did Weis. He had his team one play away from the BCS title game and ND's biggest rival required 2 Heisman winners to cheat in order to keep him out. So, 443 has every right to remain sceptical.

But we are all now rooting for Freeman, as you say we have no choice. Many of us are rooting for Rees as well. Some of us even root for Pyne.

But 443 is entitled to his opinion, he explains it, how should I say, completely. I just hope he's wrong.

 

[mrwigglesby21]

I’ve not changed my mind on the Freeman hire, and last night’s game doesn’t change my opinion of MF and/or his future with ND.

In other words, I’m as SKEPTICAL as ever as there’s no telling, at this point, whether what happened on Saturday was simply a dynamic upside blip within the same range of probability that includes the Marshall and Stanford losses or an actual TREND REVERSAL.

Kelly said somewhere – and I’m PARAPHRASING – that he thought Freeman would be a success at some point, but that it didn’t mean NECESSARILY that he would be the long-awaited DIFFERENCE MAKER at ND.

I’m with Kelly on the second half of his comment, though I’m not convinced that Freeman will EVER be a BIG-TIME SUCCESS at all. I still don’t see the CHOPS. But if I’m wrong, I’ll SURELY ACKNOWLEDGE IT. I certainly don’t have MONEY on it.

I also wondered re the second half of that comment if Kelly believes that ANYONE can EVER be that REDEMPTIVE difference maker, given how ND ROLLS.

As for the game, ND played extremely well. I know many don’t think much of Rees, but, to me, it was one of the most brilliant displays of play calling I’ve witnessed. Clemson was completely outsmarted then beaten off the ball, PLAY AFTER PLAY AFTER PLAY.

Frankly, I don’t think Kelly ever experienced as dramatically SATISFYING a win, though I would rank his 2012 defeat of OU on the road and the 2017 victory over USC in South Bend as equally impressive.

The only NEGATIVE I came away with from the Clemson game was Clemson’s moving the ball rather easily in its last three drives, two of which resulted in TD’s and the third, in Morrison’s backbreaking interception on an underthrown ball.

So, if I’m USC’s DC, there may be interesting film information contained in those last three Clemson drives that may be of USE to me.

As for Kelly, it took him only ONE YEAR – using his motley assortment of transfers, underperforming holdovers and native Louisiana talent -- to beat SABAN and BAMA. And it should NOT have been surprising.

It certainly wasn't to Saban who called Kelly, THE LAST GREAT TACTICIAN IN COLLEGE FOOTBALL. A subject Saban might know something about.

We are all on the same page that preferably ND would have hired someone with Kelly's experience and the recruiting prowess of MF. The debate there is would ND have been able to identify and secure that guy, how much damage would have been done to the elite 2022 and 2023 recruiting classes, and would the recent winning culture continue.

Jack rolled the dice on Freeman no doubt. Paraphrasing Coach Holtz, "if a dog will bite, it will bite as a puppy". Freeman looks like a biter. I understand your skepticism, but I do feel the win over Clemson (the fashion in which it was achieved - yes the last 14pts were disappointing) coupled with the way the team showed up for Oklahoma St (one of Gundy's better teams), @Ohio State, @syracuse, @BYU, and @UNC should give serious optimism that MF will have these boys ready for the big games - something Kelly failed to achieve more times than not. And not just ready, but ready to dominate. When is the last time ND lined up with 3 TE and just dominated an elite defense all day? Holtz? Damn impressive. Hell, when is the last time anyone in college football lined up in 3 TE and dominated an elite defense, 2012 Bama?

The collapse in the 2nd half of Oklahoma St, and the not-showing-up against Marshall / Stanford are easier mistakes to correct, IMHO, than correcting the issues of continuously getting blown out in big games starting from the opening snap.

