Notre Dame in striking distance despite injuries and poor schedule

[chaseball]

The competition has been dog turd but ND is putting the kind of beatings on dog turd teams you would expect from a playoff quality team. After last week, F+ is showing more parity in the top 10 teams (2 teams are a cut above, but then the teams positioned 3-10 are not separated to the extent they usually are). Any signs of parity at the top of the rankings is good news for NDs deep playoff run/national title chances so something to keep an eye on going forward.

NDs 2024 defense has produced to a #3 ranking in the country and offense has climbed back up to top 20 after running over Stanford.

Impressive season so far by coach Freeman, he's in striking distance despite his roster being hit with injury after injury to some of the most important players on his 2 deep. He just keeps producing no matter how many players go down. BenMo is the latest. Can it continue?

Latest ranking updates through week 7 (including FPI), and including NDs 2024 opponents:

Team	Conf.	W-L	F+	FPI
Notre Dame	IND	5 - 1	8​	6​
Texas A&M	SEC	5 - 1	14​	12​
Northern Illiniois	MAC	4 - 2	90​	80​
Purdue	BIG10	1 - 5	91​	102​
Miami (OH)	MAC	2 - 4	96​	86​
Louisville	ACC	4 - 2	22​	16​
Stanford	ACC	2 - 4	88​	91​
Georgia Tech	ACC	5 - 2	45​	42​
Navy	AAC	5 - 0	67​	71​
Florida State	ACC	1 - 5	69​	67​
Virginia	ACC	4 - 2	59​	65​
Army	AAC	6 - 0	40​	51​
USC	BIG10	3 - 3	16​	13​

 

[mrwigglesby21]

Surprised to see USC still at 16/13 but they have played the toughest schedule in the nation.

Top 4 defense with a top 20 offense should be able to beat any team on any day if all things go remotely well.

 

[Chitown11]

The competition has been dog turd but ND is putting the kind of beatings on dog turd teams you would expect from a playoff quality team. After last week, F+ is showing more parity in the top 10 teams (2 teams are a cut above, but then the teams positioned 3-10 are not separated to the extent they usually are). Any signs of parity at the top of the rankings is good news for NDs deep playoff run/national title chances so something to keep an eye on going forward.

NDs 2024 defense has produced to #3 in the country and offense has climbed back up to top 20 after running over Stanford.

Impressive season so far by coach Freeman, he's in striking distance despite his roster being hit with injury after injury to some of the most important players on his 2 deep. He just keeps producing no matter how many players go down. BenMo is the latest. Can it continue?

it's very rare for ND to finish inside the top 10 in F+, they finished #8 last year, and are at least #8 in two separate systems midway through 2025, all very good signs of a legit competitive playoff team.

Latest ranking updates through week 7 (including FPI), and including NDs 2024 opponents:

Team	Conf.	W-L	F+	FPI
Notre Dame	IND	5 - 1	8​	6​
Texas A&M	SEC	5 - 1	14​	12​
Northern Illiniois	MAC	4 - 2	90​	80​
Purdue	BIG10	1 - 5	91​	102​
Miami (OH)	MAC	2 - 4	96​	86​
Louisville	ACC	4 - 2	22​	16​
Stanford	ACC	2 - 4	88​	91​
Georgia Tech	ACC	5 - 2	45​	42​
Navy	AAC	5 - 0	67​	71​
Florida State	ACC	1 - 5	69​	67​
Virginia	ACC	4 - 2	59​	65​
Army	AAC	6 - 0	40​	51​
USC	BIG10	3 - 3	16​	13​

WGAFF about F+, no one cares

 

[Golson5]

The competition has been dog turd but ND is putting the kind of beatings on dog turd teams you would expect from a playoff quality team. After last week, F+ is showing more parity in the top 10 teams (2 teams are a cut above, but then the teams positioned 3-10 are not separated to the extent they usually are). Any signs of parity at the top of the rankings is good news for NDs deep playoff run/national title chances so something to keep an eye on going forward.

NDs 2024 defense has produced to #3 in the country and offense has climbed back up to top 20 after running over Stanford.

Impressive season so far by coach Freeman, he's in striking distance despite his roster being hit with injury after injury to some of the most important players on his 2 deep. He just keeps producing no matter how many players go down. BenMo is the latest. Can it continue?

it's very rare for ND to finish inside the top 10 in F+, they finished #8 last year, and are at least #8 in two separate systems midway through 2025, all very good signs of a legit competitive playoff team.

