ND back in the top 10 (F+ update through week 3)

[chaseball]

1. OSU, 2.27
2. Georgia, 2.14
3. Michigan, 1.96
4. OU, 1.82
5. Washington, 1.81

8. Notre Dame, 1.71

BCF Toys - 2023 F+ Ratings

www.bcftoys.com

NDs offense is now ranked in the top 10 in the country in F+ to match their #12 defense. The team is playing good football on both sides of the ball. These rankings are neutralized for opponent quality: so even though the competition has been complete dog-turd, and ND is being penalized heavily for the weak competition, ND is still producing enough offensively to be ranked in the top 10 and enough defensively to be ranked #12.

Coming into the year, I thought the Sam Hartman hype was out of control, but after 4 weeks, it's looking like i was way off/completely wrong. The hype was insane, and in retrospect he's outperforming the hype. He's been as good as any QB in the country. Estime has also been a total beast and another guy who I thought was being overhyped only to be proven wrong up to this point. The performance data is quickly changing my opinion on the entire offensive side of the ball.

More important than the individual examples of stars on the team, the player development in general seems to be going as good as ND fans could have hoped for. We got players from all parts of the 2 deep emerging into productive players and outperforming expectations. A lot of positive indicators going on with the program from the production on the field after 4 games, even when you adjust for lack of opponent quality. It feels good to have something positive to say about the ND football program after a brutal off-season.

Still lots of season left and a lot left to prove but a lot of positivity and things for ND fans to be excited about. The peripherals are all pointing in the right direction and a big win over #1 OSU could really catapult this team and the brand going forward especially with a young head coach who is starting to show signs of big time potential.

 

[sjb75]

F+ references are a waste of time.

 

[NDSMC78]

Totally irrelevant measure of anything.

 

[NotreDomer1]

Right around where the humans have us. There still seems to be some oddball rankings there, but I guess that’s any poll.

Are equal weights given to off, def and St?

 

[chaseball]

F+ references are a waste of time.

I've been following this ranking system since the early 2010s. It's going to take more than a ignorant mob on this site with "hur dur texas ranked behind alabama after beating them" for me to stop referencing the most comprehensive public-available ranking system on the planet.

Also i don't post this for the haters, there are plenty of people here who enjoy the objective science based statistical analysis that I contribute.

Unfortunately people are too stupid to appreciate the fact that one of your own (me) knows this data uniquely well and instead of being receptive and appreciative to the contributions that I make, and maybe trying to see things through a different light, you'd rather try to run me off because you don't like what the data says.

Anyway, i think offense is 2-3 times more important than defense, and special teams has almost a negligible impact. Back when they were publishing this system at footballoutsiders there was more dialogue behind how the system works so I'm unable to reference anything official and this was a couple seasons ago and the system is being revised/tweaked constantly so take this for what it is worth.

 

[sjb75]

I've been following this ranking system since the early 2010s. It's going to take more than a ignorant mob on this site with "hur dur texas ranked behind alabama after beating them" for me to stop referencing the most comprehensive public-available ranking system on the planet.

Also i don't post this for the haters, there are plenty of people here who enjoy the objective science based statistical analysis that I contribute.

Unfortunately people are too stupid to appreciate the fact that one of your own (me) knows this data uniquely well and instead of being receptive and appreciative to the contributions that I make, and maybe trying to see things through a different light, you'd rather try to run me off because you don't like what the data says.

Anyway, i think offense is 2-3 times more important than defense, and special teams has almost a negligible impact. Back when they were publishing this system at footballoutsiders there was more dialogue behind how the system works so I'm unable to reference anything official and this was a couple seasons ago and the system is being revised/tweaked constantly so take this for what it is worth.

It's a waste of time.

 

[chaseball]

Right around where the humans have us. There still seems to be some oddball rankings there, but I guess that’s any poll.

Are equal weights given to off, def and St?

This is not a poll, try not to think of the traditional polls as the default way all ranking systems should be compared to.

