That’s irrelevant !
All teams in the playoffs will not necessarily have played in conference championship games, Don’t forget that it’s possible for an 8-5 team to be the conference champion, ditto 9-4 and 10-3, and that team would get a bye.
How much will being a 5th seed at best
- Thread starter Patrirish
- Start date
All teams in the playoffs will not necessarily have played in conference championship games, Don’t forget that it’s possible for an 8-5 team to be the conference champion, ditto 9-4 and 10-3, and that team would get a bye.
So what.
Notre Dame does not have to play a 13th game. Other teams do.
I’m done with this.
Go argue with someone else.
You can disagree all you want, I’m the one who crafted the thread, ergo, I know what the thinking behind the title is.
We’re talking about the playoffs not the regular season, hence getting a bye puts a team at a significant advantage in the CFP. Have someone who understands the topic explain that to you.
Let me try and explain this to you in very simple terms, terms you might be able to understand
Have you ever seen a seeding chart?
Do you understand how they’re structured
Let’s forget the bye factor for a second.
In a 16 or 8 team playoff does the # 1 or # 2 team have an advantage versus higher ranked teams ?
YES or NO ?
Not true. Top 4 seeds are only conference champions who won the conference championship game. And they would have played an extra game
I’m new here but PatIrish seems a bit unhinged…curious what his response will be here? Surely to deflect back to seeding advantages without acknowledging this fact.
I would rather be seeded #1-2-3-4 and have a bye week, then play the lowest seeded team. But, being the 5th seed with an additional week of rest before our first playoff game is a small price to pay for our continued independence.
Like I have said before, Jack Swarbick brokered a damn good deal, IMO.
If some people disagree, wonderful.
You make an interesting point.
Even in this current phase of ND having usually only THREE TOUGH GAMES a year -- give or take -- unless it wins at least two of them, it probably doesn't have a particularly HIGH ODDS playoff team, let alone a NATIONAL CHAMPION CONTENDER. And then it still has to win all of those playoff games.
It was MUCH EASIER for ND to win an NC in Ara's era. And at a time when ND -- POUND FOR POUND -- had better teams relative to the other elite programs, something it still hasn't been able to achieve consistently -- if at all -- since the early 90's.
From 64 through 70, the three tough teams it faced -- NC contenders in their own right -- were MSU, Purdue and USC. The one year ND dispatched all 3, it won the NC. And it got the MacArthur Trophy in 64 for ALMOST doing it but for that last minute or so against USC.
Then from 71 through 74, ND only had to beat USC -- as MSU and Purdue had lost a step -- plus the bowl opponent, and the one year it did that, it won the NC.
These days, 3 tough in-season games and 4 playoff games = 7 potential hiccups, though I'm, of course, not suggesting ND will hiccup them all. Far from it. But that's still quite a GAMUT and for the last 4, there are no MULLIGANS. Even as, as I've already mentioned, the more poorly you navigate the first 3, the less likely you have the kind of team that can win the 4 that stand between ND and an NC.
Extremely TALL ORDER in my opinion regardless of seeding or however else you view it.
Actually, the #5 slot in the playoff is a pretty soft spot. Your first game will be at home vs #12, which will almost certainly be a G5 conference champion that fought and won a conference championship game while ND was resting. The next game against #4 will probably be the ACC champion, and if FSU and Clemson leave the ACC that will be another cupcake.
Either way, it's better than playing the champ of the Big Ten or SEC. And another thing, if ND is #5 they won't be facing the runner-up of the Big Ten or SEC in the first or second round. Those runner-ups will almost certainly be #6, 7 or 8.
Slot #5 will be a very good place to be, far better than #6. The #6 team will be playing # 11, and that will be one of the top dozen ranked teams in the nation, something like a third place team from the Big Ten or SEC or equivalent. But #12 will be a lowly G5 conference champ like James Madison or Liberty, and might not be ranked in the top 25 at all.
So we definitely have an incentive to go undefeated - so we can land that #5 spot that does have an easier path.
As far as Big 12 vs ACC, I think the new Big 12 has more depth. But the ACC's top teams are usually better (Clemson, FSU).
