OT Stock Market

[deadirishpoet]

The U.S. consumer is 'walking towards a cliff,' strategist warns

Trouble is brewing for the U.S. consumer, according to one strategist, and a substantial labor market downturn could kick-start a recession.

www.cnbc.com

I know its CNBC but the guy gives some good reasons for his view

Personally speaking I am in the same boat as a lot of people; going to have to scale back on spending to pay down debt.

I also listen CNBC aswell Bloomberg, FOXB to get a feel of the situation.
I'm not sure if what is happening with the NASDAQ is something ominous,or if some power players manipulating it for greater gains
I'm fortunate I got CRWD at $162 and Ford reaching an agreement helped out CPS, but I'm taking it on the chin with GOGGL/AAPL
I'll check it out thanks

 

[banmate6]

I pick this post for a question I have.....what are your feelings about a crypto ETF?

I don't like crypto for anything but speculation. Notably indeed called it crypto and not cryptocurrency, which is misleading and fooling many.

I use the classic definition of currency/money:

• A stable store of value.
• A medium of exchange.
• A unit of measure.

Crypto is too unstable. It is not a widely accepted medium of exchange, needing currency conversion. Therefore it is what it is...a store whose value is based on what people are willing to pay in a currency conversion.

If the day comes when it is a stable store of value, which would be nice...well, it won't feature high ROI, just like foreign currency exchange trading. For me it is casino to the nth degree. If you have a faster trigger finger, sure, but I wouldn't put serious money in it.

I put in $500 that has long been down 45% or so.

 

[banmate6]

Strange times
The Big Five all have good earnings yet today the market is taking a big hit (which is out of sync), but could means good bargains, but what looks up feels down

That's the thing, most instruments are still overvalued. I think the S&P500 had a PE = 24 last week. Normally it is 15...correlated to normalized interest rates.

We're looking to normalize interest rates given inflation and the Fed. I think back to 4% - 6% prime. That is compelling yield, driving PEs back down for stocks. Remember, we have a 134% debt:gdp ratio needing to be pared to help quell inflation here...or rates can go up even more.

I'm not saying prices will dive. The E might rise without such a steep drop in P. But nobody knows for sure...so I remain dollar cost averaging into index funds...while buying individual stocks only truly undervalued in any context.

The only stocks in my screening that stand out right now are TSN and CVS. It's not kid in a candy store time. That last was in 2008 and 2018.

 

[burmafrd1943]

That's the thing, most instruments are still overvalued. I think the S&P500 had a PE = 24 last week. Normally it is 15...correlated to normalized interest rates.

We're looking to normalize interest rates given inflation and the Fed. I think back to 4% - 6% prime. That is compelling yield, driving PEs back down for stocks. Remember, we have a 134% debt:gdp ratio needing to be pared to help quell inflation here...or rates can go up even more.

I'm not saying prices will dive. The E might rise without such a steep drop in P. But nobody knows for sure...so I remain dollar cost averaging into index funds...while buying individual stocks only truly undervalued in any context.

The only stocks in my screening that stand out right now are TSN and CVS. It's not kid in a candy store time. That last was in 2008 and 2018.

I doubt rates are going down anytime soon. The latest GDP report added to the other indications argue against the Fed loosening.

 

[raulduke_007]

I don't like crypto for anything but speculation. Notably indeed called it crypto and not cryptocurrency, which is misleading and fooling many.

I use the classic definition of currency/money:

• A stable store of value.
• A medium of exchange.
• A unit of measure.

Crypto is too unstable. It is not a widely accepted medium of exchange, needing currency conversion. Therefore it is what it is...a store whose value is based on what people are willing to pay in a currency conversion.

If the day comes when it is a stable store of value, which would be nice...well, it won't feature high ROI, just like foreign currency exchange trading. For me it is casino to the nth degree. If you have a faster trigger finger, sure, but I wouldn't put serious money in it.

I put in $500 that has long been down 45% or so.

Im in the top 600 holders of Dogelon Mars. While its a Meme coin I got in during the Crypto winter. If it get the usual Binance/Coinbase bounce plus remember Bitcoin halves next year. If it hits .00001 im gonna make some serious cash. Its a total gamble I basically rolled the dice on most of my Horse racing winnings (up 12k since last years Breeders Cup.) Crypto that I DCA is XRP & Crypto Coin.

 

[banmate6]

I doubt rates are going down anytime soon. The latest GDP report added to the other indications argue against the Fed loosening.

