ND back in the top 10 (F+ update through week 3)

[BGI User 1596]

The game might have dropped to a pick'em if Ohio State's offense hadn't finally awoken on Saturday.

Not if you believe F+.

 

[ivan brunetti]

Not if you believe F+.

I am not that familiar with F+. Perhaps they don't give more weight for QB than other positions. OSU has accumulated 5 years of great recruiting talent *on paper*.

 

[4-4-3]

I wouldn't evaluate the system based on individual examples so much and would instead evaluate the system more based on its aggregate performance (e.g. its overall performance based on the outcomes of all games every week). I think the best advanced ranking systems win 55%-60% of games vs the spread and F+ is certainly one of the systems that perform at that level based on an old study that retroactively evaluated the advanced ranking models after the season was over. If i find that study i'll provide a link.

All of this reminds me of my Medieval history and philosophy courses where we studied the ABSURD NOTION that scholars could prove VIA REASON the existence of the CHRISTIAN GOD using a word-based philosophical formula devised by a PAGAN GREEK.

What in the end was it REALLY?

DISCOURSE.

Also known as TALK.

Often ruled by BIAS and SPECULATION.

My question isn’t WHO IS BETTER THAN WHO based on a series of past events that can never be adjusted COMPREHENSIVELY ENOUGH for the DYNAMIC CHANGES that occur from week to week – not to mention MOMENT TO MOMENT, IN-GAME -- and therefore, according to your post, can only successfully predict 6 out of 10 outcomes, if that. (Not exactly PROBABILISTIC WIZARDRY, right?)

My question is WHICH is more GERMANE? The game or the rankings?

I think that for some it’s the RANKINGS as they generate ANTICIPATORY CONVERSATION of a type almost unique to college football where we have this PLETHORA of teams that either a) don’t play each other or b) don’t feed into a TRULY CHAMPION-PRODUCING elimination system. And in some cases, both.

College football has always featured more than its share of “scholastic” subjectivity. While it’s always had regional conferences that produced locally dominant teams, in order to decide on a NATIONAL champion it had to do so MYTHICALLY.

First, it was various wire services and sporting associations that did this, often with local prejudices and affiliations in mind. Later, it was done by purely voting – again with an INORDINATE AMOUNT OF BIAS at times. While, lately, computerized data models have been introduced which can only measure what they HAVEN’T LEFT OUT.

All of these “techniques,” arising from an inability to determine the best TEAM(S) in college football, have along the way, morphed into DEVICES meant to PREDICT what can only be determined – NOT BY ACCLIMATION OR VOTING OR COMPUTATION OF ANY KIND – but simply ON THE FIELD.

So, what then do rankings ACTUALLY DO other than assert in an elaborate, attention-grabbing way that MY OLD MAN CAN WHIP YOUR OLD MAN’S ASS?

If that’s the payoff, well, to me, that’s PRETTY THIN BEER. But then, people do drink a lot of BUD LIGHT. (Or at least THEY USED TO!)

To me, the whole PREDICTIVE RACKET – UNLESS YOU’RE SOMEONE – VIA CON DIOS -- WHO THINKS HE CAN BEAT THE SYSTEM GAMBLING – is just MEANINGLESS TALK. CONVERSATION.

WHICH IS FINE.

But to get TOTALLY INVESTED IN THIS OR THAT SYSTEM and see it as some kind of DEFINTIVE PROOF of one team or another’s ACTUAL STRENGTH or, worse, some INSIDE-FOOTBALL PARTISAN WEAPON, doesn’t make much sense to me when the only thing that counts is the GAME ITSELF.

As I’ve written elsewhere, I can’t wait until all of this “PREDICTIVE SCIENCE” is SWEPT AWAY by one or more COMPREHENSIVE ELIMINATION SYSTEMS which will reward ACTUAL WINNERS for ACTUAL ACCOMPLISHMENTS. If they did it in international football and US pro sports, they can do it in CFB.

DER TAG!

(To those who feel otherwise, NO DISRESPECT INTENDED. My words reflect nothing more than my opinion.)

 

[chaseball]

All of this reminds me of my Medieval history and philosophy courses where we studied the ABSURD NOTION that scholars could prove VIA REASON the existence of the CHRISTIAN GOD using a word-based philosophical formula devised by a PAGAN GREEK.

