OT: Colorado v Nebraska
- Thread starter chaseball
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They are a sleeping giant. All it takes is the right hire for them to take off. Same here at ND.
Lol. We’re nowhere near a sleeping giant. We’ve been a Top10 program for a decade now. We need to get over the hump for the next level, but that’s about it.
Nebraska only wishes it was a Top50 program over that same timeframe.
Of course it counts, please explain how i'm not being consistent here? I've posted about Nebraska's F+ (I don't cite PFF). They were ranked 59th coming into this game, and NC State was ranked 54th. I think I made this point in this very thread. F+ is a good measure of skill because it takes a lot of history into account (many games and several recruiting cycles go into this ranking including the productivity of the players who are returning from last year and including the games played this season)
Sample size matters in a big way. Everything I opine on comes with a heavy consideration of history and sample size.
No they are not. They haven't lost less than 4 games since 2003. They have no in state players and they dont belong in the Big 10. They're in trouble
F- is the worst system at ranking teams. No one cares. They are 4 and 10 simce last year. 0 and 2 this year. They arent even close to NC state. Just total nonsense
There’s no way whatsoever you’re going to convince anyone that NCST is #54. That’s way too low. I mean get real.
Your F+ sounds a lot like the Sagarin rankings that required 7-8 games before it was realistic
ND and Nebraska are two of the biggest revenue generators in the sport. Major TV ratings and sold out stadiums at increasing prices every single week. Nebraska has been down over the last 20 years or so but if they get the right person in there they can explode as a program. They are one of the 8 blue bloods of the sport.
Nebraska is toast in the BIG 10, stick a fork in them. They have zero chance to win a conference title.
You’re the only one posting their shit here every other day. Give it a rest and see if anybody else gives a damn
When you've been dominating college football for 100+ years, 20 years is a drop in the bucket. It always comes down to money. Whatever program out there is generating the most money is always only one good hire away from ascending back to the top. But I digress.
Nebraska recruits better than NC state and they played a way more difficult big10 schedule than NC state's ACC slate. So even though NC state has more wins than Nebraska in recent years, in a head to head match up F+ doesn't see them as much different in terms of their quality.
You are still trying to measure pitchers by their wins and losses; the industry is measuring pitchers by their win shares, league adjusted fielding independent pitching stats, and their exit velos now though /end analogy
It's time to see the bigger picture and move forward.
Nebraska recruits better than NC state and they played a way more difficult big10 schedule than NC state's ACC slate. So even though NC state has more wins than Nebraska in recent years, in a head to head match up F+ doesn't see them as much different in terms of their quality.
You are still trying to measure pitchers by their wins and losses; the industry is measuring pitchers by their win shares, league adjusted fielding independent pitching stats, and their exit velos now though /end analogy
It's time to see the bigger picture and move forward.
Northern Illinois and Louisiana Tech at home are next for Nebraska.
Might get a win.
You watched both games today and with a straight face think Nebraska and NCST are about the same? Unreal. I would only buy that argument if your F+ had a variance of at least 10 points between the #54 & #59 teams.
Nc state is a way better team than Nebraska. It's not even close
That's part of the problem. People way over estimate their ability to evaluate accurately with their eyeballs. As an ND fan, I'm hoping ND just took it to a really good NC State team -- and who knows maybe they did?
But if my mortgage was on the line, and I had to guess which teams were going to win in head to head matchups , give me the *right* data over someone whose judging with their eye-balls and gut instinct alone. And I'll be right far more often on aggregate as a result.
Again, you watched #59 Nebraska play today, right? You know, against your #71 Col team? And you also watched a similar to Nebraska #54 NCST team against a #6 ND team, right? Which team looked completely lost against an inferior opponent and which team played a vastly superior team decently for 3 quarters?
Don’t bet the house brother 😂
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Nebraska is 5 and 19 the last 2 plus years against fbs teams with 0 ranked wins
Nc state is 16 and 9 the last 2 plus years with 3 ranked wins
These teams arent even close. One is a good program. The other is a doormat
Any ranking that puts them even remotely close is a joke
I've been posting about F+ for over a decade now back when the stat was in its infancy and published at a sabermetric football site most people never heard of. Since then one of the authors of the stat (Bill Connelly) is now publishing his metrics and analysis at ESPN. And Brian Fremaeu, the other author of the stat is an ND alum with a background in math/data science.
Point being, this isn't my stat, it's a comprehensive metric that makes a ton of theoretical sense, authored by educated professionals and takes into consideration a lot of well vetted predictive components in football statistics and has the respect of the industry at large.
Me personally? I trust this metric more than I trust my own eyeballs when it comes to evaluating and stacking up all 133+ teams in college football.
Point being, this isn't my stat, it's a comprehensive metric that makes a ton of theoretical sense, authored by educated professionals and takes into consideration a lot of well vetted predictive components in football statistics and has the respect of the industry at large.
Me personally? I trust this metric more than I trust my own eyeballs when it comes to evaluating and stacking up all 133+ teams in college football.
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I don't know if Nebraska will ever wake up to become a giant once again; but there is no reason that with time, Rhule can't build them into a ten win version of Wisconsin or Iowa.