I agree. We’re going back to >= normalized rates.

We’ve been in a secular cheap money cycle since Greenspan.

Hence my caution on stocks and markets.

 

[raulduke_007]

I doubt rates are going down anytime soon. The latest GDP report added to the other indications argue against the Fed loosening.

Cant complain about 4.9 GDP growth, Ford settled with UAW, even the housing market with ridic interest rates is better than expected. The CHIPs act and infastructure bill have been game changers to our long term economic health. Mr Magoo Biden has delivered.

 

[ivan brunetti]

Picked up some Vanguard small cap today. Gotta buy when there is fear in the air!

 

[banmate6]

Cant complain about 4.9 GDP growth, Ford settled with UAW, even the housing market with ridic interest rates is better than expected. The CHIPs act and infastructure bill have been game changers to our long term economic health. Mr Magoo Biden has delivered.

I don't factor partisan politics because they don't matter in the long run.

But it sure would be nice to sustain 4.9% GDP growth, which I am not sure is possible...minding that we might experience an nth wave industrial revolution on cloud, big data, AI, and robots.

If so, it would allow PEs to compress more gracefully, rather than abruptly.

Still, today the S&P500 PE ratio is 23.62. Yet the Fed Funds rate is 5.5%! 4% - 6% usually correlates to a historical PE of ...so, caution is in order.

 

[raulduke_007]

I don't factor partisan politics because they don't matter in the long run.

But it sure would be nice to sustain 4.9% GDP growth, which I am not sure is possible...minding that we might experience an nth wave industrial revolution on cloud, big data, AI, and robots.

If so, it would allow PEs to compress more gracefully, rather than abruptly.

Still, today the S&P500 PE ratio is 23.62. Yet the Fed Funds rate is 5.5%! 4% - 6% usually correlates to a historical PE of ...so, caution is in order.

I say this as someone that is the brain trust of a 100 million dollar company. While I still classify our company as a small business given our structure we dominate our market share. We were preparing for a slow down in sales partly because of inflation but also sales slow down this time of year, but the opposite has happened. Our overall revenue is up. Individual sales is up. While we are waiting for the bottom to fall out we keep being surprised at the numbers. I cant explain it.

 

[burmafrd1943]

I agree. We’re going back to >= normalized rates.

We’ve been in a secular cheap money cycle since Greenspan.

Hence my caution on stocks and markets.

One cannot forget that its consumer spending that powers the economy. IF that starts to slide so does it.

 

[deadirishpoet]

I don't like crypto for anything but speculation. Notably indeed called it crypto and not cryptocurrency, which is misleading and fooling many.

I use the classic definition of currency/money:

• A stable store of value.
• A medium of exchange.
• A unit of measure.

Crypto is too unstable. It is not a widely accepted medium of exchange, needing currency conversion. Therefore it is what it is...a store whose value is based on what people are willing to pay in a currency conversion.

If the day comes when it is a stable store of value, which would be nice...well, it won't feature high ROI, just like foreign currency exchange trading. For me it is casino to the nth degree. If you have a faster trigger finger, sure, but I wouldn't put serious money in it.

I put in $500 that has long been down 45% or so.

Thank you your insightis much appreciated....I was just wondering because I missed out when it was practically a penny stick for lack of a better word, but now since highend car manufacturers are taking it i was looking at another way of getting into it reasonably.

 

[deadirishpoet]

Cant complain about 4.9 GDP growth, Ford settled with UAW, even the housing market with ridic interest rates is better than expected. The CHIPs act and infastructure bill have been game changers to our long term economic health. Mr Magoo Biden has delivered.

Intel is looking good today considering what the PC market is which helped all the other chip manufacturers but there was way to much pork in the infrastructure bill

 

[deadirishpoet]

I say this as someone that is the brain trust of a 100 million dollar company. While I still classify our company as a small business given our structure we dominate our market share. We were preparing for a slow down in sales partly because of inflation but also sales slow down this time of year, but the opposite has happened. Our overall revenue is up. Individual sales is up. While we are waiting for the bottom to fall out we keep being surprised at the numbers. I cant explain it.

People are buying with credit

 

[deadirishpoet]

One cannot forget that its consumer spending that powers the economy. IF that starts to slide so does it.

When they can't afford anymore credit' or can't payback what they spent then it will show the weakness of the FEDs inaction

 

[burmafrd1943]

When they can't afford anymore credit' or can't payback what they spent then it will show the weakness of the FEDs inaction

Yep.

