I don't think anyone would be shocked if MF failed at ND. Why would you be?? What is it about MF, that is reality-based, outside of his handsome face, beaming smile and genuinely charismatic and youthful demeanor and mannerisms, that would ever mark him out for greatness??? Nothing!
So it's entirely possible that he will become one of the great coaches of all time, that he really will be the next Dabo Swinnery, where he got a top HC job he really wasn't qualified for, but in highly improbable fashion ended up having that CEO-coaching knack, which is WAY different than tactical/technical coaching genius.... even though the real reason he got the job was because ND was simply far too smitten to allow him to walk out that door, he nevertheless pulls it off somehow. Dabo has an MBA, and I always figure that played a HUGE role in his success. It's one thing to be a an ambitious, hard-working whippersnapper of a young football coach just looking for a chance to prove himself, but Dabo actually received specific organizational business training. So he knows how to think like a CEO is my point. And presumably is armed with a strong entrepreneurial disposition, and actual training in bringing complicated, multi-layered plans to fruition....
The important thing for MF is that no particular coaching 'genius' is required to be a top HC. They got coordinators for that shit. It's about 'leadership', and having a vision for the program, that sort of thing, as well as enough self-mastery and presence of mind, and caliber of personality to see to it's effective and successful implementation despite all the various adversity and 'noise', to use an economics term, that might distract you or delude you. Which is something he's theoretically quite capable of, in spite of his at times almost unnerving levels of nearly childlike naivety that he seems to evince. And Dabo Swinnery is living proof that you don't need to be, almost don't even want to be, a bonafide coaching badass, in order to be highly effective in that CEO role. There's probably a shit ton of very smart, capable ground-level football coaches that would not distinguish themselves as CEO HCs. It's a different skill set, an organizational skill set, think Dwight Eisenhower vs George Patton
So that's what we can hope for. That MF will thrive as Dabo Swinnery 2.0. But that's not why he was hired. The real reason is that they're in love with MF, and weren't willing to let him go. MF swept Jack Swarbrick, and the rest of the ND hiring/firing brass off their feet. Conceiving of a possible path to glory for MF, like I have, thoughtfully comparing him to Dabo Swinnery, the great fluke coaching success story of all time, is something you do after the fact.... and then you just hope for the best. All the shit you mentioned are the same things Swarbrick told himself, and could be used to rationalize the hire. That's not WHY he was hired....