ESPN's game by game predictions are now viewable. Interestingly, Notre Dame is favored to win each game, by no less than 58%. For fun, I took the data and ran simulations using Excel to determine the expected outcome for the 2024 season:
ESPN's FPI Predictions Released
- Thread starter deadmanramsey
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Yes, and about just a 10% chance of only 8 wins or less. The floor is extremely high this season.
Yes. That is what happens when a good team faces a relatively easy schedule.
I don’t consider Notre Dame a favorite in game 1.ESPN's game by game predictions are now viewable. Interestingly, Notre Dame is favored to win each game, by no less than 58%. For fun, I took the data and ran simulations using Excel to determine the expected outcome for the 2024 season:
Not saying ND is a big underdog; however, again, not a favorite IMO.
FPI shows you how your season will likely play out from a pure W-L record by simulating thousands of regular season games.
If you took Georgia, and gave them NDs schedule they would probably have 120% chance of going undefeated lol
If you want to see where Notre Dame's program stands in relation to all others heading into 2024 look up the post-spring SP+ projections from a few months ago. I made a post about it. NDs SP+ projection is 10th .. well behind the teams in the top 5.
If you took Georgia, and gave them NDs schedule they would probably have 120% chance of going undefeated lol
If you want to see where Notre Dame's program stands in relation to all others heading into 2024 look up the post-spring SP+ projections from a few months ago. I made a post about it. NDs SP+ projection is 10th .. well behind the teams in the top 5.
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Vegas has TA&M as a 1 point favorite. Despite all of their roster attrition and turnover with a freshly green coach, its a damn shame that ND is an underdog as of right now.
I do. It would be an upset if texas am wins that game. We should win.
They are the only 2 teams that if they lost, it's an upset? Interesting
I watched OSU all last year and watched ND play against them. There wasn't much of a difference at all
Cool. 10 win Louisville? Yeah me too
Did you happen to see Texas Am play last year? Rumor has it they lost 6 games
Or did you watch them in 2022? Another rumor has them losing 7 games that year
They've won 12 games the last 2 years. We've won 19
Upset if we lose
I can not remember a Notre Dame OL with as many question marks as this one. And nothing concerns me more than an inexperienced OL with question marks in a tough road opener.
If you consider TAM winning at home over Notre Dame to be a CFB upset, great.
I do not.
I'm trying to figure out why it wouldn't be considered an upset.
So I went to something most people use when examining a team, recent success. They don't have it, we do.
Then I'd say what each team has coming back from the previous years, we are better there too.
So your logic doesn't make sense
I can, 2021. Not long ago
I see 2 question marks on the OL. Left and right tackle.
But I also see question marks with Texas Am OL as well. It's not like they have NDs 17 OL
Damn Golson, the interior line play last season was average at the very best.
Yet now, it’s not a question, and good to go.
Whatever:
The interior OL play was the best the last 3 games of the year. I wonder why...
Schrauth is better than Rocco, upgrade
Craig is better than Correll (which is why Zeke had to bounce), upgrade
Whoever wins the job between Rocco and Coogan, is a year older with more experience, upgrade
We upgraded the interior of the OL in all 3 spots. Not worried about the interior
The OL concerns the hell out of me going into game 1. If you aren’t concerned so be it.
Interesting. I thought ND lost two tackles, a QB, and a RB to the NFL, while also bringing in a freshly green OC to boot.
But you're right, it's a shame. Hopefully MF can do the unexpected.
I think your concern about our O line is complexly justified. Especially because Elko will bring the heat. I think Denbrock will have answers in the form of rollouts, short passes, keeping a rb in as blocker, etc
If Parker was our o coach, we lose this game
I think Golson is spot on that you are short changing our team by not thinking we are similar to Georgia or OSU. We played both teams tough Very tough. Against Georgia in those games we needed a QB. Now we have one.
Against OSU, we needed a first down from Hartman and a wise head coach. Hartman did not make the same mistake against Duke and I feel Freeman learned his lesson also
ND is not as far off from these teams as some think. ND was right there in both of those Georgia and Ohio State games.
"Yes. That is what happens when a good team faces a relatively easy schedule."
That was Michigan's formula last year (well, last 2 years) -- correct?
Close. Michigan was a great team last year. And had to get by top five opponents Ohio State and Bama before playing undefeated Washington in the NC game. But you are correct that the overall regular season schedule was not that challenging.
It's not horrible. It's a solid schedule, not great by any means but certainly solid
They play
10 FSU
20 TX Am
23 USC
26 Louisville
4 top 26 teams and no FCS teams. Solid schedule. Definitely not elite but definitely not horrible either
It is on the weaker side. No FCS teams, but three cupcakes. An elite schedule would be something like Florida's, with 8 preseason top 25 teams lined up.
Lots of unknowns going into the game. People are betting that being on the road may rattle the Irish in their first game of the season.