Latest ranking updates through week 7 (including FPI), and including NDs 2024 opponents:

Team	Conf.	W-L	F+	FPI
Notre Dame	IND	5 - 1	8​	6​
Texas A&M	SEC	5 - 1	14​	12​
Northern Illiniois	MAC	4 - 2	90​	80​
Purdue	BIG10	1 - 5	91​	102​
Miami (OH)	MAC	2 - 4	96​	86​
Louisville	ACC	4 - 2	22​	16​
Stanford	ACC	2 - 4	88​	91​
Georgia Tech	ACC	5 - 2	45​	42​
Navy	AAC	5 - 0	67​	71​
Florida State	ACC	1 - 5	69​	67​
Virginia	ACC	4 - 2	59​	65​
Army	AAC	6 - 0	40​	51​
USC	BIG10	3 - 3	16​	13​

Awful ranking system

 

[Harpo Marxist]

Awful ranking system

Teams like USC and Louisville need to keep winning. ND needs help with this schedule.

 

[Golson5]

Teams like USC and Louisville need to keep winning. ND needs help with this schedule.

No it doesn't. Win and we're in. Schedule is fine

 

[NDblitz]

Surprised to see USC still at 16/13 but they have played the toughest schedule in the nation.

Top 4 defense with a top 20 offense should be able to beat any team on any day if all things go remotely well.

No they haven't UCLA by far has.

Hawaii -A
Indiana - H
LSU - A (Not neutral)
Oregon - H
P-State - A
Minnesota - H

 

[savvyandsassier]

WGAFF about F+, no one cares

What's the extra 'F' for? Is that in honor of the F+?

 

[NDblitz]

No it doesn't. Win and we're in. Schedule is fine

No it doesn't. Win and we're in. Schedule is fine

Eveyone keeps saying USC.... USC... meanwhile Army and Navy are lurking. LOL! they go 6-0 and nobody respects them still. Hopefully ND does.

 

[Chitown11]

What's the extra 'F' for? Is that in honor of the F+?

flying

 

[mbd11]

Teams like USC and Louisville need to keep winning. ND needs help with this schedule.

Keep winning? USC needs to start winning again. They've lost 3 of their last 4 games.

Right now we've got Texas A&M, Army and Navy as our 3 ranked opponents. Not what we envisioned before the season LOL.

 

[BleedingBlueNGold]

Even if ND squeaks into the playoffs, they will be out sooner rather than later. Too many injuries and not enough depth to be able to make a deep playoff run. I personally predicted this team goes 8-4 prior to the season after Jagusah went down. I personally don't see this team in the playoff.

 

[NDblitz]

Even if ND squeaks into the playoffs, they will be out sooner rather than later. Too many injuries and not enough depth to be able to make a deep playoff run. I personally predicted this team goes 8-4 prior to the season after Jagusah went down. I personally don't see this team in the playoff.

NIU game really comes back to haunt again. No more mulligans. But at this point with so many injuries I don't feel like a loss is completely the fault of the team or coaches. At some point certain positions will become liabilities due to lack of numbers. It will be interesting to see if this team can rally 6 times and what kind of coaching job they do. But I feel like 9-3 10-2 is the most likely scenario.

 

[NIN Irish]

Even if ND squeaks into the playoffs, they will be out sooner rather than later. Too many injuries and not enough depth to be able to make a deep playoff run. I personally predicted this team goes 8-4 prior to the season after Jagusah went down. I personally don't see this team in the playoff.

Chaseball likes this.

 

[mbd11]

NIU game really comes back to haunt again. No more mulligans. But at this point with so many injuries I don't feel like a loss is completely the fault of the team or coaches. At some point certain positions will become liabilities due to lack of numbers. It will be interesting to see if this team can rally 6 times and what kind of coaching job they do. But I feel like 9-3 10-2 is the most likely scenario.

If we keep playing like we did against Stanford, we can go 11-1 IMO. After Stanford's initial drive, we outscored them, 49-0. And that's a team that beat Syracuse, which is 5-1. But we've been very inconsistent, obviously. We sometimes have stretches where we play very mediocre for a couple quarters. We have to avoid those, and play well for 4 quarters every game.

 

[chaseball]

USC is some better luck/a few ball bounces away from being 5-1

They beat a good LSU team, and their 3 losses were all 1 possession games against good competition.

