How much will being a 5th seed at best

[Quix0te]

I don't know where you are getting this prediction from. The G5 champ will be much higher. The 12th seed will be like a #3 SEC/BUG/ACC team that still has a decent chance.

Look at the 2023 final rankings. The #12 berth in the CFP would have gone to #25 Liberty.

2024 College Football Rankings - ESPN

Find the 2024 NCAAF rankings on ESPN, including the Coaches and AP poll for the top 25 NCAAF teams.

www.espn.com

 

[melstew]

Garbage.

It is only human to reject what is just a little too complex for us to understand. Just keep trying, and someday I bet you'll figure out why a 5 seed is not as good as 1-4 seed. For now though, maybe just respond with a "yawn" to pretend like you do understand.

 

[mbd11]

Look at the 2023 final rankings. The #12 berth in the CFP would have gone to #25 Liberty.

2024 College Football Rankings - ESPN

Find the 2024 NCAAF rankings on ESPN, including the Coaches and AP poll for the top 25 NCAAF teams.

www.espn.com

I could see a team like Memphis out of the AAC going 13-0 and beating out the Big 12 champ, if they were like 9-4 or 10-3. Then Memphis would get the 4 seed and the Big 12 champ would probably be #12. Most years it'll probably be like last year would've been, though.

 

[Quix0te]

I could see a team like Memphis out of the AAC going 13-0 and beating out the Big 12 champ, if they were like 9-4 or 10-3. Then Memphis would get the 4 seed and the Big 12 champ would probably be #12. Most years it'll probably be like last year would've been, though.

Yep, that could certainly happen. Another example is that powerful Cincinnati team a couple of years ago back when they were in the AAC.

 

[4-4-3]

I think it was the best deal available and the 5 seed is a nice spot with some advantages. But here are the disadvantages:
(1) ND must win its 13th game.
no other team must win (as a prerequisite) its 13th game. Any one comparing game 13's should consider conference championship is not a knockout game, playi in round of tournament is a knockout game.
(2) ND is the only team that will always have to win 4 straight weeks.
(3) ND will always have to play a team coming off a bye in 2nd week.
It's not horrible, and pretty good all things considered, but definitely a disadvantage to be a top 4 team without a top 4 seed.

Good points.

 

[tbonesays]

Look at the 2023 final rankings. The #12 berth in the CFP would have gone to #25 Liberty.

2024 College Football Rankings - ESPN

Find the 2024 NCAAF rankings on ESPN, including the Coaches and AP poll for the top 25 NCAAF teams.

www.espn.com

I could see a team like Memphis out of the AAC going 13-0 and beating out the Big 12 champ, if they were like 9-4 or 10-3. Then Memphis would get the 4 seed and the Big 12 champ would probably be #12. Most years it'll probably be like last year would've been, though.

Well firstly you don't check the final rankings because those are after the playoff. Secondly if you check the week 15/16 rankings for the previous years you will see that 2023 was an outlier. There is usually an 11-1 Memphis-type school that will not get the bottom seed.

 

[Quix0te]

Well firstly you don't check the final rankings because those are after the playoff. Secondly if you check the week 15/16 rankings for the previous years you will see that 2023 was an outlier. There is usually an 11-1 Memphis-type school that will not get the bottom seed.

Well, I did check and here is the top G5 team for 2012 thru 2017. Only once did the Top G5 team beat out any of the P5 champs 2017 when UCF finished ahead of the Pac-12 champ.

2012 - Utah St 16
2013 - Fresno St 27
2014 - Boise St 16
2015 - Navy 18
2016 - Western Michigan 15
2017 - UCF 6

 

[Patrirish]

Not true. Top 4 seeds are only conference champions who won the conference championship game. And they would have played an extra game

It is true,

You’ve conflated two separate statements and ignored the word “all”

 

[Patrirish]

Would those who believe that a 5 seed is more advantages than a 1-4 seed please identify themselves

Failure to list your name will indicate that you agree with me.

 

[mbd11]

Well firstly you don't check the final rankings because those are after the playoff. Secondly if you check the week 15/16 rankings for the previous years you will see that 2023 was an outlier. There is usually an 11-1 Memphis-type school that will not get the bottom seed.

Here are the highest G5 teams in the final CFP rankings (after the CCGs - they don't do one after the bowls) the last 5 years:

2019 - Memphis #17
2020 - Cincinnati #8
2021 - Cincinnati #4
2022 - Tulane #16
2023 - Liberty #23

So 3/5 years they were out of the top 12. And the one team that made the top 12 twice is no longer G5. So personally, I doubt it'll happen that often going forward.

 

[tbonesays]

Well, I did check and here is the top G5 team for 2012 thru 2017. Only once did the Top G5 team beat out any of the P5 champs 2017 when UCF finished ahead of the Pac-12 champ.

