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Week 6 F+ Update: 8 of 10 Top 10 teams in the country are SEC & BIG10 | Notes about Notre Dame/College Football

chaseball

I've posted how many times?
Sep 8, 2007
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These two conferences (SEC & BIG10) are monopolizing most of the talent in college football as well. These conferences are also working towards some kind of scheduling and playoff agreement: I really hope ND has a strategic response in order to not get left out/left behind, but I digress.

F+/FBS Notes
  • Remember these rankings are opponent and luck neutralized (e.g. nobody is getting a pass for playing easier opponents or experiencing more luck in their season)
  • There were several upsets last week, but as expected, none of these upsets had much impact on the overall F+ ratings of these teams, outside of Michigan dropping from #13 to #19. And Texas A&M saw a big jump from ~20th to 14th.
  • There's been a lot of discussion about more parity in college football right now due to NIL and transfer portal, but if you look at the F+ ratings, OSU is out in front of everybody by a mile right now, and then there's a clear top ~5 or so teams in the country before a big drop off (which is in alignment with the team talent rankings at 247).
  • As the sample size grows/season wears on, these F+ rankings get more accurate. We're almost at the midway point of the season. Last year, at the 6 week point, F+ nailed Michigan as the #1 team in the country and had 3 of the 4 eventual playoff teams (as selected by the playoff committee) ranked inside the top 5, and all 4 playoff teams ranked in the top 10.
Notre Dame Notes
Top 15 in F+ through week 6:
RANKTeamF+OffenseDefense
1​
Ohio State
2.36​
41
2​
Texas
2.18​
34
3​
Georgia
2.12​
56
4​
Oregon
2.00​
214
5​
Alabama
1.96​
613
6​
Ole Miss
1.87​
810
7​
Penn State
1.73​
105
8​
Tennessee
1.60​
188
9​
Miami
1.44​
732
10​
Notre Dame
1.42​
303
11​
LSU
1.38​
154
12​
Clemson
1.35​
1317
13​
Kansas State
1.27​
1423
14​
Texas A&M
1.16​
2618
15​
Oklahoma
1.14​
4912
 
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I checked the first page of the site and there are 8 threads you've started all basically of you complaining about ND administration and whining that you know better how to run one of the premier sports franchises globally and has been for ~100 years.

Perhaps just combine them all into one thread that we can all then ignore?
 
I checked the first page of the site and there are 8 threads you've started all basically of you complaining about ND administration and whining that you know better how to run one of the premier sports franchises globally and has been for ~100 years.

Perhaps just combine them all into one thread that we can all then ignore?
My posts on the front page besides this one (all with a lot of engagement from the community).
  1. OT: Alabama(#4) vs Georgia(#1)

  2. OT: TAMU(#23) vs MIZZOU(#14) - Game Discussion

  3. NEW AD Pete Bevacqua admits ND will need to invest heavily in NIL & facilities in order to compete for *football* national titles

  4. OTish: Anybody else think its kind of funny how much is demanded of the coaching staff and nobody advocates for them?

  5. Mike Denbrock's 4yr/$9M contract not looking good right now

  6. Marcus Freeman & Al Golden killing it on the defensive side of the ball

There's no common theme. If you dont like what I have to say about Notre Dame football, then don't read.
 
The only posts that don’t fit your ND bashing narrative are those discussing other teams.

Nobody doubts you’re a fan of other teams.
 
The only posts that don’t fit your ND bashing narrative are those discussing other teams.

Nobody doubts you’re a fan of other teams.
I have 6 topics on the front page (less this topic we're posting in).

None of them are bashing Notre Dame:

1 topic is praising the defense, 1 topic is criticizing the offense, 2 topics are off topic game discussion threads, 1 topic is talking about college football politics/football coach hardship, and 1 topic is from months ago referencing an interview with the new AD at Notre Dame about NIL.

I'd MUCH rather be discussing what this data is showing than talking about me or unrelated posts though.
 
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Because the data/evidence runs counter to all the bias and erroneous narratives that are floating around the football program. And the truth needs to be stated emphatically in order to increase the quality of the product.
 