What in the end was it REALLY?

DISCOURSE.

Also known as TALK.

Often ruled by BIAS and SPECULATION.

My question isn’t WHO IS BETTER THAN WHO based on a series of past events that can never be adjusted COMPREHENSIVELY ENOUGH for the DYNAMIC CHANGES that occur from week to week – not to mention MOMENT TO MOMENT, IN-GAME -- and therefore, according to your post, can only successfully predict 6 out of 10 outcomes, if that. (Not exactly PROBABILISTIC WIZARDRY, right?)

My question is WHICH is more GERMANE? The game or the rankings?

I think that for some it’s the RANKINGS as they generate ANTICIPATORY CONVERSATION of a type almost unique to college football where we have this PLETHORA of teams that either a) don’t play each other or b) don’t feed into a TRULY CHAMPION-PRODUCING elimination system. And in some cases, both.

College football has always featured more than its share of “scholastic” subjectivity. While it’s always had regional conferences that produced locally dominant teams, in order to decide on a NATIONAL champion it had to do so MYTHICALLY.

First, it was various wire services and sporting associations that did this, often with local prejudices and affiliations in mind. Later, it was done by purely voting – again with an INORDINATE AMOUNT OF BIAS at times. While, lately, computerized data models have been introduced which can only measure what they HAVEN’T LEFT OUT.

All of these “techniques,” arising from an inability to determine the best TEAM(S) in college football, have along the way, morphed into DEVICES meant to PREDICT what can only be determined – NOT BY ACCLIMATION OR VOTING OR COMPUTATION OF ANY KIND – but simply ON THE FIELD.

So, what then do rankings ACTUALLY DO other than assert in an elaborate, attention-grabbing way that MY OLD MAN CAN WHIP YOUR OLD MAN’S ASS?

If that’s the payoff, well, to me, that’s PRETTY THIN BEER. But then, people do drink a lot of BUD LIGHT. (Or at least THEY USED TO!)

To me, the whole PREDICTIVE RACKET – UNLESS YOU’RE SOMEONE – VIA CON DIOS -- WHO THINKS HE CAN BEAT THE SYSTEM GAMBLING – is just MEANINGLESS TALK. CONVERSATION.

WHICH IS FINE.

But to get TOTALLY INVESTED IN THIS OR THAT SYSTEM and see it as some kind of DEFINTIVE PROOF of one team or another’s ACTUAL STRENGTH or, worse, some INSIDE-FOOTBALL PARTISAN WEAPON, doesn’t make much sense to me when the only thing that counts is the GAME ITSELF.

As I’ve written elsewhere, I can’t wait until all of this “PREDICTIVE SCIENCE” is SWEPT AWAY by one or more COMPREHENSIVE ELIMINATION SYSTEMS which will reward ACTUAL WINNERS for ACTUAL ACCOMPLISHMENTS. If they did it in international football and US pro sports, they can do it in CFB.

DER TAG!

(To those who feel otherwise, NO DISRESPECT INTENDED. My words reflect nothing more than my opinion.)

I just want to say that it is a real privilege to read your opinions on various topics related to ND football. Thank you for contributing to this forum.

 

[Fightingirish595]

All of this reminds me of my Medieval history and philosophy courses where we studied the ABSURD NOTION that scholars could prove VIA REASON the existence of the CHRISTIAN GOD using a word-based philosophical formula devised by a PAGAN GREEK.

What in the end was it REALLY?

DISCOURSE.

Also known as TALK.

Often ruled by BIAS and SPECULATION.

My question isn’t WHO IS BETTER THAN WHO based on a series of past events that can never be adjusted COMPREHENSIVELY ENOUGH for the DYNAMIC CHANGES that occur from week to week – not to mention MOMENT TO MOMENT, IN-GAME -- and therefore, according to your post, can only successfully predict 6 out of 10 outcomes, if that. (Not exactly PROBABILISTIC WIZARDRY, right?)

My question is WHICH is more GERMANE? The game or the rankings?

