You take the O/U and factor in the point spread and it produces the predicted score.
NC State, O/U = 48, point spread 8 = game score = 28-20
N.C. State vs ND - ND only favored by
- Thread starter Patrirish
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NC State, O/U = 48, point spread 8 = game score = 28-20
I’m talking about the .5’s now. Your theory doesn’t hold water as a .5 score is impossible to achieve
But it also means that it’s not meant to be a score prediction. It’s merely a betting line to balance all the wagers.
Momentum, as in, how a team has played most recently - it's most definitely a factor.
I've gambled plenty. If you want to guarantee yourself a profit, pick the exact opposite of me over a 4 week period or longer and you'll have one.
I'd put money on anything -9.5 for this upcoming NC State game and feel pretty darn good going into it.
Vegas sets their opening line but the sharp bettors are the real line makers. Vegas adjusts off that action.
You can’t be that stupid, or can you ?
Do you think that Vegas reads the minds of the betting public and sets the lines based upon their Kreskin like abilities ?
It has nothing to do with balancing the wagers.
Vegas doesn’t know where the money will flow until AFTER the money starts rolling in.
That’s why lines move AFTER the opening line is set.
Stick to subjects where you some semblance of knowledge !
Don’t be a douche. I know it’s hard for you to control yourself, but you’ve got to try it sometime.
YOU’RE the one saying Vegas predicts score lines (remember 28-20?). I’m saying that’s impossible since they use .5 decimals in some betting lines. EVERYTHING else you stated about the line’s moving, was already stated by ME.
I mean SERIOUSLY dude?
So you’re the person that the character Eddie Mush was modeled after in “A Bronx Tale” 😜
Our golf group had a friend like that, if you wanted a winner, you went the other way.
I don’t know enough about setting the lines to predict the spreads, so I have to rely on the experts who do it for a living.
Good luck on Saturday !
I’ve tried it several times and you don’t get it because you have a misinformed and rigid mindset.
You didn’t have a clue about separate betting pools when the line moves
So, I’ll repeat my statement, Vegas predicts the score for every game other than NL games.
Consider .5’s a rounding factor that eliminates pushes
You’re mixed up in your own opinion. It’s not really worth it to me to continue this discussion with you. Good grief
You’re correct. If a Vegas book were to predict 28-21 OSU over ND, that doesn’t mean that the line will open at OSU -7 o49. It is the public perception that matters most, IMO. I would think the line would be more like OSU -9 o49 because the public perception is that its ND and they always lose the big game.
Half points are not simply to prevent a push, IMO. Lines are probably going to move up in .5 point increments. A line can open at -3. The line could also be -1 (-115 odds instead of the normal -110) and then the +1 opponent would be -105 instead of -110 thus inducing more action on the +1 team. -105 means bet $105 to win $100.
No, I’m crystal clear and you’re obtuse.
Questions for you:
1. What does the O/U represent ?
2. What does the point spread represent ?
That’s not true.
Vegas can’t predict the “public perception“ !
If they could there would be no need to move the line.
Vegas doesn’t retain Kreskin to determine the “public perception“ !
Vegas sets the line in a formulaic manner, now with computer algorithms, not psychics !
Try answering these two simple questions.
1. What does the O/U represent ?
2. What does the point spread represent ?
I‘m trying to help you understand how Vegas sets the lines and predicts the score but you’re to immature to admit that you’re misinformed, misguided and dead wrong !
Answer EACH question
The combination predicts the score but you’re either too stubborn or too stupid to understand and admit that.
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How would they calculate odds between a hypothetical 8-0 Alabama and an 8-0 UNLV or an 8-0 FCS team? The public knows that Alabama has better athletes. It doesn’t matter what the statistics of the two teams are. You have to favor Alabama.
Do you have any personal knowledge of what the algorithms are? I don’t. I’m just curious. They have to have some common sense way of knowing that the smart bet would be on Bama so they need to be the favorite (outside of extreme extenuating circumstances).
Favoring a team isn’t the issue, it’s how many points the favored team will win by and how many points both teams will score.
Common sense or the concept of common sense has nothing to do with how the opening lines are set.
The process is not random
Many years ago, before computers, I had an inkling of how they created the opening lines, today, I don’t have a clue.
This is a 7th grade Algebra 1 test !
If you know the total number of points teams A and B will score, and if you know the point differential between the points that team A and team B will score, How many points will each team score if the point total is 48 and the differential is 8 points.
For those of you who need more time, your deadline will be extended to 10:00pm EDT on 09-04-23 !
If you know the total number of points teams A and B will score, and if you know the point differential between the points that team A and team B will score, How many points will each team score if the point total is 48 and the differential is 8 points.
For those of you who need more time, your deadline will be extended to 10:00pm EDT on 09-04-23 !
Pat - you are being extremely aggressive on a topic that you clearly do not understand, and to boot you are almost 100% wrong.