There is a HUGE difference between 5 and 6. The #5 first round will be playing a G5 champ such as Marshall or Liberty. The #6 first round will be playing a a third or fourth place team from the Big Ten or SEC, someone like Penn St, Oregon, Texas or Oklahoma.
The #5 second round will be playing the weakest P4 champ, probably the Big XII. Current favorites are Kansas St and Utah. The #6 second round will be playing the someone like Ohio St, Georgia or FSU.
5 is better than 6 but the 5 or 6 seed will be very good for us. I'm not concerned at all about some teams you mentioned like ped state. Oklahoma won't even be in the mix.
Playing the acc or big12 in the 2nd rd is a very good spot for us
Getting a 5 or 6 seed is where we want to be
Penn State and Oklahoma were merely examples. You could just as easily substitute Bama, Michigan, LSU or Clemson. It is a world of difference than playing the top-ranked G5 champ, of which there are none in the current pre-season polls. The top two that I could find are #29 Boise St and #33 Air Force.
Like I said I'm good with getting a5 or 6 seed playing the acc champ or big12 champ in the 2nd round. I'd welcome a LSU up to south bend in mid December. Good luck
5 or 6c seed is a very good spot for us
ssue
If a Notre Dame team went 12-0, or 11-1 they’d probably be the 5th seed even if the top four teams had records of 9-4 or even 8-5.
As the season wears on and injuries are more prevalent, getting a bye is a significant advantage.
Why should a team that’s 9-4 or 8-5 or 10-3 be seeded lower than an 12-0 or 11-1 ND team ?
That’s why Notre Dame is at a disadvantage.
If a Notre Dame team went 12-0, or 11-1 they’d probably be the 5th seed even if the top four teams had records of 9-4 or even 8-5.
As the season wears on and injuries are more prevalent, getting a bye is a significant advantage.
Why should a team that’s 9-4 or 8-5 or 10-3 be seeded lower than an 12-0 or 11-1 ND team ?
Because 9-4 in the Big Ten or SEC is far more difficult than 11-1 with a schedule of two service academies, two MAC schools and five ACC cupcakes. As an example, this year Purdue plays Notre Dame, Oregon State, Oregon, Nebraska, Wisconsin, Ohio State, Penn State and Michigan State. That's four teams ranked in the top twelve and six in the top 25.
Give us teams with weaker schedules like Ped state too
And don't use nebraska and Michigan state as examples of tough games. They aren't
Instead of cherry-picking teams, let's look at the big picture. This link ranks the strength-of-schedule for all 134 FBS schools. ND and Penn State are essentially tied, ND is # 47 and PS is # 49.
For the SEC, 14 of 16 have tougher schedules than ND. For the Big Ten, 12 of 18 have tougher schedules than ND.
2024 Strength of Schedule For All 134 FBS College Football Teams | College Football Network
The season is almost here, and we've updated our college football strength of schedule for the 2024 season. The results at the top are eye-opening.
collegefootballnetwork.com
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Proper punctuation obviously another thing you're not particularly adept at I see.
A bit ? Stick around, the entertainment level is pretty good.
No they are not. They will have played the same number of games as the #1 through #4 seeds. ND gets their bye when others are playing conference championship games.
Because he likely accidentally hit the period instead of the comma?
In the sense you're looking at it, I would agree with you. But at the same time, I don't see it as a NEAT BINARY as I believe there are other ways of viewing this.
For instance, a 12-0 or 11-1 ND team could in fact be the best team in the country, and as such it doesn't matter that much if it has to play an extra game, particuarly if it then opens the door to it playing teams with inferior records. As with the undefeated 88 team and the one-loss 77 team, it was clear at a certain point during both seasons that ND was the best team in the country and merely had to hold serve each succeeding week. In other words, some teams simply won't be stopped, extra game or not.
On the other hand, getting to the final rounds against teams with inferior records may not be the advantage that it might appear to be when we're merely positing those final W/L records as abstractions. Because as QuixOte has pointed out, those theoretical 9-4 and/or 8-5 teams may IN REALITY turn out to be just as good -- or even better than -- that 12-0 or 11-1 ND team which has earned its record mainly by virtue of playing weaker competition.