 

[savvyandsassier]

If we keep playing like we did against Stanford, we can go 11-1 IMO. After Stanford's initial drive, we outscored them, 49-0. And that's a team that beat Syracuse, which is 5-1. But we've been very inconsistent, obviously. We sometimes have stretches where we play very mediocre for a couple quarters. We have to avoid those, and play well for 4 quarters every game.

We keep going with the transitive principle again. I think everyone knows what Stanford is, post David Shaw. They're a P5 academic program, they're okay, they'll have some good players, like Duke or NW. And they'll win some and lose some, and going 6-6 would be pretty standard fare. it doesn't really matter they gave Syracuse their lone loss. Doesn't move the needle in terms of significance.

Just the same, it was a very impressive win. 49-7. Against a lower tier P5 team, but nevertheless very impressive. That's why we shouldn't have dropped in the rankings. But I guess the pollsters didn't think Stanford's big win over Syracuse counted for none too much, vis a vis ND's evolving CV for the season. Or even less a computer poll.

 

[mbd11]

We keep going with the transitive principle again. I think everyone knows what Stanford is, post David Shaw. They're a P5 academic program, they're okay, they'll have some good players, like Duke or NW. And they'll win some and lose some, and going 6-6 would be pretty standard fare. it doesn't really matter they gave Syracuse their lone loss. Doesn't move the needle in terms of significance.

Just the same, it was a very impressive win. 49-7. Against a lower tier P5 team, but nevertheless very impressive. That's why we shouldn't have dropped in the rankings. But I guess the pollsters didn't think Stanford's big win over Syracuse counted for none too much, vis a vis ND's evolving CV for the season. Or even less a computer poll.

A couple weeks earlier, Clemson beat Stanford 40-14, and jumped us in the next poll. Now they're 2 spots ahead of us. Team stats for those games:

Total yards: ND 477, Stanford 200
Clemson 405, Stanford 361

So we dominated them statistically better than Clemson did. It's just one game, but hopefully the team can keep it up.

 

[chaseball]

Below is the standard deviation between teams in the top 15 over the last 5.5 seasons. A smaller number means teams in the top 15 are closer aligned in quality that season. A larger number means that there's greater distance between quality of teams in the top 15 that season.

2024​	0.3458​
2023​	0.3844​
2022​	0.4880​
2021​	0.4608​
2020​	0.4776​
2019​	0.3855​

Its just the halfway point in the season but through 7 weeks (2024) there's definitely more parity among the top 15 teams in college football (the standard deviation is at its lowest point since 2019) which bodes well for NDs playoff run in the event they get there. A lower standard deviation means less super teams to have to get through in the playoff.

 

[Golson5]

Keep winning? USC needs to start winning again. They've lost 3 of their last 4 games.

Right now we've got Texas A&M, Army and Navy as our 3 ranked opponents. Not what we envisioned before the season LOL.

Schedule is fine

 

[Golson5]

Even if ND squeaks into the playoffs, they will be out sooner rather than later. Too many injuries and not enough depth to be able to make a deep playoff run. I personally predicted this team goes 8-4 prior to the season after Jagusah went down. I personally don't see this team in the playoff.

Well you were definitely wrong on the 8 and 4 so we'll see

 

[mrwigglesby21]

No they haven't UCLA by far has.

Hawaii -A
Indiana - H
LSU - A (Not neutral)
Oregon - H
P-State - A
Minnesota - H

Why you so angry bro?

ELO Strength of Schedule (SOS) - FBSCollege Football | WarrenNolan.com

2024 College Football ELO Strength of Schedule (SOS) Updated in REAL-TIME for Every Team at the Completion of Every Game.

www.warrennolan.com

 

[Golson5]

USC is some better luck/a few ball bounces away from being 5-1

They beat a good LSU team, and their 3 losses were all 1 possession games against good competition.

Minn was a bad loss.

 

[chaseball]

Awful ranking system

Which one? Essentially im showing 3 different ranking systems now (SP+, FEI, and FPI).

Eveyone keeps saying USC.... USC... meanwhile Army and Navy are lurking. LOL! they go 6-0 and nobody respects them still. Hopefully ND does.

It's worth noting that military academies don't really fit these advanced ranking models all that well due to the nature of their offense so those triple option teams could be a lot better or worse team than what is indicated in these rankings.

 

[chaseball]

Minn was a bad loss.

They are a mid 30s ranked team and would be the 4th best team on NDs 2024 schedule

 

[NDblitz]

Why you so angry bro?

ELO Strength of Schedule (SOS) - FBSCollege Football | WarrenNolan.com

2024 College Football ELO Strength of Schedule (SOS) Updated in REAL-TIME for Every Team at the Completion of Every Game.

www.warrennolan.com

Oh you’re one of those. Disagreeing means angry lol!