Try to think of the traditional polls (like the AP Poll) as a separate type of ranking altogether (it's more of a resume ranking where teams earn ranking spots based on their in-season accomplishments: if you Win you go up, if you lose, you go down, etc.).

F+ is something else entirely. It's a tool that takes the most predictive data in college football and ranks teams based on that data. So a good play or a good drive will move you up in the ranking. A bad play or a bad drive will move you down. The outcome of the game (the final score) isn't as important.

Also, OSUs 2.27 F+ rating can directly be translated to a point differential to NDs 1.71 F+ rating. I don't remember how the translation is done so im not even going to try .. but the rating difference is sizeable. It would definitely translate to more than 3 points.

Vegas thinks this game is going to be a lot closer than F+ does. But vegas also uses human intervention and their internal stat-based ranking system is only 1 of many factors they consider when they set their lines.

 

[chaseball]

It's a waste of time.

Keep doubling down on your ignorance; it's a really good look

 

[sjb75]

Totally irrelevant measure of anything.

100.

 

[NotreDomer1]

This is not a poll, try not to think of the traditional polls as the default way all ranking systems should be compared to.

Try to think of the traditional polls (like the AP Poll) as a separate type of ranking altogether (it's more of a resume ranking where teams earn ranking spots based on their in-season accomplishments: if you Win you go up, if you lose, you go down, etc.).

F+ is something else entirely. It's a tool that takes the most predictive data in college football and ranks teams based on that data. So a good play, or a good drive accounting for the quality of your opponent will move you up in the ranking. A bad play or a bad drive will move you down. The outcome of the game (the final score) isn't as important.

Also, the F+ rating column can directly be translated to a point differential as well. So OSUs 2.27 F+ rating can directly be translated to a point differential to NDs 1.71 F+ rating. I don't remember how the translation is done so im not even going to try .. but the rating difference is sizeable. It would definitely translate to more than vegas' 3 point difference.

Vegas thinks this game is going to be a lot closer than F+ does. But vegas also uses human intervention and their internal data-based system (which is something similar to F+) is only one component of probably several that they use to set their lines.

Yeah, I misspoke when I was comparing it to human polls. I guess I would really need to understand more about the FEI and SP+ ranking systems as it seems F+ is just really combining both platforms into one. Kind of like how you can be a 5* on Rivals without being a composite 5*

I see us ranked way down on SF+(52), but feel that might be a little unfair due to the fact that we have kept cramming 50yrd+ FGs down our PK’s throat. He’s not going to have the same FG% as a guy kicking 30 yarders all the time. I’m not sure if ST has and equal weighting to a teams ranked position as OFF does. If has equal weighting, that’s having a serious negative effect on our overall rating. I can’t quite figure out how the overall is computed. (OF+DF+SF)/2-X seems to be the best formula I can come up with and I don’t even know what the X variable would stand for. It comes out a little higher than the actual and progressively, the X variable grows, but it’s close.

 

[Pennick4]

New rankings came out for your latest posts.
You were given a C....for clueless.

 

[HRC08]

The Sam Hartman hype wasn’t “out of control.” Many of us here actually believed that Tyler Buchner could win the job or play well enough to split snaps with Hartman. The Colorado hype is out of control. See the difference?

 

[NDinNJ]

Keep doubling down on your ignorance; it's a really good look

Then why is your new shiny object, Colorado ranked 77th in F+?
Let's look at some of the teams ranked ahead of Colorado.
UTSA, James Madison, Toledo, Troy, Liberty, Louisiana, South Alabama, Marshall, Rutgers, Purdue, and Nebraska
F+ IS A COMPLETELY FLAWED SYSTEM!!

