Going for the first time this year and I absolutely will be wagering. Any horse racing afficionados here ? I could use some guidance on who to bet.
OT: Kentucky Derby
- Thread starter echowaker
- Start date
Baffert coming a 2 year ban at Churchill his horses will be doped up for sure.
The Derby is great to attend in person at least once. In a twenty horse field, almost anything can happen. I’ll have a better sense once the post positions/jockeys are determined.
Funny you say that. I just started watching Netflix doc called Racing for the Crown. It's interesting. Must admit I know nothing about horse racing.
Enjoy sitting in millionaires row, drinking Dom Perignon, discussing NIL deals.
If you want my advice on how to bet. I say ignore the odds, trust the vibe. 60% of the time, it works every time.
Tough race to bet. Really tough. 20 ways to lose in a 20 horse field.
I like Rodriguez.
The spring of my freshman year at ND one of the guys from my dorm invited about 4 or 5 of us to come down to Kentucky with him to watch the Derby. He lived in Louisville. I knew absolutely nothing about horse racing, but the Derby was a famous race and it sounded like it might be a good time, so I made the trip with him. He was a race fan and kept telling us about this chestnut colored colt by the name of Secretariat.
The rest, of course, was history. Secretariat won the Triple Crown that year, setting record times in all 3 races. I think his times in the Derby and the Belmont still stand as record times. I am not sure about the Preakness. If you haven't watched it, go on You Tube and watch Secretariat win the Belmont. It might have been the greatest horse race ever run. He won by 31 lengths, or some crazy number.
At the time I didn't know there were something like 10 races run before the actual Derby; by the time the horses got to the post to run the Derby I had already consumed a few mint juleps and wasn't feeling much pain. We watched the races from the infield, with all the other college kids. The high society types sat in the grandstands, with the women all decked out in the traditional hats and heels. It was quite the sight.
Based upon my buddy's recommendation I won a couple of bucks betting on Secretariat, but I think I lost every other bet I made that day. I knew nothing about racing, so that is hardly a surprise. I wish I had kept my bet stub from Secretariat. It might be worth something today.
That day is a great memory. The 1973 Kentucky Derby was the only horse race I have ever attended. Nothing else could possibly have ever stacked up to that experience.
The rest, of course, was history. Secretariat won the Triple Crown that year, setting record times in all 3 races. I think his times in the Derby and the Belmont still stand as record times. I am not sure about the Preakness. If you haven't watched it, go on You Tube and watch Secretariat win the Belmont. It might have been the greatest horse race ever run. He won by 31 lengths, or some crazy number.
At the time I didn't know there were something like 10 races run before the actual Derby; by the time the horses got to the post to run the Derby I had already consumed a few mint juleps and wasn't feeling much pain. We watched the races from the infield, with all the other college kids. The high society types sat in the grandstands, with the women all decked out in the traditional hats and heels. It was quite the sight.
Based upon my buddy's recommendation I won a couple of bucks betting on Secretariat, but I think I lost every other bet I made that day. I knew nothing about racing, so that is hardly a surprise. I wish I had kept my bet stub from Secretariat. It might be worth something today.
That day is a great memory. The 1973 Kentucky Derby was the only horse race I have ever attended. Nothing else could possibly have ever stacked up to that experience.
Last edited:
Got invited by my neighbors brother in law who has some sort of connection through his work. Supposed to be four of us going and I'm just tagging along. I think I was the player to be named later. Wasn't about to turn down the invite though. Kind of a bucket list thing.Funny you say that. I just started watching Netflix doc called Racing for the Crown. It's interesting. Must admit I know nothing about horse racing.
Enjoy sitting in millionaires row, drinking Dom Perignon, discussing NIL deals.
If you want my advice on how to bet. I say ignore the odds, trust the vibe. 60% of the time, it works every time.
I’m betting Rodriguez my self to win the run for the roses. Good pic.
Those closer types just aren’t the right formula to win the derby. Too many horses.
I expect a fast pace since there seems to be plenty of early speed in the race. I think it sets up for a stalker or even a closer (if the pace is real hot) to win. Journalism is a deserving favorite. Sovereignty, Sandman and Burnham Square are horses that will benefit from a fast pace. I also like Tappan Street to be sitting right behind the early speed.
Rodriquez looks a need to lead type horse. I expect a 46 and change half mile at the least and maybe faster. He may be talented enough to get a piece of the tri or superfecta but I think the fast pace will do him in.
There are some interesting longshots (Publisher, Grande, Tiztastic) that could hit the board if they can improve off of their most recent starts and some of the favorites don't show up.
Rodriquez looks a need to lead type horse. I expect a 46 and change half mile at the least and maybe faster. He may be talented enough to get a piece of the tri or superfecta but I think the fast pace will do him in.
There are some interesting longshots (Publisher, Grande, Tiztastic) that could hit the board if they can improve off of their most recent starts and some of the favorites don't show up.
The "run for the roses" reference in your post sentimentally reminded me of one of my favorite Dan Fogelberg songs, by the same name: "Run For The Roses." I am not a horse guy, but I think the song beautifully captures what it must be like to train a 3-year old thoroughbred for his shot at 2 minutes of fame. "It's the chance of a lifetime in a lifetime of chance." They are remarkable gifts of nature.
Good to hear from you capiche. Appreciate your input. This year could be the year of the closer !
Masters Golf and the Kentucky Derby. Two epic sporting events.
I'm a huge Fogelberg fan.
I was one of 90,000 that packed the Rose Bowl last Friday night to watch AC/DC. I was high up; away from the stage; however, an epic Friday night near the San Gabriel Mountains.
