Playoffs??? Not so fast!!!

[TeddyOH]

Look. I realize that every talking head now says ND is a lock if we win out. I want to believe that, but it’s not so simple.

First off, BEAT MIAMI!

If we do continue to win, this is what we’re up against:

http://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/21317065/tough-leave-unbeaten-power-5-team-cfp

I remember previous shenanigans with the Big Ten title game. How about OSU needing a big win in 2014 to get into the playoff. Wisconsin was only too happy to oblige laying down 59-0. Seriously? There should have been an investigation there!

I’ll say it again. No way we beat out a Big Ten champ unless we have a better record.

I am still very nervous about Clemson and Oklahoma. If both win out, there is a chance they jump us in the final ranking. Undefeated Wisconsin I think also jumps us.

I’m praying things go our way, but we may see a bitter finish to the season. Just have those pitchforks handy!

 

[twalsh]

Look. I realize that every talking head now says ND is a lock if we win out. I want to believe that, but it’s not so simple.

First off, BEAT MIAMI!

If we do continue to win, this is what we’re up against:

http://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/21317065/tough-leave-unbeaten-power-5-team-cfp

I remember previous shenanigans with the Big Ten title game. How about OSU needing a big win in 2014 to get into the playoff. Wisconsin was only too happy to oblige laying down 59-0. Seriously? There should have been an investigation there!

I’ll say it again. No way we beat out a Big Ten champ unless we have a better record.

I am still very nervous about Clemson and Oklahoma. If both win out, there is a chance they jump us in the final ranking. Undefeated Wisconsin I think also jumps us.

I’m praying things go our way, but we may see a bitter finish to the season. Just have those pitchforks handy!

Can't worry about any of that. Just win Saturday, then we'll worry about Navy and chopblocks.

 

[NDSMC78]

Yeah, we will beat out Wisconsin. I like Barry Alvarez, but Wisconsin's schedule is dreadful. They should not be rewarded for playing a horrible schedule. That's why they were ranked # 9 last week. And, even if they go 12-0, the best they can hope to do is play a two loss team in the Big 10 CCG.

 

[pikehead]

Yeah, we will beat out Wisconsin. I like Barry Alvarez, but Wisconsin's schedule is dreadful. They should not be rewarded for playing a horrible schedule. That's why they were ranked # 9 last week. And, even if they go 12-0, the best they can hope to do is play a two loss team in the Big 10 CCG.

You have to take injuries in consideration,,, ND has been very close to something going wrong..Of course you never think of that do you ???

 

[twalsh]

You have to take injuries in consideration,,, ND has been very close to something going wrong..Of course you never think of that do you ???

Say what?????

 

[NDSMC78]

You have to take injuries in consideration,,, ND has been very close to something going wrong..Of course you never think of that do you ???

More gibberish from this loon.

 

[HRC08]

Wisconsin isn’t Ohio State. The Committee (or Cabal?) won’t treat them as such. If anything, ND would get the Ohio State treatment. Oklahoma isn’t going to get any love either. ND would score at will on them at Norman, South Bend or the Moon. They are done.

Win out and ND joins Bama, Georgia and Clemson/Wisconsin. Simple as that but obviously we’re all welcome to our own opinion.

 

[tbonesays]

and then there's UCF and UW

 

[notredamerises23]

Yeah, we will beat out Wisconsin. I like Barry Alvarez, but Wisconsin's schedule is dreadful. They should not be rewarded for playing a horrible schedule. That's why they were ranked # 9 last week. And, even if they go 12-0, the best they can hope to do is play a two loss team in the Big 10 CCG.

I love this era of data and analytics. Two decades ago, Wisconsin and Miami would be ranked higher because they were undefeated which would be wrong. Objectively, ND is better than both as of right now, and data and statistics have won out.

 

[NDSMC78]

I love this era of data and analytics. Two decades ago, Wisconsin and Miami would be ranked higher because they were undefeated which would be wrong. Objectively, ND is better than both as of right now, and data and statistics have won out.

