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Navy Is a Good Measuring Stick

J

Juniper_Run

Future coach
Sep 3, 2018
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Enumclaw, Washington
Navy is one of the last teams that I would expect to serve as a good measuring stick or barometer for our seasons. But as I look back at recent history, our success against Navy has been a near perfect mirror of our overall success each season. In all of our 1-2 loss seasons since 2012 we have blown out the Midshipmen. In all of our 3-5 loss seasons since 2012, we have beaten them by 3-10 points. In our historically bad 2016 season, we lost to them.

Never read too much into one single game, I know. But we have pretty good evidence from recent seasons that Saturday's result was a quality indicator of our team's success this season. Go Irish!
 
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Juniper_Run said:
Navy is one of the last teams that I would expect to serve as a good measuring stick or barometer for our seasons. But as I look back at recent history, our success against Navy has been a near perfect mirror of our overall success each season. In all of our 1-2 loss seasons since 2012 we have blown out the Midshipmen. In all of our 3-5 loss seasons since 2012, we have beaten them by 3-10 points. In our historically bad 2016 season, we lost to them.

Never read too much into one single game, I know. But we have pretty good evidence from recent seasons that Saturday's result was a quality indicator of our team's success this season. Go Irish!
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I would say there is a huge difference in playing Navy in game one and playing them after five weeks of good to tough opponents. Having several weeks to prepare for their option magic helps a lot.

It was a good game though. ND took care of business, which is all you can ask when your opponent is physically over matched.
 
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ivan brunetti said:
I would say there is a huge difference in playing Navy in game one and playing them after five weeks of good to tough opponents. Having several weeks to prepare for their option magic helps a lot.

It was a good game though. ND took care of business, which is all you can ask when your opponent is physically over matched.
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Accurate. Huge difference in having weeks to prepare against option versus 1 week.
 
Juniper_Run said:
Navy is one of the last teams that I would expect to serve as a good measuring stick or barometer for our seasons. But as I look back at recent history, our success against Navy has been a near perfect mirror of our overall success each season. In all of our 1-2 loss seasons since 2012 we have blown out the Midshipmen. In all of our 3-5 loss seasons since 2012, we have beaten them by 3-10 points. In our historically bad 2016 season, we lost to them.

Never read too much into one single game, I know. But we have pretty good evidence from recent seasons that Saturday's result was a quality indicator of our team's success this season. Go Irish!
Click to expand...

Week 3 will be a good measuring stick. These first two games mean nothing.
 
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IrishMike409 said:
Yes……but don’t forget week 2 last season.
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I really don't see a repeat of Marshall. I suppose there could be a series of catastrophic injuries, but a.) the talent differential is going to be too great; b.) I think Golden has a better feel for his defense after a year; c.) Hartman is better than Buchner and Pyne combined and d.) after one game, I'm really excited about the prospects for our offensive line under Joe Rudolph.
 
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HDK said:
I really don't see a repeat of Marshall. I suppose there could be a series of catastrophic injuries, but a.) the talent differential is going to be too great; b.) I think Golden has a better feel for his defense after a year; c.) Hartman is better than Buchner and Pyne combined and d.) after one game, I'm really excited about the prospects for our offensive line under Joe Rudolph.
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I agree w all that.
 
BGI User 1596 said:
Appalachian State stunned No. 5 Michigan as 33-point underdogs in "The Big House".
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They weren't 33 point underdogs. They didn't have an official line for FBS vs FCS games back then. Prior to the game I saw -24.5. Remember, they were two time defending FCS champs.

At the end of the year, 9-4 Michigan would have been about an -8 point favorite (Sagarin) over Appy State. So it was definitely an upset, but nothing close to record breaking. Sort of like losing to Northwestern. It was "stunning" to some fans because few understood back then that the best FCS programs are actually pretty good.
 
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5 Michigan was a 33-point favorite over FCS-side Appalachian State at the big house, which comes out to about +8500 if a moneyline was available. Perhaps the Mountaineers found a book where they could make that wager and took some of the $400,000 they were paid to come and play the Wolverines on Sept. 1, 2007.
 
BGI User 1596 said:
5 Michigan was a 33-point favorite over FCS-side Appalachian State at the big house, which comes out to about +8500 if a moneyline was available. Perhaps the Mountaineers found a book where they could make that wager and took some of the $400,000 they were paid to come and play the Wolverines on Sept. 1, 2007.
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No, you are wrong about the odds. And the odds were wrong about how good that Appy State team was.

The following week, Michigan lost 39-7 to Oregon who played the same offense as Appy State. Thank god we got to next play ND, winning 38-0.
 
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ivan brunetti said:
No, you are wrong about the odds. And the odds were wrong about how good that Appy State team was.

The following week, Michigan lost 39-7 to Oregon who played the same offense as Appy State. Thank god we got to next play ND, winning 38-0.
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Good point Ivan. And looking for other silver linings, thank God that because of your truly historic loss to App State the epic Sparty punt flub loss was only the second worst choke job of all time. I don't think any program will ever top that ignominy. So you have that going for you too....
 