I am a huge AC/DC fan.
Yeah, Fogelberg was great. I got turned on to him while I was at ND; my roommate was a big fan. I think we must have almost worn out his "Souvenirs" LP. We played it ALL the time. I sort of miss the days of vinyl LP records; they sounded so much better than CDs. Another album we wore out was Led Zeppelin IV. We'd turn the stereo volume up with "Rock and Roll" and the walls of the room would shake.
Fogelberg was such a gifted song writer. We lost him way too soon.
That same roommate turned me on to John Prine. I had never heard of the guy before. We went to see Prine perform at a little coffee house in Chicago and I was just blown away, and was a fan ever since. Another gifted song writer. Like Fogelberg, he wrote so many great and under appreciated songs.
Tappan Street out and Render Judgment in the Derby field. I thought Tappan Street was a major contender to hit the board in the race.
I know I am getting old when I want to watch the Kentucky Derby only to see women in big flowery hats sing My Old Kentucky Home.
I think both of Baffert's horses, Rodriquez (PP4) and Citizen Bull (PP1) will be sent early for the lead. Both American Promise (PP 5), and Neoequos (PP2), have early speed. Owen Almighty (PP20) has to go early to get a good position so he isn't hung 4 or 5 wide going into the 1st turn. Of all the front runners, East Avenue (PP12) might have drawn the best. He could leave the gate, see how the inside speed horses are positioned, and drop right behind the early pacesetters.
Remember, Rodriquez got away with moderate fractions (47.44s half) in a 7 horse field in the Wood. I expect the half in be run in the low 46s, or an even faster pace in the Derby. Rodriquez 2 wins have come in gate to wire fashion, Can he sit (rate) behind another one of the other speed horses if they beat him out of the gate.
I will say this. You will be handsomely rewarded if Rodriquez wins. I expect he will be close to the ML 12-1 odds, probably higher if Baeza gets into the field. If you like him so much, I would also box him with some of the lower odds horses that will be stalking the pace. Even if he runs 2nd, a $2 exacta could pay at least $70-$75 if Journalism, the favorite, wins.
Betting Journalism in an ideal post position 8, I admit, is the easier play.
I simply like Rodriguez's chances.
Secretariat....Superhorse. I remember watching him win all three legs of the Triple Crown on TV my senior year of high school. It was obvious back then in real time that something very special about this horse was going on. He still holds the track record for all three Triple Crown races...which have all be going on since the 1860s or 70s. That is amazing, if not unthinkable. In the Derby, each 1/4 mile leg was faster than the previous one. I watch these races....but I can't help but look back every time to the GOAT.....Secretariat. The movie that was made about him wasn't easy to make because it was difficult to find a horse that even remotely resembled Big Red....a massive, incredible speciman. One of a kind.
The minimum superfecta bet is $1 on both Oaks and Derby day. Too expensive to play especially if you think 7-8 horses could hit the board. If you key Journalism, on top, I could see 4 or 5 horses run second (or worse) and add another 2-3 horses to round out the superfecta. I looking at 8,9,10,13,17,18 in my exacta and trifecta plays. I would add Baeza if he gets in the field.
Appreciate the input my friend. I’ve been pretty lucky the last 15 years or so betting the triple crown I always do an exacta on the derby and go for the superfecta on a race like the Belmont when we get down to 8-10 horses max. If I am certain on a particular horse to win I may take him and wheel the field. Curious to hear your input on my strategy.
This may be the year to key a horse on top in exotic plays. I've played the Derby over 30 years and don't know if I've ever done it (even in 2015 with American Pharoah). We may have a horse to provide the opportunity to do it.
Secretariat was indeed one of a kind.
Years ago SI ran a great story on Secretariat's life, called "Pure Heart." It is worth the read if you haven't seen it before.
Pure Heart: The thrilling life and emotional death of Secretariat
The latest SI 60 is 'Pure Heart,' William Nack's 1990 story on the life and death of Secretariat.
SI ran another story a couple of years ago, on the 50th anniversary of Secretariat's Derby win, about the improbability of his record still standing after all these years. It is another good read.
Fifty Years Later, Secretariat’s Triple Crown Run Still Seems Unbeatable
Humans in other sports hold records, but Secretariat’s dominance in 1973 has stood the test of time and is, in a word, unassailable.
I saw an article where it said every horse in the Derby is a descendant of Secretariat. If true that's pretty incredible.Secretariat was indeed one of a kind.
Years ago SI ran a great story on Secretariat's life, called "Pure Heart." It is worth the read if you haven't seen it before.
Pure Heart: The thrilling life and emotional death of Secretariat
The latest SI 60 is 'Pure Heart,' William Nack's 1990 story on the life and death of Secretariat.www.si.com
SI ran another story a couple of years ago, on the 50th anniversary of Secretariat's Derby win, about the improbability of his record still standing after all these years. It is another good read.
Fifty Years Later, Secretariat’s Triple Crown Run Still Seems Unbeatable
Humans in other sports hold records, but Secretariat’s dominance in 1973 has stood the test of time and is, in a word, unassailable.
He will need to be more closer to pace today compared to the Santa Anita derby. If the jockey runs the same way as Santa Anita he will lose today. Too many horses to maneuver around. Jmo.
A system I used back in the 70's.
Preliminarily pick three or four middle odds horses -- say, 4 to 1 to 8 to 1 -- depending on how many like that are running. Then as the clock winds down to the bell, see which horse's or horses' odds start dropping the most -- the point being, those who know something start, at that point, PILING IN.
AT TIMES -- not always -- this worked QUITE WELL FOR ME.