 

[francade]

Thank god we’re back in the top 10 in F+, I couldn’t sleep last night wondering if we’d break in. 😳

 

[Telx1]

1. OSU, 2.27
2. Georgia, 2.14
3. Michigan, 1.96
4. OU, 1.82
5. Washington, 1.81

8. Notre Dame, 1.71

BCF Toys - 2023 F+ Ratings

www.bcftoys.com

NDs offense is now ranked in the top 10 in the country in F+ to match their #12 defense. The team is playing good football on both sides of the ball. These rankings are neutralized for opponent quality: so even though the competition has been complete dog-turd, and ND is being penalized heavily for the weak competition, ND is still producing enough offensively to be ranked in the top 10 and enough defensively to be ranked #12.

Coming into the year, I thought the Sam Hartman hype was out of control, but after 4 weeks, it's looking like i was way off/completely wrong. The hype was insane, and in retrospect he's outperforming the hype. He's been as good as any QB in the country. Estime has also been a total beast and another guy who I thought was being overhyped only to be proven wrong up to this point. The performance data is quickly changing my opinion on the entire offensive side of the ball.

More important than the individual examples of stars on the team, the player development in general seems to be going as good as ND fans could have hoped for. We got players from all parts of the 2 deep emerging into productive players and outperforming expectations. A lot of positive indicators going on with the program from the production on the field after 4 games, even when you adjust for lack of opponent quality. It feels good to have something positive to say about the ND football program after a brutal off-season.

Still lots of season left and a lot left to prove but a lot of positivity and things for ND fans to be excited about. The peripherals are all pointing in the right direction and a big win over #1 OSU could really catapult this team and the brand going forward especially with a young head coach who is starting to show signs of big time potential.

I don’t care at all about F+ rankings. I only care about the playoff committee rankings towards the end of the season. But I do care about objective opinions being expressed about the state of ND football; and for the first time in a very long time, I appreciated your perspective. Not looking for cheer leaders, or folks that necessarily agree with me, just objective fair narratives. Agree there are lots of good things happening in the program, and this game Saturday is an excellent yardstick for measuring where we are as a program, and where we need to be.

 

[raulduke_007]

I've been following this ranking system since the early 2010s. It's going to take more than a ignorant mob on this site with "hur dur texas ranked behind alabama after beating them" for me to stop referencing the most comprehensive public-available ranking system on the planet.

Also i don't post this for the haters, there are plenty of people here who enjoy the objective science based statistical analysis that I contribute.

Unfortunately people are too stupid to appreciate the fact that one of your own (me) knows this data uniquely well and instead of being receptive and appreciative to the contributions that I make, and maybe trying to see things through a different light, you'd rather try to run me off because you don't like what the data says.

Anyway, i think offense is 2-3 times more important than defense, and special teams has almost a negligible impact. Back when they were publishing this system at footballoutsiders there was more dialogue behind how the system works so I'm unable to reference anything official and this was a couple seasons ago and the system is being revised/tweaked constantly so take this for what it is worth.

Yeesh bud, if you think that & thats what you subscribe too then you dont understand the game of football. O is 2 to 3 times more important than the D lol & special teams are irrelevant lol. Bobby Bowden would have multiple titles if not for a bad fg kicker. Brady wouldnt have 7 Superbowls without a great D & lights out special teams. Miami Hurricanes would of beat PSU & OSU for titles. As great as Mahomes Chief's offenses were his D doesnt keep him innthe game he loses the Superbowl vs the 49ers. Then the next yr Tampa ate him alive. Peyton never made a Superbowl until the Colts assemble a D. The Broncos D carried him to another. The legion of boom destroyed his great Broncos offense. The Bills & Pats should of destroy the Giants in Superbowls. Elway goes out back 2 back champ because his D & run game. The list goes on & on. There is more to football than stats sport & you dont even need to be an expert to realize that.

 

[NDinNJ]

This is not a poll, try not to think of the traditional polls as the default way all ranking systems should be compared to.

Try to think of the traditional polls (like the AP Poll) as a separate type of ranking altogether (it's more of a resume ranking where teams earn ranking spots based on their in-season accomplishments: if you Win you go up, if you lose, you go down, etc.).

