You’re either too stupid or too stubborn to conclude that Vegas predicts the score of the games by supplying two crucial numbers, the over/under and the point spread.
it’s mathematically undeniable and math is still a science.
N.C. State vs ND - ND only favored by
- Thread starter Patrirish
- Start date
it’s mathematically undeniable and math is still a science.
I think the one being stubborn is you. I don’t think you’re dumb though, just slow.
CAN ANYBODY SHOW ME HOW TO MAKE THE FONT BIGGER?
Winning 16 of 17 at home is nice, but only one of those teams was a top 15 team and you had to go to 2 OT's to do it. Your out of conference schedule last year was atrocious, you lost to a Clemson team we whooped easily, beat FSU in the middle of a 3 game losing streak for them. You might have a decent defense but your offense looks to be lacking. Appears you didn't exactly lay it on Connecticut either to start the year.
I recall another post of yours mentioning 13 4star starters (or thereabouts), which is nice, but ND is probably starting 20 4stars with another 15-18 in back-up mode (they have 2nd most 4 stars in the nation I believe). This ND team is the most balanced I've seen in at least a decade, and they have a QB who can read defenses, hang in the pocket and distribute the ball all over the field. He is protected by a top tier line and has a solid 3-4 RB's to hand the ball to. I'd like more elite players on the DL and LB but the guys are solid and deep. Last time we visited Raleigh it didn't turn out so well, but, I believe this time will be different. I'd be surprised at anything less than a 10 point victory. I'm not overlooking NC State, I just think this ND team is ready to take the next step forward. Freeman is 11-2 in his last 13 with 4 top 20 wins. Should be a great game in a great environment. Thanks for the reply and good luck!
To be fair Vegas oddsmakers true intent is to entice equal betting on both sides of the line. They much prefer as close to 50% as possible & rake the juice. Also its common knowledge home team gets 3 points for home field advantage. So the line makes think ND is an 11 point favorite on a nuetral field.
Getting 50-50 money would certainly eliminate any risk, that’s obvious !
So how do they do that ? ……. by calling Kreskin and asking him to ordain what an essentially ignorant betting public thinks the line should be ?
If they did that, the smart money, the gambling pros would bury them just prior to the close of the betting windows.
No, Vegas sets the line based upon what they calculate the final score to be.
Here’s a test for everyone on this site, especially those who think that they’re sophisticated football fans. I think it’s safe to say that you‘re more knowledgeable than the “betting public”
For fun, in the next few days pick the scores for the Central Michigan, Ohio State, Duke, Louisville and USC games. By picking the score you‘ll establish the point spread and the O/U.
Then we can compare what you, who represent the “betting public” think and compare it to what Vegas thinks.
it should be an interesting exercise.
I’ll list the games in my next post
1st most sites, books already know who the sharps are and will only let them e bet a fixed amount or flat out ban them. Some sites will take sharps action & adjust the spread & moneyline based on their bets.
Injuries can change all these but
Id go
ND -23.5 vs CMU
ND +5 vs OSU
ND -4 vs Duke
ND -10 vs Lville
ND +3 vs USC
ND was a 17.5 point underdog to OSU last year. Since nothing has really changed/improved fundamentally in the program since then, i'm guessing the line will be pretty close again this year.
Ah alot has changed. Stroud was a top QB & Heisman candidate now they have a 1st yr starter. ND had a 1st time starter & a rookie coach playing on the road in a night game now they have a Heisman type QB at home, OSU had two 1st rd WR's & while they are still loaded with talent they didnt look as dominant as years before. Barring major injuries the spread will be closer to 5 than 18.
Marvin Harrison Jr will get more Heisman votes than Hartman. Otherwise, generally agree. OSU needs to get its offense in gear to have a chance. I wonder if they can afford to keep the playbook closed vs Western Kentucky. They need reps more than they need secrecy.
Its hard to look at college teams from the previous year unless your a fan. What did you lose/gain over the off season?
ND massively gained on Offense, stayed the same on defense, maybe a slight drop off in the DL.
Be interesting to know your take on the +/- on your Offense and Defense.
Common opponents last year were Clemson, Cuse, BC and NCC. Clemson put up 14 on ND, 20 on State. Cuse put up 24 on both. BC put up 21 on state, zero on ND. NC was 27 on State, 31 on ND.
Outside of BC, there is not much difference in the defensive capabilities of these teams.
Offensively, last year there is a very large margin. ND averaged about 15pts more per common opponent. Skewed a bit by the BC blowout but it all counts as that is a huge rival (one-way) for BC.
I do think the defenses will hold their own, both sides. New clock rules change scores lots. This will be a tough game, ND has issues at those 2 guard spots and our right tackle has not lived up to the 5 stars.
