F+ is a complete joke
- Thread starter NDinNJ
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Depends on the matchup. We would be favored against the acc big 12 and the non p4 teams if they got a bye. And a couple big 10 schools too
Nothing is worse than the espn strength of schedule rankings. That is all.
But let's ignore 2-loss Ole Miss, Georgia, and Alabama, all in the top 6 ranked ahead of ND. F+ rating system is a joke.
Didn't you mention that the CFP ranking is looking similar to F+?
Alabama, Georgia, and Ole Miss are ranked 10-12. Certainly glad the cfp doesn't look at or us F+ in their ranking.
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The first two lines says it all about what a $hit show F+ is. Bucknuts ahead of Oregon even though they lost to them.
Simple: the F+ system thinks both of those teams (based on these teams' respective production through week 10) would be favored in a head to head matchup vs ND
F+ has both of these teams F+ rating pretty close
Tenn: 1.60
Indiana: 1.62
F+ has a lot of respect for Indiana's offense (#7 in the country and this ranking is luck and opponent neutralized)
You're right.
According to Bud Elliot's latest CFP projection ND would face Georgia in round 1 and would be a pretty big underdog (and then face oregon afterwards lol):
the amount of losses is irrelevant in F+ .. whats more important is how your team is performing overall from week 1 through week 10 with an adjustment made for competition-quality and for luck.
When you factor in competition quality these other teams are just better despite having more losses than ND.
I don't understand why I have to keep repeating the same points. It should just be intuitively obvious anyway
I'm not the type to rub it in or anything .. but every week someone is making a dumb argument and then F+ goes out there and performs on aggregate pretty damn accurately ... and then people come back here the following week making the same dumb criticisms .. it gets old
We would be ahead of Ole Miss in his scenario and would be the 7th. We would be favored against Indiana and underdogs against Texas. My guess would be a 5 to 7 point dog to Texas
And that's why F+ is a very flawed system. Wins and losses are far more important than how well
an offense or defense performs. what good is an offense that puts up 400-500 yards per game if they stall in the end zone or have trouble scoring.
Again stats take you so far, wins matter.
How you perform in the redzone is largely luck based. If your offense can produce then it can produce period (whether its at the 1 yard line, 25 yard line, 50 yard line, etc.) it doesn't really make a difference
Also, I forgot to mention, wins & losses are accounted for in the F+ formula (the FEI system specifically accounts for this) but it's way less of a factor than it is in the AP or in the CFP polls/rankings (and deservedly so).
Tell me you've never played football without telling me you've never played football
Yep.
e.g. there's no special "redzone scoring" skill. if your offense can move the ball it can move the ball period
Tell me you never played football without telling me you never played football
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Too many folk involved who love nothing more than whatever is trendy at the moment. The flavor of the year...or decade if you will.
Now more than ever and it will only increase yearly is parity.
Parity is at an all time high.
Where the F*** is Boise State?
Identical record and resume to Ohio State. Both lost to Oregon @ Eugene by a FG!
Who is #1 and who isn't even in the top 15?
Boise State is the #3 scoring offense in the country. They are scoring significantly more than OSU...and the masses just love offense.
But WAIT....just you wait a sec...Boise State isn't the pretty team. They aren't in an elitist conference.
And you can bet your ass on two things...
Not one team from the alleged top 15 of this nonsense list would want any part of Boise State and you can bet that half of these 15 teams would NOT be excited to play Army right now.
Where are they? ranked 100?
F= lg*$S&P 123 rankings is the dumbest thing I've ever seen
That is correct, F+ looks on what a team averaged on a play. A team can be 0-11 and still have a good F+.
I think you know this but for those who dont:
F+ is two systems:
SP+ (Billy Connelly) & FEI (Brian Fremeau)
The FEI system does take into consideration the final score and whether a team won or lost (which means F+ does as well).
SP+ is all about the play by play data and from what I recall doesn't take the win-loss outcome into consideration in the formula.
This is older information back when the system was a lot more transparent and published on "Football Outsiders" so things may have changed over time.
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Outside of Pedo St at 7, the list looks dead on regarding best teams in the nation and who is most likely to win on any given Saturday. I assume 4-6 is your biggest issue? If ND played Ole Miss, Alabama, Georgia 10 times the best they would do is 5-5 (which is coming a loooong way from where we were).
Any system that discounts or doesn't consider wins and losses, is garbage period. Wins and losses are all that matter at the end of the day, no matter what sport you look at. Stats only get you so far, but they don't tell you the entire story, and they are listing critical components in ranking or placing teams.
Alrighty then...
Explain Boise State...
Ranked #18 on this stupid EFF+
Identical resume as OSU...
#3 scoring offense in the land....
OSU ranked #1 and above the team they lost to...ššš
Yet BSU with an identical loss and only loss is at #18...
Alarm bells are ringing
Combined the two systems have about 10 different measures that they average together. If a team is good in 10 different categories (about yards-S&P and points-FEI) they are obviously a good team. That is why I consider 'F+' to be nothing more than a backward-looking stat.
For rankings by pure wins use the Colley Matrix. Afaik Colley makes a win worth 1 and a loss worth zero.
Look at the opponent quality and the performance vs the quality of opponents on the schedule.
Boise State has racked up their stats & wins vs the G5 where OSU has racked up their stats & wins vs the BIG10
F+ looks at the entire schedule from the lowest team to the best team (and all of the performance vs that schedule)
A lot of times people will just hyper focus on the greatest opponent on the schedule or the worst opponent on the schedule, but there is a TON of information to be had in all of the mid quality teams in between.
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No, algorithms love information because there's something that can be used from ALL information with which you can increase the quality of the statistical evaluation of a team with.
Whether its a close win/loss/blowout/tie game/etc. doesn't matter. ALL information is good.
What tends to happen in the traditional polling/ranking systems is that a lot of information isn't considered which is why those ranking systems aren't as accurate.
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They both have one loss, to the same team, at the same location, by the same outcome.
The only thing you can do is look at head to head...
if that doesn't happen then what common opponents do they share...
what was the outcome of those?
One common opponent and the outcome was identical.
I'm not suggesting BSU be ranked #1 but if this garbage system has OSU as #1...ranked ahead of the very team they lost to...
then BSU most certainly isn't ranked #18!
Some day the trendies will realize the days of the have's and have not's are long gone.
This P5, G5 nonsense is just that...nonsense.
Moreover no matter the conference you have a couple teams at the top who are strong and a whole bunch meddling in the middle.
Perception does NOT make reality and that's all this is.
Until you have a slew of cross conference games, the SEC willing to put the big boy pants on and play north the Mason Dixon line post Halloween...
everything and I do mean everything is simply a matter of assumed perception from days of yore.
Teams get the benefit of the doubt far too often and far too long based on what they did yesterday.
At one time we enjoyed this nonsense too.
Maybe someday we will get back to that but we have to start winning major post season affairs.