I think that for some it’s the RANKINGS as they generate ANTICIPATORY CONVERSATION of a type almost unique to college football where we have this PLETHORA of teams that either a) don’t play each other or b) don’t feed into a TRULY CHAMPION-PRODUCING elimination system. And in some cases, both.

College football has always featured more than its share of “scholastic” subjectivity. While it’s always had regional conferences that produced locally dominant teams, in order to decide on a NATIONAL champion it had to do so MYTHICALLY.

First, it was various wire services and sporting associations that did this, often with local prejudices and affiliations in mind. Later, it was done by purely voting – again with an INORDINATE AMOUNT OF BIAS at times. While, lately, computerized data models have been introduced which can only measure what they HAVEN’T LEFT OUT.

All of these “techniques,” arising from an inability to determine the best TEAM(S) in college football, have along the way, morphed into DEVICES meant to PREDICT what can only be determined – NOT BY ACCLIMATION OR VOTING OR COMPUTATION OF ANY KIND – but simply ON THE FIELD.

So, what then do rankings ACTUALLY DO other than assert in an elaborate, attention-grabbing way that MY OLD MAN CAN WHIP YOUR OLD MAN’S ASS?

If that’s the payoff, well, to me, that’s PRETTY THIN BEER. But then, people do drink a lot of BUD LIGHT. (Or at least THEY USED TO!)

To me, the whole PREDICTIVE RACKET – UNLESS YOU’RE SOMEONE – VIA CON DIOS -- WHO THINKS HE CAN BEAT THE SYSTEM GAMBLING – is just MEANINGLESS TALK. CONVERSATION.

WHICH IS FINE.

But to get TOTALLY INVESTED IN THIS OR THAT SYSTEM and see it as some kind of DEFINTIVE PROOF of one team or another’s ACTUAL STRENGTH or, worse, some INSIDE-FOOTBALL PARTISAN WEAPON, doesn’t make much sense to me when the only thing that counts is the GAME ITSELF.

As I’ve written elsewhere, I can’t wait until all of this “PREDICTIVE SCIENCE” is SWEPT AWAY by one or more COMPREHENSIVE ELIMINATION SYSTEMS which will reward ACTUAL WINNERS for ACTUAL ACCOMPLISHMENTS. If they did it in international football and US pro sports, they can do it in CFB.

DER TAG!

(To those who feel otherwise, NO DISRESPECT INTENDED. My words reflect nothing more than my opinion.

You realize all these numbers are medians right?

The closing line is extremely efficient, in that it is a great predictor of the median outcome.

SP+ is a very solid median predictor.

Expecting any model to beat the spread by 60 percent is ridiculous long term. Almost impossible.

I’m sure SP+ FEI and F+ straight up in just predicting winners of games is much higher than 60 percent.

 

[deadirishpoet]

I don’t care at all about F+ rankings. I only care about the playoff committee rankings towards the end of the season. But I do care about objective opinions being expressed about the state of ND football; and for the first time in a very long time, I appreciated your perspective. Not looking for cheer leaders, or folks that necessarily agree with me, just objective fair narratives. Agree there are lots of good things happening in the program, and this game Saturday is an excellent yardstick for measuring where we are as a program, and where we need to be.

And head to head matchups are a critical part

 

[Telx1]

And head to head matchups are a critical part

Our defensive line against their offensive line is the matchup that sticks out to me as beyond critical. If we can win this matchup and dominate their OL, we keep their running game in check and put pressure on their relatively inexperienced QB. If we can pressure their QB into mistakes and hurried throws, we take away their elite receivers. IF…IF…IF... We need Mills to finally dominate at his position, something we have yet to see!

 

[4-4-3]

I just want to say that it is a real privilege to read your opinions on various topics related to ND football. Thank you for contributing to this forum.

Thanks for the shoutout. Some – or is it many? – will disagree with you.

Finding one’s AUTHENTIC VOICE in a CONTENTIOUS ENVIRONMENT isn’t easy. And the temptation to EXPRESS CONTEMPT is at times difficult to resist. So, one learns CONTROL.

Still, never underestimate the value of CONTRARIAN POINTS OF VIEW. There’s NO REAL EXCHANGE possible when everyone is huddled together on one side of the ship. Plus, in a rough sea, the ship may capsize.

Keep an eye on the weather and the lifeboats.