But, this is a much better offense than last year and a call it even defense. NC would have to have materially improved their offense (if history is the driver based on your post) based on last year to win this game (outside of mistakes/turn overs). That, I cannot answer.
Regardless, this game will tell us lots about both teams and our quest to the playoffs. Looking forward to it!!
I responded to one of your posts on OL play yesterday. To be clear, I wasn’t necessarily trying to say the OL was good. I just wanted to discuss some things I saw in the game.
Fisher and Rocco seemed to have some issues for sure. I hope it gets corrected.
Nice post. I admire your confidence after an 8-4 season with bad losses. But it was also year one with Freeman, so you are right to expect a big leap. I am not sure what four top 20 teams you are talking about. I count one, Clemson. Undoubtably a great win. Seems unfair to discredit 16 of 17 wins at home due to only one top 15 win, but you laud your recent 11-2 success which also only has one top 15 win. But your point remains that you are on a roll. I think that is great.
With regard to your point about 4 star players, yes, I would expect ND to have a boatload of talent compared to us. I only made that point in response to a poster that suggested NC State has no talent. That is not the case. Thanks for your reply and I just hope NC State can keep it close and respectable. Maybe if we can get some turnovers and with a little luck have a chance at the end.
Nice post. Like you said, comparing to last year is not always very fruitful or accurate. I think comparing common opponents that were played at different times of the year is also not very fruitful in the college game. But you bring up some good stats.
With regard to your +/- question - we lost 2 really good LB's and a really good safety and corner on defense. The DL improved, and linebackers are still very solid. We still have our best LB, Payton Wilson (#11). Irish fans will love this guy. Big, strong and athletic, plays with a mean streak. Our two corners are very good this year. But we did lose 2 defensive starters who made NFL rosters, and 3 more on practice squads. I do think overall, the defense will be about the same in terms of production. Possibly a slight dip. All of our defensive replacements have played a lot of snaps, so that is encouraging.
On offense, tough to compare the QB's because we had to play 4 last year due to injury. We lost Leary early in the year. Armstrong is a good player, so I think considering last years injuries, we improved at QB. The offensive line is slightly improved, but not dramatically so. Frankly the jury is still out on that. Our RB room is the same. We have a deep stable of solid backs, but nobody that is a stud, at least right now. We lost two good wideouts, so I think WR took a dip from last year. We do have a lot of talented wideouts, but we don't know who will emerge as the star. Given that we lost 2 proven guys it is tough for me to argue our wideouts are not a - from last year, at least at this point.
We are not better than last year, which was an 8 win season only because we had to play a 4th string quarterback in at least 4 games. I do think we win about 8 this year. I think we win 9 if we are lucky. No chance at 10. But you will need to beat a 10 win type team at home, as we historically play up to our competition in Raleigh. The sentiment of our fans is basically, don't get killed, try and keep it close, and if we get lucky with some breaks, hopefully have a chance at the end. If we cover I don't think anyone would complain. I just hope we catch some breaks and play well enough to find ourselves in a dogfight at the end of the game.
I look forward to watching Hartman again, as he was always one of my favorites to watch. He does like to throw us the ball, but then he makes ridiculous throws that spark his team. He will need to turn it over at least twice for us to have a chance.
Thank you for the insight. Payton is the real deal, would start at ND, IMHO is the best LB on the field this weekend. These games grind on teams that have a drop off in subs usually. Really appreciate you coming on the board and sharing. I wish more opposing fans would each week!
We are so happy with Same YTD. Not only his play, just the person. Some good humans come out of that area.
We are so happy with Same YTD. Not only his play, just the person. Some good humans come out of that area.
I looked at ESPN schedules, so I assume the ranking is as of the time game is played? Without a doubt my confidence is placed more in the drastic improvement of our starting QB position, followed by experience for our young head coach. If Hartman goes down we don't exactly know what we have in either back-up QB position and that could be trouble.
Chase, they lost their all star QB and now have an unproven one. We lost our unproven one and picked up a proven one. QB is still the most important position on the field. That's a BIG fundamental change.
Pat - again you are wrong on so many levels. Think about it for one minute without your internet ego getting in the way and you using large fonts and name calling. Let's start with a basic premise you cannot disagree with: bookmakers make no money (none, as in $0) if they predict the total points scored (o/u) and the margin of victory (spread) exactly right. If the outcome results in a push, all money gets returned and the house actually loses because they spent a fortune paying mathematicians, statisticians, actuaries, programmers, and other experts to come up with the lines that were exactly right and then marketing those lines to the betting public. So - we can absolutely agree that the house's goal is definitively not to actually predict the score. If you agree with that basic proposition which is indisputable, you are left asking yourself, what is the bookmaker's goal if it is not to get the total points and spread exactly right. Upon a little reflection, listening to what people here are saying, or just go google it and you will get the answer. They want to propose a bet that attracts both sides of the bet. Bookmakers are not gamblers - they are market makers. Ease up on the hyperbole, especially when you are in error.