F+ is something else entirely. It's a tool that takes the most predictive data in college football and ranks teams based on that data. So a good play or a good drive will move you up in the ranking. A bad play or a bad drive will move you down. The outcome of the game (the final score) isn't as important.

Also, OSUs 2.27 F+ rating can directly be translated to a point differential to NDs 1.71 F+ rating. I don't remember how the translation is done so im not even going to try .. but the rating difference is sizeable. It would definitely translate to more than 3 points.

Vegas thinks this game is going to be a lot closer than F+ does. But vegas also uses human intervention and their internal stat-based ranking system is only 1 of many factors they consider when they set their lines.

Dude, seriously put the crack pipe down. Just based on your explanation of F+ tells me it's a shit system.

"It's a tool that takes the most predictive data in college football and ranks teams based on that data. So a good play or a good drive will move you up in the ranking. A bad play or a bad drive will move you down. The outcome of the game (the final score) isn't as important."

Basically what you are saying is if Team A plays a crap Team B. Team A goes up 42-0 at halftime. Team A sends in 2's and 3's in the second half. Team A's 2 's and 3's turn the ball over on every possession say 6 in the second half, Team B scores 3 times off those turnovers, and the final score is 42-21 and still cover the vegas spread. Team A drops in the F+ because they had multiple failed drives and turnovers with their 2's and 3's even though the game was never in jeopardy for Team A.
DUMB!!

 

[BGI User 756]

So let’s review…

We played a team that assball mocked for the first 4 weeks…then after we beat them, we rise in the F+ rankings? Anyone else see the irony?

 

[chaseball]

Dude, seriously put the crack pipe down. Just based on your explanation of F+ tells me it's a shit system.

"It's a tool that takes the most predictive data in college football and ranks teams based on that data. So a good play or a good drive will move you up in the ranking. A bad play or a bad drive will move you down. The outcome of the game (the final score) isn't as important."

Basically what you are saying is if Team A plays a crap Team B. Team A goes up 42-0 at halftime. Team A sends in 2's and 3's in the second half. Team A's 2 's and 3's turn the ball over on every possession say 6 in the second half, Team B scores 3 times off those turnovers, and the final score is 42-21 and still cover the vegas spread. Team A drops in the F+ because they had multiple failed drives and turnovers with their 2's and 3's even though the game was never in jeopardy for Team A.
DUMB!!

Im positive you are not replying in good faith but its a point that needs to be repeated: The system omits garbage time. When the backups come in after a big lead the garbage time stats don't count in the formula.

 

[chaseball]

So let’s review…

We played a team that assball mocked for the first 4 weeks…then after we beat them, we rise in the F+ rankings? Anyone else see the irony?

Notre Dame has been extremely productive in their drives so even when the system is neutralizing NDs performance for opponent quality, Notre Dame has been so productive that they are still being awarded/respected bigly by the system.

 

[chaseball]

Then why is your new shiny object, Colorado ranked 77th in F+?
Let's look at some of the teams ranked ahead of Colorado.
UTSA, James Madison, Toledo, Troy, Liberty, Louisiana, South Alabama, Marshall, Rutgers, Purdue, and Nebraska
F+ IS A COMPLETELY FLAWED SYSTEM!!

This early in the season F+ weighs a program's recent track record more heavily (how well the team performed the season prior, how many players from last year that were productive returned to the team, the incoming recruiting class from last season) to establish team-quality and since colorado turned over their entire team none of that data is really relevant to this new coach prime lead team at colorado now.

As we get deeper into the new season, the data from the new season will weigh more heavily, and will more accurately reflect this new coach prime lead colorado team.

 

[NDinNJ]

Im positive you are not replying in good faith but its a point that needs to be repeated: The system omits garbage time. When the backups come in after a big lead the garbage time stats don't count in the formula.

Neither are you. You continue to ignore the red herring which is Colorado.
Colorado ranked 77th in F+
Let's look at some of the teams ranked ahead of Colorado.
UTSA, James Madison, Toledo, Troy, Liberty, Louisiana, South Alabama, Marshall, Rutgers, Purdue, and Nebraska
Are you to say that UTSA, James Madison, Toledo, Troy, Liberty, Louisiana, and South Alabama are better than Colorado?

