ND stays at #8 in latest F+ update (through week 12) plus some FPI tidbits

[chaseball]

F+

• This late in the season, F+ has a pretty good idea of who the best teams in the country are. The system has been nearly perfect correctly predicting the outcomes of games among the top 15 the last two weeks
• it looks like OSU hit a homerun with their chip kelly OC hire. Their offense and defense are both ranked #2 in the country and F+ thinks they are the clear favorite for a natty through week 12.
• Notre Dame, Indiana, Miami, and SMU are the only teams in the top 15 who haven't played a single top 10 opponent. Notre Dame has played ONE opponent in the top 20 in F+ through week 12.

FPI

• ND holds their position at #4 in FPI (Football Power Index at ESPN through week 12) https://www.espn.com/college-football/fpi -- this is another advanced ranking system that evaluates teams at the play by play level and includes an adjustment for opponent quality.
• According to FPIs simulations: ND has a 58.8% chance to win out their final 2 games of the regular season, and their chance to make the playoffs is at 69.1%.

BCF Toys - 2024 F+ Ratings

www.bcftoys.com

(F+ update through week 12):

Rk	Team	OVR F+	OFF	DEF
1​	Ohio State	2.32​	2​	2​
2​	Texas	2.09​	9​	1​
3​	Ole Miss	2.05​	5​	7​
4​	Alabama	2.02​	3​	8​
5​	Oregon	2.02​	4​	9​
6​	Penn State	1.88​	8​	4​
7​	Georgia	1.87​	10​	6​
8​	Notre Dame	1.75​	14​	3​
9​	Indiana	1.55​	7​	18​
10​	Miami	1.53​	1​	47​
11​	Tennessee	1.52​	29​	5​
12​	South Carolina	1.28​	32​	11​
13​	Texas A&M	1.26​	22​	16​
14​	Clemson	1.22​	11​	24​
15​	SMU	1.19​	16​	28​

 

[FightingIrish44]

Look at espn trying to sabotage ND and Indiana by ranking their schedules 82 and 103, respectively. ND was just 73 last week. What happened that made them drop so much? Indiana was 103 last week too, but they didn’t change.

No sane person would rate all of those group of 5 schedules above power 4 schools. Does anyone believe that USF has the #27 most difficult schedule?

At best, their formulas need some serious work, but I think it’s deliberate what they’re doing.

@chaseball What do you think of espn’s strength of schedule rankings?

Is there a way to see f+ rankings in previous weeks?

 

[chaseball]

Look at espn trying to sabotage ND and Indiana by ranking their schedules 82 and 103, respectively. ND was just 73 last week. What happened that made them drop so much? Indiana was 103 last week too, but they didn’t change.

No sane person would rate all of those group of 5 schedules above power 4 schools. Does anyone believe that USF has the #27 most difficult schedule?

At best, their formulas need some serious work, but I think it’s deliberate what they’re doing.

@chaseball What do you think of espn’s strength of schedule rankings?

Is there a way to see f+ rankings in previous weeks?

Schedule rankings are dynamic and based on the FPI ratings and they change based on how well NDs opponents perform from week to week, along with how many competitive games the rest of college football plays from week to week. If you have noticed a sharp decline in NDs schedule rank over the last several weeks, its probably a combination of these two factors.

Also, even though ND is in the P4 their schedule has been really bad (there's a lack of premiere teams at the top, and a bunch of really bad teams in the middle and low end of the schedule ranked way down in the 80s on aggregate in F+).