Because the data/evidence runs counter to all the bias and erroneous narratives that are floating around the football program. And the truth needs to be stated emphatically in order to increase the quality of the product.
According to your "data" Notre Dame is the 10th best team in the country. Even higher than the Ap and coaches have them.

So according to you we are a little underrated by the media coaches and the narratives.

Got it
 
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According to your "data" Notre Dame is the 10th best team in the country. Even higher than the Ap and coaches have them.

So according to you we are a little underrated by the media coaches and the narratives.

Got it
The truth im speaking of goes beyond this season.

ND has been stuck right here at 10th-15th on aggregate for nearly 20 years now, while college football at the highest level of the sport is a 5 team/tier 1 competition for a national title.

Notre Dame is selling its product as a national title contender despite being multiple tiers away from that level (tier 2 or tier 3 depending on the team/season) and fans are buying the wolf tickets, and the ND media -- that is supposed to hold them accountable -- is complicit in it.
 
I don't understand why people bitch so much about Chase posting. If he didn't post, along with Golson, and a few others, where would this board be? In the grave, that's where.

At least he puts effort into his posts and refrains from name-calling and childlike behavior.
 
I don't understand why people bitch so much about Chase posting.

At least he puts effort into his posts and refrains from name-calling and childlike behavior.
Its a classic case of shooting the messenger.

People dont really have a beef with me as much as they have a beef with the data and analysis that im showing.
 
I don't understand why people bitch so much about Chase posting. If he didn't post, along with Golson, and a few others, where would this board be? In the grave, that's where.

At least he puts effort into his posts and refrains from name-calling and childlike behavior.
Because the poster is an incessant troll who adds nothing of substance. I stopped directly responding long ago. Others I do not respond to are 4-4-3 and SavvySassy.
 
I don't understand why people bitch so much about Chase posting. If he didn't post, along with Golson, and a few others, where would this board be? In the grave, that's where.

At least he puts effort into his posts and refrains from name-calling and childlike behavior.
I'm glad you asked this. The poster in question seems to spend an inordinate amount of time disparaging the ND administration to the point the front page of this board is littered with posts he starts. It's always the same narrative. As he says, don't read them if we don't want to, and normally I don't.

However, in a thread about a QB reversing his commitment, he complains that other posters have started 3 threads on the QB. One was just a discussion of the QB and his talent from before the decommit, the second was the fact of the decommit, then there was a third started by a poster that was more of an emotional, visceral reaction. So I simply asked, why is it OK for him to litter the board with his narrative, but he complains when the other posters discuss something that he didn't start.

Also, it's a bye week and that's the correct time to F with the trolls.
 
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I'm glad you asked this. The poster in question seems to spend an inordinate amount of time disparaging the ND administration to the point the front page of this board is littered with posts he starts. It's always the same narrative. As he says, don't read them if we don't want to, and normally I don't.

However, in a thread about a QB reversing his commitment, he complains that other posters have started 3 threads on the QB. One was just a discussion of the QB and his talent from before the decommit, the second was the fact of the decommit, then there was a third started by a poster that was more of an emotional, visceral reaction. So I simply asked, why is it OK for him to litter the board with his narrative, but he complains when the other posters discuss something that he didn't start.

Also, it's a bye week and that's the correct time to F with the trolls.
That's fair.

call the midwife GIF by PBS
 
Because the data/evidence runs counter to all the bias and erroneous narratives that are floating around the football program. And the truth needs to be stated emphatically in order to increase the quality of the product.
How does you "emphatically stating the truth" on a message board "increase the quality of the product?" What is your ultimate objective; to convince enough posters on this message board of your "truth", so that we may form an alliance with other message boards to galvanize and storm the castle with pitchforks and statistics in hand? If that's it, count me in, I'm always up for some good 'ole sedition.
 
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Its a classic case of shooting the messenger.

People dont really have a beef with me as much as they have a beef with the data and analysis that im showing.
Sorry buddy, but I feel like most people genuinely don't like you or your data. That's OK though, I think you are probably just misunderstood (like most revolutionaries). Once we foment our insurrection, we'll have this board goose-stepping in no time!
 