I don't believe those Kelly victories you mentioned were more impressive than MF's victory over Clemson. I also don't believe the Clemson victory by MF was significantly better than the Kelly victories as this Clemson team was not Dabo's best, but I believe it could beat the three teams you mentioned. I'll simply say MF has just as good a victory as Kelly in 9 games vs the 120+ Kelly was afforded.

There is a seat waiting for you on the MF train, labeled 4-4-3 and all, let me know when you're ready to board and I'll have it dusted off for you.

 

[irishwolfpack]

You are what? You guys can’t even read. I know which side of the ballot you’ll be filling out today, if you even have a car to get you there.

Yikes. You ascribed a trait to someone. I extended the allegation to you. There is only one way to interpret what i said. And you somehow lost your way in that confusing stream.

 

[banmate6]

I wanted Freeman over Fickell and I'm going to stand behind that

I have no real preference. Maybe a top coach like Urban Meyer? Who isn't available anyways.

I accepted the judgement of ND and simply support Freeman and the Irish...but obviously heed the stats as well as use my eye test. With that, Fickell might have the better odds, which I'm cranking, of having long term success.

Mind you, to the point you and others bring up, Freeman might become a great coach. And we'll try to figure out why, aside from him just having it.

 

[Notre Dame du Lac]

let's see how he does against unranked teams before we canonize him saint marcus. so far he's 2-2 vs unranked opponents.

 

[Patrirish]

No.

YES !

 

[Patrirish]

let's see how he does against unranked teams before we canonize him saint marcus. so far he's 2-2 vs unranked opponents.

👍

 

[NDinNJ]

Had there been a board when Davie was hired, all would have compared him to Faust, except Davie had DC experience. There was a board when Weis was hired, and all compared him to Davie and Faust, except Weis had SB rings. I agree with you Freeman is Freeman and may turn out to be a home run hire.

When this season started it appeared the OL, RB room and def backfield were also a mess. Freeman and his staff have improved on all those, so hats off to the guy.

But 443 has his opinion and he's entitled to it. Freeman has some big wins, but so did Weis. He had his team one play away from the BCS title game and ND's biggest rival required 2 Heisman winners to cheat in order to keep him out. So, 443 has every right to remain sceptical.

But we are all now rooting for Freeman, as you say we have no choice. Many of us are rooting for Rees as well. Some of us even root for Pyne.

But 443 is entitled to his opinion, he explains it, how should I say, completely. I just hope he's wrong.

I agree, but you have to give Freemam a chance. I actually enjoy his posts. So read them at night when i'm ready for bed. His posts put me to sleep. Try it some time. 😂

 

[Golson5]

We are all on the same page that preferably ND would have hired someone with Kelly's experience and the recruiting prowess of MF. The debate there is would ND have been able to identify and secure that guy, how much damage would have been done to the elite 2022 and 2023 recruiting classes, and would the recent winning culture continue.

Jack rolled the dice on Freeman no doubt. Paraphrasing Coach Holtz, "if a dog will bite, it will bite as a puppy". Freeman looks like a biter. I understand your skepticism, but I do feel the win over Clemson (the fashion in which it was achieved - yes the last 14pts were disappointing) coupled with the way the team showed up for Oklahoma St (one of Gundy's better teams), @Ohio State, @syracuse, @BYU, and @UNC should give serious optimism that MF will have these boys ready for the big games - something Kelly failed to achieve more times than not. And not just ready, but ready to dominate. When is the last time ND lined up with 3 TE and just dominated an elite defense all day? Holtz? Damn impressive. Hell, when is the last time anyone in college football lined up in 3 TE and dominated an elite defense, 2012 Bama?

The collapse in the 2nd half of Oklahoma St, and the not-showing-up against Marshall / Stanford are easier mistakes to correct, IMHO, than correcting the issues of continuously getting blown out in big games starting from the opening snap.

I don't believe those Kelly victories you mentioned were more impressive than MF's victory over Clemson. I also don't believe the Clemson victory by MF was significantly better than the Kelly victories as this Clemson team was not Dabo's best, but I believe it could beat the three teams you mentioned. I'll simply say MF has just as good a victory as Kelly in 9 games vs the 120+ Kelly was afforded.