Juniper_Run said:
Navy is one of the last teams that I would expect to serve as a good measuring stick or barometer for our seasons. But as I look back at recent history, our success against Navy has been a near perfect mirror of our overall success each season. In all of our 1-2 loss seasons since 2012 we have blown out the Midshipmen. In all of our 3-5 loss seasons since 2012, we have beaten them by 3-10 points. In our historically bad 2016 season, we lost to them.

Never read too much into one single game, I know. But we have pretty good evidence from recent seasons that Saturday's result was a quality indicator of our team's success this season. Go Irish!
Click to expand...
I think the National narrative of Navy being a bad football team is wrong. They were 4-8 last year but they lost a number of close games against good teams. And they are in the top 20% of returning minutes. I understand there's some instability associated with whatever went on with their coach. But they could very well be a solid team this year, and once a national narrative gets started, and all the Talking Heads join in, reality sometimes goes out the door. We will see but It don't buy it.
 
ivan brunetti said:
No, you are wrong about the odds. And the odds were wrong about how good that Appy State team was.

The following week, Michigan lost 39-7 to Oregon who played the same offense as Appy State. Thank god we got to next play ND, winning 38-0.
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I've always found it mildly ironic that Notre Dame fans keep pointing to Michigan's loss to Appalachian State when that same Michigan team crushed Notre Dame 38-0 two weeks later.
 
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melstew said:
Good point Ivan. And looking for other silver linings, thank God that because of your truly historic loss to App State the epic Sparty punt flub loss was only the second worst choke job of all time. I don't think any program will ever top that ignominy. So you have that going for you too....
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It is a good thing you missed Denard Robinson's second game against ND. I won't go into further detail.
 
IrishMike409 said:
Yes……but don’t forget week 2 last season.
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This is way different. It’s middle of the road to bad FCS team. Marshall was a low ranked FBS, but still had several potential NFL players on its roster. I think even that shit show performance vs Marshall last season would still be a 30+ point win over TN State. Kelly was a play away from losing to Toledo. Those teams have guys. There’s no excuse, but when you come out flat vs FBS teams it happens.

If Freeman lost to a FCS TN State he should be fired on the spot. And I mean that sincerely bc to lose this game you’d have to try to lose or be so inept and worthless that you shouldn’t be coaching at the college level. But he’s not going to lose. It won’t even be remotely close even if we played our entire team of backups from the start to finish. The only thing TN State has going for it is they are HBCU and Freeman probably wants to stay popular with Eddie George so he will likely let off the gas and run the ball once we get to 30 points.
 
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IrishBeer said:
This is way different. It’s middle of the road to bad FCS team. Marshall was a low ranked FBS, but still had several potential NFL players on its roster. I think even that shit show performance vs Marshall last season would still be a 30+ point win over TN State. Kelly was a play away from losing to Toledo. Those teams have guys. There’s no excuse, but when you come out flat vs FBS teams it happens.

If Freeman lost to a FCS TN State he should be fired on the spot. And I mean that sincerely bc to lose this game you’d have to try to lose or be so inept and worthless that you shouldn’t be coaching at the college level. But he’s not going to lose. It won’t even be remotely close even if we played our entire team of backups from the start to finish. The only thing TN State has going for it is they are HBCU and Freeman probably wants to stay popular with Eddie George so he will likely let off the gas and run the ball once we get to 30 points.
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The kind of game everyone gets a chance to play. For some kids, this might be their only time on the field ever. It is fun to see the practice squad get their moment of glory.

rudy-2-colonel-sanders-2019.jpg
 
Much like the Skunkbears playing the mighty Pirates of East Carolina.
 
ivan brunetti said:
I would say there is a huge difference in playing Navy in game one and playing them after five weeks of good to tough opponents. Having several weeks to prepare for their option magic helps a lot.

It was a good game though. ND took care of business, which is all you can ask when your opponent is physically over matched.
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That's a reasonable argument, but I don't think it's a huge difference. Looking back at Navy's recent seasons, I don't see a big gap in their week 1 performance vs the rest of their games. I think taking care of business against Navy is always achievable for talented teams, but it's a difficult challenge. Our performance may only say a bit about our ceiling, but I think it says a ton about our floor this season.
 
HDK said:
I've always found it mildly ironic that Notre Dame fans keep pointing to Michigan's loss to Appalachian State when that same Michigan team crushed Notre Dame 38-0 two weeks later.
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"I've always found it mildly ironic that Notre Dame fans keep pointing to Michigan's loss to Appalachian State when that same Michigan team crushed Notre Dame 38-0 two weeks later."

I think, that ND team in 2007 -- App State may have been a lot for ND to handle
 
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ivan brunetti said:
They weren't 33 point underdogs. They didn't have an official line for FBS vs FCS games back then. Prior to the game I saw -24.5. Remember, they were two time defending FCS champs.