I am being reasonable, not coy. I don't understand how that makes me a tool. Also how old are you. Usually only tools use the word tool. I respect ND as a program and school. I also respect most of your fans, although one less after your most recent post. If you think a poster acting in that manner makes him a tool, maybe said tool is wrong about his reasonable comments. I'll try to be more of a hardo for you so I can gain your internet respect.
Sadly, using logic and reason with him will get you nowhere. I expect he will just double down on his position and become even more obnoxious. Care to place a wager? I wonder what the line will be?
I appreciate the info you’re bringing to the board. I was unaware of the 4th string QB situation last year. NC State certainly has a good one in Armstrong. ND was lucky to not have to play him two years ago at Virginia. That guy just has a natural ability to make people miss.
Doeren has had plenty of success as a coach at NC State and NIU. You’re correct to point out the bad losses ND had last year. Either team could end up winning this game by 3 touchdowns, just like most other games.
I did a quick breakdown of the NC State UConn game. LB’s do look like they play quick and downhill. I’m not buying 4.51 speed from #11. That’s not to say he’s slow. I just don’t think he has 4.51 speed. He had a nice interception towards the end of the game against UConn.
On offense, NCSU does some interesting things that I can see giving ND fits. Navy and Tennessee State actually gave ND some problems with the QB run game so I can see the problem being magnified against NC State.
Last year, against USC, ND refused to play USC straight up and kept getting gashed on the ground by blitzing. Its possible the same will happen against State. From what I saw against TSU, I’m slightly hopeful. ND still blitzed a lot, but they were doing something with the DL to help cancel out gaps at other points in the game.
I wouldn’t at all be surprised to see Armstrong run for 90+ yards.
Thanks for your insights. Wilson is a long build, so may not appear as fast as he is on tape. In the summer, he ran a 4.43 hand time, and pro rated and assuming an additional .06 for laser, equates to a 4.49. This is the formula used at pro days by NFL scouts. He did run 22.5 mph in camp with media present. Historically, our strength staffs numbers out of camp line up with our combine testing numbers. In any event, I do expect him to run no slower than 4.55 at the combine. He did win ACC LB of the week for his efforts with 10 tackles, TFL and the aformentioned interception. You guys will like how he plays. Plays angry and sometimes overpursues as a result. But he brings the wood and fire.
I think for us, we will need to prove to ND that we can throw the ball downfield in order to open up some space for Armstrong and our backs. We have the speed on the perimeter, but UConn played 4 deep all game and we did not have one long pass. If we can't get the ball downfield and ND crowds the box, we are screwed. Our new OC, Anae, loves to use motion pre-snap to confuse the defense. It is a screen heavy offense, but that could have been because of how UConn was playing us deep. Our offense against UConn was basically dink and dunk with screen passes, short throws, then letting Armstrong take off. Sometimes Armstrong got happy feet and left too early, leaving players open downfield.
Yes, QB situation was horrible with injuries last year. Had to use the 4th stringer against Louisville, North Carolina, and our bowl game. Then third stringer against Syracuse and a few others. 2nd stringer played a host of games as well but got hurt.
I’m not the best judge on speed and agility so I could be off. I just based it off of #11 running with a UConn receiver up the sideline. Didn’t look like a 4.51 guy but I’ll take your word for it.
ND plays mostly a one-high safety coverage (instead of the quarters system that UConn was playing) trying to take away the deep middle, but I will add that they did drop him down a little bit to bring an extra number against TSU. He actually almost seems to be in a no man’s land. Not quick enough to fit on the run. Not deep enough to take away the deep middle. It will be interesting to see how that plays out since ND doesn’t really crowd the box. They’re more about blitzing.
#20 corner for ND is really good. Benjamin Morrison. ND like to press more with him to take away the short throws.
Interesting on the QB situation because I actually started a thread here where I was lightly second guessing ND’s decision to play their third string QB in case of a similar situation that NC State had last year. I was slightly concerned about losing the redshirt later in the year.
