enough evidence is in on Kelly after 13 years in Division 1. He is a good to very good head coach. He has been an obvious upgrade at ND as compared to prior recent coaches there. But it's also fair to say his record against top opponents is lacking. It's also difficult if not impossible to classify ANY college football head coach to be among the best when they have never won a January 1st (or better) bowl game. 1,3,4,5,5,5 losses in 6 years at ND is....good.
You should charge Coach Kelly rent for the space he is renting between your ears!From TOS:
kelly is 8-17 versus teams ranked in the final AP Poll
2-8 versus teams ranked in the final AP Top 10.
...but we had high ankle sprains , guys cheating, our qb left for fsu.....
We're Music City Bowl champs!!!! Yay!!!!
Kelly has had some very bad luck that should be considered. . He had five starters taken away a few weeks because of cheating scandals . He had his starting QB also involved in cheating and lost for the season . He had 38 injuries to his starters over a two year period . His first year he started late and had very little influence on recruiting that year . He lost his five star backup QB to transfer in second year and then looses his starting QB . His star defensive lineman transfers before the season starts when an unscrupulous coach went after him even though he signed a letter of intent . His star linebacker and corner get injured prior to playing in major bowl . His great linebacker gets called out for having a phoney girl friend before we play Alabama a huge distractionThose stats kind of suck, but they are meaningless without a full comparison to other coaches.
cgvr: You want to troll Kelly, fine. However, I assign you homework. You've got to back it up.
I will anxiously await your results.
- Compile a list of current Power 5 coaches (to keep it relevant)
- Go back up to 6 years at their current school as head coach (for newer coaches, only go back to when they got the job)
- List the following data which you proposed in the OP for each coach:
- Number of seasons (up to 6)
- Record against teams in the final AP poll (and percentage to compare newer coaches)
- Record against teams in the final AP top-10 (and percentage)
- Record in BCS bowls or playoffs only
My guess is that a very small handful of coaches will approach the volume of meaningful games Kelly has, which indicates that we are a perennial top team since he arrived. Among the lesser tenured coaches, I'll bet that a few have better percentages than Kelly, but it hasn't been sustained. I also guess that a handful of coaches will beat Kelly in Bowls, which points out that maybe Kelly isn't the best coach in the NCAA. Duh.
However, he is a great coach. Don't forget, he is also a perfect fit for the intricacies of Notre Dame. IMHO... Saban, Meyer, and Dantonio are the only better coaches out there. Saban would never make it at ND due to the constraints of admissions, academics and the media. He's won 4 titles at Bama and still gets pissed at media questions! Meyer already turned down his opportunity so give it up there. Dantonio wouldn't leave MSU for ND. I also really like Patterson, but really don't think his program would adjust to ND. I'd rather keep Kelly.
Who else you want??? You wanna roll the dice on a young, unproven coach? Didn't work out for Davie. You wanna try a legacy with NFL chops? Charlie Weis. You wanna hire a proven winner at a Power 5 conference with some academic credentials? See Willingham. ND needs a PROGRAM COACH. You need someone with a long history as a head coach who knows how to implement his program. Kelly is the man for the job.
The most important thing right now is recruiting. College football is ALL about the athletes. Continuity of Kelly and his staff is key here, and we are doing a pretty good job every year. A close 2nd is player development. With a couple exceptions, Kelly's staff has done a good job developing players. We're at the point where we have the talent base. Every year, we are in contention. We just need to have a few breaks to get over the top. And I'm not talking about broken ankles and knees!
Those stats kind of suck, but they are meaningless without a full comparison to other coaches.
cgvr: You want to troll Kelly, fine. However, I assign you homework. You've got to back it up.
I will anxiously await your results.
- Compile a list of current Power 5 coaches (to keep it relevant)
- Go back up to 6 years at their current school as head coach (for newer coaches, only go back to when they got the job)
- List the following data which you proposed in the OP for each coach:
- Number of seasons (up to 6)
- Record against teams in the final AP poll (and percentage to compare newer coaches)
- Record against teams in the final AP top-10 (and percentage)
- Record in BCS bowls or playoffs only
My guess is that a very small handful of coaches will approach the volume of meaningful games Kelly has, which indicates that we are a perennial top team since he arrived. Among the lesser tenured coaches, I'll bet that a few have better percentages than Kelly, but it hasn't been sustained. I also guess that a handful of coaches will beat Kelly in Bowls, which points out that maybe Kelly isn't the best coach in the NCAA. Duh.