Im honestly surprised their schedule is ranked 82nd .. it feels like it should be ranked 130th as a fan this season feels like a season long exhibition/scrimmage

And there's no official place to get the F+ rankings by previous weeks but im sure with some google searches/AI searches or looking at some of my post history you can find how the rankings have evolved throughout the season from beginning to present.

edit/update including last weeks F+ rankings:

Here's last weeks F+ (through week 11) from my post history:

Rank	F+ (Week 11)	CFP Committee (Latest)
1	Ohio State	Oregon
2	Oregon	Ohio State
3	Texas	Texas
4	Ole Miss	Penn State
5	Alabama	Indiana
6	Georgia	BYU
7	Penn State	Tennessee
8	Notre Dame	Notre Dame
9	Indiana	Miami
10	Tennessee	Alabama
11	Miami	Ole Miss
12	South Carolina	Georgia
13	Clemson	Boise State
14	LSU	SMU
15	Texas A&M	Texas A&M
16	SMU	Kansas State
17	Iowa	Colorado
18	Boise State	Washington State
19	Louisville	Louisville
20	USC	Clemson
21	Kansas State	South Carolina
22	BYU	LSU
23	Iowa State	Missouri
24	Missouri	Army
25	Army	Tulane

 

[FightingIrish44]

Schedule rankings are dynamic and based on the FPI rankings and they change based on how well NDs opponents perform from week to week, along with how many competitive games the rest of college football plays from week to week. Even though ND is in the P4 their schedule has been really bad (there's a lack of premiere teams at the top, and a bunch of really bad teams in the middle and low end of the schedule ranked way down in the 80s on aggregate in F+).

Im honestly surprised their schedule is ranked 82nd .. it feels like it should be ranked 130th as a fan lol this season has been a bore.

And there's no official place to get the F+ rankings by previous weeks but im sure with some google searches/AI searches or looking at some of my post history you can find how the rankings have evolved throughout the season from beginning to present.

Thanks. There’s only 68 P4 schools including ND. They should not be behind any G5 school. I don’t think any P4 school should be behind any P5 schedule wise unless the G5 is completed loaded out of conference.

 

[FightingIrish44]

Im honestly surprised their schedule is ranked 82nd .. it feels like it should be ranked 130th as a fan this season feels like a season long exhibition/scrimmage and has been a bore.

NCAA College Football Strength of Schedule Rankings & Ratings

NCAA College Football Strength of Schedule Rankings & Ratings from TeamRankings.com, your source for NCAAF computer power rankings.

www.teamrankings.com

ND ranked #30 and only a couple G5’s have a better SOS ranking than ANY P4 school…the way it should be.

Shows how disgusting espn is.

 

[chaseball]

Thanks. There’s only 68 P4 schools including ND. They should not be behind any G5 school. I don’t think any P4 school should be behind any P5 schedule wise unless the G5 is completed loaded out of conference.

I think schedule rankings are highly volatile/flawed from one system to another which is why a "composite strength of schedule" of sorts would probably be the best way to judge the quality of a teams schedule.

Just looking over the FPI strength of schedule ranking Akron Zips have the highest rated schedule in the G5 and most of their schedule has been junk outside of a game vs OSU (#3 FPI) and South Carolina (#13 FPI)

Something does seem off/screwy with FPIs SoS ranking so I wouldn't personally put a bunch of stock into it (which is one of the reasons i dont cite any particular strength of schedule rankings).

 

[chaseball]

it's funny because i was just recently having a discussion on X/Twitter with Brian Fremeau (one of the authors of F+) about how to get a better understanding of schedule strength and he is the one who pointed out that taking data from a number of different systems/resources and using the aggregate ranking would probably be the best approach to understanding schedule strength. in our conversation we discussed the possibility of F+ displaying their version of schedule strength into their rankings page in the future (the problem with this is that it actively works against the authors business model who want to conceal as much of the secret sauce as possible for competitive advantage reasons)

I dont know Brian Fremeau personally but i follow him on X/Twitter and have exchanged some dialogue with him on the X platform when asking for clarity about the F+ system and also just telling him how much I appreciate his work.

 

[burmafrd1943]

I feel dumber every time I am stupid enough to read something chase his balls posts

 

[chaseball]

I feel dumber every time I am stupid enough to read something chase his balls posts

Thank you, I love my fans 😁

 

[Pennick4]

The mind is a terrible thing to waste.