At the end of the year, 9-4 Michigan would have been about an -8 point favorite (Sagarin) over Appy State. So it was definitely an upset, but nothing close to record breaking. Sort of like losing to Northwestern. It was "stunning" to some fans because few understood back then that the best FCS programs are actually pretty good.
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Michigan vs App State would be like ND vs South Dakota State. Who lost 7-6 to Iowa last year. Those programs are legit. NDSU, Montana, SD State etc.
 
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I
Juniper_Run said:
Navy is one of the last teams that I would expect to serve as a good measuring stick or barometer for our seasons. But as I look back at recent history, our success against Navy has been a near perfect mirror of our overall success each season. In all of our 1-2 loss seasons since 2012 we have blown out the Midshipmen. In all of our 3-5 loss seasons since 2012, we have beaten them by 3-10 points. In our historically bad 2016 season, we lost to them.

Never read too much into one single game, I know. But we have pretty good evidence from recent seasons that Saturday's result was a quality indicator of our team's success this season. Go Irish!
Click to expand...
It seemed like the Irish played down to some opponents not just Navy
 
deadirishpoet said:
I
It seemed like the Irish played down to some opponents not just Navy
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There's something about Navy in particular, though. When we played down to Toledo in 2021, for example, it was an anomaly. That team wasn't a title contender, but it was a legit top 15 team. There are examples in the other direction too, like when we beat Miami in an otherwise abysmal 2016 season.

But with Navy, every single time we've played down to them it has been in a mostly disappointing season. Every single time we've blown them out it has been in a mostly successful season. It's pretty remarkable, actually.
 
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ivan brunetti said:
I would say there is a huge difference in playing Navy in game one and playing them after five weeks of good to tough opponents. Having several weeks to prepare for their option magic helps a lot.

It was a good game though. ND took care of business, which is all you can ask when your opponent is physically over matched.
Click to expand...
the good big man will beat the good little man a preponderance of the time
 
IrishBeer said:
This is way different. It’s middle of the road to bad FCS team. Marshall was a low ranked FBS, but still had several potential NFL players on its roster. I think even that shit show performance vs Marshall last season would still be a 30+ point win over TN State. Kelly was a play away from losing to Toledo. Those teams have guys. There’s no excuse, but when you come out flat vs FBS teams it happens.

If Freeman lost to a FCS TN State he should be fired on the spot. And I mean that sincerely bc to lose this game you’d have to try to lose or be so inept and worthless that you shouldn’t be coaching at the college level. But he’s not going to lose. It won’t even be remotely close even if we played our entire team of backups from the start to finish. The only thing TN State has going for it is they are HBCU and Freeman probably wants to stay popular with Eddie George so he will likely let off the gas and run the ball once we get to 30 points.
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Marshall was a good team last year. People forget that.

They were better than Stanford
 
sluggo69 said:
Much like the Skunkbears playing the mighty Pirates of East Carolina.
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ECU is not shitty! 8-5. Were an extra point away from OT with NCState. Lost to Cinci by 2. Beat UCF. Beat BYU. Rolled Coastal in the bowl game. Hung with Tulane.
 
No one here is saying otherwise, and probably about 0.37% of the posters are happy with playing such a team. Skunkbear fans on the other hand will be beating their chests after starting 5-0 against the murderer's row of ECU, UNLV, Boiling Green, Rutgers and Nebraska.
 
sluggo69 said:
No one here is saying otherwise, and probably about 0.37% of the posters are happy with playing such a team. Skunkbear fans on the other hand will be beating their chests after starting 5-0 against the murderer's row of ECU, UNLV, Boiling Green, Rutgers and Nebraska.
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This upcoming season, Michigan is continuing to abide by that mantra by playing the equivalent of an intramural schedule in the opening non-conference portion before playing an easier conference schedule than last season….
Zero for Bo!
 
sluggo69 said:
No one here is saying otherwise, and probably about 0.37% of the posters are happy with playing such a team. Skunkbear fans on the other hand will be beating their chests after starting 5-0 against the murderer's row of ECU, UNLV, Boiling Green, Rutgers and Nebraska.
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I don't know about beating my chest, but ECU, UNLV & BG is still slightly tougher than Navy, CMU & Tennessee State.
 
ivan brunetti said:
I looked at the three easiest games scheduled by both schools. ND doesn't schedule their ACC games, and Michigan doesn't schedule its B10 games.
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Look at the first 3 games and look at the 12 games. ND has the tougher schedule

Michigan schedule is a joke. It's a 2 game schedule
 
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Golson5 said:
Look at the first 3 games and look at the 12 games. ND has the tougher schedule

Michigan schedule is a joke. It's a 2 game schedule
Click to expand...

Uh huh. But we are a playoff favorite.

I'll somehow live with that combo.
 
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