However, he is a great coach. Don't forget, he is also a perfect fit for the intricacies of Notre Dame. IMHO... Saban, Meyer, and Dantonio are the only better coaches out there. Saban would never make it at ND due to the constraints of admissions, academics and the media. He's won 4 titles at Bama and still gets pissed at media questions! Meyer already turned down his opportunity so give it up there. Dantonio wouldn't leave MSU for ND. I also really like Patterson, but really don't think his program would adjust to ND. I'd rather keep Kelly.
Who else you want??? You wanna roll the dice on a young, unproven coach? Didn't work out for Davie. You wanna try a legacy with NFL chops? Charlie Weis. You wanna hire a proven winner at a Power 5 conference with some academic credentials? See Willingham. ND needs a PROGRAM COACH. You need someone with a long history as a head coach who knows how to implement his program. Kelly is the man for the job.
The most important thing right now is recruiting. College football is ALL about the athletes. Continuity of Kelly and his staff is key here, and we are doing a pretty good job every year. A close 2nd is player development. With a couple exceptions, Kelly's staff has done a good job developing players. We're at the point where we have the talent base. Every year, we are in contention. We just need to have a few breaks to get over the top. And I'm not talking about broken ankles and knees!
Kelly has had some very bad luck that should be considered. . He had five starters taken away a few weeks because of cheating scandals . He had his starting QB also involved in cheating and lost for the season . He had 38 injuries to his starters over a two year period . His first year he started late and had very little influence on recruiting that year . He lost his five star backup QB to transfer in second year and then looses his starting QB . His star defensive lineman transfers before the season starts when an unscrupulous coach went after him even though he signed a letter of intent . His star linebacker and corner get injured prior to playing in major bowl . His great linebacker gets called out for having a phoney girl friend before we play Alabama a huge distraction
I could go on and on Kelly has done remarkably well despite these set backs and the team is improving each season
Facts sting!You should charge Coach Kelly rent for the space he is renting between your ears!
Is your hatred for BK personal? There has to be something to this that goes way beyond ND and football.My research is irrefutable. You may conduct your own.
kelly is averaging 1.4 wins above the prior 20 years to his arrival avg of 7.7 wins per season....
He isn't very good.
yay, music city bowl champs...
Prior to this year's draft kelly (4) is under performing willingham (4.66), davie (4.2) and outperforming weis (3.8) by .2 players selected in the NFL draft per annum. He is almost 3 players per yer below Holtz (6.7).... He is also below ND historic norms.
If he gets 6 players drafted this year he'll jump davie. With 8 he'll jump willingham.
I'm seeing ongoing inconsistency on both sides of the ball. There is zero identity.
The defensive scheme that bvg is still trying to install in year 3 appears worthless....
Facts sting!
Is your hatred for BK personal? There has to be something to this that goes way beyond ND and football.
Never seen someone attack a coach like this. Day in, day out.
Where are you going with this? Shaw has done real well at Stanford. That's not news.From TOS:
"Since 2011, when Shaw started as the head coach at Stanford, his record is 54-14 (.794). In the same time frame, Brian Kelly is 47-18 (.723) (55-23 (.705) overall). Let's compare the two based on their records vs. teams finishing in the Top 25 of the final AP Poll.
2011-2015 vs. final Top 25 teams:
Shaw: 12-11 (.521)
Kelly: 8-14 (.363) (he is 8-17 overall (.320))
vs. final Top 10 teams:
Shaw: 5-5 (.500)
Kelly: 2-8 (.200)
Home vs. Top 25 (Top 10 in parentheses)
Shaw: 7-3 (2-2)
Kelly: 6-3 (2-2)
Away vs. Top 25 (Top 10)
Shaw: 4-6 (2-2)
Kelly: 1-8 (0-4)
Neutral vs. Top 25 (Top 10)
Shaw: 1-2 (1-2)
Kelly: 1-3 (0-2)
vs. unranked in final AP Poll teams:
Shaw: 42-3 (.933) losses on the road to Wash('12), Utah('13), ND('14)
Kelly 39-4 (.910) losses at home to USF('11) & NW('14) and on the road to UM('13) & Pitt('13). He is 47-6 (.885) overall vs. unranked teams after including 2010 losses to UM (home) and Navy (neutral).