For college football, there are a few sportsbooks that try to set the first line (usually Sunday). The bookmaker that posts that line usually limits the size of a bet that can be made on that line. If professional bettors see value, the line will be wagered into heavily and there will be a disproportionate amount of money going one way. The bookmaker will then adjust that very early, restricted line, if necessary, during the day. Keep in mind an enormous amount of data is considered when they set the lines, many of which have nothing to do with who will win, but what lines will generate the heaviest and most even betting. They will look at whether the public is more attracted when a certain team is favored or not favored, whether the betting is higher or lower when a team has a high spread or low spread, the proclivity of certain regions to bet for or against certain teams when teams from other regions play there (i.e. - northern schools play SEC, or southern schools playing north or west). From there, other bookmakers and online sites will usually follow that flow again limiting the size of the bets that can be made, but they will usually be pretty close to what the early houses are doing as they want to avoid an arbitrage situation where they become the one bookmaker getting all the action on a certain side. One house may completely disagree with a line that has been set, but they will not diverge and offer a new different line in order to avoid taking lopsided bets. They want to be where half the money is on one side, half on the other, and they take the vig - 10-20%. By Tuesday of game week, as more time has passed and the lines have been bet into by the pros, the more sportsbooks feel comfortable with recognizing the consensus line and they will raise their limits or remove them.
Odds makers do not make money predicting winners and losers. They make money knowing how the gambling public will respond to various bets.
You are correct. The Vegas oddsmakers set the spread at some point where they believe 50% of the money will bet on Team A and the other 50% on Team B. When that happens, Vegas makes money on the vig or the juice, i.e., the fee the sportsbooks charge for taking a bet. An ideal outcome for the sportsbook is exactly half the money is bet on one team and half the money is bet on the other. If there is a 5% vig, they make money on the juice and the bettors split the pot. As you note in another post, the line moves when the oddsmakers sense there is a lopsided amount of betting going on with one team, and they want to encourage bets on the other team. So point spreads don't necessarily represent the margin by which the oddsmakers think Team A (the favorite) will beat Team B (the underdog). The line represents the number at which the oddsmakers believe half of the bettors will put their money on one team and the other bettors will put their money on the other team. Usually that number ends up being close to the final score. Where you have a big game (like the Super Bowl) with lots of bets being made, the line probably doesn't move around a whole lot. But say you have a game that isn't drawing a lot of interest, and some guy comes in and puts a large bet on one team (think Billy Walters), the oddsmakers may move the line a few points in order to get some action going on the other team so that they can more evenly distribute their exposure if that big bet wins.
Look up who the only team in major college football not to give up over 30 points last season was. Look up who’s won 16 of 17 at home.
You’re clueless as to how the opening line is set !
And it has nothing to do with the “public’s perception”
Revised Lines, or new betting pools only get established when an unforeseen event occurs or when there’s a disproportionate flow of bets on one side.
The oddsmakers predict the score of every game, it’s a calculation involving the point spread and the over/under.
The oddsmakers don’t have a clue as to how the gambling public will bet.
If they did there would be no need to move the line.
While the oddsmakers would ideally like equal amounts bet on both sides, they make more money when a disproportionate amount is bet on the wrong side.
Stick to topics where you know what you’re talking about !
Thank you for what ….. for being dead wrong ?
Chitownrealist doesn’t have a clue on how the opening line is set.
You also don’t have a clue as to how the opening line is set.
Yes, “Moving” the opening line is a function of the flow of money.
But the opening line is not set by the use of Kreskin like abilities to predict where the betting public thinks the line should be. That’s beyond moronic !
The betting public doesn’t have a clue when it comes to setting the opening line.
Each movement of the line creates a new, separate betting pool.
So if Billy bets an inordinate amount on a line and a new line is created, that’s a new betting pool.
The money in betting pools created by shifting lines aren’t commingled as you alluded to
You’re also wrong about the ideal “outcome”
You guys are really clueless.
The ideal outcome is when the preponderance of the money is bet on the losing team.
ie.
1. Team A favored over Team B by 10 points.
2. Huge money comes in on Team B
3. Team A wins by 20
That’s where they make the most money, but since they don’t know the ultimate outcomes, their risk is ameliorated when they can come as close to 50-50 as possible.
Hope that helps
It is a 100 % predictor of the score unless you failed Algebra in the three years that you spent in 7th grade !
If Vegas gives you the total number of points that both teams will score and then Vegas gives you the point differential between the two teams, IF, and it’s a big IF, IF you passed Algebra 1 in 7th grade, you can determine the score that Vegas is predicting.
it’s mathematically undeniable, even by the morons on this site.
Now I realize that conclusion is dependent on several things.
1. That you made it to 7th grade
2. That you passed Algebra 1 in 7th or some subsequent grade.
P.S. Thanks for trying !
😜
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