A winning program in 2016 and beyond

[88ND]

Question...Can a Brian Kelly team and philosophy consistently win at this level? Can they dominate year in and year out?

Please know I'm using the word win as in contend for a playoff spot which would mean a perennial top 4 team.

The good with Brian Kelly...just because he landed the ND job did not mean you quit working hard to get talent. He does work hard on the recruiting trail. He goes to the powers that be and lobbies for better respources, etc.

In this regard I like this version of the Brian Kelly. His play design and play calling (outside the redzone) is mostly spot on. Seldom is there ever a play when someone is not open in his offense. Not just a flare pass but a big chunk play seems to always be there. The execution can be spotty at times but the play design itself is great.

Having said the above this is a double edged sword. The philosophy is a problem. The zone read, spread hurry up offense has taken over college football. At any given time someone can score SOME points on anyone no matter a #1 ranked defense or not. The gigantic problem with this is it kills your very own defense.

The irony of scoring so quickly in the end hurts more than it helps. Let's say we had the greatest defensive coordinator and the best defensive players to ever play in the NCAA..the greatest tacklers.....they begin to look a little pedestrian in the third quarter onward. Why? Well after they get a nice stop, their offense just had a 47 second scoring drive and right back out the defense has to go. Envision this happening more times than not. What you have is an exhausted defense come fourth quarter that can't stop anyone regardless of talent.

Before you selective readers go ape shit and say there were many other reasons why our defense sucked...think about what I'm saying. Also see why the Big 12 gets little respect because defense is optional with them. Gary Patterson's defenses used to be right up there near the top every year. What happened? Well he jumped ship, got on the trendy zone read hurry up offense and now his defenses give up massive points because just like most other big 12 school they are exhausted.

Sure sometimes the football gods are nice to you and you get all the breaks in a season by that is being more lucky than good. I believe you make your own luck and this type of offensive philosophy makes it very difficult to be better than luck over the course of the season. Particularly in big bowl games when teams can really study you and get healthy...

Ever since the zone read has become the norm in college football (10 years or so) the champions and dominant teams almost always exclusively are NOT running this type of offensive philosophy.

The trendy hurry up no huddle zone read pass happy offenses will get you really close but win it all? No way. Not on a consistent basis. There have been a few expections...but they are because of one freak athlete rather than the type of offense. Cam Newton and Vince Young could fall into the exceptions here.

Alabama? Year in year out they are THE TEAM. They run a conventional pro style offense. Ball control, wear you out imposing their will on you. A 4 minute scoring drive opposed to a 40 second scoring drive has served them quite well, no?
Urban Meyer teams...
he loves the zone read but his zone read is not a fancy ticky tacky offense. No no...he is a power running brute force offensive team. Another team that imposes its will and controls the clock. Meyers QB's can't throw very well but they are essentially another power running back.

So over the last ten years when the zone read has become commonplace the teams that have won the championships are NOT the teams that score touch downs under a minute.

The hurry up score quickly offenses can get you real close but they will never be able to close the show and win a championship as long as there are still some proud football programs that use ball control and run a conventional attack.

Stanford yearly is very strong. Power football team that uses a full back..god forbid.

Again every team can have that lucky year but contending for a final four spot type of dominance year in year out are not the pretty trendy score quickly offenses. No. It is the pull your sleeves up impose your will type of teams that will continue to be near the top.

The hurry up pretty offenses will get close and in some years with a special player will get VERY close but year in year out it's still old school power football that reigns supreme.

 

[Granite45]

Question...Can a Brian Kelly team and philosophy consistently win at this level? Can they dominate year in and year out?

Please know I'm using the word win as in contend for a playoff spot which would mean a perennial top 4 team.

Do you consider the results of Ohio State as contending? They did not make the playoff this, did not even make their conference championship game is it seems OSU did not contend this year according to your criterion.

Notre Dame does not have the option of a conference championship so their route would have to be slightly with some arguing it would be more difficult if the committee is biased toward conference champions.

I do tend to believe there is a bias toward conference champions so I am not confident that any independent team, ND or any other, will consistently overcome that issue.

 

[88ND]

Do you consider the results of Ohio State as contending? They did not make the playoff this, did not even make their conference championship game is it seems OSU did not contend this year according to your criterion.

Notre Dame does not have the option of a conference championship so their route would have to be slightly with some arguing it would be more difficult if the committee is biased toward conference champions.

I do tend to believe there is a bias toward conference champions so I am not confident that any independent team, ND or any other, will consistently overcome that issue.

Being technical about it is not what I mean. Tongue in cheek...Sure OSU did not make the playoffs because they were a victim of loss timing and the conference championship game. Until the playoff number expands this will happen at times. Such is life.
But the playoff is now two years old..one in which OSU made and won the title and the other didn't make as being the victim of loss timing/conference standings. Everyone knows how strong they are. Let's say they lost to MSU the same week as Oklahoma lost to Texas. OSU probably gets the nod and still gets in.

Clemson might beat Alabama but there is no mistaking that over the last 4 years the two most dominant programs in all the land was OSU and Alabama. Both teams that run old school conventional type power offenses. They keep the ball, own the clock..you can't score because they have the ball. They tire your defense out. You might get it back and score quickly to tie the game but now your defense comes right back out for another long scoring power football drive. Eventually by the middle of the third quarter on your defense is worn out, theirs has been rested ...and the wins just pile up.

I don't particularly care for Saban or Meyer but I do admire how they stay the course of the simple principles of winning football. Run the ball, pass when needed, own the clock and keep the defense rested. Impose your physical will onto the other team and the win the game. Over and over.

Unless there is a blowout in the title game OSU is going to finish third in the final poll and possibly #2.

Winning it all and finishing in the top 3 the next year ...all with missing the playoff on that late loss...I would consider them to be a dominant contending team.