Greetings. This is just a different way to view the ND UM game for week one.
I decided to look at this game not in terms of the odds of what or what will not happen but what has to happen for one team to be more likely to win over the other. A first week game is much different verses the rest of the season as certain question marks may not be question marks until after week one. There are also new players who will be quite a bit different in effectiveness in week one verses let's say week ten. Lastly a first week game can be game planned for months. I also decided to match up some opposing units and asked what did they have to do.
By far the greatest variable in this game is the QB situation on each side. There are significant question marks on both sides. The QB that performs more of what he is expected to do pushes the odds for his team the most regardless of how other position groups do. Wimbush is a great spread & shred runner who against inferior teams is a running game unto himself regardless of who
ND discovers at RB. I personally believe his running will be challenged and UM will invite him to win by pass. Wimbush's passing game really decayed over the last four games of the season and ending in a benching against LSU. This also included a lot of bad decisions that ended in TO's. He has to come through with a 58% plus completion rate while maintaining the same yards per completion. Shea Patteron will not be asked to do as much as Wimbush. UM will not do spread other than a bit of RPO to keep the defense honest. However, to beat a team like ND on the road, he will have to do something that Speight did not. There will be a few times in the game where he will have to make a play. That play was what was missing against Iowa and OSU in 2016. Regardless of his final stat lines those opportunities to do something justify tagging 5 stars to a recruit must happen. This is the most difficult postion to even project what will happen because it comes down to one individual. The reality is Patterson has to learn a new system and last year may have been wasted as the new offensive staff was incapable of running an offense. Yet the statistics of senior QB's improving their passing statitics greatly over their 3rd year is also quite low. I looked at about 120 QB's who were starters in their 3rd year and only 7% improved their passing rating by more than 10 points. 92% were within that 10 point variation with about half seeing an increase and half seeing a decrease which surprised me. Both QB's have big questions to answer and the one that comes through really sets his team up for a more likely win.
The next comparison is the ND offensive line against the UM front 7 and then reverse the comparison of the UM offensive line verses the ND front 7. I see this as an advantage for ND. For the UM front 7 to make a decisive advantage they have to play like one of the top 3 defenses in the country. They have to generate scores of havoc plays and if Wimbush's throwing motion has been corrected, make him regress by forcing hurried throws. The UM defense is mostly a bunch of former 2nd year players who are now 3rd year players. So there is room for improvement. The Notre Dame defense also has to take a step up. Last year it was good at bending but not breaking. However, the havoc plays must increase. If it is another year of attacking the offense with someone leading the team with 4 sacks that might not cut it. Much of the UM offensive line dysfunction was not losing individual battles but not identifying the proper line call. In theory a top rate Oline coach will fix that part. The ND Oline just has to do what it did last year. I see no reason why they can't, perhaps not at such a prolific rate. The biggest question mark is integrating the new starters, and preventing UM front 7 from looking like a top 3 defense but just a top 10. If they do that they have gone a long way towards winning. The UM offensive line has the largest question marks as it appears that neither starter will be a natural tackle. The Oline has to fix the line call problems and keep the havoc rate low. This is a big key. UM tackles may be stiff. But someone either through blizing or a DE stepping up as to take advantage. Last year ND did not have the DE's to make bum tackles pay. Whoever wins this battle stacks the odds for their team.
I see both secondaries as being very similiar. The corners were great in pass protection and the safties were iffy in not being safe. I do not know the ND corners very well. I do know that UM's starting pair only allowed 22 catches all year. Presuming that that the other 9 games were dogs, even if all the catches occurred against PSU, OSU, Wisc, and SC, that is still only 5.5 catches from the X and Y receivers per game. I will call it a wash as both sides have athletic but unproven receivers who have to show big numbers over a season before I call them stars. If you want to point out the LSU game I will point out the Tarik Black TD catch in week one last year. So each sides corners have to prove it. The corners that do the job mean the other offenses options are limited. Ditto for the safties as the duo that cut down the most on mistakes wins.
The biggest advantage I see for UM is RB. It is mitigated some because Wimbush is such a dynamic runner. For those who say RB's are no longer important, how come offensive coordinators do not ditch them for empty backfields? UM has 2K of total offense returning from the RB position. They ran for 125 yards at a 5.5 ypa clip against an OSU defense when RPO was an
option. It looks like Tony Jones is the 1st team RB. In my accounting including the surprise NFL jump, ND is down four of their five top RB's from last years projected 2018 depth chart. Tony Jones was probably the 3rd best case and someone you would only want to play no more than 25 snaps. He is not going to run away from anyone, make anyone miss, but he will read the blitz pickup. My guess is any frosh or converted athlete moved over to generate depth is not going to be ready
for blitz pickup in week one. I expect UM defense not only to force Wimbush to throw but force Wimbush to read option to Jones. UM will depend on Jones or whoever is the RB to not be capable of making plays or if there is a breakdown take it to the house. If a RB steps up and takes on this role I find it very difficult for UM to win. Likewise UM RB's have to replicate what they did against OSU as Patterson is the same athlete that O'Korn is. If they can run for 5.5 ypa, that will
make life easier in the passing game.