What matters more to me is how ND ACTUALLY PERFORMS against its in-season opponents. If -- in line with GIVEN MEASURABLE POWER DIFFERENTIALS -- it's winning the way it should, then that's where I, personally, would be looking for advantages. Records, though rightfully used as admissions criteria to the playoffs, can, taken alone, be deceiving as respects a team's ACTUAL POWER. What's needed to go all the way is not only a spotless or near spotless record but also the actual physical superiority TO BEAT THE BETTER TEAMS at whatever point along the way you encounter them, while at the same time showing up against EVERY TEAM THAT ON PAPER YOU SHOULD BEAT.
Accordingly, I'm not that concerned with a 12-0 or 11-1 ND team that has also DOMINATED where it should; won the close ones when it should or when the odds weren't in its favor; and prevalied on days it wasn't at its best -- being seeded 5th. Does that seeding look like a disadvantage on paper? Yes. Does it require an extra hurdle? Yes. Is it in fact an ACTUAL LIABILITY? NOT NECESSARILY.
Again, in the end, you have to be capable of beating any team at any time, especially if you don't have to play a conference game to be eligible to make the playoffs in the first place. In fact, that's why this 5th seed arrangement may have been imposed on ND -- i.e. for not having to face THE CONFERENCE GAME HURDLE. And if so, that to me would not seem unfair.
My concern, as stated in my previous post, is not seeding but rather ND ACTUALLY MAKING IT to the playoffs. A&M, FSU and USC could all wind up ranked teams, while Louisville always plays ND tough and Miami can always surprise. One hiccup, ND should be okay. Two? Possibly. Thing is, the ENTIRE SEASON is a one big playoff, and to win an NC you have to have a team that ON PAPER can win every game. Does ND have that kind of team?
I truly don't know.
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Another thing, there seems to be a consensus here that ND needs to finish in the top five to get that #5 slot. Actually, if you study the dynamics of the CFP selection, ND could be ranked #5 and end up the #7 seed in the playoff. If Georgia is ranked #1 and Ohio State is ranked #2 and both lose their CCGs, we could have a scenario where Georgia is the #5 seed, OSU the #6 seed and ND drops to #7.
I think it was the best deal available and the 5 seed is a nice spot with some advantages. But here are the disadvantages:
(1) ND must win its 13th game.
no other team must win (as a prerequisite) its 13th game. Any one comparing game 13's should consider conference championship is not a knockout game, playi in round of tournament is a knockout game.
(2) ND is the only team that will always have to win 4 straight weeks.
(3) ND will always have to play a team coming off a bye in 2nd week.
It's not horrible, and pretty good all things considered, but definitely a disadvantage to be a top 4 team without a top 4 seed.
(1) ND must win its 13th game.
no other team must win (as a prerequisite) its 13th game. Any one comparing game 13's should consider conference championship is not a knockout game, playi in round of tournament is a knockout game.
(2) ND is the only team that will always have to win 4 straight weeks.
(3) ND will always have to play a team coming off a bye in 2nd week.
It's not horrible, and pretty good all things considered, but definitely a disadvantage to be a top 4 team without a top 4 seed.
1. You said no other team must win it's 13th game. That isn't true. A team who is playing in the Conf champ who is a fringe playoff team or on the outside must win its 13th game. Also any team in the playoff who didn't play in their CCG also must win their 13th game
2. Yes ND is the only team that will always have to win 4 straight weeks but the amount of total games will be the same or 1 less than any Championship team
3. Yes we will have to play a team coming off a Bye but it will be game 14 for each team
I think you misunderstand what I mean by prerequisite. By that I mean something required as a precondition. A prerequisite is something you know must happen ahead of time. No other team will always have to win its 13th game to advance. A 12-0 Auburn team that loses game 13 will make playoffs. An 11-1 Buckeye team can lose game 13 and make playoffs. A 10-2 Clemson team can lose the ACC championship game and maybe get the 11 seed. We don't get to keep playing, no matter how good our body of work, if we lose game 13, others do if their overall resume warrants.
I am not saying it's a bad deal, but knowing you have to play in the round of 16 is not the same as paying in a conference championship game that you may be able to lose and still make playoffs.
I don't know where you are getting this prediction from. The G5 champ will be much higher. The 12th seed will be like a #3 SEC/BUG/ACC team that still has a decent chance.
Okay you are getting it from the wrong end.