 

[NDinNJ]

You realize all these numbers are medians right?

The closing line is extremely efficient, in that it is a great predictor of the median outcome.

SP+ is a very solid median predictor.

Expecting any model to beat the spread by 60 percent is ridiculous long term. Almost impossible.

I’m sure SP+ FEI and F+ straight up in just predicting winners of games is much higher than 60 percent.

whatever you say Chase.

 

[Fightingirish595]

whatever you say Chase.

Low iq will low iq

 

[NDinNJ]

Low iq will low iq

You shouldn't denigrate yourself. Have some self confidence Chase.

 

[Fightingirish595]

You shouldn't denigrate yourself. Have some self confidence Chase.

?

I was talking about you. Doesn’t surprise me that you’re reading comprehension sucks

 

[sjb75]

All of this reminds me of my Medieval history and philosophy courses where we studied the ABSURD NOTION that scholars could prove VIA REASON the existence of the CHRISTIAN GOD using a word-based philosophical formula devised by a PAGAN GREEK.

What in the end was it REALLY?

DISCOURSE.

Also known as TALK.

Often ruled by BIAS and SPECULATION.

My question isn’t WHO IS BETTER THAN WHO based on a series of past events that can never be adjusted COMPREHENSIVELY ENOUGH for the DYNAMIC CHANGES that occur from week to week – not to mention MOMENT TO MOMENT, IN-GAME -- and therefore, according to your post, can only successfully predict 6 out of 10 outcomes, if that. (Not exactly PROBABILISTIC WIZARDRY, right?)

My question is WHICH is more GERMANE? The game or the rankings?

I think that for some it’s the RANKINGS as they generate ANTICIPATORY CONVERSATION of a type almost unique to college football where we have this PLETHORA of teams that either a) don’t play each other or b) don’t feed into a TRULY CHAMPION-PRODUCING elimination system. And in some cases, both.

College football has always featured more than its share of “scholastic” subjectivity. While it’s always had regional conferences that produced locally dominant teams, in order to decide on a NATIONAL champion it had to do so MYTHICALLY.

First, it was various wire services and sporting associations that did this, often with local prejudices and affiliations in mind. Later, it was done by purely voting – again with an INORDINATE AMOUNT OF BIAS at times. While, lately, computerized data models have been introduced which can only measure what they HAVEN’T LEFT OUT.

All of these “techniques,” arising from an inability to determine the best TEAM(S) in college football, have along the way, morphed into DEVICES meant to PREDICT what can only be determined – NOT BY ACCLIMATION OR VOTING OR COMPUTATION OF ANY KIND – but simply ON THE FIELD.

So, what then do rankings ACTUALLY DO other than assert in an elaborate, attention-grabbing way that MY OLD MAN CAN WHIP YOUR OLD MAN’S ASS?

If that’s the payoff, well, to me, that’s PRETTY THIN BEER. But then, people do drink a lot of BUD LIGHT. (Or at least THEY USED TO!)

To me, the whole PREDICTIVE RACKET – UNLESS YOU’RE SOMEONE – VIA CON DIOS -- WHO THINKS HE CAN BEAT THE SYSTEM GAMBLING – is just MEANINGLESS TALK. CONVERSATION.

WHICH IS FINE.

But to get TOTALLY INVESTED IN THIS OR THAT SYSTEM and see it as some kind of DEFINTIVE PROOF of one team or another’s ACTUAL STRENGTH or, worse, some INSIDE-FOOTBALL PARTISAN WEAPON, doesn’t make much sense to me when the only thing that counts is the GAME ITSELF.

As I’ve written elsewhere, I can’t wait until all of this “PREDICTIVE SCIENCE” is SWEPT AWAY by one or more COMPREHENSIVE ELIMINATION SYSTEMS which will reward ACTUAL WINNERS for ACTUAL ACCOMPLISHMENTS. If they did it in international football and US pro sports, they can do it in CFB.

DER TAG!

(To those who feel otherwise, NO DISRESPECT INTENDED. My words reflect nothing more than my opinion.)

I just want to say that it is a real privilege to read your opinions on various topics related to ND football. Thank you for contributing to this forum.

Pure gold.