 

[NDinNJ]

Given how much turnover/change has happened in Colorado this past off season, F+ is not the right system to evaluate them by. At least not until we get deeper into the new season and the data from the new season is weighted more heavily in the formula.

This early in the season F+ uses a program's recent track record (how well the team performed the season prior, how many players from last year that were productive returned to the team, the incoming recruiting class from last season) to establish team-quality and since colorado turned over their entire team none of that data is really relevant to this new coach prime lead team at colorado now.

And that's where F+ is flawed. especially with the transfer portal and NIL, F+ is done. No way will Colorado be able to move up if they get waxed the next two weeks by Oregon and USC, but if Troy plays a bunch of cupcakes they'll move up and remain ahead of Colorado? The system is a joke, a complete farce..

 

[Golson5]

Im positive you are not replying in good faith but its a point that needs to be repeated: The system omits garbage time. When the backups come in after a big lead the garbage time stats don't count in the formula.

When your system is so bad, you have to change the system

Until they do make a change to it, it will continue to be the worst out there at ranking teams.

Let me know when they change it and I will give it another look

 

[chaseball]

And that's where F+ is flawed. especially with the transfer portal and NIL, F+ is done. No way will Colorado be able to move up if they get waved the next two weeks by Oregon and USC, but if Troy plays a bunch of cupcakes they'll move up and to remain ahead of Colorado? The system is a joke, a complete farce..

Read through my past F+ posts where this has been responded to ad naseum along with most of your other criticisms.

The system is imperfect, and its important to know where the system is weak (like in the case of colorado where almost 100% of their roster was turned over) so that you can account for that.

I wouldn't use F+ to evaluate any program that has 70 new scholarship players on it until MUCH later into the new season

 

[chaseball]

BTW it's clear as day i'm being trolled in these threads by the same "hur dur F+ bad hahahaha" faction and that is fine for two reasons: 1. it bumps my post up so my thread reaches more people and 2. it allows me to clarify how the system works for the masses in the middle trying to make sense of it all

so thank you

it took the crowd on this site like 10 years later than the rest of the country to finally concede that star-rankings mattered and were a barometer of how well your team would do in the regular season ..

maybe after 5-10 more years of hammering the virtues of F+ home, we'll catch up to the rest of the college football world on advanced ranking algorithms too

*here's to hoping*

 

[sjb75]

BTW it's clear as day i'm being trolled in these threads by the same "hur dur F+ bad hahahaha" faction and that is fine for two reasons: 1. it bumps my post up so my thread reaches more people and 2. it allows me to clarify how the system works for the masses in the middle trying to make sense of it all

so thank you

You complaining about trolling is hilarious.

 

[bizzybecknd]

What’s the point of the ranking system? To predict the best teams? If that’s the case, isn’t why we play the games and why Bama is no longer #1 on these rankings? Struggling to see the value when the only rankings that matte are the CFP committees thoughts.

 

[sjb75]

BTW it's clear as day i'm being trolled in these threads by the same "hur dur F+ bad hahahaha" faction and that is fine for two reasons: 1. it bumps my post up so my thread reaches more people and 2. it allows me to clarify how the system works for the masses in the middle trying to make sense of it all

so thank you

it took the crowd on this site like 10 years later than the rest of the country to finally concede that star-rankings mattered and were a barometer of how well your team would do in the regular season ..

maybe after 5-10 more years of hammering the virtues of F+ home, we'll catch up to the rest of the college football world on advanced ranking algorithms too

*here's to hoping*

Why don't you lecture us again on "...white tribalist conservative racist christians..."