2012 - Utah St 16
2013 - Fresno St 27
2014 - Boise St 16
2015 - Navy 18
2016 - Western Michigan 15
2017 - UCF 6

Here are the highest G5 teams in the final CFP rankings (after the CCGs - they don't do one after the bowls) the last 5 years:

2019 - Memphis #17
2020 - Cincinnati #8
2021 - Cincinnati #4
2022 - Tulane #16
2023 - Liberty #23

So 3/5 years they were out of the top 12. And the one team that made the top 12 twice is no longer G5. So personally, I doubt it'll happen that often going forward.

Fair point. Two things to consider, let's use 2019 Memphis as an example.

Now the PC knows that the highest G5 must get in the playoff, whereas before they had the incentive to keep them low. So the PC will be less likely to disrespect a 12-1 Memphis type team.

That Memphis team was #4 in the Colley Matrix. So ND would rather draw a Baylor or Auburn type team that were somehow top 12 in the PC but not top 15 in the power rankings.

 

[mbd11]

Fair point. Two things to consider, let's use 2019 Memphis as an example.

Now the PC knows that the highest G5 must get in the playoff, whereas before they had the incentive to keep them low. So the PC will be less likely to disrespect a 12-1 Memphis type team.

That Memphis team was #4 in the Colley Matrix. So ND would rather draw a Baylor or Auburn type team that were somehow top 12 in the PC but not top 15 in the power rankings.

I think I'd still rather face a 12-1 Memphis than a P4 team ranked in the top 12. And that Memphis team only played 2 games against P5 opponents - they beat a 4-8 Ole Miss team, 15-10, and lost to Penn State in the Cotton Bowl, 53-39.

 

[tbonesays]

I think I'd still rather face a 12-1 Memphis than a P4 team ranked in the top 12. And that Memphis team only played 2 games against P5 opponents - they beat a 4-8 Ole Miss team, 15-10, and lost to Penn State in the Cotton Bowl, 53-39.

It may be true but it would not change the sub-thread. Back to the original premise; it is not a big problem because the 5th seed will usually get a G5 team. You are usually going to be right; the 3 loss LSU team ranked 11th may be better than #12 Memphis. But it is only going to be small difference and nowhere close to getting a 1st round bye.

 

[Quix0te]

It may be true but it would not change the sub-thread. Back to the original premise; it is not a big problem because the 5th seed will usually get a G5 team. You are usually going to be right; the 3 loss LSU team ranked 11th may be better than #12 Memphis. But it is only going to be small difference and nowhere close to getting a 1st round bye.

Insted of using a hypothetical Memphis team, let's use the most recent real world example. The #12 spot in the CFP after the 2023 season would have been 25th ranked Liberty. Looking ahead to the 2024 season, if it finishes as now projected then the #12 spot in the CFP will go to 32-ranked Boise St or 34-ranked Liberty.

College football post-spring Top 25 Power Rankings

How does the Top 25 look following spring practice and another transfer period?

www.espn.com

 

[mbd11]

It may be true but it would not change the sub-thread. Back to the original premise; it is not a big problem because the 5th seed will usually get a G5 team. You are usually going to be right; the 3 loss LSU team ranked 11th may be better than #12 Memphis. But it is only going to be small difference and nowhere close to getting a 1st round bye.

But don't forget we don't have to play a CCG, which is why ND agreed to this deal. So overall, we'll have to win 4 postseason games to win the NC - the same as everyone else.

 

[mrwigglesby21]

Good points.

Hope life has been treating you well 4-4-3. Drop me a line some time: irishwigglesby@gmail.com

 

[tbonesays]

But don't forget we don't have to play a CCG, which is why ND agreed to this deal. So overall, we'll have to win 4 postseason games to win the NC - the same as everyone else.

Except #1 is an optional game. If any 12-0 team drops the CCG, they fall to #5 and then get that 'easy' game against Liberty.

 

[mbd11]

Except #1 is an optional game. If any 12-0 team drops the CCG, they fall to #5 and then get that 'easy' game against Liberty.

They'd still have to win 4 postseason games in a row, though - like everyone else.

 

[Patrirish]

But teams ranked 1-4 only have to play three games to win the NC

 

[Golson5]

But teams ranked 1-4 only have to play three games to win the NC

They play a conference championship game.

16 games for them and us.

 

[tbonesays]

They play a conference championship game.

16 games for them and us.

and they don't have to win the ccg. How many times do we have to point this out?

 

[Quix0te]

Insted of using a hypothetical Memphis team, let's use the most recent real world example. The #12 spot in the CFP this year would have been 25th ranked Liberty.

and they don't have to win the ccg. How many times do we have to point this out?

If they don't win their ccg, then they still need to win four games to win the NC. That assumes the conference runner-up gets selected, which is certainly not a done deal for the ACC and Big XII ccg losers. The preseason polls have seven SEC teams and four Big Ten teams ranked ahead of the #2 Big XII team, K State.