 

[deadirishpoet]

All of this reminds me of my Medieval history and philosophy courses where we studied the ABSURD NOTION that scholars could prove VIA REASON the existence of the CHRISTIAN GOD using a word-based philosophical formula devised by a PAGAN GREEK.

What in the end was it REALLY?

DISCOURSE.

Also known as TALK.

Often ruled by BIAS and SPECULATION.

My question isn’t WHO IS BETTER THAN WHO based on a series of past events that can never be adjusted COMPREHENSIVELY ENOUGH for the DYNAMIC CHANGES that occur from week to week – not to mention MOMENT TO MOMENT, IN-GAME -- and therefore, according to your post, can only successfully predict 6 out of 10 outcomes, if that. (Not exactly PROBABILISTIC WIZARDRY, right?)

My question is WHICH is more GERMANE? The game or the rankings?

I think that for some it’s the RANKINGS as they generate ANTICIPATORY CONVERSATION of a type almost unique to college football where we have this PLETHORA of teams that either a) don’t play each other or b) don’t feed into a TRULY CHAMPION-PRODUCING elimination system. And in some cases, both.

College football has always featured more than its share of “scholastic” subjectivity. While it’s always had regional conferences that produced locally dominant teams, in order to decide on a NATIONAL champion it had to do so MYTHICALLY.

First, it was various wire services and sporting associations that did this, often with local prejudices and affiliations in mind. Later, it was done by purely voting – again with an INORDINATE AMOUNT OF BIAS at times. While, lately, computerized data models have been introduced which can only measure what they HAVEN’T LEFT OUT.

All of these “techniques,” arising from an inability to determine the best TEAM(S) in college football, have along the way, morphed into DEVICES meant to PREDICT what can only be determined – NOT BY ACCLIMATION OR VOTING OR COMPUTATION OF ANY KIND – but simply ON THE FIELD.

So, what then do rankings ACTUALLY DO other than assert in an elaborate, attention-grabbing way that MY OLD MAN CAN WHIP YOUR OLD MAN’S ASS?

If that’s the payoff, well, to me, that’s PRETTY THIN BEER. But then, people do drink a lot of BUD LIGHT. (Or at least THEY USED TO!)

To me, the whole PREDICTIVE RACKET – UNLESS YOU’RE SOMEONE – VIA CON DIOS -- WHO THINKS HE CAN BEAT THE SYSTEM GAMBLING – is just MEANINGLESS TALK. CONVERSATION.

WHICH IS FINE.

But to get TOTALLY INVESTED IN THIS OR THAT SYSTEM and see it as some kind of DEFINTIVE PROOF of one team or another’s ACTUAL STRENGTH or, worse, some INSIDE-FOOTBALL PARTISAN WEAPON, doesn’t make much sense to me when the only thing that counts is the GAME ITSELF.

As I’ve written elsewhere, I can’t wait until all of this “PREDICTIVE SCIENCE” is SWEPT AWAY by one or more COMPREHENSIVE ELIMINATION SYSTEMS which will reward ACTUAL WINNERS for ACTUAL ACCOMPLISHMENTS. If they did it in international football and US pro sports, they can do it in CFB.

DER TAG!

(To those who feel otherwise, NO DISRESPECT INTENDED. My words reflect nothing more than my opinion.)

That will never happen. Sports booking is to big to fail

 

[4-4-3]

That will never happen. Sports booking is to big to fail

Sorry, not following your meaning. WHAT will never happen?

 

[christophero]

The OP is okay. The use of caps is a bit over the top, but he knows his stuff and clearly loved ND.

 

[Golson5]

The OP is okay. The use of caps is a bit over the top, but he knows his stuff and clearly loved ND.

I think you got every statement wrong here. Impressive

 

[christophero]

I'm not really interested in your guy's little squabbles. As long as we win tomorrow.

 

[Golson5]

I'm not really interested in your guy's little squabbles. As long as we win tomorrow.

Okay Chase

 

[Patrirish]

I just want to say that it is a real privilege to read your opinions on various topics related to ND football. Thank you for contributing to this forum.

👍

 

[BGI User 756]

The OP is okay. The use of caps is a bit over the top, but he knows his stuff and clearly loved ND.

Bullshit