 

[sjb75]

BTW it's clear as day i'm being trolled in these threads by the same "hur dur F+ bad hahahaha" faction and that is fine for two reasons: 1. it bumps my post up so my thread reaches more people and 2. it allows me to clarify how the system works for the masses in the middle trying to make sense of it all

so thank you

it took the crowd on this site like 10 years later than the rest of the country to finally concede that star-rankings mattered and were a barometer of how well your team would do in the regular season ..

maybe after 5-10 more years of hammering the virtues of F+ home, we'll catch up to the rest of the college football world on advanced ranking algorithms too

*here's to hoping*

"...people don't like Deion because he's black..."---chaseball

 

[sjb75]

Why do fans want to see the vegas odds before a fight or before a game? Because we are impatient and we are looking for valid data points that confirm how our favorite team or player or fighter stacks up.

"....keep the black minority down and the white man rich fat and happy."---chaseball

 

[bizzybecknd]

BTW it's clear as day i'm being trolled in these threads by the same "hur dur F+ bad hahahaha" faction and that is fine for two reasons: 1. it bumps my post up so my thread reaches more people and 2. it allows me to clarify how the system works for the masses in the middle trying to make sense of it all

so thank you

Why do fans want to see the vegas odds before a fight or before a game? Because we are impatient and we are looking for valid data points that confirm how our favorite team or player or fighter stacks up.

Money. Why hasn’t this been broadly adopted? Who uses it? Vegas Odds and the CFP rankings gives us plenty to chew on rather than an obsolete ranking system that has the interest of few. Their pre season rankings have been useless and flawed. Let’s see how their pre season rankings reflect at years end.

 

[4-4-3]

What’s the point of the ranking system? To predict the best teams? If that’s the case, isn’t why we play the games and why Bama is no longer #1 on these rankings? Struggling to see the value when the only rankings that matte are the CFP committees thoughts.

I'm waiting for the day when there won't be ANY rankings but rather an ALL-ENCOMPASSING elimination system as in domestic pro sports and international football.

I think it's one thing to argue who will win a particular contest or even conference and another as to which of two teams that DON'T ACTUALLY MEET is better.

Too much like angels on a pinhead.

Besides, I prefer when they LINE UP AND PLAY.

 

[raulduke_007]

Im positive you are not replying in good faith but its a point that needs to be repeated: The system omits garbage time. When the backups come in after a big lead the garbage time stats don't count in the formula.

These sites will get you beat at the book more times than not. These sites dont factor in things like Texas coming off a big win the week before or FSU looking ahead to Clemson. These sites dont adjust for DC & OC schemes. For example the TCU game vs Colorado. TCU kept running man coverage & Colorado shredded them where Nebraska & CSU played zone & really gave Colorado's O fits. Sites that rely soley on raw numbers especially in college are fool's gold.

 

[chaseball]

These sites will get you beat at the book more times than not. These sites dont factor in things like Texas coming off a big win the week before or FSU looking ahead to Clemson. These sites dont adjust for DC & OC schemes. For example the TCU game vs Colorado. TCU kept running man coverage & Colorado shredded them where Nebraska & CSU played zone & really gave Colorado's O fits. Sites that rely soley on raw numbers especially in college are fool's gold.

If a team is getting countered with a scheme, and they can't adjust to that scheme/overcome it, then more teams will counter that team with that scheme, and eventually it will be reflected in the data because the team can't move the football as efficiently as other teams who are ranked ahead

As for the other stuff "looking ahead" "coming out flat" "not getting up for x, y, z, team" "trap game" "everybody plays the irish tough" and the like ... that is just hack writer stuff/media fodder. No coach in the country worth his salt puts any actual weight on that type of stuff nor is it -- nor should it be -- accounted for in any type of valid ranking system.

 

[chaseball]

What’s the point of the ranking system? To predict the best teams? If that’s the case, isn’t why we play the games and why Bama is no longer #1 on these rankings? Struggling to see the value when the only rankings that matte are the CFP committees thoughts.

So why do we need ranking systems? Because not all teams get a chance to play every other team so the ranking system gives us an idea of how teams would stack up regardless.