So in six years, Kelly has lost twice at home to unranked teams, has not won a major bowl, bats about 1 for 3 versus top competition, and has one win on the road (Okla.-'12) against a team finishing in the Top 25.
Compare that line to Shaw who has not yet lost at home to an unranked team, has won two Rose Bowls (played in two other major bowls), has won over half of his games versus top competition, and has beaten four Top 25 teams on the road."
Where are you going with this? Shaw has done real well at Stanford. That's not news.
But you gave an accurate account of David Shaw.The fact of the matter is that their are posters writing flat out lies in support of the vulgar gnome. Some of those posters also lie about Harbaugh and Shaw's performance. Giving an accurate account of kelly's record is relevant.
Those stats kind of suck, but they are meaningless without a full comparison to other coaches.
cgvr: You want to troll Kelly, fine. However, I assign you homework. You've got to back it up.
I will anxiously await your results.
- Compile a list of current Power 5 coaches (to keep it relevant)
- Go back up to 6 years at their current school as head coach (for newer coaches, only go back to when they got the job)
- List the following data which you proposed in the OP for each coach:
- Number of seasons (up to 6)
- Record against teams in the final AP poll (and percentage to compare newer coaches)
- Record against teams in the final AP top-10 (and percentage)
- Record in BCS bowls or playoffs only
My guess is that a very small handful of coaches will approach the volume of meaningful games Kelly has, which indicates that we are a perennial top team since he arrived. Among the lesser tenured coaches, I'll bet that a few have better percentages than Kelly, but it hasn't been sustained. I also guess that a handful of coaches will beat Kelly in Bowls, which points out that maybe Kelly isn't the best coach in the NCAA. Duh.
However, he is a great coach. Don't forget, he is also a perfect fit for the intricacies of Notre Dame. IMHO... Saban, Meyer, and Dantonio are the only better coaches out there. Saban would never make it at ND due to the constraints of admissions, academics and the media. He's won 4 titles at Bama and still gets pissed at media questions! Meyer already turned down his opportunity so give it up there. Dantonio wouldn't leave MSU for ND. I also really like Patterson, but really don't think his program would adjust to ND. I'd rather keep Kelly.
Who else you want??? You wanna roll the dice on a young, unproven coach? Didn't work out for Davie. You wanna try a legacy with NFL chops? Charlie Weis. You wanna hire a proven winner at a Power 5 conference with some academic credentials? See Willingham. ND needs a PROGRAM COACH. You need someone with a long history as a head coach who knows how to implement his program. Kelly is the man for the job.
The most important thing right now is recruiting. College football is ALL about the athletes. Continuity of Kelly and his staff is key here, and we are doing a pretty good job every year. A close 2nd is player development. With a couple exceptions, Kelly's staff has done a good job developing players. We're at the point where we have the talent base. Every year, we are in contention. We just need to have a few breaks to get over the top. And I'm not talking about broken ankles and knees!
Like it, or not these numbers along with his time at other D1 program are very telling.From TOS:
kelly is 8-17 versus teams ranked in the final AP Poll
2-8 versus teams ranked in the final AP Top 10.
...but we had high ankle sprains , guys cheating, our qb left for fsu.....
We're Music City Bowl champs!!!! Yay!!!!
And how long do you give him.Like it, or not these numbers along with his time at other D1 program are very telling.
Can he turn the corner? Time will tell.
It's not up to me?And how long do you give him.
But you gave an accurate account of David Shaw.
The thing is nobody knows that answer. People can speculate who might do well but nobody really knows.My thoughts on the matter... Kelly just seems like a guy that's good enough to keep you in the fight, but for whatever reason (injuries, transfers, academics, etc.) has just not been able to get ND over that hump of beating elite teams and winning BCS/New Year's Six bowl games. Until he can do so, in my eyes he's just an above average coach. He runs a clean program, is a man of honor, strong leadership, but lacks that "edge" whether it be instilling killer instinct in his players or X and O's that are just so damn hard to stop that it drives the opposing coach bonkers. Or maybe it's a matter of both. Every year I see ND play well for the most part, but are hardly killers/over achievers. Rarely do they blow out teams inferior to them and seem flat against elite opponents with the exception of the 2014 FSU game.