Next are the blocky catchy guys. Everyone knows that Jim Harbaugh loves blocky catchy guys as they generate all sorts of mismatches. I think the corners on both sides are going to be pretty good. If the X and Y receivers are being blanketed than it is up to slots or in the case of UM win with their two and three tight end sets. Harbaugh will definitely use 4 and the slot receiver is the most experienced. TE's are great because if a QB is flustered or errant they have huge catch radius's. It is a given that UM will probably throw at their TE's maybe a dozen times. The interesting thing for me is does Kelly go back to his old roots. ND used to be TE U. But for some reason perhaps because ND spread has become more "spread and shred" the TE does not get as many looks. Since both sides saefties were weak last year, he who utilizes the TE, Hback, FB, and slots wins. A two or three TE set is a great way to mess with a a nickel or dime package as you have poor safeties having to cover six foot eight jumping machines. Alize Mack has the great SPARC score. Someone has to use him. The team that utilizes best the other odds & ends gets an advantage.
The last comparison is the coaches. I see Brian Kelly as in a comfortable situation. If ND loses this game he will not be second guessed. ND has a manageable schedule and a 10-2 outcome probably satisfies the masses. Harbaugh has a monkey on his back. Every pundit is saying he is overrated, the 7th best coach in the Big10, can't win games, can't figure out QB's, on to infinity. He in my opinion not that he needs the motivation is going to be more zeroed in on winning this game at this moment. I think Long verses Brown is a great matchup. Where there could be tactical issues is ND's D'coordinator is in his first game. Harbaugh offenses always have smoke & mirrors that are more effective week one before teams adjust. Harbaugh or whoever is the Ocoordinator must win this matchup else it is a long night. If there are not a few RPS moments than I think it will be tough on UM.
So all things being equal here are the biggest variance in order. Wimbush must improve, UM defense must be top 3, ND must discover a RB, UM must discover 2 tackles, ND needs a 10 sack guy, Patterson must not be a dog, ND needs more blocky catchy guys, Harbaugh must win RPS, ND Dcoordinator must not make the moment bigger than him. I guess I could have said that but I am not a twitter guy.
I decided to look at this game not in terms of the odds of what or what will not happen but what has to happen for one team to be more likely to win over the other. A first week game is much different verses the rest of the season as certain question marks may not be question marks until after week one. There are also new players who will be quite a bit different in effectiveness in week one verses let's say week ten. Lastly a first week game can be game planned for months. I also decided to match up some opposing units and asked what did they have to do.
By far the greatest variable in this game is the QB situation on each side. There are significant question marks on both sides. The QB that performs more of what he is expected to do pushes the odds for his team the most regardless of how other position groups do. Wimbush is a great spread & shred runner who against inferior teams is a running game unto himself regardless of who
ND discovers at RB. I personally believe his running will be challenged and UM will invite him to win by pass. Wimbush's passing game really decayed over the last four games of the season and ending in a benching against LSU. This also included a lot of bad decisions that ended in TO's. He has to come through with a 58% plus completion rate while maintaining the same yards per completion. Shea Patteron will not be asked to do as much as Wimbush. UM will not do spread other than a bit of RPO to keep the defense honest. However, to beat a team like ND on the road, he will have to do something that Speight did not. There will be a few times in the game where he will have to make a play. That play was what was missing against Iowa and OSU in 2016. Regardless of his final stat lines those opportunities to do something justify tagging 5 stars to a recruit must happen. This is the most difficult postion to even project what will happen because it comes down to one individual. The reality is Patterson has to learn a new system and last year may have been wasted as the new offensive staff was incapable of running an offense. Yet the statistics of senior QB's improving their passing statitics greatly over their 3rd year is also quite low. I looked at about 120 QB's who were starters in their 3rd year and only 7% improved their passing rating by more than 10 points. 92% were within that 10 point variation with about half seeing an increase and half seeing a decrease which surprised me. Both QB's have big questions to answer and the one that comes through really sets his team up for a more likely win.
