I want to start this off with saying that coaches have a big impact on recruiting. I'm not absolving Kelly of his failures at ND by making this article. In fact, if you read many of my posts I'm on the 'fire' Kelly band wagon. Not simply because of poor coaching/on the field decision making (those things are actually rather difficult to evaluate given the limited access/insight we have to the team), but by and large, because of lack luster recruiting/personnel results.
I do also believe that university administration (AD, university president, etc.) has a HUGE impact on recruiting as well based on policies relating to restrictions, budget, admissions, etc. This is clearly an area of the program/team/university that REQUIRES addressing.
ND DOES NOT RECRUIT "WELL", RECRUITING IS NOT "GOOD".
And nobody in the media seems to care/talk about it/ or report on it (there's just a seemingly awkward agreement among professionals/analysts that cover the team that the recruiting is 'good'). I don't know any sport where talent is virtually ignored or looked at as an afterthought. TALENT IS EVERYTHING. And it can be quantified thanks to a growing billion dollar recruiting industry that covers it extensively and keeps a database going back a decade ... like the one here on Rivals for instance.
The programs winning national championships on the football field are the programs winning national championships in recruiting leading up to them and its been that way since the ESPN/BCS era. This is an unarguable fact.
Here are national championship winners over the last 10+ years:
2005: Texas
2006: Florida
2007: LSU
2008: Florida
2009: Alabama
2010: Auburn
2011: Alabama
2012: Alabama
2013: Florida State
2014: Ohio State
2015: Alabama
What is the common denominator between all of these programs? If you haven't guessed it: They are recruiting powerhouses who dominate the recruiting rankings every year, have rosters full of consensus Top100 nationally rated recruits, and did so leading up to their national championships. Nobody recruits better than these programs and nobody wins more national championships/plays in more national championships than they do in the modern era.
Prior to 2005 it was USC dominating the recruiting rankings and also winning multiple national championships/playing in multiple national championship games.
NDs competition is no longer just the 12 teams on their schedule -- with the new playoff system -- NDs true competition is the top 5% of the 128 FBS programs in college football. Getting 4 star players at ND (which people often cite when defending NDs recruiting) isn't enough when the real playoff national championship contending programs are hording high 4 star and 5 star national bluechip talent.
Below is NDs recruiting class rank during the BK era
Year : ND rivals recruiting rank
2010: 14th
2011: 10th
2012: 20th
2013: 3rd
2014: 11th
2015: 11th
2016: 13th
These are not good enough results for a program with NDs money, prestige, history, fan suppport, etc. more importantly they are not good enough results to put the program in a prime position to win national championships.
These results don't even take into account into account all of the defections / suspensions / academic issues that lead to many of NDs best recruits leaving. Yes, all teams suffer from defections/academic issues/etc. but by ANY standard ND has been hit VERY hard (abnormally so) during the BK era.
These rankings also don't take into account that ND really only recruits well at a few position groups (mostly on the offensive side of the ball) thus providing depth at a few positions but largely leaving major talent gaps/talent drop off at the majority of others (mostly defense).
Also, ND does a terrible job maximizing its 85 scholarship allotment. Yes we can list off 3 or 4 star players 2 deep at many positions .. but if we lose a starter at ND we lose ANY rotation at the position because we don't have a capable 3rd and 4th guy ready in the wings. THIS IS A MAJOR ISSUE THAT GOES VIRTUALLY UNTALKED ABOUT.
Rivals breaks it down like this (these are the players the top contending teams are competing for):
6.1 Rivals Rating (5 star)
6.0 Rivals Rating (high 4 star top 50 type national talent)
5.9 Rivals Rating (middle 4 star -- top 100ish national talent)
5.8 Rivals Rating (low 4 star)
5.7 Rivals Rating (high 3 star)
ND does extremely well with the two lowest tiers here (low 4 star, high 3 star) while the top 5% of programs are pulling in the 5.9, 6.0, 6.1s in mass quantity.
Until the talent gap is closed ND will always be a huge underdog to make the playoff, let alone win the playoff if they get there. And that's regardless of who is coaching the team. The program's results over the last 20+ years only further proves this fact.
This 2017 class is more of the same ... 80% of the roster will be high 3 star, low 4 star, only perpetuating the mediocrity another season further. Why are people surprised about another likely 8 or 9 win season when ND recruits like an 8 or 9 win program?
Why sample size matters, why MSU winning despite their mediocre talent has no relevance to NDs program, etc.
Why does Alabama and OSU lose to lesser opponents sometimes despite their talent advantage? Because variance/luck plays a significant role over a small sample size/a single game (4 quarters). There's a much stronger correlation between recruiting rankings AND winning percentage when expanding the sample size to more games/multiple seasons.
There's nothing more important/conducive to winning than the quality of athlete a program can obtain on the recruiting trail. Nothing more. This is something that should just be intuitively obvious. People like to cite very rare exceptions to this rule. Program's like MSU, or Oregon during the Chip Kelly era, or even Stanford. "how come these program's win despite their bad recruiting" ... these program's are both an exception to the rule and they haven't actually won anything worthy of Notre Dame (like a national championship for instance -- or even gotten there).