I will however say there's no realistic coach right now that I feel ND can hire and do a better job at this time. You have to continue to watch the younger head coaches at the smaller schools and see what candidates pop up.
Very good question. What is the threshold? I'll tell you what my Dad thinks, since he's the ND man who taught me ND football and was around when ND had its heyday. At the end of 5 years the ND coach should have a .750 win percentage minimum and a national title. That really was a fair standard at one time and I think it still can be, but very few coaches can do it. As we now know ND can't just sell the recruit the mystique/prestige of ND anymore and has to recruit just as hard as anyone else, which has made it more challenging for modern ND coaches to win compared to the 80s and before.The thing is nobody knows that answer. People can speculate who might do well but nobody really knows.
If I had to pick a new coach I would like someone with some fire that gets his troops wound up. That gets the most out of his players in big games. That is the biggest thing lacking under Brian Kelly IMO. Sure the defense sucks and everyone can use better talent but making a player over achieve is not happening.
The draw back is getting a bad coach and losing again.
If we measure success on championships only we are in trouble. If we measure success on being competitive and entertained we need to keep Kelly because he is doing that very well.
Where is the threshold for you?
Good question. The five year mark I was going to put into words a few posts ago so I admire your Dad's thoughts on that.Very good question. What is the threshold? I'll tell you what my Dad thinks, since he's the ND man who taught me ND football and was around when ND had its heyday. At the end of 5 years the ND coach should have a .750 win percentage minimum and a national title. That really was a fair standard at one time and I think it still can be, but very few coaches can do it. As we now know ND can't just sell the recruit the mystique/prestige of ND anymore and has to recruit just as hard as anyone else, which has made it more challenging for modern ND coaches to win compared to the 80s and before.
Getting back to your question, I'll say this: If Kelly DOES NOT win a playoff game or a New Year's Six game by this time next year AND there's young and hot upcoming head coach that Swarbrick likes and is willing to take the job, then you gotta go for it. It's gonna be year 7 for Kelly. Excuses are not gonna fly anymore. So it's not just a matter of what the threshold is, but do you have a BETTER replacement? Yes, impossible to know unless you have trial and error, but that's the AD's job is to identify the best people to lead your athletic programs.
I'm curious. What is your threshold?
From TOS:
"Since 2011, when Shaw started as the head coach at Stanford, his record is 54-14 (.794). In the same time frame, Brian Kelly is 47-18 (.723) (55-23 (.705) overall). Let's compare the two based on their records vs. teams finishing in the Top 25 of the final AP Poll.
2011-2015 vs. final Top 25 teams:
Shaw: 12-11 (.521)
Kelly: 8-14 (.363) (he is 8-17 overall (.320))
vs. final Top 10 teams:
Shaw: 5-5 (.500)
Kelly: 2-8 (.200)
Home vs. Top 25 (Top 10 in parentheses)
Shaw: 7-3 (2-2)
Kelly: 6-3 (2-2)
Away vs. Top 25 (Top 10)
Shaw: 4-6 (2-2)
Kelly: 1-8 (0-4)
Neutral vs. Top 25 (Top 10)
Shaw: 1-2 (1-2)
Kelly: 1-3 (0-2)
vs. unranked in final AP Poll teams:
Shaw: 42-3 (.933) losses on the road to Wash('12), Utah('13), ND('14)
Kelly 39-4 (.910) losses at home to USF('11) & NW('14) and on the road to UM('13) & Pitt('13). He is 47-6 (.885) overall vs. unranked teams after including 2010 losses to UM (home) and Navy (neutral).
So in six years, Kelly has lost twice at home to unranked teams, has not won a major bowl, bats about 1 for 3 versus top competition, and has one win on the road (Okla.-'12) against a team finishing in the Top 25.
Compare that line to Shaw who has not yet lost at home to an unranked team, has won two Rose Bowls (played in two other major bowls), has won over half of his games versus top competition, and has beaten four Top 25 teams on the road."