Wisconsin's situation also shows the down side of conference expansion. In the old days, members of the Big 10 played 8-9 conference games. They were assured that they would play at least two or three games against good opponents. Now, due to the Big 10 having two divisions, Wisconsin doesn't play Michigan St., Ohio St. or Penn St.

 

[UGADawg1988]

The fear that UGA/Alabama and ND should have is if Wisconsin goes undefeated and wins their conference championship game. They'd have a solid gold trump card if they did that, and the committee would put them in the top 4, probably with the #4 seed, at the expense of some other team. This, especially combined with teams like Clemson and Oklahoma winning out, could dramatically change the final top 4.

 

[ndfi65]

The fear that UGA/Alabama and ND should have is if Wisconsin goes undefeated and wins their conference championship game. They'd have a solid gold trump card if they did that, and the committee would put them in the top 4, probably with the #4 seed, at the expense of some other team. This, especially combined with teams like Clemson and Oklahoma winning out, could dramatically change the final top 4.

What part of a one loss Clemson to Syracuse or a one loss Oklahoma to Iowa St, would pass up a one loss ND to Georgia. Tired of saying this to all the negative Nancy's , if the Irish win out they are in, period end of discussion.

 

[tbonesays]

What part of a one loss Clemson to Syracuse or a one loss Oklahoma to Iowa St, would pass up a one loss ND to Georgia. Tired of saying this to all the negative Nancy's , if the Irish win out they are in, period end of discussion.

Hope is not a strategy.

 

[Zorich 88]

Look. I realize that every talking head now says ND is a lock if we win out. I want to believe that, but it’s not so simple.

First off, BEAT MIAMI!

If we do continue to win, this is what we’re up against:

http://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/21317065/tough-leave-unbeaten-power-5-team-cfp

I remember previous shenanigans with the Big Ten title game. How about OSU needing a big win in 2014 to get into the playoff. Wisconsin was only too happy to oblige laying down 59-0. Seriously? There should have been an investigation there!

I’ll say it again. No way we beat out a Big Ten champ unless we have a better record.

I am still very nervous about Clemson and Oklahoma. If both win out, there is a chance they jump us in the final ranking. Undefeated Wisconsin I think also jumps us.

I’m praying things go our way, but we may see a bitter finish to the season. Just have those pitchforks handy!

After the final week (conference championship) if ND is #3, there is zero possibility a #5 or below team, jumps two spots and bumps ND totally out. Wisconsin, even if they run the table and win the conference championship, will not jump to 3. By the committee putting ND at 3 and not 4, that says a lot about how highly the committee thinks of ND. ND is safe at 3.

 

[NDEwing18]

What part of a one loss Clemson to Syracuse or a one loss Oklahoma to Iowa St, would pass up a one loss ND to Georgia. Tired of saying this to all the negative Nancy's , if the Irish win out they are in, period end of discussion.

I think the Committee takes into account more than one factor. I'm not saying that the "best loss" would not be dispositive, but I think there's clearly more than that.

 

[1Redrum]

The committee also wants teams to pass the "eye test"...i.e. we all watch Football and we can tell the difference between a truly good team and one that just happens to have wins. Sometimes teams like Wisconsin never get the opportunity but until maybe last week a team like Miami for example had not looked good while winning. ND wins out and they are IN because there will be a loss or two somewhere else to make it easier than it looks today. While I do not think ND needs to win by 28 points against Miami nor do I think they will to "look good" I think if they happen to blow out either Miami or Stanford as well as handle Navy easily that will more than seal it. Hopefully ND wins out but looks really good doing so against Miami and or Stanford in addition to a double digit win against Navy.

 

[Kelso86]

Well -- we shall see further where the committee's mind is after tonight!

 

[South Bender]

The fear that UGA/Alabama and ND should have is if Wisconsin goes undefeated and wins their conference championship game. They'd have a solid gold trump card if they did that, and the committee would put them in the top 4, probably with the #4 seed, at the expense of some other team. This, especially combined with teams like Clemson and Oklahoma winning out, could dramatically change the final top 4.

Again - Wisconsin's schedule is shit. They will most likely play a two-loss team in the BTCG. Not going to help their cause much. They're undefeated to date and they're ranked #9 for Christ sake!!

 

[OrlandoIrish]

Again - Wisconsin's schedule is shit. They will most likely play a two-loss team in the BTCG. Not going to help their cause much. They're undefeated to date and they're ranked #9 for Christ sake!!

Yep. Not sure how a single win over (what would be) at least a 3 loss team in the B10 championship game would change much.
As for Clemson, I think ND has defeated like opponents equally impressively (and much more so with NC State). Many blame the Syracuse loss on Bryant being out/hurt but ND had no trouble trashing North Carolina with Book all game...or most of Wake game without their Heisman contender.
All that said, if ND is as impressive as they have been the remainder of the year, as the committee obviously thinks they have been, can't imagine dropping them 2+ spots.

 

[justified1]

I want ND vs Alabama. Let’s find out if this is all real.

 

[chaseball]

This is a topic i've become quite passionate about since i seem to be at such odds with the rest of the fan base on this issue.

This isn't the BCS era anymore. WAAAY more factors are taken into consideration than a team's W-L record/a conference championship victory/etc.

Point differential, team efficiency, strength of schedule, film broken down on each contenders games, modern formulas/analytics, eye-test, etc. etc. all play a factor.

If you sat a 10 year old down and made him watch all of NDs games this season, vs that of Wisconsins, even the 10 year old would clearly be able to tell who the better team is.

ND has a +200 point differential vs a top 15 strength of schedule with their 1 loss coming by 1 point to the #1 team in the country. Wisconsin's strength of schedule is 68th and they almost got beat twice by bottom of the barrel P5 competition. Not only is Wisconsin no threat to NDs playoff bid if both win out, but ND is simply in another tier altogether.

 

[DieHard_Irish]

Look. I realize that every talking head now says ND is a lock if we win out. I want to believe that, but it’s not so simple.

First off, BEAT MIAMI!

If we do continue to win, this is what we’re up against:

http://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/21317065/tough-leave-unbeaten-power-5-team-cfp

I remember previous shenanigans with the Big Ten title game. How about OSU needing a big win in 2014 to get into the playoff. Wisconsin was only too happy to oblige laying down 59-0. Seriously? There should have been an investigation there!

I’ll say it again. No way we beat out a Big Ten champ unless we have a better record.

I am still very nervous about Clemson and Oklahoma. If both win out, there is a chance they jump us in the final ranking. Undefeated Wisconsin I think also jumps us.

I’m praying things go our way, but we may see a bitter finish to the season. Just have those pitchforks handy!

While I do appreciate your analysis, I must don't agree. I firmly believe given our record, our SOS, and our only loss being to UGA ... if we win out, we are in. So the focus has to be to keep winning and everything will be fine.

 

[ivan brunetti]

Wisconsin's situation also shows the down side of conference expansion. In the old days, members of the Big 10 played 8-9 conference games. They were assured that they would play at least two or three games against good opponents. Now, due to the Big 10 having two divisions, Wisconsin doesn't play Michigan St., Ohio St. or Penn St.

Every Big Ten team plays 9 conference games. What is hurting the Badgers is their signing to play a middling BYU and two cupcakes OOC.

However if they win out, they will probably make it in, as there should still be a few losses for the teams in front of them as of today.

 

[SiberianKnightmare]

The committee has proven over and over that it values "quality wins" above all other things. Undefeated or 1 loss is secondary to that.

UW won't be close to the number of quality wins that ND has. There best win will either be Ohio State or Michigan State. One has 2 blowout losses already and the other was thrashed by ND.

The Big 10 is out already.

 

[NDSMC78]

Every Big Ten team plays 9 conference games. What is hurting the Badgers is their signing to play a middling BYU and two cupcakes OOC.

However if they win out, they will probably make it in, as there should still be a few losses for the teams in front of them as of today.

Yeah, but not every Big 10 school plays a schedule which omits Penn St., Ohio St., and Michigan St. Wisconsin's best win is over Northwestern.

 

[ivan brunetti]

Yeah, but not every Big 10 school plays a schedule which omits Penn St., Ohio St., and Michigan St. Wisconsin's best win is over Northwestern.

True, but the Badgers have no control on who they play in the Big Ten East. When the 2017 schedule was signed, I think Alvarez expected the team to be in rebuilding mode under Gary Anderson. But if they miss out due to a crap OOC schedule, it is their own fault.

If they beat Iowa, Michigan and either MSU or Ohio State, that should be enough to get them in. Assuming that the usual number of losses occur to teams now above.

 

[NDSMC78]

True, but the Badgers have no control on who they play in the Big Ten East. When the 2017 schedule was signed, I think Alvarez expected the team to be in rebuilding mode under Gary Anderson. But if they miss out due to a crap OOC schedule, it is their own fault.

If they beat Iowa, Michigan and either MSU or Ohio State, that should be enough to get them in. Assuming that the usual number of losses occur to teams now above.

The moral of the story is this: every team in the Big 10 west should realize that it is possible that a given year's schedule might not include a combination of three of the four of Michigan, Michigan St., Ohio St., and Penn St.. Knowing this, they must schedule at least one quality non-conference opponent every year. Wisconsin failed to do this and it is going to come back and bite them.

 

[bizzybecknd]

I'd argue BYU was a quality opponent when scheduled, they're having a horrendous year.

 

[ivan brunetti]

I'd argue BYU was a quality opponent when scheduled, they're having a horrendous year.

BYU is okay but they aren't the kind of marque program that can balance out Utah St and Florida Atlantic. They should have signed something like Florida State, BYU and Utah State. At least then they could be given the benefit of the doubt that they at least tried to challenge themselves.

 

[beachcardinal]

Look. I realize that every talking head now says ND is a lock if we win out. I want to believe that, but it’s not so simple.

First off, BEAT MIAMI!

If we do continue to win, this is what we’re up against:

http://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/21317065/tough-leave-unbeaten-power-5-team-cfp

I remember previous shenanigans with the Big Ten title game. How about OSU needing a big win in 2014 to get into the playoff. Wisconsin was only too happy to oblige laying down 59-0. Seriously? There should have been an investigation there!

I’ll say it again. No way we beat out a Big Ten champ unless we have a better record.

I am still very nervous about Clemson and Oklahoma. If both win out, there is a chance they jump us in the final ranking. Undefeated Wisconsin I think also jumps us.

I’m praying things go our way, but we may see a bitter finish to the season. Just have those pitchforks handy!

If you win out you are in. Generally teams that don't have a conference championship are at a huge disadvantage. But this year the Pac-12 has deservedly eliminated themselves. The big ten may not field a team unless Wisky wins out. So even giving the SEC two teams, which is probably what will happen, the Irish are safe at three.

Irish, Big 12, Big 10 and SEC or two SEC's and no big ten. Either way, Irish stay.

 

[zonairish]

I would be more worried about Wisconsin knocking out any 1 loss team

 

[notredamerises23]

This is a topic i've become quite passionate about since i seem to be at such odds with the rest of the fan base on this issue.

This isn't the BCS era anymore. WAAAY more factors are taken into consideration than a team's W-L record/a conference championship victory/etc.

Point differential, team efficiency, strength of schedule, film broken down on each contenders games, modern formulas/analytics, eye-test, etc. etc. all play a factor.

If you sat a 10 year old down and made him watch all of NDs games this season, vs that of Wisconsins, even the 10 year old would clearly be able to tell who the better team is.

ND has a +200 point differential vs a top 15 strength of schedule with their 1 loss coming by 1 point to the #1 team in the country. Wisconsin's strength of schedule is 68th and they almost got beat twice by bottom of the barrel P5 competition. Not only is Wisconsin no threat to NDs playoff bid if both win out, but ND is simply in another tier altogether.

THIS. Thank goodness for the data age. Years ago, Miami and Wisconsin would be higher up because they were UNDEFEATED!11!

 

[tbonesays]

The committee has proven over and over that it values "quality wins" above all other things. Undefeated or 1 loss is secondary to that.

UW won't be close to the number of quality wins that ND has. .

UW didn't have QWs last year either. It's unclear if the committee really counts QWs because the playoff bottom feeders usually only had them in conference. Totally clear is that they only look at undefeated or 1 loss teams.