I know what play you're talking about regarding 11. I see why you have that point of view based on that particular play. I will keep an eye out for 20. What is frustrating for us is we have this kid Julian Gray, number 8, who returns kicks and is a gamebreaker when they throw it to him on offense. But they confusingly don't play him that much. Frustrating to say the least. I read it is because in our offense wideouts need to block well, and he does not. We really need to throw the ball on second down past the sticks, because we showed little ability to convert in short yardage situations last week on third and fourth down. But this is all based on such a small sample size. I hope ND challenges us on the perimeter so we can see what type of playmaking ability our wideouts have.
If I recall in 2017, your corners mugged our receivers at the LOS. This was never called by the officials. Big complaint on our end. But it was both ways. I was in South Bend in 2017 and had a positive experience, save for the fan who thought calling us white trash as NC State people was funny. Probably a typical non-alumni fan who most of you would be embarrassed about. Will be interesting to see how the officials call this game but I hope they let the kids play.
Surrogate bettors are difficult to identify and multiple surrogates make it even more difficult to limit bets.
Mr Wiggles
I love your posts usually we get some fanatic troll who has no knowledge of football. NC State also lost a safety last week due to an unfortunate injury, fortunately, he is going to be okay. Congrats on getting the new four star wide out this week. I looked at your depth chart noting NCSU has some size on the front lines
mr wiggles
I love your post most of the time we get trolls on this board who have no football knowledge. ND is missing a few players from last year mainly Foskey and Mayer, but the team has improved on offense dramatically with Hartman and ND fond gold with some frosh wide outs. It will be hard to stop ND with the stable of running backs consistently. True freshman Love is fast, plus elusive. Our defense has not played against anybody, but ND will stop the run. Teams are going to have to win by the air. ND has some good CB’s, but coverage is a little suspect. Congrats on getting a four star wide out this week. I believe it will be close early, but ND has an advantage in depth, but the pack has home field advantage and have a history of pulling off upsets. Glenwood South should be hoping either way
You’re not just wrong, you’re dead wrong !
While it’s true that no one wins or loses money with a push, psychologically, for gamblers, it incentivizes them, resulting in more betting in the future.
The House doesn’t lose a fortune if a push occurs because almost all of their costs are fixed and one game that results in a push will have little if any impact on their bottom line that week
Very few games end in a push and no games involving half points end in a push.
The percentage of games ending in pushed bets is minimal.
If Vegas predicts a wrong score they’ll get killed by smart/pro money usually placed as the window is closing. And Vegas is incapable of divining what the betting public thinks the score will be.
Do you really think that the betting public has a clue as to what the over/under is ?
Do you really think that the betting public has a clue as to what the spread is ?
They don’t!
They don’t have a clue until Vegas predicts the outcome vis a vis the O/U and spread.
They didn’t build billion dollar hotel/casinos and send jets/limos to bring bettors into town and they don’t comp betters with suites, wine, women and shows because they don’t know what they’re doing, and hiring Kreskin is not a line item in their budgets.
They predict the score before the start of every game they just can’t predict the outcomes of every game, but in totality they sure come close ! If they didn’t, they’d get killed.
I‘m not in error, and I don’t need to Google anything, i have a more reliable source than Google, trust me, I was mentored by a very savvy guy who ran a sports bar in Boca Raton, FL who was a big bettor and very familiar with the betting and the odds making process.
My source is unimpeachable !
You and the others are out of your element and ignorant when it comes to how Vegas sets the odds !
HINT: They don’t hire Kreskin to read the collective gambling public’s minds !
#20 for ND is usually aligned to the short side of the field, FYI.
If #8 for State is a freshman, he probably doesn’t have a full grasp of the offense in addition to potential blocking issues. ND had a talented freshman last year that didn’t play much last year likely because of not being able to get lined up properly.
8 is a soph. I’m sure that all still plays a role. We do, however, have one true frosh wideout, Concepcion, who got a lot of snaps last week.
Aren’t OSU like a 7 point favorite right now? You must think we will really wet the bed in Raleigh this weekend or lose to CMU.
Do you even know there are already lines on the game? It’s hard to believe you’d say something so dumb otherwise
So you are complaining officials didn’t call enough in 2017 but want officials this year to let the kids play?
Nd has complained about our wrs not getting off the LOS for years, but we have been blaming our wr coach not the officials. We have a new wr coach as of last year. Excited to see how our wrs perform
I’ll be at the game, anything cool to do near stadium? Lowes foods beer den?
No, not complaining. I said it was a “big complaint” then further clarified it was called both ways. Beer den is fun but I prefer to walk around the tailgates with beer in hand. They are everywhere and you’ll get lots of free food and booze. Especially just east of the stadium at the state fairgrounds and surrounding areas. Tailgating is taken very seriously. Actually too seriously because too many fans leave at halftime to drink before coming back into the game for the third quarter. Have fun.