You make many good points, but when comparing Saban's and Kelly's behavior, past, present or future, remember that they operate in very different environments. At Bama all you have to do is win and hopefully stay off NCAA probation. If you do that, you are untouchable, in a stronger position than the university President, borderline stronger than the Governor. As long as you don't rape or kill somebody they will support and forgive you (they actually may very well forgive you on the rape, we all know she had it coming). You report to nobody, you are answerable to nobody. At ND, like a lot of other places, there is a traditional hierarchy and there is accountability, whether you go 11-1 or 1-11. So Kelly can't just do whatever he wants, say %uck the media, I don't care what you think or what you say. If he reflects badly on the university no amount of winning is going to overcome that.Finally cvgr presents some facts. However, once again he ignored his homework assignment and SELECTIVELY chosen 1 coach to argue his point. I am still waiting for the full analysis of Power5 coaches.
I will freely admit Shaw has a better resume in the time frame above, but he did have this guy named Andrew Luck in his first year, and has been blessed with a 4 year starter in Hogan since then. That kind of stacks the deck a bit! Since arriving, Kelly has gone through Crist (starter injured early), Reese, Golson (then suspended), Reese, Golson (then transferred), Zaire (starter injured early) and Kizer. Due to no fault of his own, Kelly has been absolutely snake-bitten at QB. Do you realize how much you lose when your starter groomed all off-season goes down in week 1 or 2? That happened to Kelly TWICE! My point is that I see no true indicator that Shaw is a better coach than Kelly.
Are you proposing firing Kelly and trying to lure Shaw? If so, good luck.
As to another point above by SDtT. I would agree that my biggest beef with Kelly is his motivational style. We have been HIGHLY exposed to behind the scenes ND football, and I think we all know what he is. Kelly is a CEO. Very business-like. Unfortunately, this is probably not his choosing. The COMPLETELY RIDICULOUS, UNFAIR CHARACTERIZATIONS AND MEDIA COVERAGE in his first couple seasons on the sidelines forced him to take on a careful, reserved public persona. Have you ever seen so much coverage of a coach yelling at a player? When Kelly does it, he's a bad person. When Saban does it, he's a great coach. cgvr still brings it up as a weak "fact" to argue his even weaker point.
I'll say this, a great motivator can absolutely elevate his team win a game they have no business winning. However, they never last long-term. Dabo Sweeney is the flavor of the month. He dances, he hangs out, he's the cool players' coach. That goes off great when you win. When Clemson hits a rough patch, wait and see how well that plays in SC. That's the quickest way to the exit door. Even Holtz's act, whom I consider the best motivational coach I have ever known, grew tired at the end of his time at ND. He had some tricks moving to SC, but it wore out quickly.
I think Kelly has a bright future. Establish a QB (Kizer). Stop worrying about the media (like Saban), and realize they hate you and will criticize you no matter what. Unless you win!!! Saban was the most hated coach in America in 2007 when he fled the Dolphins and joined LSU's arch-rival Alabama. In his first year at Bama, he lost at home to Louisiana-Monroe. Then he decided to say f- it, and did it his way. Kelly should do the same and embrace the hate. Get more fiery and it will spread to his players.
We're 6 years in. We've about to wrap up 4 straight elite recruiting classes. We have a deep depth chart and stability for the next 2 years, without a doubt. I think with just a little self-examination, Kelly will earn his statue outside a stadium gate in the next 4 years.
Seems like we have similar thresholds. I like your perspective about perception and ND being THE team that everybody wants to play and find out just how good they are. I appreciate your input, as they are thoughtful and intelligent. You're absolutely right that ND has gone from a team that hopes to win instead of expects to win. It's been about 20 years of this. I'm a relatively young ND fan who has never seen ND win a major bowl game. Or at least not one that I can remember. Now that I think about it, I can remember as a young boy watching ND playing FSU in the 1996 Orange Bowl and my dad absolutely going crazy and cursing at the TV. Being raised in a Catholic home, I started to say prayers for ND to win, so my dad could be happy. Unfortunately, my prayers didn't work(Sorry Irish fans). Fast forward to 2016 ND v. OSU my dad barely even cursed or shouted at the TV. I was doing that more than he was. It's as if my dad resigned to the fact that ND is not what it used to be. As I write this, it saddens me to see how much ND has changed for the worse. I know it's just football, but like many others I'm so emotionally invested in this. Regardless, my dad and I will still be rooting for ND and watching every game till we die.Good question. The five year mark I was going to put into words a few posts ago so I admire your Dad's thoughts on that.