 

[banmate6]

I say this as someone that is the brain trust of a 100 million dollar company. While I still classify our company as a small business given our structure we dominate our market share. We were preparing for a slow down in sales partly because of inflation but also sales slow down this time of year, but the opposite has happened. Our overall revenue is up. Individual sales is up. While we are waiting for the bottom to fall out we keep being surprised at the numbers. I cant explain it.

As I posted earlier, I don't do too much deep analysis beyond what I showed, which might be summarized as:

1) Dollar cost average into the S&P500 as a whole relative to PEs and interest rates...in pursuit of 9% CAGR over 20 year time horizons.

2) Individual stocks: mostly value investing analysis, but some non-GAAP chasing of high growth companies.

As you confirm, corporate earnings can be deceptive in assessing overall market movement. Especially a small cap. In contrast, value is value...eternally.

As such, markets remain overvalued, as obviously are many individual stocks. Hence I'm defensive right now.

 

[deadirishpoet]

As I posted earlier, I don't do too much deep analysis beyond what I showed, which might be summarized as:

1) Dollar cost average into the S&P500 as a whole relative to PEs and interest rates...in pursuit of 9% CAGR over 20 year time horizons.

2) Individual stocks: mostly value investing analysis, but some non-GAAP chasing of high growth companies.

As you confirm, corporate earnings can be deceptive in assessing overall market movement. Especially a small cap. In contrast, value is value...eternally.

As such, markets remain overvalued, as obviously are many individual stocks. Hence I'm defensive right now.

I just hope GOOGL get some gains soon so I can dump it and not as big a hit as if I were to dump it now

 

[burmafrd1943]

Well the Fed is showing some common sense by leaving rates alone

 

[deadirishpoet]

Well the Fed is showing some common sense by leaving rates alone

I was just texting the same plus Powell is still trying to hit 2%
With the new aid packages that's a pipe dream

 

[deadirishpoet]

The FED is trying to fix today's problems with yesterday's solutions

 

[burmafrd1943]

The FED is trying to fix today's problems with yesterday's solutions

They worship at the altar of Voelker

 

[ivan brunetti]

The FED is trying to fix today's problems with yesterday's solutions

The FED has a limited number of tools at its disposal. What should they do, from where we are sitting *today*? It seems they are limited to either standing pat or raising the rate by another .25 point. What else do you expect?

 

[banmate6]

The FED has a limited number of tools at its disposal. What should they do, from where we are sitting *today*? It seems they are limited to either standing pat or raising the rate by another .25 point. What else do you expect?

I agree. We've painted ourselves into a corner with such heavy debt and low rates. Inflation fighting is the lesser of evils now...mandating sustained higher rates.

As is famously said: time to pay the piper.

Let's hope GDP growth can accelerate and make this a more graceful reduction of debt and PEs.

 

[deadirishpoet]

I agree. We've painted ourselves into a corner with such heavy debt and low rates. Inflation fighting is the lesser of evils now...mandating sustained higher rates.

As is famously said: time to pay the piper.

Let's hope GDP growth can accelerate and make this a more graceful reduction of debt and PEs.

Gotta disagree the FED acted to late then to strong.....bad combination

 

[deadirishpoet]

Gotta disagree the FED acted to late then to strong.....bas combination

I knew after the auto industry worked out their issues CPS would be the winner .....up 36% this morning $$$$$$

 

[deadirishpoet]

The FED has a limited number of tools at its disposal. What should they do, from where we are sitting *today*? It seems they are limited to either standing pat or raising the rate by another .25 point. What else do you expect?

Are you under the assumption they didn't see this coming when president Biden decapitated fossil fuels?
Every and i mean every business outlet started talking about the impact on the market on what president Biden did and the implications of so much free money in the economy and zero interest fir this long. Some were hoping Green Energy stocks would fill the void but didn't
And then you got Janet Yellen and the rubbish coming out if her mouth si the FED knew this needed to be fixed, but waited to long and then compounded that by going to hard.

 

[Telx1]

I just hope GOOGL get some gains soon so I can dump it and not as big a hit as if I were to dump it now

DIP…if you believe google is a good investment, consider dumping now and buying back after thirty days. That way you get the tax write off, but the upside you expect. However, I personally assess my individual stock investments on a very regular basis, and any decision to hold onto a stock is based on whether I still consider it a good investment, and NEVER based on some hope of recovering some loss. Taking a hit and investing the proceeds in a stock I believe is a better investment has served me well.