There is a seat waiting for you on the MF train, labeled 4-4-3 and all, let me know when you're ready to board and I'll have it dusted off for you.

Not many of those guys out there. Maybe a handful

 

[john0gaunt]

I agree, but you have to give Freemam a chance. I actually enjoy his posts. So read them at night when i'm ready for bed. His posts put me to sleep. Try it some time. 😂

The guy knows his ND football history and does his research.

 

[Golson5]

I have no real preference. Maybe a top coach like Urban Meyer? Who isn't available anyways.

I accepted the judgement of ND and simply support Freeman and the Irish...but obviously heed the stats as well as use my eye test. With that, Fickell might have the better odds, which I'm cranking, of having long term success.

Mind you, to the point you and others bring up, Freeman might become a great coach. And we'll try to figure out why, aside from him just having it.

Fickell was a continuation of Kelly. Very good coach but not dynamic enough to take us to the next level, my opinion.

JS took a chance at the possibilty of a dynamic coach that can compete for a NC. I agree with him

 

[4-4-3]

Had there been a board when Davie was hired, all would have compared him to Faust, except Davie had DC experience. There was a board when Weis was hired, and all compared him to Davie and Faust, except Weis had SB rings. I agree with you Freeman is Freeman and may turn out to be a home run hire.

When this season started it appeared the OL, RB room and def backfield were also a mess. Freeman and his staff have improved on all those, so hats off to the guy.

But 443 has his opinion and he's entitled to it. Freeman has some big wins, but so did Weis. He had his team one play away from the BCS title game and ND's biggest rival required 2 Heisman winners to cheat in order to keep him out. So, 443 has every right to remain sceptical.

But we are all now rooting for Freeman, as you say we have no choice. Many of us are rooting for Rees as well. Some of us even root for Pyne.

But 443 is entitled to his opinion, he explains it, how should I say, completely. I just hope he's wrong.

Even as you're entitled to yours.

In the end, REALITY RULES. However it may turn out.

 

[savvyandsassier]

The comparison to Faust is only in that it was something of an indulgence. ND is flying high, there were plenty of capable coaches with experience we could have hired, or pursued, to hopefully maintain our hard-won elite status. And part of ND lore is the article of faith among fans and even former coaches that you should never hire a first time coach to be ND football coach.

Other than that MF is nothing like Faust. Obviously. He's a rising young assistant coach, with a good if rather slight resume, who ND fell in love with, and they decided to hire him anyway, which if nothing else would come with recruiting benefits.

And that's about all there is to say....

Edit to add, that the reason he was hired, and ND took a chance on this unproven youngblood, and violated their supposedly most inviolable cardinal rule, was on account on MF's good looks, charisma, as well as, come to find out, his exceptional personal affinity for ND. If he lacked all of those largely superficial traits, or at least I would describe them as such, he most definitely would not have been hired. Even if everything else on his actual coaching resume was totally the same.....

 

[john0gaunt]

Even as you're entitled to yours.

In the end, REALITY RULES. However it may turn out.

I'm gonna go ahead and crown you resident ND football history expert. You seem to have the best grip on past teams of any poster on the board.

Question: Can you tell me the last ND QB that went undefeated for an entire season vs ranked teams?

 

[Drinking The Green Koolaid]

I wanted Freeman over Fickell and I'm going to stand behind that

I was all in on Coach Freeman from the beginning. While he has had a couple of hiccups coming out of the gate, I foresee great things from him.