I do also believe that university administration (AD, university president, etc.) has a HUGE impact on recruiting as well based on policies relating to restrictions, budget, admissions, etc. This is clearly an area of the program/team/university that REQUIRES addressing.
ND DOES NOT RECRUIT "WELL", RECRUITING IS NOT "GOOD".
And nobody in the media seems to care/talk about it/ or report on it (there's just a seemingly awkward agreement among professionals/analysts that cover the team that the recruiting is 'good'). I don't know any sport where talent is virtually ignored or looked at as an afterthought. TALENT IS EVERYTHING. And it can be quantified thanks to a growing billion dollar recruiting industry that covers it extensively and keeps a database going back a decade ... like the one here on Rivals for instance.
The programs winning national championships on the football field are the programs winning national championships in recruiting leading up to them and its been that way since the ESPN/BCS era. This is an unarguable fact.
Here are national championship winners over the last 10+ years:
2005: Texas
2006: Florida
2007: LSU
2008: Florida
2009: Alabama
2010: Auburn
2011: Alabama
2012: Alabama
2013: Florida State
2014: Ohio State
2015: Alabama
What is the common denominator between all of these programs? If you haven't guessed it: They are recruiting powerhouses who dominate the recruiting rankings every year, have rosters full of consensus Top100 nationally rated recruits, and did so leading up to their national championships. Nobody recruits better than these programs and nobody wins more national championships/plays in more national championships than they do in the modern era.
Prior to 2005 it was USC dominating the recruiting rankings and also winning multiple national championships/playing in multiple national championship games.
NDs competition is no longer just the 12 teams on their schedule -- with the new playoff system -- NDs true competition is the top 5% of the 128 FBS programs in college football. Getting 4 star players at ND (which people often cite when defending NDs recruiting) isn't enough when the real playoff national championship contending programs are hording high 4 star and 5 star national bluechip talent.
Below is NDs recruiting class rank during the BK era
Year : ND rivals recruiting rank
2010: 14th
2011: 10th
2012: 20th
2013: 3rd
2014: 11th
2015: 11th
2016: 13th
These are not good enough results for a program with NDs money, prestige, history, fan suppport, etc. more importantly they are not good enough results to put the program in a prime position to win national championships.
These results don't even take into account into account all of the defections / suspensions / academic issues that lead to many of NDs best recruits leaving. Yes, all teams suffer from defections/academic issues/etc. but by ANY standard ND has been hit VERY hard (abnormally so) during the BK era.
These rankings also don't take into account that ND really only recruits well at a few position groups (mostly on the offensive side of the ball) thus providing depth at a few positions but largely leaving major talent gaps/talent drop off at the majority of others (mostly defense).
Also, ND does a terrible job maximizing its 85 scholarship allotment. Yes we can list off 3 or 4 star players 2 deep at many positions .. but if we lose a starter at ND we lose ANY rotation at the position because we don't have a capable 3rd and 4th guy ready in the wings. THIS IS A MAJOR ISSUE THAT GOES VIRTUALLY UNTALKED ABOUT.
Rivals breaks it down like this (these are the players the top contending teams are competing for):
6.1 Rivals Rating (5 star)
6.0 Rivals Rating (high 4 star top 50 type national talent)
5.9 Rivals Rating (middle 4 star -- top 100ish national talent)
5.8 Rivals Rating (low 4 star)
5.7 Rivals Rating (high 3 star)
ND does extremely well with the two lowest tiers here (low 4 star, high 3 star) while the top 5% of programs are pulling in the 5.9, 6.0, 6.1s in mass quantity.
Until the talent gap is closed ND will always be a huge underdog to make the playoff, let alone win the playoff if they get there. And that's regardless of who is coaching the team. The program's results over the last 20+ years only further proves this fact.
This 2017 class is more of the same ... 80% of the roster will be high 3 star, low 4 star, only perpetuating the mediocrity another season further. Why are people surprised about another likely 8 or 9 win season when ND recruits like an 8 or 9 win program?
Why sample size matters, why MSU winning despite their mediocre talent has no relevance to NDs program, etc.
Why does Alabama and OSU lose to lesser opponents sometimes despite their talent advantage? Because variance/luck plays a significant role over a small sample size/a single game (4 quarters). There's a much stronger correlation between recruiting rankings AND winning percentage when expanding the sample size to more games/multiple seasons.
There's nothing more important/conducive to winning than the quality of athlete a program can obtain on the recruiting trail. Nothing more. This is something that should just be intuitively obvious. People like to cite very rare exceptions to this rule. Program's like MSU, or Oregon during the Chip Kelly era, or even Stanford. "how come these program's win despite their bad recruiting" ... these program's are both an exception to the rule and they haven't actually won anything worthy of Notre Dame (like a national championship for instance -- or even gotten there).
Last edited: