Oursider's View

[notredamerises23]

What's the entire story then?

That Clemson was much, much better than we were going into the game.

Vegas made us 14 point dogs (15% chance to win in their minds). People thought, “No way an undefeated team is that big of a dog.” Money came in droves and brought the line down to 10-11.

We were never comparable to them and were s tier below. In 1987 without advanced statistical models, we might think we’re better or equal based on record. We weren’t. If we WERE, then Vegas wouldn’t make us 14 point dogs.

 

[notredamerises23]

Statistics are like bikinis what they reveal is interesting but what they conceal is vital.

These aphorisms and proverbs are nice and folksy, but don’t give justice to the models publically available let alone the ones Vegas uses.

Obviously things can go against predicted models, but that’s not what the models say. The models don’t say “Clemson will in by 14 tonight and every night.”

The models say that based on EVERY DOWN PLAYED IN 2018 that if ND and Clemson played 100 times, Clemson’s average margin of victory will be about 14 points. That's a massive favorite.

 

[deadirishpoet]

What do you mean “all that”? When statistical models looked at every down played by both teams, they said that Clemson was between 8 to 16 points on average and that we’d win 15 out of every 100 games. They were massive favorites.

We didn’t have a great game, but it wasn’t primarily because of “Kelly’s performance.” We were overmatched and people knew it.

You know what I mean (2012)

You dont believe Brian Kelly not being able to adjust not to mention weeks of practice was a coaching issuse?

After 8 years vagas has just summed up Brian Kelly's performance and second undefeated team as a double digit underdog
Hum

 

[HarlemIrish]

Hum

8 years into a program and Vagas says Brian Kelly team didnt belong with a 12 -0 record....is that what I'm hearing

Yes, that’s what I’m say DIP ( one of my favorite posters).

 

[deadirishpoet]

That Clemson was much, much better than we were going into the game.

Vegas made us 14 point dogs (15% chance to win in their minds). People thought, “No way an undefeated team is that big of a dog.” Money came in droves and brought the line down to 10-11.

We were never comparable to them and were s tier below. In 1987 without advanced statistical models, we might think we’re better or equal based on record. We weren’t. If we WERE, then Vegas wouldn’t make us 14 point dogs.

Going in Clemson played a hard fought game against SCar ND did the same against SC. Clemson playing Pittsburgh might of kept them fresh for a bit but the Irish had plenty of time to get prepared

There was nothing to show that Clemson was able to put 30 let along much more if desired while holding ND to 3 pts total

Vagas made Bosie St a underdog in 2006 and 2009 in their bowl game I guess they can't always be right but maybe they didnt give Petersen the credit deserved

 

[deadirishpoet]

Yes, that’s what I’m say DIP ( one of my favorite posters).

Well thank you I guess all we can hope for is they top tier get worse because ND will have a hard time keeping with their recruiting under this coaching staff. Maybe a different staff but that means Kelly will have to change position coaches because at 12 and 0 he ain't going anywhere and nor should he with that record

 

[GoldCountryND]

Coaching or lack thereof does not and will not ever equate to being a 14 point dog. It matters, but not 14 points worth. I think people working in industry today understand how important data is. In my line of work, if I go into a meeting without data to support my argument, I’m blown the hell out of the room. When every single one of the statistical models says we’re a 10 point dog and gives us at best a 20% chance to win, well, I know it’s probably not going to go well.

Yesterday was disheartening. I watched with my brother (also an alum) and we felt in the second quarter that on every down (second quarter onwards) was us trying to hang on, make a play when there was no space to run or cstch balls, get a push against their OLine and pressure Lawrence who was making NO mistakes and looking like an NFL QB throwing 60 MPH outs.

We felt the players felt overmatched and gave up as Clemson backups come in and shoved us around.

Not sure where to go from here because we’ve maxed out our model. The Alabama, Ohio State, Clemson, Georgia football factories with their talent that may or may not actually go to class are hard as hell to defeat with their depth of talent thsts rested and coming off of all those practices.

Wish we could post this to the top of the board for years. 100% spot on. Nicely done.

 

[chitown sot]

Based on your posts that I've read, you do not possess the intellectual capacity to understand the argument I’m making.

Whatever, run all the numbers and analytical crap you want. The bottom line is ND was smoked again in a big game. I don't think anyone here would be bitching if the final score was 27-17 and ND was COMPETITIVE. Its the team/coaches looking lost, not making adjustments, doing the same $hit over and over that has fans ticked off. And guess what, it happens every big bowl game(Ohio ST, Alabamy, and now Clemson) under BK. 5 fricking weeks to prepare and come up with a decent game plan.

 

[Shulkswagen]

These aphorisms and proverbs are nice and folksy, but don’t give justice to the models publically available let alone the ones Vegas uses.

Obviously things can go against predicted models, but that’s not what the models say. The models don’t say “Clemson will in by 14 tonight and every night.”

The models say that based on EVERY DOWN PLAYED IN 2018 that if ND and Clemson played 100 times, Clemson’s average margin of victory will be about 14 points. That's a massive favorite.

Yeah I’m a CIO if a multi billion dollar global business so I do understand data ... models are valuable but limited especially when other variables are involved like human behavior, injuries, referees judgements and the bouncing of a funny shaped ball. Models predicted Hillary Clinton would handily defeat Donald Trump, amd would have given USA hockey essentially 0% chance to beat USSR.
I didn’t need complicated algorithms to see that Clemson had a more talented and deeper team than ND but the fun of sports is people sometimes rise to the occasion and no team stays static week to week. The models are inherently limited due to limited data, limited understanding of the variables and limited common opponents who of course are not even themselves the same team week to week ... so your point is taken and my folksy response is an easy way to say what I just said in more words ... the beauty of sports and all human competition is sometimes the unexpected happens amd new data emerges. Data has a place but I’d rather watch the real game then the virtual one.

 

[TimmyBobby]

Against common opponents your arguement falls short

The only one ND did better against was Cuse so it actually backs it up

 

[d1042]

I’ve rewatched the game. Very different than 2012.
ND competed.
ND was physical and fast on D.
ND was not quite at skill position level of CU, that made the difference.
ND was not embarressed nor overwhelmed as in 2012.

A few skill players sounds like a small thing, but it is not. A slight difference in talent at certain lositions can make a fairly even game into a seeming rout.

 

[TimmyBobby]

I’ve rewatched the game. Very different than 2012.
ND competed.
ND was physical and fast on D.
ND was not quite at skill position level of CU, that made the difference.
ND was not embarressed nor overwhelmed as in 2012.

A few skill players sounds like a small thing, but it is not. A slight difference in talent at certain lositions can make a fairly even game into a seeming rout.

I rewatched it too and it could have been much worse. The forward progress BS call was a fumble. Clemson played 2nd and 3rd string most of the 4th quarter. I think ND competed the 1st quarter yes. The rest not so much. The ND fans were awesome though. Best wishes

 

[notredamerises23]

the beauty of sports and all human competition is sometimes the unexpected happens amd new data emerges. Data has a place but I’d rather watch the real game then the virtual one.

Nobody is arguing to watch a “virtual game”rather than the real world one.

Yes, the unexpected DOES happen and yes, that’s the beauty of sports. But look at the word you chose—“unexpected.” An ND win WAS “unexpected.” What does “unexpected”mean? Why was it unexpected? Because Clemson was massively better and we should have expected a loss.

 

[notredamerises23]

I don't think anyone here would be bitching if the final score was 27-17 and ND was COMPETITIVE. .

You’re dead wrong here.

 

[Shulkswagen]

Nobody is arguing to watch a “virtual game”rather than the real world one.

Yes, the unexpected DOES happen and yes, that’s the beauty of sports. But look at the word you chose—“unexpected.” An ND win WAS “unexpected.” What does “unexpected”mean? Why was it unexpected? Because Clemson was massively better and we should have expected a loss.

Ok yes I get what you are saying and it makes sense. No arguing the better team won. That being said I hoped for and expected an ND win just as I did in 1993 FSU game which I also attended. In that game we had a significant coaching advantage and played at home ... neither was the case on Saturday.

 

[tkirish]

Most fans could handle a loss. But to be 12-0 and not showing up for a playoff game is what is really disappointing. Even Ohlahoma, a 14 point underdog made a run at Alabama. ND showed nothing. For all those who said ND was overrated and should not be in the playoff, how can anyone say they were wrong?

 

[d1042]

Most fans could handle a loss. But to be 12-0 and not showing up for a playoff game is what is really disappointing. Even Ohlahoma, a 14 point underdog made a run at Alabama. ND showed nothing. For all those who said ND was overrated and should not be in the playoff, how can anyone say they were wrong?

They were and still are wrong. ND is one of the best 6. And any of the best 6 could be playoff worthy.

 

[deadirishpoet]

The only one ND did better against was Cuse so it actually backs it up

Not so
Even though Syracuse was dominated by the Irish I suppose you can counter Clemson dominated Pitt, but all the other common opponents were practically evenly dominated....nothing but vagas to suggest Clemson was the dominate team. Their recent past could suggest the better team but not a dominate team.
Even their prior meetings Clemson barely beat the Irish and I believe they won the NC the same year.

Now moving forward. Bad will not beable yo keep up with the recruiting of Clemson, Bama, ect you have to counter their strengths their advantages.
Is Brian Kelly the right coach to do that?

Vagas doesn't thing so

 

[beachcardinal]

Against common opponents your arguement falls short

Lucky for me that isn't a good way to measure teams. If not ND, based on its record against SC, would be worse than Utah and on the same level as UCLA.

 

[lyonhawk]

If I know Irish fans, not only would we still be bitching about a 27-17 loss, there would probably be some complaining about a 27-17 win and how we didn't dominate enough and now have no chance against Bama.

 

[beachcardinal]

beach

If SC loses KK to UH, that is on Swann. He should have gotten the HC spot. KK can do much better than 2nd fiddle to Clueless Clay!

BTW KK turned down Houston

 

[d1042]

BTW KK turned down Houston

Good for you guys. Could KK be the de facto H.C.?

 

[Patrirish]

YOU DONT GO 12-0 WITHOUT TALENTED PLAYERS !

 

[deadirishpoet]

Lucky for me that isn't a good way to measure teams. If not ND, based on its record against SC, would be worse than Utah and on the same level as UCLA.

Well played brother

 

[HarlemIrish]

There was a reason Clemson was a 12 to 14 point favorite. Vegas gave us a 15%to 17% chance to win. We play 10 times and they win 8 times. The Tigers were just a superior team. People here didn’t want to accept that and kept talking about “Clemson didn’t play anybody, who did they dominate?” etc. Every statistical model had us, on average, 10 points worse than Alabama, Clemson, and Georgia.

Now with, bettter execution we play a closer game, but the stronger, better team that would win most of the time against us won.

Additionally, the extra practices benefitted the younger players of Clemson (most of their 4 and 5 star talent are freshmen and sophomores) more than our experienced players. Lawrence benefitted the most. He continually got better this year, but he was another level yesterday.

Great posts throughout. Do you work in finance? What can the Irish do to compete with the big boys?

 

[d1042]

Great posts throughout. Do you work in finance? What can the Irish do to compete with the big boys?

Pay or pay better! Staff and players.

 

[beachcardinal]

Well played brother

We have to get drinks sometime.

 

[Patrirish]

Notre Dame’s lopsided 30-3 loss had nothing to do with recruiting.

It had nothing to do with talent.

Those are weak excuses.

So now Furman, Georgia Southern, Georgia Tech, Syracuse, Florida State, Louisville, South Carolina, Pitt, Texas A & M and Boston College recruit better and have more talent than Notre Dame ?

Not one team on Clemson’s entire 2018 schedule scored fewer points than ND. not one team !

Furman scored 7

Georgia Southern scored 7

Georgia Tech scored 21

Syracuse scored 23

Florida State scored 10

Louisville scored 16

South Carolina scored 35

Pitt scored 10

Texas A & M scored 26

Boston College scored 7

NOTRE DAME SCORED 3

Notre Dame scored 3 after a month’s preparation!

30-3 wasn’t about recruiting and talent !

It was about preparation and coaching, including game plans and in game adjustments.

Not true you say ?

Then go back and look at the points that Clemson’s inferior opponents scored and compare them to Notre Dame’s 3 points.

Deja Vu, all over again !

 

[notredamerises23]

Great posts throughout. Do you work in finance? What can the Irish do to compete with the big boys?

Thank you, HI. I actually work in corporate data analytics. My brother works in finance. ND has been very good to both of us (he got he
Is MBA at ND, too)

It begins with the school’s philosophy—how badly do we want to compete with these football factories? I see only one way to get the type of recruits who can help us compete with football factories and that’s to lower academic requirements and expectations for these athletes, probably provide “benefits,” and step off the “Notre Dame way” some.

But Alabama goes even further by setting up a professional like competition in which players not good enough get bumped by new players. He players expect this knowing that the NFL looks favorably at the process.

So we want to be that type of school? I really don’t, but at the same time, how can we compete in these bowl games when these young players mature and come at us in droves? Our current model maxes out at getting lucky with development with players at the right time and having them all pan out. This team with Nelson and Martin would be much more competitive, but getting everything to develop perfectly and hoping for new injuries....that’s a tough ask.

As for a coaching change, it’s too risky. It’s very difficult to win here at ND and I’m not sure anyone who’s available would be able to twice run 12-0. What we can do is pay assistants commensurate with what other schools do, but I don’t know if that’s a priority for the school.

I asked my brother what he thought and I know this sounds snobbish/elitist, but he wouldn’t want to change the culture of the team and program in order to compete with football factories. I think most ND grads and the admin agree with him.

It’s just kind of a depressing reality.

 

[Shulkswagen]

Kelly and Co run the program well but we’ve seen the ceiling which is to play mistake free football and have the schedule break favorably to get to 12-0 and then hope for two big upsets ... it’s hard to imagine ND getting to the level of being overwhelming favorite in a 4 team playoff ... as an alum in my fifties I’m completely fine with where we are as a football program and as a University ... couldn’t be prouder in fact.

I do believe there is a better coaching option out there but it will come with big risk of going back to where we were for two decades.

 

[hoopsstar12]

Mark Rodgers yahoo sport's did an entire show proving ND and Clemson are way closer than score indicated.