This is a power ranking. The ESPN FPI is also a power ranking. We're 7th in that right now. So the power rankings have us higher than the regular polls right now.
 
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This is a power ranking. The ESPN FPI is also a power ranking. We're 7th in that right now. So the power rankings have us higher than the regular polls right now.
FPI isn't a power ranking, its a simulation system. It simulates the remaining games on the schedule thousands of times and then provides a percentage chance of a W or L in those games based on the results of those simulations.

Teams with easier schedules will obviously have higher win percentage chance in a system like that. Not saying the tool is bad or wrong or anything, just a tool used for something else entirely.
 
This is not a resume ranking, its a forward facing ranking that uses the most predictive data in college football to show how teams stack up going forward.
What is it predicting, and what do you mean by "stack up"? That seems a little nebulous, and I want to be clear when I am out proselytizing.
 
FPI isn't a power ranking, its a simulation system. It simulates the remaining games on the schedule thousands of times and then provides a percentage chance of a W or L in those games.

Teams with easier schedules will obviously have higher win percentage chance in a system like that. Not saying the tool is bad or wrong or anything, just a tool used for something else entirely.
FPI stands for Football Power Index. The projections that they also show are separate from the power ranking.
 
FPI stands for Football Power Index. The projections that they also show are separate from the power ranking.
FPI is a good tool that shows you how well a team is expected to perform going forward based on the remaining opponents on schedule. It simulates the rest of the season thousands of times, and it uses a system similar to F+ (albeit nowhere near as comprehensive) to provide a measurement of team quality in which its simulations can use to provide results with.

Use FPI if you want to see how well Notre Dame will do vs the remaining teams on schedule and what their range of outcomes looks like in terms of final W-L record.

Use F+ if you want to know how all teams stack up in college football going forward (e.g. how much better is Notre Dame than LSU based on their performance to date down to the play by play level? )
 
I don't understand why people bitch so much about Chase posting. If he didn't post, along with Golson, and a few others, where would this board be? In the grave, that's where.

At least he puts effort into his posts and refrains from name-calling and childlike behavior.
Let it die if this is all we got. Would be interesting to see the direction the board would take with out the monopolization of these two.
 
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FPI is a good tool that shows you how well a team is expected to perform going forward based on the remaining opponents on schedule. It simulates the rest of the season thousands of times, and it uses a system similar to F+ (albeit nowhere near as comprehensive) to provide a measurement of team quality in which its simulations can use to provide results with.

Use FPI if you want to see how well Notre Dame will do vs the remaining teams on schedule and what their range of outcomes looks like in terms of final W-L record.

Use F+ if you want to know how all teams stack up in college football going forward (e.g. how much better is Notre Dame than LSU based on their performance to date down to the play by play level? )
FPI also uses a complicated formula involving past seasons, recruiting rankings, returning starters, etc, for its preseason rankings, then adjusts as the season goes on. Their formula is obviously different than the F+ formula, but the general idea of both is a power index.

Like I said, the projections for the season are in a separate column. That's not the same as the FPI rating.

 
  • Mike Denbrock, Riley Leonard, and others were brought in with a lot of financial investment to fix that side of the ball immediately, and so far, that plan has utterly failed.
Amen to that!
 
Chase puts a lot of work into the threads he starts. That makes them more fun to ignore.

Mr and Mrs Golson, I believe they are the New Jersey Golsons, are both ND fans with differing opinions. Both are valid, and both have every right to post here as much as anyone.

They just need to get a room and work things out...
 
FPI also uses a complicated formula involving past seasons, recruiting rankings, returning starters, etc, for its preseason rankings, then adjusts as the season goes on. Their formula is obviously different than the F+ formula, but the general idea of both is a power index.

Like I said, the projections for the season are in a separate column. That's not the same as the FPI rating.


Yes, they use a system that isn't anywhere near as comprehensive as F+ in order to feed its simulation system/engine. You can't just simulate games if you dont have some idea of what makes Notre Dame different than NIU.

F+ isn't trying to determine team quality to simulate games with. F+ is taking ALL of the best predictive performance data in college football down to the play by play level to show how teams stack up to one another based purely on that data. There are no simulations involved.