F+ rates teams as if they were all playing the same quality of opponents and all on the receiving end of the same amount of luck (the system neutralizes for luck and for opponent quality) so that we can separate the wheat from the chaff

This is important because in a 12 game season with wildly different quality of opponents and wildly different luck outcomes you'll see some bad teams get ranked much higher than they deserve or good teams get ranked much lower than they deserve in traditional college football polls (like the AP & Coaches Poll)

As ND fans, we want Notre Dame to be respected/ranked highly in F+ because it tells us how well the team is producing on the football field regardless of how much luck or easy-schedule they've been benefitting from which means they are likely to continue to produce at a high level-- and ultimately win football games going forward -- even when playing against the best teams and being on the receiving end of bad luck

 

[raulduke_007]

If a team is getting countered with a scheme, and they can't adjust to that scheme/overcome it, then more teams will counter that team with that scheme, and eventually it will be reflected in the data because the team can't move the football as efficiently as other teams who are ranked ahead

As for the other stuff "looking ahead" "coming out flat" "not getting up for x, y, z, team" "trap game" "everybody plays the irish tough" and the like ... that is just hack writer stuff/media fodder. No coach in the country worth his salt puts any actual weight on that type of stuff nor is it -- nor should it be -- accounted for in any type of valid ranking system.

So either your site overvalued Bama, FSU & Texas or undervalued Boston College, Wyoming, SFla. Because your power ranking site said that these were overmatched teams & they should all have been blowouts if your site's model was accurate. Or maybe that human element that you describe as media fodder & nonsense played a part. You keep outing yourself as casual & basic. There is no expertise to your analysis. You dont understand football or sports at an elite level.

 

[chaseball]

So either your site overvalued Bama, FSU & Texas or undervalued Boston College, Wyoming, SFla. Because your power ranking site said that these were overmatched teams & they should all have been blowouts if your site's model was accurate. Or maybe that human element that you describe as media fodder & nonsense played a part. You keep outing yourself as casual & basic. There is no expertise to your analysis. You dont understand football or sports at an elite level.

I wouldn't evaluate the system based on individual examples so much and would instead evaluate the system more based on its aggregate performance (e.g. its overall performance based on the outcomes of all games every week). I think the best advanced ranking systems win 55%-60% of games vs the spread and F+ is certainly one of the systems that perform at that level based on an old study that retroactively evaluated the advanced ranking models after the season was over. If i find that study i'll provide a link.

 

[Fightingirish595]

This is not a poll, try not to think of the traditional polls as the default way all ranking systems should be compared to.

Try to think of the traditional polls (like the AP Poll) as a separate type of ranking altogether (it's more of a resume ranking where teams earn ranking spots based on their in-season accomplishments: if you Win you go up, if you lose, you go down, etc.).

F+ is something else entirely. It's a tool that takes the most predictive data in college football and ranks teams based on that data. So a good play or a good drive will move you up in the ranking. A bad play or a bad drive will move you down. The outcome of the game (the final score) isn't as important.

Also, OSUs 2.27 F+ rating can directly be translated to a point differential to NDs 1.71 F+ rating. I don't remember how the translation is done so im not even going to try .. but the rating difference is sizeable. It would definitely translate to more than 3 points.

Vegas thinks this game is going to be a lot closer than F+ does. But vegas also uses human intervention and their internal stat-based ranking system is only 1 of many factors they consider when they set their lines.

connelys SP+ prediction is 28-27 Ohio state. clearly FEI isn’t respecting ND as much as SP+

What people don’t understand is that these rankings to have predictive power.

The final line will be shaped by the bettors, who have similar models to these, just not public. So far there hasn’t been much movement

 

[ivan brunetti]

connelys SP+ prediction is 28-27 Ohio state. clearly FEI isn’t respecting ND as much as SP+

What people don’t understand is that these rankings to have predictive power.

The final line will be shaped by the bettors, who have similar models to these, just not public. So far there hasn’t been much movement

The game might have dropped to a pick'em if Ohio State's offense hadn't finally awoken on Saturday.