He needs time. He doesn't have a QB, and we all have seen how bad a team can look when they have terrible QB play.
He needs time. He doesn't have a QB, and we all have seen how bad a team can look when they have terrible QB play.
QB is very important for sure, but I think it's a talking point used to excuse away a lot of problems in a program.
if a team is losing in many areas of their program, just blame bad QB play, and you seem to get a pass. Especially at Notre Dame
I also think good team play enables good QB play. e.g. you need a line that can protect, you need RBs to keep the opposing DBs honest, you need WRs that can block and separate, you need a defense that can get stops and set up good field position, you need effective coaches to run the operation, etc. etc.
It's VERY rare that you find GREAT QBs dominating college football on bad teams. Most of the elite QBs in college football are products of elite rosters (that have great players and coaches everywhere on both sides of the ball) and I think that gets overlooked often
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LOL, this is too easy, but I will embarrass you one more time
so...if history counts, why are you so big on the Colorado win over Nebraska? Colorado, despite being a .350 team the last 6 years, still beat Nebraska both times they played them prior to yesterday.
AND, Nebraska has lost to Northern Illinois, Troy, Georgia Southern over that same period. Yup, that Nebraska team/program you are claiming to be as good as NC State, and are quoting previous history to argue such....over that time period has been 1-6 against Minny, 1-4 against NW, 0-3 against Wisky, 1-4 against Purdue, 0-7 against Mich and OSU, 1-3 against Iowa. BUT THEY DID BEAT ARKANSAS STATE, BETHUNE COOKMAN, SOUTH ALABAMA, FORDHAM, BUFFALO, AND NORTH DAKOTA. AND ALSO BEAT BOTTOM FEEDERS RUTGERS, ILLINOIS.
So your argument that Nebraska is a good program, by any and all data that you try to quote, is FALSE.
Thx for trying out
A celebrity HC beats 2 bad teams and the media runs with it because of who the HC is like it's the next best thing since the announcement of a playoff system and you think we should all be in awe is hilarious
exactly. I mean Deion is doing well, he has energized that program, but those teams are not good this year
Playoff TCU is not a bad team nor have they been for 15 years. If we played @TCU we would be singing MF praises for winning the big one.
CU didn't play the TCU playoff team,and if MF beat the TCU playoff team we would indeed praise him for winning the big one
I was referring to this scenario where we schedule a road game at TCU to open the season. Likewise no one schedules Nebraska under the assumption they will remain an easy team.
I think we got caught up in having two separate conversations a long the way which is probably confusing a lot of people so let me clarify.
1. I don't think Nebraska is a good program right now, or even a good team in 2023. My argument was that Nebraska and NC State are pretty similar quality of teams in 2023 based on their respective F+ rankings through 2 games. It's unfair to say Colorado hasn't done anything yet, while at the same time praising ND for their win when both teams played similar quality opponents.
2. I think Nebraska is a sleeping giant as a program not based on recent results but based on the fact that it's Nebraska (they are in the same class as an OU, Bama, ND, OSU, USC, etc. historically).They are one of the most fan supported brands in the sport (similar to ND). Even when they lose they sell out 99% of their games. They are old money. And when they finally get the right people running the show they have all the peripheral-components needed to win at the highest level (money, brand, prestige, connections, fan loyalty, conference, power, etc.)
3. Nebraska recruited the 25th ranked class to NC state's 43rd ranked class last year (and the F+ formula puts quite a bit of weight on this early on in the season)
4. Nebraska's team talent ranking in 2023 is 21st to NC state's 38th which is also considered in the F+ formula early on.
5. F+ puts a lot of weight on how well a team performed vs the quality of the opponent, not just on the final score. W-L record is considered in the formula but not to the same degree as say a resume ranking like the AP Poll.
F+ is way more concerned with how well your team performed from play to play AGAINST the quality of your opponent more so than just the final score. My guess is that Nebraska despite losing more games than NC State last year did enough against the quality of their opponents to be viewed as a similar quality team to NC State even though NC State ultimately won more games.
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I think it's impressive that Coach Prime has taken over a program as bad as the CU Buffs were last year and has started the season 2-0. Everything that program is doing under Coach Prime is dominating headlines and this forum is also a college football forum. The topic was tagged with "OT" to give those a heads up who weren't interested in non ND related topics.
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IDK about the F-, but if they had Nebraska and NCC that close it’s highly suspect. NCC is a top 20 defense, has beaten some top 20 teams the last years and is always a tough out. Nebraska has been a door Matt and I don’t remember them upsetting anyone let alone a top 25 team.
Something seems suspect with that rating.
So you're a paparazzi?
I don't quit rememver you being this impressed with let's say someone like Lance Leipold who has less name recognition and who is bring back a program that was in worse shape.
J understand the topic, but i was attempting to stop you from from drooling over a celebrity who has yet completed a season for proper perspective
I just looked this up for shits and giggles. Nebraska won 10 games in the last 3 years. NC state 25 over the same period.
Something is way off on that ranking system. Nebraska has averaged 3.3 wins a year and NC 8,33. No way they are even close.
Something is way off on that ranking system. Nebraska has averaged 3.3 wins a year and NC 8,33. No way they are even close.
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