Again, if you want to see how Notre Dame will finish their season in terms of their win loss record based on 20,000 simulations, FPI is your tool.

If you want to see how Notre Dame stacks up with the rest of the teams in college football (opponent and luck neutralized) based on a comprehensive list of data down to the play by play level, F+ is your system.
 
Chase puts a lot of work into the threads he starts.
It takes me literally 10 minutes to write this up.

I'm going to look it up on my own and analyze the heck out of the results, might as well share my thoughts on the data with a community of intelligent and invested ND fans/ posters to discuss and get feedback on.
 
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Yes, they use a system that isn't anywhere near as comprehensive as F+ in order to feed its simulation system/engine. You can't just simulate games if you dont have some idea of what makes Notre Dame different than NIU.

F+ isn't trying to determine team quality to simulate games with. F+ is taking ALL of the best predictive performance data in college football down to the play by play level to show how teams stack up to one another based purely on that data. There are no simulations involved.

Again, if you want to see how Notre Dame will finish their season in terms of their win loss record based on 20,000 simulations, FPI is your tool.

If you want to see how Notre Dame stacks up with the rest of the teams in college football (opponent and luck neutralized) based on a comprehensive list of data down to the play by play level, F+ is your system.
But like I said, the predictions based on the 20,000 simulations are in a separate column. The FPI isn't based on the simulations; it's based on other data. From their website:

"Once the season is underway, the main piece of information powering these offensive, defensive and special teams predictions is past performance from that season’s games, in terms of expected points added per game. Expected points added, or EPA, is a measure of success/failure that takes into account yards, turnovers, red zone efficiency and more to determine how many points each unit is contributing to the team's scoring margin. For example, if a team wins by an average of 10 points per game, it could be that plus-seven of that is offense, plus-four is defense and minus-one is special teams. Because expected points added is built on play-by-play data, it’s fair to say that FPI looks at every play of every game in the season."

So it's the same idea as F+, in other words. It also uses play-by-play data.
 
Sorry buddy, but I feel like most people genuinely don't like you or your data. That's OK though, I think you are probably just misunderstood (like most revolutionaries). Once we foment our insurrection, we'll have this board goose-stepping in no time!
Why are you feeding the troll? Why?
 
Why are you feeding the troll? Why?
I don't know, he kind of got me excited about the possibility of some sort of revolution. It sounded like it could be fun. Besides, there's something about this guy; I don't know if he's a modern day John the Baptist, Che Guevara, or Charles Manson, but I have feeling if we all do what he says, we're in for a wild ride!
 
How does you "emphatically stating the truth" on a message board "increase the quality of the product?" What is your ultimate objective; to convince enough posters on this message board of your "truth", so that we may form an alliance with other message boards to galvanize and storm the castle with pitchforks and statistics in hand? If that's it, count me in, I'm always up for some good 'ole sedition.
I would leave the pitchforks out, that would just get you arrested. But this is the age of the internet, maybe you could start a groundswell, with a very specific grievance, and it could move the needle enough to make things happen. Spend money, we want to make the playoff, we want to be annual contenders. Maybe ND's alumnai/fan culture is so inured to not giving players anything all these years, that even though there is a lot of funds that could be tapped in theory, from boosters and such, that it's outside of ND's dna at this point, and we really can't compete for the best players head to head. And it's not just how squishy ND is about such things. I wouldn't know about that, I would assume ND's 'collective' has plenty of wherewithal at their disposal. And so you gotta dig even deeper, set your goals even higher when it comes to that shit. And get comfortable with it.

I would be very curious what ND's whole NIL arrangement actually consists of, seeing how, presumably, it's largely driven by their more performative sense of themselves, and their 'mission' as a home for authentic student-athletes and all that jazz, and the sanctity of that mission, and not simply about getting the best players and spending their money in the most purely practical and effective way as they can as far as roster mgt. goes.
 