 

[NDblitz]

Then give me “stats” proving my point.

 

[Golson5]

They are a mid 30s ranked team and would be the 4th best team on NDs 2024 schedule

No and No

 

[mbd11]

They are a mid 30s ranked team and would be the 4th best team on NDs 2024 schedule

They also lost at home to UNC, which is a very average team.

 

[chaseball]

They also lost at home to UNC, which is a very average team.

You judge a team based on all of their performance. Their win-loss record isn't great, but they have a tough BIG10 schedule, and they've played good teams close in their losses, and have a nice win over USC. Their 2024 season performance has them as the 37th ranked team in the country according to F+, with a really solid top 25 defense.

 

[Golson5]

You judge a team based on all of their performance. Their win-loss record isn't great, but they have a tough BIG10 schedule, and they've played good teams close in their losses, and have a nice win over USC. Their 2024 season performance has them as the 37th ranked team in the country according to F+, with a really solid top 25 defense.

They beat Rhode Island (stinks) Nevada (stinks) UCLA (stinks) USC (good win)

So 1 good win

They lost to North Carolina (average) Iowa (average) Michigan (good)

So they have 1 good win and have lost to 2 average teams

The schedule isn't tough like you make it out to be through 7 games

 

[sjb75]

Schedule is fine

The schedule is fine because Notre Dame is not at Texas on Saturday.

If Notre Dame was at Texas on Saturday, and played at Alabama earlier in the season, at Mississippi later, then played Tennessee, the schedule would not be fine.

So yes, it’s fine.

 

[Golson5]

The schedule is fine because Notre Dame is not at Texas on Saturday.

If Notre Dame was at Texas on Saturday, and played at Alabama earlier in the season, at Mississippi later, then played Tennessee, the schedule would not be fine.

So yes, it’s fine.

Yeah. It's fine. Not a great schedule. Not a terrible schedule. It's fine.

 

[NDblitz]

****ing Carl Contrarion. If someone says the schedule is fine. He says it's not fine. If they say it's not fine he says it's fine. Sky is blue... You get the picture.

 

[chaseball]

Another thing to keep in mind is that these ranking systems have no way to account for the injuries that have been piling up over the last several weeks. This BenMo injury is a MAJOR loss to the team (he's a legit top 15ish overall NFL prospect).

It's going to be really tough to maintain a top 10 ranking going forward with all of the roster attrition/injuries that have been piling up over the course of the season.

 

[chaseball]

****ing Carl Contrarion. If someone says the schedule is fine. He says it's not fine. If they say it's not fine he says it's fine. Sky is blue... You get the picture.

My issue with Golson5 is that he's approaching things anti intellectually.

My posts contain references to credible systems, resources, experts, professionals, etc. im using data/evidence to formulate the opinions I post.

Golson5 is over here shooting from the hip using nothing but anecdotal evidence.

"Schedule is fine"
"team x is good"
"team y is bad"

etc. etc. etc.

According to what? according to who? according to you? lol

 

[sjb75]

****ing Carl Contrarion. If someone says the schedule is fine. He says it's not fine. If they say it's not fine he says it's fine. Sky is blue... You get the picture.

I actually agree with Golson. It’s fine. It isn’t as weak as it’s made out to be, but it’s certainly not as tough as others.

It’s fine.

 

[mbd11]

You judge a team based on all of their performance. Their win-loss record isn't great, but they have a tough BIG10 schedule, and they've played good teams close in their losses, and have a nice win over USC. Their 2024 season performance has them as the 37th ranked team in the country according to F+, with a really solid top 25 defense.

Their defense is pretty good. But their mediocre offense also made UNC's defense look decent, which is hard to do LOL. UNC gave up 70 to James Madison and has the 100th-ranked defense in the country, in total defense.

 

[Golson5]

****ing Carl Contrarion. If someone says the schedule is fine. He says it's not fine. If they say it's not fine he says it's fine. Sky is blue... You get the picture.

Are you talking about me?

Because I've said the schedule is fine before the season, during the season, and right now

Nothing contrarion about my opinion

 

[Juniper_Run]

Win and we're in. Schedule is fine

I completely agree that we're assured a playoff spot if we win out. We're not assured a home game though, and it would be amazing to have our first ever playoff game in ND Stadium. That's why I'm still paying attention to teams like A&M or Louisville and rooting hard for them.