Putting aside the experience factor, what is there not to like about Marcus? He is smart. He understands his limitations and is working his tail off to get better. He is a tireless recruiter. One of his most endearing traits to me is that he is completely authentic, and I think that resonates with recruits and their parents. There isn't a phony bone in his body. He "gets" Notre Dame and what it means to former players and alumni, and how starved they are to see ND win another NC. Marcus hasn't run from the challenges that come with recruiting kids to play at ND; to the contrary, he has embraced them. And he understands that small gestures mean something. I just read that he stopped by band practice to apologize to the band for not being there for the playing of the alma mater at the end of the Clemson game, because he had gotten swept up in the sea of students that ran on to the field to celebrate the win. Hard to imagine another coach taking the time to do that.

Time will tell, but I like the trajectory that ND football is on right now.

 

[Golson5]

I was all in on Coach Freeman from the beginning. While he has had a couple of hiccups coming out of the gate, I foresee great things from him.

Putting aside the experience factor, what is there not to like about Marcus? He is smart. He understands his limitations and is working his tail off to get better. He is a tireless recruiter. One of his most endearing traits to me is that he is completely authentic, and I think that resonates with recruits and their parents. There isn't a phony bone in his body. He "gets" Notre Dame and what it means to former players and alumni, and how starved they are to see ND win another NC. Marcus hasn't run from the challenges that come with recruiting kids to play at ND; to the contrary, he has embraced them. And he understands that small gestures mean something. I just read that he stopped by band practice to apologize to the band for not being there for the playing of the alma mater at the end of the Clemson game, because he had gotten swept up in the sea of students that ran on to the field to celebrate the win. Hard to imagine another coach taking the time to do that.

Time will tell, but I like the trajectory that ND football is on right now.

Very well said

 

[4-4-3]

We are all on the same page that preferably ND would have hired someone with Kelly's experience and the recruiting prowess of MF. The debate there is would ND have been able to identify and secure that guy, how much damage would have been done to the elite 2022 and 2023 recruiting classes, and would the recent winning culture continue.

Jack rolled the dice on Freeman no doubt. Paraphrasing Coach Holtz, "if a dog will bite, it will bite as a puppy". Freeman looks like a biter. I understand your skepticism, but I do feel the win over Clemson (the fashion in which it was achieved - yes the last 14pts were disappointing) coupled with the way the team showed up for Oklahoma St (one of Gundy's better teams), @Ohio State, @syracuse, @BYU, and @UNC should give serious optimism that MF will have these boys ready for the big games - something Kelly failed to achieve more times than not. And not just ready, but ready to dominate. When is the last time ND lined up with 3 TE and just dominated an elite defense all day? Holtz? Damn impressive. Hell, when is the last time anyone in college football lined up in 3 TE and dominated an elite defense, 2012 Bama?

The collapse in the 2nd half of Oklahoma St, and the not-showing-up against Marshall / Stanford are easier mistakes to correct, IMHO, than correcting the issues of continuously getting blown out in big games starting from the opening snap.

I don't believe those Kelly victories you mentioned were more impressive than MF's victory over Clemson. I also don't believe the Clemson victory by MF was significantly better than the Kelly victories as this Clemson team was not Dabo's best, but I believe it could beat the three teams you mentioned. I'll simply say MF has just as good a victory as Kelly in 9 games vs the 120+ Kelly was afforded.

There is a seat waiting for you on the MF train, labeled 4-4-3 and all, let me know when you're ready to board and I'll have it dusted off for you.

To be clear, my negativity re Freeman’s hire is part of a broader issue:

