First Playoff Rankings - Prediction

[TeddyOH]

The playoff committee releases its first weekly poll after games this weekend. Pretty important ranking for our hopes toward a possible playoff spot. I thought it would be interesting to think about where we might end up, assuming we take care of business at Temple this weekend.

First, I would like to remind everyone of how the playoff committee ranked us last season when the first rankings came out, we were 6-1 coming off of a close loss at Florida State. The AP poll had is ranked #6. We all thought all we had to do was keep winning and we be in the playoffs. However, the playoff committee ranked #10. What that showed us was that the playoff committee didn't really value a loss to a high ranked opponent. In essence, we didn't really have any quality wins to leapfrog the nine teams ahead of us.

So right now we are ranked #9. No way we leapfrog any of the undefeated teams ahead of us, so #7 is our ceiling. No way we leapfrog Alabama. Stanford is essentially equivalent to us right now, and we play them, so it doesn't really matter but I think we probably won't leapfrog them.

So the big question is will anyone right behind us leapfrog us? I think there's a really good chance that both undefeated Iowa and undefeated Oklahoma State will jump us. I also think Florida with a very quality win against Ole Miss will leapfrog us.

So all things considered, I think we will probably end up ranked #11 or #12 in the initial playoff rankings.

What does that mean for our chances? There is just too much football still to be played. However, I think it is clear that any undefeated team will be ahead of us at the end. Any 1-loss conference champion will be ahead of us as well. Unfortunately, a 1-loss Clemson will always stay ahead of us too.

 

[zuskie]

Good point. I forgot about the "no points for quality loss" aspect. Yeah, at this point, I expect several teams to jump us relative to AP poll.

 

[lyonhawk]

I don't think all of that is right. A 1-loss Clemson could certainly be behind us if that loss is to FSU. The head to head is not the be-all, end-all. All the circumstances of that loss make it much closer than simply they beat us. If they lose to FSU and then don't even get to play in the ACCCG, and we win out our overall body of work will trump the 2 pt loss at Clemson.

Also, we could easily be ahead of a 1-loss Big 12 or Big 10 champ as well. Not saying that's guaranteed, but it's a distinct possibility. One of the reasons they got left out last year is a weak OOC schedule, and they didn't do much to change that this year.

 

[Nocalirish]

Iowa has not beaten anyone. It is stupid to think they would be ranked over a one loss ND at this stage of the season.
11-1 ND is a playoff lock.

 

[Irishjohn68]

A bad lose by Clemson will put ND ahead of them.

 

[BGI User 348]

As a Prime time Top 25 matchup a BIG win by ND will be seen by all.

Just WIN OUT Baby!!!

 

[mid ohio irish]

Any late season loss will greatly diminish the Play Off chances of any team. i.e. Clemson loses to Fla. State, they will most likely be eliminated from serious consideration as they will be viewed "as not playing their best ball. The same holds true with the loser of the ND-Stanford game, committee does not/will not take a late season loser to the playoff.

 

[NDSMC78]

Any late season loss will greatly diminish the Play Off chances of any team. i.e. Clemson loses to Fla. State, they will most likely be eliminated from serious consideration as they will be viewed "as not playing their best ball. The same holds true with the loser of the ND-Stanford game, committee does not/will not take a late season loser to the playoff.

The loser of he ND/Stanford game will also have two losses (if not more), which will kill any playoff hopes they have.

 

[NDEwing18]

Any late season loss will greatly diminish the Play Off chances of any team. i.e. Clemson loses to Fla. State, they will most likely be eliminated from serious consideration as they will be viewed "as not playing their best ball. The same holds true with the loser of the ND-Stanford game, committee does not/will not take a late season loser to the playoff.

I don't think we can necessarily assume that the committee is going to bounce a team as a result of a late loss because they're not "playing their best ball". You really would have to factor in (1) who the team lost to, and (2) how the team lost.

 

[perseverare]

^ I thought the criteria was 'good wins' not losses?
I think the idea of eliminating a team where it is off an injury also seems to disregard a season long effort.

 

[BigFellaFan]

This is true!

 

[FightingIrish44]

^ I thought the criteria was 'good wins' not losses?
I think the idea of eliminating a team where it is off an injury also seems to disregard a season long effort.

Is this something that people have inferred because of last year, or did the committee come out and say it? I keep seeing people say that. If that's true, then this system is a joke.

 

[perseverare]

something read here, TOS and heard discussed, but an official statement from the committee, I do not know if that is the origin. good question.

and let's face it we aren't going to be able to discuss it on this board. Any blurbs will be limited recruiting topics.