The next comparison is the ND offensive line against the UM front 7 and then reverse the comparison of the UM offensive line verses the ND front 7. I see this as an advantage for ND. For the UM front 7 to make a decisive advantage they have to play like one of the top 3 defenses in the country. They have to generate scores of havoc plays and if Wimbush's throwing motion has been corrected, make him regress by forcing hurried throws. The UM defense is mostly a bunch of former 2nd year players who are now 3rd year players. So there is room for improvement. The Notre Dame defense also has to take a step up. Last year it was good at bending but not breaking. However, the havoc plays must increase. If it is another year of attacking the offense with someone leading the team with 4 sacks that might not cut it. Much of the UM offensive line dysfunction was not losing individual battles but not identifying the proper line call. In theory a top rate Oline coach will fix that part. The ND Oline just has to do what it did last year. I see no reason why they can't, perhaps not at such a prolific rate. The biggest question mark is integrating the new starters, and preventing UM front 7 from looking like a top 3 defense but just a top 10. If they do that they have gone a long way towards winning. The UM offensive line has the largest question marks as it appears that neither starter will be a natural tackle. The Oline has to fix the line call problems and keep the havoc rate low. This is a big key. UM tackles may be stiff. But someone either through blizing or a DE stepping up as to take advantage. Last year ND did not have the DE's to make bum tackles pay. Whoever wins this battle stacks the odds for their team.
I see both secondaries as being very similiar. The corners were great in pass protection and the safties were iffy in not being safe. I do not know the ND corners very well. I do know that UM's starting pair only allowed 22 catches all year. Presuming that that the other 9 games were dogs, even if all the catches occurred against PSU, OSU, Wisc, and SC, that is still only 5.5 catches from the X and Y receivers per game. I will call it a wash as both sides have athletic but unproven receivers who have to show big numbers over a season before I call them stars. If you want to point out the LSU game I will point out the Tarik Black TD catch in week one last year. So each sides corners have to prove it. The corners that do the job mean the other offenses options are limited. Ditto for the safties as the duo that cut down the most on mistakes wins.
The biggest advantage I see for UM is RB. It is mitigated some because Wimbush is such a dynamic runner. For those who say RB's are no longer important, how come offensive coordinators do not ditch them for empty backfields? UM has 2K of total offense returning from the RB position. They ran for 125 yards at a 5.5 ypa clip against an OSU defense when RPO was an
option. It looks like Tony Jones is the 1st team RB. In my accounting including the surprise NFL jump, ND is down four of their five top RB's from last years projected 2018 depth chart. Tony Jones was probably the 3rd best case and someone you would only want to play no more than 25 snaps. He is not going to run away from anyone, make anyone miss, but he will read the blitz pickup. My guess is any frosh or converted athlete moved over to generate depth is not going to be ready
for blitz pickup in week one. I expect UM defense not only to force Wimbush to throw but force Wimbush to read option to Jones. UM will depend on Jones or whoever is the RB to not be capable of making plays or if there is a breakdown take it to the house. If a RB steps up and takes on this role I find it very difficult for UM to win. Likewise UM RB's have to replicate what they did against OSU as Patterson is the same athlete that O'Korn is. If they can run for 5.5 ypa, that will
make life easier in the passing game.
Next are the blocky catchy guys. Everyone knows that Jim Harbaugh loves blocky catchy guys as they generate all sorts of mismatches. I think the corners on both sides are going to be pretty good. If the X and Y receivers are being blanketed than it is up to slots or in the case of UM win with their two and three tight end sets. Harbaugh will definitely use 4 and the slot receiver is the most experienced. TE's are great because if a QB is flustered or errant they have huge catch radius's. It is a given that UM will probably throw at their TE's maybe a dozen times. The interesting thing for me is does Kelly go back to his old roots. ND used to be TE U. But for some reason perhaps because ND spread has become more "spread and shred" the TE does not get as many looks. Since both sides saefties were weak last year, he who utilizes the TE, Hback, FB, and slots wins. A two or three TE set is a great way to mess with a a nickel or dime package as you have poor safeties having to cover six foot eight jumping machines. Alize Mack has the great SPARC score. Someone has to use him. The team that utilizes best the other odds & ends gets an advantage.
The last comparison is the coaches. I see Brian Kelly as in a comfortable situation. If ND loses this game he will not be second guessed. ND has a manageable schedule and a 10-2 outcome probably satisfies the masses. Harbaugh has a monkey on his back. Every pundit is saying he is overrated, the 7th best coach in the Big10, can't win games, can't figure out QB's, on to infinity. He in my opinion not that he needs the motivation is going to be more zeroed in on winning this game at this moment. I think Long verses Brown is a great matchup. Where there could be tactical issues is ND's D'coordinator is in his first game. Harbaugh offenses always have smoke & mirrors that are more effective week one before teams adjust. Harbaugh or whoever is the Ocoordinator must win this matchup else it is a long night. If there are not a few RPS moments than I think it will be tough on UM.
So all things being equal here are the biggest variance in order. Wimbush must improve, UM defense must be top 3, ND must discover a RB, UM must discover 2 tackles, ND needs a 10 sack guy, Patterson must not be a dog, ND needs more blocky catchy guys, Harbaugh must win RPS, ND Dcoordinator must not make the moment bigger than him. I guess I could have said that but I am not a twitter guy.