• If ND had an ALL-IN approach to its football program, it wouldn’t have to worry so much about losing recruits by not selecting a SPECIFIC coach – one by the way who a) might not be the best option and b) may be TOO POPULAR with the players so that the university, in effect, SUBS OUT much of the hiring process. Instead, it would have numerous qualified candidates at all times.
• Yes, it might have taken a season or two to RE-STABILIZE recruiting – or MAYBE NOT – but either way, the ND I would like to see would be a RECRUTING power, year on year REGARDLESS of who the coach was as was the case with Faust – 3 number one classes -- followed by Holtz’s 4 number one classes.
• In other words, the INSTITUTION must have its OWN SELLING POWER, apart from who its coach is. It should be ND SELLING ND and not just MARCUS FREEMAN doing it because, to me, that’s an ORDER OF MAGNITUDE DIFFERENT.
• Take OSU since the mid-90’s. They’ve been through a number of coaches. Has recruiting EVER faltered? No. But at ND where coaches have to play THREAD THE NEEDLE, the “fit,” “personality” and “values set” of the coach himself is expected to serve as the EQUALIZING X FACTOR. I mean, what a lot of EXTRA WORK and DRAMA. And to WHAT END?
• Plus, it premises the program’s ENTIRE CHANCES on nabbing that ever-elusive ONE MESSIAH COACH.
• Re Freeman, what matters as much to me is that should he prove successful, it will have been the result of a distant three-point shot rather than something higher percentage and closer to the basket. Sometimes, you get lucky and your BLIND PIG actually finds his ACORN, but, AS AN APPROACH, it’s the very DEFINITION of POOR PLANNING. And by BLIND PIG, I mean ND.

Kelly:

• Kelly’s OU and USC victories were, FOR ME, just as impressive AT THE TIME. There’s usually some RECENCY BIAS, so what happened last Saturday will almost ALWAYS have a leg up in the impressiveness sweepstakes than something from five or ten years ago. It’s fresher and SEEMINGLY more significant. And simply because it’s NOW. But how will it play over time? Watershed moment or random great game?
• And as for Kelly losing the BIG ONES – notably, for me, the two games to Bama and the two to Clemson – I don’t see how ND could have won EVEN ONE OF THEM – and regardless of how fired-up they could have gotten – given the TALENT DIFFERENTIALS. And I’d be willing to bet that Freeman wouldn’t have won those games either simply BY DINT of being Marcus Freeman.

The Clemson victory was NO DOUBT IMPRESSIVE, but ND certainly had the TALENT to beat North Carolina, Syracuse and BYU, not to mention Marshall and Stanford, neither of which it did. And both the OSU and other OSU game were, in the end, LOSSES. So, half a loaf is STILL not a loaf.

But the real point is TALENT. Freeman has beaten one really good team with TOP-TEN TALENT. That he’s ALLEGEDLY gotten the team up for big games more than Kelly did – even were it true – means nothing UNLESS YOU WIN THOSE AND MOST FUTURE GAMES.

By the way, did you see any LACK OF FIRE in Baton Rouge Saturday night? Was that not a BIG GAME win? Were those LSU players not MOTIVATED? Who’s their coach? Brian Kelly. Might LSU be a BETTER ENVIRONMENT for Brian Kelly to coach in? Early days, but he WILL get the talent.

But to finish my point, it was, to me, the COMPARATIVE POUND FOR POUND LACK OF TALENT that ULTIMATELY cost ND those butt whippings to Alabama and Clemson as anyone who watched those games COMPLETELY UNDERSTOOD at the time and, I HOPE, hasn’t forgotten.

The key thing now is HOW WELL WILL FREEMAN DO WITH THE WIND AT HIS BACK? He’s now officially MADE HIS BONES. Can he perform as well in the lead? We’ll see. Faust and Weis couldn’t but Freeman isn’t necessarily either. But if he does do well, I’ll certainly credit him, though whatever it is many think he has, I STILL HAVEN’T SEEN. But then, I could be DEAD WRONG.

In the meantime, thanks for the GOOD-FAITH offer, but GIVE THAT TRAIN SEAT to whomever wants it.

 

[4-4-3]

let's see how he does against unranked teams before we canonize him saint marcus. so far he's 2-2 vs unranked opponents.

It's a fair point. The Navy point spread is close to what the Marshall and Stanford spreads were.

I'm by no means predicting that Navy will upset ND but merely pointing out that the "IMPOSSIBLE" has already happened.

TWICE.

We don't need any THIRD-TIME CHARMS.