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I would leave the pitchforks out, that would just get you arrested. But this is the age of the internet, maybe you could start a groundswell, with a very specific grievance, and it could move the needle enough to make things happen. Spend money, we want to make the playoff, we want to be annual contenders. Maybe ND's alumnai/fan culture is so inured to not giving players anything all these years, that even though there is a lot of funds that could be tapped in theory, from boosters and such, that it's outside of ND's dna at this point, and we really can't compete for the best players head to head. And it's not just how squishy ND is about such things. I wouldn't know about that, I would assume ND's 'collective' has plenty of wherewithal at their disposal. And so you gotta dig even deeper, set your goals even higher when it comes to that shit. And get comfortable with it.

I would be very curious what ND's whole NIL arrangement actually consists of, seeing how, presumably, it's largely driven by their more performative sense of themselves, and their 'mission' as a home for authentic student-athletes and all that jazz, and the sanctity of that mission, and not simply about getting the best players and spending their money in the most purely practical and effective way as they can as far as roster mgt. goes.
You lost me at no pitchforks.
 
Maybe ND's alumnai/fan culture is so inured to not giving players anything all these years, that even though there is a lot of funds that could be tapped in theory, from boosters and such, that it's outside of ND's dna at this point, and we really can't compete for the best players head to head. And it's not just how squishy ND is about such things. I wouldn't know about that, I would assume ND's 'collective' has plenty of wherewithal at their disposal. And so you gotta dig even deeper, set your goals even higher when it comes to that shit. And get comfortable with it.

I would be very curious what ND's whole NIL arrangement actually consists of, seeing how, presumably, it's largely driven by their more performative sense of themselves, and their 'mission' as a home for authentic student-athletes and all that jazz, and the sanctity of that mission, and not simply about getting the best players and spending their money in the most purely practical and effective way as they can as far as roster mgt. goes.

Liked for the quoted comments. That's how I see it.

The university cares more about its principles/culture (not paying players, not capitulating to HS prospects, instilling a sense of gratitude in their athletes for the privilege to play football at ND, etc.) than evolving/changing their DNA and doing what it takes to win at the highest level.

I think that whole "approach" is just bad leadership though; a stubbornness to evolve and adapt, and selfishness (unwillingness to share their wealth and power with the athletes producing the labor) more than anything else though
 
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But like I said, the predictions based on the 20,000 simulations are in a separate column. The FPI isn't based on the simulations; it's based on other data. From their website:

"Once the season is underway, the main piece of information powering these offensive, defensive and special teams predictions is past performance from that season’s games, in terms of expected points added per game. Expected points added, or EPA, is a measure of success/failure that takes into account yards, turnovers, red zone efficiency and more to determine how many points each unit is contributing to the team's scoring margin. For example, if a team wins by an average of 10 points per game, it could be that plus-seven of that is offense, plus-four is defense and minus-one is special teams. Because expected points added is built on play-by-play data, it’s fair to say that FPI looks at every play of every game in the season."

So it's the same idea as F+, in other words. It also uses play-by-play data.
Thanks for posting this. I haven't done recent research on the FPI system but it looks like they've become more transparent with how the system works and are including more components in their system now.

I still think you never got the point I was trying to make though: I wasn't saying that FPI was based on the simulations, but rather that the simulation-results were based on each team's FPI. And that FPI was built to feed its simulation-engine (and predict how the games and season would play out based on each teams likeliness to win or lose games) where F+ was built matter of fact to describe how team stacks up from 1-130+
 
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Liked for the quoted comments. That's how I see it.

The university cares more about its principles/culture (not paying players, not capitulating to HS prospects, instilling a sense of gratitude in their athletes for the privilege to play football at ND, etc.) than evolving/changing their DNA and doing what it takes to win at the highest level.

I think that whole "approach" is just bad leadership though; a stubbornness to evolve and adapt, and selfishness (unwillingness to share their wealth and power with the athletes producing the labor) more than anything else though
to add..

its curious to me how the university (or the football program specifically) went from constantly being on the cutting edge of the sport, willing to experiment and venture out into the unknown, take crazy risks, progress the sport forward, etc. to what they are now: overly conservative grandpas screaming at the kids on the block to get off their lawn while talking to anybody that will listen about "the good old days"
 
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The revolution will not be televised.

Especially if it happens on a Saturday afternoon…
 
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