 

[deadirishpoet]

DIP…if you believe google is a good investment, consider dumping now and buying back after thirty days. That way you get the tax write off, but the upside you expect. However, I personally assess my individual stock investments on a very regular basis, and any decision to hold onto a stock is based on whether I still consider it a good investment, and NEVER based on some hope of recovering some loss. Taking a hit and investing the proceeds in a stock I believe is a better investment has served me well.

Thanks for the tip I dumped it yesterday with a slight gain which was a blessing (funny thing is I don't use Gpoggle i use Brave ) i picked Google up because it was taking a hit over the cloud issue, and I expected Google to come out with a statement but it was radio silent and i thought crap this might hurt lol. I just sold CPS. 46% gains don't come often.

 

[deadirishpoet]

Just in from CNBC the FED might raise interest rates a quarter basis point.
I thought this was mixed into futures?
How does that change that?

 

[deadirishpoet]

Read the chart in the link. Wages are growing at a rate higher than inflation in the past six months. Maybe not YOUR wages, but on average.

I heard for the first time wages are keeping up with the inflation but mostly Red states. A guest on Charles Payne program stated this, but when I try to find consensus it's difficult
I will say your comment is true in somepart.
As for me I was smart with my retirement and never lived above my means.
I do enjoy this day trading thing with some fun money I put away

 

[burmafrd1943]

Wages might be growing in some places faster than inflation but its spotty. And then there are the increases in housing costs and medical costs and so on and I bet the people who are technically doing better sure do not fee like it.
and look at how much ground was lost in the time of high inflation.

 

[deadirishpoet]

Wages might be growing in some places faster than inflation but its spotty. And then there are the increases in housing costs and medical costs and so on and I bet the people who are technically doing better sure do not fee like it.
and look at how much ground was lost in the time of high inflation.

Oh I'm definitely agreeing, I thought I should point out there are some agreeing with his opinion,
but it was in red state where that was happening

 

[burmafrd1943]

Oh I'm definitely agreeing, I thought I should point out there are some agreeing with his opinion,
but it was in red state where that was happening

terrible shock is it not?

 

[deadirishpoet]

terrible shock is it not?

I tip my hat

 

[deadirishpoet]

It was quite unnecessary for the FED to speak today considering
A) they spoke last week
B) Powell didn't say anything substantial

He just wrecked the market for the day.
He could of said what he needed to say after the market closed

 

[deadirishpoet]

Oct CPI comes out at 0830 tomorrow
Interesting Powell was set on no rate hike last month then shaked things up last week....I wonder if that was an early forecast tomorrows CPI?

 

[banmate6]

It's fine to follow key events. But overall this market is still expensive and dangerous because the Fed has little wiggle room with a high debt:gdp ratio and inflation. And keep in mind we're nearly 2 years in a bear market! I'm surprised it has gone on so long, but it is what it is.

My strategy remains:

1) dollar cost average in 401k and 529 index funds.

2) keep looking for value in individual stocks, like TSN or a quasi-cyclical like GLW.

 

[deadirishpoet]

It's fine to follow key events. But overall this market is still expensive and dangerous because the Fed has little wiggle room with a high debt:gdp ratio and inflation. And keep in mind we're nearly 2 years in a bear market! I'm surprised it has gone on so long, but it is what it is.

My strategy remains:

1) dollar cost average in 401k and 529 index funds.

2) keep looking for value in individual stocks, like TSN or a quasi-cyclical like GLW.

There is a 38% increase in first time investors realizing the power every individual in controlling their own wealth. You add that new capital with the printed money still in the market and you got some if the smartest people second guessing. Jamie Dimon who said a hard landing was around the corner which didn't happen, and listen to that cat when ever he speaks but if it's hard for him then someone like me just takes it day by day literally becoming a day trader.

The FED is still not aware 2% is a pipe dream.
The pro bonds crowd is still using the old trade a bear market is a bond market.
Tomorrows CPI could put a reality check to the market if its low, but if it's high all bets are off.
I thought DIS was going to be a loser today with all the streaming companies taking a hit, but it's doing nicely today though I will dump it prior to closing
I think with all the issue in the middle east endpoint-protection companies will still do well,
I imagine the pre market will be active in the morning just in front of the CPI report and could tell if the article in Bloomberg is sound.

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

www.bloomberg.com

 

[john0gaunt]

Am I the only one loving these higher rates? I'm hoping for another increase..

I'm also in risk assets big time, but I'm fine letting them grow more slowly over the next few years with normalized rates...