My threshold is being competitive again with the elite programs. Example...
If you are Wisconsin and fans...and you are playing Alabama...you know even though it's an early regular season game it's the benchmark team. How you do is the measuring stick. Alabama knows everyone gets their best shot. Teams are in awe of them now. That used to be us.
We used to be that measuring stick to every team we played. It was their huge game because we were bigger, badder, had the confidence, faster...the reputation and tradition.
I know we can't win a title every year but we can get back to that elite teams of all teams level. That is my threshold. Not championships but rather perception. I know they go hand in hand and titles would happen. I also know we won't win every BIG game...but we should win more big games than we lose.
Ohio state going into our game was bearing the ND of old reputation. We're supposed to be here....we're going to whip you...because we know we can and we will.
We played like a team in awe of OSU. It should be the other way around. That is my threshold.
Can this happen under Kelly? I don't know. This is year 7 coming up. If you want to be technical this is year 3 with Kelly recruited players and his schemes. That is me really stretching to give him the benefit of the doubt.
Is he going to get our team to that level I speak of? If he was unfortunately I believe he would have by now.
His team this year was by far the most talented on offense. I think this coming season needs to be the moment of truth time.
Now that I think about it, I can remember as a young boy watching ND playing FSU in the 1996 Orange Bowl and my dad absolutely going crazy and cursing at the TV.
I shared an accurate account of kelly vs Shaw.
Finally cvgr presents some facts. However, once again he ignored his homework assignment and SELECTIVELY chosen 1 coach to argue his point. I am still waiting for the full analysis of Power5 coaches.
I will freely admit Shaw has a better resume in the time frame above, but he did have this guy named Andrew Luck in his first year, and has been blessed with a 4 year starter in Hogan since then. That kind of stacks the deck a bit! Since arriving, Kelly has gone through Crist (starter injured early), Reese, Golson (then suspended), Reese, Golson (then transferred), Zaire (starter injured early) and Kizer. Due to no fault of his own, Kelly has been absolutely snake-bitten at QB. Do you realize how much you lose when your starter groomed all off-season goes down in week 1 or 2? That happened to Kelly TWICE! My point is that I see no true indicator that Shaw is a better coach than Kelly.
Are you proposing firing Kelly and trying to lure Shaw? If so, good luck.
As to another point above by SDtT. I would agree that my biggest beef with Kelly is his motivational style. We have been HIGHLY exposed to behind the scenes ND football, and I think we all know what he is. Kelly is a CEO. Very business-like. Unfortunately, this is probably not his choosing. The COMPLETELY RIDICULOUS, UNFAIR CHARACTERIZATIONS AND MEDIA COVERAGE in his first couple seasons on the sidelines forced him to take on a careful, reserved public persona. Have you ever seen so much coverage of a coach yelling at a player? When Kelly does it, he's a bad person. When Saban does it, he's a great coach. cgvr still brings it up as a weak "fact" to argue his even weaker point.
I'll say this, a great motivator can absolutely elevate his team win a game they have no business winning. However, they never last long-term. Dabo Sweeney is the flavor of the month. He dances, he hangs out, he's the cool players' coach. That goes off great when you win. When Clemson hits a rough patch, wait and see how well that plays in SC. That's the quickest way to the exit door. Even Holtz's act, whom I consider the best motivational coach I have ever known, grew tired at the end of his time at ND. He had some tricks moving to SC, but it wore out quickly.
I think Kelly has a bright future. Establish a QB (Kizer). Stop worrying about the media (like Saban), and realize they hate you and will criticize you no matter what. Unless you win!!! Saban was the most hated coach in America in 2007 when he fled the Dolphins and joined LSU's arch-rival Alabama. In his first year at Bama, he lost at home to Louisiana-Monroe. Then he decided to say f- it, and did it his way. Kelly should do the same and embrace the hate. Get more fiery and it will spread to his players.
We're 6 years in. We've about to wrap up 4 straight elite recruiting classes. We have a deep depth chart and stability for the next 2 years, without a doubt. I think with just a little self-examination, Kelly will earn his statue outside a stadium gate in the next 4 years.
The one thing that you left out was that David Shaw inherited a program that had just gone 12-1, and had won the Orange Bowl. Kelly had inherited a program with tremendous flaws. Not quite a fair comparison.