 

[Golson5]

and they don't have to win the ccg. How many times do we have to point this out?

Then they aren't a top 4 seed and will have to play 17 games....and still win 4 games....

How many times do I have to point that out.....

Think about it

 

[Patrirish]

They play a conference championship game.

16 games for them and us.

Are you positive that UConn and UMass play championship games ?

 

[Golson5]

Are you positive that UConn and UMass play championship games ?

What.... 🤣🤣

 

[Patrirish]

What.... 🤣🤣

What was the result of the last game that Notre Dame played against UConn ?

 

[Golson5]

What was the result of the last game that Notre Dame played against UConn ?

What....🤣

 

[Patrirish]

What....🤣

What was the result of the last game that Notre Dame played against UConn

 

[Golson5]

What was the result of the last game that Notre Dame played against UConn

What.....🤣

 

[4-4-3]

Hope life has been treating you well 4-4-3. Drop me a line some time: irishwigglesby@gmail.com

I will do that. I'm holding serve. Thanks for asking.

 

[buckey]

Who cares. If we are good we will be in playoffs every year

 

[rrdd2021]

CF is changing constantly and ND choosing to remain independent will only hurt them down the road when all the other CF powers will be part of a conference - specifically the massive B1G and SEC conferences. There's already the notion on other boards that ND has their noses up in the air by refusing to stay out of a conference.....just a bad scene for ND

 

[Golson5]

CF is changing constantly and ND choosing to remain independent will only hurt them down the road when all the other CF powers will be part of a conference - specifically the massive B1G and SEC conferences. There's already the notion on other boards that ND has their noses up in the air by refusing to stay out of a conference.....just a bad scene for ND

Just a completely wrong opinion....

 

[sjb75]

CF is changing constantly and ND choosing to remain independent will only hurt them down the road when all the other CF powers will be part of a conference - specifically the massive B1G and SEC conferences. There's already the notion on other boards that ND has their noses up in the air by refusing to stay out of a conference.....just a bad scene for ND

Bullshit.

 

[Holycrossover3]

ssue

That’s why Notre Dame is at a disadvantage.

If a Notre Dame team went 12-0, or 11-1 they’d probably be the 5th seed even if the top four teams had records of 9-4 or even 8-5.

As the season wears on and injuries are more prevalent, getting a bye is a significant advantage.

Why should a team that’s 9-4 or 8-5 or 10-3 be seeded lower than an 12-0 or 11-1 ND team ?

If ND is 12-0, we are getting a bye during the conference title weekend. If we’re the 5 seed, we play at home vs the 12 seed as our 13th game, I would imagine that’s an easier game compared to a neutral site conference title game of either the ACC, BIG or SEC.

What if ND lost the conference title game of any of the conferences? Then they actually do need to play an “extra game.”

The only teams that may have to play an extra game to win a title would be one who plays in a conference title game and loses. Sounds like a disadvantage to me.

 

[Quix0te]

If ND is 12-0, we are getting a bye during the conference title weekend. If we’re the 5 seed, we play at home vs the 12 seed as our 13th game, I would imagine that’s an easier game compared to a neutral site conference title game of either the ACC, BIG or SEC.

What if ND lost the conference title game of any of the conferences? Then they actually do need to play an “extra game.”

The only teams that may have to play an extra game to win a title would be one who plays in a conference title game and loses. Sounds like a disadvantage to me.

Right. This squealing about an "independence penalty" is nonsense. It's a square deal that Swarbrick got for ND. A conference champion has to win and then win another three to get the NC. A conference loser - other than Big Ten or SEC - probably won't get in the playoff and if they do, they'll need to win four games to win it all. There is no "independence penalty." It is actually an "independence advantage."

 

[sjb75]

Right. This squealing about an "independence penalty" is nonsense. It's a square deal that Swarbrick got for ND. A conference champion has to win and then win another three to get the NC. A conference loser - other than Big Ten or SEC - probably won't get in the playoff and if they do, they'll need to win four games to win it all. There is no "independence penalty." It is actually an "independence advantage."

Would Iowa have gotten in last season?

 

[Quix0te]

Would Iowa have gotten in last season?

Grown-ups are discussing this issue here. Please stifle.

 

[sjb75]

Right. This squealing about an "independence penalty" is nonsense. It's a square deal that Swarbrick got for ND. A conference champion has to win and then win another three to get the NC. A conference loser - other than Big Ten or SEC - probably won't get in the playoff and if they do, they'll need to win four games to win it all. There is no "independence penalty." It is actually an "independence advantage."

2023 Big 10 conference loser Iowa, IMO, would not have made the 12 team playoff last season.

 

[Golson5]

2023 Big 10 conference loser Iowa, IMO, would not have made the 12 team playoff last season.

It's a dumb comment by you though because they wouldn't have been in the conf champ game in the new format. Would have been Michigan OSU and both would have made it